$CVNA is down -90% YTD. Plenty of shenanigans on the way up and back down.
We don’t know anything about Carvana, so instead…
... we had our AI 🤖 poke around
Our AI analyst discovered a number of insights, and honed in on 2 individuals in particular. Quick 🧵
Here's the catch:
"227 West Monroe, Suite 4800" is affiliated w/
- Mark Walter
- Walter Family Foundation
- Delaware Life
- CVAN Holdings
- Guggenheim
Is Sonoran REALLY a 3rd Party?
More triangulation on Walter <> Sonoran can be found in this SA post:
1⃣ AI flagged Mark Walter
CEO of Guggenheim Partners, controls CVAN Holdings (anagram?) and Delaware Life (an insurer). CVAN & Delaware Life have been important capital sources (and CVAN owns ~10% of $CVNA!)
And turns out he's accused of insider trading:
Here's where it gets interesting!
Sonoran Auto is a “3rd Party" purchaser of $CVNA receivables. There's no public documentation on who is behind Sonoran
However, from the Master Transfer Agreement, our AI picked up on:
"227 West Monroe, Suite 4800" 👀
🤖 our AI analyst is still under development, but we’re excited w/ insights it's already helped uncover!
We're building tech to augment & empower researchers - not replace. If you'd like to be part of this journey, DMs are open! 👋
FOLLOW for more AI-augmented research to come!
2⃣ AI flagged Thomas Dundon:
Ex-CEO of
@SantanderUSA
, and controls Dundon Capital Partners, DDFS Partnership LP, and others
Apparently, Santander and DDFS were early supporters of DriveTime and Santander led a number of early securitizations
And...
As Warren Buffett put it: “If you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you've got a terrible business. If you've got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you've got a very good business.”
As Lenny Rachitsky put
Are corporate directors breaking the law in plain sight?
Since Oct,
@TheJusticeDept
's antitrust work has led 13 directors to resign.
To pitch-in, our AI 🤖found 200 directors who might be violating the law - in just the Life Sciences alone.
🧵
@JusticeATR
@LauraEdelson2
There’s ~3 kinds of investment edge:
• Informational: you know more
• Analytical: you think better
• Behavioral: you behave better
Most investors have given up on Informational. We know there’s plenty left - and we’re building machines to get it.
you have wonder why so many people don't read the things they need to
great thing about LLMs is they make it much easier for everyone to read / be aware of ALL relevant stuff.. should make everything more efficient & higher quality.. otoh not like it is that hard with keywords
Here is an example of $CHWY 🐶😸
Entering New Markets
Cross-Selling Opportunities
Increasing Market Share
These are 3 of the 100+ Thesis Drivers that can be combined to generate ideas ... at scale.
To generate ideas squarely in your strike zone,
@krishnanc_
has added filters for [Market Cap], [Industry], and [Valuation].
We're reaching a critical point where our machines can automate the entire idea gen process for the first time. More to come 🫡
@539_539
@Colin_ByTheLake
@FoolAllTheTime
BB DS function is much worse than alphasense imo. they've changed managers on that on almost an annual basis and it's still almost unusable.
@realTigerCub
For analysts looking to go even further, we track spin-offs and JVs - both announced and upcoming - and can combine it with other thesis drivers (e.g. new CEO). Our machines can then monitor for that setup and ping you whenever it comes up:
If you had 5 minutes to find companies that have ALL of the following characteristics, could you do it?
+ Strong Culture
+ Fragmented Market
+ Acquisition Strategy
+ Entering New Markets
+ Moats
You can with SixAI 🧵
How do you find companies discussing their moats?
... at scale, every day, and when the word "moat," is never actually mentioned?
This is one thesis driver that can be combined with 100+ others that flags daily for idea gen.
Some examples: 🧵
$LTH
Since our report on $CVNA, we've been building prototypes, speaking to analysts, & iterating.
In the coming weeks, we'll finally share the results of many experiments!
Tomorrow, keep an eye out for an experiment we did on antitrust enforcement 🫡
cc
@JusticeATR
@LauraEdelson2
Here's the catch:
"227 West Monroe, Suite 4800" is affiliated w/
- Mark Walter
- Walter Family Foundation
- Delaware Life
- CVAN Holdings
- Guggenheim
Is Sonoran REALLY a 3rd Party?
More triangulation on Walter <> Sonoran can be found in this SA post:
Big product update will be live for pilot testers on Monday!
If you'd like to build bespoke recommendation engines for idea gen, signup to join pilot here:
Friends: we’re ramping up our ML machines & 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐩!
Please send 3-5 tickers you care about via replies/DM/email (note: we don't invest at all – we build tech!)
If chosen, we’ll show you an early-stage demo for those tickers in ~Jan!
