Giles Wilkes Profile Banner
Giles Wilkes Profile
Giles Wilkes

@Gilesyb

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After advising No10 and BIS,writing @FT , now specialist partner @flintglobal , senior fellow @instituteforgov looking for authentic ways to improve us

London
Joined March 2009
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
5 months
Remarkably, 15 months ago there was a 49 day government whose actions triggered a bond market panic and the reversal of tens of billions in tax measures. Even more remarkably, it blamed “Treasury Orthodoxy“ for the country's ills. So we sat down to investigate 1/16
@instituteforgov
Institute for Government
5 months
[NEW] Treasury ‘orthodoxy’: What is it? And is it a problem for government? Our report by @Gilesyb @ollybartrum @RhysClyne says the department wields too much influence across government and dominates strategic thinking at the centre. 📖 Read the report
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
6 months
I'm SO glad I never had to learn English as a foreign language. This *looks* like nine consecutive nouns.
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
I'm old enough to remember when the point of an Emergency Budget was to solve one, not cause one
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
3 years
the Remainers just won't talk about this graph
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
This is an absolutely damning chart - via @FT
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
This is an astonishingly important story from @jburnmurdoch . Our suddenly-diminished labour force is an immediate, dangerous drag on UK prosperity. It's a hypothesis, but if NHS decay is the reason, this is THE issue of the decade
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
The Economist absolutely goes to town on the political roots of the UK's demise
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
can't be too careful. Checking for all of you
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Giles Wilkes
5 years
This is a HUGE story from @ChrisGiles_ - "Brexit has cut UK productivity by up to 5%, says BoE". Before any kind of Brexit has happened Because percentages sound little, it won't get the coverage it deserves. It's £40-100bn of lost income *every* year 1/
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
3 years
Not sure I've ever seen @FT take the gloves off like this: "There is no doubt that a substantial proportion of the governing Conservative party shares Patel’s contempt for the England team’s anti-racism efforts" -
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
3 years
Bemused southern Remainers like me, about to be befuddled by the Hartlepool poll result, need constant reminders that there are lots of people who really, genuinely, honestly think that the Government did them a massive favour by pushing through Brexit ...
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
Half an hour into the queue at the car rental, I'm still bemused at how each transaction appears to be a bespoke, anguished negotiation between a tourist and someone seemingly bewildered to be asked to provide a car, of all things. Why isn't it two minutes max?
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
5 years
On the BBC Katya Adler is clear that, from the EU point of view, the weakness in the UK bargaining position is not the threat of parliament stopping no deal, but our utter lack of a decent alternative to the backstop
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
8 months
I actually think that to write this ungrammatically is plain rude. Several verbless sentences can be found within this rant, and at one point this causes her, unintentionally, to call Boris Johnson unforgivable. Ffs
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
"at the World Bank, we did hundreds of investor surveys on what determined their willingness to invest in a country...Low taxes and enterprise zones were always near the bottom" via @FT
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
3 years
For some reason I just can't understand, that broadcast said very little about non pharmaceutical interventions, such as limiting large gatherings indoors
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
I don't know what's the obsession with making this or that 'work like Netflix', we already have something that works like Netflix, it's called "Netflix". The point of public service broadcasting is to fill gaps...
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
1 year
This is shocking. Since when did people in the UK start calling autumn "fall"?
