Pikagi
The Long View Profile Banner
The Long View Profile
The Long View

@HayekAndKeynes

137,466
Followers
645
Following
9,279
Media
37,299
Statuses

Institutional Investor. Named a top finance account by Business Insider. See highlights tab for longer term macro views.

Joined December 2014
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
Pinned Tweet
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 months
If you’re wondering why the economy has been so resilient take a look at this thread and let me know what you think … 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 months
The stimmy keeps on coming 🍾 Inflation adjustments to social security and increases in retiree healthcare (+150bn) completely offset expiring income tax credits (-$150bn)… Next year those two categories will rise by another $200bn yet again (~1% of GDP) with no real offset.
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
39
154
662
51
34
211
Last Seen Profiles
Gather.Blockchain (New Hydro)

@Gather_Network

ピエール中野 凛として時雨 ピヤホン監修

@Pinakano

Glen Peters

@Peters_Glen

Zbyněk M. Duda

@ZbynekMDuda

高樹リオ@7/27新宿ロフト8/24博多キッド・ロック

@RioHip

La Gazzetta del 5G

@Gazzetta5G

rumi.

@rumi_music666

sahabatpelangi

@sahabatpelangi4

mamas

@adorasrighthand

modo tir

@_ChloeSmb

Bertrand Pcs

@BertrandPc74218

Marco Capisani

@MCapisani

blank

@blank_boyo

Anastasia Offret

@AnastasiOffr

MachinePix

@MachinePix

Raja Binor Stw

@BinorRaja

โลกแห่งความลับ

@gay011101

R.

@quinnhrj

Lil G 🔜 Furrydelphia 😺✨

@NGeohp

ahodesuyan

@ahodesuyan1

indrit ⋰Ẍ⋱

@albaniaindrit1

Toge_Hunter

@Penikmat_T0G3

Andrew Hanback

@HanbackAndrew

My. Pitlok

@MyPitlok

Qusai ⋰Ẍ⋱

@Tscherkessien

Carlos_Fella

@CarlosCristofa

JustEnoughTry

@JustEnoughTry

Wild Wings

@wildwings007

Alfonso_Henriquez

@AlfonsoHenriq20

Bizitegi

@Bizitegi_org

rêveur fou

@ttestclair

mert25/selin24

@mertistnblu

Boba Fella (Le Bonk edition)

