"Shabiha Forever"
My
@syrian_archive
colleague
@Kay_Koontz
& I dive into the origins and evolution of pro-govt militias, proposing a general typology & using more than a dozen case studies to trace patronage networks & the role of militias as auxiliaries
At some point I hope all the military analysts who have pushed the myth of the invincible Russian army for years take a long time to reflect on where they went wrong and how their assessments limited foreign support to Ukraine and its ability to prepare.
Erdogan spent seven years being out-boxed by Putin in Syria & finally has the upper hand. His son-in-law was awarded Ukraine's 1st Degree State Order of Merit for the TB2s killing Russians. This isn't Erdogan being pro-Putin, it's him humiliating Putin.
BREAKING — Israel rejected requests from Ukraine and Estonia in recent years to purchase and use Pegasus — the powerful spyware tool — to hack Russian mobile phone numbers, fearing that it would damage its relations with Russia — NYT
This new footage is insane. Turkey methodically wiping out entire armor units, not to mention the huge numbers of killed SAA. Only thing holding the front right now is airpower, otherwise rebels would be walking into Maaret al-Numan.
A new footage by the Turkish military. Local tv says these are from last night in response to the killing of Turkish soldiers in Idlib by the Syrian government
We haven’t seen Syrians go to Ukraine because 1) they are useless there. No such thing as “expert fighters” among Syrian units & they don’t speak the language. 2) logistic nightmare of getting a relevant # out of Syria, staged on the border, integrated into/alongside Ru units....
What's going on? No useful military role for foreign fighters at this point in the war? Logistical constraints in moving them? Concern about resulting vacuum in Syria and ltd. bandwidth to deal with any instability there? Combination of above? Curious to hear
@RALee85
& others.
My big report is finally out: examining the collapse of the
#SAA
&, more interestingly, the attempts at rebuilding. The last half of the report has detailed unit structures for EVERY SAA CORPS as its stands in 2019
Remember when Afrin was Turkey’s Vietnam?
Remember when Russia+SAA outmatched Turkey?
Remember when TSK was too overstretched to do anything in Idlib?
Remember when TAF was too purged for its drones to operate right across the border?
One philly-based analyst remembers.
Never forget the bravery of millions of Syrians who took to the streets to demand freedom and dignity. In every corner of Syria - not just the big cities - like the village of Rayan, in Idlib, with a population of only 1800, demanding the fall of the regime in Oct 2011
Turkey killed ~500 Syrian soldiers in 10 days in 2020 and forced Russia into a ceasefire. The balance of power b/w Russia & Turkey in Syria has completely flipped since then. This summit has very obviously been Erdogan's victory lap showing publicly his power over Putin.
The TB2 saga underscores just how deep the anti-Turkey hate runs in DC. Idlib, Libya, Karabakh, now Ukraine, excuse after excuse by Turkey "experts" and military analysts as they try to dismiss its growing resume.
Looks like the drone targeted (at least close to) the stands where senior officers sit. At least two brigadier generals announced dead so far (both with sons graduating).
Drones hit the official ceremony in Homs Military College, with graduation of new batch of troops in presence of defense minister. Many casualties. Apparently suicide drones used. It looks like a Rebels' attack.
Anonymous ""OSINT"" accounts look at weeks-old pictures of some mud and make vague conclusions about fighting conditions country-wide. Btw this account supports the (Russian-backed) Assad regime.
Not saying Ukraine is guaranteed to win this. But this is nothing like the “100s of missiles+PGMs per hour” “no conscripts” “quicker than Iraq” “Air Force knocked out in 30 minutes” invasion so many promised. What difference would just a bit more western support have made?
Russian officers in Syria celebrate not being deployed to Ukraine by eating a pig graffitied with Zelenksy's name alongside their Syrian proxy forces. Made sure to do it next to an active TOR in case any TB2s were overhead.
TAF/TSK just produced in one night the amount of precision strike footage ANNA collects over a month plus. There is no comparing Turkey’s capacity for precision strikes to Russia’s in Syria.
When I moved to VA during COVID
@MENA_Conflict
opened his farm & family to me & I could - and did - call him anytime I needed help. He was a deeply selfless person & one who always looked for the good in everyone else. He was the glue that brought hundreds of strangers together.
