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The Crude Chronicles

@crudechronicle

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🛢Oil Histories | 📈 Macro | 📖 Company Histories | 💣 📈served up via bomb @$$ charts! Not investment advice………..👇🏼sub on my stack!

Library digging up old data
Joined February 2021
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
15 days
The Gist: (1) Big Tech has a capex lesson to learn from Big Oil. It took time but O&G is now a less volatile sector with 7-9% real returns per annum for the next decade. (2) The fundamental drivers for oil and gas equities are still in play: excessive money creation, slowing well
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Huntington Beach, CA many many years ago. #OilHistory
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
I implore anyone with an interest in energy, geopolitics and markets to set aside 2hrs of your time to listen to these heavy hitters discuss the current environment. Thank you @DoombergT @Geo_papic @ttmygh @LukeGromen for taking the time!
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
A long time ago, my mentor told me that whenever you are looking at long-term projections put them into historical context and ask yourself, "does it make sense?" My take on $BP's latest oil demand scenarios out to 2050. I am gonna take the over. #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
9 months
Back in the day when ARAMCO was owned by the Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco they used to produce annual reports for the ARAMCO entity. Unfortunately no financial data was disclosed probably because it was a state and foreign policy secret. Nonetheless they used to disclose
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
These lines will mean revert one day and when they do, #OFS anyone? #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
If you thought oil supply was a problem, have you seen refinery capacity and thus throughput over the last 20 years? $XOM $CVX $BP $TOT/$TTE $RDS (All acquired companies included)
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
FWIW, energy always appears "cheap" in a secular bull. P/E compression is offset by strong earnings. Even the great Standard Oil, a monopoly & for a time unregulated pricing power, @ the doorstep of the biggest growth stage for oil (autos) traded below a market multiple
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@marketplunger1
Brandon Beylo
1 year
The Energy Bull Thesis: • Cheapest P/E Ratio • Highest CF Per Share Still massively underweight amongst institutions/HFs. What’s your favorite way to play this opportunity? H/t @chigrl
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
8 months
@JavierBlas Those dont look like two dudes that are about to start a price war......
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Offshore build cycles, 1961-present. $RIG $VAL (others to be added later) And they say there is an inventory issue in housing.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
I am seeing a lot of charts showing the wide gap between oil price and energy stocks. For educational purposes. Here is the relationship between oil & energy equities for past century plus As you can see, divergence can occur, often for extended periods. 1/
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
I may have outdone myself on this one. This history of big oil production. (All acquired companies included & log scale for effect) Have a great weekend everyone! $CVX $BP $XOM $SHEL $TOT $COP
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
7 months
Can someone please explain this to me? There are a billion media stories and commentators out there talking about how efficiency gains in shales are leading to record production numbers. But if you just simply look at a chart of U.S. tight oil production, the rate of change
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
29 days
This is what an investment mania looks like my friends....
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
For the first time since 1912, the Supermajors' % of global production has fallen below 10% 1912 was the 1st year w/o a Standard Oil. It was the beginning of WW1. It was around this time they would look for oil in far off places which bred nationalization Around the 🌎 & back
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
1) Energy multiples compress during a super-cycle. They DONT expand! 2) They go to single digits but EPS more than offsets. 3) It's when multiples begin to expand that ya gotta start to look for the exit (we are not there yet). $CVX $XOM $BP $SHEL #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
This history on $RIG took me over ~9 months to put together because of all the acquisitions but it was fun to learn a new industry. Here is what I learned. #EFT #offshore
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
I got something for ya! 100 years of capex data 🚨 New post Hit the substack link 👇 $XOM $CVX $BP $SHEL $TTE $COP
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
6 months
$RIG fleet construction history. One of the more time-consuming charts I have ever had the "pleasure" of reconstructing
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
9 months
Call me crazy but maybe the credit cycle matters more for oil than OPEC. #OOTT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
@Josh_Young_1 back of envelope. Capex (IOC and E&Ps) during the last cycle ('00-'14) was ~$2.6T. These co's are responsible for about ~16% of global O&G supply So 2.6T divided by 16% = ~$15T. So $12T is in the ball park. But there's that pesky thing called cost inflation..
