Sky Kalkman @Sky_Kalkman Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Sky Kalkman

@Sky_Kalkman

4,382

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1,540

Following

276

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9,768

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Baseball fan, lime liker. I ask a lot of questions.

Rochester, NY

https://t.co/spEbNjxYwh

Joined February 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

Pinned Tweet

@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

I wrote an article exploring SEAGER, trying to understand what makes it tick, and creating a simpler version that doesn't require advanced modeling (r=.72). SEAGER isn't just fancy Z-O Sw%, and I think it predicts ISO by finding hitters who are feared. Link in next tweet.

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Last Seen Profiles

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

League Avg: 50% I'm dying.

@IE_MLB

Inside Edge

5 months

The Tigers have scored first in 60% of their games this season, T-7th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%. #RepDetroit

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

@GShaneMorris You should try meeting some people who aren't your children.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

My opinion on whether Kershaw should have finished the game: I would have loved to watch Johan Santana pitch like Johan Santana for a few more years.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

10 months

The non-nerds should just treat Ohtani's contract as 10/$450M and move on.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Favorite chart:

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@matan_writes

Matan K

5 months

New Post up on Medium: Some interesting preliminary thoughts on MLB's new public bat tracking data. Inside is some data on swing length and perfomance vs high velocity, the consistency of Giancarlo Stanton's bat speed and more...Link 👇.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

@sdut That's an awful opinion. Growing salaries are a signal a league is popular and doing well. See: NFL, NBA, international football, etc. Sports leagues make tons of money *because fans love them and spend lots of money on them*. Stop schilling for owners who make 100x more.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

@IZigger77 Glad to have you fighting for creating a fair market for college athletes and abolishing the draft then!

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

6 months

@kateefeldman We surveyed out fantasy baseball league this spring and consensus was 38.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

I’m 44 and was diagnosed yesterday with ADHD, specifically the Inattentive type. It's a bit of a shock, as I have zero hyperactive tendencies, was a great student (until college) and was always [too] well-behaved. But after reading about the symptoms, it fits me to a T… (1/N)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

A simple measure of plate discipline is ZoneSw% - OOZSw%. Swinging at strikes is good, swinging at balls is bad. By that measure, the Pirates are blowing everyone else away in YoY improvement from 2022 to 2023. Biggest losers? The White Sox and Royals.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

If you're a Python person and want to calculate and plot arm angles, this is for you.

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@TrevorThrash

Trevor

4 months

@Sky_Kalkman @bymichaelrosen I was finally able to circle back to this tonight. Cleaned it up and threw the code into some functions... all you need is BaseballSavant data for input. Hopefully this is helpful. Let me know if you catch anything that needs to be fixed

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

@coL_Amazonian Oh, permanents stolen FROM you!

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 months

In other words, the Twins haven't given 300 PAs to anyone who's been a below average hitter.

@TJStats

Thomas Nestico

2 months

Worst wRC+ by Team

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

We got a new rug today, and three people said the rug really ties the room together and *none of them have seen The Big Lebowski*. It's killing me.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

@OldHossRadbourn More like .4 hits per game, but I'll give you that math is hard on an abacus.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

I'm fine with MLB teams being mediocre. By definition many teams will be mediocre. It's entertainment, mediocre teams are entertaining. I'm not ok with teams not trying. I'm not ok with teams valuing money over winning. Reward trying, find the entertainment in mediocre baseball.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

6 months

I would like to see pitch location plots that show secondary locations as if they moved like the pitcher's primary fastball.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Yes, I started a Substack. I'm just going to treat it like a (free) blog. Subscribe or don't, I will share anything I write here on Twitter. I welcome your feedback. /cc @NotTheBobbyOrr

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Exploring the power of SEAGER

skykalkman.substack.com

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

It's 2023. DH Josh Donaldson steps to the plate with two runners on base, his Diamondbacks down by a run. What the hell, you think, I'd much rather watch the pitcher try to lay down a bunt. You turn on season 19 of Grey's Anatomy instead.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

@chrisalbon It's also a risk/reward issue. What's the upside if you're right and the downside if you're wrong and how often do you expect to be right. The time committed to being more certain can often be better sleeve on new analysis, or follow-up after a test.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

Going to be a long layoff until the World Series starts. Both teams might lose.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

Also, Kershaw not getting to complete his perfect game can readily be blamed on the owners' greedy lockout.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

@david_j_roth Is this the first recorded instance of "wearing adult diapers to own the libs"?

