Marko Papic @Geo_papic Twitter profile

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Marko Papic

2 years

In 2014, I published a report @bcaresearch titled Apex of Globalisation. I actually wanted to title it "The End of..." but it was too bold. The reasons for the "end" have little to do with this war. It's all about multipolarity.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

One interesting takeaway from the attempted mutiny/coup is that Prigozhin kicked it off with a 30 minute speech on Telegram that has largely been translated to Western audience through second-hand reports. Here are some direct snippets from it that are interesting...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

It's time for a thread on the European natural gas freakout. No doubt, Europe should be concerned given that the TTF contract is up over 200% YTD. But with the EURUSD at parity (a level it never reached during the height of the Euro Area crisis), how much of this is priced in?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

The media is going to spend the next several weeks obsessing over President Biden's replacement. This will drown out what I think was a pretty important signal from President Trump's nomination speech in Milwaukee. Allow me to elaborate...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Everyone in the macro space is fully on board with the Hydrogen Economy: high growth + high inflation = long commodities / short bonds. I mean... that's my view too! But then you look at a chart like this... and wonder. Is it time to bet against the consensus?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

This is my 🧵on the US October 7 semiconductor ban against China. I had a lot of questions about this from FinTwit followers. Since I write research for a living, I cannot just post everything I'm thinking on Twitter. But here are some thoughts...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

10 months

The Hamas attack has no strategic logic other than to provoke Israel into a response, thus making normalization of relations with Israel politically difficult for many in the region. This scuttles the Sunni Arab - Israel detente, makes Israel less safe, and favors Iran.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Here is another piece of red meat for all my... fans. Russian gas supply has fallen by 70% and people believe that it will go to zero, but it is worth noting that the total gas flow to EU is only 5% lower than last October and has been relatively stable over the past 12 months.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

10 months

Even a significant conventional war - such as the 2006 Lebanon War - did not impact oil prices. Macro context was far more powerful.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

A very important indication that Realpolitik and national interests — NOT ESG — dominate foreign policy decisions of major powers. The US-Saudi detente, given level of oil prices, was one of the easiest forecasts to make this year.

US seeks full reset with Saudi Arabia, effectively moving on from the murder of Jamal Khashoggi |...

Senior US officials have conveyed to Saudi Arabia that the US is prepared to move forward with a “reset” of the relationship, and effectively move on from the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist...

www.cnn.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

9 months

Capex intentions collapsing, worse than the "mid-cycle" slowdown of 2015-2016. The consensus sell side forecasts of "late-2024 recession" could be wrong. An "I" and "G" led shallow recession may already be here. The Fed overreacts for pol reasons. Voila... your 2024 forecast.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

Joe Biden is right now, at this point in his presidency, the least popular president since WWII. But yeah... "the Fed might not cut." 🤣

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Ironically, everyone got 🇺🇦war wrong. It took barely any🛢️off the market. In fact, it gave us nearly the same supply AT LOWER PRICES. That's the non-linearity of geopolitics, which many investors struggle with. Too much focus on 🇺🇦 has taken investors'👀 off the real risk: MENA.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Fade?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

10 months

A reminder to everyone that Israel-Palestinian conflicts this century have not been market relevant. I am open minded that this can change, but thus far "what happens in the Levant, stays in the Levant" has been a reality.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

That is a mistake as it means that most investors are forecasting a far more aggressive Trump administration - on trade and foreign policy - than may actually be the case.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

9 months

This is potentially a huge development. It could take Taiwan off the map as a geopolitical risk for the remainder of the decade (even though I think it already is off the map). Thank you @ShanghaiMacro

Shanghai Macro Strategist

@ShanghaiMacro

9 months

It is no exaggeration to say that China's geopolitical risk premium may have collasped over the past 24 hours: 1. Biden-Xi meeting is about to occur. 2. A joint ticket is forming in Taiwan that may defeat the pro-independence DPP. Incredible development!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

I have no insights into the Adani Group saga as I have zero experience reseaching single name equities. I would not even know where to begin. However, I think that there is a broader macro story here that folks are missing. A brief 🧵...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Wait... what? Europeans are not as dumb as FinTwit would like to make them out to be and the Kremlin is not as strategic? You bet ya. Russians waited too long to fully cut off natural gas to Europe. To me, this suggests they are far less strategic than people think.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

EU electricity/energy crisis is going to hurt. A lot. But it's a temporary situation that the continent will overcome. Meanwhile, its tourism and industrial exports just got a massive FX boost that they clearly don't need as Europe is super competitive on both fronts already.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

