Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort Twitter profile

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Just Another Pod Guy

2 years

You have to scrap historical and business cycle mental models when you have an entity (Putin) with a big stick (nukes/supply disruption) incentivized to inflict max pain. This isn’t a black swan it’s fucking war.

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Last Seen Profiles

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

9 months

I would sacrifice my left nutsack to be a fly on the wall in the Pershing Sqr war room over the last 72hrs

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

If you cover TMT binge watching all his episodes (Zuck, Ilya, Demis etc) will get you 10x further re understanding path function of AI over next few years vs anything sellside has written:

Dwarkesh Patel

Deeply researched interviews

www.youtube.com

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

Now might be a good time to resurface this nugget from META’s 10k last week re benefit from TEMU/Tok spending like drunken sailors before user retention turned negative late last year. Skeptical this repeats in ‘24:

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

@Restructuring__ Think he’s better off picking ten higher profile large (but not mega) cap tech/HC names that he follows privately with his own models built and ready to pitch deeply with two pager writeup when it’s time to recruit. Less compliance risk same impact at interview point.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

I know we dunk on him a lot, but every day that goes by Dalio’s Jan 2021 prediction that half the country won’t accept the outcome of the ‘24 elections and states will ignore federal seems increasingly prescient and it scares the shit out of me

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@BillAckman @Ukraine Making this statement without at least acknowledging the potential nuclear escalation is dangerous and unhelpful.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@buccocapital 😅😘

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

I have never felt so inferior in my entire life…

Siqi Chen

@blader

7 months

this is the ceo of cognition 14 years ago the idea that 10x/100x engineers don’t exist is such a cope

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@Larryjamieson_ 11. Save all receipts from 2am excursion to local strip club after above strategy fails 🫡

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@NipseyHoussle Jerome after watching this

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@esotericgrifter @p8stie Brazil for both 🤝

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@fchollet What percentage of existing engineers would you say are “architecting the mental model” and how many are mindlessly implementing/maintaining? And within that small % that are architecting… what if the top decile had 100x capacity… how deflationary is that for the other 90%

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

For the folks on here still on selllside (or younger) who haven’t yet landed a buyside seat… would highly recommended reading his daily blasts while it’s still free. Closest mirror to what my daily research intake looks like by far without paying brokers.

TMT Breakout

@heartbreakout

1 year

Here's my pitch why you should sub to TMT Breakout (link in bio): I have spent over 20 years investing in technology stocks – close to 15 of those years on the buy-side, including stints as a Tech PM running 9 figures at a multi-manager hedge fund and as a Tech Media Telecom

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@MercurialCharts @Oilfield_Rando What if I told you the US actually subsidizes the rest of the world pharma R&D… chicken and the egg freeloader problem. Marginal cost to export is low but development and risk taking cost is high. Not to say much isn’t broken but definitely a primary factor worth understanding.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@MultifamilyMad Banana Stand Operator, there's always money in the banana stand

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

The era of grownups is upon us

Compound248 💰

@compound248

6 months

$GOOG just nuked 28 employees involved in the sit-in protests, stating clearly it will fire future disrupters: “Their behavior was unacceptable, extremely disruptive, and made co-workers feel threatened.” “If you’re…tempted to think we’re going to overlook conduct that

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

11 months

A) don’t think it’s a coincidence that they picked someone who sold his last co to AMZN and reported directly to Jassy in case Satya pulls out B) don’t it’s coincidence that Kyle Vogt who cofounded Twitch w/ Emmet resigned today… likely will raid Cruise for talent replacement

Emily Chang

@emilychangtv

11 months

The OpenAI board has hired Emmett Shear as CEO. He is the former CEO of Twitch. My understanding is that Sam is in shock.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

TEMU launched in the U.S. in late 2022 and spent $3b in the U.S. in 2023 on marketing. Vast majority likely goes to META with small amount presumably to SNAP/YouTube as Tok directly competing for shoppers via Tok shop which launched in September.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@DoombergT @TwainsMustache Assimilation is one of our greatest strengths vs other developed economies and severely under-appreciated in our world of demographic decline

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@JeffWeniger Keep an eye on Airbnb rates/volume for a source of forced inventory to kickstart a negative price spiral

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

10 months

Guys literally only want one thing…

Mitt Romney

@MittRomney

10 months

From our family to yours, Merry Christmas!

