Bob McNally @Bob_McNally Twitter profile

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Bob McNally

5 days

I am so happy and honored to have been interviewed by my dear friend @AHHFleischmann , a brilliant, successful, and inspiring CEO and stupendous and widely admired friend. Full disclosure: Alan and I go back to freshman year at AU and are uncles to each other's children. So,

Alan H. H. Fleischmann

@AHHFleischmann

5 days

This week on #LeadershipMattersSXM , I was joined by @Bob_McNally , the Founder and President of @RapidanEnergy and author of Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices. Tune in tomorrow (7/30) on @SIRIUSXM Business Radio at 6pm ET.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

@POTUS There's always a multi-week lag between global crude oil and domestic pump price changes, Mr. President. If these recently lowered crude prices stick, pump prices should follow. Recommend asking @EIA to explain these realities to you & your staff. Gouging is not an issue, sir.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Quite a week - quite a year - for Strategic Petroleum Reserve policy. The good, the bad, and the ugly. Short-ish 🧵 1/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Congratulations to oil veteran Ibrahim AlMuhanna for writing this important book on the history of Saudi and #OPEC policymaking. And thank you for the honor of being asked to write the introduction. @RapidanEnergy @ColumbiaUP #energyprices @JasonBordoff @ColumbiaUEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

After a 7-year long bust phase, crude oil has arrived at the foothills of the next multi-year bull cycle. Pullbacks post winter likely & macro still a risk, but for the first time since 2014 the boom beckons on the horizon. Demand growth the next big “surprise.” Buckle up.

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

3 years

@RapidanEnergy ’s @Bob_McNally spoke with @KFJ_FP about the differences and similarities between this fall’s energy crunch and the bigger squeeze coming later this decade. #EnergyCrisis #oil

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Top question now is why investors and shale companies are reluctant to drill. The main reason is rational of bleak behavioral adaption to the ~15 year absence of a durable, effective swing producer & resulting return of no-kidding shut-in-to-demand-destruction price cycles.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

The ugly: Notwithstanding high bearish recession risks, we're in the foothills of a multi-year boom cycle for oil prices and are starting our journey with our emergency buffer depleted, largely by political misuse of the SPR. No bueno. 10/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Pioneer Natural Resources and Parsley Energy just filed a motion with the Texas Railroad Commission requesting a hearing to start the process toward possible statewide quotas. Hearing is likely. Things about to get more interesting in the Lone Star state. #OOTT #Oil #WTI #OPEC

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Throwing away emergency oil stocks to raise revenue or douse pump prices is a classic example of a short-sighted and expensive policy mistake. Circling back & ending on a positive note, let's build on glimmers of wisdom & cancel those foolish mandatory SPR drawdowns. 12/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Ironically, given their spat, the Biden administration and OPEC+ are acting in their own way but saying the same thing to drillers: we won’t allow crude prices to collapse so please invest.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Back in business and on the ground in Vienna with energy/OPEC rock star @CroftHelima .

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Oil demand growth this decade will rise much faster than consensus currently assumes. When consensus shifts on the demand side, it won’t take long for investors to connect the dots with a constrained supply side. Spare capacity will vanish and crude oil prices will explode.

Arturo Regalado

@arturoregalado

3 years

2/ In favor of the supercycle, there is data that suggests supply might not keep up with demand. For example, depressed Capex spending; even before the pandemic. Bottom line: supply is severely challenged going forward. A point stressed by many analysts, like @Bob_McNally

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Just added another thing to be thankful for….

Room Rater

@ratemyskyperoom

3 years

Gulf. We love knotty pine. Oil guy. There’s even pipe shelves. 9/10 @Bob_McNally

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

A friendly word of caution: Don't use the SPR to stabilize global oil prices much less defend a price floor or ceiling. Leave market management to producers able/willing to flex wells. Pols will oppose buying low & traders will eat you alive if you try to defend a ceiling. 4/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

We'll pay later when geopolitical disruptions hammer consumers with even bigger oil price spikes. We may have to refill at higher prices, as we have in the past. We're leaving quite a mess for future consumers & leaders...let's recall these errors to hopefully learn. 11/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Historic: US overtakes Russia as Europe's top gas supplier. We're not even at the end of the beginning of this energy war & Europe remains critically short gas, but good that the US is proving to be an #ArsenalofEnergy . On that happy note, Happy Fourth to those celebrating!

Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Sliver lining, cont. Rare bipartisan moment maybe emerging to make the US an “arsenal of energy” a term coined by moi back in ‘14 in the NYT 🇺🇸 ….all forms of energy by the way.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Throwback Thursday: One of the earliest FTC investigations of illegal market manipulation in the gasoline market, from the dawn of the ICE age, 1920. They all turned out the same since - supply & demand at work, no evidence of anti-competitive behavior.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Well, a week into the new year and so far only -a surprise 1 mb/d Saudi cut, -Georgia runoff upset & Democratic sweep of DC -an insurrectionary ransacking of the US Capitol, and - perhaps another go at impeachment. Good to put tumultuous 2020 behind us.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

5 years

Especially after 9-11, few things preoccupied me more while serving on the White House National Security Council than the security Abqaiq, the most important facility on the planet few had heard of.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Don't expect a promise to refill below $67 will induce drillers to ramp activity. They don't regard thinly traded, distant futures as a real market price. The backwardated curve already encourages production, but financial, logistical, & political headwinds are strong. 5/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

The good: Biden officials are wise to call for refilling SPR. The folly of continually draining our emergency stockpiles amidst small spare capacity & big geopolitical disruption risks ought to be clear by now. And good to give DOE more flexibility to buy forward. 👏2/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

The bad: Last Nov's SPR exchange ranks in the Hall of SPR Infamy alongside President Clinton's SPR release 2 months before the '20 election. Totally political & God knows what we promised China to help. And just before Putin's Ukraine invasion triggered a World Energy War. 7/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Suggestion: How about asking Congress to cancel the short-sighted mandatory SPR drawdowns, maybe on the NDAA or Omni in the lame duck? Bipartisan action to correct a bipartisan mistake would show Washington can still function on basic national security matters. 6/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Fortunately we’ve prudently husbanded our emergency stockpiles for such an eventuality. Oh wait….

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

2 years

Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the U.S. warning of an imminent attack from Iran on targets in the kingdom #oott

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

It’s the very rare combo of a massive negative #oil demand shock, positive supply shock & no swing producer that makes #crude ‘s looming price implosion as historic as deep. Last time this terrible trifecta happened - 1930-1931. @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

But the US and IEA should have suspended sales after it soon became clear that Russian supply didn't tank. Better to have kept the powder dry ahead of this winter, when EU sanctions may trigger the major disruption that didn't happen earlier. 9/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Multiyear boom cycle will follow a multiyear bust cycle, like night follows day. The bullish kicker this time => demand defies consensus by not peaking soon. Russia's invasion of Ukraine throws a short cycle into the longer one, so may get better levels to buy & buckle up.

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

2 years

Saudi Aramco Says Global Oil Buffers May Vanish When Demand Recovers Energy crisis will be ‘severe and prolonged,’ says CEO Nasser Saudis say world must recognize need for more oil investments #oott

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

And it's good to state an intention to refill on lower crude prices - that would be a nice change. The Trump administration wanted to fill it cheaply in 2020, but Congress held the purse. But now, Biden can use revenues from emergency sales to refill it without Congress. 3/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

History comes full circle. The last time we saw two black swans - demand collapse and supply surge - in oil markets, TX sent troops into the fields and the RRC started 40 years of strict quotas. 1930-1932.

WSJ News Exclusive | Texas Weighs Curtailing Oil Production for First Time in Decades

Texas regulators are considering curtailing oil production in America’s largest oil-producing state, something they haven’t done in decades, people familiar with the matter said.

www.wsj.com

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 months

Your periodic reminder that "peak peak oil demand" (not a typo) approacheth. That is, the recently fashionable consensus that global oil demand will soon peak due to policy-driven EV adoption and soaring ICE fleet efficiency gains will itself soon peak. Reality cannot be

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Shale supply generated most of the buzz from today's inaugural @EIA STEO outlook to 2023. But more portentous: The yawning gap in gasoline demand forecasts between the STEO & EIA's AEO (12 months ago.) Very different implications for "peak demand." Both can't be right...

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

30 years after starting in energy markets, policy, and geopolitics in Washington, I'm very honored by this. And I'm also proud to be in some terrific company with friends and colleagues including @mj_sommers , Karen Knutson, and @karenaharbert .

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

3 years

🍾 @RapidanEnergy is proud to share that our founder and president @Bob_McNally was selected by @washingtonian Magazine as of Washington's 250 Most Influential People!