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
7 months
Imagine, for one minute, that the Chancellor had to announce *all the details* of what public services have to do in order to find an extra £20bn of "savings" in a few years' time - and not just the nice things he can do with £20bn today 1/
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
5 months
2016: "Brexit will make you richer! Cheaper food! Well funded health care! A prosperous trading nation!" 2024: "oh you wanted *tangible* benefits did you, you philistine? How low! There's more to life than being able to afford dinner"
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
Nice to see Jurgen Klinsmann commentating so eloquently on the BBC. I wonder which former England player they have doing this on German TV
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
Genuinely fascinated and blown away by how highly functional Finland's state appears to be. How/why is this? Amazing @FT story by Richard Milne
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
17 days
Goodness: on @BBCRadio4 I've just heard Fraser Nelson say of the Conservatives' tax claim "they seem to think they have a licence to lie during election campaigns", which is off-the-scale disrespect for a Spectator editor... 1/
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
Editor: "I'm tired of us looking anti-Truss" Writer: "but her performance thus far has been panned everywhere..." Editor: "don't care. Find something positive to say" Writer: "can I set the bar really low?" Editor: "sure" Writer:
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
The Economist takes off the gloves, fills them with nails, puts them back on, starts punching
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
10 months
My overall verdict: - Truss is more sincere than I expect. She really, really believes this stuff. - Against that, she is madder than I expected. She really, really believes this stuff. Some of what she believes is internally consistent but still nuts imho: 1/
@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
10 months
Truss: "we were deliberately careful about discussing public spending. The politics is difficult" Translation: we obfuscated the implications of our plans because people would have hated it and realized it is incredibly unworkable
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Giles Wilkes
2 months
Astonishing chart from @jburnmurdoch - The UK is brilliant at handling immigration, relatively. Could be a huge strength in the decades ahead
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
7 months
I honestly wonder if the Rwanda policy deserves study as the stupidest ever to be pushed in the UK. Perfectly calibrated to repel centrists; wind up furious right-wingers; and obviously do next to nothing about the actual issue. Also wasting govt time massively. Incredible.
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
9 months
Serious question: what are the worst actually completed "white elephants" in the UK? AFAIK the ones that were *feared* to be white elephants - Jubilee line, Crossrail, Eurotunnel, etc? - we now regard as a thoroughly good thing 1/
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
It's taken a war and global pandemic to mask the debut of the worst policy for small company exports ever conceived by a UK government- via @pmdfoster 1/2...
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
8 months
This may be the most astonishing policy success I've read about in years
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
This graph is very telling
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
8 months
Braverman's letter may be the lowest-class event I can recall in politics. It isn't a 'zinger'. Geoffrey Howe's quietly devastating speech was a zinger. This on the other hand was pure crude aggression.
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
6 months
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
4 years
"to many foreign observers, Britain’s death toll serves as confirmation of deeper-rooted problems: a political culture of hubris and exceptionalism; atrophied public services; inequality and poor health"
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
5 years
Extraordinary how many policy postures he picks up and mauls in just two minutes
@brexit_sham
Brexitshambles
5 years
People may have their problems with Blair but listen as he perfectly elucidates the real problems with Brexit. Most appear to have forgotten that the reasons people voted for Brexit aren't the reason why we are where we are; that's because Vote Leave and LeaveEU lied and cheated.
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
As your go-to person for the Wars of the Red Tape, can I put this astonishing figure in context? 50,000 staff, let's call that £30k each, very conservative; this is a skilled job. That's £1.5bn recurring annual wasted spending. - via @FT
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
I'm confused. Can't the PM just ask the Taxpayers' Alliance simply to divulge where all the easy cuts to public spending can be found? I'm sure they've been telling us for years that there are loads of them
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
4 months
In 1947, Hugh Dalton "revealed a sentence of the budget to a reporter minutes before delivering his budget speech. Prime Minister Clement Attlee accepted his resignation". In 2024:
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
4 years
My favourite saying about spads is still: they are like poisoners. Either famous, or good at their job.
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
The Economist gives it both barrels
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Giles Wilkes
5 years
Nothing makes my lips curl with contempt harder than the way governments assume something is handled, "because they have a spreadsheet" Except the mind-blown wonder with which the journalists report it
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
The Economist Bagehot column has gone to 11 on the rude scale
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
Announced at 5. "Unveiled" 90 minutes earlier on a journalist's Twitter feed, like all grownup countries do it
@Peston
Robert Peston
4 years
These are the measures to be announced by the PM at 5, as I understand it. They will last 2 December. And they are, In effect, a new “Tier 4” that will be imposed for a month initially to the whole of England. 1) All pubs and restaurants to close, though takeaways...