An SAA soldier deployed in northeast
#Syria
is telling me that the initial reports of 22 soldiers killed are accurate, and warns of more severely wounded. TSK hit positions manned by the 17th Division around Kobani after YPG conducted a cross-border attack.
1⃣Birecik/Şanlıurfa hududunda bir kahraman silah arkadaşımızın şehit olduğu terörist saldırısının ardından bölgede belirlenen hedefler derhâl ateş destek vasıtaları ile vurulmuş, ilk belirlemelere göre 13 terörist etkisiz hâle getirilmiştir. Bölgede operasyonlar devam etmektedir.
After 8 months & hundreds of deaths, the
#4th_Division
has largely retreated from
#Kabani
#Latakia
.
My latest for
@reviewintl
examines the battle in detail - the the units deployed, losses, strategy, and importance of the small mountain town.
I don't care if you advocate the U.S. leave NES because reality is inconvenient to your politics, at least have the basic decency to acknowledge what you're really supporting:
The arrest, torture, murder, and exile of 10,000s Arab & Kurdish journalists, activists & civil society.
Four members of the Military Security 'Support' forces were killed today in a likely
#ISIS
attack outside a phosphate mine in rural
#Homs
Comes amid semi-regular deaths of govt forces in
#DeirEzzor
Not only has
#HTS
effectively dismantled ISIS's once widespread network in
#Idlib
, the group has also spent the past years destroying al-Qaeda's affiliates & other independent transnational jihadists w/in its territory. My latest w/
@dkhalifa
&
@jeromedrev
My latest for
@MiddleEastInst
mapping & tracking
#ISIS
' anti-govt insurgency in central
#Syria
since late 2017
- 100s of attacks using IEDs, drones, ATGMs & SVBIEDs
- denial of large swathes of territory to the SAA
- an ever-growing reach of attacks
Take away their air force and the SAA is incapable of even basic attacks. That's it. That's all the Obama admin had to do to save hundreds of thousands of lives.
"Rojava" is a one-party state with only a facade of Democracy whose governing body is in the process of handing control back to the brutal police state in Damascus.
Maybe these details are to "niche" and "geeky" for Jake though.
Now a force that’s never faced air power is losing entire armored companies in a night. If the Turks keep this up a couple more days the front is gone. These units will not stand & fight, they’re only hope is air power knocking out advancing rebels (like the failed Nayrab attack)
Recently drove across the US via the northern Midwest and the amount of visible pro-Ukraine support was astounding. Every tiny town in deep red states like N Dakota & Wyoming had as much or more pro-UA things as Trump flags. A clear winning issue for Dems & moderate republicans.
764 reported pro-govt deaths incl 94 officers
February was the deadliest month for govt forces since I first began tracking reported deaths exactly 3 years ago. More reported deaths than the Badia Offensive, East Ghouta, all other Hama & Idlib offensives.
ISIS just hit an SDF checkpoint with an SVBIED in Deir Ez Zor. It is clear the SDF and Coalition have lost all ability to gather intelligence in Deir Ez Zor after deciding to violently suppress the localized protests last fall.
🔹#ديرالزور
يبدو أن العملية تمت بتوقيع تنظيم الدولة «داعش» إنتحاري يستقل سيارة "سنتافيه" فجرَ نفسه بنقطة تفتيش لــ ميليشيا «قسد» SDF/PKK وقتلَ 6+ عناصر وأصابَ 5 أخرين، أول تفجير إنتحاري بمفخخة ينفذه «داعش» منذ سنوات، الحاجز تحول لأشلاء ..
بأنتظار تبني التنظيم للعملية
What's interesting about the "MR-2 Victor" purchased from Czechia for 🇺🇦 (Essentially ZPU-2 dual 14.5mm HMG mount on a Toyota Land Cruiser with day/night optics) is that they seem to be very stable when firing, more so than usual craft-produced technicals.
"When the war is over we'll have time to go after the rest of the traitors...their bodies will hang from Damascus to Homs."