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@Josh_Young_1
Josh Young
2 years
OPEC SECRETARY-GENERAL AL GHAIS: THE WORLD NEEDS $12 TRILLION IN INVESTMENTS IN THE OIL SECTOR GLOBALLY. Sounds like a lot.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
9 months
Rando @$$ thought of the day. 6 months ago I took the plunge, quit my 6 figure job, and went all in to do this blog thing full-time with two kids that we have to still put through all the life stuff. It was and still is a risk but the way I saw it the risks were asymmetric. If
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Cycles never peak at 55% utilization $RIG
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@Ultradeep3
Ultradeep
1 year
$RIG 2Q EBITDA beat ($237mm v low $200mm est) on higher rev eff (97.2% v 96.5% guide) partially offset by opex (new contracts). Contract drilling rev up 12% sequentially (annualized runrate $2.9bn). We are just getting started. Don’t be the “why is the stock down in AH?” guy
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
One of these is not like the others.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Capex vs. Crude. Updated with 2022 data #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Rule #1 of the 10 Commodity Commandments. Over the long run, they ALL move in unison. Always have, and always will. Incentive demand for one, they all go up.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
7 months
Loving this Canadian O&G data. It's starting to come together.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
10 months
Here's an interesting take. Going back to the Crusades, no institution has been more bullish for inflation than the one that was given a mandate to fight it....The Fed.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
3 years
The history of $CVX is fascinating with roots dating back to the wildcatters in Texas, California and Oklahoma. Std of CA 1st discovered oil in Bahrein opening the door to Saudi. Saudi potential was so big they brought in Texaco & $XOM. #Oil #Chevron #EFT #OOTT #OilHistory
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
7 months
Please correct me if I am wrong here @Big_Orrin @ManchesterUtd81 . It is extremely difficult to make middle distillates from NGLs correct? The last time I studied the refining process I came away with the observation that NGLs were great for refining into lighter products that go
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Whoa! First time since Oct-2021 my Global Liquidity Indicator has started to "bunch" or "stop getting less bad"
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
The entire bull thesis for big oil and energy all in one chart. #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
I fired up my old O&G historical data in the depths of the Covid lockdowns out of sheer boredom & with the thought that Ap20 was the secular bottom. To now see some of my charts being used by some heavy hitters in the energy investing landscape makes me tear up. Much love
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Getting Ready for 🎅 & some random thoughts on oil🛢️ 🎄New Post. Hit the link👇🏼 Feliz Navidad #EFT #OOTT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
8 months
Excerpt from an upcoming piece "Since the COVID lows, the industry has become so cautious that it is investing as if it were in a $55/bbl price environment NOT the present ~$80/bbl."
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Natty Gas pipelines on the water - one of the best things to happen in our lifetime for energy balances. #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
$HES and that little green monster called Guyana 🇬🇾! #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Oh my gawd!😲Oh my gawd!😮Oh my gawd!😮 I finally found this data!! #EFT #StandardOil $XOM
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
11 months
Question. Who paid Deloitte to do the survey? Let me guess, investors in battery companies that arent getting dividends and buybacks. How close did i get?!
@sabrinavalle
Sabrina Valle
11 months
Major institutional #oil and gas investors would be open to having #dividends and buybacks cut by more than half in favor of more spending on energy transition projects, a Deloitte survey says. Battery storage and electric charging stations rank high #OOTT https:/bun.is/oned9a
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Soooooo, who added to their energy positions on the dip? Tag your ticker!
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Did you know Chevron has drilled over 69,280 wells? And here they are. 🚨New Post. Hit the Link👇🏼 $CVX
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
In a forgotten time there was a sell side bank named Chase Manhattan. They used to publish an estimate of "Free World" Oil & Gas Industry capex. The survey ran from ~1958-1986 Your friendly neighborhood oil historian is on the prowl to bring it back to life. #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
U.S. Refining - highest utilization rate since 1998 1/
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Wagner Group may have a bigger effect than Western Sanctions. Time to redo the text in this chart? #knowyourhistorg
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Who bought Big Oil when it was yielding a 10% dividend back in 2020? Dont lie! $XOM $CVX
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Probably the most out of consensus view that anyone could put out there is that refining/downstream capex could have another up cycle. And you wonder why we had so many issues with refining capacity in 2022. Happy New Year Everyone! $XOM $CVX $BP $SHEL $TTE $PSX $VLO $MPC
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
@DoombergT Current admin is the worst thing for energy security but has been the best thing for energy investors. So there’s that i guess….
