Mathieu Droin @Mathieu_Droin Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Mathieu Droin

2 months

Yes, challenges in the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are increasingly interconnected. But no, #NATO is not the right connector. We explore why in this @ForeignAffairs piece, co-authored with @ka_grieco @HappymonJacob 🧵

Why NATO Should Stay Out of Asia

The alliance would leave the region less, not more, secure.

www.foreignaffairs.com

4

23

67

Last Seen Profiles

@ussoy

@MES_MathCIC

@stwmaniax

@soutaljazeera

@Benchegoal

@cincau_cau

@khanlala480454

@jackbyrne91

@warren__terra

@TheVelvetNap

@Mvencus

@KohlSummerville

@bigcat_mia

@mai_k_staff

@screenstudio

@SaulBCoco

@Angelowic

@STRONG_PlSS

@sumank

@douglas6138_m

@dylanmcd

@thugrachaaim

@dylan_Schlagel

@china_action

@real_workamania

@shouenmoe50904

@naforloo

@_Delca_

@VatsalaShrangi

@kimleesi

@DuDu_Down2ride_

@stwmaniax

@6brits

@tomsonhoffman

@matafutamata

@Hellosss_Wai

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Yes, uranium matters. But no, it is not the main reason why France cares about Niger🇳🇪. Paris considered Niger as a linchpin for new types of partnerships with African countries – more equitable, transparent, and inclusive – which the coup abruptly halted. A 🧵 1/15

200

722

3K

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

Important speech by Emmanuel Macron on European Defense, as he visits Sweden🇸🇪. A clear call for Europeans to ramp up their whole defense effort and support for Ukraine🇺🇦, “at whatever cost” and “whatever🇺🇸 decisions”. Main takeaways 🧵 1/7

196

516

3K

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

⚠️ #INFOX Neither 🇫🇷 nor other Europeans 🇪🇸🇮🇹 are "withdrawing" from US🇺🇸-led Operation Prosperity Guardian! This is a misunderstanding of how the initiative operates. Clarifications 👇🧵 1/7

Megatron

@Megatron_ron

8 months

BREAKING: ⚡After France, now Spain and Italy are withdrawing from the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian The operation has de facto failed and the Houthis continue to maintain the blockade of Israel.

581

5K

16K

21

444

2K

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

🇦🇲 is a telling example of an interesting tit-for-tat between #France and #Russia . While 🇷🇺 is exploiting resentment against 🇫🇷 in its former colonial empire, notably in Africa (🇨🇫🇲🇱🇳🇪🇧🇫), 🇫🇷 is closing ranks with former USSR republics or satellites wary of 🇷🇺(🇲🇩🇰🇿🇺🇿🇲🇳). 🧵1/13

POLITICOEurope

@POLITICOEurope

6 months

France has planted its flag in Russia’s backyard with its Armenia arms deals.

115

168

710

23

228

1K

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

What a week it’s been for 🇫🇷 frigate Languedoc in NW Indian Ocean! Thwarting a Houthi attack by downing two drones, protecting a 🇳🇴 tanker under attack with 🇺🇸, before being brought under 🇪🇺 flag with #OperationAtalanta But why are 🇫🇷&🇪🇺 in the area, and what are they doing? A🧵

12

141

492

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

So, am I really working in a "think tank", or is this more of a "think armoured fighting vehicle"?

20

482

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

He added, summarizing the thrust of his intervention: "Our involvement with #Ukraine is not just to prevent a Russian victory but for us to decide our own future and to be around the table because Ukraine is part of our continent." END

13

35

418

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

He reiterated what he told French audience recently, that ““It is impossible, for all us, to see 🇷🇺 winning this war.” This would mean "no more security architecture on our continent.” “What would be the future of Eastern Europe, of our friends in Central Asia, in the Caucasus?”

13

38

405

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

He therefore stressed that “We will have be to be ready, to act, defend, and support 🇺🇦, whatever the US decides. We are lucky to have such a partner. But we have to be lucid about the fact that 🇺🇦 is part of the European continent, and to make the right and bold decisions”. 3/7

6

42

403

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

“Contemporary imperialism is not European or Western” Several strong statements by 🇫🇷President @EmmanuelMacron in his address to the United Nations General Assembly general debate today #UNGA 🇺🇳. Key highlights: 🧵

11

127

387

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

International coverage (and disinformation campaigns) of the coup have tended to portray French interest in Niger as mainly driven by its access to the country’s natural resources. Undeniably, it is an important factor, as Nigerien uranium accounts for 15% of French needs. 2/15

