Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz Twitter profile

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Liviu Horovitz

2 months

So simple and melodic, who wouldn't want to learn German? Well, if you wouldn't, @SuhBetty and I have you covered with the English version of our @SWP_IntSecurity #STAND Comment on a Trump II presidency & expectations for US nuclear assurances in the Indo-Pacific.

SWP Berlin

@SWPBerlin

2 months

Australia, Japan and South Korea are not worried about US nuclear assurances under a Trump presidency. In their SWP Comment, @liviuhorovitz and @SuhBetty @SWP_IntSecurity explain why this is the case and what it means for Europe.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

If frightening the bejesus out of people leads to more thinking, fine, but the evidence from Russia’s war against Ukraine does not support these conjectures. While @FRHoffmann1 bottom line is probably correct, I’d wager the Russia problem is about recklessness, not resolve. [1/9]

Fabian Hoffmann

@FRHoffmann1

9 months

In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Neither strategic ambiguity (Western troops may eventually fight in Ukraine) nor clear red lines (never, never, never, I promise) involve free meals - despite the many claims to the contrary here on Twitter. A few observations with my cold morning coffee☕️ & some questions❓.1/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Bottom line: Yes, NATO must credibly deny Russia the ability to seize significant territory or attack critical infrastructure. But not because of a gap in resolve, but because once again betting that Putin "can't be that crazy" seems like a very dangerous proposition. [9/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Meine zwei Cent im Gespräch mit @BelojaKatja von @ZDFheute zu der Idee eines europäischen Nukleararsenals: Es wäre vielleicht smarter, sich mehr Gedanken über konventionelle Mängel zu machen und nukleare Märchen erst einmal zu vertagen.

Trumps Nato-Drohung: Wie realistisch ist eine Atommacht EU?

Verliert Europa bei einer Trump-Wahl den nuklearen US-Schutz? Wie Sicherheitsexperte Horovitz die Diskussion um EU-Atomwaffen einschätzt.

www.zdf.de

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Bottom line: Either I'm missing something (which is likely, not only because of cold coffee), or this is (once again) useless European bickering & tinkering instead of dropping useless posturing & annoying public lamenting, and pushing together for a more palatable outcome.10/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Professional update: Happy to start a research position @SWPBerlin , working again on #nuclearpolicy . Fewer dusty archives, more policy engagement - win some, lose some 🤣. Looking forward to learning from a great team @SWP_IntSecurity !

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

But it’s not all roses🌹! Most experts agreed Russia could not take Ukraine. The empirical test shows that Russia indeed cannot take Ukraine. But Putin decided to do try nonetheless. Hence, Moscow is not more resolved than NATO. It is merely significantly more reckless! [7/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Recklessness looks scarier up close than it does from a distance. It would be Eastern Europeans lands that Putin would try to invade. No, he’d probably not be able to keep them forever. But even when he’d fail & NATO would succeed, who wants their cities bombed to rubble? [8/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Russia’s nuclear innuendo probably led to Western salami-tactics – slower and fewer deliveries – but nobody folded. Assuming Ukraine is worth more to Russia than Estonia & Estonia worth more to West than Ukraine, why should we expect such tactics to work against NATO? [4/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

There is no evidence that the ongoing war taught Moscow that the West lacks resolve. Yes, the war revealed stakes & contradictions. No, the West did not run for the hills: It provided military & financial assistance to Ukraine & imposed sanctions against Russia. [3/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Conventional & nuclear de-escalation strikes & aggressive sanctuarization failed in the war against Ukraine. No reason to believe it would work against NATO. Yes, it's been discussed, both in Russia & abroad. Yes, Russia may try them. No, it's not what keeps me up at night. [2/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Our updated nuclear chronology is now online🎉! Throughout 2022, with @annac_arndt , we traced Russia’s🇷🇺 nuclear rhetoric💣 & the reactions of the West. Thanks to all @SWPBerlin & especially within @SWP_IntSecurity #STAND who helped! Hopefully useful. []

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Some counterfactuals: If we’re that un-resolved, why did this not happen already? Why not threaten nuclear Armageddon today & subjugate all of Europe? And can military capabilities replace such a complete lack of resolve? Would we even fight? BOTH force AND resolve needed. [6/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