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

@bkabak From another angle, think about how many more murder suspects these two cops could have caught if they weren't just standing around a turnstile on a daily basis.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

@IE_MLB 🤣

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

A look at team offensive performance so far this year, by wRC+ (all hitting events, no sequencing, adjusted for ballpark.) Yellow highlights: - LOL Rays - Red Sox! Rays-ization coming to fruition? - A's offense is not bad! - Mariners and Astros disappointing - LOL Guardians

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

The greatest trick the non-nerds ever pulled was convincing people that understanding middle school algebra makes you a nerd.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

Listen, I will grant that we don't need* more public Stuff+ models, but for the love of god could one of them please be readily available on a pitch-level basis? It ain't public if you're just teasing the aggregated results.

@DolphHauldhagen

Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain

@DolphHauldhagen

6 months

jared jones' fastball grade by stuff model stuff: 121 stuff+: 119 stuffPlus: 114 stuff++: 116 RVstuff: 130 stuff_adj: 111 stuff_crust: 118 dolph_stuff: 112 stuph: 116 stufffffffff: 115 stuff100: 122 wow

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

@BrentToderian @modacitylife For those asking about bike thefts -- daily bikes are not super valuable and there are a zillion of them (1.3 bikes per person vs 0.3 in US.) Lower motivation for thefts and lower probability of having yours stolen.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

@NPR Closed to *cars*, open to people, bikes, business, etc.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

@cg_410 @Baer_Bill Just makes me respect the BBWAA more

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

@joe_sheehan Like the triple, the real apology is the hardest part of the cycle.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

"One away from Ruth" is a hell of a phrase.

@CespedesBBQ

Céspedes Family BBQ

2 years

objectively correct reaction from Luis Perdomo

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

Your logical fallacies are: 1. False dichotomy 2. Strawman 3. Appeal to emotion 4. Appeal to authority 5. Personal bias Points for efficiency, I guess.

@BrendanKutyNJ

Brendan Kuty 🧟‍♂️

4 years

Ex- #Yankees 1B Mark Teixeira on ESPN today: “I would rather make pennies on the dollar and give hope to people and play baseball than not make anything and lose an entire year off their career.”

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

Covid vaccine #1 in the books!

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Stuff+ models correctly account for the context of the ball-strike count. But I wonder if they over-weight it. For example, two-strike counts are high leverage. Whiff pitches get rewarded. But should that one pitch trump others, or should it be de-leverages, like WPA -> WPA/LI?

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

I think I'm obliged by Twitter TOS to share a photo of our new puppy, Olive...

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Finishing up an article translating Stuff+ to ERA and wOBA scales. Would like to make sure the numbers below are correct. Feedback welcome (or additional models.) Final will have links. /cc @enosarris @Pitching_Bot @srbrown70 @blandalytics @TJStats @pitchprofiler @DrummeyDylan

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

Just published an article about converting Stuff+ to runs and the ERA and wOBA scales, including reasons you would want to do that even after the creators went through all the hassle of putting it on the Stuff+ scale in the first place. Link in next tweet.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 months

I believe you can calculate Simple Seager from just Zone%, Z-Sw%, and O-Sw%. YIKES is where the calculations got annoying to write out. (Classic "leave it to the reader" vibes.) Original explanatory article in the next tweet. /cc @TJStats

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

Boosted.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Some of the people who have been fun, inspirational, and/or helpful recently: @srbrown70 @TJStats @Drew_Haugen @enosarris @blandalytics @NotTheBobbyOrr @ajaypatel8_ @EliBenPorat @MaxSportsStudio

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

Y'all are fretting over picking guys who are less popular in the Immaculate Grid, and I'm just trying to remember anyone other than Randy Johnson who played for the Diamondbacks.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

@FIDE_chess So, "we weren't doing enough, good thing the world champion brought the issue into brighter light, and now we will ramp up our anti-cheating efforts."

