Matthew Marinelli @MatthewMarinel5 Twitter profile

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Matthew Marinelli

4 years

A brief letter to all the grinders out there: This is my first real tweet. I don't speak up much on here, but felt inspired to write something countering the norm. Enjoy.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

Went on Mechanics of Poker podcast. Thanks to Rene & Adam for hosting me. They do a ton of prep for the guest and it shows. Also thanks to @GTOWizard for sponsoring the pod and providing a service that makes the study process I laid out 10x easier.😂Enjoy

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@micsolana Sounds like an AI prompt. Thoughts?

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@IgnitionCasino

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@mobiuspoker I already plan on going insane. May as well win another 0.1 bbs while I'm at it.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

4 months

@IgnitionCasino Stop posting stupid memes and address the bot situation on your site. Anyone reading this that isn't familiar with the cheating situation on this site should check this post out.

Mobius Poker

@mobiuspoker

5 months

Players Report Bots and Colluders Bypassing Ignition’s Security to Steal Hundred of Thousands of Dollars Players have sent evidence of cheating to @IgnitionCasino and have not been refunded. This thread will share that evidence. Please consider liking this post for visibility.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@IgnitionCasino Address the bot & collusion allegations on your site instead of posting stupid memes.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@tomer_balan Actual footage of my PC attempting that:

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@DougPolkVids <3 PG, but I agree with this take. They didn't seem to have a plan to overtake the network effect of the big players, nor did they really seem to cater to recs. A poker site not interested in attracting recs is like a nightclub not interested in women showing up.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@Jeremia19275163 Fuck that bro keep going. This game is 99% pain. You got this.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@steverlindner Point is we draw conclusions way too early. Variance is insane. There's people seen as online poker gods that just ran hot, and geniuses that never made it. Many would look at a 500k hand sample and think that proves someone is good or bad, but it doesn't.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@berkey11 There's been several accounts that have been banned recently at 5knl+ on WPN for RTA, and yet there's no public announcement / compensation. I don't understand why banned usernames aren't public; you only find out if you hear it through the grapevine or are in the right discord.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@Iranian_96 @mobiuspoker How you feel about it is one of the most important metrics with BRM. It's hard for poker dope to quantify "eat pint of ice cream, cry in the shower and not play for 5 days" into its risk of ruin calc.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@steverlindner Let's say you're an aspiring poker pro and have broken even for 500k hands. You wonder if you should keep playing, and 500k hands seems like enough. But there's a possibility you're a +6bb winner that just ran like shit, or a -6bb loser that was lucky to breakeven.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@DougPolkVids Meanwhile, Doge becomes the World Reserve Currency and Darth Musk becomes the first trillionaire at age 110.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

4 months

@IgnitionCasino The rewards are about as worthless as their security. Don't bother.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@Chris_D_Brewer Now imagine live MTTs. Phil Hellmuth is inevitable. If it wasn't Hellmuth, then it would be someone else even if just by chance.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@George_ymb But most of all, he's wearing the Berry shirt in honor of Berri Sweet. Linus is next level.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@PhilGalfond @ElliotRoe1 Phil, if you're interested in learning more about "Too Smart to Try", it's written about extensively by Carol Dweck and is described as Growth Mindset. Just google/youtube it and you'll find plenty. Thanks for sharing!

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@abarber1 @Chris_D_Brewer Of course we want to believe it's a meritocracy, but even a long career in live MTT can be largely determined by luck. There's plenty of players in the HSMTT scene that may be seen as brilliant, well-respected outliers that are just normal regs that ran top 10%+

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@FiveBFive Here's using primedope to simulate a 3bb winner playing 1m hands, with 20 samples. You could be anywhere from a 6.5bb winner (an online god) or a -0.2bb loser (washed up). Think about the story you'd tell about each player if you saw their results in isolation after 1m hands.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker Facing 1/6 pot river donks in 4BP: A Deep Dive

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

7 months

@BitbCash Damn, it's a shame online poker died last week. Could've been promising.🤷‍♂️