German red lines are understandable. But: Once you draw them, you need to make damn sure you win fair & square within their boundaries. Taurus, whatever, but the West is NOT giving Ukraine enough to put it in a position to obtain a compromise the West itself would like.9/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Russia’s attempts to “sanctuarize” annexed Ukrainian provinces did not work – Kyiv ignored them & Washington (even Beijing) pushed back. If this failed where hopes of taking back territory were small, why would they succeed where NATO certainly has conventional superiority? [5/9]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

For evidence on Western "salami tactics," our #STAND @SWP_IntSecurity chronology should be a good starting point. [] [BONUS #1 ]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Done!🤓 Our updated chronology of Russian🇷🇺nuclear rhetoric is online - your one-stop-shop📕 to find out who said what when. Thanks to @MarthaStolze , the colleagues @SWP_IntSecurity & @SWPBerlin and our #STAND team. Grateful if you can retweet & spread the word!

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

1 year

Nuclear rhetoric tracker: A new version of our #STAND chronology of #nuclear threats is out. @liviuhorovitz & @MarthaStolze have been tracing&coding all developments between Feb&June '23. It now covers 1.5 years of nuclear rhetoric in🇷🇺‘s war against🇺🇦! 👀

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Even moderately credible ambiguity is likely to create domestic expectations and pressures that tie the hands of leaders and make it more likely that the "ambiguous" outcome will ultimately occur. That's why you'd use it in the first place to put pressure on the adversary.2/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

In the real world, everyone seems to be acting accordingly: Nuclear France wants ambiguity, even if its conventional capabilities give little plausibility to direct intervention. Non-nuclear Germany wants red lines, though it's unclear why it has to draw them so clumsily.6/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Time to brush up on the differences between coups, putsches, and insurrections this morning. Or just grab more popcorn 🍿.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Theory out, cluelessness in: From the shadow of their nuclear submarines, the French can play hardball. But they cannot & will not play alone. How did anyone in Paris think Germans & others would join in ambiguity, shielded only by the extended US nuclear deterrent? Beats me.8/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

10 months

Deutsche Kommentatoren & Politiker sehen Atomwaffen als Wundermittel für Sicherheitsprobleme - Bombe basteln & alles paletti, strategische Herausforderungen vergessen, weiterschlafen. @ClaudMajor & ich versuchen hier, dieser Weihnachtsgeschichte mit etwas Humor zu begegnen.

Claudia Major

@ClaudMajor

10 months

Immer wieder ruft ein Kolumnist nach der deutschen Atombombe. Aber Wiederholung macht es nicht richtiger. Deshalb erklären @liviuhorovitz & ich hier 👇 warum eine deutsche Atombombe eine teure, gefährliche und antieuropäische Fehlentscheidung wäre.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

@SWP_IntSecurity For Russia's failed attempt to coerce Ukraine, you could read our paper @TWQgw with @ProfOnderco and Anna Arndt. [] [BONUS #2 ]

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

The Russian leadership, as it has done since February 2022, quickly utters nuclear deterrent threats: If the West sends troops to Ukraine, Putin knows he'd lose, so he promises to escalate the crisis to the nuclear level and use long-range assets to attack Western territory.7/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Faced with ambiguity, the opponent is uncertain whether victory in the theater will attract a more powerful force - so it's reasonable to keep some forces in reserve & consider some compromise to avoid potential defeat at the hands of the superior intervener - or so the hope.3/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Red lines are not magic either: You may be signaling that you want to fight below a certain threshold, but that ties your hands with your audience and tells your opponent that if they go above that line (assuming they can), you fold.5/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

But the adversary is not passive. It now has a huge incentive to remove (some of) the ambiguity in order to untie the other side's domestic hands, reduce the likelihood of the unwanted event, and gain freedom of movement to settle the theater dispute on its own terms.4/10

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

4 years

Nothing to read with your Monday morning coffee? Elias Götz & I, we’re thrilled that @jststs published our article on why, during ‘91-‘92, George H.W. Bush officials wanted NATO enlargement. Some free copies here , but let me know if this does not work. 1/5

The overlooked importance of economics: why the Bush Administration wanted NATO enlargement

This paper shows that, during 1991–1992, the George H.W. Bush Administration settled to pursue NATO enlargement in order to ensure both stability in and influence over Europe. Both were necessary s...

www.tandfonline.com

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

@FRHoffmann1 Thank you for the original post. It literally kept me up at night, and there's nothing better than that in terms of intellectual engagement!