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

@SuperSkin112 @ericghill @ItsMonicaSharp @Redskins "try"

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

Again, if the argument for billionaires making so much money is that they carry the risk, then they need to carry the risk. You can't have it both ways.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

The owners would hold less leverage if you didn't give them billions of dollars to build their stadiums.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

Mind drifts, sidetracked, difficulty getting started on tasks, lose motivation to finish, unorganized, and feel overwhelmed by complex or multiple tasks. Apparently bright kids can mask their ADHD because they understand and complete work quickly; there’s no *need* for attention.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

Scheduled my vaccine for Thursday!

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

"Things we observe but can't explain" is one of my favorite genres. Always brings to mind the apocryphal story of arguing to shut down the patent office a hundred years ago because we'd already invented everything.

@stevenstrogatz

Steven Strogatz

@stevenstrogatz

2 years

You're probably seen amazing videos of metronomes getting in sync (there are several movies on YouTube with millions of views). But surprisingly the math of how all this works is still up for grabs. Our latest article on this puzzle is freely available at

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

Strongly held opinions I don't see that often: 1. Losing the "sanctity of sports" is an easy "price" to pay for social equality of trans people. Like, it's sports. 2. Of course felons should be able to vote. Otherwise you just throw all dissenters in jail and keep power.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

Guns don't kill people, white nationalists kill people.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

15 days

1. Excellent idea 2. Everyone having a "good" bullpen demonstrates that WPA overrates bullpens, and therefore relievers, and therefore closers.

@GoCubs49

Steven

15 days

How have team components contributed to their overall record? I broke up win probability added by hitting, SP, and RP for each MLB team ordered by best to worst win percentage.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

Hunter Pence is playing in a Magic: The Gathering tournament in New Jersey this weekend.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 months

Looks like what I'd guess to be a histogram of all run scoring. 1st inning is top of lineup. 5/6/7 is tired SP, third time vs SP, or worst RPs. 2/3/4 is bottom of lineup and prime SP. 8/9 is best RPs.

@Brooks_Gate

BrooksGate

3 months

here is which inning each team has scored the most runs in this season

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

I wish more people would write *about* the implications of their Stuff+ models. There's an article or two about the model development, and then tons of content using its results on the player level. But there's cool stuff in between, about what makes for good/bad pitches.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

Ranger Suarez has "struggled" his past two starts, against two suspect offenses in Miami and Washington. But those two teams are actually good lineups against lefties. Miami is 4th best with a 123 wRC+ this year, about as good as Tampa Bay, and Wash has a 107 wRC+.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

I strongly believe Tucupita Marcano should not be eligible for the Hall of Fame.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

@joe_sheehan Also it has an exemption on being a monopoly. Just-a-Businesses don't get that.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

But if you don't think Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer, you are 100% an idiot. (4/4)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

20% fewer home runs than contact quality would imply. 20%!

