I just published my most extensive work of 2020 with
@MEI_CTE
:
"Shifting Gears: HTS's Evolving Use of SVBIEDs During the Idlib Offensive of 2019-2020"
A lot of details on technical developments & tactical/strategic reasoning. Check it out:
Sweden just announced it will deliver 5000 anti-armour rocket launchers, 5000 body armour kits, 5000 helmets, and 135,000 field rations to the Ukrainian armed forces
Forget everything you thought you knew about dismantling IEDs. As this Peshmerga EOD guy clearly shows, all you need is a pickaxe and a pair of pliers.
All footage from the Russian airborne helicopter assault into Gostomel airbase on the outskirts of Kyiv during the first days of the invasion. Includes new MANPADS launch and shootdown fotage. Multiple Ka-52 helicopters hit and shot down
Taliban fighters from rural Afghanistan struggling with integrating into the group’s administrative structure in Kabul is fascinating. TB ministry personnel with little to do spending their days scrolling on Twitter & complaining about fixed office hours
"After we arrived in Kabul, we were stunned by its complexity, its expanse, its size. We didn’t know where to go. Everything was strange to us and of course, we were strange to the local people."
#Afghanistan
The battle of Mosul was the most gruelling urban warfare since WW2. During the entire 9 month battle, IS continuously sent waves of up-armoured SVBIEDs (which were pften guided by drone teams), as part of their defence against Iraqi forces, using a total of 482 SVBIEDs overall.
Swedish police may have prevented a 2nd Breivik-style attack in November last year, when a 25-year old right wing extremist (NMR) was arrested. His farm had 50 tons of fertilizer stockpiled, a bomb lab, weapons & much more. Attack was planned for a year
A Ukrainian brigade (3000-5000 soldiers) has received military training in Sweden, including Leo 2, CV-90, and Archer practice ahead of the Ukrainian offensive. The brigade returned to Ukraine earlier this month
[Thread] At 6AM on October 8, a massive explosion collapsed sections of the Kerch road bridge & also damaged the adjacent railway bridge, severely incapacitating Russian logistics to and from Crimea. Here's my take on the attack, and why It was likely a suicide car bomb (SVBIED)
Pro-Ukrainian Chechen foreign fighters near Bakhmut recently ”prepared a gift” for the Russians. It’s an RC-VBIED with a ~700kg explosive charge consisting of 60+ TM-62M anti-tank mines, sections of a DKRP-4 mine-clearing charge, TNT blocks, & det cord - h/t
@CalibreObscura
Mass theft of speed cameras across Sweden connected to war in Ukraine. According to SÄPO, more than 100 speed cameras (Canon DSLR) have been stolen in recent months, some of which have allegedly been sold to Russia(n proxies) & used in improvised drones
This is terrifying. Video released by the Mexican cartel and paramilitary group CJNG show the extent of militarization of their special forces. Scores of armed & kitted out fighters in standardized uniforms line a large convoy of up-armored troop transport vehicles and technicals
An American embedded w/ a Peshmerga unit happily records as an SVBIED races toward them outside Mosul. The driver of the SVBIED loses control after an ATGM detonates right by him, causing him to swerve off the road and detonate. Most joyful SVBIED footage I've seen (Oct. '16)
This is stressful to watch. French forces embedded with YPG are forced to take out an IS up-armoured SVBIED with an FGM-148 Javelin missile after an initial MILAN ATGM shot misses the vehicle. Southeast of Ayn Issa on the road to Raqqah (November 2016)
(THREAD) A couple days ago, HTS released the 2nd episode of its “Choose your weapon” video series, this time focusing on the military use of SVBIEDs. The video was jam-packed with details, so I’ll try to unpack as much as possible here
I take back everything mean I've ever said about all Syrian rebel training videos. I present to you: The Egyptian Armed Forces. H/t
@AllisonLMcManus
for the source video
Boko Haram just released a video claiming it shows a NAF jet shot down by the group. Looking at the video, it appears as if the jet explodes mid-air. However, this is not true. BH took a 2012 video showing a SyAAF helicopter exploding mid-air over Idlib and superimposed it. Weak
Sweden just confirmed that Archer artillery systems will be provided to the Ukrainian Army in the near future. These unique self-propelled howitzers can fire 20x 155mm shells (incl. Excalibur) in 2 1/2 minutes, firing one every 7.5 seconds. (Re)deployment in less than 30 seconds.
