BAT @BATMongoose Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

BAT

@BATMongoose

2,789

Followers

1,680

Following

338

Media

16,072

Statuses

Beat, raise, explore strategic options. All opinions sourced from much smarter ppl

United States

Joined November 2010

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

Pinned Tweet

@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

Hot take: Everything is cyclical, nothing is secular. There are only longer cycles and shorter cycles. At the end of THE GREAT CYCLE we are all dead and the Universe itself burns cold 🥁

@RaisingTheBAR47

RTB 🚀 - AKA Mr Wen, Based Kitten

@RaisingTheBAR47

2 years

Hot take: a company who’s growth goes from 50% to 0% in recession is just as cyclical as a business who’s growth goes from 25% to -25% in a recession Multiples reflect trend growth so only 2nd derivative “Secular growth” favorites are actually extremely cyclical #EFT

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Last Seen Profiles

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@BronwynK39

@kfrazine

@BATMongoose

BAT

6 months

@NateSilver538 This is nonsense. It is worse on a basic technical level. It's core functionality is worse. The community dynamics have been damaged. It now has legitimate competition.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@eqvolvorama @drmanejwala @JackPosobiec I’m using the term sharia digits whenever I don’t feel like doing math from now on

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

Friend on private side just asked me to plunk down $ for new unicorn at 80x ARR and seemed genuinely surprised to learn that $TWLO trades at 4x and markets are getting crushed. VC bois just partying at SXSW and enjoying the eternal sunshine

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@hankgreen 🫣 There is no other math you can learn without algebra and students should absolutely not be in college if they haven't mastered it. Algebra is literally a first year of high school subject.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@HuskerGod1 @VDiscriminated @RealPaulWinters @elisabethlehem @indimontgomery @burgessev @maggieNYT Donald Trump. You lose.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@bgurley @DavidSchawel Analyst at ~well known~ crossover fund. Anonymity allows me to say things other than "founders X is a genius", "tech co X is a 10 bagger", "optimists make money", "web3 changes everything" that constitutes the acceptable range of views for tech twitter

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

Noble of Tobi to hold the analysts that had $2200 price targets on $SHOP accountable

@tobi

tobi lutke

2 years

Is there a place where financial analysts track records are kept? People seem to pay attention to them but are they being held accountable?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 months

@tendies_lord @thefurlinator No he just has no valid answers the complaining was purely emotive so judo to “I don’t have to answer.” If there was a cogent winning answer he would have offered.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

$COUP is the ultimate parable about avoiding Tiger Cub circle jerks. You just know one senior analyst at Lone Pine told the Coupa pay story to their counterpart at Viking, and all of a sudden the whole TMT HF gang is bidding a lie.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@TokenOfTheMonth @pm_me_bird_art @gothickhorror @leyawn Why are you using 2018 numbers? At this point bitcoin is using more energy than entire countries. It also provides much less value than tech/ infrastructure that uses literally 1M x less (e.g. credit card transactions, cellphones).

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

Pretty much impossible for any TMT fund to survive this carnage. One thing for 40x sales SAAScos to be down 80% and another for FAAMG to be down 50 - 70. Only way to win is to have sat it out. Phillippe Laffont is a genius

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@theREALnickryan @samswey Math - Each state gets a minimum of 1 rep. Cali has 53 for 40Mppl, or 1 for every 750k ppl. Any state with fewer than 750kppl (Wyoming, VErmont, Alaska, North Dakota) has relative over-representation. Minor compared to the level of Senate over-representation tho

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@Mike_DMcDonald @NateSilver538 Lo and behold - Kavanaugh refuses to answer whether a president can pardon himself, a power which would make the president a straight up dictator

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 months

Completely insane story. How does $MMM survive the legal liability from having poisoned most the Earth's population?

