Gavin Schmidt Profile Banner
Gavin Schmidt Profile
Gavin Schmidt

@ClimateOfGavin

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Climate scientist, occasional juggler, even more occasional author, curious about how the world works. Now @

New York, NY
Joined December 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
2 months
Yeah, I’m done here. Thanks for all of the good moments over the years (and there were some!). Thanks for the folks I wouldn’t have encountered elsewhere. But it’s turned into the Nazi bar and I literally am too old for that πŸ’©. Find me on Bluesky if you like.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Global average monthly temperature distributions since the 19th Century from GISTEMP #joyplot
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
Heat waves are red Cold spells are blue The first are more common now By a factor of two
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
The warm trends are red Cold ones should be blue The maps are nearly monochrome Because of CO2
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
TFW someone makes up something scary you supposedly implied and that tweet gets 10’s of thousands more likes than anything you actually said. 🀨
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
History of the continents: 540Ma to present. Data from
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
The Arctic warming is getting a lot of attention this week, but I keep seeing references to the warming being twice as fast as the global mean, and that's not right. It's more like 3 times the global mean.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
July 2016 was absolutely the hottest month since the instrumental records began.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 months
Now climate deniers are denying the existence of basic mathematics because it’s inconvenient for them. 🀣
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
"If you are a climate scientist please remember to never back down on your research. This issue is too important. We need people with courage in this fight."
@Dr_Caffrey
Maria Caffrey
6 years
My thoughts on the recent Reveal article:
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
How much of the world is warming faster than the global average? Pretty much everywhere people live.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
To be clear, the additional warming this century is almost all within the control of human choices related to emissions. No matter what happens, we are always going to be able to make more climate friendly choices. Neither we, nor the ecosystem, are β€˜doomed’ to > 3Β°C warming.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
The parallels between climate and covid-19 contrarians...
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
Since this comes up a lot, a quick run though of the testable, falsifiable, science that supports a human cause of recent trends in global mean temperature.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
IS YOUR CHILD TEXTING ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE? WTF = what's the forcing? IMO = ice-margin oceanography LOL = land-ocean linkages STFU = sensitivity to factors underlying FYI = forgo yellow ice LMAO = let's model atmosphere-ocean SMH = surface mean humidity JFC = just fix climate
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
Roses are infrared Ultraviolets are blue Why is climate changing? Because of CO2.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
Guys, for the love of everything holy, please, please, have somebody on who knows what the heck a climate model is!!! @joerogan
@thebadstats
bad_stats πŸ•œπŸ’΅πŸ–¨οΈπŸ•£
3 years
Holy moly. I don't think I can do this. First words out of Peterson's mouth in the Joe Rogan interview are complete self parody. I can't even dunk on it.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
#Elni Γ±o is trending for obvious reasons, but let me inject a note of caution...
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
This tweet is just to let normal people know that even climate scientists are having an impossible time trying to work out what is going on at #COP26 and what of any of it will matter.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
The potentially record-shattering extreme heat weather forecasts for the Pacific NW are pretty shocking, but some folks keep getting the climate change connection wrong.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
The most impressive things about @GretaThunberg are her clarity and authenticity. Precisely why the insincere purveyors of confusion like Lomborg see her as a threat.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
This probably doesn’t need to be said, but planning for low probability, high impact, worst case scenarios is looking pretty smart right now.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
"I'm a climate scientist" - boring - academic - are we all doomed? "I read the entrails of the planet" - mysterious - ominous - maybe you should wash your hands?
@KevinMKruse
Kevin M. Kruse
5 years
"I'm a historian" - boring - academic - is this going to be on the test? "I am a master of the past" - mysterious - ominous - maybe you can time-travel
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
We’ll be seeing a lot more β€˜it’s cold where I am, global warming is bogus’ in the coming days and months (and years and decades). Pretty much in line with how much it’s warming…
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Just for fun calc: iceberg will add 0.1mm to sea level as it melts because fresh (no salt). It wld have been 2.8mm if not already floating.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
I have thoughts about scientists β€˜debating’ contrarians, conspiracists and assorted bad faith actors (or authors). For reference, I speak w/25 years experience of being a β€˜public’ climate scientist…
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
@NateSilver538 Lots of folks can’t get vaccinated (immune compromised, severe allergies, under-16 yr olds etc.). They still deserve protection.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
Don't take your eye off the ball... It's the long term trends that matter.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
Please, save us from retired physicists who think they’re smarter and wiser than everyone in climate science because they worked out an energy balance model four decades ago... πŸ™„
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
This is complete nonsense. People are called deniers when they continually ignore valid scientific research in favor of hand waving and confirmation bias - nuance and uncertainty have nothing to do with it, regardless of what they tell themselves.
