How many seats can the Lib Dems win? Some prediction models have them at little over 20 seats, others at over 60. I tried to unpick what lies behind these variations here:
Am on a train and a table of Polish & Ukrainians are speaking in (of course perfect) English about the situation, about Putin, about what it means for Europe and UK. And I find myself thinking how immeasurably enriched this country has been by Eastern European immigrants.
My son has a temperature so now my doctor wife, who has no symptoms and was running an incident management unit at a busy hospital, has to stay at home.
#testtesttest
I live down a narrow lane at the bottom of a steep hill that doesn't get gritted. When it snows, getting down is slippery. Leaving (uphill) is impossible unless you have a 4x4. So people get stuck. Yesterday this delivered a lesson in the social costs of Neo-liberalism. 1/7
It’s very simple: as Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson went from a NATO summit to discuss Russia to an orgy hosted by a (believed to be) former KGB agent in an Italian palazzo. I think that most UK politicians wouldn’t be allowed to get away with that and I’m amazed he has.
Am I the only one who finds it odd that the PM keeps citing the 'ventilator challenge' as the justification for helping Dyson, when it is widely known that Dyson made no ventilators and the whole operation was a costly fiasco?
For the avoidance of doubt (on basis of 16+ years in FCO), it is NOT normal for a PM to chair *every* COBRA but IS normal for PM to chair COBRA when the matter *is* a national emergency.
The PM’s presence is a good yardstick of how seriously the PM takes the issue.
Neo-liberalism isn't about making things more efficient, it's about getting other parts of society to cover the costs of profiteering by shareholders who often avoid taxes. Now, time to order those last minute presents, on Amazon, because all the shops have closed down.
7/7
Right now, the London Stock Exchange is trading shares in Rosneft and Gazprom, which directly finances Putin’s wars. There are powers to suspend these. There are powers to impose emergency punitive regulation on our offshore financial sectors. If not now, then when? 2/2
"We have seen a small minority behave in extreme thuggery and violent behaviour today"
Home Secretary Priti Patel condemns protests in London after some demonstrators clashed with police
I hope that London lawyers, advisers and consultants are thinking hard about how they’ve enabled the Kremlin in recent years. Some of this was unwitting. Much was not. The idea that trade is good for democracy doesn’t work when your trade is helping kleptocracy. 1/2
In 2002 I became painfully aware of a journalist called Boris Johnson writing racist articles. His subsequent career added 'liar' to the racism. He was a disgrace as foreign sec. I wrote about this 5 years ago. Not that it made a difference.
Because he was driving a regular car I was able to tow him up the lane. But it was dicey - only possible with a powerful 4x4 vehicle. Just like with food banks, Amazon is relying on public generosity to subsidise its business model.
4/7
But all this really does is push the costs somewhere else. I didn't mind at all helping the Amazon guy (if I hadn't, he'd have been staying at our house anyway!). But society is picking up the costs of zero hours contracts in many ways.
6/7
I find it disgraceful that major media outlets ever reported this as remotely a serious idea. Clearly the PM was talking shit from the outset- his default option - and it behoves the media to cover it as such.
We need ironclad unity among allies in support of Ukraine. I joined 🇪🇺 FAC today where we agreed with 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 that Putin must fail in Ukraine and that we will continue to use sanctions to debilitate the Russia economy and war machine. We all stand with
@dmytrokuleba
and Ukraine.
This for me is the point - you can't run a country where an individual MP who is currently leader of his party can make a decision without any consultation based on short-term political gain, which will have impacts for decades to come for millions of people.
Not a democracy.
So the Cabinet wasn't consulted, Parliament wasn't consulted, local government wasn't consulted and Network Rail wasn't consulted.
Just a personal decision by this year's prime minister.
Whatever the merits of HS2, this is a lamentable way for a democracy to be governed.
As DCMS SoS, no one from the security services has ever mentioned Lord Lebedev to me. All I see is him using the front pages of
@standardnews
to publish the most heart wrenching images and to decry Putins evil war.
Tonight is no exception and carries his signature.
I watched the Jacques Delors obit on BBC news and it turns out his life was about Margaret Thatcher and The Sun. If only he could have made his mark in his native Continental Europe.