@FlogginFella

KarpCzarny

@MikolajNowak

Claycore

@GeraldGeralein

Charlie 😵‍💫🐁

@PunyPunyMouse

@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Tech layoffs keep stacking up
Tweet media one
172
1K
5K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Jesus. 30y mortgages are now above 6%
255
373
4K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Some of these individual stock moves are stunning Netflix from $700 to $175 in just a few months
126
313
4K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 months
The fact that bonds are selling off while gold just moved 15% higher is telling you absolutely everything you need to know about macro right now
109
463
4K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Confirmed. Banning Zerohedge was the top
46
456
3K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 months
New tweets by @TheRoaringKitty are fascinating from a legal perspective. Literally no words. Pure memes. SEC can’t do anything with that in court. Dude is just pumping like a wizard.
38
239
4K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Good afternoon from Guatemala
Tweet media one
136
87
3K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
One of these is wrong Housing Prices + 19% Rent +17% CPI for housing (OER) +4.5%
69
280
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
What the hell is going on? - Weapons are now ESG - Calling for assassination is normalized - Asset forfeiture is social justice
126
446
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Wonder how Japan manages to have basically no homeless people, no giant rats, no drunks, no drug addicts, no litter, no weed clouds, one blasting loud music.
647
222
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
We are short everything - not enough homes - not enough cars - not enough meat - hardly any inventory - not enough workers We didn’t do anything for a year & then tossed around 20% of GDP for fun money. We have a lot of paper & not a lot of stuff. Gonna be hot for a while
55
303
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
It’s not the bottom when the biggest pumpers keep telling you to buy the dip. The bottom is when they are too embarrassed to open their mouths
58
190
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Reckless foreign policy is a great distraction from failed domestic policy
39
423
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
No new houses under $200k
Tweet media one
92
379
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
It’s ironic an app called Robinhood takes money from the poor and gives it to Ken Griffin
32
228
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Bond market just broke
Tweet media one
65
376
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
7 months
Huge list of macro outlooks J.P. Morgan J.P. Morgan Private Bank Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Asset Management Morgan Stanley Bank of America
47
420
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
5 years
Renaissance technologies returns.... ~40% net after 5/44 fees.
Tweet media one
69
342
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
“Essential services” seems like a big business loophole Lowe’s? Open Walmart? Open Target? Open Family Dollar? Open Every small business? Closed Seems strange to bless hundreds shopping at Lowe’s while banning the local plant nursery who rarely has more than 1 customer at once
66
281
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Oil at $135 Somebody got wrecked
76
114
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Love when crypto guys refer to government issued currency as “fiat” as if their made up assets are somehow more real and durable
147
90
2K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
5 years
More people live inside this circle than outside of it
Tweet media one
39
514
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Trillions of stimulus... $1.5T in Repo $1.1T Commercial paper relief $1T in US fiscal stimulus $750B QE from ECB $600B QE from the Fed $600B bank loan guarantee (France/UK) $500B in loans (Germany) $300B in Japanese stimulus (proposed) $100B in fiscal stimulus across Europe
85
513
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Poor people are really gonna pay for this Oil up, wheat limit up, European power prices spike, and now Russia to stop exporting fertilizer.
71
206
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Covid has killed more retail locations than people 🔥 😐
41
171
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Tim Cook, the Apple CEO told Musk “fuck you” and hung up
Tweet media one
43
100
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Biden seems to think he can fight an inflation problem caused by too much stimulus with more spending
78
105
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
This was a year’s worth of crisis in a week Massive oil move, OPEC disaster Treasury rally & Fixed income RV blowout Coronavirus expansion Iran strikes Record spread widening Stock bond correlation spike 10% 1 day move in equities $1.5T in new repo from the Fed VIX hits 75
45
295
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Lol, is this a joke?
Tweet media one
126
84
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
So many idiots....
Tweet media one
@elonmusk
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
4 years
Use Signal
14K
38K
320K
49
156
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Every 1% hike to short rates costs the Treasury Department $150 billion a year in interest payments, which amounts to 4% of the total 2021 federal budget
64
210
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Google is now a $2Tn company, or roughly worth 10% of US GDP
80
122
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Why on earth would the Fed hike aggressively and push us into a recession to undo all the fiscal stimulus DC rolled out to prevent a nasty one during COVID?
151
90
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Bitcoin is a hell of a drug
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
40
71
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Still the best OPEC quote of all time
Tweet media one
33
140
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
The left doesn’t realize many people find their cultural conformity as oppressive and authoritarian as they see Trump. That their casual disdain for rural Americans is as ugly as the racism and prejudice they continually profess to fight.
