Whitney Baker @TotemMacro Twitter profile

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

3 years

Promising a sporadic flow of sexy charts, saucy macro, and jokes on the right side of what's allowed!

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Last Seen Profiles

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 month

In case you're curious why Asian QT is imploding global markets and yet dollar is down, despite VIX absolutely surging. This, from us, published early July.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Sorry for the fine print but here’s all you need to know on US yields…👇

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

@3YearLetterman Living well, having proper standards for ham, wine and other consumables, luxury hardware for interiors, speaking at a reasonable volume, having courtesy for people around you, clearing bins after use at airport security, knowing things about other countries…could go on for days

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

5 months

@realgirl_fieri If you aren’t prepared to cover the costs and you don’t take out insurance you don’t deserve your pet.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

This has aged well.

Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Sorry for the fine print but here’s all you need to know on US yields…👇

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

3 years

@RALee85 The Russians don’t want to be there and won’t engage…while the Ukrainians are fighting existentially. That’s worth as much as (some of) the nominal Russian military superiority.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 months

@arghavan_salles That’s obviously not the point they were making. They were clearly implying both are old, not that no disabled person could do the job. But go on with the “abelist” “racist” “XXXist” labels backed by a bad faith argument.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 month

It was also just, completely distasteful and not something in any way unifying at all, at a time when that is what’s called for. That’s the issue. It’s not the particulars of the disrespect shown or what you believe, it’s the perpetuation of disrespect and contempt, and forcing

Marion Maréchal

@MarionMarechal

1 month

To all the Christians of the world who are watching the #Paris2024 ceremony and felt insulted by this drag queen parody of the Last Supper, know that it is not France that is speaking but a left-wing minority ready for any provocation. #notinmyname À tous les chrétiens du monde

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

@AndreasSteno That’s bc the storage is full (as it was with oil in Covid), and there’s low demand for gas at the moment bc it’s not cold yet. When the weather cools down, demand surges, inventories draw down, and they run into deficits if they don’t continue getting ongoing piped supply.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

This was a really fun one gents! Thanks! @MacroAlf @AndreasSteno

Alf

@MacroAlf

2 years

A new episode of The Macro Trading Floor is out! After managing money for Soros and Bridgewater, Whitney now runs her own research firm: Totem Macro. She was very eloquent in presenting her secular thesis behind her macro trade: short global tech. Hope you enjoy the episode!

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

@Just_Kate @a16z Oh my god can we just focus on the fraudy cult of personality and corporate misappropriation? The reason he’s bad is bc of his race / gender / sexuality? Do better than this.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

USD & bond bulls need to be watching this - Asian buyers funded most of the US funding need this cycle, and the Japanese (and Taiwanese for that matter) are no longer showing up. This is them belatedly reacting to the holes in their equity from last year's rout... @Brad_Setser

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

2 years

The impact of Japan’s institutional investors on global bond markets is attracting new interest, in large part because the Japanese bid is now fading away. Exante's @EtraAlex and I explore this flow in a new blog post. 1/

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 months

True story. These jobs are mostly transfers of income rather than creation of income.

Geiger Capital

@Geiger_Capital

2 months

Private sector job openings are now at a 3 year low, while Government job openings are approaching record highs… The American economy is headed in the wrong direction. More government being paid by taxes instead of economic growth generating taxes.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Holy shit. He says they raised interest rates like it’s a good thing / somehow reflective of financial strength. The “yield” you get paid is just cash from whoever came in after you…they’re offering more yield to raise more funds to pay the yield they already owe. Yikes.

Zac Prince

@CostSegZac

2 years

This, together with other potential consideration, represents a total value of up to $680M. We have not drawn on this credit facility to date and have continued to operate all our products and services normally. In fact, we raised interest rates, effective today.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

The biggest lie in economics is that an aging population is deflationary. Fundamentally it’s asset deflationary, and consumption inflationary.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Hi! I’m Argentina. Here’s what I do. I borrow a lot of dollars, use them to buy off the population and keep the FX peg artificially high, then I run out of dollars and only then decide to tighten bc the Argie population hates tight policy, then I resort to the IMF while also

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

@BillAckman @SVB_Financial Ok, that’s kinda nuts. We’re bailing out non-SIBs now because there’s nowhere else to get loans or place deposits in California next to a major urban center? What about the other 5000 US banks.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

7 months

@MarcLevine63 @AndreasKoureas_ As did the Americans (turn away Jewish immigrants). Churchill was not in charge before WW2. And when he was Colonial Secretary he was quite clearly in support of the Balfour Declaration.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

3 months

Aaaaaaaaaand permission to debate whether rates are finally in a position to start squeezing incomes and therefore spending…granted. ⏰

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Where was this humble eloquence on the uncertainties of the human condition back when they were printing 30% of GDP in under a year?

Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos

1 year

One Jackson Hole attendee compared the job facing central banks to hiking a mountain where the trail disappears above the tree line “You know where you want to go. You know where the summit is. But there are no more markers, and you have to feel your way”

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

According to ADP, the leisure and hospitality sector added more jobs last month ALONE than all combined tech layoffs announced so far. Total monthly job growth >2x cumulative tech cuts.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

6 months

Always a pleasure, @MebFaber !

Meb Faber

@MebFaber

6 months

New podcast with fan-favorite @TotemMacro ! We cover: - US bubble - What's driven recent market performance - The challenge facing Jay Powell - Opportunity in EM 📺 YouTube: 🍎 Apple: 🎤 Show Notes:

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Not at all clear how THIS monthly print is being viewed as either benign or in line 👇

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Clearly time for a three-part reminder for those who want to BTFD in US assets, duration, and USD…Part 1:

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

@acrossthespread 1) First long twitter I actually read, and a good read; but 2) why does he need to go there just to issue bonds. If he thinks rates are going up, issue bonds. If not, issue bonds. If he goes there what incremental value is there in talking to BoJ, if issuance is his motivation?

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

48hrs ago @TotemMacro ’s canine chairwoman was diagnosed with advanced lymphoma, presenting with multiple organ failure. She was given a < 5% chance of successful chemo and c.nil chance of pancreas and liver function. But today, a Hail Mary chemo shot has achieved both. 1/2

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

10 months

Stocks are Giffen goods. The more expensive they are, the more most people want to buy. This is a serial source of alpha.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

When does govt debt level start mattering? When you don’t have the money to pay. You don’t have the money when you can’t print it anymore. You can’t print it when you make inflation. Inflation is the “interim” constraint. You fail that one, the currency’s the ultimate constraint.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

7 months

60bps m/m wage growth is the real shocker. That's 7.5% annualised. +365k of job growth is c. 2% job growth...so total HH wage income is growing at like 9.5% ann. Nom. GDP growing c.6.5% right now = more acceleration in either prices or real growth likely...any takers, prices?

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Let’s assume 20% goes bad with 40% recovery. Historically extreme even vs GFC subprime loss rates. Assume zero provisions exist. Tax-effect it. We’re talking a $150bn hit under an extreme scenario. Subprime losses on much lower capital base = $1.8tr. Context.

constantin savin

@savinfamily

1 year

1. US small banks provide 1,9T of ALL commercial real estate loans, 2x more than $0.9T held by big banks. 2. $1.5T of all US commercial real estate debt will be mature in the next 3 yrs, recquiring refinancing at a much bigger rate than the initial one. T = trillion 😎😎

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

11 months

Gonna um go ahead and you know tuck this little guy right up here one more time.

Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

This has aged well.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 month

Ppl generally just want to be agreeable. It’s human nature. So they agree agree agree themselves into the total degradation of society and civil discourse, never ending wars, rationalizations for division. Then they aren’t happy with the outcomes and feel cheated. “But I was so

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

The key sentence is US banks can’t hedge HTM in a “fair value hedge”. They could hedge w/e they want but it would affect NII if on HTM (and people are precious about NII). What they tend to do instead is term match funding of HTM bonds by issuing own debt securities or preferred.