In Brexit/divorce we’ve reached the stage where the deadbeat dad, having been cleaned out by his ex’s lawyers, moves to a pokey flat and buys a massive TV. In his increasingly regular trips alone to the pub he insists to the barmaid that he’s “never been happier.”
“Today, I’m introducing a new illegal migration bill.”
Say what you like about
@SuellaBraverman
, but at least she’s telling the truth. The new bill is illegal under international law and will almost certainly be thrown out by the courts.
I still find it hard to believe that Britain’s first high speed rail system connecting any of our major cities will be a bizarrely pointless branch line to a depot in the middle of nowhere. As a monument to a country that’s given up you couldn’t ask for something clearer.
@JamesBowes5705
yeah I think there's a fundamental inability to realise that it's better to spend £100bn on something that works than spend £80bn on something that doesn't
The horrific discovery of mass graves in Bucha must be investigated and those responsible held accountable.
There must be an urgent and immediate ceasefire in Ukraine to end the bloodshed that has already taken so many lives.
Our tolerance for any disruption, whether through protest or otherwise, will be low.
We will deal robustly with anyone intent on undermining this celebration.
🧵🔽
I spoke to 2 senior lawyers today who're all over this topic. They say there's nothing in the post-Brexit regs that makes it substantively harder. This is a bit of govt spin attempting to blame a "lefty lawyer" for something far simpler - the influence of Russian ££ on this govt.
#Brexit
is stalling sanctioning of 🇷🇺 oligarchs.
Govt accepted amendments by Lord Pannick to beef up laws so they “provided for procedural fairness” on those being sanctioned and made sure they accorded with “human rights principles.”
1/3
The other guy is an
@amazon
driver. He works for himself. He doesn't have a recovery service or someone he can call for help. If he fails to make deliveries, he doesn't earn anything. He told me that he's relying on food banks a lot at the moment.
3/7
All the economists, consultants and investors who like Amazon's business model probably admire the leanness, the efficiency, home delivery all outsourced. I imagine there are people telling Tesco to go down that route. "Lay off your driver fleet - that's the old economy..."
5/7
Holy shit. Congressman-elect Bob Good of Virginia starts speaking and immediately proclaims, "this looks like a group of people that gets it. This is a phony pandemic."
“five families”, “Star Chamber”, “Spartans”. It’s middle-aged men who’ve led empty lives living out their little fantasies. Like when people come up with project names like ‘Ajax’ or ‘Hercules’.
JUST. GROW. UP!
#MarkFrancois
, Chairman of the ERG, updates press outside Portcullis House on the meeting of the so called "five families" of Conservative Party right wing groups (c. 100 MPs) today re. the upcoming Rwanda Bill tomorrow. Separate pic sets at
@avalondotred
and Alamy Live News.
I’m amazed that people talk about
@Conservatives
as if it’s a regular party having a bad few days. It’s proven a threat to the rule of law, our legislature and constitution. The institution *and its representatives* are unpatriotically destroying this country.
This will be seen as a dull procedural issue. But it’s massive. The HoL Speaker is having to resort to social media to get the word out that the government is trying to circumvent parliament.
British people are so complacent about the weakness of their democracy.
Secondary legislation doesn’t often grab the headlines, but it matters. The
@UKHouseofLords
scrutinises every scrap of it to flag concerns. Here, eagle-eyed peers highlight the use of regulations to bring in measures previously rejected by Lords in a vote.
Just in case anyone doesn’t know: this guy never made a penny himself. All his money comes from his dad who was a KGB officer and is sanctioned (but not in this country) for his actions in occupied Crimea, among other things.
The hilariously miscalculated closure of
@Nigel_Farage
’s account tells a wider story: one of corporate virtue signalling which, since last February, has weaponised Russophobia for the sake of moral posturing.
Beginner’s guide to the
#UkraineConflict
. 5 things that’re important.
1 HISTORY
No point arguing about Kievan Rus (Google it). 🇺🇦 has been an independent state since USSR ended. As has Russia, Estonia, Azerbaijan etc. So, if you accept existence of any, you accept them all.
Lord Lebedev is lesson in the failures of HoL. He's a leading press baron (literally) & "philanthropist". His advocates say he's smart & interesting. He sits as a cross bencher. And yet he's never showed up or voted. So it's just a gong. For a KGB-billionaire's son.