@curryja
Judith Curry
5 years
@KenCaldeira @hsaunders6 In the climate arena, people who express nuance and uncertainty are called 'deniers'
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
This is what β€˜debate’ with pathological liars looks like. There is literally nothing they won’t claim & people on the side of reality are supposed to defend themselves from increasingly bizarre claims. Yet some people insist that these folks are acting in good faith 🀣
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
Doing great work on high profile climate reports: Impressive Stepping up to explain & educate: Vital Getting personally attacked for no other reason than their public outreach: Appalling (tho not unexpected) Carrying on with the #scicomm regardless: Remarkable Kudos to @KHayhoe
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
#10YearChallenge annual temperature anomaly yr prior to 2009 and yr prior to 2019.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
There are some things we should be scared of every day.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly via @forbes
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
A quick 🧡 on Lomborg etc. I was once asked by someone prominent in the tech/internet area whether there was anything to the his critiques of climate change mitigation. I said no, but I could tell he really wanted me to say yes. Lomborg's shtick is definitely appealing. But why?
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
One of the ironies of a successful campaign to avoid worst case scenarios is always that the people who fought every effort will claim afterwards that there was never any need for any action. That is both predictable and false. But it will be a small price to pay.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
Hilarious screw up by @DavidRoseUK and #FailOnSunday 1st picture is 'evidence' of misconduct, 2nd shows diff when baselines are correct.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
I made two graphics to deal with the more foolish claims being made with respect to CO2. 1) Human activities are responsible for at least 1/3rd of atmospheric CO2 (and growing):
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
Above the fold this morning.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
I'm not sure what Dawkins thinks he's doing here (I have a pretty good idea), but a) reductive approaches to climate are bottom-up (not top down), b) causes & impacts of, & responses to, climate change all have sociological components that intersect w/feminist concerns…
@RichardDawkins
Richard Dawkins
6 years
Just met somebody who works on a feminist approach to climatology, as opposed to a top-down reductive approach.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Amount of energy needed to melt berg is ~330000000000000000000 joules. If it takes 10 yrs, it'll only take 0.2% of annual energy imbalance.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
It's update day for the comparison of climate model projections to observations! Reference page:
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
this enough global warming for you?
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
This story is... unconvincing. First off it’s just two scientists (no publication), one of whom has made similar (unsupported) claims before & ignores the context that permafrost & methane have been degrading in this region since it was inundated in the early Holocene.
@guardianeco
Guardian Environment
4 years
'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
I can't help myself, climate deniers are too dumb. part 374: The response to @billmckibben 's tweet about sea ice anomalies in Antarctica is whatever the opposite of a chef's kiss is. [The waiter's fart?]
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
Sneak peak for how 2019 is shaping up compared to climate model projections.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
No surprise here, planetary warming does not care about the election. Now including October data.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
These people are so predictable with their nonsense, and yet I can't quite get over how disappointing it is that they can't see science as something deeply interesting and important...
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
I see that there is some mo[o]re BS going around. Maybe I can help edit that.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
10 months
With the huge September data in, we can confirm that we expect 2023 to be the warmest year in the record (99% probability).