@BallparkPal

Ballpark Pal

4 months

Teams are hitting just 1.03 HRs per game this season. The main reason is that the ball isn't flying as far. BPP predicts the result of every ball hit during the year - controlling for weather and park effects. We're now seeing ~20% fewer HRs than contact quality would imply.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

The Economist has Biden at 98% to win the the most votes in the next presidential election. That there's doubt he won't be the next president is just absurd. Fix our democracy asap.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

Super interesting, uh, stuff! 1. Multiple fastball use is up. Primary assigned by handedness. 2. Cutters more valuable, sweepers and 4S less valuable 3. Fastballs have non-linear gains 96+ mph 4. 2S > FF until 97 mph

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@DrivelineBB

Driveline Baseball

4 months

Check out the updates to our Stuff+ model in this new blog post from Baseball Operations Coordinator Jack Lambert🙌

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

26.5 hours of cycling/running in January. No alcohol or caffeine. Eating well. Cut job hours by 20%. Started with a new therapist. Yeah, feeling absolutely great, let's keep this going.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

Ok, let's do some "greatest living ballplayer" hot takes... If it's Bonds, it was Bonds before Willie passed away, too. If it's a pitcher, it's Randy. Then Maddux. Nolan Ryan was a compiler. Koufax was an in-season compiler. Blyleven's case is just as good. It might be Trout.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

@WaltHickey Interesting how flat Warren's spread is, especially among the frontrunners.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

@billjamesonline Indiscriminately? Get out of here.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

Land doesn't get Covid, people get Covid.

@kylegriffin1

Kyle Griffin

4 years

Mike Pence and Secretary Azar have said that only 3% or 4% of counties in the U.S. are seeing a surge in coronavirus cases. But they and other officials are skirting a key fact: More than 20% of Americans live in those relatively few counties.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

Luis Gil changeup Stuff+ scores this year: tjStuff: 96 enoStuff: 91 StuffPro: 0.9 PitchProfiler: 100 Mostly below avg. And then botStuff says it's a 73, a ++ pitch. (And might be the closest to right?)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

Unfortunately, Trump can't release his copy of the search warrant while he's being audited.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

"And we're going to stop public funding of stadiums, too!"

@RepJeffDuncan

Rep. Jeff Duncan

4 years

In light of @MLB 's stance to undermine election integrity laws, I have instructed my staff to begin drafting legislation to remove Major League Baseball's federal antitrust exception.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

So let's say Yadier Molina's pre-game prep, pitcher training, pitch calling, in-game tweaks, etc. turned every Cardinals' starting pitcher from a #4 into a #2 . Not only is he an inner circle Hall of Famer, but he's worth $50M+ a year as a coach.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

This drawn out twitter goodbye is more awkward than Baby It's Cold Outside.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

Two keys to advancing at and enjoying work: 1. Identify, leverage and thank the hell out of those people who are awesome at their jobs and helpful to anyone to who asks. 2. Become one of those people.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

Here's a AAA line: .316/.357/.624 -- that's Mickey Moniak at Salt Lake, good for a... 122 wRC+. Similarly, Jo Adell has 12 HRs and a .300/.395/.709 line for a... 147 wRC+. I'm curious if minor league teams in extreme environments limit prospect development.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 months

@choice_fielder Find someone to love you as much as DRC+ loves not striking out.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

It's been a while since I was interested in writing more than a few tweets about baseball, and I really enjoyed it. Thanks to the fun community here on Twitter, especially the Stuff+ crowd that I've been harassing over the past year. I like asking questions.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

10 days

This is the stat I've been waiting to see. Judge has been absurd, so much better than anyone else. Depending how you treat quality of competition, he *might* have had the best three-season hitting stretch ever.

@bymichaelrosen

Michael Rosen

@bymichaelrosen

10 days

aaron judge, 2022 - 2024: 202 wRC+ hitters with >202 wRC+ over a three-year span, all-time: babe ruth ted williams mickey mantle barry bonds

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Two Rays getting the most screwed on bad strikes, and also have faced some of the best Stuff+ so far this year per @enosarris ' article. Jeez.

@blandalytics

Kyle Bland

5 months

@Sky_Kalkman Here's the top 10 by excess Called Strikes, based on the PLV Called Strike probabilities. Langford has the 2nd highest false positive rate of the group.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 years

Election Night cocktail menu.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

10 months

@chess24com Can someone explain to me what he's risking? (Honest question.) I would have thought it's the other way around -- worth the risk of losing ratings pts on the chance that he makes the Candidates...?