6

25

373

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

Another leitmotiv of #Macron , the need to step out of “geopolitical minority” and for Europeans to be able to decide on their security or arms control architecture “we cannot delegate to superpowers, even if it’s an Ally, because it is on the other side of the Atlantic” 6/7

5

32

375

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

In terms of tools, he reiterated his support to Kaja Kallas' proposal for Eurobonds for defense, and supported an evolution of the European Peace Facility, topic that will be on the agenda of the upcoming EU Council on Feb 1st, but still faces objections, notably from Hungary.4/7

7

36

368

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

He insisted on the need to reinforce “production” in order not to be outmatched by 🇷🇺, who managed to put its def industry on a war footing. After praising 🇸🇪 progress towards NATO membership, he clarified that “Europe is no substitute to NATO”, “But an important pillar of NATO”

4

34

367

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

5 months

The “Weimar Triangle” reunited at the highest level, in a good display of cohesion and responsibility, if not yet genuine unity or shared ambition. The 3 leaders have put to the fore their common denominators, leaving the most divisive issues aside. Takeaways & comments🧵1/11

8

109

367

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

But it should not be overstated. 🇫🇷 electricity provider EDF already embarked in diversifying its suppliers. 🇳🇪 (4% of global uranium production), is now 2nd 🇫🇷 supplier, supplanted by 🇰🇿 and challenged by 🇺🇿. France is also reported to have existing stocks that could cover 2 y.

9

31

354

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

This again does not mean that the EU accepts to be "under US command", but this remains a net gain for operation Prosperity Guardian. The operation must therefore be taken for what it is: a US-led coordination effort, with the CTF as its nucleus, and contributing partners. END

6

26

358

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

France 🇫🇷 for instance has made clear from the onset that it would contribute to enhanced intelligence sharing and that its assets deployed in the region would closely coordinate with the operation, but that it would maintain its "operational autonomy" (ie. under 🇫🇷 command). 3/7

2

23

348

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

The major issue for 🇫🇷 is that it invested in 🇳🇪 to be a model for its new approach to the continent, as laid out in Pdt Macron speech in March, calling for “new, balanced, reciprocal and responsible relationship”. Democratically elected Bazoum was seen as a key partner. 4/15

11

32

343

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 months

The NATO summit in Washington is about to kick in. Over the past few days and weeks, there's been a tsunami of briefs, articles, and events that are worth your time. But since your time is valuable, here is a selection of recommended reads to grasp the stakes of this summit 👇1/8

5

110

314

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

As per the DoD statement, #ProsperityGuardian builds upon an existing US-led multinational force, the Combined Task Force 153 (CTF). Some countries are joining this CTF and, in doing so, are brought under 🇺🇸 command. Others are supporting the operation, without joining the CTF.

2

23

309

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

“We have lost opportunities to listen to you” Interesting effort by @EmmanuelMacron to rally Central and Eastern Europe audience around his vision for the future of Europe, in a landmark speech @GLOBSEC in Bratislava. Some highlights 🧵 1/18

7

95

292

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

This has been acknowledged by the US (cf. talks between US Defense Secretary @SecDef and FR Min of Armed Forces @SebLecornu 👇). The two countries by the way have robust coordination in the region. No later than last week they coordinated the protection of a🇳🇴 ship under attack.

1

13

292

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Militarily first, France & Niger engaged in a unique “combat partnership”, where anti-terrorist operations were carried out under 🇳🇪 command. The 1.500 French troops in Niger provided combat support (reassurances, strikes on identified targets, etc.), intelligence and training.

8

17

288

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

This partnership has achieved important tactical successes in the fight against terrorism, as figures show 👇. It allowed the 🇳🇪 Armed Forces to regain a foothold in the three-border area, previously abandoned to the armed terrorist groups. 6/15

Sophie Pedder

@PedderSophie

1 year

Plenty has been said about the shortcomings of 🇫🇷 anti-jihadist operations in the Sahel, but worth noting two things on this chart - 2022 was the year 🇫🇷left Mali (fully out in August) and closed down Barkhane - Niger was where 🇫🇷 was working well to support its anti-jihadist ops

10

117

294

2

26

282

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Reversing the trend is a tall order as 🇫🇷 fights an asymmetric battle of attractiveness with Wagner, 🇷🇺 or 🇨🇳 who have the benefit of novelty, of alleged "colonial virginity" (although Wagner practices are utterly neo-colonial) and the “luxury” of being able to use disinformation