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
β€œPeterson has managed to absorb the first part of George Box’s famous dictum that β€˜all models are wrong’ but appears to have not worked out the second part β€˜but some are useful’”
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
2 years
Dreamt that I quit academia to open a paleoclimate-themed bar called β€˜Cene. Cocktails like the: KT impact (you’ll only want to have one!), the PETM (hot!), the Last Glacial and Snowball Earth (made with liquid N2). The Anthro would have extra CO2.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
Clearly there’s a market for this stuff, but it’s just exaggerated hyperbole. Negative effects != global crop failure Increased risk != most humans dead 6Β°C != uninhabitable Yes, increasing climate change multiplies risks & dangers, but how is this helpful? Timelines wrong too
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@ClimateBen
Ben See
3 years
Remember: 1. Global crop failures by 2Β°C. 2. Most humans dead by 4Β°C. 3. Earth uninhabitable by 6Β°C. 4. We risk 2Β°C by 2035. 5. We risk 4Β°C by 2065. 6. We risk 6Β°C by 2095. One tweet is worth a million newspaper front pages.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
11 months
Hahahahaha… climate deniers now throwing the UAH MSU record under the bus in favor of totally made up nonsense. It was only ever a question of time…
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
Great new resource for Earth history folks. Chris Scotese and Nicky Wright's PaleoDEMs (1x1 resolution, 0 to 540 Ma) are now online Example for the end Cretaceous (w/modern outlines for comparison):
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Gavin Schmidt
1 year
It seems obvious to me that one can discuss, debate, and debunk ideas without it being done on a stage with a time limit and no fact checking? Do people really think that trial by combat is the best way to ascertain truth?
@nytopinion
New York Times Opinion
1 year
If you don’t think R.F.K. Jr. should be publicly debated, says @DouthatNYT , β€œyou need some other theory of how the curious can be persuaded away from his ideas.”
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Gavin Schmidt
6 years
This is a thing that is possible.
@thehill
The Hill
6 years
NASA chief says he changed mind about climate change because he "read a lot", talked to experts
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Claims of a substantial gap between model projections and observed temperatures are not true (2017 update edition).
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
Models are how you encapsulate theories and test against observations. No models? Then no predictions and no science.
@ScottAdamsSays
Scott Adams
6 years
@mikemcgibney You're talking about the models. Which are not science. You are correct that Republicans disagree on the non-science parts.
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Gavin Schmidt
3 years
@ClimateBen Might I suggest that you present your conclusions as your conclusions, and refrain from putting words into other people's mouths? The 'quotes' you took were from a blog interview, not a peer reviewed paper.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
For @marcorubio @jaketapper and anyone else, it’s a good thing that scientists have indeed already looked at how much recent trends in climate are due to human activity. [narrator: it was all of it]
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 months
Apparently there are enforceable limits on what people can say about climate scientists in public. Good to know.
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Gavin Schmidt
5 years
This is legitimately nuts. That some political parties take anti-science stands cannot be allowed to dictate limits on discussions of science.
@simondonner
Simon Donner
5 years
Saying climate change is real could be seen as partisan activity during election campaign, Elections Canada warns
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Gavin Schmidt
2 years
Read this thread. Then ponder the fact that I was also quoted in the same article, but I did not receive a single comment. 🧐
@JacquelynGill
Dr. Jacquelyn Gill
2 years
Last week, I was quoted in an AP article interviewing scientists who are pushing back on the emerging narrative that there's nothing we can do about climate change -- that we're doomed, no matter what. Since then, I've gotten phone calls, emails, and actual mail in response.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
It's been quite warm... any way you look at it.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
If someone says they don’t know precisely how much human activity is contributing to climate change, ask them what level of precision they are aiming for and which actual decisions are dependent on that.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
2 years
While most people have heard of climate change, general understanding of the climate system as a whole is poor. So perhaps a thread for relevant factoids that people might find interesting is worthwhile? I'll start off with a few and add more later... #ClimateFacts
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Hey @nytimes , where is the "intellectually depth", "honesty" or "bravery" in setting up transparently thin strawmen to rail against?
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
We see this with all of the anti-science bad faith arguments. Regardless of how often people have pointed out how silly it is, or that it makes no logical sense, or that there would be no motive to doing something like that, the smugs will continue to make it.
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Gavin Schmidt
2 years
This is flat out πŸ’© from Epstein. Misreading of vague quotes instead of actually looking at the scientific papers that have all the information. Turns out that Hansen (et al!)'s projections bracketed what happened. Mini 🧡...
