FJB Capital 🚁 @capital_fjb Twitter profile

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@HolyCoves

@jessiexraee

@monsterinc9177

@Mercilie_

@pakaronald47

FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

Jfc Zukin dude what are we doing here lol $MNDY

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

New conspiracy theory: $MSFT & $GOOG reported on the same exact date each of the past 5 qtrs, and in 12 of last 14 - in both outliers, MSFT went first This time, MSFT chose to report 7 days after GOOG, and backdrop is 2Q24 eps season comes after a month of investors panicking

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

Really nice visualization of the current state of Software from the Jefferies TMT desk tonight: "The definition of what “high growth” is continues to be redefined across Software. As can be seen in the chart below across the 105 Software companies we track, we’re now at the

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Do we think MSFT knows AI is vaporware yet and just feels like they’re in too deep and can’t break character now, or do we think Satya actually fully believes in the sentiment behind the rambled nonsense he spewed this afternoon?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

@CoorsLightCEO You might not like it, but this is what edge looks like

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

@CAGR_Party e-bit-dah em-o-i-see cay-gur only acceptable answers

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

you ever just sit back and think about how there are dudes out there spending their entire careers covering like Utilities or Banks

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Lol what the fuck is he talking about? Were we listening to the same call?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

$ADSK holders reading this list like

The Future Investors

@ftr_investors

4 months

What are the Best-Led Companies with exceptional leadership? Glassdoor just announced a Top 50, the 2024 edition. Here are the 25 best public companies from that list: 1. $NVDA - Nvidia 2. $RJF - Raymond James 3. $EQH - Equitable 4. $AMD - AMD 5. $IOT - Samsara 6. $ADSK -

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

Lmfao zero audience applause whatsoever. @DavidSacks is a 105IQ NPC who thinks he’s a 140IQ dissident genius

Deva Hazarika

@devahaz

2 months

Sacks speaking at RNC might cost him a cabinet spot

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

based on today's latest disclosure, monthly $ADBE Firefly usage across Creative Cloud customers now at record high levels + reaccelerating since the March call

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

7 months

anyone still constructive on $PAYC look away no hiding or blaming slowing employment for this indictment of a chart. revenue growth cratering into '24 sure looks more company-specific than not to me. neg read-across for $PCTY is very overdone

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

22 days

Jfc man this just keeps getting worse and worse, absolutely bush league stuff from this team $ADSK

notreload

@thudderwicks

22 days

$ADSK -2.4% [Autodesk continued to use a controversial sales strategy after promising investors it would stop and ignored internal warnings about the risks of doing so, according to previously unreported internal documents — Bloomberg]

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 years

lmao somehow a wine company produced a better ad than any republican politician in the last 30 years

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

$PANW time

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Jfc man, terminal VC brain is brutal

Yuri Sagalov

@yuris

1 month

Azure at $81B run rate and growing 30% is a ~$1.5T dollar company hiding inside of Microsoft. 🤯 Absolutely insane.

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

Every single one of these “quality compounder” portfolios is the exact same list of names every single time

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

@bucketshopcap Lmao gotta end on the high note of unexpected comedic relief after getting torched for 40 uninterrupted minutes. Certified bozo move from the analyst’s side though 100%, absolutely brutal zero situational awareness moment

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

@Rebrand_As_Y Did my PM write this lol

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

please do not take investment advice from this person

Austin Lieberman

@LiebermanAustin

1 year

$MU with a very alarming quarter. - Adj. EPS -$1.91 ($1.03 miss) - Revenue $3.69B (down 53% Y/Y, $20M miss) - Inventory write downs of $1.43B Guidance Revenue $3.7B miss by $50M Adj EPS -$1.58, miss by $0.66 Bad sign for tech which has not priced in this type of slowdown imo

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

No way core Azure decelerating when GCP sequentially accelerating and all checks/surveys I’ve read this year say Azure gaining public cloud wallet share. Calling BS on this 8pts calculation methodology $MSFT

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

something very off about this dude

Andrew

@andrewmichaelio

1 year

Sam Altman reconfirms that he has ZERO equity in OpenAI

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

Tech right now basically just feels like a game of “how long can semis and hardware “AI enablers” keep sucking orders/revenue out of the GenAI value chain & raising guidance before end customers realize today’s LLMs are all useless bullshit and get stuck holding the empty bag?”