Tweet media one

@NewYorker

The New Yorker

5 months

Studies conducted by scientists at 3M found that one of its “forever chemicals” was in the general public’s blood—and that it was toxic. Why didn’t the public find out?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@mattyglesias The new income based repayment program is equivalent to another $450B over a decade, so in reality he's forgiven at least 25% of all student loans by present value.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

10 months

The $BABA Chinese internet convo on here boring. At EOD some ppl think price compensates you for risk, some don't. Some are fine holding short term losses, some aren't. A lot of the dunks are silly: 1) ADRs can do dividends/buybacks. Your money isn't "trapped"

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@fidelplutonic @thatoneguy1I90 @mermatriarch They sound like ideal customers actually

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@theREALnickryan @samswey Small states are even more over represented in the Senate - 1 Senator for every 300K Wyomians vs 1 for every 20M Californians. Therefore they are more over represented in the electoral college than in the House - this is obvious

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@antoniogm Never say "Peak 2020". The Gods take that as a challenge.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 years

@lukeachilds @BillScurry44 @YossiGestetner @thehill @AOC @SenSanders This is a pretty ridiculous comparison. Cancer will kill you. A lower tier college will ... A $250k education is a luxury, and the benefits accrue largely to the person that gets it. Other ppl shouldn’t have to finance your “prestige” school.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 years

@BarkleyTracy @SpeakerPelosi She is from California, and NYC is one of the safest major cities in the world (and hadn’t been safer in decades). You should try visiting. Actually, stay away.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@buccocapital This is a fascinating issue b/c I think Dems are under-estimating exactly how polarizing it is. If you only hang around highly indebted and educated ppl (like the Dem elite) it is infinitely popular. My HKS/HBS/USC film school friends all think it makes perfect sense

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@BATMongoose

BAT

7 months

@BichonRedux @MitradataSapta And bc $45K is like 70% of the median income

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@fawfulfan @bariweiss @cjane87 @nhannahjones @nytimes She was wrong though. The entire lot have proven themselves deplorable

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 years

@KentPitman @NateSilver538 @GovBillWeld Trumps base is a cult. A credible independent candidate only hurts Dems

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@browserdotsys @joking_mostly Data scientists reading this

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@boomer_btc @SawyerMerritt @elonmusk This is an impossibly funny comment from someone that shills magic internet money.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

A year ago $TSLA was trading at $220, Jonas upgraded to buy with target $400 expecting $20B in FCF and $13 in EPS for 2023. $TSLA is now on track for $6B in FCF and $3.30 in EPS with the stock at $240 and target is unchanged. The God of all meme stonks

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@IChotiner Since most American Presidents could not have been elected if they were other than whites men, by his own definition EVERY American President was an affirmative action President

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

"Every SAAS company should prepare for a future in which they trade at 10x NTM revenue steady state"

@dalibali2

dalibali

2 years

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@WALL_DY American Muslims are disproportionately high socio economic class professionals and have those values (I.e. liberal). UK Muslims skew much poorer / working class (probably due to relative ease of immigration) and have those values (reactionary)

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

1/n) Some hater thoughts to piss off hedge fund fintwit: It's almost certain that the best stock-pickers and portfolio managers are actually at the platforms, both by virtue of sheer numbers and the aggressive selection effect. Separate from the fact that single managers...

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 months

@Adam_Is_Pneuma @mu2myoc What job process do you expect to get through that won't require a few hours? If it was an assessment that could be expected to take a week of work then I'd expect to know I was at the last stages, but 90 - 180 minutes is reasonable even for an early process assessment.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@BleedingDhands @JacobOracle @CryptoWhale “We’re studying crypto”

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@tedcruz Why? Because @realDonaldTrump owes them $500M in back taxes?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

Is the standard way to end a hedge fund process with someone to simply stop responding to them? Feel as if this is common (especially w/ SM funds) and the lack of professionalism is mind boggling.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@jessesomething @theREALbenORR @EdMarkey The total net worth of U.S. billionaires is $3.5T, enough to pay for half a year of this. Conservatives used to be the ones with idiot magic money ideas (tax cuts pay for themselves!) but liberals are increasingly determined to ignore math as well.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