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

7 years

President Reagan “would not have had the intellect, the mental and physical stamina or the managerial ability to take real charge in a real crisis,” the UK envoy to the US wrote in November 1988. “We are lucky to have been at peace.” Wondering what diplomats report today. #POTUS

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Telling many relatives & friends in Romania 🇷🇴 that it’s all going to be all right - for them - is made way, way easier by NATO membership. Thanks to those Central & Eastern Europeans leaders who were “obsessed” and “neurotic” about the bear 🐻 in the 1990s!

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

@FRHoffmann1 @DasErste Welcome to my world: I have a list of "archival research projects to do in retirement to hopefully better understand what was going on when I was (moderately) young :)."

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Twitter's on fire re the NATO-no-enlargement-promises & I am a bit confused. Is IR anarchic & states pursue interests? Or is this lovey-dovey LaLa-land, with good guys never breaking promises? And with broken promises causing broken hearts, which leads to eternal conflict? 1/x

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Moskau redet viel über Atomwaffen, nie da gewesene Konsequenzen & blitzschnelle Vergeltungsschläge. Aber was sagt der Kreml genau & wie hat der Westen geantwortet? @annac_arndt & ich, wir haben ein @SWP_IntSecurity #STAND Arbeitspapier dazu geschrieben 👉

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

The “Russia's nuclear threats” discussion is polarized between insomniacs and heroes. Here are my 2 cents for my 5 readers. My bottom line: No, we will not die today or tomorrow. Yes, we might, in fact, die later. A thread 🧵 to aid your good mood this Monday. 1/13

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Glad to see this out! Thanks to @ProfOnderco for the collaboration & to the folks @WarOnTheRocks for the great suggestions & for helping 'translate' our rather geeky prose for less dorky readers 🤓. Hope all seven of you out there have fun reading it 😅.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Our new team is now Twitter-official 🤓.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

3 years

Want to better underSTAND our increasingly complex security environment? We are thrilled to welcome our new team in the “Strategic Threat Analysis and Nuclear (Dis-)Order” (STAND) project.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Ein “Atomkrieg” ist unwahrscheinlich - ob Deutschland der #Ukraine 100 #Marder schickt oder nicht. Meine bescheidenen zwei Cent: Beide Seiten dieser Debatte würden sich - und uns allen - ein Gefallen tun, wenn sie diese Nuklearkulisse weniger bemühen würden. 1/3

maybrit illner

@maybritillner

2 years

. @RKiesewetter : Ich glaube, der #Atomkrieg ist wahrscheinlicher, wenn wir der #Ukraine nicht helfen. #Waffenlieferungen #schwereWaffen #Scholz #Russland #Putin #illner

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

After Trump’s “whatever the hell they want” fire & fury comments, it’s been Nuclear Bingo Week in Germany: Politicians from left to right shared views, so here is a quick review - my comments at the end. Bottom line: The devil👿 is in the details. 1/15

Trump says he'd 'encourage' Russia 'to do whatever the hell they want' if a NATO country didn't...

Donald Trump said he wouldn't protect a NATO nation that didn't contribute enough defense funds and he'd "encourage" Russia "to do whatever the hell they want."

abcnews.go.com

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Unsere 100-seitige Nuklear-Chronologie war lang - auch mit ganz viel 🍷 oder 🍻. Darum haben @annac_arndt & ich auf 4 Seiten zusammengefasst, was wir gelernt haben. Die kann man gut mit nur einem 🍹 oder 🍸 lesen.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

2 years

Was bezweckt 🇷🇺Moskau mit seinen #Nukleardrohungen ? Eine Analyse von knapp 100 nuklearbezogenen Aussagen & Handlungen (📖) legt eine dreigleisige Strategie nahe, so @liviuhorovitz & @annac_arndt von #STAND in ihrem SWP-Aktuell 👉

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Everybody should of course learn German🇩🇪 - I hear it's totally an easy language🤓. But if you lack those few days needed, here 👇 we translated the graph & the key data points from our recent working paper on nuclear escalation dynamics in the war against Ukraine.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

2 years

How did the #nuclear escalation dynamics between Russia and the West evolve during the first two months of the war against Ukraine? Here is a visualisation from the new working paper (in German) of our #STAND team by @annac_arndt & @liviuhorovitz .👉 (1/6)

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Here my not-cold-but-not-piping-hot take on nuclear policy in Germany’s🇩🇪 National Security Strategy: A strong statement on nuclear deterrence, but otherwise not too bold. Drafters should still be complimented for the compromise within the complicated German machinery.1/15

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

10 months

Wer nach der Weihnachtsgans noch mehr Argumente gegen eine deutsche Bombe braucht, wird auch hier gut bedient - aus einer anderen Denkrichtung, aber mit ähnlicher Bottom Line.