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

never felt more comfortable holding entire PA in short-dated T-bills and Gold. Cash is not trash and sometimes choosing not to play is the right move… particularly for those of us who prof run money and are inherently beta exposed career-wise. Tail-risks are fattening.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@HighyieldHarry @GerberKawasaki

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

9 months

@SilvermanJacob

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

10 months

@TheLAPurchaser We’re PMs - Our largest consumer long is based on a positive anecdote our wife briefly mentioned in direct contrast to our analysts channel checks.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

10 months

Props to Ackman for going this hard even tho his wife works at MIT and likely will face internal pushback 🫡

Bill Ackman

@BillAckman

10 months

The world will be able to judge the relative quality of the governance at @Harvard , @Penn , and @MIT by the comparative speed by which their boards fire their respective presidents.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

In other words the U.S. ad market is really growing MSD to HSD at best this year barring recession on an organic basis and when you normalize for FX tailwinds last year for euro customer spend after dollar weakened.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

4 months

I’m begging y’all to stop doing podcasts intra-q if there’s even a sliver of a chance you’ll miss

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

Will smoke a pack tonight in his honor 🫡

Simons Foundation

@SimonsFdn

5 months

It is with great sadness that the Simons Foundation announces the death of its co-founder and chair emeritus, James Harris Simons. Jim was an award-winning mathematician, a legendary investor and a generous philanthropist.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

AI likely good enough for facial rec from just features exposed - if he wasn’t born here he should be immediately deported. Any relatives who are here via a visa should as well. If WWW 3 goes down these people are a liability to put it mildly.

Shai Davidai

@ShaiDavidai

6 months

Protestor praising the burning of the American flag and saying that Bin Laden "did what he had to do" This is domestic terrorism.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@rakesh_goyal @ShitFund @paulg Small price to pay to mask the underlying monopoly and stave off regulation

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

There is a very real scenario where over the next 18mo Xi concludes that having access to frontier AI models is a massive geopolitical advantage and will pull forward a Taiwan invasion with the explicit goal of denying access by destroying TSMc. Surprised this isn’t discussed.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

@boutique_banker Hit back with: "The human spirit is more powerful than any drug and that is why it needs to be crushed from an early age." ……And then staff him on the most mind-numbing deal possible 🤝

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@liensofnewyork they keep using more slang everytime they call to make you feel they are more “in” than the next recruiter - carve, chop, juice, yards, paper, bleeding, tape, elephant, whale, tourist 😵‍💫

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

@PyajamaPandaBBQ @SafeGamble @ElbridgeColby The sooner Europeans realize this is the sentiment among the majority of Americans the better off they’ll be. Deluded into hearing what they want to hear from a minority in DC/Davos.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

I was today-years-old when I learnt that stocks rallied when Hitler invaded Poland in Sep. ‘39 (short covering/“less bad”) and only cratered nine months later with the invasion of France in May ‘40 😳

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@BucknSF Faire, Snyk, Brex, Calendy, Carta, Flexport, Databricks, Stripe, Plaid, ServiceTitan, Airtable, Redpanda, Canva, Prisma...endless list

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@StonksY2K All the downside without the upside as NVDA has shown it can take price without remitting much to its primary supplier. Furthermore if Xi invaded TW INTC likely gets preferential treatment in the subsequent rebuild. Your logic has merit but it’s certainly not black & white

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@Underrated_Dom @DailyLoud Full speech:

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@midtown_rob @IgnoreNarrative I see the Miami sunset through high rise glass windows, next to me is Orlando Bravo who embraces me like a son as he tells me he is honored to be leading a 14x EV/S buyout of my worst performing name, we crack a couple Modelos to celebrate

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@Doge_Lore_east @Lyndonx @disclosetv 1994. And that is not what the agreement stipulated. Saying something over and over on sub-tweets doesn’t make it true.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

Must subsidize demand bro

Taylor Marr

@TaylorAMarr

5 months

Vice President Harris Announces $5.5 Billion to Boost Affordable Housing, Invest in Economic Growth, Build Wealth, and Address Homelessness in Communities Throughout America via @whitehouse

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 months

@dalibali2 It’s an indictment of the current state of sellside that not a single analyst has ever framed the problem in this way

