Alex Joosten @joosteninvestor Twitter profile

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@TennisBlogger1

Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇨🇦 Canada bankruptcies 532 companies. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀! Chart: @tEconomics

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 S&P 500 earnings yield minus 3-month T-bill yield -0.4764% In bubble territory! 🫧 H/t: @C_Barraud #SPX $SPY

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇺🇸 US full time employment -1.551 million YoY. 𝗜𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇺🇸 US real retail sales -0.31% YoY. Retail sales flatline before a #recession !

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US household ratio of liabilities to net worth 13.05% Lowest since the early 1980s! H/t: @WallStJesus

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇺🇸 US full time employees -1.16 million YoY. In #recession territory!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

9 months

🇺🇸 US corporate net interest payments $114 billion. Lowest since 1978! Locked in debt at cheap funding rates when the Fed had rates at zero and invested cash to earn higher interest income as the Fed raised rates.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 month

🇺🇸 US real retail sales -0.68% YoY. Retail sales flatline before a #recession !

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇺🇸 US Chicago PMI (Business Barometer) 35.4 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆! Chart: @Vetta_Fi

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

3 months

🇺🇸 US real retail sales 0.77% YoY. Retail sales flatline before a #recession !

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US credit card delinquency rates in Global Financial Crisis territory! H/t: Apollo

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

5 months

🇺🇸 US real retail sales -1.6% YoY. Retail sales flatline before a #recession .

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 S&P 500 duration of the market rally from the bear market low in October: 240 days. History suggests it would be unprecedented if the market is in a bear market rally. H/t: Edward Jones, FactSet #SPX $SPY

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 month

🇺🇸 US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -14.2% off its previous peak! In #recession territory! Chart: @Vetta_Fi

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

4 months

🇺🇸 US full time employees -0.41% YoY. In #recession territory!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

4 months

🇺🇸 US M2 money supply +0.84% YoY. Back in expansion.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

5 months

🇺🇸 US federal government current tax receipts -7.51% YoY. In #recession territory!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇺🇸 US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -14.1% off its previous peak. In #recession territory! Chart: @Vetta_Fi

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 S&P 500 forward 12 months P/E was ~ 21 at the start of 2022. Rates rose and P/E multiples compressed. S&P is rallying with forward EPS falling. At this pace, it’ll get back to a forward P/E of 21 again with higher risk free rates as if nothing happened. 🤨 H/t: @MichaelKantro

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸🌍 US equities outperforms rest of world by ~ 2.8 standard deviations from historical relative price.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

4 months

🇺🇸 US personal saving rate 3.2% 𝗜𝗻 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

9 months

@KobeissiLetter Maybe homebuilders are meeting demand by building smaller lower priced homes.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🇨🇳 China’s foreign direct investment: -$11.8 billion. An all-time record low! “Highlighting how foreign companies are pulling money out of the country due to geopolitical tensions and higher interest rates elsewhere.” H/t: @business

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇨🇳 China consumer confidence 88.2 𝗔𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀! Chart: @tEconomics

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

5 months

🇺🇸 US full time employees -1% YoY. 𝗜𝗻 #𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US bank loans commercial real estate, 2 week change less than -$30 billion! All time record low! Data collected started June 2004. H/t: @AndreasSteno #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🇺🇸 US permanent job losses for September +19.9% YoY! H/t: @GameofTrades_ #unemployment #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 Fed pauses on rate hikes lead to stock rallies. But I expect these future short term bear market rallies on rumors of a pause or even an actual pause. History shows bottoms of markets occur when the Fed cuts rates. H/t: @ISABELNET_SA

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

11 months

🇺🇸 US 2 year/10 year Treasury yield curve is steepening from a low of -1.08% to now -0.47% Common pattern before a #recession . H/t: DoubleLine

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

6 months

🇺🇸 US Real Gross Domestic Income -0.1% YoY. In #recession territory with a perfect track record! H/t: @GameofTrades_

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

27 days

🇨🇳 China consumer confidence 86.4 𝗔𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀! Chart: @tEconomics

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 83% correlation between US household non-equity asset, as a % of total liquid assets and S&P 500, 10-year forward price return. *Poor liquidity —> lower returns. Investors should prepare for lower S&P returns moving forward. H/t: @WillieDelwiche

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🇺🇸 US non-revolving consumer credit -9.8% monthly change. In #recession territory! Chart: @JeffWeniger

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

6 months

🇺🇸 US Leading Economic Index -7% YoY. GDP growth QoQ +3.3% annualized. Unprecedented divergence! Excess fiscal stimulus deficits of 6.3% of GDP in 2023 probably working against monetary tightening, keeping the economy out of #recession . Chart: @TheBondFreak

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

4 months

@zerohedge 🇺🇸 US federal government interest payments to GDP 3.7% 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗤𝟭 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟵!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