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@junglemandan @DougPolkVids There's a difference between "X is a scumbag" and "X did something scummy". Reducing someone to a label is inherently dehumanizing and makes it easier to mistreat them. Same reason people shift to saying things like person experiencing homelessness instead of just homeless.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice 1: Start new poker site and hire Landon as premiere sponsored pro. 2: Landon hosts PogChamps of poker 3: Landon coaches Kim Kardashian in poker on twitch. It goes viral. 4: Poker booms like Chess with a new generation of players flooding in. 5: Landon elected Sultan of poker.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker Yeah @angeladuckw refers to this as substituting nuance for novelty. Basically, humans get bored and you have to sustain your grit over long periods of time, so the trick is mixing things up from time to time without sacrificing the foundation of what you do.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker You can read as many Galfond tidbits as you want, but if you don't have some dog in you then you're gonna have a really short career.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@mobiuspoker You forgot one. 3. White Magic But you won't learn that unless you sign up for Poker Detox Elite. 🙃

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice You're unlocking layers of variance I never even thought to be afraid of.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@abarber1 @Chris_D_Brewer I'm just trolling w/ mentioning Hellmuth. Point is that if you simulated reality over and over, then sometimes the #1 player would be a true GOAT, and sometimes theyd be a decent player that ran like god, and you'd have no way of knowing which is which.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

4 years

@LandonTice I want a Landon vs Hellmuth 400/800 50k hand cagematch.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

10 months

@George_ymb He looks like me everytime I play poker.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@mobiuspoker Just bet 20%. Can't be wrong. ;)

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@IgnitionCasino Ignition HQ: Keep using the word "more" to cover up that it's 0.8% rakeback.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@dankness3 @dingies @PokerGO Time for another tough one.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@highhands89 Villain could have 77 as well. Prob fold to spare Bovada the embarrassment on the misdeal.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker Well-adjusted degenerate. Got it.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@LandonTice @mobiuspoker Is he angry and bitter? Sounds like he's playing poker again to me.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker I could hardly make it through this tweet.😴

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@PierPapa2 In all fairness, they had many millions of dollars in marketing pushing them. That doesn't exist anymore. It's all about the algorithm now, which wants controversy and drama. I don't know if it's "good" for poker, but being polarizing is good for getting attention on social.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@StefanBr93 In some sense, yes. But you could be a 10bb+ winner live and plausibly breakeven for a couple years purely by variance, especially if your big shots don't work out. The reality is humbling.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@RTGenerator @nickhowardpoker @PokerDetox People overlook the fundamentals and let things slip. The community focuses a lot on the supposed mind-melting genius of people at HSNL, but greatness is mostly about having the discipline to play a strong, consistent game, and the humility to craft a strategy you can execute.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@KRabichow @jasonbsu You really think the average reg spends more time worrying about beating recs than regs? I'd say the opposite is true by a massive margin.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice When you say "I'm just gonna have a really chill session today", this is the hand that immediately happens afterwards to remind you what game you're playing. There are no low key sessions in NL Holdem! 😡

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@slumdiggitydude The difference between a 3bb winner running at 5.5bb and winning at 0.5bbs over 2m hands is the difference between someone being knighted as a top 5 player at HSNL or a rb grinder.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice @VanessaKade That is a plus for the MTT grind. Nothing could ever top that feeling. 🤯

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker Maybe we need a "risk of feeling ruined" metric🤔

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@ShroomTheRiver @GGPoker Their source of income verification is the weirdest procedure ever. I've never had to provide so much documentation for anything in my life. I felt like I was building a case for the supreme court.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@LandonTice @mobiuspoker That's part 2. Don't get ahead of yourself. 😁

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@the_jaldermann "I was just following my charts" is the inscription written on the tomb of every failed poker career.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@audavidb It's not necessarily about separating winning and losing, but also the degree of success. The difference between being a 1bb winner and 3bb winner can have massive implications for a pro over millions of hands.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@poliholic Are you aware of a site called ? It has a free variance calculator that works pretty well and could probably answer a lot of the questions you're curious about.