In other words, someone like Prigozhin can "open a safe space" for others to criticize the war in a similar manner. No longer are Kremlin critics merely liberals and Western stooges. They now include a merciless mercinary who has a stellar reputation as a Russian patriot.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

Europe continues not to freeze itself to death, or de-industrialize. One of the less understood reasons is that 🇨🇳and 🇯🇵have imported less LNG over the past 24ms, leaving more supply for 🇪🇺. Japan's demand decline is profound, a function of nuclear reactor restart.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

8 months

Europe won. Russia lost. Sorry (majority of) Twitter. By 2028, if not sooner, there will be so much LNG in the world that prices may collapse. Great piece by my friend Craig Mellow from Barrons.

Europe Swears Off Russian Gas. The Unexpected Price.

European gas prices have settled at about twice their 10-year average, one researcher says.

www.barrons.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

6 months

This chart does not really need any comment.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 months

I'm really excited to announce that I AM COMING HOME! I have re-joined @bcaresearch and will lead a new global macro investment strategy, dubbed GeoMacro. In addition, I will create a new product called BCA Access.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

The neon shortage hysteria is silly. Ukraine went from 70% to 50% of neon gas production in a few years and will go to zero quickly. Why? Because neon is not a natural resource bound by geography. It can be extracted from air, from anywhere and plants are already being set up.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Somebody upstairs really hates President Putin.

Colin McCarthy

@US_Stormwatch

2 years

Europe is experiencing its worst heatwave ever recorded. The combined intensity and scale of this winter heatwave is unlike anything in European history.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Clocktower Group did the math and we believe that there is almost zero probability that Europe does not achieve gas storage levels of 80% by October 1. They may even get to 90% by then. Today, media reported that Germany is already at 80% storage.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Year 2022 was one when the constraint-framework took three hits in the chin: Putin going all out in Ukraine, Xi tripling down on zero-COVID, and Jay going Volcker. In 2023, the material constraints will strike back on all three fronts. Remember... constraints are undefeated.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

Moments like this can change the narrative. Prigozhin is arguing that the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with Russia's national security, geopolitical ambitions, protecting Russian speakers/ethnics, or natural resources. It's all about domestic politics. I very much agree!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Lots of conversations on what constitutes a Fed pivot. My (low-conviction) view here is that the Fed will have pivoted not when it cuts or pauses or does something with QT/QE... but when the 2-year real yield stops climbing like a SpaceX rocket shot into space. Thoughts?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

Whatever happens this weekend in Moscow, the fact is that 🇷🇺 support for the war in 🇺🇦is not as high as people think. Westerners love to mythologize Russian pain tolerance. History suggests otherwise. No country has had more revolutions following failed offesnive wars than 🇷🇺.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Astonishing chart. We are witnessing a true birth of a nation. (Apologies to anyone who has posted this chart before... and yes, I understand the data may be biased, but the results from the battlefield speak the truth).

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

8 months

I hope that everyone is having a great ending to the year 2023! As you are taking it easy and mulling over the past 12 months, I thought it was a good time for a 🧵about geopolitics and finance.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

What's kind of ironic is that both Kremlin apologists and Ukrainian/Liberal/Western critics kind of agree that Russia has STRATEGIC reasons to invade Ukraine. I really disagree. I agree with Prigozhin. He is right. This was domestic PR.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Great chart from @GoldmanSachs . Three out of five income quintiles have still seen a positive real disposable income growth, despite inflation. The bottom quintile is definitely hurting, but it also accounts for 7% of total consumption. Recession is not likely in next 12 months.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Thank you to my friends @MacroAlf and @AndreasSteno ! I’m sure 90% of FinTwit will hate the views, but hey… gotta give the people what they want! Also, I’m expecting that Andreas/Alf bump!!

Andreas Steno Larsen

@AndreasSteno

2 years

I have really looked forward to releasing this edition of The Macro Trading Floor. Bullish Oil and energy? Think again according to @Geo_papic Thanks for joining the show Marko!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

China is still a middle income economy that requires FDI to progress along the technological curve. As such, the "investors' riot" of 2023 has to be reversed, or else China may find itself stuck in the dreaded middle income trap. Chart below is quite telling.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Taking a break from macro and geopolitics to share one of my favorite charts: a diagram of Koby Bryant's every shot in his career. Two immediate thoughts: 1) nobody shoots like Kobe today; 2) If you're going to be in this business, you better be ok missing. Shooters shoot.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

I totally understand why the immediate reaction here is to think that this is a nothingburger. But I'd watch this carefully. There is a world where the EU becomes the Holy Roman Empire, while a group of states integrate further along a new dimension.

