After advising No10 and BIS,writing
@FT
, now specialist partner
@flintglobal
, senior fellow
@instituteforgov
looking for authentic ways to improve us
Remarkably, 15 months ago there was a 49 day government whose actions triggered a bond market panic and the reversal of tens of billions in tax measures.
Even more remarkably, it blamed “Treasury Orthodoxy“ for the country's ills.
So we sat down to investigate 1/16
[NEW] Treasury ‘orthodoxy’: What is it? And is it a problem for government?
Our report by
@Gilesyb
@ollybartrum
@RhysClyne
says the department wields too much influence across government and dominates strategic thinking at the centre.
📖 Read the report
This is an astonishingly important story from
@jburnmurdoch
. Our suddenly-diminished labour force is an immediate, dangerous drag on UK prosperity. It's a hypothesis, but if NHS decay is the reason, this is THE issue of the decade
This is a HUGE story from
@ChrisGiles_
- "Brexit has cut UK productivity by up to 5%, says BoE". Before any kind of Brexit has happened
Because percentages sound little, it won't get the coverage it deserves. It's £40-100bn of lost income *every* year 1/
Not sure I've ever seen
@FT
take the gloves off like this:
"There is no doubt that a substantial proportion of the governing Conservative party shares Patel’s contempt for the England team’s anti-racism efforts"
-
Bemused southern Remainers like me, about to be befuddled by the Hartlepool poll result, need constant reminders that there are lots of people who really, genuinely, honestly think that the Government did them a massive favour by pushing through Brexit ...
Half an hour into the queue at the car rental, I'm still bemused at how each transaction appears to be a bespoke, anguished negotiation between a tourist and someone seemingly bewildered to be asked to provide a car, of all things. Why isn't it two minutes max?
On the BBC Katya Adler is clear that, from the EU point of view, the weakness in the UK bargaining position is not the threat of parliament stopping no deal, but our utter lack of a decent alternative to the backstop
I actually think that to write this ungrammatically is plain rude. Several verbless sentences can be found within this rant, and at one point this causes her, unintentionally, to call Boris Johnson unforgivable. Ffs
"at the World Bank, we did hundreds of investor surveys on what determined their willingness to invest in a country...Low taxes and enterprise zones were always near the bottom" via
@FT
For some reason I just can't understand, that broadcast said very little about non pharmaceutical interventions, such as limiting large gatherings indoors
I don't know what's the obsession with making this or that 'work like Netflix', we already have something that works like Netflix, it's called "Netflix".
The point of public service broadcasting is to fill gaps...
Imagine, for one minute, that the Chancellor had to announce *all the details* of what public services have to do in order to find an extra £20bn of "savings" in a few years' time - and not just the nice things he can do with £20bn today 1/
2016: "Brexit will make you richer! Cheaper food! Well funded health care! A prosperous trading nation!"
2024: "oh you wanted *tangible* benefits did you, you philistine? How low! There's more to life than being able to afford dinner"
Goodness: on
@BBCRadio4
I've just heard Fraser Nelson say of the Conservatives' tax claim "they seem to think they have a licence to lie during election campaigns", which is off-the-scale disrespect for a Spectator editor... 1/
Editor: "I'm tired of us looking anti-Truss"
Writer: "but her performance thus far has been panned everywhere..."
Editor: "don't care. Find something positive to say"
Writer: "can I set the bar really low?"
Editor: "sure"
Writer:
My overall verdict:
- Truss is more sincere than I expect. She really, really believes this stuff.
- Against that, she is madder than I expected. She really, really believes this stuff.
Some of what she believes is internally consistent but still nuts imho: 1/
Truss: "we were deliberately careful about discussing public spending. The politics is difficult"
Translation: we obfuscated the implications of our plans because people would have hated it and realized it is incredibly unworkable
I honestly wonder if the Rwanda policy deserves study as the stupidest ever to be pushed in the UK.
Perfectly calibrated to repel centrists; wind up furious right-wingers; and obviously do next to nothing about the actual issue. Also wasting govt time massively. Incredible.
Serious question: what are the worst actually completed "white elephants" in the UK? AFAIK the ones that were *feared* to be white elephants - Jubilee line, Crossrail, Eurotunnel, etc? - we now regard as a thoroughly good thing 1/
It's taken a war and global pandemic to mask the debut of the worst policy for small company exports ever conceived by a UK government- via
@pmdfoster
1/2...
Braverman's letter may be the lowest-class event I can recall in politics. It isn't a 'zinger'. Geoffrey Howe's quietly devastating speech was a zinger. This on the other hand was pure crude aggression.