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
My *first day* as a spad, a well known business organisation slaps down on my desk a list of 100 regulatory problems from members. Hooray, I think: actual content. Leafing through - about 98 were variants on "I find it tiresome having to make arrangements for pregnant staff"
@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
3 years
It's always the same. Someone chunters on about how what we need for growth is regulatory change. But they're not sure what. So they issue a plea to business/the public. It's like asking someone else to provide the punchline to your own stupid joke -
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Giles Wilkes
9 months
Just glorious -
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
9 months
Tom is probably right. The day after the announcement, the cost of HS2 was raised by unknown billions by the sheer destructive and uncertainty-spreading manner of the thing. Now industry has to wearily look at all these other schemes. It's all a pitiful mess 1/
@thomasforth
Tom Forth
9 months
Labour are, I suspect, very sadly, right not to promise to uncancel HS2. The earth is being salted, the wells are being poisoned. It's probably over. Try again in a decade or two. Hope I'm wrong. Don't reckon I am.
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
"it has been Scholar’s misfortune to have to confront the Conservatives with the consequences of their own policy choices in terms of lower growth and lower tax receipts" - perfectly put
@Simon_Nixon
Simon Nixon
2 years
It's hard to avoid the suspicion that what really lies behind the Truss government's assault on the Treasury is deep embarrassment at the economic consequences of the last 12 years of Conservative party rule. My latest
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
10 months
Trying to compile history's maddest takes without this man's incredible output would be like listing the twenty greatest sonnets without including Shakespeare
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
This, from @resfoundation is the most astonishing chart - were it not from such a reputable source, I would not believe my eyes
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
.... rather than, say, that a bunch of wilfully self-destructive people perversely chose to vote against their own interests to punish remote, elite others from the privileged south in an irrational spasm of cultural spite and are still somehow enjoying their vandalism
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
6 months
Ok so my daughter Flo says this this the point at which I should try to publicise her singing career. This is her lovely first song. She's releasing another at a gig on 23rd February
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
Listening to analysis on Radio 4 that there is no identifiable limit to how far energy bills might rise, it's hard to believe the leadership election is taking place in the same country
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
‘A giant bonfire of taxpayers’ money’: fraud and the UK pandemic loan scheme - The numbers in this story are astronomical. Any other time and this would be the public policy scandal of the decade
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Giles Wilkes
6 months
"No10 to lay enormous trap, built in the shape of the word TRAP, wrapped in trap-themed paper and advertise the trap in Trap Monthly, Your Magazine for Labour Traps"
@whazell
Will Hazell
6 months
Exclusive @Telegraph : Downing Street officials are looking at changing the Government’s fiscal rules in an attempt to set a trap for Labour over borrowing
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
A lot of people totally owning Putin on Twitter today, totally exposing his hypocrisy. Bad day for him.
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
Why they still think Brexit is helping them is still beyond me, but that they do is surely undeniable
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
This is really sad
@BylineTV
Byline TV
3 years
“I regret voting leave” the owner of one of Devon’s largest fish exporters said he was brainwashed by brexiteers, now his business is facing ruin because of Brexit
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
What a fascinating chart
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
I like the "fingers crossed" because it suggests the result on the day may be in doubt, and some pretender to the throne may be lurking. Makes it a bit more watchable.
@SkyNews
Sky News
1 year
The Prince of Wales has told Sky News he feels "good" ahead of the weekend's coronation, adding: "fingers crossed." Latest coronation news:
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
There is nothing, NOTHING, more pitiful than a government spinning that it's about to transform the economy through an attack on "Red Tape", unless it's the newspaper docilely amplifying it
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
if you want a benefit from blowing up your car, you are going to become way fitter now, walking way more. Thank me later
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
"Believe in the good faith of people whose opinions you find incomprehensible" is my sanctimonious self-advice of the day
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
10 months
Downing Street's environmental policy:
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Giles Wilkes
8 months
don't want to sound too like a teenage Corbynista but I wish the people who see AI as an existential risk would apply half as much imagination to what they think might happen if global warming hit 2.5 or 3.0 degrees
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
5 years
I think this is the sort of sharp, unconflicted reporting that has just won the FT that newsroom of the Year award, and not the one from other journalists joyously tweeting out the stunt
@PickardJE
Jim Pickard 🐋
5 years
Johnson's digger stunt at the JCB factory was great publicity for the company: so would it be a conflict of interest if it turned out that JCB and/or its chairman Anthony Bamford were big donors to the Conservative party?