Oh 🇬🇧, why?
Elite Remain are 100% sure Brexit = the risky option. I think Remain = the risky option & getting riskier as €zone stagnates/fails. VL failed to communicate this & what to do after Brexit cos of ERG 🤡 disrupting campaign. This difference partly why so much misunderstanding now
I have spent too much of the past few days thinking about
#KwasiKwarteng
. We're of similar age and when I started at university in 1994 someone said he was "the cleverest person of his generation". What this actually meant was that he was the cleverest Etonian that year.
1/4
'How many Britons died because of Brexit? Zero'
Former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko tells ITV News that
@BorisJohnson
should 'please' avoid comparing the Ukrainian resistance to Brexit
Two delivery drivers got stuck at the same time by my house yesterday. One from
@Tesco
- a bit stressed as he had a tight schedule of deliveries. But he was okay - he's an employee of a large company which has paid for a recovery service. They sent a truck which got him out. 2/7
I have literally spent the past 18 months working on a book on how, in subtle and insidious ways, Britain has undermined international norms and laws and then it just goes and does it blatantly.
Thanks guys
Around the world, there are certain assets which are held on Putin’s behalf by pliant oligarchs. Houses, yachts, businesses. Western agencies know exactly what these are. Bad things need to start happening, deniably, to these assets.
So it seems that today Turkey blocked Russian military ships from the Black Sea and Germany changed a decades-old policy on arms exports. This is very bad for Putin.
I don’t like anti
@bbclaurak
stuff but this line really jars: “if you had been listening, at all, the result was not a surprise. But the civil service had not expected or prepared for it.” The result was even a surprise to the Brexists, ffs. Civil service ordered not to prepare.
This is the plan: get a crap deal and rely on an uncritical media to present it as a victory over pesky foreigners. Worked last year and will work again. When in 2021 we find that prices have gone up and businesses are folding we will blame those same pesky foreigners.
Populism
Rishi Sunak does things that piss off his headbanger colleagues (on immigration, on REUL, on deals with Europe). But if you analyse his actions as someone who knows he's lost the 2024 gen elex and is seeking a big international job (IMF, World Bank) they make perfect sense.
I genuinely believe that most British people, if told about a developing country where wealthy individuals can purchase lifelong membership of a legislature, would react with disdainful dismay. But because it happens here we think it’s fine.
Britain will have completed its transition to emerging market economy when the CEO of one of its largest banks has to resign for a very minor commercially sound decision that offended the hard right populist movement that controls government and the media.
From
@CouttsandCo
’s “dossier” on
@Nigel_Farage
, 10 March at 2.46 pm:
“I wanted to make you aware of a commercial exit decision we have made on the account of Nigel Farage. The relationship has been below commercial criteria for some time …”
And what does Mr Farage say? /1.
It’s now clear that there’s been yet another lie from Johnson: he didn’t “lose” his old WhatsApp messages. He deleted them. That was always the likeliest outcome but now it’s certain.
BREAKING: ⚡️ Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a heart attack. Therefore, he has not appeared at official events since mid-March,” writes Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
“Wokeness is causing a lack of hope and anxiety in our young people.”
Conservative MP Miriam Cates tells
#TimesRadio
that teaching “critical justice theories” in schools is contributing to hopelessness about the future in young people.
You have to assume his unhinged behaviour relates to the realisation that his only lasting legacy will be winning a battle and losing, utterly, the war that followed, showing his essential frivolity and mediocrity. Living with your own record can be hard.
all of you fuckers who whine about Vote Leave face this fact -
on 12 March the DHSC Permanent Secretary was pushing chickenpox parties on the Cabinet Secretary who tried to get the PM to say this to the country that day - AND VOTE LEAVE SPADS STOPPED THE INSANE FUCKING PLAN
Frost will be remembered for flying to Lisbon to deliver a speech (whose content won’t be remembered) to an empty room at the British Embassy. This was because as Europe minister he had lost the respect of Europeans.
Hard to find a clearer expression of exquisite failure.
If only there was some sort of way to elect local representatives who could meet in a sort of “council” to decide policies for local communities. I guess you could call them “councillors” and the system could be known as “local democracy”. Just a blue sky idea I guess.
