The best part about this
@ChannelNewsAsia
interview with
#Myanmar
's UN Ambassador U Kyaw Moe Tun is when he says he is happy because his parents are proud of him for his decision to use his position to reject the military regime. So heartwarming.
By rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, President Biden indicates he’s more interested in the views of the citizens of Paris than in the jobs of the citizens of Pittsburgh. This agreement will do little to affect the climate and will harm the livelihoods of Americans.
So much for hoping junta
#2
Soe Win would take a different line from supremo Min Aung Hlaing or might be a dark horse to bet on in any palace coup scenario. Soe Win doubled down on junta rhetoric & anti-NLD hardline stance in a speech in Taunggyi
#Myanmar
To all my friends, activists, journalists and democracy lovers in
#Burma
#Myanmar
, stay safe, stay strong & know that the world is watching and cheering for you.
"ASEAN...is embarking on a high stakes gamble where it could risk its already shaky reputation by allowing a ruthless dictator to stonewall attempts to resolve the crisis in Myanmar, while giving him the attention and legitimacy he craves," writes
@hcregan
"it is vital that
#Myanmar
’s international partners continue to support humanitarian and development work. The political and economic consequences of the coup should be borne by the Tatmadaw, not the people."
@FrontierMM
#WhatsHappeningInMaynmar
MAH's decision to attend ASEAN summit reveals a few things:
-He's confident enough of regime stability to leave country & not fear a usurper;
-He wants legitimacy that summit will give badly enough to take that risk;
-ASEAN isn't going to cut off junta.
"Beijing can’t play both sides for much longer. It may soon have to choose between backing the junta enthusiastically or turning its back on the regime entirely,"
@ANachemson
writes on Chinese interests in
#Myanmar
@ForeignPolicy
Burgener is headed to Bangkok today on a regional tour hoping to gain access to
#Myanmar
. As
@ConnellyAL
has said, Bangkok's support could be instrumental for a coordinated regional response. UN access is also vital for a diplomatic solution to the coup.
Biden mentions
#Myanmar
coup
@StateDept
: "We've been in close cooperation with our allies and partners to bring together the international community to address the military coup in Burma."
This meeting should never have happened. White House gave Lavrov a podium to peddle the Kremlin’s narrative (which syncs w/ its own & that of GOP). This is at odds with American national security interests & our own National Defense Strategy, which labels Russia a major adversary
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: "We have highlighted once again that all speculation about our alleged interference in domestic processes in the US are baseless. There are no facts that would support that ...no one has given us this proof because it simply does not exist"
Pretty jaw-dropping footage of the Vietnamese CG ramming an Indonesian Navy patrol vessel after the latter detained 12 Vietnamese fishermen aboard a vessel accused of fishing within Indonesia’s waters.
Bravo TNI !!! Mengusir Coast Guard Vietnam saat menangkap kapal pencurian ikan atau illegal fishing di perairan Natuna Indonesia 🇮🇩
@kkpgoid
@susipudjiastuti
#Myanmar
National Unity Govt says it will accept name
#Rohingya
, abolish 1982 Citizenship Law based on 135 officially recognized ethnic groups & release a new draft law. This is significant for two main reasons [1/2]:
@Voaburmese
"A stronger and more secure mechanism for delivering CDM support could be crucial to the movement’s chances of success, analysts argue, particularly if the struggle drags on for several months or even more than a year."
@FrontierMM
#SupportCDM
#MyanmarCoup
"I've also been in touch with leader McConnell to discuss our shared concerns about the situation in Burma, and we are united in our resolve. There can be no doubt in a democracy force should never seek to overrule the will of the people..."
This further exposes the haplessness of ASEAN special envoy Erywan's call for a ceasefire. Doesn't help he has overwhelmingly engaged w/ the
#Myanmar
military junta, estranging the NUG, wasting time & losing opportunity for compromise. Erywan's position is effectively toothless.
BREAKING: Acting President Duwa Lashi La of
#Myanmar
’s
@NUGMyanmar
gov announces that from today Sep 7, 2021 the defensive war against the military junta has been launched — urges the citizens to revolt against the junta in every corner of the country.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
"This is the only army on planet Earth which for seven decades has never stopped fighting," Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based defense analyst, told Nikkei. "That does something to men's heads, and at the rank and file level what it does is it brutalizes."
"The military can no longer claim that its Constitution is an appropriate framework for the future of Myanmar. Not only was it drafted in an undemocratic manner and in an atmosphere of repression, but now the military has failed to comply with its terms."