8 months

🇺🇸 US real imports of goods and services -1.7% YoY. In #recession territory! Going back to 1954.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 3 month sum of US bankruptcies (cos. w/liabilities $50mn+): 50 In recession territory! Chart: @DiMartinoBooth #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

3 months

🇺🇸 US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -13.1% off its previous peak. 𝗜𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆! Chart: @Vetta_Fi

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

11 months

🇺🇸 US Cass Freight Index: shipments -10.6% YoY. Deeper in #recession territory!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 S&P 500 dividend yield minus 3-month T-bill yield -3.658% H/t: @WinfieldSmart #SPX $SPY

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 The rising spread between the US leading and coincident economic indicators suggests initial unemployment claims will rise! Monetary policy acts with long and variable lags. H/t: @ISABELNET_SA #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

@DefenceU The U.S. stands with Ukraine.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

5 months

🇺🇸 421 consecutive days with an inverted 2/10 year US Treasury yield curve. An all-time record high! A historically reliable leading #recession indicator may be distorted due to unprecedented high federal fiscal deficits propping the economy. Chart: @StrategasRP

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

4 months

🇺🇸 US commercial real estate prices -7.5% YoY. 𝗜𝗻 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆! Commercial real estate loans are about 30% of total assets for small banks.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

@MacroAlf 🇺🇸 Since 1935, S&P 500 bear market bottoms when its trailing P/E + CPI YoY is 20 or below. Currently: 26.22 H/t: @ISABELNET_SA #stockmarket

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 Valuation of the S&P 500 varies greatly when excluding just 6 stocks. H/t: @SoberLook #investing #equities #valuation

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

3 months

@KobeissiLetter 🇺🇸 US household size decreasing while house sizes increasing. Chart: @bloomberg

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

6 months

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 is performing the best at this point than during any other past inversion of the 10Y and 3M Treasury yield curve since 1968. H/t: @DonMiami3

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

5 months

🇨🇳 China consumer confidence 88.9 𝗔𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀! Chart: @tEconomics

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US weekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million and the high yield credit spread. Unsustainable divergence! Chart: Apollo #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

3 months

🇺🇸 US Conference Board Employment Trends Index -7.04% from recent peak. A decline associated with #recession ! Chart: @TheKingCourt

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 Since 1935, S&P 500 bear market bottoms when its trailing P/E + CPI YoY is below 20. Currently: 26.22 H/t: @ISABELNET_SA #stockmarket

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

3 months

🇨🇳 China foreign direct investment -27.1% YoY. 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟵! Chart: @tEconomics

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US unemployment level - permanent job losers +18.9% YoY. In #recession territory! No, there isn’t an unusual low base effect influencing the calculation when looking at the data. It’s real.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇮🇹The ECB purchases Italian government bonds at the expense of others. Providing an illusion of stability and sustainability. 61% correlation between Italy net issuance of BTPs by the central government versus ECB PEPP and PSPP net purchases since Jan 2022. H/t: @RobinBrooksIIF

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US bank credit, all commercial banks 0.52% YoY. Lowest since October 2011!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 Share of U.S. small business expected to increase prices 24%. Possibly a leading indicator for a lower core PCE. H/t: @PkZweifel #inflation #FederalReserve

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US bank credit, all commercial banks -0.2% YoY. Lowest since July 2011! #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🇺🇸 US M2 money supply -3.58% YoY. In #recession and #depression territory!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 Sharp increases in net % of US domestic banks tightening lending standards like now, have correlated to rises in #unemployment . H/t: @JeffWeniger #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🌍 World manufacturing PMIs GDP weighted 47.6 Lowest since COVID and the GFC! H/t: @PkZweifel #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US real imports of goods and services -4.75% YoY. In #recession territory going back to 1948 with the one exception in 1951.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US ISM manufacturing PMI new orders - inventories (6-month moving average). In severe recession territory! H/t: @johnauthers #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 The forward-looking economic indicator US conference board expectations minus current conditions -83.10 Deep in impending recession territory! Chart: @ISABELNET_SA #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🇺🇸 US jobs numbers have been revised lower for the 8th time in the past 9 months. H/t: @zerohedge

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing: expected average employee workweek -12.1 *Lowest since GFC. Artificial demand in the economy decreases, less demand for labor, less upward pressure on wages. Wages by itself in this instance wouldn’t be causing price rises. H/t: @SoberLook

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🌎 World manufacturing PMI GDP weighted surveys 48.3 In global #recession territory! H/t: @PkZweifel

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

12 days

🇺🇸 US real retail and food services sales -0.7% YoY. Retail sales flatline before a #recession !