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

SF dudes really think “going for a walk” is a first date??? i thought this was a joke

Riley Read-Only

@HotForMoot

1 year

This guy I don’t wanna go on a date with has been bugging me for ages so I’m finally gonna go on a walk with him. But brain’s too tired to lead the conversation like I normally do so hope he has good topics ready cause I have no problem with silence

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

convinced Dan Ives is just making up sources and faking checks at this point

Kaushik

@BigBullCap

1 year

$MSFT PT Raised to $315 at Wedbush on positive Azure checks - Our recent checks in the field have been positive around overall cloud deal flow and momentum for Redmond in the March quarter despite Street fears with our analysis that Nadella & Co. should be able to at least hit

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

6 months

Kind of amazing to watch some larger fintwit accts live tweeting each $NVDA partnership announce as if any of them are remotely exclusive or material for fwd numbers. bit of a nice reminder that there is still edge derived from a deep inherent ability to filter signal from noise

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

GWRE is 100% going to get acquired in the next 12 months. unfortunately that’s not a bull thesis to a LO PM, but if i were retail i’d be buying hand over fist

MetaCritic Capital

@MetacriticCap

2 years

hmmmmmm Vertafore was acquired at 10x revenues and 20x EBITDA in 2020. $GWRE trades at 6x revenues and grows a bit faster than Vertafore. Has the same $5B price tag.

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

$GOOGL

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Amy after guiding below on everything and then getting absolutely lit up about AI capex for 45 straight minutes of analyst Q&A $MSFT

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

6 months

$GOOG bears on 3/1/24 $GOOG bears on 3/18/24

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

Spent way more time than usual on the phone today w/ various sellside analysts across both HW + infra SW coverage Hit me hard realizing just how many of them don’t actually personally believe many of the AI pipe dream narratives they knowingly help perpetuate for their coverage

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

6 months

In 10 years when market history books of GenAI Year 1 are written, we’re going to need an entire chapter to cover all these fucking $SMCI secondaries. Could ultimately be seen in hindsight as one of the most legendary studies in perfectly timed tactical capital stewardship ever

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

28 days

@stonkmetal $DSGX - Canadian logistics/supply chain software roll-up that grows ~HSD% organic in a normalized environment, masterful acquirers & Ed is an absolute beast

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

$GOOG such an obvious long here. everyone freaking out ab the demo when we know GOOG already has larger/better models than what they’re soft launching, and we know GPT-3 likely has similar accuracy issues. incremental margin hit won’t be that big, and Bing never gonna happen

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Lmao did they really publish this without a Y axis? Man

Dave Kellogg

@Kellblog

1 month

So, you're missing plan and ARR growth is down. Welcome to the club. It's hard times for most everyone out there in B2B SaaS land. So what do you do about it? 🧵

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

This is what’s currently happening with every enterprise GenAI app broadly btw

emily is in sf

@emilyinvc

2 months

in the DMs from a biglaw partner that "uses" harvey

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

The vibes around GCP are shifting, I can’t exactly articulate it right now but I know confidently that you will be hearing their name in the conversation a lot more over the next 18 months that you did over the last 18 $GOOGL

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

7 months

$GOOGL would be +4% right now if they didn’t insist on reporting only GAAP margins… would’ve been nearly 29% ex-restructuring charges vs street at 28.1%

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Would love someone to explain to me why NVDA up 7% on Amy talking down buyside capex numbers for fy25 last night? What exactly was bullish about that call for AI semis?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

@deepvaluepubs 2.5 x 10 = 25 25/4 = 6 + 1/4 = 6.25

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

@ReaperCapital Also thinking his followers will be stunned by $20k in credit card purchases in a year is gold 😂😂😂

