Natural Phenom STEVE @srbrown70 Twitter profile

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Natural Phenom STEVE

3 months

The big day has finally arrived: introducing StuffPro and PitchPro! Getting these pitching metrics ready for prime time has taken a ton of effort from the team, and we're excited to share them with you!

Introducing StuffPro and PitchPro | Baseball Prospectus

Get to know the newest pitching metrics at BP.

www.baseballprospectus.com

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Last Seen Profiles

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@doximity

@halukbilginer_

@rubytuesday__

Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

Dansby has struck out in over a third of his plate appearances this season and somehow has still been a top 20 player in all of baseball by fWAR

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@srbrown70

5 years

Im dying

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@srbrown70

9 months

ok yeah this is nuts. 95 mph from a guy who averages 97 is way worse than 95 from a guy who averages 94

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@srbrown70

9 months

there are three pitch types and they are: straight, wiggly, and bendy

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@srbrown70

3 years

🐿️✨America Is Musty✨🐿️

@DragonflyJonez

3 years

This woman is so pure, I was so invested in this story I was so excited for the finished product.

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@srbrown70

2 years

A trade with the Athletics is ultimately going to be how both Freddie and Dansby found out they weren’t staying with the Braves

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

6 years

@eveewing My wife and I will call out what we’re doing like we’re getting ready for launch. Me: Seatbelts.. Her: On. Me: iPhone cable.. Her: Engaged. Me: All systems are a go, preparing for ignition in five, four, three....

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@srbrown70

8 months

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

"would you like a 32 y/o for 6 years or an equally good 27 y/o or 8 years?" is pretty straightforward in hindsight

Atlanta Braves

@Braves

2 years

The Atlanta #Braves today signed INF @mattolson21 to an eight-year contract:

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@srbrown70

6 years

@michaelbd so it's Moon's fault Trump doesn't have the capacity to not fall for hyperbole and flattery?

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

7 years

Sounds like the Braves' rotation has a.......... Newcomber.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

7 months

i'm in bpro! i did a huge deep dive into the impact of a pitcher losing a tick in velocity within a game, and much of what i found surprised me

The Value of Relative Velocity | Baseball Prospectus

How much is a half of a mile per hour drop in velocity worth? I wondered that question this season as I watched Spencer Strider go from the most dominant pitcher in baseball with bases empty to...

www.baseballprospectus.com

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@srbrown70

1 year

working on some things

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 months

it wasn't just good luck or facing the Marlins; Fried looked truly phenomenal last night. idk what a hitter is expected to do when someone is locating six plus pitches perfectly

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

5 months

Incredibly excited about this opportunity! Couldn't ask for a better group to work with, and can't wait to share what we've got

Harry Pavlidis, one dog and no parodies.

@harrypav

5 months

Some exciting news from R&D at @baseballpro . We've joined forces with @srbrown70 . Steve has created the best in class 'pitch stuff' metric and we'll be sharing that (and more) over at this season. Follow @baseballpro and @pitchinfo to be ready for launch.

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@srbrown70

2 years

i watched this at 4 in the morning and it took me like six times to realize what it was showing. this is nuts

Rob Friedman

@PitchingNinja

2 years

Sandy Alcántara, 98mph Sinker and 93mph Changeup, Overlay.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

4 years

It may be petty but I’m still not over Freddie dragging Acuña in public last October while playing like shit because he’d been covering up an injury for months.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

7 years

"Your daughter will always love you, but my wife will leave me." - @RadioFreeTom

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

1 year

as if it weren't already too unfair for the hitters

Rob Friedman

@PitchingNinja

1 year

Spencer Strider's Changeup whiffs from yesterday.