Bundeswehr footage from a secret test site in Sweden where a massive VBIED (semi-trailer filled with explosives) was used to measure structural damage to military fortifications. From last year. Full video has english subtitles
Russians carried out a failed (likely RC-)VBIED attack against UA forces near Svatove, Luhansk Oblast. The vehicle, an MT-LB w/ a DKRP-4 mine-clearing charge & 3 OFAB-100-120 as explosive charge, rolled into a UA position w/o driver & was later detonated by UA -
@CalibreObscura
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we've seen many Russian vehicles fitted with makeshift armour of lumber, sheet metal & parts of armoured vehicles (left). Now we've seen the first Russian truck with a proper metal armour kit in Kharkiv (right) -
@RALee85
It appears a VBIED detonated in downtown Nashville this morning, causing extensive damage. Police had already been called when the RV exploded & authorities are treating it as ”intentional”. FBI & EOD at the scene
I didn’t expect the Russian Army to fight its war in Ukraine with up-armored vehicles that have worse improvised armor kits than ISIS. Kamaz/ZSU-23-2 technical
This is heartbreaking. RIP Ethan, one of the kindest/funniest persons I’ve ever met online. From the r/syriancivilwar IRC chat to twitter, and whether he went by this, MENA, or LAKY, he always helped out those in need & around him. I even got to meet him last year. Incredibly sad
As part of Russia's anti-Swedish propaganda campaign, they have labeled Astrid Lindgren - one of Sweden's most beloved children's authors - as a Nazi. This is particularly unhinged, seeing as she explicitly despised Nazism and all forms of nationalism
With the Taliban in control of all of Afghanistan, it should be noted how much better armed/equipped they are compared to '96-'01. Everything in the ANA arsenal (10,000+ Humvees, thousands of armoured vehicles, MRAPs, helicopters & planes, 100k+ small arms) is now in their hands
Uhhh… Guys? Here’s the 4th documented Russian VBIED attack, this time with an ’MT-LB’ filled with explosives. Attack allegedly took place near site of the previous Marinki, Donetsk T-55 VBIED. Madness - h/t
@CalibreObscura
On top serving a very efficient tactical purpose, the use of drones also resulted in some crazy footage. As most IS up-armored SVBIEDs during this time had oil & other accelerants as boosters for their explosive main charges, this caused large fireballs, esp. with larger vehicles
The story of a US-made HMMWV:
1. Supplied by US to the Iraqi Army
2. Captured by IS in combat
3. Up-armored by IS & sent to Syria
4. Captured by Syrian loyalists
5. Sent to Russia
6. Displayed for Putin at the Russian MOD’s Syrian intervention conference
Russian forces released yet another video of a VBIED attack, this time with ’an IFV loaded with explosives’ detonating near Ukrainian position in the Zaporizhia region. The 3rd documented such case, likely with a dumb ”RC” function (’brick on pedal’) - h/t
@CalibreObscura
Remotely controlled VBIEDs (RC-VBIEDs) are more often used by groups that aren’t as ideologically extreme as AQ/IS, which tracks with the statement by this group that they ”don’t do martyrdom operations”. For more on the topic:
However, this was likely an 'unwitting' SVBIED. The 52-year old driver of the lorry that detonated, Makhir Yusubov, likely had no idea what was going on. CCTV footage shows Russian soldiers inspecting the SVBIED prior to Yusubov crossing, with no one raising any alarms
Some people are putting forth long-range fires as an alternative explanation, but this doesn’t make sense. ATACMS (which Ukraine doesn’t have) have an individual payload of 100kg, just 5-10% of most estimates of the size of the actual detonation. This is not the Antonovsky bridge
Satellite images released in the days since the attack show the extent of damage, with the railway tracks still inoperable and a single flimsy lane on the road bridge. At the outset, there were two competing theories;
- SVBIED on the bridge
- A boat-based VBIED under the bridge
An ISKP parked VBIED killed a high-ranking Taliban security official in Fayzabad, Badakhshan. The RC-operators were likely sitting in the vehicle that filmed the detonation. Quite a bold attack. One of the first if not the first recorded ISKP parked VBIED attack
The Finnish government has informed Sweden that they would prefer applying for NATO membership together — The Finnish PM is set to meet Swedish PM in Stockholm tomorrow. All Swedish parties are discussing NATO together, and consensus is forming
Maybe preemptively announcing on Twitter that you’re going to bomb Assad days/weeks in advance, thus allowing them time to move/hide air assets etc. wasn’t such a great idea..
