Evan Armstrong 📧 @itsurboyevan Twitter profile

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

The secret sauce of Silicon Valley is the belief that all problems are fixable

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

there are only 3 jobs: 1) make stuff 2) sell stuff 3) tell people in categories 1 & 2 what to do way, way too many young people i talk to think 3 is the pinnacle. If you can find a category 1 job that pays your bills, it is magical living

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@visakanv Or, hear me out, your family should care about your achievements regardless of your storytelling skills lol

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Kinda insane that this entire debacle was potentially caused by @ByrneHobart 's newsletter. Here's how the butterfly effect happened. 1) Byrne posts this article/Tweet calling out SVB's risk. 2) Pretty much every VC I know reads this newsletter 3) They all start to pay very,

Byrne Hobart

@ByrneHobart

1 year

Also in today's newsletter: Silicon Valley Bank was, based on the market value of their assets, technically insolvent last quarter and is now levered 185:1.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

i'm like 99% sure pornhub's acquisition is a scam:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

name one successfully exited startup where the CEO is a prolific tweeter

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

LinkedIn must be stopped

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

. @OpenAI 's code interpreter could make 50%+ of finance and accounting folks redundant and maybe collapse the Netsuite empire. the tool is magic, gasp out loud ai that can ingest a csv and spit out intelligent, accurate analysis it is still in alpha, but man the future is here:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

I've been looking for an example of this for a year and I'm pretty sure they don't exist: - Worth 1B+ - Married to original spouse - Outstanding moral virtue - Kids are all relatively successful - Kids have a good relationship with parents Any idea? cc @FoundersPodcast

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

In summary: - a fund that doesn't exist - staffed with complete industry noobs - bought a company they can't afford - run by a bunch of shady characters this story is so obviously a conspiracy that it looks like a really lazy storyline in the Sopranos.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

technology is amazing: i'm sitting in a tin can flying at 500 mph through the sky, while simultaneously using AI to cowrite an essay, while streaming Mozart, all powered by melted sand processed in Taiwan. easy to forget what a miracle this all is

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

13 days

securing a cushy job for yourself while leaving most of your employees at a husk of a startup feels icky

TechCrunch

@TechCrunch

13 days

CEO Noam Shazeer returns to Google

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

venture capital is becoming a terrible product. returns are shrinking, founders are forced to pursue crazy risks, and it just smells rotten. today, i published the result of months of research on the root of the problem and the fix. enjoy.

Venture Capital Is Ripe for Disruption

A world where a billion is a drop in the bucket

every.to

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

i don't think y'all get how incredible @OpenAI 's Code Interpreter is—it's the most powerful, jaw dropping, i can't believe it did that, AI tool i've ever used. i'm not trying to be an AI hype guy, but this is legit world changing i'll release my latest experiment tomorrow...

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

Big news! I quit my cushy tech job and have gone all-in on writing. I've been making my content at night and on the weekends. Finally, after 11 months of grinding, Napkin Math is big enough for me to bet the farm. Thank you to my readers and @every for making this possible.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

23 days

this is what sam altman sees in his nightmares

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

two signs a founder is a grifter:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@SchonbergerJake if they find my head crushed in like a melon for speaking the truth you know who to accuse

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@ByrneHobart new goal for napkin math: bring about the downfall of a multi-billion dollar institution

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Plus the Mindgeek's history is shady as hell too! Executives have been convicted of money laundering (2009) and tax evasion (2010) Most recently, the CEO of Mindgeek's house burned down right as it was put up for sale

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

Simply the best book on venture capital ever written. Even as a student of the industry, I learned a ton. @scmallaby killed it.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Wrong. Not a SINGLE ONE of their employees has ever worked in private equity before. None of them have ever worked in technology before. None of them have publicly worked at the fund for longer than 6 months. The fund's leader? Made his money selling weed.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Not only are the employees baffling, the fund doesn't appear to exist???? I checked both the U.S. and Canadian Investment registration databases, absolutely nothing is there. The fund refuses to acknowledge where their capital is coming from or who will operate Mindgeek

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

"We are nowhere near the point of diminishing marginal returns on how powerful we can make AI models as we increase the scale of compute." this is the most important sentence you'll read this year. everything else is downstream.