2

25

277

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

Same applies to other 🇪🇺 countries such as 🇪🇸🇮🇹, who did not wait for the US call to be active in the region. 🇪🇸 has the command of EU's operation @EUNAVFOR Atalanta, a permanent naval presence since 2008 (this🧵 gives an overview of European presence👇)

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

What a week it’s been for 🇫🇷 frigate Languedoc in NW Indian Ocean! Thwarting a Houthi attack by downing two drones, protecting a 🇳🇴 tanker under attack with 🇺🇸, before being brought under 🇪🇺 flag with #OperationAtalanta But why are 🇫🇷&🇪🇺 in the area, and what are they doing? A🧵

12

141

492

2

25

282

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

But it might pay off in the longer run, when juntas and their new partners will be accountable for the situation of their countries. In the meantime it is up to France to deliver on its new approach and to draw the good lessons of this series of setbacks. END

21

18

264

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

🇳🇪&🇫🇷 also made sure to avoid one of the flaws of most post-independence defense agreements, the lack of transparency and legitimacy. The presence of Foreign troops on Niger’s territory was indeed endorsed by a vote of the National Assembly, following a debate, in April 2022.

1

14

255

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

What's next? 🇫🇷 clearly supports the reinstatement of President Bazoum, but is clear-eyed that any military involvement would be counter-productive. It therefore defers to the #ECOWAS , which has its own sources of concerns, as explained by @jh_barnett

James Barnett

@jh_barnett

1 year

I've seen some poorly informed speculation on here that ECOWAS is a proxy for France and the US and is only taking a hard line on the Niger coup at their behest (for "uranium," or w/e) A quick thread on why ECOWAS leaders have their own reasons to want to reverse this coup 1/10

40

415

1K

1

17

242

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

The EU🇪🇺 has announced earlier this week that it agreed to "contribute" to #ProsperityGuardian . It clarified that this contribution would be to "intensify our information sharing and increase our presence with additional naval assets." 6/7

Josep Borrell Fontelles

@JosepBorrellF

8 months

Irresponsible Houthi actions are a threat to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. At the extraordinary PSC meeting I called today, Member States have agreed to contribute to the US Operation Prosperity Guardian @SecDef through Operation @EUNAVFOR ATALANTA.

391

102

274

1

20

246

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

As 🇵🇱 PM Tusk visits 🇫🇷&🇩🇪, and as Foreign Ministers of the three countries meet in France, there seems to be a shared ambition of reviving the “Weimar Triangle”. With unprecedented challenges facing Europe, this format has a crucial role to play, but a long way to go… A 🧵1/15

3

60

241

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

This partnership was also a good example of sthing dear to Paris: Europeanization. 🇫🇷 has promoted the concept of ‘Team Europe’, with joint trips to African countries. Other 🇪🇺 capitals identified 🇳🇪 as an anchor of stability in the region, such as 🇩🇪 in its Sahel strategy. 8/15

1

12

233

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

Yesterday @EmmanuelMacron and @sanchezcastejon signed a Friendship Treaty between 🇫🇷 and 🇪🇸 The 🇫🇷 President will then host 🇩🇪 @bundeskanzler Scholz on Sunday, before welcoming 🇬🇧 PM @RishiSunak on March 10th What is the strategic significance of this busy bilateral agenda?🧵

9

55

226

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Brussels🇪🇺 also considered Niger as a central partner in the region. The EU established in Dec.22 a military partnership to support the country in its fight against terrorism, with assistance through the European Peace Facility #EPF (close to €70M) and a 🇳🇪 lead on operations.

3

13

221

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Finally, Pdt Bazoum was also seen as a key partner to promote the New Global Financial Deal between North and South that @EmmanuelMacron convened in June in 🇫🇷, to rethink the global financial architecture in favor of developing and low income countries. 10/15

1

15

217

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

On the other hand, the long term intention is prob the good one. 🇫🇷 will continue to be contested in former colonies, esp. by a disgruntled youth, as long as it is perceived as part of their pb and not the solution. Sthing that the new approach aims to tackle, but requires time.