"Lee said China had to give countries the “space to grow, to develop to compete with one another peacefully and not be held down or squatted upon”, as the US had done in the last 80 years, in order for the region to prosper."
I have a new report on the 2021 military coup in
#Myanmar
out with the Foreign Policy Association. It's written for a general audience & may be helpful for MA-level PoliSci courses (and hopefully anyone else interested). DM me if you'd like a soft copy!
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
Delighted to find out I have been selected as a Non-resident WSD-Handa Fellow
@PacificForum
for 2021. I look forward to working with the outstanding team at Pacific Forum and learning from their wide community of scholars & policymakers!
No surprise 🇲🇲 Min Aung Hlaing won't be attending next month's US-ASEAN Special Summit. But 🇵🇭 Duterte? That's somewhat puzzling. A snub would've been no surprise in 2017-20 but at this point he must calculate he has nothing to gain from a trip on way out:
This blatant regime propaganda serves no purpose but carrying MAH's water. Not sure why
@Diplomat_APAC
ran it: "In my recent dialogue with [Sr. Gen] Min Aung Hlaing, he personally reaffirmed his commitment to restoring a civilian government in the future."
Very pleased to share my latest peer-reviewed publication on hedging in Southeast Asia
@IR_AsiaPacific
, the result of three years of research, writing, editing & revising. A brief 🧵summary:
Let's normalize talking with
#Myanmar
's National Unity Government. 👏 to Malaysia's Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah for taking the lead here within ASEAN (unless there are others I'm unaware of engaging with the NUG):
Today it's worth re-upping this August story, about how Trump's struggling NYC hotel reversed a two-year trend of declining rental revenue after travelers with crown prince of Saudi Arabia booked rooms there at the last minute.
Vietnam confronts China in South China Sea. India confronts China over border disputes. Both maintain relatively stable relations w/ Beijing. Consider Philippines: Duterte has kowtowed, but failed to achieve anything. Why should Malaysia follow suit?
Simply justifying inaction? Btw Singapore transcends its geographical size to legally challenge Malaysia, a bigger neighbor, over the Pedra Branca aka Pulau Batu Putih dispute. Size is relative, but one can also transcend size if you set your mind at it.
"Southeast Asian claimant states may also fear that if they do not join the fight against China, and China later prevails over the United States and Taiwan, they would be the next victims of Chinese hegemony."
"Beijing is altering the territorial status quo in Bhutan, and there is little Thimphu can do to oppose it,"
@John_Pollock22
writes, shining 🔦 on an underreported story
#Bhutan
. This piece is well worth a few minutes of your time to read!
@9DashLine
US Counselor
@StateDept
@CounselorDOS
Derek Chollet says US "deeply committed to engaging with"
#Myanmar
's National Unity Government, has been doing so & will continue to do so as US works w/ allies & partners to mount unified response to Myanmar crisis:
@cwarzel
This is the same sort of vacuous claim supporters made early in the Trump administration that people should "take him seriously, not literally." Words put in motion actions, many of them incredibly real & dangerous to democratic stability.
This interview w/
@rshorsey
is probably the best account of the Myanmar protests & CDM I've read, and it's refreshing to see a somewhat optimistic take on
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
@CrisisGroup
. It gets at a few big questions underlying the protests. 1/x
UN Secretary General Guterres says "We cannot live in a world where military coups become a norm." Yet we already do. I can't help reading these words & think them completely hollow. The international community is failing
#Myanmar
. It needs to do more.
One thing I've been emphasizing to reporters in the last week is that
#Myanmar
is not on the verge of civil war. It has been locked in many cross-cutting civil wars for decades dating back to independence in 1948. What's new & alarming is that they could all resume at once.
Great piece. Civil war imminent. Important to understand that the Syria analogy has to do with geopolitics--a region wide war--not ethnic cleavages and territorial holdings within the state (this piece kind of implied the latter)
"...or attempt to erase the outcome of a credible election. The Burmese military should relinquish power they have seized, release the advocates and activists and officials they have detained, lift the restrictions on telecommunications and refrain from violence."
Respectfully, Derek, I must disagree. There’s nothing positive about normalizing a brutal, murderous military regime nearly universally opposed by the
#Myanmar
people. Hun Sen’s visit also unwinds the limited consensus ASEAN forged by disinviting/censuring Min Aung Hlaing in Oct.