Tsarathustra

@tsarnick

3 months

Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott says we are riding an exponential wave in the scaling of AI compute and the end is nowhere in sight

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

for those unaware, pornhub's parent company mindgeek got bought last week, by, get this "ethical capital partners" Mindgeek owns pornhub and a bunch of other porn sites like redtube, brazzers, MyDirtyHobby, etc

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

6 months

Just did the Vision Pro demo—that was far, far beyond anything I expected. The future has arrived.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

i've been doing research on Pornhub's acquisition for weeks now and have talked to multiple folks familiar with the transaction. today, i'd like to share what i learned spoiler: it is still deeply concerning

Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

i'm like 99% sure pornhub's acquisition is a scam:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

This is no small transaction—the company is estimated to have $460M+ in revenue and 1K+ employees. the website is a top 15 most popular site IN THE WORLD. it gets more visits than amazon! with something that valuable you would expect ECP to be a big, experienced fund right?

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@BrianBrechbuhl @ByrneHobart I advocate for subscribing to the messengers newsletter

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

elon is a reply guy and doesn’t count

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

Every single week for the last 6 months I’ve heard about a vc fund spinning up a content arm. People are DRAMATICALLY underestimating the level of capital, talent, and time required to do it right Expect a lot of half hearted podcasts and ghostwritten 1k word blogs in the future

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

if you enjoyed this thread you'll also enjoy my writing at Napkin Math—my column at @every with 75K+ subscribers—where i analyze the crazy world of tech and finance.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

4 months

@Altimor “Do it or you’re fired” is hilarious

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

if I were to summarize the current state of @cartoonavatars

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

rip to alltrails

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

One thing to add—there was viral thread that talked about it earlier. I’ve also heard reports of 1 or 2 firms warning their portcos late last year. But my estimation is that this tweet/newsletter was the one that truly entered the vc hive consciousness

Raging Capital Ventures

@RagingVentures

2 years

Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB reports earnings tomorrow Investors have rightfully been fixated on $SIVB's large exposure to the stressed venture world, with the stock down a lot. However, dig just a little deeper, and you will find a much bigger set of problems at $SIVB... 1/10

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

London is an S tier city. The combo of insane bookstores, beautiful landscapes, architecture, and theater is unbeatable. If this country could learn to make a good burrito I’d move 😂

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

OpenAI's NRR is unbelievable: - 82% of companies that transacted with the tool a year ago still do so today. - On average, OpenAI customers grew their spend by 25% every month in the first year of service.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

for the last month I've gone straight goblin mode—forgetting to shower, to eat, totally obsessed with AI. I have emerged from that hibernation with an AI value chain and a forecast of which types of AI companies and products will be successful. enjoy.

Who Wins the AI Value Chain?

It's A Brave New World

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

I am aware that these are deeply unfair filters and that there are many wonderful people who get divorced for good reasons, have dumb kids, whatever. But it is still noteworthy how freaking hard it is to find this individual! Seriously, these tweets represent months of googling.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

Pleased to announce this merger

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

The two that have come closest: - Bill Marriott, checks all boxes but got sued by a son - Chuck Feeney, gave away 8B but left original wife and married his secretary any other ideas? there are some tech founders who could qualify but i think you need more time for the kids q

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

Getting Lebron a lot. Going to disqualify based on his China comments. Papering over genocide disqualifies him IMO. Though I will say that I think he is incredible athlete, family man, gives back to community, etc. very, very close to hitting the mark.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

@andrew__rea no andrew the world definitely needs another technology newsletter written by a white guy. my product is highly differentiated.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

My second time being number 1 on hacker news!! I'm so glad people find value in my work—I try really hard for y'all

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

for all the details and info, you can read the essay i wrote about my experiment here

OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in loser, we’re disrupting Oracle

every.to

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

4 months

@JTLonsdale @FoundersPodcast Funny how consistent this is! The people that pull this off are the ones adverse to the spotlight

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

last month i got it to run a full DCF on Facebook for me in <10 minutes. an exercise that would usually take a few hours.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

in five years i think we will see MILLIONS of people having affairs with chatbots. this person on reddit is dating their chatbot trained on their texts with their ex.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

alright just so it is said: this is not actually going to kill AllTrails. AllTrails has user review/photo network effects, statelets tracking, and 100x more trails available. Didn’t think so many people would be interested in my joke!

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

@packyM The Stripe Atlas to Mercury flow to set up a new LLC and bank account was insane. Incredibly good.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

Getting grumpy DMs around the morals question Yes, of course it is a subjective and a flawed metric But I want a world where our most successful people are also the ones who are obviously moral paragons. These filters are designed to be overly stringent on purpose. Don't you

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

Exciting news! I'm teaming up with @bryce and @indievc to shape their thinking and hunt for investments around AI and other areas of interest. There is a new type of founder and a new company archetype. We want to find them and back them.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@runaway_vol lmao

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

signs someone hates their career and is trying to hide it - tweets about building passive income streams - obsessed with "personal holding companies" - cold plunges just to feel something I would argue there is a better way. More here—>

Devote Yourself to the Cause of Your Life

Your to-do list can wait

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

Humane just can’t catch a break—telling customers to not charge it using the included case.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

@dee_bosa I can verify that rahul limga is a real employee. His family comes from the Sugma and Deez regions of France.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

4 months

@lucas__crespo they did!

