Jensen Ahokovi @jahokovi Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@stolen_dreamer

Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

6/ The reality is that housing in the cities is so expensive because the urban Bobos 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒐 𝒑𝒂𝒚 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒊𝒕. In the language of microeconomics, which YIMBYs seem to have a hard time understanding: the demand curve for rent in London is inelastic.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@MorlockP

Christopher Clarke

@EconChrisClarke

5 months

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) are two different publications. We cannot use descriptions about how the CES works to disprove the CPI. The tweet is going viral due to data illiteracy and partisanship.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

3 months

Idk whether I should be delighted or frightened lol

Ethan Mollick

@emollick

3 months

Full analysis from a single command. Nice.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

This app is a constant reminder of why ppl should study causal inference:

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

ANOTHER CHART YIMBYs DON’T WANT YOU TO SEE. 🚨 In markets where increased supply drives down price you can 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚. Here is the oil price when the fracking revolution increased production. You do not see these dynamics in the housing market data. 🏠

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

PSA: you can’t find *causality* by lagging X and fitting it to a non-lagged Y, i.e., Granger causality ≠ causality. Thanks for coming to my Time Series Econometrics TED talk.

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

I used US data to highlight US specific effect of fracking. To fit a full supply-demand graph you can use global data. To capture the causality you can lag global production and fit with a lag to prices. In supply-demand-price markets you CAN fit the data. Not in housing.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@philippilk What’s the counterfactual for home prices when you observe in *observational* data a positive correlation between the construction and home price time series?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@MorlockP Bro you mixed up the CPI and CES and called the CPI itself, “CPI-like”😭😭😭 This has nothing to do with @besttrousers place of work 💀

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@philippilk And why should we think the oil and housing markets are comparable?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

7 months

@MZAF25 There’s good evidence to suggest that supply-driven increases in affordability outweigh amenity-driven decreases in affordability. Ex:

Pennington_JMP.pdf

Shared with Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@philippilk Hold up, chat. This post wasn’t satire!?😭😭😭

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

3 months

Check out our latest @UHEROnews brief where @dylantmoore and I discuss the state of ‘economic connectedness’ in Hawaii 🤙🏽 #econtwitter

Wealth by Association? How Social Networks Drive Inequality in Hawaii - UHERO

Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual’s share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but...

uhero.hawaii.edu

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

1) the community note pinned to one of your last tweets already does a good job of explaining why your position is misleading (see attached). I.e., your argument hinges on the assumption that supply increases in housing are not leading to price decreases. 2) Some other evidence:

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

I get good engagement on here. There’s smart thoughtful people. But on the housing issue you do not get good, well-argued engagement. @jahokovi if you have an argument about the chart SPELL IT OUT. Seriously.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@StatisticUrban @philippilk @mattyglesias FWIW, we should’ve known something was up when he unironically used this as evidence:

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

THE CHART YIMBY KIDS DON’T WANT YOU TO SEE: House prices and new construction are POSITIVELY correlated. I.e. when there is more supply prices are rising and when there is less they are falling. The OPPOSITE of the YIMBY argument. 🏠🤪

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

#ATT what if we all need to restart our phones at the same time???

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

@kylefbutts Applied ppl waiting for the R/Stata package:

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

7 months

@TheHistoryOfTh2 @wil_da_beast630 See @metrics52 research on this: . There absolutely is a causal effect.

Joshua Angrist Research Summary - Blueprint Labs

blueprintlabs.mit.edu

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@gentschev @philippilk @amoralorealis @philippilk ’s data is unfortunately just a correlation between two time series in observational data

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

How every casual poker player (like me) reasons 😭:

Daniel Litt

@littmath

10 months

my opponent: *puts a straight flush down on the table* me, having gone all in on a pair of sevens: the Bayesian priors are pretty damning. I can explain, but I shouldn’t have to—the probability you’d have a straight flush is vanishingly low.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

@causalinf Looking forward to your episode with @PeterBoettke . He’s a wealth of knowledge!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

Granger causality - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

3 months

Spent the last hour drilling into my head the derivation of the asymptotic distribution of the MLE estimator — someone plz tell me I will use this again in the future 😫

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

4 months

Lots could be going on in the data tho… seems very possible there’s a lot of selection going on, i.e., ppl less inclined to start families sort into denser areas Idk any work out there that seriously investigates this relationship, but I’d be interested to see if there is!