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@srbrown70

7 years

@Communism_Kills @tekiek Look at the marks on it. Those aren't normal driving marks; someone did a burnout on top of it.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

Dansby really hit us with “the true World Series champs are the friends we made along the way”

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

4 years

also makes the good point about throwing breaking stuff high

Rob Friedman

@PitchingNinja

4 years

Rich Hill's Curveball Grip. Thanks again to @GlendonRusch for hosting this interview with him, me and the Twitterless Dick Mountain🍆⛰️

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@srbrown70

5 years

Good morning, Braves Country! Dan Uggla had as valuable of a career with us as Nick Markakis has

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

9 months

all the relationships between spray angle, launch angle, exit velo, and run value:

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

Oakland has a home run park factor of 83 for LHH. ATL is 109. Matt is gonna mash

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

5 years

I have a reaaaalllllyyyyyyy high threshold for considering an athlete to be an asshole, but Yadi Molina pole vaults right the fuck over it

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@srbrown70

6 years

@BBCAfrica @JasonPStarling this is insanely impressive work

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@srbrown70

5 months

@EliBenPorat part of it is aesthetics- guys with an 80 hit tool are fun to watch- but also 33rd all time in fWAR from age 27 on plus 10 gold gloves. also think cultural impact should play a part in voting, and there's no denying that for him.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 months

I think public stuff models are missing something about these "bridge" cutters (movement between a pitcher's FA and SL) that some teams have figured out. StuffPro, Stuff+, and PitchingBot all see his FC as merely average, but the results are solid and the Yankees believe in it.

Gary Phillips

@GaryHPhillips

2 months

Here's a story about Carlos Rodon's cutter... sort of. Really, it's a look at how technology is used to develop new pitches so rapidly, and whether that's a good thing. Insight here from Rodón, Matt Blake, Gerrit Cole & more. 🆓 @NYDNSports | #Yankees

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

9 months

reminder that the winner of a kaggle competition for predicting likelihood of a swing found that swing decisions on non-fastballs are based on if the pitch at release looks like it would or would not be a strike if it were a fastball with average movement

2023-05-19 xswing notebook

Explore and run machine learning code with Kaggle Notebooks | Using data from Predict if a pitch will result in a swing

www.kaggle.com

Rob Friedman

@PitchingNinja

9 months

Zac Gallen, Elevated Fastball (ball) and Knuckle Curve (backwards K), Individual Pitches + Overlay Why you might take the Knuckle Curve.

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@srbrown70

9 months

full grid of xwOBA against a pitcher's primary fastball by it's velo relative to their average FB velo that day (columns) and by that pitcher's average FB velo that day (rows) on average hitters perform like Matt Olson on 95 mph fastballs from pitchers who typically throw 96

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

5 months

@EliBenPorat but also couldn't play defense. i think if Ichiro had spent his whole career in MLB he would have crested 80 WAR

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@srbrown70

2 years

Everyone give a warm welcome to Georgia Rose and August Rae Sutton-Brown!! Mom and babies are healthy and doing great! I couldn't be happier or more excited about finally getting to meet them. They are perfect in every way

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

9 months

no one is addressing the real issue with this tweet: Marc should be dividing by 1.4 instead of multiplying by 0.6, which would put Ronnie at 50 SB

Marc Ryan

@MarcRyanOnAir

9 months

Folks, you don’t expect us to blindly acknowledge a bogus record, right? Ronald Acuna Jr. is a transcendent talent. But he’s not the first 40-70 guy. He’s the LATEST 40-40 guy. Stolen bases are ⬆️ 40% this season. 70 SB’s - 40%=42 swipes Love Ronald, but wake up! #ForTheA

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@srbrown70

5 years

"If we give money to try to help the poor, they'll just waste it on stupid stuff"

Alec MacGillis

@AlecMacGillis

5 years

The share of houses being built with 10 or more bathrooms has gone up nearly seven-fold since the 1970s. "If he were so inclined, Alessandro Giacometti could stay two weeks at his Southampton, N.Y., home and use a different bathroom every day."