1

11

213

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Should therefore the coup in Niger be considered a failure of France's new approach and an incentive to reconsider it? On the one hand, it obviously failed to convince both the whole of Nigerien security apparatus and the Nigerien population. 12/15

1

13

207

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

“What makes France so aggravating to the US is also what makes it so valuable.” As the #StateVisit unfolds, @ChrisChivvis and I argue that 🇫🇷 &🇺🇸 often have different approaches to converging objectives. Sometimes it clashes, most often it is complementary

What Makes France So Aggravating to the United States Is Also What Makes It So Valuable

Macron’s visit is a chance for Washington to realize the value of its independent-minded ally.

carnegieendowment.org

2

52

194

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

#diplo2metier Passer des années à apprendre des kanjis, des schèmes ou des déclinaisons. Déménager tous les trois/quatre ans. Assimiler des textes, des tactiques de négo pour défendre les intérêts 🇫🇷. Protéger nos compatriotes à l’étranger par la compréhension fine d’un pays.1/2

2

17

178

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

3 months

@EmmanuelMacron live on French TV. France will: 🟦 Transfer Mirage 2000-5 to 🇺🇦 and train pilots, to protect its territory and airspace 🟦 Train and equip in 🇨🇵 a Ukrainian brigade - 4,500 troops 🟦 "sending military trainers in #Ukraine is not escalatory"

Emmanuel Macron

@EmmanuelMacron

3 months

Interview sur TF1 et France 2.

1K

423

1K

7

51

167

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

4 months

One element that stands out of Macron’s recent statements (Sorbonne, @TheEconomist itvw) is his new mental map of Europe’s political geography. Shaped by the changing security environment, this new vision partly explains 🇫🇷 shifts vav 🇷🇺, enlargement, security discussions. A🧵1/

4

62

162

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron is on a historic tour to New Caledonia 🇳🇨, Vanuatu🇻🇺, & Papua New Guinea🇵🇬. What does it say of France's strategic positioning in the region and what to expect from the tour? 🧵1/16

5

58

156

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Tomorrow, Sweden hosts the second EU – Indo-Pacific forum, gathering ministers and high-level representatives from around 60 countries. A great display of the EU’s convening power, but what is the agenda and potential outcomes of such a broad format? A 🧵 1/13 #EUIndoPacific

2

59

135

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

7 months

For the US, the close 🇨🇵🇮🇳 partnership feels a bit like the two turbulent students of the class ganging up. But as I argue in this new piece for @WPReview , despite the two partners' emphasis on "strategic autonomy", there's more than meets the eye for 🇺🇲

The U.S. Can Benefit From France and India’s Partnership

The US has long been suspicious of France and India’s strong relations. Here’s why it shouldn’t be.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

3

46

129

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

5 months

This op-ed by 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱 Foreign Ministers is significant in many respects, 1st for the content, but also for the format, and for what it says of the dynamics within the “Weimar triangle”. Here are the points that stand out and some takeaways 🧵1/14

Germany, France and Poland: This moment may define our children’s future

European allies should shoulder their fair share of NATO’s collective burden and demonstrate readiness to take more responsibility for Europe’s defense.

www.politico.eu

3

42

119

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

Resounding "6 points call" by President Macron on Europeans @MunSecConf , on defense reinvestment, nuclear deterrence, arms control, security architecture, peace building and North-South partnership. 🧵 1/9

6

52

114

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

Delighted to share that I started as a Visiting Fellow @CSIS ! Honored to work with @Maxbergmann and looking forward to contributing to the great work of @csiserep team on European /Transatlantic security & defense, bringing some French-flavored perspectives (beyond the accent)

6

11

113

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

VILNIUS 🧵3 – NATO’s support for Ukraine What deliverables can we reasonably expect at the Vilnius Summit? How to close the GAP (guarantees, assistance, path) from #NATO full-fledged membership? What are the different positions among allies? 1/21

5

39

109

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 months

4⃣ On what NATO does concretely and has achieved in the past 2 years, call me biased, but I truly think that our collective @CSIS report "Is NATO ready for war?" is your must-read. It is comprehensive, includes scorecards on main commitments and nice maps.

3

29

109

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

Russia has been rather successful in harnessing existing anti-French sentiment and fueling it with #disinformation to dislodge 🇫🇷 in its former colonial empire, notably through the infamous Wagner Group PMC. (see this piece for @csis w/ @TinaDolbaia 👇)

Russia Is Still Progressing in Africa. What's the Limit? | CSIS

This paper examines Russia’s creeping influence over Africa, assessing Moscow’s historic legacy as well as the current diplomatic, economic, and military-security links that contribute to the...

www.csis.org

1

11

106

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

5 months

Emmanuel Macron on the factors leading to his call for an "awakening" on 🇺🇦🇷🇺, on French TV: ▶️"🇺🇦 counteroffensive did not go as planned" ▶️"Toughening of Russia" who will not stop in Ukraine ▶️The outcome of the conflict is "existential" for European and French security

Emmanuel Macron

@EmmanuelMacron

5 months

Au 20h de TF1 et de France 2.