"to many foreign observers, Britain’s death toll serves as confirmation of deeper-rooted problems: a political culture of hubris and exceptionalism; atrophied public services; inequality and poor health"
People may have their problems with Blair but listen as he perfectly elucidates the real problems with Brexit. Most appear to have forgotten that the reasons people voted for Brexit aren't the reason why we are where we are; that's because Vote Leave and LeaveEU lied and cheated.
As your go-to person for the Wars of the Red Tape, can I put this astonishing figure in context?
50,000 staff, let's call that £30k each, very conservative; this is a skilled job. That's £1.5bn recurring annual wasted spending.
- via
@FT
I'm confused. Can't the PM just ask the Taxpayers' Alliance simply to divulge where all the easy cuts to public spending can be found?
I'm sure they've been telling us for years that there are loads of them
In 1947, Hugh Dalton "revealed a sentence of the budget to a reporter minutes before delivering his budget speech. Prime Minister Clement Attlee accepted his resignation".
In 2024:
Nothing makes my lips curl with contempt harder than the way governments assume something is handled, "because they have a spreadsheet"
Except the mind-blown wonder with which the journalists report it
These are the measures to be announced by the PM at 5, as I understand it. They will last 2 December. And they are, In effect, a new “Tier 4” that will be imposed for a month initially to the whole of England. 1) All pubs and restaurants to close, though takeaways...
My *first day* as a spad, a well known business organisation slaps down on my desk a list of 100 regulatory problems from members. Hooray, I think: actual content.
Leafing through - about 98 were variants on "I find it tiresome having to make arrangements for pregnant staff"
It's always the same. Someone chunters on about how what we need for growth is regulatory change. But they're not sure what. So they issue a plea to business/the public.
It's like asking someone else to provide the punchline to your own stupid joke
-
Tom is probably right. The day after the announcement, the cost of HS2 was raised by unknown billions by the sheer destructive and uncertainty-spreading manner of the thing. Now industry has to wearily look at all these other schemes. It's all a pitiful mess
1/
Labour are, I suspect, very sadly, right not to promise to uncancel HS2. The earth is being salted, the wells are being poisoned. It's probably over. Try again in a decade or two. Hope I'm wrong. Don't reckon I am.
"it has been Scholar’s misfortune to have to confront the Conservatives with the consequences of their own policy choices in terms of lower growth and lower tax receipts" - perfectly put
It's hard to avoid the suspicion that what really lies behind the Truss government's assault on the Treasury is deep embarrassment at the economic consequences of the last 12 years of Conservative party rule. My latest
Trying to compile history's maddest takes without this man's incredible output would be like listing the twenty greatest sonnets without including Shakespeare
.... rather than, say, that a bunch of wilfully self-destructive people perversely chose to vote against their own interests to punish remote, elite others from the privileged south in an irrational spasm of cultural spite and are still somehow enjoying their vandalism
Ok so my daughter Flo says this this the point at which I should try to publicise her singing career. This is her lovely first song. She's releasing another at a gig on 23rd February
Listening to analysis on Radio 4 that there is no identifiable limit to how far energy bills might rise, it's hard to believe the leadership election is taking place in the same country
‘A giant bonfire of taxpayers’ money’: fraud and the UK pandemic loan scheme - The numbers in this story are astronomical. Any other time and this would be the public policy scandal of the decade
"No10 to lay enormous trap, built in the shape of the word TRAP, wrapped in trap-themed paper and advertise the trap in Trap Monthly, Your Magazine for Labour Traps"
Exclusive
@Telegraph
: Downing Street officials are looking at changing the Government’s fiscal rules in an attempt to set a trap for Labour over borrowing
“I regret voting leave” the owner of one of Devon’s largest fish exporters said he was brainwashed by brexiteers, now his business is facing ruin because of Brexit
I like the "fingers crossed" because it suggests the result on the day may be in doubt, and some pretender to the throne may be lurking. Makes it a bit more watchable.
There is nothing, NOTHING, more pitiful than a government spinning that it's about to transform the economy through an attack on "Red Tape", unless it's the newspaper docilely amplifying it
don't want to sound too like a teenage Corbynista but I wish the people who see AI as an existential risk would apply half as much imagination to what they think might happen if global warming hit 2.5 or 3.0 degrees
I think this is the sort of sharp, unconflicted reporting that has just won the FT that newsroom of the Year award, and not the one from other journalists joyously tweeting out the stunt
Johnson's digger stunt at the JCB factory was great publicity for the company:
so would it be a conflict of interest if it turned out that JCB and/or its chairman Anthony Bamford were big donors to the Conservative party?