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

#OPEC +'s decision to go to monthly meetings reminds me of how @txrrc used to roll when the US was OPEC. Texas & other oil state regulators met monthly for 40 years. TX imposed quotas field-by-field, well-by-well and had a superb track record to show for it (chart below). #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

The journey to 2030 looks more like an energy trainwreck than transition. Consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders will have their hands full in managing collateral damage. We'll get through it, but only after learning from some expensive lessons about energy systems.

Amy Harder

@AmyAHarder

3 years

Oil, gas and coal prices could rise in response to this, and yet the world also won't have the cleantech ready to swiftly and massively shift to other sources at an affordable price. It's not a good situation.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

With critical energy infrastructure in the US & EU under direct attack since '21, the best time to bolster defenses and deterrence was years ago. The next best is right now. Some ideas for the cyber front:

Forum for American Leadership

@forum_american

2 years

Last fall, the FAL energy working group designed eight necessary steps to protect U.S. critical energy infrastructure. It’s time to revisit this plan to bolster U.S. and allied energy defense. ➡️

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

A little historical perspective on today's big #oil price collapse. On a monthly basis going back to 1859, the lowest real crude prices recorded were $2.50 per barrel, in January and February of 1862. Next lowest was $6.00 in mid-1931. 1/3

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Smallest in absolute terms since Nov 1986 when they hiked by 78 kb/d. But the smallest in percentage terms in history, 0.23% versus 0.59%. Courtesy of @RapidanEnergy 's crack analyst @hunterkornfeind . We'll try to look back to the Texas Railroad Commission Era...

Mark Finley

@finley_mark

2 years

Question for OPEC+ watchers: is today’s 100,000 b/d increase the smallest ever agreed by the group? #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

At least half of making good energy policy is avoiding bad energy policy. So some credit where credit is due: So far @POTUS has commendably avoided price caps, export bans, NOPEC, & tax grabs that would worsen price volatility, create shortages, & only deepen the immiseration.

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

2 years

@RapidanEnergy ’s @Bob_McNally with the last word in this lengthy @washingtonpost article by Jeff Stein on the political & economic costs of soaring pump prices, while @POTUS has only short term policy options that are either feeble or counterproductive.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 months

I welcome and appreciate the critique of my Wall Street Journal essay on the @IEA by my friend @JasonBordoff . Please see my response and welcome comments from him and others, asking just that we keep it civil as Jason and I have. 🧵

Jason Bordoff

@JasonBordoff

6 months

I’ve benefited so much from my friend @Bob_McNally ’s deep expertise, incl his exceptional @ColumbiaUEnergy book. One of the things I love about our friendship is the ability to occasionally & respectfully disagree. I have a different take on @IEA here:

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Shale never was or will be swing production. No fast/big/durable enough. Legally prohibited. But shale is flexible short-cycle supply that will be sorely missed later this decade, especially after the consensus capitulates to demand not peaking anytime soon. #buckleup #oott

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

2 years

@RapidanEnergy founder/president @Bob_McNally in today's astute @FT Big Read by @derek_brower and @mylesmccormick_ on the waning shale revolution and it's impact on global energy market, policy, and geopolitics.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

New oil net exporter, we hardly even knew ye....

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Deeply honored and grateful to @IA4EE 's selection committee, @JasonBordoff , for encouragement & introduction to @ColumbiaUP , and my intrepid research asst. and @RapidanEnergy colleague @f_omegna , who now runs our Geopolitical Risk Service. 🙏🙏🙏🙏

Columbia Univ Press

@ColumbiaUP

2 years

We are pleased to announce that @Bob_McNally 's CRUDE VOLATILITY is the Winner of the 2023 Marcel Boiteux Best International Energy Economics Book Award from the @IA4EE @caelyncobb #EconomicsBook #EconomicHistory #Economics #OPEC #AwardWinner

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

If all out market share breaks out, crude’s price floor is somewhere between here and zero but I’d wager closer to zero than here. Prices will fall until either Moscow or Riyadh call off the endurance contest, or North America sees massive shut ins and rig lay downs.