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
@DoombergT Saw this today @DoombergT Applicable
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
10 months
Did you know $XOM hasn't been over 5mil boe/d since 1982 when they produced the last couple of barrels out of ARAMCO? Stand alone (no Mobil) last did over 5 mil boe/d in 1980. "As you can see with the addition of Pioneer, by 2027 about 60% of our production will come from our
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
4 months
Everyone is a gold bug these days so I will add my 2 cents. The Oil to Gold (OGR) ratio was made popular because in the 1970s Middle East and OPEC nations were seeing the value of their commodity, which was controlled by the Seven Sister via the Posted Price, deflate vs. other
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
9 months
The peak demand narrative never goes away. Annual report from 1979
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 months
No takes just a pretty chart - Capex vs. Demand
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Great thread by @JamieHeard5 I will just add to it this chart. Nat gas demand just keeps going!
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@JamieHeard5
Jamie Heard
1 year
A generalist investment memo in Energy. My take. 🧵 Opener - which energy source holds the best forward return outlook? Selecting from renewable (wind / solar / hydro), oil, gas, nuclear & coal Which subset has the best S&D set up to provide for outsized investment returns?⬇️
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
10 months
$PXD. What a run! A couple of oil legends in this chart #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
4 months
In the Game of Commodities (GoC) there is no such thing as a reasonable trading range where everyone is happy. Commodities are either in a Boom or Going Bust. In the GoC we live in excesses and deficits.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 months
Offshore Drillers 1956-present, $RIG $VAL $NE $DO
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
The real "energy transition" didn't recently begin. It began in 1979. Updated with @EnergyInstitute 2023 data. #RIPBPHistoricalStats
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
14 days
If the bear market has legs, one good thing O&G equities have going for them is that you can't sell what no one owns.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
This chart amazes me. The public doesn't think of O&G industry as "techy" but DYK at one point 43% of the holes they poked in the ground in the U.S. came up empty?!? That figure is now less than 9%. And for many co's well below that. All due to technological advances!
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 months
I recently had the pleasure of giving a presentation to a wonderful group of individuals within the oil & gas investment and corporate community. Below, you will find a copy of that presentation with some slight alterations (i.e. moving a couple charts around) that makes up my
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
5 months
One may think seasonality is witchcraft but it is a thing, has always been a thing and will always be for energy stocks. Seasonality is like golf, you are only as good as your bad swings. For energy those bad swings tend to occur from April to September. 🏌️‍♂️ P.S. Who is pumped
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
8 months
$OXY on the M&A war path. Best deal is not pictured below. Altura Energy from Shell and BP. It gave them a foothold in the Permian.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
$XOM just reported their 333rd quarterly results since the break up. Another one in the books for yours truly.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
What did you do this weekend? Oh, you know the usual! Watched a coup/mutiny in Russia, drank some beer and counted up some offshore drilling vessels. $RIG #OFS #Offshore
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
@jsmian These rotations from “growth” to “value” or stocks vs commodities are often no bueno for the market.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
5 months
Funny story about these Iraqi and Confederate bonds. About 10 years ago I visited a vendor in London that was selling some old stock certs and bonds. Below are some of the ones i bought- Iraqi debt under Saddam and Confederate coupon debt (those are the actual coupons that you
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
11 months
I concur @WarrenPies ! Unless it’s a secular bust, energy outperforms the market right after a pause and then just for a bit when the Fed starts to cut. But by then you are on borrowed time
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@WarrenPies
Warren Pies
11 months
Late-cycle Energy performance is much different around hard and soft landings. Heading into a recession, the Energy Sector leads the S&P. Around soft landings, Energy lags significantly. Oil's late-cycle performance can cause a recession or facilitate a soft landing.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
The 9%-10% Div yield we saw from big oil in 2020 has happened only 6 times in the last 130 years. $XOM $CVX
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
7 months
Ya know if you wanna believe that $XOM and $CVX are gonna ramp total supply that would be something they (including predecessors) haven't done since well.......the post World War 2 era. Since the 1970s nationalization years, big oil's total production has been nothing but flat.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
8 months
All this talk about $XOM and $CVX ramping capex. Ya gotta remember, they are coming off levels not seen since 1933 & 1986. The industry doesnt survive very long at those sort of replacement rates. And if you are worried about capex and investment, it's not the oil companies
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
7 months
Saudi Capacity insight In the late 1970s ARAMCO had plans to take capacity from 10.5mil bbl/d to 13.5 mil bbl/d (sound familiar). There was even talk of taking capacity up to 16mil bbl/d. Two things were going on at the time 1) The Saudis were negotiating with the ARAMCO
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Hands down my favorite book on the history of the Russian oil and gas industry. It’s a beast of a read but done so well! What’s your favorite? #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
One was a descendant of Standard Oil The other was born out of the Oklahoma oil boom. They formed like Vultron to become an integrated. But now back to a pure play E&P. The production history of a legend, $COP
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
9 months
Update with $PBR latest capex projections
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Risk on sectors of energy can sniff out the bounce in crude. #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
6 months
The @WSJ dropping an awesome chart from @Bob_McNally and Rapidan. For those that may not know, finding spare capacity before 1990 is a bit tough. It's not a simple data download from the agencies.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
$OXY Drilling History. Pretty much every O&G company I have data on - the completion chart look like this. Think it has implications for the future?