Oliver Meier @olivermeier.bsky.social

@meier_oliver

10 months

1/ Markus Kaim @SWPBerlin plädiert im @derspiegel für deutsche Atomwaffen, mit denen Berlin "Nukleargarantien für Staaten Mittelosteuropas" geben kann. Kaim überhöht Vorteile und ignoriert Kosten und Risiken eines solchen Schritts. Einige Anmerkungen: 2/

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

Fascinating indeed that Macron continuously reiterates - and specifies ("partially European"). Before all of Berlin again argues Paris should replace Washington's nuclear guarantees, I'd immodestly suggest reading what @lydiawachs & I found last year . 1/2

Camille Grand

@camille_grand

9 months

One point to add to @Mathieu_Droin excellent summary, responding to a question about the European dimension of the French nuclear deterrent @EmmanuelMacron stated “our vital interests are partially European, and it does give us a special responsibility”

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

7 months

Have you considered the possibility that, as unfortunate as this might be, international politics might not function according to your theory of action? 😱

Fabian Hoffmann

@FRHoffmann1

7 months

What the actual fuck is wrong with people?

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

@jana_puglierin @ConStelz „Es tut mir so leid, ich wäre Ihnen enorm verbunden, wenn ich das Memo fertig schreiben könnte. Es erklärt für den Kanzler wie wir einem Nuklearschlag entgehen können. Ich befürchte die Situation ist dramatisch - ihre große Hilfe könnte Millionen das Leben retten. Gar die Welt!“

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Tweets by political scientists & think tankers suggest an inverse correlation between the quality of scholarship and posted photos of meals. I hereby wish to reinforce this inverse correlation & wish you all Happy New Years!

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

By popular demand, here is our attempt at #STAND to keep you updated on what goes into our nuclear ☢️ rhetoric chronology in Russia’s war against Ukraine in between the formal releases every 6 months. 👇

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

2 years

As our STAND colleagues @liviuhorovitz & @MarthaStolze update their chronology of nuclear threats in Russia’s war against Ukraine (), we’ll share here the newest developments – so that you don’t have to wait until the next update is out.(1/7) 👇👇

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

@FRHoffmann1 I couldn't agree more with this post🤓. Although our different paths do lead to somewhat different policies NATO should privilege - assuming no endless resources😀: Your path goes more towards strategic deterrence. Mine is more toward defense at the edge of the Western realm.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

I learned a lot & would highly recommend this program - especially to political scientists interested in more than just summarizing historians‘ work and calling that „case studies“ 😋.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Are optimists like me underestimating the danger of nuclear escalation? What if @DrRadchenko is right? If Putin thinks “losing” means regime change, will he use nuclear weapons? I’m also not sure & I spent fewer years studying 🤓, but here are my two (or 11) optimistic cents.1/11

Sergey Radchenko

@DrRadchenko

2 years

Consider, for example, the article @CampbellCraig1 and I wrote a few years ago for @jststs , titled juicily "MAD, not Marx: Khrushchev and the nuclear revolution." The article was about, you guessed it, the Cuban Missile Crisis. Here's the link: .

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

To all of us reading this in the warmth of our cozy and free lives, may we somehow find such strength of character and courage as this mother of two if the time comes.

max seddon

@maxseddon

3 years

A woman burst onto Russia’s main live evening newscast today with a sign that says: “Stop the war Don’t believe propaganda They’re lying to you” And chanting: “Stop the war! No to war!”

