@CSIS
@csisponi
@csis_isp
hosted A/ASD for Space Policy
@NarangVipin
to talk about Nuclear Threats and the Role of Allies. We covered a lot of ground and got some new info about US nuclear policy. You can watch the event 👇but here are my key takeaways 1/
Someone please buy a drink for the Congressional staffer who had the presence of mind to grab the paperwork for certifying the election before they were evacuated.
We are pleased to announce that Dr. Heather Williams (
@heatherwilly
) has joined
@CSIS
as director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (
@csisponi
) and a senior fellow in the International Security Program (
@csis_isp
).
Putin putting nuclear weapons on high alert is his way of telling us just how important Ukraine is to him. Also, sadly, probably portends a (non-nuclear) escalation in Russian attacks on Ukraine. This is pure nuclear bullying and irresponsibly risky.
So this is happening- starting in september I will be a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow
@MIT_SSP
working on arms control and emerging tech w
@NarangVipin
and others. Cannot wait! (And looking forward to checking out the Boston food scene)
Russia's suspension of New START is evidence that it is doubling down on a strategy of nuclear bullying. It is the latest in a series of trends of bad behavior and manipulating nuclear risks. But that isn't what really worries me.... 1/
@csisponi
@csis_isp
Some professional news- next year I will be a visiting fellow at
@ManagingtheAtom
@BelferCenter
@Kennedy_School
My main project will be on arms control and emerging tech, along with ongoing research on extended deterrence, NPT, and TPNW.
Getting a lot of requests for advice about dissertation-writing lately. So here's the writing advice I wish someone had given me: just start writing. There will always be an excuse not to write or someone who is unhelpful. Stop talking about writing, and just start writing.
@DavidSantoro1
@OlyaOliker
@CyberAlexi
@LawDavF
@IISS_org
@NarangVipin
From all this research, here's my main takeaway: social media doesn't escalate crises. It is largely targeted at domestic audiences. Nonetheless, it can amplify dangerous narratives and create information echo chambers. So best advice, during crises: stop tweeting.
For the past 18 months we have been researching the impact of Twitter on crisis escalation and came up with some policy recommendations for
@DeptofDefense
and
@Twitter
. Here’s what we found:
Like others, I am disgusted by the blatant sexism and age-ism towards
@Emma_Pike_
for sharing her enthusiasm and expertise. No place for this in the nuclear community and I hope we can all work to respect and welcome a greater diversity of views. Congrats
@Emma_Pike_
great piece.
“A world without nuclear weapons is totally possible,” says
@Emma_Pike_
, a nuclear disarmament consultant and activist. She shared her thoughts with Times Opinion on TikTok:
Congratulations to the brilliant DR Amelia Morgan
@amelia_morgan_
who just successfully passed her viva w NO CORRECTIONS defending her PhD on public opinion and nuclear weapons
@DSD_Kings
@KCLSecurity
@KCL_CSSS
Could not be more happy for such a dedicated student and dear friend
Just gonna put this out there- trolling early career folks is not cool. Respectful substantive engagement- fine. Ad hominem attacks that seem to target someone's age- not fine. Happy Friday, everybody, sassy Heather is back.
Happy anniversary, London! 9 years ago today I got off the plane and moved here. 5 years ago today I submitted by PhD dissertation. And today, I received my permit card giving me Indefinite Leave to Remain on this lovely island. Still dont understand Alan Partridge....
🤩PONI IS HIRING🤩 We are hiring for two roles to join the exciting
@csisponi
@csis_isp
@CSIS
team and work across our programs and growing research on deterrence and arms control. (1/)
Happy birthday to me, atop a mountain in Yorkshire. My birthday wish- extend New START already! (And maybe for a new President come November)
@McgeeAidan
photo credit
Here it is!!! Main points: ignoring emerging technology will make the NPT irrelevant. Technologies such as cyber, AI, and hypersonics impact on countries’ abilities to fulfil their NPT commitments, particularly progress towards nuclear disarmament 1/
Want to save arms control? Early career experts, send us your pitch to be ARMS CONTROL IDOL. Deadline 21 Aug. Finalists paired with a mentor and pitch to a panel of expert judges. Grand prize £2000!
@csisponi
@UKPONI
@WCAPSnet
@WIIS_Global
@EU_NonProlif
My views on the UK’s Integrated Review and nuclear doctrine. It includes 2 main changes: increase in warhead stockpile and more strategic ambiguity. Why the change? And what does it mean for UK disarmament efforts and the NPT RevCon?