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@srbrown70

9 months

in light of ken doing post-season format analysis, i am again resharing this

Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

3 years

we should all re-memorize this every year on October 1st

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

3 years

we should all re-memorize this every year on October 1st

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 months

Chris Sale has been the fourth most valuable pitcher in baseball this season

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

3 months

STUFFPRO LEADERBOARDS ARE LIVE! Welcome to your new one-stop-shop for pitch evaluations. We've provided a ton of exciting features and information, so let's dive straight in to see what you can find 🧵

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

btw was able to quickly run the numbers on strider's start tonight

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

9 years

Met a new shuttle driver at work today. Told him my name. "Man, I used to have a friend with that same name. Called him Doo Doo Brown. HA!"

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

6 months

had it in the back of my head for a while to recreate this and finally got around to it

Cameron Grove

@Pitching_Bot

2 years

Pitch targets should change based on the level of command that a pitcher has. This gif shows how the expected run value of targeting a particular location varies as the pitcher is more likely to miss their spot. Notice how the backup/high slider is more reliant on command.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 months

something to keep an eye on: Luis Guillorme's fastball has been the worst pitch in baseball this season according to both StuffPro and PitchPro (min 20 pitches thrown)

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

10 months

interesting tidbit here. I remember reading that the Blue Jays do the same thing. anyone who has a stuff model has the framework to make a swing decision model too, so not surprising teams have this, just love the idea of an app to review after games.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

has anyone written about whether fatigue affects stuff or command more?

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

1 year

I wrote a blog post digging into the Stuff+ team switching debate that I hope you all will read! I tried to make it accessible to the lay person while still providing adequate depth to the discussion. Please let me know your thoughts!

Stuff Models, Team Switchers, and Modeling Balls in Play

Baseball Prospectus published an article this week evaluating the performance of their recently updated hitting and pitching metrics, along with some comparisons to other popular metrics. I recomme…

bravesgeneralstore.wordpress.com

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

11 months

taking a break from the Strider show to toot my own horn: no matter how you prefer to run your correlations, my version of Stuff+ predicts next-season ERA better than any available public metric

Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain

@DolphHauldhagen

11 months

"i don't know who needs to hear this but" here are correlations (r²) with next-year ERA (60+ IP in current and next year, n=305) 0.216 Stuff+ 0.197 pitchingbot stuff 0.185 Pitching+ 0.144 SIERA 0.131 bot overall 0.101 pFIP 0.099 bot ERA 0.091 xFIP 0.090 pFIP_EV 0.074 FIP

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

1 year

seems more likely to me that folks consistently overperforming their xwOBA is due to things xwOBA doesn't consider- like batted ball spin or spray direction- rather than confidence. interesting piece nonetheless

An Iota of xwOBA: Does Overperformance Improve Confidence?

Paul Goldschmidt’s resurgence last year looked like a mirage. But this season, his contact quality is better than ever.

blogs.fangraphs.com

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

4 months

my latest in bpro, in which i boldly tell a two-time cy young winner to throw more strikes

The Problem with Blake Snell's Command is His Approach | Baseball Prospectus

Baseball is back. On February 14, pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training, and the reports of players being in the Best Shape Of Their Life have started pouring in. Absent from these...

www.baseballprospectus.com

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

2 years

holy shit this is cool. thanks @enosarris for featuring some of my work

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@srbrown70

2 months

Observed vs Modeled Swing Lengths: A Story of Controls

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@srbrown70

8 years

SHE SAID YES, FAM So. Freaking. Excited.

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@srbrown70

9 months

first was on a much lower and steeper pitch than the others, which in my head makes me think less backspin? wonder if including pitch height and/or VAA on a p(homer) model with EV and LA would capture this

David Adler

@_dadler

9 months

Three Alex Bregman fly balls 103.2 mph / 35° -- ALCS Game 1 flyout 102.2 mph / 35° -- Crawford Boxes HR 102.5 mph / 36° -- Crawford Boxes HR

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@srbrown70

2 months

at some point you wonder if d'arnaud has passed mike piazza as the best hitting catcher of all time

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@srbrown70

1 month

one thing that makes it difficult to assess the value of swinging hard is that hitters will slow their swing down if they realize they got fooled. so it's not simply that fast swings create more value but also that swings that were on track to create more value stay fast.

