Jawad Mian @jsmian Twitter profile

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

My life changed upon realizing this.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

1) What if I told you the S&P 500 will reach new record highs in six months and continue rising for a few more years. Is that something you’d be interested in? 🧵

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

Some thoughts on Silicon Valley's endgame. We have long said the biggest risk to the bull market is an Uber IPO. That is now upon us.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

9 months

One of my favourite passages from C.S. Lewis. He died on this day in 1963.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

1) I have found it useful to study the Nifty Fifty period and the 1973-1974 bear market, in particular, as it appears to have considerable overlap to the so-called FAANG stocks of today. 🧵

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

Thoughts on $TSLA, Elon Musk, and Time magazine from April 2017.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

1 year

This advice from Screwtape never gets old. Worked again this weekend.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

I just finished "Managing Oneself" by Peter Drucker. It is a great short book I wish I had discovered earlier. Here are some lessons that stuck with me:

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1/ From 1997 to 2012, less cash was returned to investors than invested in VC. Given where we are in the cycle, revisit this venture study for a sobering read of what a bear market for the industry may look like. Not unlike hedge funds today I suppose.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1/ One year ago this week, Saudi dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in his country’s consulate in Istanbul. At the time, we wrote about the butterfly effect—how this will eventually lead to the bursting of the Silicon Valley bubble. Read on. 🤔

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

10) I highly recommend reading this transcript of Stan Druckenmiller's speech at the Lost Tree Club in 2015. Now is the time to be inspired.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

One of my favourite passages from C.S. Lewis. He died on this day in 1963.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) I have found it useful to study the 1970s Nifty Fifty era as it appears to have considerable overlap to the so-called FAANG stocks of today.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

Don’t spend your life doped out.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

1) What if I told you the S&P 500 will reach new record highs in six months and continue rising for a few more years. Is that something you’d be interested in? 🧵

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

Notes from our Silicon Valley trip have been published.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

Watch your thoughts, they become your words. Watch your words, they become your actions. Watch your actions, they become your habits. Watch your habits, they become your character. Watch your character, it becomes your destiny. - Lao Tzu

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

1) I just returned from the Bay Area. There is a palpable sense of gloom, a fear that the good times are not only over but never to return. 🧵

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

Picture of a Syrian refugee boy and his father in Reyhanli, Turkey. Taken by Mehmet Aslan, winning “Photo of the Year” at the Siena International Photo Awards 2021.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

24) Let us not forget the consequences of humans’ compulsive greed and hubris. Uber—and many other Silicon Valley unicorns—could be worth multiples of their current value over the long run but not without first facing a reality check from public markets. The time to worry is now.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

“Facebook raised $2.2 billion pre-IPO. Google raised $130m pre-IPO, WeWork has raised $14 billion so far, 7x what Facebook required pre-IPO, 140x what Google needed and they’re not even a technology company. Where has that $14 billion gone?”

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

1) Are we in a golden age of crypto schadenfreude? #Bitcoin 🧵

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1/ As Aramco readies to go public in the world’s biggest-ever IPO at a valuation of $1.7 trillion, it is worth remembering that the world's largest oil producer is arguably Silicon Valley's most successful startup.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

17) Saudi Arabia is the single largest funding source for US startups, funneling at least $15 billion since mid-2016. As @karaswisher said, "If you remove the Saudis from the worldwide network, everything collapses." By comparison, China has invested $11 billion since 2000.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) This year has been difficult for many investors, whether you are a novice or an experienced risk taker. It would be useful to revisit today's money masters and see how they dealt with gut-wrenching loss. It always helps renew my ambition.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) Five years ago, Ken Langone asked Stan Druckenmiller, "What is the biggest mistake you made and what did you learn from it?"