@MIT_SSP
@KCL_CSSS
1/
"How to Get Away with a Nuclear Test": Putin's latest nuclear saber-rattling, U.S. and international responses, and what it means for the war in Ukraine.
@CSIS
@csisponi
@csis_isp
@ManagingtheAtom
Congratulating BASIC Board Member, Heather Williams (
@heatherwilly
), on her election to the Nuclear Security Working Group, a non-partisan group of experts working to promote discourse and build consensus on the United States’ most pressing nuclear issues!
Can a tweet start a nuclear war? 24 little hours until we release a new report on Twitter and crisis escalation with some answers, nightmare scenarios, and recommendations.
@CyberAlexi
@KCL_CSSS
As a
@nytimes
reader, this is disappointing reporting and very misleading. No NATO member has joined the TPNW. No NATO member has indicated an interest in joining TPNW. And there is plenty to prevent members from joining, in terms of what it would mean for participation in NATO.
A global treaty that would ban nuclear weapons is amassing support among voters and lawmakers in NATO’s 30 countries, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons said in a new report.
@csisponi
had 378 applications for one summer internship. 378. I don't see a problem with the nuclear pipeline. I see lots of amazing nextgen folks who want to get involved. Let's make sure we support and encourage them however we can.
On a totally non-nuclear-related note: I remain convinced that grilled halloumi is the most delicious thing on earth. Having one of those days when I think talking about food is our best hope for the future of humanity, as long as everyone agrees with me.
If you have not yet read this article in response to Karaganov's recent calls for pre-emptive nuclear strikes... you really should. Lots of insights into Russian nuclear debates. And how they perceive the US deterrent.
But here's what really worries me: New START was one of the last remaining channels of bilateral dialogue for the US and Russia. During the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the BCC was one of the only forums for engagement between Washington and Moscow. What now? 6/
Trend 2- Arms control is a growing topic of Russian disinformation. This includes false stories about the US cancelling meetings, denying visas, or violating various agreements, such as the BWC. Countering these narratives should be a priority for the US and NATO allies 3/
If you are one of my students and you are reading this, please take note: stop using passive voice. My repeated mention of this in more traditional forums seems to have been ignored. Maybe if it's on social media it will sink in.
Trend 1- Russia doesn't stick to arms control. Suspension of New START tracks with Russia's suspension of CFE in 2007, its violation of the INF Treaty, and basically abandoning the PNIs. This raises tough questions about whether or not to trust Russia in future arms control. 2/
Deterring Nuclear Weapons Use in Ukraine. My first Critical Questions piece for
@CSIS
@csis_isp
@csisponi
There's a lot of thoughtful analysis going around on this topic, but I highlight the importance of NATO unity in how we deter Putin.
There are 4 WW2 vets who were in the landing at Normandy on my flight to Paris, traveling for the 80th anniversary. Beautiful moment
@BostonLogan
@bostonpolice
@Delta
honoring these incredible heroes. 🥹
Without New START, the risks of misperception will only go up. This might be part of Russia's strategy, but it's still dangerous. Here's what I'm watching for: Moscow exceeding NST limits, explicit nuclear threats, efforts by either side to establish crisis comm channels /end
Big day for
@csisponi
@csis_isp
@CSIS
celebrating PONI’s 20th anniversary. Huge honor to host
@US_STRATCOM
Gen Cotton as our keynote and PONI newcomers and alumni. Conference topics covered future of deterrence, arms control, and impact of emerging tech.
A New Approach to Arms Control. In
@ForeignAffairs
@DrUlrichKuehn
and I argue that the United States should lead a new arms control agenda focused on managing behaviors rather than weapons.
“Arms control as we know it has come to an end. This means that the United States must convert the G7 pledge to induce ‘responsible nuclear behavior’ into a new agenda.”
We are thrilled at
@csisponi
@CSIS
to welcome
@luisrodaquino
and
@NarangVipin
as non-resident affiliates with PONI and look forward to working w them both on nextgen engagement and nuclear policy research
PONI is excited to welcome
@NarangVipin
as a non-resident Senior Associate and
@luisrodaquino
as a non-resident Adjunct Fellow to the team! 🎉
We look forward to closely working with these excellent advisers!