People should decide what happens to their towns.
Each town will receive a new Town Board as part of PM
@RishiSunak
’s long-term plan for towns.
Bringing together community groups, businesses and local authorities to make sure the decisions are the right ones for local people.
Every time you’re told you must wait months for an NHS referral or that there’s no mental health support available for your child, remember they found hundreds of millions to spend on this pointlessly stupid policy.
Sending the first 300 migrants to Rwanda costs £1.8m each. To put that in context, school funding is around £7,600 per child per year. So the cost of sending one migrant to Rwanda would get 234 children education for a year. Is that a good use of money?
The government is right to insist on security checks before letting in Ukrainian refugees. After all, their detailed checks meant they didn’t let in a whole load of Russian oligarchs who were then able to interfere in our politics and national life.
Right?
So he's obviously not dumb. He might be corruptly helping hedge-fund mates coin it, but I suspect that's simplistic. I wonder if this is what happens if someone has been told, since childhood, that they are the cleverest person of all. They might not end up a good listener.
4/4
On
@BBCRadio4
I hear
@bbclaurak
explaining that the reason the
#BrexitShambles
is unfolding is because the EU isn’t united, and we know this because unnamed members of the Cabinet told her. How is this news? It’s unsourced agitprop from govt trying to get the blame in early.
So, they had a fully prepared negotiating team staffed with the most experienced people in the EU. We had a minister “as thick as mince” who believed German car makers were going to fix things and whose idea of incisive was to take a f*cking saw to Barnier’s chair.
"On one occasion when he was Brexit secretary, David Davis’s aides sawed off part of the legs of a chair to make it shorter so Barnier was at a disadvantage in a news conference."
Putting aside the distasteful politics, it’s a disgrace that
@MatthewRycroft1
let this through. Blatant electioneering with HMG resources on the eve of an election. Banana republic stuff and Rycroft should be better than this.
Incredible. It was always obvious they stood down the OBR because they wanted to avoid scrutiny, rather that there being a real point about time. But now it's clear they lied about it.
🔥Wow. OBR writing to Blackford totally torpedoes govt’s there-was-no-time defence. Says they gave forecasts to Kwarteng on his first day and offered to update them with any measures to be published alongside mini-budget but “were not commissioned”. ~AA
Emily Maitlis: "You didn't say well I'm not quite sure - you said it would turn the UK into a slave state and then you consider voting for it!"
Emily Matilis grills Jacob Rees-Mogg on the language he has used around the Govts withdrawal agreement.
#newsnight
|
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
Have to say I’m completely amazed that Tories think they can get away with this “National Conservatism” nonsense whilst still pretending they’re not a far right party. Braverman, Gove, Rees-Mogg all speaking at the conference.
1/2
‘National Conservatism’ is a euphemism for far right ideology, embraced by authoritarian demagogues like Viktor Orban. It’s time sensible people stated to understand the extent to which formerly mainstream conservative parties have become radicalised. Before it’s too late.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
This is genuinely one of the most important Twitter threads I’ve ever seen. Anyone who cares about 🇬🇧 national security needs to read it.
@samdunningo
is a dogged, serious and brilliant investigator. Please read and RT widely.
Much scrutiny lately of 'Chinese police stations' operating on the streets of Britain…
What links the 'stations' to British politics, the Chinese Communist Party, an assault in the heart of London, & serious organised crime?
This is big.
1/54
What would be worse for Russia than a “brother nation” with a huge land border with Russia joining NATO? A not-brother nation with a huge land border, an immense army and the history of fighting a war against Russia In the 20th century, joining NATO.
Tories have normalised 2 particularly dangerous political strategies: 1 is pure dishonesty. Don’t be expected to tell the truth or to act on your promises. 2 is creating a taboo around personal tax rates. They must *never* rise.
1/4
He should be asked about this in *every* interview. Easy, tight question: "Mr Sunak, when you told the Martyn's law families that the law *would* be passed, were you lying?"
Also this should be asked of *every* Tory candidate: "When your party leader told... was he lying?"
Sunak had already seen the King, he knew what his plans were and he knowingly misled the family. He didn't fudge or equivocate he gave a commitment he knew he could never deliver.
Is this really some who is fit to be the PM?