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

10 months

@dalibali2 *chuckles nervously and wipes tear with his Sberbank/Yandex stock certificate*

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@servbot_42 @TheWildster @CBMshots

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

@BucknSF Don’t underestimate incremental usage that comes with driving costs to approaching zero. Interesting anecdotes would include what companies like ACCD do around hc insurance space where they handhold people through their benefits. Can imagine similar use cases in financials etc

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@ElbridgeColby Great point but a counter argument is that the incremental cost of labor in China is already too high and uncompetitive and rural migration will only accel this. Given on-shoaring the ability to incentivize foreign investment will be an uphill battle…

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

@deanm0riarty I’ve been told I need to “touch grass” but unfort my local park has been taken over by migrants 🙃

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

@EHunterChristie @ElbridgeColby You’re looking at it the wrong way. If someone as pro-Poland as Bridge feels the need to remind them that they are not in secure enough footing to opine on internal politics…imagine how poorly a growing majority of Americans feel towards the “freeloaders” within NATO/Brussels

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

Slooty for GOOG CEO lfgoooo 😉

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

We should have given the entire $95b to this guy

Palmer Luckey

@PalmerLuckey

6 months

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

10 months

No idea what my YTD return on my PA was…all I know is if compliance wasn’t up my ass on every trade I’d have smoked all you mofos 🥰

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

Zuck shouldn’t stop cutting till he has 70% ebitda margins

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

Lmfao these are the banking concerns that truly deserve their attention on this fine weekend 😂

President Biden

@POTUS

2 years

My Administration is cracking down on illegal, surprise overdraft fees. We’ve already secured $30 million in refunds for about 170,000 account holders. And we won’t stop there.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@bigtitstrades @oof12345678902

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@Alphaholic1 Can confirm this happened. I was the bag.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

4 years

@balajis unit economics must have been pretty bad in TI even pre-cap

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

4 months

Read: vote for my comp package or you won’t get shares in SpaceX (**cough cough** Norges Bank)

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

4 months

I’ve mentioned something like this before, but, if any of my companies goes public, we will prioritize other longtime shareholders of my other companies, including Tesla. Loyalty deserves loyalty.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

How many of you are overexposed to BTC because compliance has been up your ass on every equity PA trade for the last decade 🫡☺️

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@MRatable How confident are you that Monday morning any ceo with deposits at a regional - tech or otherwise - says to themselves “why would I risk my bankers also mismatching duration” - and shift to JPM. Local lending gutted. No horse in this race but contagion is real.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

Every pod analyst is a “snr exec” now 😉

FTC

@FTC

6 months

FTC announces rule banning #noncompetes : /1

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@MadThunderdome Imagine buying AAPL at 23x P/E when the incentive for China squashing you to express displeasure just increased by 5x

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@bigtitstrades @minarchis1

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

9 months

At this rate I won’t have to lie to girls on dates anymore - being a finance bro will be cool again inshallah

Dave Portnoy

@stoolpresidente

9 months

In 20 years of doing this @BillAckman may be the most intimidating person I've ever seen. He's smart, persistent and deadly. Luckily so far I've been on his side on every issue he takes on. But if I was his enemy and saw him walking down the street I'd cross to the other side

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

4 months

@EBITimDuncAn If goal is buyside L/S & sector coverage/analyst is decent, take it and start looking for lateral to one of the multis that are expanding down there in a year or two. Just my $0.02 obviously if you have fam ties or relationships it changes calculus but suspect more PMs will move

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@WallStCynic Easy to talk shit from miami… I get you don’t like the guy and feel he unfairly pumped his stock to blow you up on the short side but he’s putting a much needed spotlight on an objective crisis

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@PeterZeihan You litterally predicted this 🥇

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

@buccocapital Business insider > Bloomberg is the real crime

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@BucknSF @MRatable This is a duration mismatch problem at its core. Tech deposit base is more volatile so you see it first… but after infinite QE I’d bet my left nutsack you can find bankers in Nebraska sitting on similar imbalances. So when CNN starts running the ‘08 analogies people WILL panic

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

@TwannsWorld Once you have even an hour to spare daily join a high-end gym with good looking people even if your building already has one. Motivates you and sleep/nutrition tend to follow once you get into a rhythm. Listen to earnings calls while you workout if you need to justify to yourself