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

10 months

Looking forward to new & interesting projects with familiar & fresh colleagues (not calling anybody old here, yes?! 🤓) @_jonasschneider @ClaudMajor @SuhBetty & @CarinaMatvienko at @SWP_IntSecurity & @SWPBerlin to try to better underSTAND nuclear policy challenges! Wish us luck.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

10 months

📢 #STAND is back w/ familiar faces @_jonasschneider & @liviuhorovitz + #newfaces : @SuhBetty as Associate & @CarinaMatvienko as Research Assistant 🎊 💡stay tuned for our #underSTAND newsletter + research on strategic threats🚀& #nuclear issues in #Europe & #IndoPacific 🗺️

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

What a day! Between the most explicit Biden Administration statement to date on why alliances are crucial for our way of life & the Putin regime murdering its main political opponent, hopefully more folks got the hang of what’s at stake. #MSC2024

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

10 months

Ja im Grundsatz, nur "reine Phantasie" klingt nach Denkverbot, was illusorischen Vorschlägen Tür & Tor öffnet. Viel sinnvoller ist eine ernsthafte Auseinandersetzung mit Möglichkeiten, Kosten & Grenzen der europäischen Nuklearoptionen, um die US Alternative besser zu verstehen.

Ulrich Speck

@ulrichspeck

10 months

Deutsche Nuklearbewaffnung derzeit kontraproduktiv, richtig. Aber die "europäischen Ansätze" ("Ausweitung der französischen und britischen Nuklearrolle, oder in einem europäischen Projekt") sind reine Fantasie, Abschreckungswert gegenüber Russland gleich null.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

10 months

Really? @lufthansa is cancelling flights literally minutes before departure & you’ve got thousands of people stranded with little kids in some airport before the holidays. And you folks have the audacity to express wishes? Great PR! Almost as good as your services!

Lufthansa News

@lufthansaNews

10 months

The @lufthansaNews Team wishes you and your loved ones happy holidays! 🎄

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Looks like I need to urgently find another person to follow 😅.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Only in academia is one beyond thrilled about an email that has an unknown R2 saying that the product of two years of toiling "needs some more work but potentially quite publishable" 🤓.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

One of the first non-zoom meetings I’m attending after, literally, years. No turning off the camera or listening while jogging at these ones 🤣, but actually meeting people in person pays for it all.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Me confused: Yes, Western officials made promises. Yes, they broke them. Because they could & because situation had changed. Why are we so surprised? Because our “good guys" are always nice? I don’t remember taking this IR class... but who knows!? 5/x

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Many thanks from us at #STAND @SWP_IntSecurity to twitterless Emmanuelle Maitre from @FRS_org for engaging with the research of @lydiawachs and I on France🇫🇷 & Euro deterrence! Her piece expertly details Paris' views - definitely worth brushing up on your language skills.

Le Rubicon

@LeRubicon_org

1 year

Un « parapluie nucléaire » français : A propos du rapport de la SWP. Retrouvez l’article d’Emmanuelle Maître, chargée de recherche à la Fondation pour la recherche stratégique ( @FRS_org ), sur le #LeRubicon

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

5 years

@M__Verbruggen Turn off the news, take a long bath, and watch West Wing. All seasons, one season a day. By the time you’re done, the flu will have magically disappeared. I’ve got experimental data on this, even though only with an N of one.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

6 years

This “defending” business is hard work! Not sure whether I am so tired because of the great discussion or the countless subsequent drinks? I guess both are necessary conditions ;))

CSS at ETH Zurich

@CSS_ETHZurich

6 years

We would like to congratulate @liviuhorovitz on successfully defending his PhD thesis on “Guns, Butter, and Votes: A Theory of American Military Primacy” and wish him all the best at @SAISHopkins . @FPI_SAIS @KissingerCenter

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Diese Aussagen müssen empirisch getestet werden! Wer hat Interesse zu überprüfen ob @annac_arndt doch zu nett ist & dabei mit uns ( @lydiawachs , @_jonasschneider , @ClaudMajor & ich) zusammen zu arbeiten? Wer weiss, vieleicht sind wir noch nerdiger als sie uns beschreibt? 🤓🤣

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

#solepurpose on your mind, now and for the next few decades 🤓? Check out our #STAND team’s backgrounder on who said what since the '50s, with @annac_arndt & @lydiawachs cc: @ajmount @heatherwilly @ATJMattelaer @SuhBetty @james_acton32 @Cirincione @Matt_Costlow @SokovNikolai

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

3 years

Today @WhiteHouse will debate various options for 🇺🇸US declaratory nuclear policy, reports @Dimi @ft . Our #STAND team’s @annac_arndt , @liviuhorovitz & @lydiawachs review the long-standing debate on #NFU & #solepurpose from the 1950s to the #Twitter age. 👉

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Me more confused: Yes, the Russian government is unhappy that influence in Eastern Europe is curtailed by NATO membership. But are “bad relations” a consequence of “broken promises?” Why? Would Putin be "nicer" if Kremlin influence stretched to the German border? 6/x

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

6 years

Best book acknowledgements I’ve ever read.