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

Paul Tudor Jones: "The Great Monetary Inflation." Must read.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

My life changed upon realizing this.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

23) The AOL Time Warner merger in 2000 culminated in the tech crash, the Blackstone IPO in 2007 presaged the 2008 meltdown, and the Glencore listing in 2011 marked the peak in the commodity super-cycle. Uber, we believe, will mark the peak in Silicon Valley and tech valuations.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) Patagonia's vest is the most quintessential VC attire. Read on to understand the values behind the brand and the story of Yvon Chouinard. There are lessons in it for all of us.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

1) What’s next for tech, FAANG, and Silicon Valley? Revisit the spectacular shale boom-bust cycle. There are more similarities than you think. Both were profitless technological revolutions funded by cheap capital and carrying enormous benefits to society. Pay attention 🧵

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) This year has been difficult for many investors, whether you are a novice or an experienced risk taker. It would be useful to revisit today's money masters and see how they dealt with gut-wrenching loss. It always helps renew my ambition. THREAD 👇

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

1) Five years ago, Ken Langone asked Stan Druckenmiller, "What is the biggest mistake you made and what did you learn from it?"

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

1) The way we breathe is inextricably linked to the way we live. I’m embarrassed how long it took me to figure this out. Given my sinus I’ve been breathing poorly my whole life. What I’ve learned 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1/ In the wake of the recent acrimony between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it may be hard to imagine they ever had friendly relations. Yet the two countries were once friends and allies.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

13) As @lessin puts it, technology was a “bubble of last resort"... soaring tech valuations are really more a commentary on the plummeting value of capital than the value of tech companies themselves. This is now changing, money is becoming scarcer and cost of capital is rising.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

Do yourself a favour and read this. Then save it somewhere so you can return to it every year.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

21) “The Nifty Fifty were taken out and shot one by one,” wrote a Forbes columnist. From the highs, Coca-Cola fell 69%, Xerox 71%, McDonald’s 72%, Avon 86%, Disney 87% and Polaroid 91%. The Dow’s January 1973 high would not be surpassed for another nine years.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

2) A lot of stock charts look like death right now. But zoom out and you notice something special. A secular bull market is in progress.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1) We observe through history a recurring sequence of political revolution. The ancient Greeks referred to the cycle as Anacyclosis, a political doctrine derived from the works of Polybius (200-118 BC) and Aristotle (384-322 BC).

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1) In 2015, venture capitalist Bill Gurley predicted “dead unicorns" and that all these private valuations are "fake." Now he has reconsidered his view, “You have to adjust to the reality and play the game on the field.” There are no more disbelievers, except @chamath .

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

13) This gives me confidence that the correction has ended with the low in mid-June, and we are quickly returning to the highs. What if the greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors that we’re still in a bear market?

Bull or no bull

What if the greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors that we’re still in a bear market?

stray-reflections.com

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

10) I highly recommend reading this transcript of Stan Druckenmiller's speech at the Lost Tree Club in 2015. Now is the time to be inspired.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

12) Because of QE, capital was abundant, but had nowhere to go and be productive because the world was still in a downturn. The scarce asset was “growth” and so have created a bubble in the riskiest long-duration asset—venture backed companies.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

The first book I’ve bought in over two years. Thanks @tferriss for the recommendation.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

6 years

Seven Sins

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

“Fasting is the first principle of medicine. There's hidden sweetness in the stomach's emptiness. We are lutes, no more, no less. If the soundbox is stuffed full of anything, no music. Be emptier and cry like reed instruments cry.” - Rumi

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

9) "You asked me what I learned. I didn't learn anything. I already knew that I wasn't supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn't help myself."

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

5) I see a localized downturn in Silicon Valley. Much like the Texas shale bust in 2015/16. San Francisco will see layoffs, falling salaries, worthless stock options, declining housing prices, and despair that lasts up to five years. Rest of America keeps booming.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

22) When the leading company in the hottest sector goes public, it reflects a peak in social mood and usually presents an important inflection point in financial markets. As a rule, insiders sell at the top.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

Best interview I've read on China in some time. No sensationalism. Just pragmatic analysis with lots of great insights. Read it again and again to improve your understanding.

China's Private Equity King Says The Country's Economic Slowdown Has Just Begun

But Weijian Shan sees a silver lining.

fortune.com

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

19) Just as churches once raised the highest towers of the city, wealthy individuals use skyscrapers as egotistical personal and corporate symbols at the peak of every cycle. Salesforce Tower, the new tallest structure in San Francisco, is the church of our time.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1/ I’ve noticed that I increasingly forget certain things. It started with people’s names, then I'd forget plans, early memories with my wife and children, and I began to worry what if my absent-mindedness affects my ability to think and write?