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

people who think $ROKU and $NFLX are the best ways to play the long-term mega trend of CTV/OTT streaming miss the forest for the trees. $MGNI $TTD and even $PUBM will dramatically outperform both over the next 5 years

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

5 months

So perplexity announces it will pivot towards ad-driven monetization for its AI Search product (and so-called Google killer), then 2 days later FT reporting $GOOGL now considering embracing subscription-driven monetization for its own AI Search product? What mean?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Amazing that some people still don’t understand why Elon bought twitter or what gives it its uniquely monumental asset value (hint - it’s not derived by putting an EV/S multiple on ~$500mm of annual revenue)

Dare Obasanjo🐀

@Carnage4Life

1 month

Twitter’s US revenue has dropped -83% from $661M in Q2 of 2022 to $114M in Q2 of 2024. Every attempt Linda Yaccarino has come up with to generate revenue has been scuttled by impulsive behavior from Elon Musk. It’s the greatest destruction of value in tech this decade.

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

5 months

Rifling through this Rubrik S-1 right now, these guys spend >70% of revenue on S&M to grow… 5% y/y?? $RBRK

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

10 months

So $PAYC nukes its full year outlook + talks down next-year ests and $PCTY declines -10% on the perceived neg read across, then 2 days later PCTY reaffirms its prior FY24 revenue range (thus implying PAYC issues are mostly idio) and stock down another 7%?? someone explain like

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

@NiohBerg There are no civilians in Gaza

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

Trying to imagine the specific type of guy that wholeheartedly plans to go and vote for Joe B*den in 4 months and all I can picture is the biggest fucking loser nerd imaginable. Just candidly

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

In actuality the “book value” of any Chinese company is exactly zero brother

Natan

@nataninvesting

2 months

$BABA is reaching P/B of 1, very ridiculous for a tech company even if it's from China. Are you buying?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

5 months

some notable shifts in the SSE/SASE magic q's this week, $PANW $NET rising, $FTNT makes a respectable first entry into the Gartner-defined landscape for 2024

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

This is the point in the cycle where you should pay attention to who is last to realize the music is getting quieter fast

Beth Kindig

@Beth_Kindig

2 months

Last week, I spoke with Charles Payne on why the surge in AI stocks is an economy and not a bubble: real revenue, real growth, real profits. We’ve seen tech stocks go up rapidly in the market before, but we haven’t seen a mega cap stock grow nearly 300% on the top line, more

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

5 months

Admittedly not super close to this one but blaming a y/y decline on seasonality feels… definitionally incorrect??

The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

5 months

Enphase Energy with a double miss. CEO: "The -63.7% YoY decline in revenue for Q1 24 was the result of seasonality & a further softening in US demand, while we continued to reduce shipments to manage channel inventory" $ENPH: -10% AH

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

If you believe they can do $18 in CY24 the stock trades at <30x Lord give me the confidence of someone with a CFA charter citing an irrelevant trailing P/E number to mock others

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA

@GRDecter

1 year

Lord give me the confidence of an investor piling into NVDA at 226x trailing PE ahead of earnings being released.

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

thanks for playing, shorts!

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

fuck yourself

Lawrence H. Summers

@LHSummers

1 year

WE ARE AN UNDERTAXED NATION. Raising revenue needs to start with those most able to pay—the top 1 percent— but quite likely it cannot end there.

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

11 months

Mission: get a single question in at an $MU mgmt dinner without 5 pod dudes shouting over you Difficulty: impossible

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

Every Republican celebrating this absolute massacre should pause & think about what it means that in a week they’ll be campaigning against 56 year old Gavin Newsom, a guy who looks like he was born to play the president in movies, instead of this sad 81 year old dementia patient

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

11 days

@GuruFantasyWrld Damn this shit is so ass lol

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

It’s the opposite, actually Perfect institutional execution is ripe for AI disruption, but how exactly is an LLM going to take me to a box at MSG??