Manus Cranny

@ManusCranny

4 years

So spectacular credibility implosion ? Abyss ? $30 ? Where do we stop off.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

11 months

Texans, people put on earth by God to limit government and produce oil, resorted to government regulation of oil production so heavy handed Mao Tse-Tung would have blushed. To keep prices stable. For 4 decades. The backstory is here. Keeping things real. Crude

First Squawk

@FirstSquawk

3 years

SAUDI ENERGY MIN SAYS OPEC+ IS A RESPONSIVE REGULATOR TO A MARKET THAT NEEDS REGULATING

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Detroit, Rock City. First leg of our Great American Heartland Road-trip. Windsor, Canada in the background. Good to see cross border visits resume. Longest undefended border in the world. Grateful for our 🇨🇦 neighbors, friends, and allies.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

11 months

Good @ FT read suggests that climate may need to compete in public borrowing with other priorities, including hefty transfers to aging voters. (Apparently, folks aren't so keen on IMF-recommended carbon taxes.) Bingo. Short 🧵1/3

The $100tn path to net zero

In the absence of a global carbon tax, the green transition could prove politically expensive

www.ft.com

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

This week's 15 mb release of the final tranche of March's IEA emergency sales: It's complicated. Unlike last Nov's, March's release was initially warranted. @IEA warned we'd lose 3 mb/d of Russian supply in weeks (!) & OPEC+ spare was low. 8/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Oil's post-2014 bust phase has certainly been sporty (-$40) & the coming bull phase will likely be no less so. The transition moment of truth will come when soaring oil prices force pols to decide between greenlighting new FID or absorbing hammer blows to voters' pocketbooks.

arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

@Bob_McNally @WhiteHouse pretty amazing to see the freakout at $3 +/- gasoline. “Crude Volatility” looks on track to be a defining theme for the coming decade. Its been a while since it mattered.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 years

Utterly shameless, I will admit. I really enjoyed being on the panel with @JasonBordoff @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

And accelerated SPR drawdowns, alongside vanishing spare capacity, will make the coming boom cycle hella-bullish. With my friend @JoeMcMonigle @RapidanEnergy

Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Thanks @gbrew24 & indeed, after 7 years we are in the foothills of crude’s next multi-year boom cycle that will end, as they do sadly, in recession as oil costs hits macro burden levels. Demand to surprise higher & we all know about ⬇️ supply. Boom follows bust…buckle up. #oott

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Thanks @sohaibab9 and #COM for the wide-ranging discussion and please keep up your great work in the service of energy realism, literacy and even optimism!

Sohaib Abbas

@sohaibab9

2 years

Humbled by the response & engagement by our participants along with @Bob_McNally 1st ever twitter spaces & a magnificent 1 at that. 2 hrs felt like 5 mins, was only supposed to have been 4 1hr - Recording below 👇 folks #COM

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Nice echo from history. Ordering the FTC to investigate gasoline price gouging was one of the first Washington policy responses to rising pump prices, first used at the end of WWI. And regularly since. Never found guilt but they keep trying. Some things don’t change.

Doug Hengel

@DougHengel54

3 years

Time to haul the CEOs of Big Oil before Congress? What say you @Bob_McNally

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Like usual during a future emergency and at higher prices?

Garrett Golding

@gjgolding

2 years

How and when are we going to refill 210 mb of SPR crude?

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

7 months

The oil market remains in “show me the (disrupted) barrels” mode. Fair enough; head fakes aplenty in recent years. Only Iran contagion puts material supply loss risk in play. Things are escalating with Iran across the region, especially in Lebanon. Iran contagion risk isn’t

Last Call

@LastCallCNBC

7 months

“The market is waiting to see physical disruptions of oil,” says @RapidanEnergy President @Bob_McNally on oil prices after the Houthis vow retaliatory action against U.S.-led strikes in Yemen. “The market is inured. It’s shrugging off these risks.”

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Ban crude oil exports to lower domestic gasoline prices? It’s on President Biden’s option list, but would backfire by raising consumer prices at the worst time. The big winner would be Russia, economically and geopolitically. It would dismay our allies and startle investors.

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

3 years

@CNNBusiness asked @RapidanEnergy ’s @Bob_McNally about the consequences of banning crude #oil exports, as proposed last night by some US Senators. #oott #owngoal

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

11 months

Since early July, the #oil market has started to see, believe, and price the big deficits being dug into balances. I look forward to reviewing the volatile market, policy and geopolitical terrain with @SullyCNBC at 7pm ET on @LastCallCNBC . @RapidanEnergy #OOTT

CNBC Middle East

@CNBCMiddleEast

1 year

Oil market is in “believe it when I see it mode,” @Bob_McNally tells CNBC’s @Dan_Murphy as OPEC’s two-day symposium kicks off in Vienna.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 months