This is what a security official told a friend of mine years ago. Anyone who thinks "reconcile with Assad" is a solution for
#Idlib
is advocating genocide
#ISIS
kidnapped as many as 60 people in
#Hama
on April 6. Within hours, most had been exchanged for the family members of the insurgents held in regime prisons.
Extremely rare event with big implications for how the insurgency operates.
How many times have we seen this in Syria? Some rebel group commits a massacre so the regime flattens an neighborhood, justifying the scores of dead civilians by whatever rebel commander was also there. Western analysts had no problem condemning Assad then but stay silent now.
According to the IDF, Ibrahim Biari was one of the Hamas commanders responsible for directing members of the terror group's elite Nukhba forces to invade Israel on October 7.
The IDF says the airstrike in Jabaliya was part of "a wide-scale strike" on Hamas operatives and
This is a small local Hama militia holding a pro-Russia rally, (Russia helps fund and arm them), but there have been no contracts or anything signed for deployment. Not sure what a platoon of what is essentially local security would do in Ukraine.
The Russian Defense Ministry’s TV channel just shared this footage of Syrian combatants ready to “volunteer” in Ukraine. (Putin moments ago endorsed such deployments, claiming that the West is openly sending mercenaries.)
Turkey has the power to stop this. America has the power to stop this. Where are all the western journalists who screamed about NE Syria? The only reason 10,000 more Syrians are facing death, imprisonment & displacement is because their lives are viewed as less worthy.
Locals in Maarat al-Numan are begging for a ceasefire to allow about 10,000 civilians still stuck in the city to escape and avoid falling in the regime's hands. The regime repeatedly targets the roads heading north, making escape incredibly dangerous.
Along with targeting civilians, ISIS cells have in recent months been engaged in serious battles with regime forces led by Russian Wagner mercenaries. The latest saw ISIS repel a 1.5 month Wagner-led offensive around the key village of Kawm
40 reported SAA deaths + 3 reported
#Hezbollah
so far in today's
#Turkey
strikes in
#Idlib
:
124th Brig lost a Brigadier, Colonel, Lt Colonel, Major & 1st Lt
Units reporting KIA:
11x Tiger Forces
8x Republican Guard (survivor tells me 10)
3x 5th Corps
1x Syrian Hezbollah
"In recent weeks, Israeli defense sources say, the Saudis have formally requested the Israeli ministry of defense to approve the sale of different UAVs, radar systems, other early warning systems and some air defense systems to its defense forces."
Disgusting article by the former head of MENA
@hrw
calling for the return of Assad regime to Idlib, being retweeted by a senior
@amnesty
analyst.
Anyone who thinks rebel-held Idlib is more dangerous for civilians than under regime control is either an idiot or pro-Assad.
My short piece on the unfolding crisis in
#Deir_EzZor
, the nuances of local grievances & how the SDF’s heavy handed response fanned the flames. An immediate ceasefire is needed to prevent a complete collapse & the risk of empowering ISIS & regime cells.
My latest for
@reviewintl
Mapping
#Syria
's military deployments around Idlib & examining what it would take for a new govt offensive on the rebel enclave
"In the city [Latakia] I witnessed children and women scavenging through the garbage for food,” said Loubna, a state employee.
“Syria is a failed state, worse than Somalia,” said Oubab, who supports the regime.
Brutal reporting by
@Elizrael
@putintintin1
At least 2,331 pro-govt fighters were killed in
#Syria
in 2020
57% of deaths occurred b/w January 1 & March 7
Among the dead were 16 generals & 20 colonels
@SchoenbornTrent
& I assess the state of the war & shifting fronts in our latest:
Russia: can’t dislodge handful of foreigners from a backwater village w/ attack helis/MLRS/tanks & endless supply of “elite” 4th Div men
US: kills Baghdadi in the middle of the most hostile province in Syria using three doggos
It's been rather curious to see the disorganised and dare I say it unbalanced reply from both official MOD and other mouthpieces.
It's almost like Russia still lacks key capabilities that the US can bring to bear and gets quite crotchety when US power is brought to bear
You could always argue the numbers were inaccurate or slightly inflated, but the idea that they were wildly inflated was always absurd. Israel said it dropped 6000 bombs in the first FIVE DAYS. It's been two weeks. Anyone who watched Syria shouldn't be surprised 7k have died.