Negative way to look at it: Hun Sen confers legitimacy on Min Aung Hlaing.
Positive way to look at it: Hun Sen makes it easier for ASEAN to accept new military leadership of Myanmar who doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, thus preserving the organization.
"Asean also needs to work together with the outside world, especially the West and other advanced countries such as Japan, to enforce economic sanctions against Myanmar's generals and suspend military cooperation with the
#Myanmar
army."
In a new piece
@Diplomat_APAC
@Lucasdeanemyers
& I make the case for why
#Myanmar
matters for US national security & values (after all, it has said the Indo-Pacific is its "priority theater"). We lay out several policy options for how Washington can help:
I'm not convinced the "Myanmar quagmire has entered a new phase...[& could] gradually transform into a mini-proxy war." Nor do I think the US Burma Act equates to foreign interference. But notable that Kavi suggests Thailand is stepping up its diplomacy.
Excited to announce that I will be beginning a PhD in International Relations
@ANUBellSchool
in 2019, where I will continue to enrich my understanding of SE Asia and no doubt benefit from the superb pool of scholars & strategic thinkers on the Indo-Pacific in Canberra & Australia
Just finished reading Amitav Ghosh's The Glass Palace, which had been on my list for yrs. What an incredible book! It spans multiple generations & borders: from the British invasion of Mandalay & King Thebaw's exile to India; to WWII in Malaya; to Burma's 1988 democracy movement.
Just had a moment of panic after writing 1,300 words about
#Myanmar
, realizing the editor may have wanted a broader SE Asia piece. I've been operating on autopilot for past 14 days 100% Myanmar focused. Checked in. Editor said the piece will do nicely. It's time for a negroni. 🤯
If confirmed (let's wait and see), this is not good.
#Myanmar
's Lower House of Parliament was set to convene today, with many believing that the military had backed down from its earlier threats of a coup. There are still many ways this could play out, but this is very troubling.
"As lawmakers from different countries, we are deeply frustrated by the lack of action by governments around the world. The international community can and must do more, before Myanmar is pushed over an edge it cannot come back from."
#Myanmar
Don't get your hopes up: 1) MAH frequently buys for time by floating nice sounding but ultimately empty promises (e.g. ASEAN 5PC in April 2021). 2) Unclear what “negotiations” means. Talks are worthless unless they lead to political & institutional change.
Why is it that Beijing has found a way to include NLD/CRPH representatives from
#Myanmar
in its international conferences but ASEAN has not? It's a workaround: at the party level rather than heads of state or foreign ministers. But significant nonetheless.
Next week I will be giving a final presentation of my PhD research on hedging in SE Asia. For anyone interested, this (online only) event is open to the public so feel free to join
@ANUBellSchool
on Wed. March 6 at 1 PM AEST (March 5 at 9 PM EST). Details below:
"Any serious attempt to put Myanmar back on a credible path toward democratic transition must begin with coming to terms with the fact that the consensus is utterly irrelevant to the current situation."
#Myanmar
@Diplomat_APAC
"The country’s future course can only be settled by its own people. Yet foreign governments need to formulate a more co-ordinated and effective response." Good editorial
@FT
on the international response to the crisis in
#Myanmar
:
Arakan Army: "Happy anniversary to you and your wife!"
NUG President: "Thanks! Hope you'll join us for the downfall of the military dictators!"
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
The people of Burma are making their voices heard and demanding their democracy back. The military has tried to silence those calls with social media and internet blackouts, but we still hear the people of Burma loud and clear, and we stand in solidarity with them.
"In practical terms, recognition would grant [
#Myanmar
's NUG] much-needed resources, including the ability to borrow money...Such an action could tip the balance of power in favor of the democratic opposition, encouraging other governments to follow suit."
Great analysis of
#MyanmarCoup
@FrontierMM
: "the Tatmadaw may have set itself back further than 2010-era Myanmar. By transgressing the letter and spirit of the constitution, the military is showing that the charter provides no real rule book for politics"
Is this still “gray zone” coercion? At what point is the Philippines forced to escalate? Simply trying to resupply vessels within its lawfully protected EEZ. Repeated Chinese harassment is a flagrant violation of 🇵🇭 sovereignty. Good to see 🇦🇺& 🇺🇸 declare support for Manila.
WATCH: The windshield of 🇵🇭Philippine boat Unaizah May 4 shatters as 🇨🇳China Coast Guard vessels fire water canon at it during its rotation and reprovisioning mission to BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal on Tuesday, March 5. 🎥: Armed Forces of the Philippines.