SYRIA: The Assad regime is moving warplanes, weapons and ammunition to air bases where Russian troops are stationed over fears of a US strike -
@BBCMonitoring
Besides, if it really was a boat that detonated, there would be extensive damage, blast marks, as well as soot on the underside of the collapsed sections of the road bridge. There was none. The lack of water disturbance in the 2nd CCTV video also speaks against a boat being used.
He had weapons, bullet casings, camouflage clothes, a helmet, laser scopes, lab equipment, ammo mags, knifes, & a bullet-proof vest. Also RW lit, 3D printer, explosives instructions & enough precursor to make an extremely powerful VBIED. Major bullet dodged here
Tunnel bombs -- A medieval siege tactic most recently popularised by Syrian rebel groups. By digging tunnels under enemy areas and filling them with explosives, it's possible to destroy positions thought impregnable. Here's a compilation of tunnel bombs used by Syrian rebels.
Absolutely horrifying footage. Onboard video from a Ukrainian Mi-24P helicopter as it was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile near Lugansk on August 20, 2014. Both crew members, Major Oleg Biryukov & Captain Anton Rodiono, were killed. Four seconds from impact to crash.
NRM — The Nordic Resistance Movement, is a pan-Nordic neo-nazi group that seeks to abolish democracy through paramilitary/terrorist tactics. This is the most significant and extensive planning of an attack by the group that’s been discovered to date
For me, this will always be the best example of the ineptitude and criminal behaviour of Syrian loyalist forces. On Dec 24th, 2019, a HTS up-armoured SVBIED was able to reach the center of Jarjanez & detonate, because loyalists were busy loading their trucks with stolen fridges
The real alarm bells are represented by the fact that the truck was crossing the Kerch bridge from Russia to Crimea. Does the SBU have intricate SVBIED manufacturing facilities inside Russia proper? Probably not. The likely answer is quite ingenious
Nord Stream 1 & 2 were intentionally sabotaged. 30+ seismological measuring stations in S. Sweden recorded two underwater detonations in the area of the gas leaks on Monday (2AM & 7PM), one of which was registered as a 2.3 *quake* on the richter scale
The US-supplied HIMARS systems have been instrumental game changers in Ukraine’s continued defence against the Russian invasion. The new Swedish gov. should keep its election promise of increasing support to Ukraine by donating Archer artillery systems
@SwedishPM
@moderaterna
It's probably time to encourage more outright, unrestrained contempt for this international band of sicko propagandists, weapons dealers, brainless politicians, and media morons barreling us closer and closer into a cataclysmic WWIII scenario. These people are all total psychos
Hence, an 'unwitting' SVBIED. The lorry detonated just after the start of an ascending incline on the road bridge, igniting train cars on the above railway bridge as well. Either of these (incline/train) could have been used as target reference if the detonation was RC-operated
Although a likely Ukrainian USV fitted with explosives (remote-controlled suicide boat) was discovered by Russian forces on the shores of the black sea near Sevastopol late last month, it was likely intended for use against ships. It's too small for Kerch
HTS tank fires a round against retreating IS fighters while advancing across the desert plains of Eastern Hama countryside two years ago. The speed of the projectile kicks up dust as it flies close to the ground.
FBI believes person of interest, 63 y.o 'Anthony Q. Warren' died in the blast, making it the first suicide car bombing on U.S. soil since 1927. He was allegedly motivated by 5G conspiracy theories to attack AT&T. Some more aftermath shots of the scene of the blast:
The Mexican National Guard found an up-armoured troop transport vehicle (presumably belonging to CJNG) inside a truck in Jalisco. Very nice armour kit, and a fancy shell vehicle as well - h/t
@just_some_d00d
A second CCTV perspective was used as 'evidence' of a boat being driven under the road bridge just as the detonation happened. The waves in the bottom right corner of the footage were identified as proof of a boat's wake, despite no boat being seen.