France's Macron: Meeting soon to discuss new European political community

French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said there will be a first meeting in Prague in coming weeks to discuss creating a new European political community to address political and security-rela...

www.reuters.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

9 months

Investors should consider this new narrative that "Trump is worse for inflation than anything else" as part of the full court press on the Fed to look through inflation TODAY for the sake of its stability TOMORROW (and beyond). The US election is now THE ONLY macro narrative.

Eric Levitz

@EricLevitz

9 months

Given that inflation is the American electorate’s top concern, the fact that Donald Trump is campaigning on a comprehensive plan for making stuff more expensive should really be getting more attention.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

If China stimulates in earnest, as my team thinks that it will, that will be a far more market-relevant catalyst than anything that the Fed or the Kremlin can do. Beijing is the capital that folks should be watching, not DC or Moscow.

Shanghai Macro Strategist

@ShanghaiMacro

1 year

Zou Lan, head of PBoC's monetary policy department: "Given that the supply-demand dynamics in the property market has undergone profound changes, there is room to optimize the policies introduced during the overheating periods in the past." You know what ths means?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Furhtermore, if you're shorting EURUSD because of supposedly long-term dissadvantages for Europe, you're probably going to lose your shirt. Europe has been dealing with higher electricity prices for DECADES...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

Trump believes that he can employ 1980s solutions to the 2020s China-US trade war. This is relevant because he does not see China as a national security threat, first and foremost. He sees it as a commercial competitor.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

Trump is a mercantilist. And if Beijing gives him a good commercial deal, he will take it. He won’t worry about Chinese factories building Chinese EVs in Ohio that then spy on American suburbanites through the dashboard.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

For one, Prigozhin has a stellar reputation as a "hard man" and a soldier. Nobody is going to successfully accuse him of being a liberal, Western, patsy. So the fact that he has unloaded such a littany of criticisms against Russian leadership is relevant.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Wars end with a military equilibrium, not a political one. Negotiations talk IS relevant, but only because it proves that the war is already in stasis. It's not about what Zelensky or Putin WANT. It's what they can GET. You need a 🔍 to see difference in two maps below.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

A decade ago, I started finance industry's very first geopolitical strategy at BCA. Initially, I was bullish about a lot of risks in the headlines, but warned investors that 🇺🇸🇨🇳 tensions would dominate the futre. That forecast was right... but may now be "old in the tooth."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

Despite Fed raising rates, the CAPEX-led cycle continues (although at a slower pace). Most investors don't understand how this is possible, but businesses and consumers borrowed and invested even with interest rates at double digits.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

11 months

One of my favorite charts right now. It shows that global assets (like US 10-year) are no longer tied to the hip of Chinese credit growth. This is a new cycle. China matters, but its diagnosticity for bonds and commodities is a lot lower. And it's all because of US politics.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

The 🎈incident tells us a lot more about US domestic politics and the US political posture towards China than about Beijing's intelligence gathering capabilities. As such, it is an important insight into "Machiavellian America" that investors should definitely heed.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

Who has a good explanation for this chart?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

My latest hot take on 🇨🇳. The speed with which Beijing has pivoted away from real estate Red Lines, zero-COVID-19, and fiscal austerity suggests that politics -- not ideology -- drive the Xi Admin. You know, like everywhere else in the world!!

Clocktower's Marko Papic on Markets

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group discusses his outlook for markets and where he sees opportunities. He speaks on "Bloomberg Middle East" on the sidelines of the "Bloomberg New...

www.bloomberg.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Natural gas only accounts for 15% of Germany’s electricity production. In contrast, the thermal coal prices in China increased by 230% between February and October last year, and coal accounts for 60% of China’s electricity generation. China somehow survived!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Does not fit the conventional narrative.

