This chart shows how quickly the equity risk premium decreased since the Great Recession and how the stock market went up.
On October 1, 2018, the Equity Risk Premium = 0.0% just before the market crash. It wasn't a coincidence at all.
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🇺🇸 Returns
When the real S&P 500 index is very extended from its exponential growth trend line, it can take a long time to recover from a bear market, despite the Fed's interventions
👉
h/t
@LanceRoberts
#markets
#sp500
$spx
#spx
#returns
#investing
🇺🇸 S&P 500
When the S&P 500 posts a gain of more than 10% in November and December, it tends to perform strongly in Q1 and the following 12 months, with an average 19.5% increase in value seen a year later since 1950
👉
h/t
@RyanDetrick
#sp500
#spx
$spx
🇺🇸 S&P 500
During election years, the S&P 500 tends to trend sideways in Q1. Investors are typically cautious about the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections and tend to adopt a more conservative approach
👉
h/t
@MikeZaccardi
#sp500
$spx
#spx
🇺🇸 S&P 500
The first quarter of an election year often exhibits a sluggish performance for the S&P 500 index, but as the year progresses, the market tends to regain strength, ultimately delivering a solid performance
👉
h/t
@RyanDetrick
$spx
#spx
#sp500
🇺🇸 S&P 500
A significant annual gain of 20% in the S&P 500 index is often indicative of continued positive performance in the following year, with a median return of 12.1% seen a year later since 1950
👉
h/t
@RyanDetrick
#spx
$spx $spy
#stocks
#returns
🇺🇸 VIX
The VIX typically rises in the months leading up to US presidential elections due to increased uncertainty. Will it follow its seasonal trend?
👉
h/t
@Callum_Thomas
#VIX
#volatility
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 index has been up more than 10% at the middle of the year, the full year has been positive 100% of the time with a median gain of 26.4%
👉
h/t
@RyanDetrick
$spx
#spx
📌 Gold
US real interest rates have typically had an inverse relationship with the price of gold, as investors tend to shift their investments between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of holding gold
👉
@BofAML
#gold
#rates
🇺🇸 Yield
Historically, when the cash yield is higher than the earnings yield, this can be seen as a headwind for equities, as investors may be more inclined to allocate their funds towards cash investments rather than stocks
👉
h/t
@BofAML
#yield
#yields
🇺🇸 Returns
When the real S&P 500 index is very extended from its exponential growth trend line, it can take a long time to recover from a bear market, despite the Fed's interventions
👉
h/t
@LanceRoberts
#markets
#sp500
$spx
#spx
#returns
#investing
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Does the current concentration of the S&P 500 in the five largest stocks suggest a potential bull trap, particularly as it is more pronounced than during the dotcom bubble?
👉
h/t
@BofAML
#markets
#tech
$spx
#spx
$spy $ndx
#stocks
#stockmarket
🇺🇸 Small Caps
Investing in small-cap stocks during periods when they are trading at a significant discount to large-cap stocks may present attractive opportunities for long-term investors
👉
h/t
@BofAML
#valuation
#stocks
$spx
#smallcaps
$rut
#equities
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Seasonality provides a tailwind, with June tending to be a strong month for US stocks in the fourth year of the US presidential cycle
👉
h/t
@RyanDetrick
#sp500
$spx
#spx
#stocks
🇺🇸 S&P 500
The contraction of the Fed's balance sheet tends to be a headwind for the S&P 500, as reduced liquidity in the financial system may have negative implications for equity markets
👉
h/t
@LanceRoberts
#Fed
#balancesheet
#sp500
$spx
#spx
#stocks