FinSkirt

@FinSkirt

4 months

@CasinoCapital @agnostoxxx Sales and Trading - I would *never* encourage anyone to go into sales now - it has been going the way of the Dodo with pay dropping, value add shrinking and AI ultimately disintermediating them completely. Trading is a specialized skill and yes better lifestyle.

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

@th3t0ur1st @milky_selena

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

hard to argue $PUBM $MGNI have any terminal value after this. similar Sept guides but 2 completely different sets of stated reasons makes it clear that in reality this is just the old SSP disintermediation thesis finally hitting the numbers. good luck to anyone still holding on!

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

@ComradeDoyIe he’s ideologically to Trump’s right on most issues (entitlements, many social issues). the “palatable in a general election” case is more about his composure and aura of data-driven competence relative to Trump (who I voted for), who often shoots first ask later. it’s not policy

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

On the payroll SaaS names $PAYC $PCTY $PYCR, do people strip out the float income dollars from net inc to calc P/E on just the core recurring? Would make sense to adjust P/E for this but not sure anyone actually does. For PCTY I calc float to be ~15% of EPS next yr, so material

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

wow did not see a Bard + $ADBE Firefly integrated partnership coming. strong validation of Firefly

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

5 months

Lmfao trademark Debbie incompetence $ADSK

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

wait Larry is dating a 33yo Ukrainian 10??? $ORCL to $250

TastefulLindy

@LindyTasteful

1 year

Larry Ellison dating a girl 47 years his junior rarely gets brought up in the "age-gap discourse"

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

By far the worst thing about watching $AAPL rip this week after announcing what basically everyone already expected them to do is imagining Dan Ives somewhere in a pink polkadot blazer or something with the most shiteating grin in history on his face

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

perfect correlation with ability to get pussy lol. coincidence i’m sure

auti এ

@yearncel

1 year

this makes sense

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

11 days

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

11 days

$SMCI HINDENBURG: WE HAVE TAKEN A SHORT POSITION IN SHARES OF SUPER MICRO

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

3 months

God I hate these charts all over my feed so much. Can’t you people read an income statement?

Evan

@StockMKTNewz

3 months

Nvidia $NVDA vs Apple $AAPL vs Microsoft $MSFT vs Google $GOOGL

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

@seandougfan $CRM $SAP $AZPN is an underrated one, not exactly SaaS but long term sub licenses with a consumption component. never heard of them losing a large customer in 3 years following it

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

@MRatable all about quality of sales org in this space. heard from a chicago-based headhunter that every saas biz in the area wants $PCTY reps more than anyone else. imagine $payc a similar story

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

22 days

@thickcompounder 100% agree, strong contender for biggest biz quality/mgmt quality mismatches anywhere in Software

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

7 months

$TSM with a nice little +3% post-close move on NVDA read. In the casino of trying to pick AI winners, the house of TSMC always wins!

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

6 months

Dude has spent 82 years on this earth and somehow still has the ideological and economic understanding of a 16 year old girl

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

6 months

UNITED STATES: Senator Bernie Sanders introduces legislation to establish a 'standard 32-hour workweek in America with no loss in pay'

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

This guy is a fucking idiot

Mark Cuban

@mcuban

2 months

His performance was awful. But so was Trump’s. Biden was feeble. Trump couldn’t directly answer a single question and lied with every response. The question is what features voters believe make a better POTUS : Feeble, Capable and Ethical vs Vigorous, Unethical and Incapable

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

wtf is $dbx spending all that r&d on 😂😂😂

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

Totally normal + not suspicious behavior from a totally normal + not suspicious company that totally isn’t a 5th column national security crisis with more influence over more Americans than literal Pravda did over Russians in 1980

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

4 months

BREAKING: Reuters reports that TikTok's owner ByteDance would prefer to 'shut down' its app in the US rather than sell it if all legal options are exhausted

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

when did Mike Wilson decide he wanted to start writing for Zero Hedge?