3K

2K

7K

0

26

107

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

The annual speech of 🇫🇷 President to Ambassadors is a key rendezvous for French diplomacy. This year @EmmanuelMacron hinted at 4 priorities (1⃣Security & stability, 2⃣Independence, 3⃣Partnerships, 4⃣Influence) & made some important comments on 🇺🇦, 🇪🇺, 🇨🇳, 🇳🇪,🌍 among others. A🧵

5

50

106

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

VILNIUS🧵2 – Sweden’s NATO accession vs Turkey’s obstruction What are the odds of Turkey 🇹🇷 dropping its objection at the #VilniusNATOSummit ? What are the terms of the negotiations? What happens if Sweden 🇸🇪 does join? If it doesn’t? 1/15

14

31

101

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

🇫🇷 in return is elbowing its way into #Russia 's backyard, with former Soviet republics worried about their sovereignty. Armenia🇦🇲 is a rather natural partner given the historical strength of the relationship w/🇫🇷, but it has reached new level in the context of recent war with 🇦🇿.

1

8

97

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 months

#NATO 's Washington Summit Declaration is out! Main takeaways and observations (Ukraine🇺🇦, Russia🇷🇺 China🇨🇳, burden sharing, deterrence & defense, EU-NATO, NATO-Indo-Pacific, Southern neighborhood)🧵1/16

Washington Summit Declaration issued by NATO Heads of State and Government (2024)

www.nato.int

4

65

100

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

3 months

Exactly one year ago, #Macron gave one of his most important speech on 🇫🇷 European policy, at @GLOBSEC . It heralded a shift on 🇺🇦🇷🇺 and a clear effort to woo central & eastern Europeans. The speech raised both eyebrows and expectations. Has it been followed through? 🧵1/12

5

43

100

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

These latter examples highlight a conducive convergence of strategic interests, both geopolitical and geoeconomic, between 🇫🇷 and former USSR republic or satellites. While these countries are diversifying their partners, these moves help to bring them closer to the West. END

5

96

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

The ongoing visit of @SebLecornu is a first by a 🇫🇷 Minister of Armed Forces. France was, with🇮🇳, the first to sign arm deals with Armenia after 🇦🇿 attack on #NagornoKarabakh in September. The visit should advance prospects of acquisition of MBDA short-range Mistral missiles.

1

8

94

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

“France and India: nuances of strategic autonomy” For @CSIS , @NicoBlar @jyotsnamehra @rajesh_basrur and I explore how a shared ambition to be "shapers" and not "followers" of the international order plays into the thriving bilateral relationship 🇮🇳🇫🇷.

France and India: Two Nuances of 'Strategic Autonomy' | CSIS

Narendra Modi’s presence as a guest of honor on Bastille Day is testament to a thriving Franco-Indian relationship. The strength of this partnership rests on convergent visions of multipolarity and...

www.csis.org

2

37

94

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 months

A European pillar within #NATO . This old idea is resurfacing, amid growing fears of a 2nd Trump term. But what does it mean exactly? For @ForeignAffairs , @jteurope , @SMonaghanCSIS and I share our thoughts on what the pillar should consist of. 1/7

NATO’s Missing Pillar

The alliance needs a more powerful Europe.

www.foreignaffairs.com

3

48

94

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

🇫🇷 has also emerged as the main security partner of Moldova🇲🇩. It organized an aid conference in Nov22 for the vulnerable country in the context of the war in #Ukraine , a LoI was signed in Sep23 to reinforce Moldovan air defense capabilities, including via GM 200 radar system.