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

we all start somewhere

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

don't forget this tin can is powered by thousands of very small explosions created with melted dinosaur sludge

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Steve Jobs on conversational AI in 1983. It is a testament to his vision that 40 years later we can have a chat with Aristotle.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Tinder is way, way more important than you think forget AI, the people want to bone:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

As a reminder: a universal decrease in creation costs is accompanied by an increase in distribution costs. The billion dollar solo-entrepreneur is only possible with an long-term distribution advantage. It doesn't come from AI making code cheaper.

Pietro Schirano

@skirano

3 months

GPT-4o is so good at coding that I am having legit mind bending moments back to back. The era of the billion dollar solo entrepreneur really has started.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

In startup land, there is no institution more powerful then Y Combinator. Inspired by their recent term sheet changes, @theryanking 's thread, interviews with multiple YC competitors, and challenging market conditions, today I publish a piece asking: Are they doomed?

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@visakanv Prescient tweet

Visakan Veerasamy

@visakanv

1 year

I feel like the biggest frame shift in my transition from ~5k follower guy to ~50k follower guy is about learning to be ok with being misunderstood and misinterpreted

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

@darshsdalal getting noticed by a product manager in san jose is the kiss of death for startups

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

It's been one year since I quit my tech job to write full-time. 75K+ readers later, here I am, amazed that this is somehow working. But also, I've seen some stuff:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

Ostensibly I’m a tech writer, but I’ve mostly been writing about this little nugget lately. Grappling with raising a child while my career is unclear and my moral views are evolving has been…challenging. Published my first essay about it today. Check it.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

i have known many people who were truly, absolutely terrible at their job. like i'd rather be boiled alive than receive another deliverable from them bad. they then go on to have huge success elsewhere...i'm mostly convinced that work performance is wholly context-dependent

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

9 months

@Patticus good timing, published an article on this like 10 minutes ago

How I Use ChatGPT (As A Reasonable Person)

My AI awakening

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

Big day tomorrow for @every . We’ve made a new AI tool that has made our team dramatically more productive. It was so good, we thought y’all would love it too. Counting down…

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

David Bowie was a genius. You may know him for his music or his fashion, but I love him for his thoughts about the internet. Every time I assume I know how the internet works or what it means, his thoughts about it challenges me. I think it will do the same for you. But

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

8 months

My takeaway: this took us way way more work than it would’ve in SaaS. Media truly is a terrible business lol. There are roughly a million easier way to make a million

Dan Shipper 📧

@danshipper

8 months

We cracked $1mm in revenue for the year @every ! Very proud of this team. I feel incredibly lucky that we get to do this together.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

“To be ahead of the market you can’t be a follower. You can’t be following what is hot. You have to have your own belief system. But to me risk is a religion, and I think if you want to go after the big market, you need to take it.” From the legendary @vkhosla

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@OpenAI alright y'all here it is: i think we are looking at a total collapse of finance workflow software. a future where we have to rethink what a P&L even is. it all starts with Code Interpreter

OpenAI’s Code Interpreter Is About to Remake Finance

Get in loser, we’re disrupting Oracle

every.to

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

There are a few essays a year that totally shift my perspective on startups and strategy. This was one of those. MSCHF has raised 11M from Founder's Fund, released over 100 products in the last 5 years, and has done so while being true to their taste.

The Art of Scaling Taste

How MSCHF turns irreverent ideas into a real business

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

i'd like to propose 6 strategy theories about AI:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

9 months

Post is reporting that Altman's attempt to raise funding from the middle east for his chip company was a catalyst in his firing. I argued the same thing yesterday. Importantly, they argue that there's a pattern of self-dealing behavior. One that lead to PG firing Sam from YC.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

I wrote online for the first time a year ago. It only went to ~50 people, but I felt like I had discovered something within myself. Now I run Napkin Math with ~16.6k readers and have added about 1.3k followers in the 2 months since I took over. 🧵 on whats next

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

i recently finished a remarkable book. it was: too long generic in a genre i dislike and despite that...it changed my life. Rick Rubin's new book is a masterpiece that has significantly changed how I view my life as an artist. enjoy my review.