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

@DSzymborski @fangraphs Interesting numbers, but when are you going to release their WAR totals for the second half of the season?

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

"I am a professional communicator and stand against more granular, precise and descriptive terminology."

@Patrick_Reusse

Patrick Reusse

@Patrick_Reusse

1 year

Sharkman & I are in agreement: We’re ready to vomit over this “sweeper” craze in MLB broadcasting. Who died & gave a few bored weenies the power to create a new pitch last winter? It’s a slider, dammit.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

The new BPro player pages are sweet, with lots of detailed info like DRA and tunneling. Easy to see why Jake Junis is breaking out:

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Almost done writing an actual baseball article with actual research. First in a long time, enjoying it. Tease: includes a simple version of Seager that correlates at r=.72.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

Connor Joe is among the most improved in swinging at Meatballs while letting OOZ pitches go. Suwinski and a couple other Pirates, too. Organizational effort in the off-season?

@fangraphs

FanGraphs Baseball

1 year

Mentored by Phil Plantier, Connor Joe Is Pittsburgh’s Hottest Hitter

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

So my guess is that bat speed data has significantly shortened the amount of time needed to discern a hitter's platoon splits. The priors on a player like this are not league avg platoon ratios.

@sandwich_pick

Will Harris

5 months

another fun part of bat tracking is seeing two totally different approaches for switch hitters (this is Ketel Marte)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

"Rights should be rooted in history" doesn't rally jive with the declaration of independence (or common sense.)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

9 months

Been enjoying Twitter ads more now that they all come with community notes explaining how they're drop-shipping ripoffs.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

1 year

Did you know that "SAT" doesn't stand for anything anymore? It was Aptitude then Assessment, but turns out the SAT doesn't assess scholastic aptitude very well. It mostly just measures socioeconomic status, which, well, makes this opinion piece pretty wrong.

@nytimes

The New York Times

1 year

In Opinion “Lots of kids use the SAT or ACT to get a boost out of a bad school,” writes Ross Douthat. The “children of the upper class could be beneficiaries of the SAT’s decline, while children trying to climb could lose a crucial ladder.”

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

4 months

I just want people to know that I Liked this tweet. It is Likeable.

@SamMillerBB

Sam Miller

4 months

takeout slide

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

America, Earth's mercenaries.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 years

Life tip: it's ok to give people gifts they've asked for. They will like the gift, mostly because they told you they would like it. You don't lose points for them telling you they'd like it. (I've learned this the long way, you shouldn't.)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

5 months

Is there a site that tracks how heavy of a bat each hitter uses? Bat MOMENTUM at point of impact is an improvement on bat speed.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

3 years

@mike_petriello Can you put "Hall of Fame voter" in your Twitter profile if you don't actually, you know, vote for the Hall of Fame?

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

6 months

Hmm, I wonder why older generations of homosexuals weren't as public with their homosexuality.

@ANTH0NY_AGUILAR

Anthony Aguilar🇵🇷🇪🇸

@ANTH0NY_AGUILAR

6 months

@RealRyanWhorton Sorry, but it's true.. the older generation of homosexuals were more comfortable with their sexuality they were proud of being gay they weren't forcing people to accept them they weren't crying victim. Actually, the older generation had more respect for themselves.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

8 months

I've had a gut feeling that depth charts overrate how many innings a "reliable" starting pitcher will get, so I decided to run some numbers. I looked at seasons from 2010 through 2019 (avoiding the 2020 season). Here's what I see... (1/x)

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

I get nostalgic about the Beyond the Box Score crew circa 2010 (?) like every six months, but now seems like a decent time for that, too. Cool people, cool work, cool time of my life.

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@Sky_Kalkman

Sky Kalkman

2 years

Playoff rounds should just be a four game exhibition match, with the team with the better regular season record always moving on.

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