FXHedge

@Fxhedgers

2 years

MORGAN STANLEY SAYS STOCKS ARE IN A 'DEATH SPIRAL' SEES A 26% DROP IN COMING MONTHS

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

@ChairliftCap @modestproposal1 @BucknSF huge messaging blunder from Amy. can’t imagine how people signed off on those prepared remarks without realizing the phrasing was confusing as shit on the only number anyone cares about

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

Maybe a bit late here, but here we go anyway 2H24 longs/shorts: Longs: $ADBE $AMD $FTNT $GLOB $GWRE $NTNX $TER Shorts: $BRZE $CVLT $DELL $GDDY $NTAP $RBRK $TTGT

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

@MikeSchnier Imagine you’re a centibillionaire with enough wealth for 50 lifetimes, what would have more value to you? A very shaky IRR path that maybe touches 20% and nets you a few bil? Or the power to singlehandedly shift national political debates, influence policy & ideology, &

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

B2 is the only correct answer

memes.xlsx

@ExcelHumor

2 years

new worksheet - which cell do you start typing in first?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

$DELL now outperforming $NVDA ytd lol Fun times we live in

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

I’d be genuinely shocked if there is even a single person living in NYC on a $200k TC income that’s saving anywhere close to $3.5k a month with regularity. Hell I’d be shocked if there’s anyone in NYC at that income level saving anything meaningful at all consistently each month

☠️ Reaper ☠️ Capital ☠️

@ReaperCapital

4 months

Dog you make $200k, cool. You live in NYC, your rent is ....being very generous $5k a month. $200k income * 30% effective tax rate = $11,500 a month - Rent $5,000 - Living $3,000 $3500 / month absolute MAX Savings. $40k a year saved you stupid fuck, you're not "FAT FIREing"

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

me to Satya every single fucking EPS (had to bring this back in light of this absolute masterpiece of a print) $MSFT

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 months

zerohedge

@zerohedge

2 months

TRUMP QUESTIONS WHETHER US HAS DUTY TO DEFEND TAIWAN

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

@bucketshopcap It’s Ives - this is honestly pretty mild for him + best to just deny him the attention he so badly craves with this nonsense. Feel bad for the small handful of legitimately good analysts wedbush has whenever I see this crap from him

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

1Q24A payers -255k q/q vs -209k est 2Q24E payers guide -168k vs -91k est 1QA total payers -8.8% y/y vs -8.4% est 2QE total payers -9% y/y vs -7.6% est Every time $MTCH

FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

Tinder payers about to come in so bad lol $MTCH

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

would it be malpractice to take up my $GOOGL margin forecasts on the Ruth departure alone??

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

$CRM going from 0 to 52 is comedy

The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

1 year

More AI talk in earnings coming in Q2 23 earnings calls?

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 year

the very fact she thinks NVDA should be valued on a sales multiple tells you everything you need to know

Cathie Wood

@CathieDWood

1 year

Since 2014, @ARKInvest has believed that Nvidia saw the AI future before most other chip companies, and now we believe it will continue to power the AI age. At 25X expected revenue for this year, however, $NVDA is priced ahead of the curve.

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27

409

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

“Messi of AI” $PLTR -15% on dogshit guide as 90% of the retail base realizes they have no idea what the business does

Dan Ives

@DivesTech

4 months

Palantir delivered another robust performance led by US commercial growth of 40%. Boot camps are exploding; deal conversion is accelerating on the AIP vision. The key to the stock is AIP/US commercial and the Messi of AI is executing on the golden AI vision. $35 PT 🔥🏆🐂🍿

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1K

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

2 years

@LukeWolgram i think worst outcome from here is regulators kill the deal and shareholders are left holding the bag knowing mgmt effectively confirmed structural growth concerns at CC then failed the get the asset that could enable them to fend off growth pressures for at least next 3-4yrs

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4

FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

4 months

@emperoreaganite Biden worse come on

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1

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FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

25 days