Nikolai Roussanov

@NickRoussanov

1 year

To an economist the natural question is: why didn’t they hedge? Especially as swap spreads have been low or negative. But to an accountant the answer is FASB rule ASC 815-20-25-43(c)(2) interest rate risk may not be hedged in a fair value hedge of held-to-maturity debt

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Translation: USD swaps are huge and available and generally unused but we want you to know we stand ready to overreact. Definitely don’t interpret us flailing around like it’s the GFC to mean things are worse than you thought or the basis shows. Ps we react to you + stock prices

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

8 months

@Mayhem4Markets @BillAckman No. The family is involved in the grift he’s alleging, that grift being allegedly conducted by the head of a tax-exempt institution of public learning. One was fully within their rights to go after Imelda Marcos (of course).

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

8 months

Cheers to 2023, Uncle Sam!

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

@MatthewGunnin @BillAckman @SVB_Financial Got news for you - SVB doesn’t hold the majority of capital of all start ups. Levered illiquid exposures to loss making tech does great in a bubble…let’s give them all the upside and the second it goes wrong bail them out? A completely macro irrelevant niche-ass bank? Come on.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 month

For a less verbose than usual piece of media from us, here's a link about the end of momomomomomo from a spot I did on Bloomberg on......July 11th! Thanks to @RomaineBostick for having me on! @CliffordAsness @JTLonsdale @pmarca @MebFaber @PauloMacro

Whitney Baker on Emerging Market Outlook

Whitney Baker, Totem Macro, Founder & CIO speaks with Romaine Bostick and Scarlet Fu about the emerging market outlook. (Source: Bloomberg)

www.bloomberg.com

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 months

Would like to clear up the illiterate notion of “cash on the sidelines” waiting to come into stocks. Ppl cite the money funds AUM. Elevated deposits and money funds (together cash) exist bc of Fed balance sheet expansion. The Fed and only the Fed controls their total size, with

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 months

@lessin The idea that Europe has worse stuff 😂😂😂

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Just gonna say it. Lamest banking crisis ever.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Here’s one way to think about the US economy is that it’s operating with early cycle dynamics (a successful handoff from fiscal and monetary stimulus to a self-reinforcing income driven expansion, without much debt reliance), but also with later cycle levels than we’ve ever seen.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

9 months

Not only are there some people who believe this, the market is *priced* for exactly this outcome.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Gonna do a little thread here (will not use the emoji to suppress gag reflex) about US money printing and deposits...a couple misconceptions are bugging me.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

8 months

@simonsarris Good joke but not actually true. Europe all two dots now except UK which is no longer in the EU.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

10 months

@SoVeryBritish That taking longer than a day to reply to an email isn’t a grievous bodily assault

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

What’s so complicated? High, and crucially, stable inflation is the best possible outcome for US bubble unwind and debt workthrough (eg fix balance sheet imbalances through the denominator not the numerator). Best. Possible. Maybe not in real terms, but definitely nominally.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

@Just_Kate @a16z No, agreed. You didn’t. But you communicated that he shouldn’t have been funded for those reasons…and the toxicity. Vilify people for their actions if that’s your inclination - but it’s anti-democratic and intellectually lazy to do so based on folks’ identity or beliefs, imo.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

“If we were dumb before, why can’t we keep being dumb?” A) you couldn’t afford Covid stimulus (= printing & inflation); B) Shutdowns were govt imposed, students freely took on debt; C) Resources are not unlimited, and you’re taking away from others who save and pay their debts.

Bernie Sanders

@SenSanders

2 years

The average amount of debt forgiveness to businesses receiving PPP loans: $95,700. If we could afford to cancel hundreds of billions in PPP loans to business owners in their time of need, please do not tell me we can't afford to cancel all student debt for 45 million Americans.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

See the problem is these were GDP additive when built, but aren’t GDP negative when destroyed. This is why useless shit gets built (funded with useless but unrecognized-as-such loans). And it’s not just China subsidizing counterproductive loans - 👋 Fannie! 👋 Sallie!

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

5 months

The bonds will not protect you.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

11 months

Two cents on the ills that plague us: - learned helplessness - victim mentality - self-justification for one’s own shitty behaviour. That covers 90% of it imho.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Ending communism.

Erik Bernhardsson

@bernhardsson

1 year

Estonia tenbagging its economy in 25 years is pretty remarkable. What’s the secret?

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

4 months

The biggest mistake anyone can make in markets (and life) is caring too much about what other people think (and do). The error is compounded if they care too much about what other people think they should think (and do).