The health ministry in Gaza just published a 200+ page report with all the names, ID numbers, and ages of 7,028 Palestinians killed in Gaza from Oct 7 until Oct 26, 3pm. I wonder if news outlets will drop the "if verified" caveat now whenever citing Palestinian casualties.
You've just spent a week embedding with an irrelevant Ukrainian fascist militia that convinced you they're SOF, you're back in your British villa, drunk off your ass, and finally decide to stop pretending you aren't just a rich fascist using daddy's money to larp as a journalist
This is what happened when the "elite" units of the Syrian army tried to take a single hill in 2019. 8 months, +300 deaths, +10 armored vehicles lost, no change in frontlines. There is no such thing as elite in Syria.
This is what the IDF has always been, armed men who slap and strip children. And people act surprised that this institution is carrying out a "plausible genocide" in Gaza as if the complete dehumanization of Palestinians hasn't been ongoing for decades.
In 2020
#ISIS
conducted at least 286 attacks killing more than 432 pro-regime fighters & 41 civilians *doubling* the number of attacks & casualties from 2019.
My latest for
@NewlinesInst
reviews 2020 & looks at the insurgency's potential in 2021
183 reported pro-regime deaths since start of
#Turkish
offensive in
#Idlib
(not including claimed deaths of 21 Pakistani foreign fighters)
Feb 28 - 63
Feb 29 - 54
Mar 1 - 24
Mar 2 - 42
During the capture of
#Saraqib
the
#Tiger_Forces
Taha Reg lost it's operations commander
I had doubted Turkish claims due to both lack of martyrdom reports and trusted sources saying Turkish artillery wasn’t that active. At the same time I’ve been told there’s a media blackout on the front for couple weeks now. Clearly SAA losses are larger than reported.
Israeli settler violence in the occupied West Bank is getting worse by the day. The UN says the number of attacks has risen sharply since 7th October. Many Palestinian villagers are now fleeing their homes for good as a result of threats against their land, and their lives…
Let's not even get into the whole "Russian army has so much experience now from Syria" mindset. How anyone thought fighting in uncontested air space while using the SAA as cannon fodder against rebels prepared the Russians for a near-peer war is beyond me.
The Coalition killed+captured three reported "high level" ISIS leaders in SDF-held northeast Syria this month. And today's target was AQ-aligned. Of course, facts don't matter to Snell who's made a career as a for-hire propagandist for authoritarian Arab regimes.
My latest for
@reviewint
a short piece documenting some of the Tiger Forces many war crimes. Part of a new series on TF, part 2 will cover the widespread use of child soldiers.
The entire structure of the
#Tiger_Forces
- mapped entirely through their own Facebook posts. My latest for
@MiddleEastInst
- Core leadership
- Group and sub-group affiliations
- Areas of recruitment
- Estimated sizes
79 *reported* SAA deaths + 9
#Hezbollah
/
#IRGC
deaths in
#Idlib
&
#Aleppo
since yesterday. Reports are still coming out so this will increase ofc. Officers killed so far include:
1 Brigadier
2 Colonels
1 Lt Colonel
3 Majors
Syrian Hezbollah lost 10 men yesterday incl a commander.
#Idlib
Update: 284 pro-govt Syrian + 31
#Hezbollah
/Afghan/Pakistani killed since
#Turkey
offensive began
Feb 28 - 63
Feb 29 - 56
Mar 1 - 48 (incl 21 Afghani/Pakistani foreign fighters)
Mar 2 - 47
Mar 3 - 69
Mar 4 - 32
Below are some names of KIA (all independently confirmed)
Late last week the SAA high command took charge of the
#Tiger_Forces
Much more than a name change this represents MoD Ayoub’s ambitious plan to take control of all loyalist militias
I examine what happened & what the future of the 25th might look like
Some interesting unofficial
#ISIS
videos from the Badia show some of the training camps I wrote about in my August piece for
@NewlinesInst
(h/t
@CalibreObscura
)
Battles which Suheil Hassan & the Tiger Forces were heavily involved in - and lost. They would keep losing battles until Russian jets became the Tigers' private air force later that year. And yet people insist that the Tigers are some elite unit.