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Giles Wilkes
5 years
A short thread on this £15bn a year red tape bill because I don't think it's fully sunk in how FLIPPING ENORMOUS THAT IS - via @FT
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
This looks like an incredibly serious mistake on the government's side: having a de facto shutdown without allowing insurance clauses to be triggered. Theatres have a huge multiplier for the London economy, and productions don't just grow back like sugar cane
@PatrickGracey
Patrick Gracey
4 years
. @BorisJohnson has just doomed an entire industry by telling people not to attend the theatre. By not enforcing a shutdown, production insurance will not apply so producers and shows will go bankrupt, and tens of thousands of people will be without pay. @hmtreasury @DCMS
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
I can't bear this: "yes we have to cut spending because that way we can have competitive taxes and ultimately grow the economy and boost spending". Do the maths: a £40bn cut in spending would require GDP -every year- to be £100bn higher to compensate. Does it achieve that? 1/
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
If you fear a "monstrous coalition", wait till you remember what damage can be done by a narrow, minority-view party sect in full undemocratic control of the executive
@Telegraph
The Telegraph
2 years
🔴Liz Truss will issue a stark warning to Conservative MPs returning to Parliament this week to stop undermining her or face a “monstrous coalition” of Labour and the Scottish National Party
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
It's always the same. Someone chunters on about how what we need for growth is regulatory change. But they're not sure what. So they issue a plea to business/the public. It's like asking someone else to provide the punchline to your own stupid joke -
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
don't think I will ever get over the irony of the one solidly positive Brexit economic win to materialise is higher migration. Never.
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
I'm afraid this bit strips away all conceivable sympathy for the Treasury for me "We can't afford to fund fair pay rises because we want to cut taxes in election year". Saying the quiet bit out loud ...
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
2000-2019 Lib Dems: we should transform the economy through renewable energy like wind people: shut up stupid hippies, learn how to count 2020 Tories: let's do loads of wind, become "Saudi Arabia of wind" people: woah, visionary, that's more like it
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
It genuinely fascinates me, how much more quickly things were done in the pre-computer age 1960s- via @FT
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Giles Wilkes
6 months
OK, the seats consequence of this actually happening are hilarious:
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@YouGov
YouGov
6 months
Labour holds a 27pt lead in our latest voting intention poll (16-17 Jan) - their largest lead since Liz Truss was PM Con: 20% (-2 from 10-11 Jan) Lab: 47% (+2) Lib Dem: 8% (-1) Reform UK: 12% (+2) Green: 7% (-1) SNP: 3% (=)
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
Every year it becomes more embarrassing and mystifying that we allowed this guy into Downing Street
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
4 years
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
via wow @TheEconomist is not pulling its punches
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
"among the benefits of Brexit, you are now allowed to walk your dog in a park on Tuesdays..." "um but Minister you're already allowed to wa..." "PUT IT IN GODDAMYOU" via @FT
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
I guess it was impossible to know at the time, but for future we might want to avoid putting ourselves in a position of maximum weakness and then negotiating. Lesson learned.
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
Everyone screws up. But have you ever hired a caterer only to watch him form a private army of hardened criminals & then invade your country?