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

Wen TWLO

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

9 months

@loneelmcapital Buy me dinner first 😏

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@redouad Favorites - China and Russia

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

Reminder that the U.S. is the safest place on earth and where capital looks to flee to in a crisis… and often geopolitical risks are more than priced in

Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

I was today-years-old when I learnt that stocks rallied when Hitler invaded Poland in Sep. ‘39 (short covering/“less bad”) and only cratered nine months later with the invasion of France in May ‘40 😳

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

@artificialcapit I suspect the target audience for these posts are startup CEOs who don’t know how to quickly access transcripts and are impacted by the growth rates of the dominant players in their space…

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@CapitalValor More people should read “lords of finance” imho - war time FX moves and implications to allies were a common dilemma in the early part of the 20th century

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@HoyasFan07 🇪🇺’s consistently frame this stuff in terms they don’t actually believe, but need to cling to, in order to justify 🇺🇸 support following decades of under-investment. It’s sad really. The sooner they frame the issue honestly the sooner they can make inevitable defense investments.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@netcapgirl Probabilistic, historically, inevitable, permutations, Ceteris paribus, path dependent, reflexive, precedent

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

@LearnEveryStock @the_P_God $500k+ One night stand with AOC

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

Hot take, most of this “manufacturing boom” is due to rapid increase in construction costs/tight labor. Not a single dollar of the CHIPS act has been distributed. (Source: National Highway Construction Cost Index published by US Dept of Transportation)

Science Is Strategic

@scienceisstrat1

5 months

The manufacturing boom is real 🏭

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@MadThunderdome @junkbondinvest Binary. Either they navigate downturn well (I.e. positive contribution margins without material reduction in volumes/opex cuts) or don’t. Zero equity or 10x with no in between. Bonds reflect inventory held less discount for hot market HPA declines. Betting against=poor R/R

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@highyield6 Nope they’ll double down. Credibility is on the line.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

😭😭😭

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

@adcock_brett You should take a deeper look at the data and how they qualify “school shootings” - it’s terrible but not nearly to the frequency implied by the often cited data

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@NYCJ3

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

@buccocapital

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

11 months

Am I the only one who sees this and thinks “wow, his pushing back on the migrant problem into an election year likely caused DC to put a target on his back”… or have I been overly red-pilled 😵‍💫

Financial Times

@FT

11 months

FBI seized New York mayor Eric Adams’ devices in corruption probe

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

5 months

@Rebrand_As_Y Not based on data but intuition is we wildly underestimated how much frequency of travel could increase for a relatively small portion of the population (recently retired boomers feeling rich + very single/DINK millennials with no children and WFH)

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

8 months

@acemoney21 I couldn’t agree more. @ElbridgeColby had done a great job of making that argument with a realist/logical lense. The moralist pushback and emoting coming from Brussels and DE as a result just highlights how out of touch the EU is vs growing U.S. sentiment ex the “elites”

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@HighyieldHarry @highyieldharry watching the interview getting ready for a string of memes

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@POTUS @RemindMe_OfThis in 9 months

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@skooookum Conspiracy theory: China is preparing to ramp its airline manufacturing globally similarly to EVs via BYD and is using low-grade sabotage to overcome its primary obstacle (inertia by airlines due to safety record via BA/Airbus monopoly)

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@BucknSF @MRatable I get the anger, I understand the vitriol. Moral hazard is fair. But the cost and lag of replicating the regional footprint by the big banks will devastate small biz for years… like clapping with glee as your rival drives a truck into your own home and say “nice, let it burn”

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

😭😭😭 “ethical capital”

Techmeme

@Techmeme

2 years

Pornhub owner MindGeek is acquired by PE firm Ethical Capital Partners; MindGeek had $460M in 2018 revenue, and sources say it had ~50% profit margins at times ( @patricianilsson / Financial Times)

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

2 years

@runews

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

1 year

@BeckettUnite Delete your account.

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

7 months

@HoyasFan07 @ElbridgeColby 😭 @ElbridgeColby your publisher needs to hire an animator asap and put out an abridged/cartoonized edition of SoD so you can just reply with visual excerpts

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Just Another Pod Guy

@TMTLongShort

6 months

@JohnAllenGay Any recent pods you’ve done that explores this in detail? Super helpful thread 🫡

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