6

7

90

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

5 months

And at times when the “🇩🇪🇫🇷 engine” fails to be the usual compromise builder that steers Europe, the addition of a 3rd pole can prove instrumental, and Donald Tusk seems to be ready to both support and challenge his two counterparts👇. He offered to host the next Summit. END

1

9

91

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

4 months

🇨🇵and 🇮🇹 are two Mediterranean powers, active in the Indian Ocean, and increasingly in Asia. Yet the bilateral cooperation across the Med-Indo-Pac remains below potential. For @9DashLine , @de_f_t and I look into how to make the most of this partnership👇

9DASHLINE — The case for a Franco-Italian spearhead in the Mediterranean-Indo-Pacific continuum

Written by Mathieu Droin and Emanuele Rossi. Irrespective of the strategic framing, France and Italy are both seeking ways to prevent disruptions to freedom of navigation and political instability in...

www.9dashline.com

5

36

89

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

VILNIUS🧵1 – NATO, China🇨🇳, and the Indo-Pacific Will the summit confirm #NATO ’s increased focus on China? Will it foster a transatlantic consensus on the Alliance’s role vis-à-vis the “systemic challenge”? Will it strengthen cooperation with Asia-Pacific partners? 1/15

3

24

85

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

#EmmanuelMacron paid official visits last year to: 1⃣ Kazakhstan🇰🇿: France's main provider of uranium (40%) and the world's largest producer. President Tokayev presented 🇫🇷 as a "our key and reliable partner in the 🇪🇺" and decided to acquire GM400 radars. 8/13

2

11

88

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Another milestone for 🇪🇺 defense and support to 🇺🇦: Foreign Affairs & Defense Ministers agreed on a scheme to speed up the delivery and joint procurement of ammunitions to restock 🇺🇦 Armed Forces and their own stockpiles, supported by €2Bn. How? What does it change? A 🧵 1/8

Josep Borrell Fontelles

@JosepBorrellF

1 year

A historic decision. Following my proposal, Member States agreed to deliver 1 mio rounds of artillery ammunition within the next 12 months. We have a 3 track approach: 1) €1 bn for immediate delivery 2) €1 bn for joint procurement 3) commission to ramp up production capacity

605

842

5K

4

35

87

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

Amazements of a Frenchman new in the US: on sidewalks, they grow candidates.

3

0

87

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

🇫🇷 has also been a strong advocate of 🇲🇩accession to the EU and supported Chisinau for hosting the 2nd summit of the European Political Community (see👇 w/ @IlkeToygur ), a format proposed by Paris to gather the leaders of the entire continent minus 🇷🇺&🇧🇾.

The Chisinau Summit: A Litmus Test for Moldova and the EPC | CSIS

The stakes are high for the upcoming Summit of the European Political Community, which is being held in Moldova on June 1. It is a political blessing but a logistical challenge for the small country,...

www.csis.org

1

7

82

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

As temperature seems to drop (a bit) following 🇫🇷 President Macron’s comments on his way back from 🇨🇳, a coolheaded lookback at this sequence. My take: bad communication, bad faith, and bad blood, for very valid questions. 🧵

Emmanuel Macron : « L'autonomie stratégique doit être le combat de l'Europe »

Sans autonomie stratégique, l'Europe risque de « sortir de l'histoire », prévient le président de la République dans un entretien réalisé lors de sa visite d'Etat en Chine.

www.lesechos.fr

5

35

80

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

🇫🇷 Minister for Europe & Foreign Affairs @MinColonna gave an important speech @CSIS on her first visit to the US. The event was held 40 days ahead of President Macron’s State Visit, the first of President Biden’s presidency. Key takeaways in this 🧵 1/14

1

18

82

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

As 🇺🇸🇦🇺🇬🇧 revealed yesterday the results of their 18 months consultations on how to provide 🇦🇺 with nuclear-powered subs, 🇫🇷in the meantime has worked with the 3 partners to repair ties, and advanced its own agenda in the Indo-Pacific. A 🧵to look back at 🇫🇷 "post-AUKUS efforts"

3

25

80

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

There is also an important energy dimension in 🇫🇷 campaign vav 🇷🇺 former allies. 🇫🇷 was ousted from 🇳🇪 in summer23, a country that accounted for 15% of its uranium imports. It happens that France's main suppliers and main prospects are in 🇷🇺's self-declared "sphere of influence".

1

8

76

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 month

Absolutely in-Seine opening ceremony 🤯♥️🇫🇷 #Paris2024

4

9

76

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

2⃣ Uzbekistan: first Presidential visit since Mitterrand 1994, 3rd uranium supplier to 🇫🇷. On top of signing several agreements in the energy, minerals and transport sectors, the two countries agreed to "advance the bilateral relations to the level of a strategic partnership".

2

7

75

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

3⃣ Mongolia, with 2 historic visits by respective presidents in 2023. Not a former USSR republic,🇲🇳was ruled by a communist party with close ties to Moscow until 1990. Today, it strives to develop its policy of "third neighbor" to untangle from its landlocked position b/🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳

6

5

75

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

🇲🇳's demand for reliable partners to unlock the potential of its major critical minerals and uranium reserves, met Paris' quest for alternative providers, while both countries found strategic commonalities (see our piece w/ @lady_bolor for @Diplomat_APAC )

What’s Driving the France-Mongolia Rapprochement?