The @IEA canceled publishing reference case forecasts to placate climate activists. Without a reference case, officials cannot evaluate the costs and benefits of energy and climate policies. Based on its now exclusively wishful-thinking peak demand forecasts, IEA encourages a

Morgan Bazilian

@MBazilian

6 months

This is far from the first of such critiques of the International Energy Agency. Here is why the genre is not terribly helpful: 1. International organizations are not apolitical. 2. Energy modelling is always done with bias. 3. The IEA still produces various data on oil, gas,

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

5 years

Even if the fires are soon extinguished and the damage to Abqaiq is light, the gates of Hell opened a little wider today. #OOTT #Oil #Saudi #SaudiAramco

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Looking forward to a @CNN interview tonight at 7:25pm ET and then of course a @TwitterSpaces chat with @sohaibab9 tomorrow at 12pm ET. @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

You knew this was coming... In light of today's epic #OPEC + fail, if only there was a succinct book that analyzed the arduous history of attempts by swing producers to stabilize oil prices, & consequences for oil price volatility when they fail....

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Lord make me bullish crude, but not yet. #OOTT @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

We'll soon be arriving back to the totally free oil market. Please buckle your seatbelts, tightly.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

4 years

🚨BREAKING 🚨 Saudi Aramco to supply 12.3 million barrels a day in April, that's up from 9.7m b/d in March, and 300k b/d **above** the company's maximum sustainable capacity, so clearly Riyadh is tapping inventories for shock-and-awe strategy. Huge, huge escalation | #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

No restart timeframe by #ColonialPipeline is unfortunate. The Biden admin should state its willingness to take all steps necessary to respond if needed. Whether explicitly mentioning a possible Jones Act waiver or not, the signal would limit the #gasoline price rise.

Colonial Pipeline

@Colpipe

3 years

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Security must be a priority but hope this ugly fence comes down soon.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Hallelujah - Sensible energy policy lives! Kudos to Congress & @ENERGY for canceling 140mb of foolish mandatory SPR sales through FY27 in the Omni. Let's do this, rest up over the holidays, & then move on to a sensible bipartisan energy & climate overhaul next year.

Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Throwing away emergency oil stocks to raise revenue or douse pump prices is a classic example of a short-sighted and expensive policy mistake. Circling back & ending on a positive note, let's build on glimmers of wisdom & cancel those foolish mandatory SPR drawdowns. 12/12

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Sensing an uptick in interest on the Hill in one of my favorite subjects - the causes and out look for #oil price volatility. @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 years

My prepared Senate testimony on oil prices below. “Space Mountain” era shld be familiar. But IMO 2020 is new, at least in DC. In 27 yrs in this biz don’t recall such a portentous energy issue lying off Washington’s radar so long. On radar screen now.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

RIP Mohammad Barkindo. A gentleman who livened up an often heavy business.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Unless someone blinks, #oil prices will fall to shut-in or curtailment levels, likely in the teens or single digits. As storage disappears, prices will signal value destruction to anyone lifting a barrel from below the earth as there won't be anywhere to store or burn it above.

Jason Bordoff

@JasonBordoff

4 years

As @Bob_McNally discussed on this weekend's @ColumbiaUEnergy podcast about the oil crash, prices are not done plummeting yet.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

5 months

Seems like a day doesn’t go by without a country announcing a delay in or weakening of previously announced climate policies, from boiler and ICE bans to fuel efficiency rules and EV subsidies. Most recently, the NYT scooped that President Biden agreed to his weaken his

Big_Orrin

@Big_Orrin

5 months

This is why the IEA have to publish the base case scenario where nothing changes from current policies. Green policies are continually being reversed because the population don’t like them. @Bob_McNally is correct

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Sad Company

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

A rough reminder that true power in the global oil market flows from the barrel of spare capacity. @RapidanEnergy

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

3 years

NEWS ANALYSIS: For U.S. President Joe Biden, the easy part was threatening a response to OPEC+. Now comes the tougher challenge of delivering one | #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Thanks @SullyCNBC for having me on to discuss the World Energy War getting underway. Starting in Europe with natural gas, it'll spread globally this winter into oil and impact all energy, while roiling geopolitics and energy/climate policies. #BuckleUp

Climate crisis threatens EU unity, says Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group

Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, and Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss Russian sanctions on European energy supplies...

www.cnbc.com

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 years

Deeply honored my book Crude Volatility received the honorable mention in economics in this year's Prose Awards. Thank you @ColumbiaUP @ColumbiaUEnergy @f_omegna @JasonBordoff and all who contributed so much! @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

OPEC+'s cut was mainly about price stability & signaling vigilance, but it coincided with soaring US political sensitivity to pump prices and Russia's attack on Ukraine. As such, it speeds the unfolding World Energy War in which few will remain neutral.