Please like & RT! 🙏
We're so excited to be working with SumZero - the largest network of investment professionals, with a library of ideas that spans 15+ years.
We believe the investment process is ripe for disruption - exploring the future with SumZero and has been a joy!
@SixHQai
is the only idea gen tool - purpose-built for hedge fund analysts - that combines signals you care about to surface actionable investment opportunities
What they're doing with their tech is not only fascinating but incredibly powerful and shouldn't be overlooked 👀
Israel-Palestine is driving
@seanhannity
audience to check out $BYRN, one of the few beneficiaries of this tragic conflict (stock +22% today).
SixAI has been watching for corporate commentary on the ongoing conflict - see thread for what's being picked up:
Feedback Requested!
SixAI now identifies 100s of thesis drivers and synthesizes them into investment cases. Below is what SixAI put together for $GOGO. Would love your feedback on what's right / how our system can improve!
Investment Pitch: Gogo Business Aviation - Soaring into
Requesting Feedback:
SixAI can now identify 100s of thesis drivers and synthesize them into an investment case. Below is what SixAI put together for $ALIT. Would love your feedback on what's right / what our system missed!
Alight: Transforming Into a High-Growth BPaaS Leader:
Per
@breadcrumbsre
's call-out on mgmt incentives at $WRB, some additional mgmt highlights from our machines 👇 Also appears to be a Rates Beneficiary and has embedded Pricing Power.
Feedback welcome!
-----
W.R. Berkley Corporation: Strategic Growth and Leadership in P&C
Energy & Infrastructure
⦁ $IRM Iron Mountain’s data center business signs 124 megawatts faster than expected. "AI actually absorbs a lot of power… what we're selling effectively is capacity or access to power”
⦁ $AXTI AXT anticipates a surge in indium phosphide demand driven
SixAI has begun flagging valuable setups for idea gen from the firehouse of corporate transcripts and filings. Recently, SixAI flagged International Paper $IP
Before reporting this Thursday, 10/26, the company has announced a number of major updates:
@jennablan
@WallStCynic
How might all of the new, emergent tech in AI impact investing and short-selling?
Are there other technologies / alternative data that are exciting and that you’re keeping an eye on?
We've been quiet for a minute now.
Excited to share that we have started tests to evaluate and stretch our AI pipelines. Stay tuned!
(and head to to signup for the latest updates!)
FinGPT: Open-Source Financial LLMs
FinGPT is an open-source LLM for the finance sector. It takes a data-centric approach, providing researchers & practitioners with accessible resources to develop FinLLMs.
paper:
code:
Given the scale of our findings, we created a visualization for our full (anonymized!) dataset here:
🔴= Person
🔵= Company
🔵🔴🔵= red dots b/w 2 blue dots is a potential antitrust violation!
Autodesk $ADSK – Margin Headwinds Abating – Completing Shift to Multi-Year, Annual Contracts
⦁ “… final thing we look forward to is the sort of the mechanical rebuild in our cash flow over the next 2 years as from a trough of this year as we make complete the shift from
AI is being adopted by corporates in very real, tangible ways. Catch-up on what you missed today - from a publisher's view on copyright, to AI helping humans apply for jobs:
More Money
⦁ *Ziff Davis*, notably the fifth largest source of tokens for Google's C4 LLM according to
100+ new investment thesis shared over the final few weeks of '23 into the contest.
A HUGE thank you to the investors in our network that took the time to compete, our 35+ member judges panel and to our partners –
@SixHQai
@KoyfinCharts
and
@vinovest1
Winners coming soon...
@TheJusticeDept
@JusticeATR
@LauraEdelson2
The
@JusticeATR
has been clear – directors and officers are prohibited from serving simultaneously on the boards of competitors. (If Co. A and B compete, it’s illegal for someone to sit on the Boards of both.)
But how would you find this pattern across 1,000s of companies? 🧐
@patrick_oshag
Coming soon 👍 We think most of the financial press and many others are missing the plot on machines that reason. Would love to connect!
(You also follow an alt, and enjoyed meeting you at Cap Camp a while back 👋)
There’s ~3 kinds of investment edge:
• Informational: you know more
• Analytical: you think better
• Behavioral: you behave better
Most investors have given up on Informational. We know there’s plenty left - and we’re building machines to get it.
$CVNA is down -90% YTD. Plenty of shenanigans on the way up and back down.
We don’t know anything about Carvana, so instead…
... we had our AI 🤖 poke around
Our AI analyst discovered a number of insights, and honed in on 2 individuals in particular. Quick 🧵
$MNDY – Major Pricing Lift!
⦁ “Following several months of extensive testing, we recently introduced an updated pricing model ahead of schedule… As part of the rollout, we notified our customers that we'll be updating these prices across our product
Biotech/LifeSci analysts! Come beta-test our top-secret, AI-native, idea-gen prototype!