The Meditations of Vinyl Jesus

Music producer Rick Rubin explores the creative process

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

this time, i was able to do a rudimentary audit in <30 minutes. i was so stoked i tweeted this out and lots of folks got very interested

Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

i don't think y'all get how incredible @OpenAI 's Code Interpreter is—it's the most powerful, jaw dropping, i can't believe it did that, AI tool i've ever used. i'm not trying to be an AI hype guy, but this is legit world changing i'll release my latest experiment tomorrow...

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

@marketplunger1 Hyperion is great literature that happens to be sci-fi YA books for quick easy reads: enders game, Red Rising Three-body problem for smart sci-fi

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

When I was 22 I was diagnosed with cancer. For a few months, I thought that was it. I was done. A goner. Time had always felt like a gently flowing river that I could laze in forever. Suddenly it was a gushing, torrential thing, hurtling me towards an early death. Feeling

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Vice went from a $5.7B valuation to bankruptcy. Gawker is gone. Buzzfeed is on life support. Even Disney is doing layoffs...How did it come to this?? Here are my 7 reasons that media is a no-good, horrible, rotten business that I love anyways:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 months

I had an incredible time with the MSCHF team and learning about taste from them. Really special company. What other startups should I profile? I'm looking for founders who are violating startup norms and are succeeding because of it.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

4 months

Seinfeld on the importance of craft:

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

OpenAI is building them Software companies fear them Investors are funding them The small issue? No one has made one that works (yet). When someone does, they'll make billions, maybe trillions. Welcome to the wild world of AI agents.

What Are AI Agents—And Who Profits From Them?

The newest wave of AI research is changing everything

every.to

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

Feeling incredibly grateful tonight. In the last year I: - Wrote online for the first time. Now 18K+ people read me every week. - Met the single best person ever. We get married next week. 3 years ago, I was deeply depressed and unemployed. Keep going! Don't give up hope.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

Me after sending my two emails for the week

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 months

The competitive edge for @every is that we give a shit. We put an ungodly amount of effort towards crafting great writing. Taste matters. Details matters. Care matters. We're now bringing that same energy to software. I'm excited that Brandon has joined us to lead the charge.

Dan Shipper 📧

@danshipper

3 months

📣News: We brought on our first entrepreneur in residence at Every: @bran_don_gell ! Previously, Brandon was the cofounder and CEO of insuretech startup Clyde, where he raised $50 million and built a team of over 100 people before selling it to CoverGenius in March 2023. He’s

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

For every successful use of a framework or founder archetype, I can find a tech company that took the exact opposite approach and was successful. What gives? Why isn't there a theory to rule them all? I tackled that conundrum this week for Napkin Math:

Why Culture Eats Strategy

The Search For the Winning Formula

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

i want flying cars and nuclear reactors and spacecraft and biohacking and teleportation. instead, we just got another reskinned version of Excel. Perhaps it is time to wonder if we are funding the wrong things.

Has Venture Lost Its Soul?

A Book Review of The Power Law

every.to

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

@ReSETConcerts Love being an attendee of Boston fyre fest

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

I'm in a lobby eavesdropping a woman's call on "cross-functional alignment and associated KPIs" In the 72 minutes that I have been here, she has, not ONCE, said anything of substance. it is a slurry of corporate cliches, of brain melting nothingness corporate work is fake

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

5 months

Claude 3 is a marvel. It is the most human-feeling, creative, and naturalistic AI that I have ever interacted with. @AnthropicAI crushed it. While the benchmarking puts it in line with GPT4, the tests don't tell the whole tale. This is tech with a soul.

Claude 3 Is The Most Human AI Yet

But that doesn’t mean it's going to beat ChatGPT

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

4 months

@sweatystartup You’re getting ripped off lol

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

First time ever getting me, @danshipper , and @nbashaw in the same room. Really excited about what we got cookin @every 🚀🚀🚀

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

1 year

Vice's collapse from a $6B to <$400M valuation in just 5 years is a lesson: a media business is just an arbitrage on the difference between what you pay creatives for their work and what that work is worth to audiences. that rarely lasts. you usually need unique distribution

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

3 years

Trying out @TegusHQ this weekend - GLG is doomed. This is 10x better.

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Evan Armstrong 📧

@itsurboyevan

2 years

big thing alert! we at @every teamed up with @interintellect_ to throw the conference we have always wanted...we are calling it Thesis. Some of the best writers on the internet will present their thesis on how the world works in small, intimate groups. writers including...

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