@gmanews
The decision to lift mandatory retirement age should come as no surprise. As many have already noted, Min Aung Hlaing's personal ambitions & refusal to retire at 65 are at the heart of the ongoing crisis in
#Myanmar
& largely underpinned the military coup of Feb. 1. What a shame.
#May20Coup
: RETIREMENT AGE LIMIT LIFTED
Clinging to power, causing death and destruction, Min Aung Hlaing removes the retirement age for himself as military chief and his deputy.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Myanmar
For
@Diplomat_APAC
,
@Lucasdeanemyers
& I make the case: “expanding support for
#Myanmar
’s pro-democracy movement makes sense both to advance U.S. national security interests and to defend human rights and democracy.”
"Unlike
#Ukraine
’s,
#Myanmar
’s struggle is seen as an internal problem, a fight for greater independence by many ethnic groups, but not a threat for world order."
Agree w/ two of
@Lucasdeanemyers
' recommendations for US
#Myanmar
policy here: 1) consider implementing secondary sanctions on other countries propping up the military junta (even if it causes some discomfort w/ allies & partners); 2) recognize the NUG
Sharing some more thoughts on the latest developments in
#Myanmar
with particular emphasis on the larger context surrounding the military, its motivations & history. Thank you to
@AJEnglish
for the opportunity to contribute!
"I think the US and the international community should have engaged the military more. This is the country’s most important and all-encompassing institution and to isolate and not make them a part of the conversation was a mistake." Interview by
@sstrangio
What's the German word for the feeling you get when a think tank puts out a report that copies a bunch of your recommendations from a different think tank report you wrote on the same subject two years previously but doesn't cite your report?
"As I said earlier this week, we will work with our partners to support restoration of democracy and rule of law and impose consequences on those responsible." END
#Myanmarcoup
This is a common question: Did China play a role in
#Myanmar
's coup? Important to get this right: Myanmar's military is very wary of Beijing's influence, esp. re: ethnic armed groups & major infrastructure projects. Beijing invested heavily in its ties with Aung San Suu Kyi.
Prayuth's decision to skip the ASEAN special summit on
#Myanmar
sends a clear signal of solidarity to Min Aung Hlaing & is "a big blow to any hope of ASEAN unity, which was already pretty thin." Thank you
@hodgeamanda
for the chance to discuss
@australian
How refreshing to see a map of China, printed in 1931, approved by the Department of Education of Three Eastern Provinces, in Harbin, which has no reference to the nine-dash line. Spotted at the ANU Centre on China in the World
cc:
@supbrow
@bill_hayton
Two interviews from high-ranking defector Major Hein Thaw Oo tell us a lot about regime & morale:
-crackdown directed by Bureau of Special Ops in Naypyidaw
-we know Lt. Gen. Than Hlaing in charge of BSO unit (US already sanctioned)
Special Envoy Prak Sokhonn's trip is even more lopsided & poorly executed in light of news
#Myanmar
first lady Su Su Lwin cancelled her meeting with Sokhonn due to health concerns. Majority of his trip was spent in Naypyidaw playing into the junta's spin.
The
#Myanmar
junta continues to use ASEAN visits for its own propaganda purposes rather than working toward genuine implementation of the Five-Point Consensus. It has yielded no ground & insists the process must be “Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led”:
As much as I don't like to exaggerate the depth of factions in Vietnamese politics, it seems worth mentioning that as PM (2016-2021) Nguyen Xuan Phuc oversaw the deepening of US-Vietnam ties and is largely seen as pro-US. If true, it would seem the "pro-China" faction has won out
Lots of rumours that
#Vietnam
’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc is politically phucd. If true, unprecedented in recent decades. General-Secretary Trong breaking all precedents to clear out those his gang regards as insufficiently hard-line
Beijing following its usual MO of "non-interference" in the affairs of other countries, but it's aiding & abetting a military regime killing its own citizens by actively blocking international efforts to put pressure on the junta. Beijing's obstinacy harms the people of
#Myanmar
.
China's UN Ambassador Zhang Jun: "One-sided pressure and calling for sanctions or other coercive measures will only aggravate tension and confrontation and further complicate the situation." And urging restraint will do nothing.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Good perspective on
#Myanmar
by
@JohnReedwrites
. Only caveat I’d add: It’s not that the military “has never been weaker.” But arguably it’s the first time since the 1950s, when the army was nearly overrun by communist insurgencies & Karen separatists.