#Syria
: 5 years ago today Jaish Fateh overrun town of Jisr Shoghur (SW.
#Idlib
). But the longest battle of 2015 Offensive had yet to start. Indeed SAA withdrew & took shelter in the National Hospital in town's outskirts, turning it into a large fortified position (~40,000m²). 1/5
So to me the only logical deployment of Syrian fighters would be a small token number, which is simply not worth the logistical cost of getting them involved. Further, Damascus has a say in this & so far has shown no willingness to send any of its fighters on a suicide mission.
No one should be surprised Damascus Iran and Russia are trying to exploit the uprising in Deir Ez Zor for their own gains. I & others have written about these attempts for years () yet they’ve never succeeded b/c vast majority of the people oppose Assad.
Just driving a SVBIED on a flatbed into position, offloading, then hitting the frontline in the middle of a Russian offensive. Over & over again & Russians could almost never see and hit them early. And yet so many analysts still talked up "advanced" Russian air power in Syria
SVBIED logistics — Forward deployment of an HTS up-armoured BMP-1 SVBIED off a heavy equipment loader South of Syrian loyalist positions at Abu Duhur AB in E. Idlib countryside on January 12, 2018
Aris Roussinos already tired of pretending he doesn’t love Russia. Send this to whatever Ukrainian fighters he embeds with next time and see how they feel about catering to a pro-Russian fascist.
FvD organiseert een bijeenkomst over het zogenaamde echte verhaal achter de oorlog in Oekraïne. Sprekers zijn allemaal hele zware propagandisten maar ook de Russische ambassadeur. Compleet krankzinnig dit, alsof je Hitler in 1942 laat praten hoe goed zijn oorlog wel niet is
Thousands of Damascus natives have been killed by the quake, but not in Damascus which was barely damaged. They died in northwest Syria after Assad murdered their families and destroyed their homes and forced them to flee. Once again the UN abandons them for Assad.
On my way to
#Syria
, where
@WHO
is supporting essential health care in the areas affected by the recent earthquake, building on our long-standing work across the country.
@michaeldweiss
@amnesty
@DRovera
Same person who consistently downplayed Russian and Syrian war crimes in Aleppo and tried to equivocate the destruction of Raqqa to the intentional targeting of civilians across northwest Syria.
1/ A detailed look at the central Syria
#ISIS
insurgency combining my extensive database of attacks with interviews with Mazloum Abdi,
@AlexMello02
& others.
Key take-away: Badia is *the* center from which any future ISIS surge will come from.
1500 Tigers mobilized in Dec for this offensive. They had 160 CONFIRMED deaths (explicitly listed as Tigers). That’s minimum 30% of mobilized force killed or wounded.
SAA took their place over past 2 weeks, supported by shit militias (SSNP, Palestinians etc)
14) Aug 2022 pic of 25th Division commander Suheil Hassan w/ Russian generals Dmitry Glushenkov (right) & (I think) Andrey Kuzmenko. Both were previous commanders of the "Russian Saheliyah Forces" which oversees all Russian-backed units in north Hama area
Glushenkov was replaced in May/June 2021 by Andrey Kuzmenko.
The unit also has a "Political Guidance" Branch, currently headed by a Colonel "Dimitry" (pic 3)
3) who would you deploy? If we listen to DEZ 24 claims it’s tribal fighters from the desert ...obviously unrealistic. So you deploy men from Russian-commanded units in the NW. As Hanna noted pulling any relevant # here would severely weaken these key Syrian units. Not worth it...
@Charles_Lister
@ArminRosen
No surprise that you would smear Nir Rosen, who’s dedicated years to trying end the Syrian proxy war (w/ tangible success on the ground) that you’ve lobbied for in DC. As is the norm with your crowd, calling Rosen a “fixer/agent” of Assad requires ignoring his actual views.
A Colonel Pilot in the
#Syria
|n Air Force was killed tonight in the
#Israel
|i strikes in
#Damascus
International Airport. Locals report he piloted an Ilyushin cargo plane.
He was from a the countryside of Baniyas and had a brother killed in 2012