It works differently from everything that's out there, so feedback from y'all is very important 🙏
Takes ~30min, and we'll send you a $30 gift card - we know your time is valuable! DMs open!
Latest AI commentary from corporates:
⦁ Bank of America's AI 'Erica' Hits 19 Million Users
⦁ Releases Revolutionary Site Generator, Offers Comprehensive Suite of Design Tools
⦁ Verisk Leveraging Gen AI for Summarizing Medical Files, Insurance
🕸️
We’ve been working hard on R&D and case studies - very excited to share some updates with you soon!
In the meantime, sign up for our Labs program:
In Labs, you’ll get our latest updates & test drive prototypes! Hope to see you there 👍
@evfcfaddict
Was so great catching up today
@evfcfaddict
, and thanks for the shoutout!
Very excited to start delivering compelling names for you to dive into. Stay tuned for more - our systems are improving every day!
@vikasxkumarbk
@Keubiko
@scott_matagrano
@John_Hempton
@MMikeMMa
Yes, we can already help you with scumbag mgmt from shitco to shitco 👍 As well as people who were more junior at shitco (e.g. the Junior Accountant at shitco who is now CFO at shitco)
@Keubiko
- have it on my to-do list to update you on the latest and greatest very soon!
$ADM Archer Daniels Midland -14.5% pre market after CFO is placed on administrative leave effective immediately, pending an ongoing investigation focused on ADM’s Nutrition reporting segment. Ismael Roig has been made interim Chief Financial Officer.
Updated guidance:
In 2024, I want to improve my Idea Generation process. Here is what it will look like:
Idea Sourcing:
Going through Press releases on Sedar and Otcmarkets looking for either change (new Management) or growth in earnings releases.
Furthermore, checking Microcapclub and newest
We’re going to be releasing the results of an experiment that should be a great pond to fish for some shorts 👍
Signup for Labs to hear about it first!
@DeepSailCapital
One way to generate investment ideas is by following certain activist funds.
Below is my go-to list of 10+ small/mid-cap activist funds.
I scan these regularly and have made a handful of lucrative picks already. 👇
Thankful for all the folks who shared their time this past week in NYC! Based on your feedback, we're already iterating & building some must-have features.
Excited to be building powerful, thoughtfully-designed technologies for the investment community. Stay tuned for more!
Zoom $ZM – New Contact Center Pricing!
⦁ “So we have Zoom Contact Center, which is priced on a per-seat basis. And we started out there was a very price disruptive at $70 a seat.”
⦁ “We have since then announced that we have tiered pricing, adding in more of these features and
DocuSign $DOCU – Pricing Competition on Unlimited Envelopes, Pay-As-You-Go Accelerating
⦁ “And then in the commercial segment, the mid-market and SMB segment, we're now competing more directly with some of our lower-priced competitors who have offered unlimited envelope
Informatica $INFA – Margin Expansion Coming – Completed Shift to Cloud-Based, Consumption-Based Model
⦁ “… we also said we're going to make it a single pricing model. Consumption-based pricing, we call IPU… IPU is a token, a fungible token that you can use to buy, to consume
Sorry for the techno babble, but genuinely believe that one of the most important assumptions you need to clarify in your head is whether agentic models are coming, but only a matter of time (<10 yrs) or they are still many technological breakthroughs away.
Notable insider purchases & sales today:
Sales
Blue Bird Corporation ( $BLBD, $1B )
⦁ ASP BB Holdings LLC, sold -100% of their holdings, worth $133.0M
ConocoPhillips ( $COP, $130B )
⦁ Christopher Delk (VP, Controller), sold -100% of their holdings, worth $950K
⦁ Dominic
@SumZero
SumZero is one of the most differentiated sources of insights out there. Lots of filings trackers, lots of expert networks, etc.
But very, very few global, community-generated, quality-vetted, idea libraries!
A new feature we're starting to flight: inferring the market's probability of future stock prices from option prices. This is not done by any free consumer tool yet, I think. Note how earnings calls increase uncertainty.
@MetacriticCap
@patrick_oshag
Thanks for the shoutout!
We're cooking! Working furiously to deliver the most powerful idea gen system for fundamental investors.
Peng Zhou, CEO Citadel Securities, buckets cognit. models: numerical, verbal, symbolic, spatial, etc.
Today, they do "numerical reasoning": 100 PB data, push through algos, get trade decisions.
Now excited about verbal reasoning. Excited to see the push!
Polen Capital on Core & Main $CNM:
"As one of the two largest players in a fragmented industry, the company has a proven track record of capital allocation skills"
(Extract from their Q4 letter)