Sian Troath

@sian_troath

6 years

Why I always read book acknowledgements 😂

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

6 years

"Intelligence sources had proved remarkably effective in detecting the presence of chemical weapons," Shultz told Thatcher 30 years ago. "The real problem was not detection, bu the lack of willingness on the part of Governments to condemn the use of such weapons." #archives

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

5 years

I'm pretty sure I can compete for the slowest-book-review-writer title. But I finally managed to say something about @jeffreyaengel 's excellent book "When the World Seemed New" in @coldwarhistoryj - my political-scientist-take here

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Our #STAND @SWP_IntSecurity team will "thread" regularly on all things #nuclear , deterrence & European threat environment - here our first installment. We'll try to highlight 🇩🇪German nuclear news & other outSTANDing items🤓.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

3 years

1/ Allied views on 🇺🇸US nuclear policy, #nuclear issues in the🚦“traffic light” coalition negotiations & states' interests in #armscontrol : our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement).

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

„Russland wäre bereit […] weiter zu eskalieren, mit dem Einsatz von Nuklearwaffen als maximale Stufe.“ Hat @JohannesVarwick mit Putin telefoniert? Wie „weiß“ er das? Wo ist die wissenschaftliche Grundlage solcher Aussagen? Bin für Kröte 🐸 schlucken & Nuklearstrategie lesen.

Johannes Varwick

@JohannesVarwick

3 years

„Wir müssen unseren moralischen Kompass mit den realpolitischen Möglichkeiten abgleichen. Dabei werden wir manche Kröte schlucken müssen, aber besser ist als ein eskalierender Krieg“. Interview in der Südwest-Presse u.a. 👇

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

When Putin said nuclear “precedent,” he did not say the US used nukes, so we can do it too; instead, he said the Americans bad guys did such things, implying that the good Russians would never do the same. Which says little about what Putin will do - but a threat this is not.

Konstantin Kisin

@KonstantinKisin

2 years

We remember this. We didn't forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it's the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

8 months

Vielleicht bin ich ein geborener Optimist, aber meine Prognose für @JoernKiessler bei @WDRaktuell ist, dass die USA auch unter Trump die erweiterte nukleare Abschreckung nicht aufgibt. Auf eine empirische Überprüfung würde ich aber gerne verzichten 😂.

Nach Trump-Aussage: Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine EU-Atombombe?

Die Aussage von US-Präsidentschaftkandidat Donald Trump, Nato-Partner unter bestimmten Bedingungen im Kriegsfall nicht beizustehen, hat die Diskussion um EU-Atomwaffen angestoßen. Wie wahrscheinlich...

www1.wdr.de

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

You cannot simultaneously eat ice cream and think about war. We call on @benandjerrys to abstain from writing about war and work on the ice cream. This way, the world might at least have another moderately delicious cold sugary dessert, instead of another bit of gibberish.

Ben & Jerry's

@benandjerrys

3 years

You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war. We call on President Biden to de-escalate tensions and work for peace rather than prepare for war. Sending thousands more US troops to Europe in response to Russia’s threats against Ukraine only fans the flame of war.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Final confusion: Yes, liberal Russian elites told Western partners enlargement was making their life harder. But would they have prevailed in domestic contest if only NATO would not have expanded? Really? 7/END []

‘Nothing but humiliation for Russia’: Moscow and NATO’s eastern enlargement, 1993-1995

This article recounts Russia’s response to NATO’s eastern enlargement. It argues that NATO enlargement was seen as perfectly acceptable in Moscow, as long as it was inclusive of Russia, which would...

www.tandfonline.com

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

@drfranksauer @shashj @DrRadchenko @SWP_IntSecurity @lydiawachs @Sicherheitspod Thanks @drfranksauer ! Just a heads-up: We’ll have a working paper reviewing Russia’s nuclear narratives out next Monday & a short analysis a week or two later. Whoever reads through the entire (very long, very much for the brave) working paper can drop by for a coffee 🤣.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Given available scholarship, it’s rather saucy to claim that Western leaders did not dangle promises to Soviet leaders not to expand NATO to get them to accept German unified within NATO. And yes, promises are promises - they are not treaties. 2/x []

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

10 months

@BrunoTertrais @ClaudMajor @BrunoTertrais thinks the horse is dead. @ClaudMajor and I, we wish it was dead. But the zombie horse never fails to return, either accompanying Christmas carols or together with the summer heat.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

7 months

Four days to eat chocolate & hunt eggs? We're afraid you'll finally get through all those tabs, so here is more to read from us @SWP_IntSecurity #STAND .