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
What's rather remarkable is that the worst of the economic outcomes - winter fuel bills, higher mortgages, the spending cuts - are yet to come
@PeoplePolling
PeoplePolling
2 years
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct): 🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct) 🔵 CON: 14% (-5) 🟠 LDM: 11% (+3) 🟢 GRN: 6% (=) 🟡 SNP: 5% (-1) Full tables:
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
Takes something bordering on genius to find what is literally the most unworkable, bad idea from early Thatcherism and adopt it
@economics
Bloomberg Economics
2 years
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has signaled that she would give the Bank of England a money supply target to ensure it’s “tough on inflation” if she wins the Tory leadership race and becomes Britain’s next prime minister
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
4 years
Saw in the FT today that local authority income is down 60% since 2010. With all the chatter about Levelling Up, I'm constantly surprised the whole conversation isn't dominated by that fact
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 years
The nation that laughed itself stupid - another superb piece from @JGaneshEsq
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
4 years
This is phenomenal writing by Rory Stewart
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
8 years
Difficult to see the pound forming the Dying Elephant pattern as good news
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Giles Wilkes
8 years
This is beautiful writing-
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Giles Wilkes
3 months
It's like Gladstone and Disraeli in there right now
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Giles Wilkes
1 year
However badly you've messed up, have you ever messed up so badly that your former headmaster writes into the Times to bemoan his failure to have done something about it? No? you're doing OK
@rwilliams1947
Richard Williams
1 year
An excellent letter in The Times this morning from ⁦ @ClaughtonJohn ⁩ — who, if memory serves, combined his work as a master at Eton with writing cricket reports for the Independent on Sunday.
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
When he finds out who was advising No10 during that time he is going to be absolutely bloody furious
@aljwhite
Alan White
4 years
STEVE HILTON IS ON FOX ATTACKING AUSTERITY THE GRIFT HERE IS ABSOLUTELY OFF THE CHARTS
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
1 year
anyone with eight or nine hours free today, go round to the Express and explain the difference between levels and rates of change. You'll need crayons, sock puppets,, plenty of haribo sweets as rewards. Good luck
@MrRBourne
Ryan Bourne
1 year
Alright, that's it. I just....give up.
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
2 months
Cannot be tweeted enough
@Samfr
Sam Freedman
3 years
Homer flying first class: "Look at me Marge I'm reading the Economist! Did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?"
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Giles Wilkes
2 years
There is no amount of dunking on libertarian perma-tax-cut think tanks that is excessive, imho. They have been sneering at the centrist consensus for decades, with no thought whatsoever for the real world consequences if their policies were enacted. It's part of learning
@ChrisGiles_
Chris Giles
2 years
How it started.....How it finished @iealondon
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
4 years
I still consider the noblest 10 minutes of my life those I spent in 2015 arguing at the FT leader conference that we endorse Miliband in the election, because a. his fiscal plans were clearly less insane than Osborne's b. he didn't threaten a stupid referendum ...
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
Rishi Sunak reveals forecasts suggesting coronavirus will leave the economy 3% smaller in 2025 than previously expected. That is *huge*. Almost half a Brexit.
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Giles Wilkes
7 months
The Conservatives are literally going to waste years arguing about loyalty to the Rwanda Policy as a mark of purity. Attacking people who call it bullshit. For something is ineffective at its very core.
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@Gilesyb
Giles Wilkes
1 year
I'd go further. It's quite clearly a protest vote against the removal of Liz Truss and the refusal to continue her excellent policies
@johnredwood
John Redwood
1 year
Many former Conservative voters stayed at home in protest at high taxes, lack of control of our borders, and too much local and national government interference in their lives.
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Giles Wilkes
3 years
It is curious how this is barely a feature of the political discussion any more
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@James_BG
James Murray
3 years
We're going to get through an entire conference season without the slightest inquiry as to how over 100,000 people died and the UK experienced one of the worst death rates of any developed nation, aren't we? The learning lessons phase was basically measured in microseconds.
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Giles Wilkes
7 months
The One Nation Tories have far more reason to object to the Rwanda bill, and are caving. The ERG types have been given an incredibly hardline bill, and are rebelling for more. The Conservative dynamic since 2013, in a nutshell.
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Giles Wilkes
4 years
Stages of lockdown scepticism I've seen: - Pandemic over, relax harder (Aug) - so what if cases are rising, this isn't exponential (Sep) - Well it's deaths that matter, no one is dying in Sweden - OK so it's bad but I think Vallance exaggerated -there's nothing we could have done
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