Just five month after the French president’s historic visit to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa paid a state visit to France.

thediplomat.com

1

6

74

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

VILNIUS 🧵WRAP For the #NATOSummit I have put together 6 threads on key topics, that I gather here 👇 with some updates and comments on the main takeaways: 1⃣NATO/🇨🇳 & Indo-Pacific 2⃣🇸🇪accession vs 🇹🇷 obstruction 3⃣NATO-🇺🇦 4⃣🇪🇺-NATO 5⃣Defense spending 6⃣Eastern flank 1/18

2

37

71

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

3 months

🇫🇷&🇮🇹 sont 2 puissances méditerranéennes, actives dans l’océan Indien et de manière croissante en Asie. Pourtant, la coopération dans l'espace MedIndoPac demeure en-deçà de son potentiel, que nous explorons avec @de_f_t dans ce papier pour @lerubicon_org 👇

Pour un fer de lance franco-italien sur l’espace Méditerranée-Indopacifique

L’Union européenne (UE) a lancé le 19 février une nouvelle opération, Aspides, visant à protéger la liberté de navigation dans le Nord-Ouest de l’océan Indien. Aux côtés de la Grèce, deux pays ont...

lerubicon.org

2

17

69

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

Macron hailed both countries' refusal to be "vassals" of any power. 🇺🇿🇰🇿 are indeed examples of 🇷🇺's contested influence in Central Asia. Both refused to support the invasion of 🇺🇦, although the region remains a hub for sanctions circumvention (see 👇).

Out of Stock? Assessing the Impact of Sanctions on Russia’s Defense Industry | CSIS

Western sanctions are having an important battlefield impact. As the quality of the advanced Russian military equipment will continue to decline—at least over the near term—so will Russia’s ability...

www.csis.org

1

5

71

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

The DC finquetanqueurs #STATEVISIT 🇫🇷🇺🇲

0

2

72

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

5 months

Two years ago, the European Union🇪🇺 adopted its first roadmap for security and defense: the Strategic Compass. The @EEAS has just released the 2nd annual report on its implementation. Overall appraisal: a glass half-full. A closer look in this thread🧵 1/

1

27

68

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Is ostracization from the West enough to turn 🇷🇺 & 🇮🇷 into pariahs? For @WarOnTheRocks , @NicoleGrajewski and I look at 2 decades of efforts by Russia and Iran to offset policies of isolation, through “pariah-nerships” and promotion of a multipolar order.

Iran, Russia, and the Challenges of “Inter-Pariah Solidarity” - War on the Rocks

On March 31, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian foreign policy concept that hailed the ongoing “formation of a more equitable

warontherocks.com

4

34

70

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

4 months

We don't know who the next US president will be. But for Europeans, the scenario of a Trump-Putin deal on 🇺🇦wd have such dire consequences that they can't afford to wait&see. @DaliborRohac &I explore how Europeans cd prepare & react, for @thedispatch 1/

Trump’s Proposed Ukraine ‘Deal’ Threatens European Security

The continent’s leaders can’t afford to wait to see how the U.S. election turns out.

thedispatch.com

9

35

68

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

8 months

🇫🇷 has unique position and stakes because of its overseas territories in the (SW) Indian Ocean (>1M hab, 2K permanent forces). The IO is divided into two areas of responsibility, broadly South/West under the command of @FAZSOI_Officiel and North/West under @FFEAU_AlIndien 👇

3

14

68

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

In French, this is called "Montagnes Russes" = Russian Mountains

0

9

67

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

4 months

"Europe's strong position cannot be taken for granted once and for all. The EU must become a geopolitical player equal to other international powers." Important point from Macron's Sorbonne speech. Oh, wait, sorry, this is from FM @radeksikorski 's address to 🇵🇱 Parliament 1/7

3

22

67

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

3 months

European pillar of #NATO , Weimar reflection process on 🇪🇺 external relations, single EU PoC on sanctions... The #WeimarAgenda laid out by the 3 Foreign Ministers 🇫🇷🇵🇱🇩🇪 deserves your attention 👇 Here are the main points, and some comments 🧵 1/

A Weimar Agenda for a strong, geopolitical European Union (Weimar, 22 May 2024)