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

15) A century ago, railroad entrepreneurs found a ready market to fund their massive expansion plans based on an extreme overestimation of the market opportunity. This ended badly, of course, and holds more parallels to today’s ride-sharing companies than we might like.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

1/ If you're wondering why Adam Neumann and WeWork were cut so much slack by investors, it is because the corporate leadership pendulum has swung from one extreme to another.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

Uber and Lyft have lost over $11 billion in market cap in just four months. WeWork has lost $35 billion. The endgame has begun.

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

Some thoughts on Silicon Valley's endgame. We have long said the biggest risk to the bull market is an Uber IPO. That is now upon us.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

1) Of all the early warning signs that can help prevent investment disasters, one stands out. COMFORT. 🧵

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@jsmian

5 years

25/ A butterfly flapped its wings in Riyadh that killed a journalist in Istanbul that killed a fundraise in Japan that killed the hopes and dreams of CEOs and VCs in Silicon Valley. The end.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

3) A secular bull market is a period of prolonged above-average returns (15 to 20 years). Valuations expand, risk-taking looks attractive, and neither pullbacks nor recessions disrupt the upward trend. A secular bear market is the opposite.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

7) Discipline is loosening considerably. @bfeld noted, "A number of companies, often times with nothing more than a team and a Powerpoint presentation, have had great success raising capital north of that $10 million level... I view this as a significant negative indicator."

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) In Greek mythology, Cassandra was a princess of the legendary city of Troy, and the most beautiful of King Priam’s daughters. She was seduced by Apollo, who gave her the ability to predict the future.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

My life changed upon realizing this. From

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

For Softbank’s Vision Fund to deliver an average 3x return to investors after ten years, it must create $1 trillion of new value (assuming 30% ownership in its companies). That is equal to the total value of all unicorns in the world today.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

1 year

This advice from Hunter S Thompson was a big influence in my decision to quit my job and work from home ten years ago. “Beware of looking for goals: look for a way of life. Decide how you want to live and then see what you can do to make a living within that way of life.”

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

10) I highly recommend reading this transcript of Stan Druckenmiller's speech at the Lost Tree Club in 2015. Now is the time to be inspired.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

6) Gulf money is notoriously late to the party, purchasing Carlye Group in 2007 at the peak of the credit bubble, and anchor investors in Glencore IPO in 2011 at the peak of the commodity bubble. Now they are "all in" on Uber and opened offices in Silicon Valley to do more.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

My global macro view

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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@jsmian

4 years

1) From the time Trump first announced his run for the White House, most of Silicon Valley has been motioning through the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally, acceptance.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

A year from now, if we see US tech stocks crashing, won’t we look back and say the writing was on the wall? How could we be so blind? China is doing everything America should.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

Lockdowns make ZERO sense. It is the biggest policy mistake of our lifetime.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 years

1) The Middle East is undergoing a major transformation. It is entirely possible to know exactly what will happen in the future. Maktub. It is written.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

6) Bond yields rose the entire time. The 10-year yield went from 2.2 percent to 5.6 percent. The stock market was unaffected by this. In fact, the 1950s was the best decade for stocks ever.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

“All truth passes through three stages,” said Arthur Schopenhauer. “First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” Ridicule of @profgalloway by notable VCs tells me Silicon Valley's bear cycle is just getting started.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

Feel a nasty selloff coming that will “test” everyone’s beliefs. Bulls will question their bullishness. Bears will wonder if this is the big one. Trump will think his chances are over. I will question what I am good for.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

This is ESSENTIAL reading for EVERY investor.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

1 year

Be careful of Mr. Macro

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

2 years

4) Comments like “we are already in a recession” and “there is no end in sight” leave me frazzled. VCs are projecting their own experience (max pain in their portfolios) onto rest of America. Because they are suffering, everyone must be suffering. That is simply not true.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 years

11) Stanford professor Strebulaev examined 135 unicorns and found nearly half would lose unicorn status after taking into account the complicated structure of multiple funding rounds and generous promises to their preferred shareholders.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

The Silicon Valley Age is over. Most startups will blame the coronavirus for their problems even when the root causes began earlier.