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
The post WW2 & 1970s inflation was put to rest with massive supply side response. We will have zero, Z-E-R-O, supply side response coming out of this downturn in the economy If you study your history, inflation comes in waves often with increasing amplitudes. Buckle up #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
$CVX Historical well count. This data was a BEAST to gather. Part that sucks is Texaco prior to '75 is spotty. Ill have to make assumptions for them. Beauty about this data is there is no source for well counts/completions on a global scale but company data provides a lens
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Some oil charts. I often get asked where are we in the cycle? I think a mid-cycle pause (and by cycle I mean secular bull cycle which can encompass many economic cycles). Oil was over-extended due to Fed (See chart comparing this rally vs. all others in history) Thoughts?
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
7 months
Who feels super smart when they have their books on a shelf even though you may not have read half of them? (Wife bot me the shelf to get them off the ground)
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
It truly amazes me that since the late70s/early80s, the industry allocates little to exploration budgets. #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
I’m Freaking Back Baby!!!! Shouts out to my oil brotha from another mother @Rory_Johnston for emancipating me! What i miss #EFT ?!
@Rory_Johnston
Rory Johnston
1 year
🚨 Just learned that @crudechronicle has been locked out of his account. Let's make some noise about that and get him back online.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
We often “figure out the narrative” after move. So if crude really did bottom back in mid-December this will be the chart i use as to why. If not, well then you never saw this chart and I will issue myself 10 lashings.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
It's crazy to say, but could $XOM cost of capital actually be declining?!?! (I'm sure some of you pros have an issue with how I calculate W.A.C.C. - it's based on trailing data - but I had to justify the countless hours I spent studying for the CFA)
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
H-E-S-S, HESS, HESS HESS The little green monster making waves in the deepwater. *updated with 2QYTD $HES data
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
It's amazing how energy is tracking eerily similar to prior Fed hike cycles. Anyone that's been in the O&G game long enough knows Thanksgivings are never fun. @WarrenPies I would love to get your take/thoughts on this.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Guess what does well when the money printers decide to “pause”
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
In all O&G nothing has more operating leverage than offshore rigs Both on the up and downside For 14 years, investors have only seen the latter High risk but high reward if get the cycle right Working on history of $RIG for my paid subs Lotta companies to collect
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 month
To anyone thinking about starting a paid for blog/newsletter. The following has been my experience. #1 - Start out posting for free and build your email list. This matters because #1 this is the audience that you want to nurture and get to know, like and possibly trust
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
"Honey can you feed the dog?" "No I am looking at offshore day rates in 1978." $RIG
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
One of my big projects for 2023 is to do a refining history. Not just U.S. data but data from all the oil companies. FYI, did you know refining was NOT a profitable business in the 1970s cycle
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
On this day, not only did "Colonel" Drake discover oil in the U.S. but did so at the all time inflation adjusted peak of ~$702/bbl. Maybe one day we will get back there. 🙏🙏 #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Capex vs. Crude 1948-present #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 months
Reading up & collecting data for a future post Can you guess the subject? Hint
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
Here is 43 years of Find & Development Costs for the Supermajors 🚨New Post. Hit the link👇 $XOM $CVX $BP $TTE $SHEL $EQNR #EFT
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
From 2009-2017, E&Ps became more "oily" while the Supermajors were getting "gassy" Since 2017 the roles have reversed with the Supers staying "flattish" on the gas cut. But over the long run, they are all getting gassy.
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
When @CorneliaLake says there is no order book this chart agrees with him! Such a great listen! Thanks for doing again!
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@CorneliaLake
Lake Cornelia Research Management
1 year
Great conversation yesterday with @marketplunger1 we talked a lot about $RIG $TDW $TECK $GLEN $BHP $VAL $DO $SDRL $BORR $XLE $OIH $XOP
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
2 years
This may be my favorite chart of all time! #EFT $XOM $CVX $SHEL $COP $BP $TTE
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@crudechronicle
The Crude Chronicles
1 year
Rebuilding the history of $RIG is freaking hard! But somebody gotta do it. Working on it for my subs!
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