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

7 months

Developments in🇯🇵,🇰🇷,🇰🇵, and🇬🇧, intrawar deterrence in 🇺🇦, 🇷🇺’s disinterest in arms control, a nuclear escalation scenario, multilateral arms control & 🇫🇷 nuclear deterrent in our weekly regular newsletter on recent news&analysis to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence & #threats 1/10.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

7 months

An excellent essay for your weekend cappuccino - with very small two cents from me and much smarter thoughts from wiser folks. Goes well with a drink 🥃 too🤓.

Yaroslav Trofimov

@yarotrof

7 months

Can French and British nuclear weapons protect Europe from Russia? The prospect of American extended nuclear deterrence crumbling under a second Trump presidency pushes alarmed Europeans to explore new security paradigms. My @WSJ Review cover essay.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Come work with @_jonasschneider & me. And with the great colleagues @SWP_IntSecurity .

SWP Berlin

@SWPBerlin

1 year

Wir suchen eine Forschungsassistenz (d/m/w)! Sie haben Ihr Studium der Politik-, Wirtschafts- oder Sozialwissenschaften absolviert und bringen weitreichende Kenntnisse im Bereich Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik mit? Bewerben Sie sich bis 03.09.! 👇

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Great to be @Hertie_Security to discuss new research on nuclear policy - no better way (for dorks 🤓) to spend a gorgeous summer day! Hence, a big thank you for the invitation.

Centre for International Security - Hertie School

@Hertie_Security

1 year

The first panel of our @Hertie_Security Nuclear Security Workshop is underway! We begin by focusing on "German Nuclear Strategy and Decision-Making" with presentations by @ProfOnderco , @EmileLDes followed by @LutschAndreas and @TobiasBunde . #nuclear #security

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Western policymakers were worried about impact on Russia & sought to attenuate the blow, but (a) decided intra-Western dynamics were more important & (b) assessed that their NATO decision would not determine the future of relations with Russia. 4/x []

Horovitz - Great Prize But Not The Main Prize.pdf

drive.google.com

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Our nuclear "must reads" this week here @STAND @SWP_IntSecurity . Or you could enjoy the summer sun at the lake. Or, even better, read the pieces on our list while enjoying the summer sun at the lake 🤓.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

2 years

🇫🇮Finland & 🇸🇪Sweden’s requests to join NATO, 🇩🇪Germany’s role in a changed global order, 🇷🇺Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons & 🇺🇸US SLCM debate: our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement).(1/8)

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Oh, I see I have exactly 500 followers now. Poor souls. Nukes & archives, what could be more boring! I surely need to move from deterrence to acquisition, otherwise I'll need another 200+ years to crack the 10k 🤣.

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

It’s always great to be back @WiltonPark & it’s easier to discuss gloomy topics when the sun is shining like this.

Wilton Park

@WiltonPark

2 years

Our dialogue on strategic risk reduction starts today. A core group of NATO allies & partners will gather with senior non-governmental experts, to critically engage with strategic risk in the current international security environment. Find out more ⬇️

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

9 months

We here @SWP_IntSecurity #STAND suggest you close those hundreds of browser tabs from last year and replace them with our list. Who knows, maybe you'll read some of them too? The year is new, ambitions are high & our suggestions are, of course, outSTANDing 😀.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

9 months

Our first #STAND newsletter this year! European nuclear deterrence, new developments in Russia and China, as well as 2 scholarly pieces on Germany & nuclear policy in our regular weekly newsletter on recent news & analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence & #threats . (1/9)

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Want to learn about nuclear policy, meet a bunch of nerds and wonks, and evade from your two-year-zoom-room to go to Rome?

Thierry Tardy

@thierrytardy

3 years

Interested in #nuclear issues, #deterrence , and the role of #NATO in these fields? Do apply to the 4th Early-Career Nuclear Strategists' Workshop It is in Rome, in presence, in July!!