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@srbrown70

2 years

@tressiemcphd we discovered our yorkie likes playing a game where we hide a piece of food in our hand and let her scratch our hand to get it. now at night she stands by her food bowl and yells at us until we come play the game

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@srbrown70

6 months

twitter people are in fact real people

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@srbrown70

4 months

the best thing about snell signing is it allows me to shamelessly plug my piece again

The Problem with Blake Snell's Command is His Approach | Baseball Prospectus

Baseball is back. On February 14, pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training, and the reports of players being in the Best Shape Of Their Life have started pouring in. Absent from these...

www.baseballprospectus.com

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@srbrown70

4 months

there's a dril tweet for everything

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@srbrown70

30 days

Schwellenbach's entire StuffPro page makes me very excited

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@srbrown70

2 years

@janecoaston apparently that weight was also the only way she could retain her title against her competitor, who was actively cheering for her as she pulled it for the win

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@srbrown70

8 months

Top 25 hitters with at least 150 PA in 2023 by Decision Quality and Batter Adjusted Decision Quality. Freeman and Seager stand out the most, per discussions from last night, in that they're too aggressive for an average hitter but perfectly aggressive given their skillset.

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@srbrown70

4 years

this braves team is the most fun team in baseball but feel like you'd never know it watching this broadcast

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@srbrown70

1 year

AUGUST SAID HER FIRST WORD TONIGHT! Repeated “hello” to me!

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@srbrown70

6 years

Just met my Navy Seal neighbor and talked to him about his dog Emperor who has a bronze star and found buried bombs in Iraq. Meanwhile I was constantly adjusting my glasses and holding our five pound dog Ellie who was in her pink harness.

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@srbrown70

2 years

@tressiemcphd "A lot" = one family member he talked to but who's still gonna vote Trump in '24

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

8 months

ICYMI, bpro ran a piece yesterday highlighting a new decision quality metric, SEAGER. I wanted to see how well it compared to my Decision Quality metric, so I recreated the methodology and confirmed it does outperform my method pretty substantially.

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

10 months

Elder has such a tiny little window where his stuff plays, I know baseball is weird and random but it is insane his ERA is still as low as it is

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Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

3 months

The Strider curveball data is in, and my god it is glorious

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@srbrown70

10 months

ERA assumes the pitcher was sole contributor to all outs. FIP assumes fielders are the sole contributors to BIP outs. What if there was another metric that apportioned credit appropriately and methodically between pitcher, fielder, and park for settling Cy Young discussions??

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@srbrown70

2 months

this is a really cool visual

Jack Lambert

@jacklambert__

2 months

Dead zone moves like crazy as arm slot changes!

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@srbrown70

7 years

Folks.............. I'm getting married today

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@srbrown70

9 months

every time i try to dig into this shit

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@srbrown70

2 months

bridge cutters are my new obsession

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@srbrown70

1 year

another excellent piece here from @Drew_Haugen and @bgrosnick . pitching_bot found similar results in that most of what folks ascribe to tunneling can be explained by pitch location

Pitcher Swing Decisions: Sliders

When a hitter is choosing to swing at a pitch, how much does the pitcher affect the choice? And is it better to tunnel or to locate your slider?

downonthefarm.substack.com

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@srbrown70

7 months

this is incredibly exciting for me, i've been reading bpro for years and years and it's surreal seeing my name on an article there. please check it out! it's technical and in depth, but i worked hard to make it accessible to a lay audience as well

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@srbrown70

10 years

Hot dog listed as sandwich. @Mobute @cdgoldstein http://t.co/hotMGEAYFq

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@srbrown70

5 months

ready to go full nerd

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@srbrown70

3 months

the star in the top left is how StuffPro rated the strikeout pitch, Seager didn't stand a chance. Doesn't even fit within my axis limits

Rob Friedman

@PitchingNinja

3 months

Chris Sale absolutely abusing Seager. 😲

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@srbrown70

7 years

Strong first paragraphs from Rothkopf (he's not wrong)