Lime’s Valuation May Fall 80% in Emergency Fundraising

Scooter rental startup Lime, one of the hottest startups in tech two years ago, is trying to raise emergency funds at a valuation slashed by 80% from last year, two people familiar with the matter...

www.theinformation.com

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

The trouble is, you think you have time.

The End of Our Time

“Life is long if you know how to use it.”

stray-reflections.com

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

6 years

Never in a million years did I imagine I’d ever meet him.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

1) What makes Warren Buffett the greatest investor of all-time? He is the only infinite-minded investor in the stock market, which is an infinite game.

The Infinite Game

The only true competitor in an infinite game is yourself.

stray-reflections.com

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@jsmian

2 years

12) Whereas it took an average of 9 months to recover its previous highs during secular bull markets, the recovery took an average 48 months during secular bear markets.

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@jsmian

2 years

7) The next secular bull market was 1980 to 2000. The S&P 500 increased by 1,400 percent. This is despite two recessions, the crash of 1987, the Japanese bubble bursting, the Savings and Loan crisis, the first Gulf War, the Asian financial crisis, and the Russian debt crisis.

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Jawad Mian

@jsmian

4 years

You have 100% of the life ahead of you. It is never too late.

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@jsmian

2 years

5) The S&P 500 gained 445 percent despite three recessions, the Korean War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of President Kennedy, and the race riots of the 1960s.

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@jsmian

2 years

4) Since the Second World War there have been three secular bull markets. The first one lasted from 1950 to 1968. It was brought about by the S&P 500 breaking out above the 20 level, which had served as a ceiling since 1937.

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@jsmian

4 years

Best advice you’ll receive on Twitter (originally sent to me by my wife). 😯

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@jsmian

4 years

1/ Ed Viesturs is the only American to have climbed all of the world’s 14 mountains over 8,000 meters, and only the sixth person to do so without the aid of an oxygen tank (which he feels can be burdensome).

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@jsmian

5 years

5) VCs raising ever-larger funds at an increasing pace, despite a lack of viable opportunities. Sequoia raised $8bn, largest ever by US venture firm. “It’s easier to raise money than anytime I’ve been in the business," said David Rubenstein. Does not bode well for future returns.

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@jsmian

5 years

3) China is now home to 168 unicorns, worth a total $628 billion. It now takes just four years, on average, in China for a new company to achieve unicorn status compared to seven years in the US. In fact, nearly half of the Chinese unicorns became so just two years after launch.

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@jsmian

4 years

S&P 500 ≠ Economy Shocking to me how something so simple is still misunderstood by so many.

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@jsmian

4 years

Watch your thoughts, they become your words. Watch your words, they become your actions. Watch your actions, they become your habits. Watch your habits, they become your character. Watch your character, it becomes your destiny. - Lao Tzu

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@jsmian

1 year

I used to define freedom as the ability to do what I want when I want. I connected it with financial freedom. If I make enough money, then I’m in control of my destiny. The idea now seems so foolish. Few individuals ever achieve financial independence. So that can’t be the

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5 years

Notes from our Silicon Valley trip. We met with over 100 founders, angels, VCs, allocators, and hedge funds. In this report, we shared some of the key insights. It is surprising to us why more people are not looking in and connecting the dots.

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@jsmian

2 years

3) Every VC and tech investor has turned into a macro expert. Rather than accept responsibility for their performance, some are deflecting blame to external factors like the Fed or inflation. Others still professed love for their SaaS stocks.

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@jsmian

3 years

1) There are some truths that are so obvious that we never question them. The virtues of value investing is one of them. Time to renovate demonstrably false old truths. 🤓

The Great Rotation: A hundred-year perspective

The rotation from value to growth over the past decade is the start of a secular trend that will persist over many decades.

stray-reflections.com

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5 years

14) Uber's new CEO said, "We suffer from having too much opportunity right now as a company." Uber addresses this ailment by burning money some $20 billion since it’s founding a decade ago and now accessing public markets as private capital is tapped out.

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