German gas storage 80% full, progresses despite Russian cuts

Germany’s gas storage facilities are now more than 80% full, showing steady progress despite a drastic reduction in deliveries from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.

apnews.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"As far as I know, Zelensky was open to anything when he became president. All we had to do was get down from our high horse and go make a deal. The entire Western Ukraine is populated by genetically Russian people. What is happening now is that we are just killing Russians."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Why did Europe get there? Because it was READY for the Russian cut off. Since January, net storage injections were above 2018-2022 average. Meanwhile, Russia, for some bizarre reason (maybe because they love money), did not cutoff the gas in earnest until the summer.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

6 months

Just a little reminder that no Republican president in modern history has ever cut the budget deficit. This is not a partisan statement (remember... I... just... don't... care). Instead, it is a foreshadowing for the bond market.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"Definitely not the people of Donbas. All the revenues will be robbed and looted again. Our war with those who oppress Russians has turned into looting and stealing. Looting and stealing elevated to the levels of national ideology."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

Great article, capturing the geo-macro context of the moment. Everyone wants to move out of China to _______ [insert EM economy]. But then, when asked how it is going, they complain that the new destination doesn't have the efficiency of China, or ports and roads of China!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

... and yet... It has not lost global export share. In other words, you should ask yourself a different question: WHY HASN'T THE US GAINED AN EXPORT MARKET SHARE GIVEN ITS MASSIVE ENERGY ADVANTAGE?! (Blame China? Blame Europe's "Chicken tax"? Come on now... we all know why).

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

@DoombergT @ttmygh @LukeGromen @SKNWilkinson I think we broke it @DoombergT !!! We broke Twitter!!!!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 month

The upcoming week is going to be very important for investors. It will be a window into the post-November 5 asset allocation mix. Now, the impact of the attempted assassination could fade. As such, this week is critical to monitor and learn from.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

“Between 2014-2020 Donbas was looted by those close to the president, FSB, and oligarchs. These are people who stole from the people of Donbas. There was supposed to be local police/army presence to defend the population in case on a Ukrainian attack."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

On Twitter for a year and I have not promoted my book, Geopolitical Alpha, once. This is the first and only time I will do so. I hope that my followers who have not read it, will consider doing so! I am really proud of the latest edition (in my mother tongue!) Thank you all!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

First, on China, President Trump said (and I abridge... to... uhm... clarify): “Large factories are being built across the border in Mexico…. They’re being built by China to make cars and to sell them into our country... we don’t mind that happening. But those plants are going

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

9 months

2024 is going to be an AMAZING year for geo-macro investing! By the way, if anyone thinks the Fed is not political, you're going to have a fun year defending that view over the next 12 months. 🙃

Axelrod suggests Biden drop out of 2024 presidential race

Former President Obama’s senior adviser David Axelrod on Sunday suggested President Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race in the wake of a new poll showing the incumbent trailing …

thehill.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

11 months

The debate on "excess savings" is a bizarre one. It is apparently OK to think of "excess savings" in the aggregate, but when I show the chart below, I am immediately rebuked that this is just "rich people" (which... by the way... is not entirely correct).

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

4 months

More up to date chart of what I sent to @johnauthers . I don't know much, but it is CLEAR stocks are not down because of geopolitics. What is intriguing is that oil is struggling to break out even in these unprecedented times. Are bonds or oil wrong?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

12 months was too short of a call, but not far off the mark... it now seems.

‘I Give Putin 12 Months’ or Less, Geopolitical Expert Papic Says

When policy makers ignore material constraints, he adds, ‘they get punished’

www.bloomberg.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

More small, but important, news out of China.

Shanghai Macro Strategist

@ShanghaiMacro

2 years

Senior leaders, including President Xi, did not wear masks during today’s National Day celebration events. Onshore investors broadly perceive this as another important signal for a potential recalibration of zero covid next year.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

And yet, China’s industrial sector did not collapse and its exports have continued to be strong, despite all the draconian measures adopted by the government to curb electricity prices. Industrialized societies can deal with an energy crisis better than Sri Lanka?! A shocker!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Good reminder that the path of gasoline prices really matters...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

What landing?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

The fact that somebody of his stature and reputation has openly made these claims is, I think, very relevant. Especially as many of his detractors are either professional soldiers who will stay quiet on politics (and will challange him on legality of action) or political hacks.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

As such, he is comfortable with Chinese corporations investing in the US, setting up large manufacturing plants. If it employs Americans, then it is all right. This is far different from the Democrats and the Biden administration, which have struggled to separate the two issues.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"Already in late Feb, soldiers were suffering shameful and embarrassing defeats. They were not only losing their lives, but also their reputation. African leaders (where I was stationed at the time) were contacting me and asking how Russia could have fallen to such shame."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Support for EURO is at a multi-decade high in most member states. Could this level erode over the next 12 months given energy crisis? ABSOLUTELY. But there is a lot of slack. Also, you couldn't get 70% of Americans to agree that babies are cute. This is what consensus looks like.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"On February 24, nothing out of the ordinary was happening. The Ministry of Defense (MoD) is trying to lie to the administration and population that there was excessive aggression from Ukraine’s side and that they were trying to attack Russia with the entire NATO."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 month