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Anyone else notice that the total increase in the Fed’s BS was roughly the size of SIVB and SBNY combined, and entirely came from SF and NY Feds, roughly in proportion to the size of each of them? C’mon man 😅😅😅

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Good night yields.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Guys, this is a mean-spirited, petty, heavily projection-driven place. I’ve been mistaking it as a venue for earnest discussions. But actually it’s a microcosm of the worst aspects of American tribalism and insult-hurling. The negatives outweigh the positives, so I’m out.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

On the contrary, US nominal growth will accelerate from here, the dollar will continue its decline, and yields will continue to levitate or rise precisely bc the Fed hasn’t been tight enough. Oh and btw, also because virtually all debt in America is fixed rate, at term…except

Hugh Hendry Eclectica

@hendry_hugh

1 year

Today, the market finally understood rates higher for longer. Too many Fed heads caught in the headlights of the 1970s. No one wants to be Arthur Burns. And yet context is everything. Arthur would have been a legend today. The guy had the misfortune of growing up in the wrong

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

5 months

Because this sort of thing known to work so well across the emerging world…embarrassing.

FinancialJuice

@financialjuice

5 months

🔴 UNDER NEW REGULATIONS TO BE ANNOUNCED MONDAY, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WILL CAP YEARLY RENT INCREASES AT 10% - WASHINGTON POST.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

We need one-point-five average recessions to stand a chance at choking this inflation off...we're not going to get it.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Nope. For BRICs trade. Just you know, the two strongest currencies in the world this year…oh and a bunch of the USA’s creditors who are deciding to fund themselves rather than chronic US deficits, bc they’re tired of US paper collapsing in value in a historically inflated FX. 🤦🏻‍♀️

Santiago Capital

@SantiagoAuFund

2 years

Remember 15 yrs ago when investment banks would take indiviual bonds that were junk rated, put them together in a "tranche" & miraculously call it "AAA" rated bc of diversification? Thats the proposed BRICs currency basket that is supposedly going to take over global trade...

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

5 months

Thanks for having me @JTLonsdale !

Joe Lonsdale

@JTLonsdale

5 months

The investors I admire most, like Stan Druckenmiller & PTJ, are the top macro minds. It's highly cerebral — understanding how credit flows, history, economics & politics drive markets. This week, I talk w/ another great macro mind: Whitney Baker @TotemMacro AO Episode 82 🧵

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Why do people still speak about nominal dollar amounts?

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

1 year

The U.S. Now Has: 1. Record $16.5 trillion in household debt 2. Record $11.9 trillion in mortgages 3. Record $1.6 trillion in auto loans 4. Record $986 billion in credit card debt Total mortgage debt is now more than double the 2006 peak. Meanwhile, 36% of Americans have

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Ahahaha she nailed it

Tracy Alloway

@tracyalloway

1 year

Weird that the first banks to fail all happened to be three lenders with rapid deposit growth fueled by tech and/or crypto, though 🤷‍♀️

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

23 days

It’s not about competence. It’s about the elites being elites *literally because* they are driven by incentives towards power. And therefore not governing in the interest of their subjects.

Stefan Schubert

@StefanFSchubert

23 days

This claim flatters most listeners, which probably partially explains its popularity. But it's not true. Elites are much more competent than randomly selected people.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

@MacroAlf My two cents: there’s been minimal withdrawal of liquidity, (private and fiscal) credit is accelerating everywhere, and much of the (fiscal) credit previously pumped in hasn’t yet been spent…balance sheets are clean after a cycle of degearing, and real rates are -5%.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

22 days

@BallouxFrancois @BudrykZack I find it implausible that one could even strain to believe your opener unless completely uninformed about the man, no matter how much one personally hates Elon Musk.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

5 months

It will be extremely important to watch if a depreciating dollar joins these two

The Long View

@HayekAndKeynes

5 months

The fact that bonds are selling off while gold just moved 15% higher is telling you absolutely everything you need to know about macro right now

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

The question is whether credit re-accelerates as is typical of a successful handoff to mid-cycle (as with 2H14), or whether it slows as is typical of a late-cycle slowdown into recession. That’s entirely a function of the size of the tightening vs. the existing economic momentum.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