This is just woefully irresponsible: replace the only legally-binding commitment to disarmament with a treaty that isn't in force and doesn't have the support of a single nuclear possessor? The NPT ain't perfect, but it's the best we have 1/
This. Is. So. Good. The final segment w Lynn Eden is an incredibly powerful message for all nuclear analysts and really resonated. It asks some tough ethical questions. Congrats
@ushasahay
@WarOnTheRocks
Should be “required listening” on WMD courses
In the pilot episode of A Most Terrible Weapon, Usha looks at the very first nuclear war plans. Listen here, or subscribe in your preferred podcast app to get new episodes as they drop.
The fate of New START is really about Ukraine. Russia likely (unsuccessfully) attempted to use New START as leverage against the US to cease its support for Ukraine. And it's no coincidence the announcement comes on the heels of Biden's visit to Kyiv. 5/
Trend 3- Russia is increasing reliance on nuclear weapons. Moscow is relying on its nuclear arsenal to deter NATO conventional support or intervention in Ukraine. It's also expanding dual-capable systems to intentionally increase nuclear risks. 4/
This, too, aligns with Russia's strategy of increasing nuclear risks and bullying. But if the risks of nuclear use again rise in Ukraine, there are essentially no existing channels for crisis communication. 7/
We have lost an intellectual giant & incredibly kind human being. Michael was a mentor generous w his time and spirit. I miss him already. His work called on all of us to see the potential of arms control, so in honor, Im reupping a personal favorite:
We are deeply saddened to share the news that Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center and tireless advocate for international peace and security, passed away today at his home in Charlottesville, VA. Our thoughts are with Sandra, Misha, Joshua, and the entire family.
Today I gave a talk at
#NPT2022
about paradoxes and opportunities for a new initiative on irreversible nuclear disarmament. BLUF: the initiative raises fascinating questions about what irreversibility looks like and its drivers. NGOs should be a key part of dialogue going forward
Vaccinated!!!
(Look, i know everyone is doing this thing, but it seriously is a marvel of human ingenuity and determination, and maybe a bit of the inspiration we need to get thru this dumpster fire.)
Fun fact of the day: the pens Bush and Gorbachev used to sign START in 1991 were made from the metal of missiles destroyed under INF. Will there ever be a treaty signed with metal from missiles destroyed under New START?
What is the future of arms control- can it incorporate new technologies, involve multiple actors, and cross domains? Asymmetric arms control is a framework for rethinking these ?s w some scenarios for HGVs
@jststs
@KCL_CSSS
@DefenceResearch
@KCLSecurity
In latest issue of
@TWQgw
,
@Cox_NukePol
& I look at how AI might strengthen nuclear stability and contribute to arms control. Hopefully this opens up new thinking on opportunities, along with risks, of emerging technologies
@MIT_SSP
@KCL_CSSS
@KCLSecurity
HOPE RESTORED! We are currently reviewing proposals for Arms Control Idol and these are just so inspiring. Maybe arms control isn't dead.... Finalists will be notified on Friday 28 Aug, and be sure to join us for the Grand Final on 15 Sept. Register here:
A few thoughts on us announcement on INF. Up front: HOW the US withdraws is as important as WHY it withdraws. The way this happened is dangerous for NATO. 1/
On 27 July
@CSIS
@csis_isp
@csisponi
will be hosting Sir Stephen Lovegrove, UK Nat Sec Advisor, for a speech on the future of arms control! I'll be listening for comments on emerging tech &risk reduction in a new strategic environment. Register and tune in
Recently got an invite for an event, "Wine and Nukes." I eagerly opened the email then realized.... oh, right. I'm co-hosting this. Thanks
@WIISUK
@theELN
If you haven't registered already, come hang out with us on the eve of the P5 meetings in London:
My brain hurts. Thanks
@MarkSmithWP
and everyone who participated yesterday and today in the workshop. Learned loads about TPNW in particular. Common ground is hard to find but its a fun adventure w good people. Now we
@KCL_CSSS
have to go think about what it all means.....
On 2-3 July I was a facilitator to the
@StateISN
#CEND
Working Group
#CEWG
meeting in DC. There are some rumors going around about what this was and what it wasn’t, so here are a few take-aways (it was all Chatham House Rule). 1/
Honored to support
@sbidgood
@CNS_Updates
Young Women in Nonproliferation. I remember how daunting it was starting out in the nuclear field, so look forward to hearing from younger women about their experiences and how we can support them
As part of a
@Livermore_Lab
@CGSR
paper collection on "Morality and Nuclear Weapons", I've offered an analysis of papal statements on nuclear weapons, just war, arms control, and nuclear deterrence. All papers available here: 1/