11 months

Smart acquirer could get $DOCU to $3B sales, 40% FCF margin for $1.2B in FCF. LBO math works with $7-8B of debt and a similar sized equity check.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 years

@emptywheel @LOLGOP The consulting fees were in addition to her law professor salary of several hundred thousand dollars a year, so no she wasn't.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@DanFriedman81 @AliceFromQueens It is insanely unreasonable to think someone should be imprisoned for life for punching someone in the face. It violates every principle of justice and proportionality.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

7 months

@mattyglesias I could be wrong but I believe George Washington sold shares in his scam social network SPAC.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@theREALnickryan @samswey No, they are still overrepresented in the house

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@LibertyRPF @LSValue @JerryCap “Won’t survive heat death of the universe” is always the last line of my short pitch

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@ObservationDesk @EricBalchunas @BobPisani The Nasdaq has annualized 20%, so she's put up 2% outperformance while losing $5B in dollar terms (she started underperforming when she got big). Also her pronouncements are arguably illegal

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@BATMongoose

BAT

8 months

To the idiots saying Sundar should be fired b/c of visible flaws in one product rollout: + Sales and FCF up 4.5x in < a decade at the helm + "Attention is All You Need", which invented Transformers that led to LLMs, was written by Google scientists in 2017...

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@ATXtreehugger @KevinWhitelaw1 The invasion was in 2014. Putin just needs to decide if he wants to win by a landslide or a tsunami

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@BATMongoose

BAT

10 months

5) Rest of U.S. economy/markets certainly not pricing in imminent war or collapse. Is holding cos with China supply chains (1/2 the S&P) or sales (TSLA,APPLE) at 30 or 60x FCF safer than holding China cos at 5x? Don't know but certainly some internal inconsistency there

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@BATMongoose

BAT

8 months

$GOOGL down b/c image generation LOLZ. $PANW up b/c Pelosi. Market really has gotten short term dumber.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@patrick_oshag Can't believe I'm the first to say this: Starcraft

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@BATMongoose

BAT

8 months

@LionelHutz_Esq The real test: how much can you exit for?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

This is an extremely common view in Silicon Valley. *Most* of my engineer friends don’t understand why investors logically own the co and shareholder value needs to be maximized. Stock option chasing proto socialists And ppl criticize me for being willing to invest in China …

Tweet media one

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@WDWBarrett @BradleyWhitford @TheJusticeDept How they *don't* mete out justice

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@speculawyer @inursha @norwegian76 @eddiemac3356 @elonmusk @BagholderQuotes Weak attempt at deflection. $tslaq is not a call on the long term viability of electric vehicles. It’s a call on the long term viability of one co ridiculously levered co that makes expensive money losing EVs with rapidly commoditizing tech.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@ChattorajTK @MsHodl @NatashaRSarin Can you actually explain how "Bitcoin solves this" or is this just another bizarre magic internet money fantasy?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@SenBillCassidy @BlayneWeaver @MichaelAvenatti They can find facts. They will certainly not be subtractive from the process. Also, Avenatti isn't making any accusations, Julie Swetnick is so at least have the courage to say you think SHE's lying rather than try to deflect.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@BucknSF Depositors will be made while. Concern is ppl that were counting on SVB for financing, especially for unusual biz models, PE lines or credit, etc

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@YoungEx20 @elizaorlins Because he hasn't actually been tried and convicted. The real question is how do you pardon yourself without first admitting to a crime? In order to be exempt from NY State crimes he'd have to know what charges are pending and get federally convicted for them.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@IgnoreNarrative @Crussian17 Employees are getting trued up with options that will dilute investors even more now that share prices are lower ... its pretty much exactly like expense deleverage on a shrinking stock price. It's an expense

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@orthereaboot $GOOG doesn't guide. Readthrough is to Q1 earnings and is very ugly. Surprised $GOOG isn't down more tbh

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@LSValue I'm going to give that 0 chance. Possible we are in the pre-return to mean bottom, but Feb 2021 was clearly some kind of bubble peak