The first GeoMacro report... dropping within hours...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

But wait... there is more. As @ShanghaiMacro has pointed out, Europe's energy crisis pales in comparison to what China experienced last year. The maximum drawdown for CSI 300 was 8% amid the crisis, which is roughly similar to DAX’s 10% correction since early June this year.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

There is no evidence of ALPHA, of India stealing global export market share. So, next time you read some headline about some major company outsourcing to India over China, ask yourself if you're just believing anecdotal stories instead of looking into the macro data.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

Multipolarity has now replaced 🇺🇸 hegemony as the dominant geopolitical paradigm. I've certainly done my part to effect that shift, having argued since 2011 that the world is multipolar. Question now is not whether the world is multipolar, but rather how long it will remain so.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 months

The risk off in the French bond market is merely an amuse bouche for the main course in November!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

How is that possible? This is because gas supply from alternative sources has increased by 31%. So even if Russia cuts the remaining, minimal gas supply, why is it the end of Europe? Honest question... maybe the chart is wrong. Or math is wrong...

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"On March 19 I arrived in Ukraine. I asked the local military leaders why we don’t report the number of injured and killed. I was told that this doesn’t interest anyone up the chain. There are certain goals that must be met. And the number of dead will be counted later."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"February 24, 2022... the whole operation was kept a secret. The commanders who were supposed to lead had no idea what was going on. Victory maps with prettily drawn arrows were brought to Shoigu by those who have never held a weapon. And so, what happened happened."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"A bunch of idiots thought that nobody would realize what they were up to with their military training exercises right before their stupidly planned operation, and they stupidly thought that no one would stop them when they marched on Kyiv."

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

@sawtelle310 @MacroAlf @youflavio @ttmygh @DoombergT @LukeGromen @SKNWilkinson Just like there was no mechanism for Greece to be bailed out. And yet here we are. Legal issues don’t matter in the EU. Politics is king.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

26 days

Trump effectively admitted that he was on the brink of concluding a deal with Iran. It suggests that he is not ideologically opposed to making a deal with Tehran. Instead, he wants to negotiate with sticks not with carrots.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

9 months

Too many 🐻 have been expecting a decline in consumption to usher a recession. My view has been that US households are far more resilient this cycle. As such, a recession will start with a corporate cut in capex spending. Looks like we are headed that way!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"When we captured factories, why didn’t we start working in them? Instead, all the machinery gets disassembled and taken to Russia. We captured a liquor factory in TK oblast (in Donbas), and already it’s being decided when it should launch. But who will profit from it?"

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

1 year

"Second, the war was needed for the oligarchs. It was needed for the clan that today pretty much rules Russia. This oligarch clan receives everything it possibly can." He then goes into some "insider baseball" on Ukrainian politics that I truncate.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

In January 2016, I penned what I think was the worst piece of research in my career (see below, almost every bullet point was wrong!). Within days of publication, the Fed pivoted and China stimulated. Sounds familiar? The macro setup for 2023 is looking quite similar. 🐻beware.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

2 years

My favorite chart on China right now... No Testing... No Cases! Straight out of the Donald Trump playbook!

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

The ability of 🇪🇺to source LNG, the ability of 🇺🇦to get its grain to the market, and the ability of the 🌍to overcome the pandemic supply-chain problems are all signs that bottlenecks are often overstated risks. In the 21st century, we are VERY good at resolving these issues.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

4 months

Where did all the "excess savings narratives" dissapear? It is very interesting how the macro consensus has swung violently from HOLY CRAP 2023 RECESSION IS HERE to WE WILL NEVER HAVE A RECESSION AGAIN. What if the🧸were just early? Isn't that a more plausible scenario?

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

11 months

Ukraine is not a major strategic piece for either Russia nor the West. It just... isn't. I am not going to defend that view in 280 characters on Twitter, so if you🤯, it is what it is. BUT... It IS strategic to POLAND. And yet EVEN 🇵🇱, is now pivoting.

Poland’s president: Ukraine like ‘drowning person clinging to anything available’

Polish President Andrzej Duda on Tuesday compared Ukraine’s fight for survival to that of a “drowning person” capable of bringing down those who try to help. “Ukraine is behaving …

thehill.com

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

7 months

As the US election officially kicks off, I thought it was a good time to revisit one of my favorite – and scariest – charts on US politics. It shows the rising influence of party membership on VALUES.

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Marko Papic

@Geo_papic

3 months

Savings rate remains super low... the YOLO Economy remains a reality...

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