Joint Statement by Foreign Affairs Ministers of France, Germany and Poland Our security is under threat. We live in an age of systemic rivalry (…)

www.diplomatie.gouv.fr

4

31

66

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Tomorrow is #D étenteCordiale day, as PM Rishi Sunak goes to Paris for the first 🇫🇷🇬🇧 Summit since Sandhurst in 2018. If interested in the matter, here is some context and recommended reads on what to look for on security and defense issues🧵 #FranceUKSummit

2

25

65

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 months

Les piliers (de bar) européens de l'OTAN - plaisir d'échanger avec @ElieTenenbaum #NATO75

2

3

67

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

5 months

🇫🇷's change of tack, whose drivers are well explained by @BrunoTertrais 👇, was particularly well received in 🇵🇱&most CEE countries, showing a potential for convergence b/ E and W Europe that has been lacking since Feb22. But it takes three to triangle…

Bruno Tertrais

@BrunoTertrais

6 months

1/5 Why did Macron change its public stance on Russia? A net assessment based on 4 reasons. 1. He was mugged by reality. The fact is that Putin lied to him, proved deaf to attempts to how goodwill, while Russia doubled down on aggression.

96

807

5K

1

5

67

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

La diplomatie est une vocation. Demain je me joins à la grève. Pas pour fermer la porte à quiconque, mais pour garantir qu’elle soit toujours ouverte à ceux qui, comme moi, sont convaincus que c’est dans ce Ministère qu’ils sont ou qu'ils seront le plus utiles à la 🇫🇷

2

9

64

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

3 months

Only in DC...

6

1

66

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Security challenges of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are increasingly interconnected, but #NATO may not be the best connector. For @9DashLine I argue that NATO growing engagement w/ IP countries fuels tensions, without the means to address them.

9DASHLINE — NATO’s future in the Indo-Pacific: Tilt or jilt?

Written by Mathieu Droin. The limitations of what NATO can offer or execute in the Indo-Pacific raise the question of whether there may be other more appropriate frameworks to publicly tackle shared...

www.9dashline.com

6

27

62

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

9 months

Dans quelle mesure les guerres en Europe et au Proche-Orient affectent le pivot 🇺🇲 vers l'Indopacifique? Éléments de réflexion dans mon premier article pour le @Grand_Continent (et ci-dessous 🧵 1/8)

Les États-Unis dans la guerre étendue : vers où pivoter ? | Le Grand Continent

La bascule de l’attention stratégique des États-Unis entre différents théâtres régionaux, de l’Europe à l’Asie, en passant par le Moyen-Orient, n’est pas un jeu à somme nulle. Les conséquences des...

legrandcontinent.eu

1

26

63

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

After historic presidential visits to 🇲🇳🇻🇺🇵🇬🇱🇰earlier this year, President Macron was in Bangladesh 🇧🇩 these past two days. A new emphasis on middle powers and smaller countries to buttress France’s ambition to offer an alternative path in the Indo-Pacific. A 🧵 1/11

4

14

62

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

1 year

Delighted to share our new @CSIS report: “Are European Navies Ready to Navigate an Ever More Contested Maritime Domain?”, with Stiles Herdt & Gabriella Bolstad, as part of @csiserep @CSIS_isp ’s Transforming European Defense Project. 👇

Are European Navies Ready to Navigate an Ever More Contested Maritime Domain? | CSIS

Faced with increasing threats in the maritime domain, European navies are plagued by fragmentation and decades of underinvestment. What would it take to make them fit for current and future challen...

www.csis.org

1

24

61

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

2 years

For my debut @CSIS , I wrote on the “Franco-German engine”, looking at the impact of the war in #Ukraine and the changes of government in both countries on their aspirations for European leadership. Short🧵1/5

Rebooting the Franco-German Engine

France and Germany are both vying for leadership in Europe, but their aspirations have been curtailed by the war in Ukraine and the bilateral relationship's lack of stamina. It is in the interest of...

www.csis.org

5

14

61

Mathieu Droin

@Mathieu_Droin

6 months

Pdt Emmanuel #Macron on the rationale behind the Paris conference on support for Ukraine🇺🇦: a call for a "collective [leap/surge] (sursaut)" and to explore how to "do differently, based on Ukrainian needs" in the face of a "hardening of🇷🇺", who "cannot and must not win this war"

Élysée

@Elysee

6 months

Conférence de soutien à l'Ukraine.

826

532

2K

2

28

63