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

4 months

🇨🇳 China’s Real Estate Climate Index 92.1; Consumer Confidence 89.1 𝗔𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀! Chart: @Bloomberg

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

7 months

🇺🇸 Almost 75% of US equity market capitalization accounted for the top 10% of stocks by size. In bubble and Great Depression territory! H/t: @PeterBerezinBCA

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 The 10 year Treasury yield - 3 month bill yields -1.66% Not only the most inverted since the early 80s, but also as much as the Great Depression! H/t: @michael_venuto #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🌍 World manufacturing PMIs GDP weighted 47.6 Deeper in #recession territory! Chart: @PkZweifel

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 S&P 500 tech sector relative performance is back to the bubble peak! H/t: @ISABELNET_SA #SPX $SPY

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🌍 “Global monetary stimulus tends to lead global manufacturing PMI by 8 months.” - @ISABELNET_SA A contraction inevitable. Chart: @topdowncharts

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US stocks have been a leading indicator of the economy. Historically, the S&P 500 recovers six months before #recession ends. Good reason not to time the market. Chart: @murphycharts

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇸 US 2s 10s Treasury yield curve always steepens as recession starts. *Low for this year -0.85%, currently -0.55%. H/t: @ISABELNET_SA

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

10 months

🇺🇸 S&P 500 performance is approaching the average of previous 10Y and 3M US Treasury yield curve inversion (ex-COVID) cycles going back to 1968. Suggests downside for equities ahead! Chart: @DonMiami3 #SPX $SPY

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

9 months

@WallStreetSilv 🇺🇸 Soaring payments for homes! H/t: @GameofTrades_

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇨🇳 China’s nominal real estate investment -20.2% YoY! H/t: @PkZweifel #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US temporary help services -3.42% YoY. In #recession territory!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇹🇼 Taiwan export orders -24.91% YoY. In #recession territory! Chart: @MacroMicroMe

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 340 US corporate bankruptcy filings in the first half of the year. Highest since 2010! H/t: @Mayhem4Markets #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

9 months

🇺🇸 US continuing jobless claims continues to closely track the average of past #recession cycles. Using the months from first inversion of the 10Y3M Treasury yield curve since 1968 (excluding COVID). H/t: @DonMiami3

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 NASDAQ 100 now trading around 26 times 12-month forward estimated earnings. 10-year average is around 21. H/t: BBG

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

11 months

🇺🇸 US 10 year Treasury real yields keep rising. Now at 2.48% The rising risk free rate from which stocks discount future earnings is putting pressure on the Nasdaq 100 forward P/E ratio, now at ~ 23x. H/t: Bloomberg

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇨🇳 China’s share in gross domestic product of construction and real estate activity ~ 28%. Drawdown of real estate under construction -16.1%! New construction starts -56.3%! H/t: @MacroKova #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 US commercial real estate % of properties written down greater than 70% Worst since Q4 of 2008! H/t: NDR, @dlacalle_IA #recession

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

5 months

🇺🇸 US Fed Financial Stress Index, measures the degree of financial stress in the markets, came out at -0.937 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟳! Financial conditions too easy.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🥇Assets’ performance around previous recessions: 1. Gold 2. US Treasuries 3. Corporate Debt 4. Commodities 5. S&P 500 H/t: @MenthorQpro

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

3 months

🇺🇸 The four largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 23.62% of the S&P 500. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟲𝟰! Chart: @biancoresearch

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

9 months

🇺🇸 US real retail sales -0.7% YoY. Typically retail sales are flat ahead of #recession as is the case now. Although the indicator is above pre-pandemic trend.

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 years

🇺🇦🇷🇺 How soon the invasion of Ukraine ends might depend on Russia’s hard currency inflows it gets from its energy exports. Which strengthens the Ruble & loosens financial conditions. Without this backdrop, Russia could face a balance of payment crisis. Chart: @RobinBrooksIIF

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇨🇳 China bank withdrawals in April 3.9 trillion yuan ($538 billion). 𝗔𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵! Chart: @Bloomberg

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

@cdu424 @WallStJesus 🇺🇸 US household net worth down 2.7% YoY!

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

2 months

🇺🇸 12.5% of US consumers expecting better business conditions over next 6 months. 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟭! Chart: @KevRGordon

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

6 months

🇺🇸 US net percentage of domestic banks reporting increased willingness to make consumer installment loans -17.9% In #recession territory!

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14

35

Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 The correlation between the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the S&P 500 is 86.68% In the most recent two weeks, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $391.5 billion or 4.69% Chart: @ISABELNET_SA @LanceRoberts #SPX $SPY #Fed

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10

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Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

1 year

🇺🇸 It has been 9 months since the first inversion of the 10 year-3 month Treasury yield curve. US industrial production -0.4% YoY. If history is a guide, employment is next! H/t: @intheyield #recession

2

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34

Alex Joosten

@joosteninvestor

7 months

🇨🇳 MSCI China Index forward P/E is at a 50% discount to the world equity index. A record low! H/t: @RBAdvisors

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17

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