Matt Costlow @Matt_Costlow Twitter profile

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Matt Costlow

1 year

You have read about what is needed militarily to defend Taiwan against China. Now read about how that military aid can fit into a broader deterrence strategy - using all the tools of state power. Re-upping the NIPP report on the topic:

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

Ukraine is happily relying on lemons!

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

2 months

Ukraine needs more air and missile defenses. But more than that, Ukraine needs the Biden Administration to lift its targeting restrictions so it can strike the shooters before they cause more devastation like this.

Oz Katerji

@OzKaterji

2 months

Today Russia bombed a Children’s hospital in Kyiv, I’m at the scene and the devastation is horrific

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

5 months

Thinking about this today.

Jon B. Wolfsthal 🟦🇨🇿

@JBWolfsthal

5 months

@SimonHoejbjerg @nukestrat @LauraEGrego It’s not that I’m against missile defense. I would love to see a working viable, effective and affordable system. But we have to realize that some things are still not possible and we shouldn’t over estimate the capabilities of systems that we might need to rely on. Realism.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

5 months

You know what take I am not seeing right now? "Gee, Iron Dome is not worth it. It probably costs more to intercept a missile than for Iran to fire it. Best not to try anymore." Active defenses, like any defense procurement decision, rests on your value system and priorities.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 years

Russia 🇷🇺: "We've lost count of how many new variants of ICBMs we have in production." China 🇨🇳: "Let's quadruple our ICBM numbers." U.S. 🇺🇸 : "Let's spend thousands of dollars for a report on whether we should replace ICBMs that are 50 years old." 🙄🙄🙄

Biden Enlists Nuclear Disarmament Proponents to Study ICBM Alternatives

The Biden administration has enlisted two nuclear-disarmament advocates to present the Defense Department with "alternatives" to the United States' long-standing intercontinental ballistic missiles...

freebeacon.com

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

I can't in good conscience encourage you, dear reader, to submit yourself to this article, so let me break it down for you. Eliminating our ICBMs while RU and CH develop and/or deploy weapons to destroy the remaining US nuclear assets⬆️risk of attack. 1/2

It’s not too late to cancel the Pentagon’s next ICBM

Axing Sentinel would save hundreds of billions of dollars—and make America safer.

www.defenseone.com

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

What would a world without U.S. ICBMs looks like? Pretty scary actually.😬 From my report: "Safety in Diversity." pp. 31-42. Why would eliminating ICBMs damage US security? 👇👇👇 - Fewer strategic assets / vulnerable to conventional attack ... 1/5

Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

I can't in good conscience encourage you, dear reader, to submit yourself to this article, so let me break it down for you. Eliminating our ICBMs while RU and CH develop and/or deploy weapons to destroy the remaining US nuclear assets⬆️risk of attack. 1/2

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

(For those asking, Patriot is incredible and has saved countless lives around the world - next time I will include an emoji to make my sarcasm a bit clearer haha)

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

5 months

SecDef Austin just testified the US nuclear modernization program - in line with the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission's bipartisan unanimous conclusion - was "necessary but not sufficient." Two other admin officials stated the same at SW21. Why is this important? A 🧵... 1/7

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

8 months

The Doomsday Clock has always been pseudoscience, but in recent years it has outdone itself.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

5 months

Ahead of its time in many respects. Fascinating. But a reminder: this is 1980s tech. For policy reasons, and policy reasons alone, the United States has chosen not to invest significant R&D into what a Brilliant Pebbles 2.0 could look like today. That's a choice. And a bad one.

Aaron Bateman

@aaronbateman22

5 months

It’s not everyday that you get to see the one remaining Brilliant Pebble space-based interceptor from the Strategic Defense Initiative. Thanks to the folks at Lawrence Livermore for hosting me!

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

2 months

If vastly fewer nuclear weapons were the key to less danger, we'd see the benefits by now. Unless and until people understand that "nuclear danger" is predominantly a function of political perceptions/goals, not number of weapons, there will be no progress on reducing danger.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

15 days

Gonna keep tapping this sign. Over and over.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

@RyanMcbeth @CommunityNotes (I know. I am poking fun at the article 😉)

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

It’s coming from the guy who wrote a whole report that said you can’t trust regional missile defense because he hasn’t seen the wreckage and flight data of intercepts in the ME. Strangely silent in the wake of Ukraine and Israel on this issue…

John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦

@John_A_Ridge

3 months

Noted political scientist Jeff Lewis explaining physics and engineering to physicists and engineers

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

10 days

Nuclear reduction proponents have been calling on the United States for years to eliminate its ICBMs unilaterally. At the same time, they bemoan China and Russia not engaging in arms control with the United States. They have not addressed the incongruence to any serious degree.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

2 months

Annie Jacobsen

@AnnieJacobsen

2 months

Can the US shoot down a nuclear-armed ICBM? If not, why not? 56 sec answer👇 (Spoiler alert: No.) The Shaw Ryan Show #120 . Watch on YouTube or listen on Spotify (3hrs 50 mins)

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

2 months

I dunno... building asteroid defenses will just cause the universe to create more asteroids - leading us into a destabilizing and wasteful arms race. 😜

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

1 month

Finally got to read through @heatherwilly 's transcript of Acting ASD for Space Policy @NarangVipin talk at CSIS. Wow. Recommend everyone read through it. Here are some interesting nuggets I have not seen others pick up on. A 🧵... 1/n

Nuclear Threats and the Role of Allies: A Conversation with Acting Assistant Secretary Vipin Narang...

The CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues hosted Dr. Vipin Narang, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, to discuss nuclear threats and the role of allies.

www.csis.org

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

4 months

Let's take Ms Jacobson's template for storytelling in her new book (leaders choose the worst hypothetical option each time) and, instead of nuclear deterrence, apply it to arms control. If you think its unfair/unlikely then call out Jacobson too. A 🧵...

72 Minutes Until the End of the World?

A new book lays out the frighteningly fast path to nuclear Armageddon.

www.politico.com

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

3 months

Nuclear weapons are a tool that revisionist states like Russia and China, or status quo states, like the US, can use to advance their political goals. The nuclear disarmament movement is disproportionately focused on disarming the status quo states. This damages security.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

2 years

Basically.

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

7 months

I'm fairly convinced the movement collapsed for two reasons: 1. It conflated all nuclear-armed powers as equally dangerous, when the average Joe on the street knows US does not equal DPRK 2. It equated nuclear numbers with nuclear danger - demonstrably false 1/4

Decker Eveleth

@dex_eve

7 months

How did the anti-nuclear movement fall so quickly and so catastrophically? How did we go from Prague Speech to open mockery of the Bulletin and all the catastrophic risk funding getting funneled into studying the consequences of a technology that can't even tell me what a dog is?

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Matt Costlow

@Matt_Costlow

2 years

Better headline: “Russia and China increase nuclear arsenals while U.S. decreases”