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@BATMongoose

BAT

10 months

Its not insane to be willing to invest in our #1 trading partner at extreme prices. Might work, might not but the confirmation bias based on short term price moves is absurd.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@bucketshopcap What if I want to underperform the S&P by 2 points a day forever?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@auren @sairarahman Underrated response. Y combinator got sure - might skip Renaissance bc even extremely profitable black boxes scare me. Other is Stripe bc they will go public and I would have liquidity soon

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

The numbers from $AMZN $PINS $SNAP (holy crap) all support the idea that $FB's biggest problem might actually be market share losses which is ... um ... scary as shit if you're a holder

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@BATMongoose

BAT

7 months

FDA should hand us our final legal victory next Tuesday so we can move on to the real show $LQDA

@fin_capital

FindellCap

7 months

Judge Andrews just amended his judgement. $LQDA is greenlit to launch.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@MandyPlants @Nicole_Cliffe Are you sure he wasn't practicing to be a professional soccer player?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@buccocapital Possibly, but hiring freezes by big cos probably have a bigger impact on tech employment picture. E.g. $GOOG / $MSFT hire a few thousand engineers a year recently and have pulled back - more relevant than a bunch of startups laying off a few hundred ppl

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@BATMongoose

BAT

8 months

@C_S_Skeptic He owns 20% if you count his options, so $110B. Other $90B mostly his 40% ownership of SpaceX with its fake $200B mark based on what VCs can convince private wealth to pay.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@RicksCEO The CEO of this company has sold $40B over the last year and there have been no insider buys in 4 years. You should buy AFTER he buys

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@PeacedeResist86 @people "It's easy to make billions when you start with millions." Not true, otherwise there'd be a lot more billionaires

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@seandougfan banking / PE now pays roughly the same as tech with much worse hours and 0 prestige value. The kids are smart

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@LetLuvRool @Angry_Staffer its not inevitable. variants typically get weaker over time. evidence already coming in that delta isn't stronger, this is just a seasonal uptick b/c we still have so many unvaxed idiots

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

This was a more boring than usual $TSLA earnings call then BAM! Amazing.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

The biggest most well known companies in the world are growing faster with better margins than all of my clever "off the radar" ideas $GOOG $NVDA

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@kwakara91 @HistoryBoomer @SwannMarcus89 One of the unusual (good) things about NYC is ppl of different social classes are actually forced to interact (e.g. on the subway, the sidewalk…) The faux middle class ppl are literally just ignoring the masses they see every day.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@primalpoly @JonahDispatch Elon is a highly promotional businessman - no more no less. “World historical genius” is laughable

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@DanWuori @JeffreyASachs This is like watching the Lebron James of moms

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@BuddyYakov @opinonhaver In 2020 the Russian agents organized real life protests while posting as both BLM and MAGA. That requires an awesome level of cultural understanding. The downside of hegemony is everyone is more attentive to us than we to them. They know us better.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@truth_tesla @samsciencealt @elonmusk @ValaAfshar This is nonfactual. They do not, in fact, scale well which is why you do not find examples in any part of the world. These are literally just cars. Mass transit is, and will remain, the best and most environmentally friendly solution.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@FutureIsTesla @maxberger @EdMarkey @AOC @ewarren @BernieSanders Some context: Tesla exists b/c of $10s of billions in climate subsidy to EVs which has been championed entirely by Dems and opposed by GOP, but Elon got upset when they asked him to close up shop during the pandemic.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@CorneliaLake I cannot overstate how much telco PMs loved Ergen. He was going to fly us all to the promised land on a magical spectrum unicorn. Kudos to @KerrisdaleCap for this one:

Tweet card media

DISH Network Corporation (DISH) - Kerrisdale Capital

Today we are publishing our report on DISH Network Corporation, which you will find below. We also created a website, makespectrumgreatagain.com, that has a 2-minute video and additional information...

www.kerrisdalecap.com

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 years

@JCOviedo6 At first I thought $TSLAQ was suffering from availability bias in obsessing over each accident, but it seems like 1 a day is a lot relative to the total # of Tesla's on the road?