Biden vows consequences for Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ decision

President Joe Biden pledged on Tuesday "there will be consequences" for U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ announced last week that it would cut its oil production target over U.S. object...

www.reuters.com

Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Thanks @SullyCNBC for having me on to discuss the World Energy War getting underway. Starting in Europe with natural gas, it'll spread globally this winter into oil and impact all energy, while roiling geopolitics and energy/climate policies. #BuckleUp

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

8 months

Indeed, I'm very proud of our indefatigable and talented @RapidanEnergy colleagues who undertook the careful modeling. While oil demand isn't about to peak, neither is non-OPEC+ supply growth. So OPEC+ has its work cut out for it over the next few years. But toward the end of

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

8 months

Even with fast EV adoption, oil demand won’t peak by 2030. Proud of our colleagues for updating Rapidan’s Ten-Year Oil Outlook!

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Really hope this isn't true. We need more and better global energy data, and BP has been a champion in supplying historical data to investors, researchers, and analysts. Hydrocarbons (>80% total energy) remain the lifeblood of modern civilization and aren't going anywhere soon.

Ron Bousso

@ronbousso1

2 years

BP is considering ending the publication of its Statistical Review of World Energy, over 70 years after it first published the benchmark report, as it focuses on its shift to renewables, it tells @Reuters Check out this map from its first report in 1952 #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

1 year

Thank you @JasonBordoff for strongly encouraging me to write Crude Volatility. And thank you to @ColumbiaUEnergy for making it the inaugural book in its superb series, and for amplifying its message. I’m lucky to have friends and colleagues like you.

Jason Bordoff

@JasonBordoff

1 year

Huge congratulations to @Bob_McNally for winning @IA4EE best book award for his great and prescient book Crude Volatility. As @ColumbiaUEnergy celebrates its 10th anniversary, we’re honored Bob’s was the first book in our Center on Global Energy Policy book series @ColumbiaUP 👏

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Since '08 (!) @EIAgov has been forecasting gasoline demand will imminently peak & collapse, due to fuel economy standards. Last 2 years shown below. Based on govt forecasts, the question is less about why refiners cut capacity & more about why they have so much left. #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

5 years

Starting the day early. Relaxing weekends are overrated anyway..... @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Happy and grateful to reunite with three towering energy experts, successful past @EIAgov leaders, and friends Adam Sieminski, Howard Gruenspecht, and Guy Caruso in Houston at the @USA4EE Conference in Houston.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Yesterday's @WhiteHouse broadside contradicts the fashionable notion that Dems welcome higher pump prices to sell EVs. When the oil market tightens later this decade & excess OPEC+ spare withers, the US won't have the option of calling foreign producers to cap gasoline prices.

Rapidan Energy Group

@RapidanEnergy

3 years

@RapidanEnergy 's @Bob_McNally on rising pump prices forming the "tip of the spear" that threatens @POTUS 's public support and climate policies in Congress. Gas price concerns put Biden White House in a jam over climate policy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

“No need” will quickly be translated to “should not therefore be allowed” and invoked to try to impose peak oil by policy means. IEA’s finding will further raise the cost & risk of new FID and tighten the already über tight balance later this decade and beyond. #boomfollowsbust

Jeff Colgan

@JeffDColgan

3 years

Quite a lot of fuss being made today of @iea report saying #climate sustainability has "no need" of any more fossil fuel investment. Just one teeny tiny problem: investing in oil and gas remains very profitable -- and will stay that way unless policies change dramatically

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Right. This sleeper debt risk threatens US E&Ps much more than climate policies this decade. Starving, indebted govts will be tempted to grab profits swollen by the boom cycle. How Much Washington Really Owes: $100 Trillion by @VinceKolber via @WSJ

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

*NOVAK: OPEC+ OUTPUT COOPERATION CAN'T BE ENDLESS Comment: That may be true. Historically, swing producer cooperation lasted from weeks to decades. But unless another group replaces OPEC+ the world market & economy better buckle up for endless Space Mountain volatility.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

7 years

Opec more successful managing sentiment than supply - real additional cuts or price collapse. @TheRapidanGroup #OOTT