This could be a watershed moment for
#Myanmar
's revolution. Three large ethnic armed groups belonging to the Three Brotherhood Alliance urge the military to "immediately stop the killing of peaceful protesters" or they will "join hands" with the resistance to oppose the regime.
This is a significant development - the Brotherhood Alliance, three major ethnic armed groups that had not previously spoken out much about the coup (the AA, TNLA, and MNDAA), demanding
#Myanmar
’s military stop the killings otherwise they will join the “spring revolution”.
It's really hard to wrap one's head around Beijing's soft power campaign to portray itself as a provider of global public goods like medical supplies, when it was hoarding those supplies by sourcing them from countries like Australia in late Feb:
With respect, this is the wrong takeaway from
@ISEAS
' survey. I know journalists want a good headline, but important to note majority prefer not to choose sides (only 4% say ASEAN should choose a side). >80% say it should enhance resilience + avoid sides.
A lot has changed since we recorded this
@InsightMyanmar
, but the basic point holds: ASEAN has not done enough to hold the
#Myanmar
military accountable. While leaders of individual states have spoken out, collectively they have been unable to enforce the Five Point Consensus.
In April,
@hmarston4
shared his thoughts about the UN, ASEAN, the ICC, the Five Point Consensus, the PDFs, the NUG, MOGE, and much more. Take a listen to hear his thoughts and insights.
Listen:
Apple:
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Thank you
@becstrating
! I am thrilled to be joining
@latrobeasia
as an adjunct research fellow and can't wait to collaborate more on upcoming events & publications! Great to see
@9DashLine
expanding partnerships with excellent organisations like La Trobe Asia!
We're so happy to have
@hmarston4
joining us as an
@latrobeasia
adjunct research fellow!
This is part of our new partnership with
@9DashLine
focusing on high-quality events and publications. Keep an 👁 out for more to come
It's going to take a lot more to bring down
#Myanmar
's junta, but contacts in Yangon tell me widespread resignations are making it harder for the military to collect information on the ground & retain personnel. Drip drip...
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
I have a NEW report
@newmandala
on
#authoritarianism
&
#illiberalism
in
#SoutheastAsia
+ what these governance trends mean for policymakers working with civil society. In case you don't read the whole thing (but of course you will), here's a THREAD: 1/x
No offense to the author, but I'm tired of seeing
#Myanmar
watchers describe the country as "trembling on the brink of civil war." It has been suffering from multiple civil wars for +7 decades. Otherwise a very good piece:
In the 2010s Indonesia's transition from military rule was frequently held up as one possible path for
#Myanmar
to consider, but the suggestion was never made so directly as Luhut's remarks at Davos:
I have a new article on why states abandon hedging strategies in the latest issue of
@ContemporarySEA
@ISEAS
. I analyze two states,
#Cambodia
&
#Myanmar
, to asses why they have each pursued closer alignment with China: .
Nice to find the newest issue of
@ContemporarySEA
awaiting me in my office this morning. Honored to have a recent article on when states abandon hedging in the April 2023 copy. My paper examines Myanmar & Cambodian foreign policy. Link here
@ISEAS
:
Hearing that the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting is indefinitely postponed after a few ASEAN ministers are reportedly "unable to attend." Seems internal divisions over the chair's invitation to
#Myanmar
military-appointed FM Wunna Maung Lwin have created an impasse. 👀👀
JUST IN: A few sources tell me that the
@ASEAN
foreign ministers retreat - slated for Jan 19 in
#Cambodia
’s Siem Reap - is postponed
The informal foreign ministers meeting could have seen the attendance of
#Myanmar
army appointed FM Wunna Maung Lwin
"The harder China pushes ASEAN countries, the faster it will drive them to greater unity to defend their sovereignty and vital interests." Not necessarily: Lately it's increased divergence, not unity, w/in ASEAN. It may've led the Philippines to appease CH
The real story is not that the
#Myanmar
military junta is transferring political prisoners OUT of any prison, but rather that it is using the age-old regime tactic of moving prisoners around the country to make it more difficult to track & visit them
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
.
@IrrawaddyNews
says some 30 political prisoners transferred out of
#Yangon
’s Insein jail
- Some sent to jails in Magway, Bago, Mandalay
- No official reason given
- Moving political prisoners around to stop family visits not uncommon, says lawyer