8 months

Reading “The Myth of Normal” and it argues against capitalism (Totem add: problem is not capitalism but corrupt American crony capitalism)…but in so doing makes a nice point: that addicting us to shit (Totem add: with unfettered lobbying so it remains legal) - fats, oils, sugar,

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

8 months

No this is wrong. Team transitory thought rate hikes would come in as priced when rates were zero in early 2021. They thought it was supply not demand and hikes weren’t helpful. The logic matters. Bedsides, the reason it’s down is not from weaker US demand. It’s RoW goods demand

Lawrence H. Summers

@LHSummers

8 months

We basically got an outcome that was closer to the team transitory prediction. Inflation came down with policy. That is what their opponents were insisting on interest rates far beyond what they were recommending, far beyond what the Fed was predicting, as of almost any date in

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 months

@TheStalwart You must go in whatever direction allows you to keep walking at all costs

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

9 months

1. Maersk not shipping thru Red Sea means c. 5-6% of global container cargo must go 6k extra miles per trip (up to 30% or so if all lines follow, but doubtful the Chinese will) 2. Is interesting in context of geopolitics that US military presence is no longer sufficient cover.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

9 months

It's a telling day when one of the world's largest container companies effectively says that the Red Sea isn't safe for commercial shipping -- despite the presence of TWO American aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean / Persian Gulf region | #OOTT #Yemen #Iran #Israel

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Here’s a little back-and-forth about what is and isn’t causing the dollar to rise vs. a narrow set of DM peers:

Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

@SantiagoAuFund Ok cool we’re getting somewhere. True, only the Fed can create USD base money. But all the main foreign CBs have swap access, a lot parked in the RRP, and most also have a boatload of USTs to monetize, forcing the Fed to provide the cash as demanded via US market makers.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

HOLD!

Wall Street Memes

@wallstmemes

2 years

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

@dumbbitchcap In NYC you are free to be who you are. But then you realise you are someone who requires fine European things and some degree of civility. This is why the NYC - London barbell works so well.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

11 months

That’s right folks - this yield blowoff is happening *despite* the govt pumping out bills (in lieu of bonds) like confetti. They’re doing so to issue less duration ofc, and to suck MMMFs into bills/out of RRP, thus offsetting the monetary drag of QT. It’s a sweet ride and it’s

Paulo Macro

@PauloMacro

11 months

Does make you wonder when RRP balance gets zeroed in a few months, how nasty is the liquidity suck from bank reserves gonna get? Because someone has to buy the bonds. Yields and premium are gonna scream higher.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 months

Your whole circuitry as an animal is naturally designed to stop you from taking risks in life.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Gotta love socialism.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

10 months

Y’all keep trading bond markets on Fed speak like it’s 2009 when the reality is the market isn’t clearable at this supply. C’mon man!

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

5 months

Forecast: In the future when we have a new lexicon they won’t understand why the same admin passed both the “Inflation Reduction Act” and the “Shrinkflation Prevention Act”.

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

5 months

BREAKING: Two Democrats have introduced the Shrinkflation Prevention Act to the House of Representatives. The legislation would prohibit corporations from deceptively decreasing the size of a product without lowering the price accordingly, per MorePerfectUnion.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

NVDA market cap nearing $1tr. Entire global annual semiconductor TAM c.$600bn. Feels a lot like EV / Tesla narrative.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

DUDES, NO US BANK WILL HAVE TO RECOGNISE ANY HTM LOSSES NOW DUE TO BTFD…woops…BTFP FACILITY…move on!

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

11 months

More selling than buying Olivier, not quite rocket science. Biggest seller, Govt. Second biggest, Fed. These are not unknowable, ephemeral assets that price off the flick of some magical bunny’s whiskers.

Olivier Blanchard

@ojblanchard1

11 months

fascinating graph. and, while there are plenty of hypotheses, nobody is quite sure as to why.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

3 months

@duns_sc0tus Don’t you think the fact that it uniquely contains efficient densities of the precursors to every neurochemical and essential amino acid primates absolutely require is…a reasonable argument?