Why Saudi Arabia’s quest to prop up oil prices is failing

Thanks to a production glut, Americans are paying President Clinton-era prices at the pump.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 years

Shale & true swing producers share an abhorrence for boom-bust oil price cycles but otherwise have little in common. I argue here in today’s @FT $60 isn’t a new normal, shale can’t swing and boom wil follow bust. @RapidanEnergy #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 months

Oil history, economics, and politics repeatedly demonstrate that the only thing worse than someone managing the oil supply is no one managing the oil supply. Chronic, wild boom-bust price cycles for the lifeblood of modern civilization are ruinous for everyone on the planet

Adi Imsirovic

@AdiSurreyEnergy

3 months

Surely 'winning' OPEC+ cut is not a good thing Bob?

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

10 months

…so to speak.

Hadley Gamble

@_HadleyGamble

10 months

Love hearing @Bob_McNally on a rant today @BakerInstitute : we have seriously deluded ourselves that we are on the path of peak demand while the @IEA has become the “lapdog of climate fanatics” #oott #godblessTexas

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

NOPEC: Congress’s sleeper nuclear option springs to life. Reminder: Half of good energy policy is avoiding bad energy policy. @RapidanEnergy

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

2 years

Too kind @BurggrabenH . Thanks for contributing today and every day in the energy arena.

Alexander Stahel 🌻

@BurggrabenH

2 years

@BJamz2022 @sohaibab9 @Bob_McNally @Bob_McNally is simply brilliant - I mean that.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 years

May 2018: Iran sanctions, Venezuela “election” & sanctions, Iraqi elections, possible Trump-KJU sitdown. Unusually high # of major foreseeable #crudeoil risk events falling in one month. Good month for analysts not to plan vacations. @RapidanEnergy #OOTT

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

1 year

Thanks @gulf_intel for the chat on oil markets. Recapping and expanding a bit in a short 🧵1/6 History and oil’s prevailing intrinsic economic qualities strongly suggest that absent an effective, durable swing producer, crude prices should oscillate between multi-year cycles

Gulf Intelligence

@gulf_intel

1 year

𝗛𝗔𝗟𝗙-𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘 𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗞: “Oil Market at the Foothills of a Multi-year Boom Price Cycle!” - @Bob_McNally , Founder & President, @RapidanEnergy ▶️ #OOTT #energy #markets #oilandgas

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Too much...too little...then too much...and so on.

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

4 years

Oil Companies Wonder If It’s Worth Looking for Oil Anymore #oott

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

6 years

Never was.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Think apropos now... Main take from my '17 book Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices: Absent a swing producer #oil prices range between shut-in & demand destruction. Nowadays that implies single to triple-digits. Implication: buckle up.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

Thanks @JasonBordoff and your talented team at @ColumbiaUEnergy , along with my colleagues @f_omegna @AllysonCutright and Campbell Palfrey!

Center on Global Energy Policy

@ColumbiaUEnergy

4 years

In a new commentary, @ColumbiaUEnergy Non-Resident Fellow @Bob_McNally explores the shock to oil markets from #COVID19 and the ensuing market-share war between Saudi Arabia and Russia: .

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

5 years

Buried in here - Chinese NEV sales plunged 45% in Oct y/y, 4th consecutive monthly drop & after down 34% in Sep. Sales cratering after big subsidy cuts in June. Peak subsidy poses an underappreciated risk to the peak demand narrative. @RapidanEnergy

China Considers Cutting Electric-Car Subsidies Again

China is considering further cuts to subsidies for electric-vehicle purchases, according to people familiar with the matter, threatening to deal another blow to a once-burgeoning industry that’s...

www.bloomberg.com

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

4 years

OPEC+'s epic fail means crude prices will fall until either some group of producers restores discretionary cuts and/or relatively high opex producers reduce production by shutting in or slowing fracking. Those are options short term; the only question is how low prices go.

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Bob McNally

@Bob_McNally

3 years

Talked with @WSJ ’s @JinjLee about the folly & danger of replacing objective analysis w wishful thinking in global oil markets. Result: capital misallocation, economic train wrecks, civil unrest, & disrupted transitions. #WEO2021 #oott @RapidanEnergy

This Oil and Gas Road Map Could Lead Planners Astray

The International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook is a rallying call for politicians to act on climate change but its projections illustrate why the coming transition could be full of...

www.wsj.com

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