More Births

@MoreBirths

4 months

A new book on the way by economist @bryan_caplan is called "Build, Baby, Build." He argues the panacea to housing shortages is to toss out zoning rules and build vertically. That would be a disaster since very dense vertical cities are associated with ultra-low fertility. A 🧵.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

@Wootenomics @MarketPowerYT Let me guess: Diminishing marginal utility? 😂

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

@Jon_Hartley_ What's been the justification for PSZ's approach?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

@BrankoMilan Depends on the context behind those complaints.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

7 months

@Carina_Amyth @TheEmoDragon Never reason from an accounting identity!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

4 months

Great thread on the Piketty v. Auten-Splinter debate

Yohan Iddawela

@yohaniddawela

4 months

For decades, this curve summed up the mainstream understanding of inequality within a country. However, recently, this curve has been the source of a fierce debate. Here's the breakdown:

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

Well, if you have a positively skewed distribution of grades, average doesn’t seem that bad!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

6 months

*sigh* When will they realize they need to adjust for inflation 🤦🏽‍♂️

Gritty is the Way

@Gritty20202

6 months

Something's got to give.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

@JosephPolitano The best city building sim just got better

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@cameron_pfiffer Mostly agree, though recent advances in the literature on synthetic estimators seem somewhat promising, I.e. synthetic diff-in-diff or matrix completion

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

@td_dion Much easier to blame somebody other than yourself (local governments)

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

7 months

Hey Alex, I’ll take “Common & Lazy Arguments from the Left” for $500!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

Weird regression tree

The Redheaded libertarian

@TRHLofficial

10 months

Wait a minute-

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

11 months

@EconChrisClarke On that note, Chris Conlon (one of the paper’s authors) has a great interview here: with David Beckworth.

Chris Conlon on the Post-COVID Inflation Surge and the Greedflation Narrative

Episode · Macro Musings with David Beckworth · Chris Conlon is an associate professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business where he focuses on industrial organization economics and...

open.spotify.com

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

4 months

Here we go again

Daniel Litt

@littmath

4 months

Flip 300 fair coins, in a grid with 3 rows and 100 columns. For each 𝙷𝙷 𝚃𝚃 in the resulting pattern of heads (𝙷) and tails (𝚃), Alice gets a point. For each 𝙷𝚃 𝙷𝚃 Bob gets a point (example in next tweet). Who is more likely to end up with the most points, Alice or Bob?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

I’ll be on KITV News this afternoon at 4 p.m. HST discussing housing policy. Tune in!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

Big props to the camera man 🙌🏾

Curiosity

@MAstronomers

10 months

This is what the entire observable Universe in one image look likes.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

@Mrs_Meowmerz Heck, I struggled through Calc II 😅 You got this!!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

@lymanstoneky Most papers I’ve read have found that new construction has local spatial effects on prices i.e. prices decrease in closer vicinity to construction. For example: Help me make sense of this.

[PDF] Do new housing units in your backyard raise your rents | Semantic Scholar

There is a growing debate about whether new housing units increase rents for immediately surrounding apartments. Some argue new market-rate development produces a supply effect, which should allevi...

www.semanticscholar.org

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

@pedrohcgs A lot of people in these replies seem to prefer a 2-monitor setup. But let’s not forget that there’s likely a lot of self-selection going on here! (Get the ultra wide 😆)

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

3 months

@lee_ohanian @GeorgeSelgin Wow I didn’t know that… interesting

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

“YIMBYs don’t understand supply & demand!” *ignores London’s supply curve*

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

This encapsulates the problem with YIMBYs. They don’t actually understand supply and demand graphs. The demand curve is based on preferences. If people are willing to pay extortionate amounts for e.g. rent, the market will take very high prices even with no increase in demand.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@philippilk it's not fair to accuse someone of not providing evidence when your "evidence" is the correlation between two time series in *aggregate* *observational* data. And no, fitting a lag of building permits to home prices does not find causality.