This leaves just one explanation: A powerful SVBIED detonating on the bridge. There are many signs pointing to this. Large soot marks on top of the road bridge + lateral blast marks & bent railings/lampposts all indicate something detonated on the bridge
Firstly, the guard rails on the bridge appear to have experienced significant lateral force. On the southern side of the road bridge they have been completely ripped off, with the pillars, and CCTV indicating the direction they went.
The explosives were likely mixed and concealed in Ukraine, before being transported/smuggled into Krasnodar, Russia on lorries via the Caucasus. The driver reportedly got an online order to transport AN from Russia to Crimea -->
How do you transport large quantities of explosives without raising too much suspicion? Ammonium nitrate (fertilizer). Although the leading theory is that the explosives are AN-based, they were likely combined with an accelerant from the start
3/ He also points out that it wasn't just a big fireball, but was followed by "flaming torches in the air ... This suggests the use of combustible metals such as aluminium, magnesium or thermite to amplify the explosion."
VBIEDs are used by non-state actors seeking to level uneven mil. capabilities against state actors. It’s used in lieu of an air force. State actors taking the reverse path (e.g the Japanese kamikazes) are in deep, deep trouble
Uhhh… Guys? Here’s the 4th documented Russian VBIED attack, this time with an ’MT-LB’ filled with explosives. Attack allegedly took place near site of the previous Marinki, Donetsk T-55 VBIED. Madness - h/t
@CalibreObscura
Furthermore, this picture seems to show a very noticeable depression in the section of the road bridge directly adjacent to where the SVBIED detonated, as if a powerful force (e.g. an SVBIED) pressed down from on top.
Assuming that Ukraine had operatives in place, a front company in the Krasnodar area could've contracted the now deceased driver for a shipment to Crimea, loaded the goods on the truck, and also connected a remote detonation mechanism to the already boosted ammonium nitrate
Estimates put the weight of the explosives used in the attack at around 1000-2000kg (2,200-4,400lb), which is far too heavy for the seized 'suicide' boat.
2/ Tyry estimates that the explosives used "may have weighed between one and two thousand kilograms" (2,200-4,400 lb) but was "not a conventional mixture of fuel oil and ammonium nitrate, but something of much higher quality".
Now that we've established something detonated on the bridge, let me explain why and how an SVBIED was used in order to neutralize the bridge. First, this was likely not a traditional SVBIED where an ideologically convinced suicide bomber sacrificed his life for the cause
This is crazy. Helmet camera footage from a Katibat al-Ghuraba al-Turkistan fighter exchanging fire at very close range with isolated loyalist fighter(s) holed up in a small house in N. Hama countryside. From the beginning of the most recent Idlib offensive (June '19).
I initially didn't want to rule out the latter theory, mainly because of how insane the bridge SVBIED theory sounded. However, there are multiple reasons why a boat-based VBIED could not have been used:
Though still early, many have already decided the Kerch bridge was taken out by an SVBIED based on a large truck coming from the Russian side. The alternative — a boat with explosives, corresponds with many of the blast/damage patterns & would theoretically be easier to carry out
SVBIED attacks don't always require a willing driver. The IRA popularised so-called "proxy bombs" where people were coerced under threat to drive SVBIEDs toward hostile targets, where they were detonated remotely upon arrival
This is what running the errands of a fascist regime looks like; ”Is the Bucha massacre a staged Ukrainian false flag? — No, but actually yes”. Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia bombed, besieged, tortured, and executed Ukrainian civilians. It’s not a conspiracy, it’s the Russian MO.
@CathyYoung63
No, I'm not suggesting that. I don't have any independent proof of anything, and neither do you -- aside from what the Ukraine government officials are pumping out for propaganda purposes. In service of their longstanding goal of cajoling the US to launch WWIII.
I swear, this website didn’t use to be this goddamn stupid. Of course IS hates Hamas, they’re a nationalist project & thus heretics acc. to IS’ ideology. Anything that doesn’t neatly fit into these peoples’ fantasies is manifested into baseless antisemitic conspiracy theories.