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@srbrown70

2 months

And (unsurprisingly given Pitch of the Day results) Aaron Bummer's sweeper is the highest rated pitch of the season with a minimum of 50 pitches thrown

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@srbrown70

9 months

s/o to Kyle, here's that piece from *13 years ago* young folks need to reread the classics

Lose a tick, gain a tick

What happens when a pitcher loses or gains speed on his fastball?

tht.fangraphs.com

Kyle Boddy

@drivelinekyle

9 months

@srbrown70 The logic is rooted in Mike Fast’s seminal article of losing a tick and gaining one - and the effect is amplified as you cross thresholds of velocity bands. Simplest is to just use a modifier rather than rebuild a model imo

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@srbrown70

3 years

@EricLevitz SSC is like Lyman Stone in blog form: sometimes you learn something really interesting you wouldn’t have read elsewhere, sometimes you groan, but every single time you wish there were 4200 fewer words

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@srbrown70

2 months

Elder is my go-to example of why we should be careful crafting narratives from pitchers whose results don't match their peripherals. I'm the first to admit that every model has blind spots and weaknesses, but baseball is weird and sometimes guys stumble their way into 1.50 ERAs.

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@srbrown70

1 year

Ten simulated seasons for Bryce Elder using outcome probabilities for his pitches from my stuff model. Baseball is weird and random, even for "skill-based" metrics like FIP, so at 200 IP the same guy could have nearly a 1.5+ ERA/FIP range of outcomes by chance alone.

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@srbrown70

9 months

sorry one more nerdery for the rain delay: good catch from Ryan, as some of this could just be measuring the effect of the count: pitchers crank it up with 2 strikes. I also made the same adjustment described in that tweet for times through the order & the effect was still there

Natural Phenom STEVE

@srbrown70

9 months

@RyanCloude great catch, check this out. instead of averaging across raw xwoba for each bucket like before, in this one I averaged across {raw xwoba - [average xwoba in that count] + [average xwoba for that season]} looking at it this way the results are a lot more mixed

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@srbrown70

3 months

Webb was yesterday's best starter according to PitchPro, getting ridiculous movement from his sinker and spotting it perfectly

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@srbrown70

11 months

pissed at myself for laughing at smoltz's footage joke

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@srbrown70

1 year

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@srbrown70

3 years

got my first dose of moderna today

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@srbrown70

9 months

I've shared these before, but this is how well my model performs at predicting the outcome of a pitch, both unadjusted and adjusted for quality of the hitter. the model is really, really good, and includes a ton of info, so it's tempting to say what's left over is noise.

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@srbrown70

6 months

its the weekend baby. youknow what that means. its time to drink precisely one beer and format some heat maps

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@srbrown70

6 years

@BetoORourke @BetseyStevenson @willyraiford gotta admit, this is really well done

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@srbrown70

6 months

@jaseidler tbf i had an opposite takeaway from this: adding spray to an xwOBA metric for a hitter without introducing noise is difficult because spray is already so highly correlated with ev and launch angle.

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@srbrown70

6 months

sam sharpe did an excellent write up on xwOBA a while back, and he addressed there why they didn't include spray in the model

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@srbrown70

9 months

great piece here. the section below reminded me of this piece from Carleton last year, which said that pitchers throw harder when they know they're on a short leash, so it's hard to disentangle that from the decision of when to take them out

Eno Sarris

@enosarris

9 months

Clutch gene? The hot hand? What the numbers say about old-school playoff beliefs

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@srbrown70

3 months

Lots of pretty plots, but if there's one I hope sticks with readers it's this one: A single outing of StuffPro better predicts a pitch's value than a half a season worth of its actual results.

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@srbrown70

5 months

@NotTheBobbyOrr please tell me you used the eyedropper tool in ms paint to get the default ggplot2 colors

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@srbrown70

6 years

Ozzie's been outperforming his expected wOBA, but only really on ground balls. About half of that gap in expected vs observed performance on grounders is to be expected with his sprint speed.

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