This looks like an incredibly serious mistake on the government's side: having a de facto shutdown without allowing insurance clauses to be triggered. Theatres have a huge multiplier for the London economy, and productions don't just grow back like sugar cane
.
@BorisJohnson
has just doomed an entire industry by telling people not to attend the theatre.
By not enforcing a shutdown, production insurance will not apply so producers and shows will go bankrupt, and tens of thousands of people will be without pay.
@hmtreasury
@DCMS
I can't bear this: "yes we have to cut spending because that way we can have competitive taxes and ultimately grow the economy and boost spending".
Do the maths: a £40bn cut in spending would require GDP -every year- to be £100bn higher to compensate.
Does it achieve that? 1/
If you fear a "monstrous coalition", wait till you remember what damage can be done by a narrow, minority-view party sect in full undemocratic control of the executive
🔴Liz Truss will issue a stark warning to Conservative MPs returning to Parliament this week to stop undermining her or face a “monstrous coalition” of Labour and the Scottish National Party
It's always the same. Someone chunters on about how what we need for growth is regulatory change. But they're not sure what. So they issue a plea to business/the public.
It's like asking someone else to provide the punchline to your own stupid joke
-
I'm afraid this bit strips away all conceivable sympathy for the Treasury for me
"We can't afford to fund fair pay rises because we want to cut taxes in election year". Saying the quiet bit out loud ...
2000-2019
Lib Dems: we should transform the economy through renewable energy like wind
people: shut up stupid hippies, learn how to count
2020
Tories: let's do loads of wind, become "Saudi Arabia of wind"
people: woah, visionary, that's more like it
Labour holds a 27pt lead in our latest voting intention poll (16-17 Jan) - their largest lead since Liz Truss was PM
Con: 20% (-2 from 10-11 Jan)
Lab: 47% (+2)
Lib Dem: 8% (-1)
Reform UK: 12% (+2)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
"among the benefits of Brexit, you are now allowed to walk your dog in a park on Tuesdays..."
"um but Minister you're already allowed to wa..."
"PUT IT IN GODDAMYOU"
via
@FT
I guess it was impossible to know at the time, but for future we might want to avoid putting ourselves in a position of maximum weakness and then negotiating. Lesson learned.
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has signaled that she would give the Bank of England a money supply target to ensure it’s “tough on inflation” if she wins the Tory leadership race and becomes Britain’s next prime minister
Saw in the FT today that local authority income is down 60% since 2010. With all the chatter about Levelling Up, I'm constantly surprised the whole conversation isn't dominated by that fact
However badly you've messed up, have you ever messed up so badly that your former headmaster writes into the Times to bemoan his failure to have done something about it? No? you're doing OK
An excellent letter in The Times this morning from
@ClaughtonJohn
— who, if memory serves, combined his work as a master at Eton with writing cricket reports for the Independent on Sunday.
anyone with eight or nine hours free today, go round to the Express and explain the difference between levels and rates of change. You'll need crayons, sock puppets,, plenty of haribo sweets as rewards. Good luck
There is no amount of dunking on libertarian perma-tax-cut think tanks that is excessive, imho. They have been sneering at the centrist consensus for decades, with no thought whatsoever for the real world consequences if their policies were enacted. It's part of learning
I still consider the noblest 10 minutes of my life those I spent in 2015 arguing at the FT leader conference that we endorse Miliband in the election, because a. his fiscal plans were clearly less insane than Osborne's b. he didn't threaten a stupid referendum ...
Rishi Sunak reveals forecasts suggesting coronavirus will leave the economy 3% smaller in 2025 than previously expected.
That is *huge*. Almost half a Brexit.
The Conservatives are literally going to waste years arguing about loyalty to the Rwanda Policy as a mark of purity. Attacking people who call it bullshit. For something is ineffective at its very core.
Many former Conservative voters stayed at home in protest at high taxes, lack of control of our borders, and too much local and national government interference in their lives.
We're going to get through an entire conference season without the slightest inquiry as to how over 100,000 people died and the UK experienced one of the worst death rates of any developed nation, aren't we? The learning lessons phase was basically measured in microseconds.
The One Nation Tories have far more reason to object to the Rwanda bill, and are caving.
The ERG types have been given an incredibly hardline bill, and are rebelling for more.
The Conservative dynamic since 2013, in a nutshell.
Stages of lockdown scepticism I've seen:
- Pandemic over, relax harder (Aug)
- so what if cases are rising, this isn't exponential (Sep)
- Well it's deaths that matter, no one is dying in Sweden
- OK so it's bad but I think Vallance exaggerated
-there's nothing we could have done