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

Liebe Frau @Dornblueth , danke für die Erwähnung & Empfehlung der @SWP_IntSecurity Chronologie der Russischen Nukleardrohungen gestern im @ARD_Presseclub . Gerade ist die neueste Version von @annac_arndt & mir vom #STAND Projekt (auf Englisch) erschienen 👉

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

A big thank you to @JimGoldgeier , @ALanoszka , @e_sarotte & Andrea Chiampan for thoughtful & insightful reviews! Grateful to the editors for the opportunity to take part in this @jststs special issue.

H-Diplo, with RJISSF

@HDiplo

3 years

Forum 32 on Special Issue: “NATO: Contested Histories and Future Directions.”

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

5 years

What did @foreignoffice diplomats think about German reunification in the 1980s? "Oh shnitzel," I argue in contribution [] to new volume ed. by @DanSHamilton & Kristina Spohr [], written as @DAAD_Germany fellow @FPI_SAIS @SAISHopkins

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

But Russia is playing with fire. Nuclear signalling should be a last-resort means of indicating high stakes. Given the weekly we-nuke-you-we-nuke-you-not, it might be hard to differentiate what is real & what is not down the line. I’m an optimist, but I get it if you’re not.11/11

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

2 years

My two cents💡 on a Sunday evening re Putin's statement that Russia🇷🇺 will deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

2 years

President Putin's announcement about tactical #nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus is "another attempt to frighten the West" said our researcher @liviuhorovitz on @DeutscheWelle . Click here for the full interview 👉⏯️

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Dark and grey outside, sitting by the fireside, a goblet with Glühwein in hand, or two or three goblets, and, obviously, our #STAND nuclear policy reading list. May the #Weihnachtsmann bring interesting presents!

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

3 years

@ABaerbock & nuclear disarmament; 🇺🇸US-🇷🇺Russia dialogue; command & control satellites; European Strategic Autonomy; 🇺🇸US Sole Purpose debate: our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement). (1/8)

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

5 years

Want to know what the US government thought about Central Europe at the beginning of the 1990s? And why the Bush41 Administration considered expanding NATO? Shameless self-promotion of contribution [] to a volume edited by @DanSHamilton & Kristina Spohr

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

1 year

Very glad to be in Brussels for this interesting discussion! Thank you @EU_NonProlif for the invitation!

EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

@EU_NonProlif

1 year

In first session of this Consultative Meeting 2023, experts discussed #Nuclear non-proliferation and #Military alliances in the context of the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 . With Wilfred Wan @SIPRIorg , @Cox_NukePol , @camille_grand , @PSinovets @odcnp and @liviuhorovitz

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Another 🧵 from our #STAND @SWP_IntSecurity team. Read with caution! 🤓

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

3 years

🚦Traffic light coalition negotiations; NATO #nuclearsharing & #TPNW ; 🇺🇸US nuclear policy, 🇨🇳China's capabilities & 🇪🇺EU #StrategicCompass : our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement). (1/7)

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Honest question: Any evidence that slashing scientific cooperation & isolating the citizenry in a totalitarian state in other ways can affect the outcome? I am all for sanctions & pressure, but I thought that the Cold War lesson on this was pretty clear. What am I missing?

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

Unsere zwei Pfennige zu den Herausforderungen der Nuklearen Ordnung. Und ich, am stottern, als ich gefragt werde, was meine Mutter über meine neue Beschäftigung denkt 🤓. Zum Glück retten @ClaudMajor @lydiawachs und @_jonasschneider doch den Tag 😀.

SWP Berlin

@SWPBerlin

3 years

Geostrategische Veränderungen und die verschärfte globale Sicherheitslage stellen Deutschland vor neue Herausforderungen. Das STAND Team @SWP_IntSecurity diskutiert über die aktuelle Bedrohungslage und die nukleare Ordnung im neuen SWP-Podcast. 👉

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Liviu Horovitz

@liviuhorovitz

3 years

For those brave & stubborn enough to face the wave of security articles this week, let us pile a few more onto your stack/tabs - the best ones, we promise! Oh, if you’re hoping your browser will crash & save you, yeah, you are not alone 🥳.

SWP International Security

@SWP_IntSecurity

3 years

🇺🇦Ukraine crisis, NATO’s next Strategic Concept, 🇺🇸US Nuclear Posture Review, 🇯🇵Japan & US missiles, and a 📺videocast on nuclear doctrine & law: our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement). (1/8)

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