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

Made 60% in < 1 week betting on this pretty obvious affirmative action ruling @Kalshi Politics/govt markets are so inefficient. If I was in college I'd be trying to build a fund around this.

Tweet media one

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@ryscar13 @thehowie @WineJerk @NateSilver538 Her economic illiteracy is no worse than ... Paul Ryan andthe entire GOP Senate. She does not stand out in that regard.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@morgan_390 @IDoTheThinking Presumably you “deserve” to get in if you match the median student. The median student at Berkeley is Asian. Removing the 4% of black students won’t move the needle, ESPECIALLY with your racist assumption that they are bottom of class.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@Carnage4Life Relax with the tech bro exceptionalism 🙄 Plenty of industries create millionaires (finance, law to name two). The tech ppl are disproportionately obnoxious, especially about policing media coverage.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

@BustedAuction @Larryjamieson_ Most PE associates/VPs could be great at product. Product is mostly quarterbacking a deliverable, not unlike coordinating the bankers/consultants/whoever else to get a deal closed.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

Regardless of what happens tonight Trump has proved that low taxes, racial grievance, anti-immigrant rhetoric, religious pandering, and open corruption can create a viable electoral coalition for the GOP. Trump may or may not win, but Trumpism stays.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@mcjamez @TriTexan No he didn't. Mustk wasn't even an original founder of Tesla. It's incredible how uninformed the cult is.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@Araulius @MonicaBPotts In the last 30 years Democrats have won the popular vote 6/7 times. Doesn't seem out of touch to me

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

Cohodes is in this space just losing his mind at @StockJabber for asking him about his fraud promotions. @AlderLaneEggs huge 🤡

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@BATMongoose

BAT

3 years

Succinct articulation of the nihilism behind NFTs and much of crypto. Inherently financialized tech platforms run counter to the spirit of the internet, where the value accrued not to the early infrastructure builders but to the late service builders. Crypto is semi-feudal

@smdiehl

Stephen Diehl

3 years

New essay, in which I see the philosophy behind NFTs as giving rise to a dystopia I call the Tinkerbell Griftopia. The Tinkerbell Griftopia

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@BATMongoose

BAT

6 years

@308CPA @PatriciaRork @rosado_angelica @BelleTimsit @Ocasio2018 @qz 2.6%? Corp tax rate dropped > 30%, from 35 to 21. GOP lies about not materializing benefits - deficit is skyrocketing during economic expansion, literally unprecedented. Don’t mind scrutiny of Occasio but you’re worse than hypocrite if don’t/ didn’t call out Ryan/GOP for this

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@BATMongoose

BAT

5 years

@lpolovets @Austen You might get another chance to invest in Uber at $20B 🤷🏽‍♂️

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@BATMongoose

BAT

4 years

@Alex__Katz @Nate_Cohn As a Biden supporter its pretty clear no one is winning this debate. However, b/c Trump refuses to repeat anything but Fox News points there is no chance he has gained any new support. In that sense Biden wins automatically

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@BATMongoose

BAT

11 months

Judge in $LQDA hearing correctly recognizes that 793 is warmed over 212. This preconception matters b/c standard to overturn PTAB is "clear error", i.e. burden of proof is on $UTHR. Unless PTAB made egregious errors $UTHR needs judge open to small-bore technical arguments.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

. @MikeKeegan_DM asserting $MANU preferred bidder coming this week while @JacobsBen claims no exclusivity period for bidder. Sale could be announced anytime. Glazers definitely have a preference already but finishing up diligence. Still think simplicity favors Jassim.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

2 years

@fuzzyback3 @Marqrk1 @WallStreetSilv @elonmusk "Conservative minded companies" - lol, My Pillow can't fill this gap. In reality though companies aren't leaving over just Trump.

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@BATMongoose

BAT

1 year

@LukeWolgram Take whatever management tells you is growth capex and assume 70% of it is maintenance

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