Philip Pilkington

@philippilk

5 months

@t848m0 You make a claim, you provide evidence. If you ever get that through your head you might start doing work that’s worth a twopence. Then you might publish under your own name and not hide. Likelihood of this happening: 2% or so I’d say.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

3 months

@causalinf Have you tried using Stata/R with it?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

@besttrousers @KhoaVuUmn

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

OMG

Daily Loud

@DailyLoud

9 months

BREAKING: Rockstar is revealing “Grand Theft Auto 6” this week with the official trailer coming soon according to Bloomberg.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

It’s one thing to study incentives, and it’s another to be the one being incentivized… oh how the turn tables #EconTwitter

Sawyer Merritt

@SawyerMerritt

10 months

NEWS: The U.S. Treasury Department today issued new guidance on how a $7,500 EV tax credit can be used as a point-of-sale rebate starting in January. Starting Jan. 1, consumers can transfer the credits to a car dealer, effectively lowering the vehicle’s purchase price:

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

3 months

@KAErdmann @Econoboi @DrCameronMurray Murray had an interesting intro with his historical anecdotes (e.g., the diary of Darwin), but I think he incorrectly frames the discussion from the get-go. YIMBYs obviously know that housing can be expensive without regulations!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

7 months

‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️

Elizabeth Warren

@ewarren

7 months

40 years ago, a typical single-family home in Greater Boston sold for $79.4k—about 4.5X a Boston Public School teacher’s salary. Today, that home would go for nearly 11X what that teacher makes now. We must bring down costs, which means we need more supply—plain-old Econ 101.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

8 months

@CatoRiccardo @bh_aakash @SantiagoCC95 Love this concept!!

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

Meaningful change can only come if we build more housing!

Governor Josh Green

@GovJoshGreenMD

5 months

The Maui wildfires uncovered a clear truth, which is we have too many short-term rentals owned by too many individuals on the mainland. Our people deserve housing in Hawai’i, especially those most affected by the worst disaster in our state’s history.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

‘Twas overconsumption according to APUSH

Cameron Harwick 👾🏛

@C_Harwick

10 months

It's a crime we let historians teach the Great Depression.

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

I’d assume that a certificate of completion would entice more sign ups. Or maybe that’s just the signaling hypothesis within me lol @bryan_caplan

John A. List

@Econ_4_Everyone

1 year

Our Economics for Everyone website is live, and free! Please spread the word! Sign up for updates on the site--we are looking for HS and college students/schools! More content coming soon; our trailer is up now, which leads with: is college worth it?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

4 months

#EconTwitter what are some cool/lesser known microdata sets that are publicly available?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

Incarceration rates are endogenous!!

SDL

@SocDoneLeft

10 months

VIOLENT CRIME Dem-run states have 2 times (!) lower incarceration rates. Yet rates of violent crime are similar (or slightly lower) than Rep-run states. Caging millions of people did not "solve" violence. Shocker! 🧵

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

4 months

@arthurturrell So cool! Thanks! 🤙🏽

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

1 year

@maiamindel Idk. Something abt limits I guess

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

@StarlyChili Surely Chile placed on an *axe handle* would either look like a pickaxe or a sword no? 😭

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

4 months

@MortenStostad How much of this is explained by housing costs?

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

“You’re an Econ major?” “Yeah” “So you wanna go into business?”

Jason Harrison

@nominalthoughts

5 months

“You’re an economics major?” “Yeah” “What school of thought do you follow?”

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

5 months

AT&T outage = free exogenous shock for paper idea I have yet to think of 😆 #EconTwitter #att #outage

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

10 months

I was struggling with learning the matrix completion estimator from Athey et al., but I stumbled upon this very helpful vid from @causalinf . If it helped me, I’m sure it could help you! #EconTwitter

#CodeChella 2021 - video 10 (Athey, et al. 2021)

In this video, I discuss a recent paper in 2021 JASA by Athey, et al. on matrix completion methods with nuclear norm regularization for panel data. While it...

www.youtube.com

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

11 months

@aidthoughts Me who struggled with Calc II: 👁️👄👁️

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Jensen Ahokovi

@jahokovi

9 months

@EstefanoRubio @UChi_Economics Really cool! Definitely adding to my reading list. 🤙🏽

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