Macroeconomic Research Firm focused on investors with portfolios of high-six to high-seven figures. Run by
@nickgiva1
&
@dampedspring
Every Saturday before 3PM
Hey, everyone
@nickgiva
and I
@dampedspring
are 2 Gray Beards. Our goal is to equip end investors to have better conversations with their financial advisors. Give us 20 minutes per week and you will be on your way.
Visit for details.
Nearly 15 months ago we started our real money account, which never trades without due warning and prior discussed reasoning. All broker statements are always provided every week.
Performance is nice and steady, with a maximum drawdown of 1.92%. The account is always unlevered.
@INArteCarloDoss
has a great list of the reasons to be in cash. But the big kahuna which ties them all together is missing. Bond Term Premium is negative. All four need to go higher or the economy will continue to surprise on the upside. We think all four will go higher.
What is About? Its 20 Minutes a week to help you have better conversations with your financial advisor. We manage a real life portfolio and make moves in our long only asset allocation. Here's what members have seen each week. Brief thread.
Stocks:
Our real money $1m account will start in September.
What will the difference be Vs the current account?
A few more macro options plays, some extra diversification into alternative assets and individual equities (when appropriate) and quite possibly some leverage when we feel it
All our orders from Saturday's episode were filled at our limit levels, apart from SHY.
We bought USFR with proceeds, as advised.
We wish you all a lovely Thanksgiving holiday.
Back with you next Saturday or earlier by email, if necessary.
The QRA was exactly as we expected in terms of coupons issuance and we need to make no further asset allocation changes.
We will rethink after FOMC today and send out an email update if necessary.
We continue to deliver on our account mandate: low volatility returns above risk free rate, via infrequent changes in allocation between risk assets, while maintaining broad diversification and not employing any leverage at all.
Our weekly performance numbers are updated every Saturday. We never change our allocations without due warning via email or standing limit orders discussed beforehand.
Subscribers can download our live broker statements anytime.
Unsure what to do with the cash you have sitting on the sidelines? Don't want to take too much risk? In this video, Nick explains a useful way to invest uninvested cash.
Nothing much to say or do on this FOMC statement. Happy as we are. If any changes, can only happen after NFP now. As always, we will send email if needed.
Next week we start the 2GB Squared program, with the rules and objectives stated below. 2GB Squared will be slightly more ambitious than the Original program.
It's a $1m real money program.
See for more information.
We like gold and owned it from inception. But since the price spike we took profits and used the proceeds to buy more TIP which we think offers a higher real yield.
Details on our website. We augment your understanding so you can have better convos with your financial advisor
The SHY order was filled as well, so all orders from the last Episode have been filled.
We now have a decent cash level to invest, which we will discuss in the next Episode, this Saturday.
@nickgiva1
call on $DIA was ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ. Stock replacement on the rest of the equity portfolio has also been the trade to have. Still don't like US nominal bonds. Next episode released Saturday join at
The site has been updated to give you details of the 2GB Squared account, which will start 31st August. Please do not subscribe yet, as there will be nothing posted there for members until that date. Next week we will post a video on how to quickly and
Would the Subscribers find an explainer on the option Greeks useful (delta, gamma, rho, etc...)? If, so please vote and I will do one this weekend, if I have time. Or soon, in any case.
We are looking forward to hosting you on Friday at 4:05pm EST.
We will record the AMA and post it on the website.
If you will be unable to attend but would like to pose any questions, you can just DM us here or even reply to this tweet.
We have had a zero allocation to nominal bonds for a while. Prices have fallen dramatically. It will be interesting what we do about that in tomorrows episode. But it's not clear that bonds offer value yet.
@dampedspring
@nickgiva1
We've been underinvested in bonds and heavy in cash& short term bonds. We did buy our favorite long duration asset. $VWOB which not only hasn't fallen it pays a high yield. We caught the absolute bottom and did buy long duration assets. But at current levels own only VWOB
Gold:
We succeeded in selling the July top and going to minimum equity allocation. Then buying the bottom on Halloween and going heavy long. We then got back to core allocation on the initial rip. Twice we also sold our stocks and bought 1.5x in calls to take our risk down.
Bonds:
We have filled all the orders from Saturday's episode and bought USFR with proceeds.
Email update will follow Wednesday's data release, before market open.