@AlexEpstein
Alex Epstein
2 years
NYT in 1986: "Average global temperatures would rise by 1/2 - 1 Β°F from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are unchanged, according to Dr. Hansen’s findings. Dr. Hansen said the global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade." #Catastrophizing
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
With Nov GISTEMP anomalies posted, 2019 is #2 YTD, and this will be 99.9% likely to be the ranking for the full year. - 5th year clearly > 1Β°C above late 19th C - closes out warmest decade in record
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 months
Please stop doing this. The 1.5ΒΊC/2ΒΊC levels from the Paris Agreements are for the global mean temperature changes - not northern hemisphere land (which warms faster than the ocean or the southern hemisphere).
@ProfBillMcGuire
Bill McGuire
3 months
"In an area including the whole of Europe, most of North America and Asia the average temperature last summer was 2.07C hotter than between 1850 and 1900" Forget 1.5C or 2C. We are already beyond. Catastrophic news. No two ways about it.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
3 years
What it means for the Pacific NW is that there will be a very high attribution to climate change for the upcoming event and the exact numbers will depend on how hot it really gets. And the hotter it gets, the larger the attribution will be. Regardless of cause though, stay safe!
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
As I've predicted since Jun, 2018 is going to come in as 4th warmest year in the modern record and 4th year in a row more that 1ΒΊC above late 19th Century in GISTEMP.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
A reminder that politicization generally follows what political leaders decide to politicize, not how well or poorly scientists communicate the underlying facts.
@LSEPublicPolicy
LSE School of Public Policy
4 years
😷 Only a tiny minority of the British public are very unwilling to wear a mask, and there's little evidence of a partisan divide - unlike in the US, say @sarahobolt and @soccerquant #LSEThinks πŸ‘‡
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Claim of a substantial gap between model projections for global temperature & observations is not true (updated with 2017 estimate):
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
4 years
In the horse-race for the warmest year, 2020 is ahead of 2016 by a nose, but it's going to be a photo-finish. Either way, the margin is likely to be within the uncertainty of our ability to estimate the true real world anomaly.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
8 years
#thanksNASA for the satellite monitoring of clouds, ozone, temperature, energy fluxes, rain etc.
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Gavin Schmidt
4 years
"The IPCC model"
@paulg
Paul Graham
4 years
What phrase signals that the person using it doesn't understand your field? Example: "Computer error."
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Gavin Schmidt
5 months
Nothing illustrates the vacuity of what passes for climate scepticism in the UK than Matt Ridley retweeting Toby Young who publishes a piece by Chris Morrison based on total bollocks.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
5 years
My god these people are stupid.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
We should dedicate February as #findaclimatescapegoat month as yet again some political scientists try to find ways to blame climate scientists for the lack of progress in CO2 emission reductions, instead of, say, politics.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
2 years
The warm trends are red Cold ones should be blue The maps are nearly monochrome Because of CO2 (updated #climatevalentine )
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
New page @RealClimate for keeping track of comparisons btw climate model projections & observations.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
9 months
I know this seems like it’s exciting news, but really folks, we do not know the precise difference between yesterday’s global mean temperature and the pre-industrial to 3 sig figs or to the nearest 0.01Β°C.
@CopernicusECMWF
Copernicus ECMWF
9 months
🌑️  ERA5 data from @CopernicusECMWF indicates that 17 November was the first day that the global temperature exceeded 2°C above pre-industrial levels, reaching 2.07°C above the 1850-1900 average and the provisional ERA5 value for 18 November is 2.06°C.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
2 years
@DevanshiDubey07
Devanshi Dubey. #savesoil
2 years
Carbon and Nitrogen are two main components of #soil . Both of them can do wonders for all living microorganisms which automatically increase the quantity of soil. #SaveSoil #SaveSoilMovement
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
7 years
Dangers that can be avoided by not saying their name: 1) Beetlejuice 2) Candyman. Climate change? Not so much.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
People who dismiss these concerns (read the comments), & those of the humanities and sociology more generally, are simply signaling that their version of the culture wars is more important than actually dealing with these problems. We don't really have time for that any more.
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
6 years
Update day for model-observation comparison plots. @RealClimate
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@ClimateOfGavin
Gavin Schmidt
1 year
Why do Willie Soon's correlations fail as soon as there is new data available?
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