84
130
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
This is basically the Cuban Missile crisis with shitty leaders
47
86
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
When this is over, we will have given away trillions, which will mostly be spent on short term consumables while infrastructure still remains in decay (despite arguing over $800B for a decade). As with war, future generations will wonder how we squandered so much, so quickly.
38
184
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
The path to herd immunity
@evanmcmurry
Evan McMurry
@evanmcmurry
4 years
Massive protest in Philly.
1K
7K
27K
44
150
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Tweet media one
15
134
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Where are all the people at?
Tweet media one
31
211
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Sweden flattened the curve.... everyone else flattened their economy and delayed the inevitable
Tweet media one
74
337
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
We are all marionettes manipulated by memes and media
25
249
1K
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Nobody trusts Chinese economic data but everybody is now relying on their healthcare data... the medical field is going to learn this the hard way, the same way the finance community has had to
39
230
967
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Whispers are Melvin is down 70%
70
86
976
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
It would be a lot easier to take the Ukrainian outrage more seriously if people had shown some compassion in Libya, Iraq, Syria, or Yemen.
100
116
979
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
U.S. credit card debt fell by $100B from February to June
61
167
937
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Infrastructure spending in China
Tweet media one
62
108
925
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
They are pulling out the same playbook they used on Venezuela & Iran to force regime change in Russia. Turn off access to our financial system & basic trade.Only problem is that it didn’t change leadership - it just wrecked locals & propped up global oil prices.
75
113
910
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
This isn’t stimulus. It’s a big plug for the financial system and a little morsel for citizens to patch over what’s happening. If this lasts longer than a few weeks the money is wasted. There are 128m households in America. You could give all of them $10,000 for $1.3 Trillion
34
220
894
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Religion has died and has been reborn as Bitcoin, CrossFit, being anti-racist, being vegan, saving the climate. People want to believe. I like the old version better (minus the anti-science part)
76
100
915
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
1 month
China just sold a 50y bond at 2.5% yield
74
79
912
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Record low oil discoveries
Tweet media one
58
136
878
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
It appears the people who need to take precautions are doing so...
Tweet media one
119
179
861
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
5 years
Six asset managers control 92% of all ETF assets. The others—all 118 of them—are fighting over 8% of the assets. The top two, BlackRock and Vanguard, manage two out of every three ETF dollars in the U.S.
35
308
863
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 years
Oh shit. Just got the pot stock text from mom
Tweet media one
71
102
861
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Rate hikes kill zombies
Tweet media one
32
123
875
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Last year Hertz was a bankrupt meme stock…. today it’s pushing Tesla to new highs and pulling the whole market with it
35
89
855
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
A century ago, the average man in the US weighed around 155 lbs. Today, he weighs about 195 lbs.
152
72
849
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
Jesus. Diesel is $6 That will pump the brakes on things
113
62
824
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Still paid more taxes than Amazon 😂
30
85
802
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
7 years
China's baby boom is over. India is just starting starting to hit its demographic sweet spot.
30
784
817
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
If you look historically we haven’t cut our reliance on any energy source, we have just added new sources as we’ve grown. Yes the relative percentage falls, but not the level of consumption. Those expecting oil to disappear are going against the entire history of energy.
Tweet media one
34
189
832
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
WHO THE FUCK IS BUYING ALL THESE OPTIONS!?!
142
50
778
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
$290 million every day for 7,300 days. That’s how much money America spent on 20 years of war and nation-building in Afghanistan.
68
146
790
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
5 years
Just had dinner with my friend. He told me about his new 5500 sqft house and how climate change is the most important global issue. I told him he had a nice SUV too and literally laughed in his face.
39
70
777
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 years
Personal finance is simple -Don’t screw up your biggest financial commitments (college/housing/autos/marriage) - Creatively minimize your largest expenses (housing/transport/food/medical care). Nothing else really matters as long as you’re not careless -Save save save & invest
24
154
789
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
For markets, coronavirus is mostly over. There will be no more shut downs. Data doesn't support them & they were bad policy to begin with. Normalization will happen slowly, then all at once. Inventories are drained too. 2021 will be roaring as long as policy doesn't mess it up
62
130
775
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
The next two weeks will likely hold a few things 1) very bad economic data 2) a ridiculous amount of policy measures 3) some amazing examples of Americans coming together
46
90
787
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
28 days
Basically a macro genius
Tweet media one
25
85
809
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
7 years