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Late cycle fiscal stimulus in the late '60s, then insufficient real rate tightening alongside continuous fiscal expansion, exacerbated by sequential energy shocks (the first of which in retaliation for Israeli support and a devaluing dollar post Nixon de-peg)

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

@choffstein

2 years

someone give me a narrative for what caused the 3 humps of increasing inflation impulse in the 70s. policy response? bullwhip effects? a little of everything?

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

FX reserve sales are here, mainly Asia.These CBs bought US bonds before the Fed took over. Now both selling into a giant liquidity hole.This is the “dollar strength” boomerang.USD may be strong vs a few energy-shocked FX, but US assets have sucked vs. all & this is one reason why

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

A very telling chart about how misunderstood this cycle is …

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

1 year

How many times does a report have to come in better than expected before you adjust your models?

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

An alternative perspective...

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Another great time with @MebFaber the other day! 👇👇👇

Meb Faber

@MebFaber

2 years

We had so much fun earlier this year we invited @TotemMacro back to chat global macro: 👆 Inflation isn't going away 🌎 Opportunity in EM ⚠️ Why investors need to adapt to a new market regime ❌ Not everything is a Lehman moment

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

First Republic down 60% in pre tells you this was never about deposit flight, and it was never systemic. It was a bank equity erosion issue, bc apparently no one looks at balance sheets anymore… “oh hey what? Banks own bonds?” Most banks have rate hedges. Idiosyncratic not to.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

4 months

@PauloMacro This tv spot is a cry for attention, not a well-reasoned macro view.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

10 months

Watching the “rules-based order” and Pax Americana lose the moral high ground in real time. Not that it wasn’t before, but the yays, nays, *and abstentions* in this UN ceasefire vote display the ultimate hypocrisy in the eyes of the rest of the world. And shame on you 🇨🇦.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 year

Appreciate you guys ❤️!! But w r to the “tolerate abusive bullshit” advice - you guys might also doing that too often day-to-day for your own well-being. I don’t get much actual value from this. I tried it and it was fun for a bit. But without upside, this is just a distraction.

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

28 days

This also discusses the Asian hard landing, lack of Asian financial balance sheet, and unwind of their foreign holdings that are all driving the global chaos right now. 👇

Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

1 month

For a less verbose than usual piece of media from us, here's a link about the end of momomomomomo from a spot I did on Bloomberg on......July 11th! Thanks to @RomaineBostick for having me on! @CliffordAsness @JTLonsdale @pmarca @MebFaber @PauloMacro

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Excellent thread by Andy on thinking about impacts as fiscal deficit blows out again, Fed sells (& other major global CBs at best don’t buy) - leaving us in first period in 50yrs when no CB is buying US debt with huge supply (flow) and oversaturated holders of the stock (level)

Andy Constan

@dampedspring

2 years

How I think about liquidity. 101. Start with the high level. At any one instant assets are owned by savers. Those who need money have what they need and those who have money are invested in what they want to own. Now. Let's say the government wants to spend while they have a

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

8 months

The root cause wasn’t a Chinese savings glut, it was US demand gluttony. China earned savings selling things to the US consumer, who bought on ever-rising debt, with the balance sheet accommodated by an untethered fiat USD and Fed printing over 40yrs. US debts = Chinese assets.

Brad Setser

@Brad_Setser

8 months

Agree. Actually I would say that dealing with China's chronic savings surplus has been a defining global challenge for the last 20 years. What's new? There aren't any more easy outlets for the savings surplus 1/

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

2 years

Re: Larry Summers’ point that Argie & Brazil hitching their currencies is like “two drunks in a ditch hugging each other for warmth”…a) excellent; b) Argie is way drunker than Brazil…more like one drunk and one functional drunk…

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Whitney Baker

@TotemMacro

10 months

Bubble shit be bubbling bc printers be printing… note the “chairs” referred to here are a metaphorical game of musical chairs (describing QE) in which the Fed provided moar seats (financial system balance sheet) for ever more asse(t)s to join the party (all-asset market cap).

Clifford Asness

@CliffordAsness

10 months

@HanauerMatthias Same day again in USA. Value holding in / doing well. Junk / Cathie wood soaring. It’s almost like the prospect of even slightly lower interest rates sends fools into buying crap from messianic hucksters. Almost.

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