Bitcoin compared to other bubbles. There is only one which surpasses it: the Dutch tulip mania. The chart is from a newsletter from my long time friends at Convoy investments. If you'd like to subscribe, email them at ir @convoyinvestments .com
Tweet media one
101
657
767
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 years
National debt is just the tip of the iceberg. Unfunded liabilities such as Medicare, Social security, and pensions dwarf this amount by a factor of 10.
Tweet media one
55
367
762
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 years
Stop saying fucking “algos.” At least have the decency to pick one segment of the market to blame: CTAs, delta hedging, vol controlled annuities, etc. There are no magic machines that make the market do the opposite of what you think rational people should do.
42
131
776
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
5 years
What else do you need to see? -Inverted yield curve -Fed is about to cut rates -layoffs are ticking up -PMIs are rolling over -commodities in the trash -Residential investment is negative -Auto sales are negative -Capex/exports rolling over
74
218
767
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
China's Red Tide... slowly taking over the world
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
44
267
729
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.” -Mark Twain
8
138
760
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
TikTok is now getting more screen time than Facebook in the US.
Tweet media one
44
178
756
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Someone is definitely going to blow up tomorrow
45
60
746
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
These fuckers let ISIS recruit on here, people can share porn which kids can see, videos of beheading.... and their priorities are to silence the president of the United States, a group of mostly peaceful protestors and anything incriminating about Hunter Biden?
Tweet media one
66
159
735
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Dude pulled a gun on the kid before he was blasted
136
165
698
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
I have a confession to make. For my entire life I‘ve gotten a strange pleasure out of deeply irritating the self righteous. I’ve always felt the world was far too nuanced to have particularly strong opinions and I enjoy poking holes in their logic or emotional reasoning.
57
50
745
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Nothing like taking a stand against slavery 150 years after it’s over
37
47
747
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Imagine the tech bubble But with social media Zero commissions iPhone trading and free money
32
87
748
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Everything is getting cancelled. Spoke with my friend in Guatemala who’s a photographer. Six weddings he was set to cover have been nixed. No sports. No concerts. No classes. No new films. Travel down massively. This is going to be incredibly acute in ways we don’t even realize.
54
106
723
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
The problem with public assistance in America is that citizens get more irritated about $1000 going to their neighbor than they do a $10,000,000 handout to some person in power they don't know.
35
126
737
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
We could have avoided all this nonsense... what a giant waste of time and money.
Tweet media one
58
171
725
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
How stupid are our leaders? Let’s just dwell on the fact they shut down our economy before they told people to wear masks.
48
121
716
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
NYPD’s budget is bigger than the entire Ukraine military budget
43
81
726
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
You can’t make this shit up. Comic book produced by the NY Fed outlines exactly what’s going on today I also have no idea how this made it into my library 😂
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
Tweet media three
Tweet media four
25
119
728
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Biden did what Trump could not. He made coal great again
Tweet media one
20
99
725
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
6 years
Keep your eyes on China. If they fall, they’re bringing the world down with them. They’ve been roughly 30% of global growth & 50% of investment in recent years. Manufacturing has been waning all year, driven by trade sentiment & tightening. Data is getting worse despite easing.
34
220
703
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Gold is down 3.5% Silver is down 17% Oil if down 12% EAFE is down 10% SPX is down 9.5% AND CASH IS TRASH
45
110
708
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Interestingly, gold is down today This also affirms my view Bitcoin is mostly about speculation, which easy money (stimmy) facilitates. It’s a cult asset, like Tesla... not a store of wealth like gold. People don’t want to preserve purchasing power, they want to get rich quick.
76
63
717
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Good parents are responsible for so much inequality
27
52
695
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Every fucking day the last two weeks
10
117
707
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
California
Tweet media one
17
67
705
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
3 years
Happy anniversary to Joe Biden! 🎂 Key accomplishments -gave away a few trillion dollars -brought back coal from the dead -made inflation great again -admitted defeat against COVID
47
69
695
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
2 years
I still don’t understand why now, when the pandemic is finally over, they feel the need to push vaccine mandates (which don’t stop the spread) and finally mail out test kits to people at home? This would have made sense a year and two years ago, respectively. It’s a tragic comedy
59
38
706
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
4 years
Stocks are now only down about 10% from last spring when we thought a trade war was our biggest fear. No real earnings since then either. Not much of a selloff given the shock we’re seeing. Testament to the faith markets place in the Fed & policy makers’ commitment to stimulate
40
96
678
@HayekAndKeynes
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
5 years
When techies do extreme couponing
Tweet media one
14
191
698