Primedope

Useful resources for Poker Players & Online Poker Tools: Poker Variance Calculator, Tournament Variance Simulator, ICM Calculator and Pushbot-Charts.

www.primedope.com

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@TheGoldenBlazer The degree of success you experience will still be determined by luck. You can be a 10bb winner and "run bad" by winning at 4bb.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@George_ymb @GTOWizard @_pokercode Dream scenario is not being able to login to GTO Wizard while logged into a a major poker site. Ex: GG and Wiz have some kindve partnership and if you're logged into GG then Wiz logs you out.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@steverlindner Yes, and if you're playing high stakes online or 100% live poker, then you'll also never reach the long run. So it's also surrendering yourself to the reality that you have less control than you'd prefer.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@Jackthehuman_ @mobiuspoker They went broke. Now it's "No set. Bet?"

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@PhilGalfond Needs more swearing and less analysis.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@mobiuspoker This already exists in some form with GG poker PVI, where recs / losing players get higher rakeback. I actually support that, but the main complaint is lack of transparency.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@PhilGalfond Make sure you sit back in the moment they do to really send a message. 🙈

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

7 months

@KatieStonePoker @berkey11 The feeling is too much that existing ambassadors are basically just influencers that work for the site, whereas we need something more akin to union representatives to promote player interests.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@mobiuspoker Come on, Pat. We all know that Ukrainians always have it when they raise the river small. And don't even get me started on Andorrans donk betting flush complete rivers.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@Jeremia19275163 That's a brutal one.😥This is a sick game.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@ESYudkowsky I'm an online poker pro, and I take AI safety more seriously because it's obvious from my work how efficiently computers can destroy you. Tough because I love science & tech, but computers are so good at game theory it's laughable to even think of beating them.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

7 months

@KatieStonePoker @berkey11 I don't see what would be so difficult about communicating with players if there were community-leaders that acted as representatives. I understand ACR can't interact with 1000s of people at once, but we want ambassadors that represent the player's interests instead of the site.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

1 year

@CPGPodcast @PokerCoaching_ That's how you know you've finally caught poker greatness.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@CPGPodcast I don't trust anyone that doesn't share EV Adjusted. What're you hiding?! 😡

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@nickhowardpoker Anything involving climate.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@FindingEQ Another dimension is "how exploitative is it?". It's easier to rationalize a play that's +/- 0.3% of the pot based on intuition compared to something +/- 5%. Good explo players are well versed in theory because they tend to avoid making big exceptions based on a hunch.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker @SethS_D Have you read "Everybody Lies?" It's by the same author and was also really good.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@JacobBe94230853 I think you need to do the parenting equivalent of making him smoke and entire carton of cigarettes. Maybe force him to grind single table hyper turbos until he gives supernova elite. After that you'll never hear about poker again.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@StefanBr93 Or you could run hot as the sun and think you're a golden god for years. 😅

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

4 months

@IgnitionCasino Any response?

BOTS and COLLUSION on Ignition/Bodog!!!

This week I focus on the state of the Ignition/Bovada games, focusing on the rampant botting and colluding that's going on. I also share my March graph and r...

www.youtube.com

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice This is why I don't think I could grind MTTs. I'd be too sour about busting out of my most promising run, even if I won $. At least with cash it's pretty much a pass/fail with winning or losing on the day.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker Looks like Thanos just struck.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@George_ymb @LandonTice @RealKidPoker +1. The games seem pretty fair to me. Most people at 5k+ are known players and have a lot to lose via confiscation/account closure/reputation. Also most people don't want to because they grinded up from micros/ssnl and actually like the game / competition. I'm not worried imho.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

4 years

@LandonTice Bitches 1/2 pot it here. Real men shove. 😤

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@forthefans97 @Chris_D_Brewer It's helpful to know the truth so you can be more realistic with yourself. Some people really are 5bb+ winners, and the reward may be even HIGHER for them due to luck. I think you just need to do your best, while keeping a loose grip on the outcome.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@CPGPodcast I think this is a pretty inefficient way of collecting mass data. 🙈

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker I want to ask Ernesto "what's the difference between a 5/10 reg and 25/50 reg?"

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@mobiuspoker Have you ever seen 12 Angry Men? Cause you're living it.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@DavidKayePoker Hold? Sounds like you have two months left to dominate. Play to win. ;)

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@bradclifford96 Many. It doesn't always need to be the difference between rich or bust. Being elite or middle-of-the-pack is a big deal and worth a lot of $ and clout in the long haul.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@benjabe22600207 Would be close to chess.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@DougPolkVids To be fair, he isn't saying they can't offer the markup. He just said it's inflated. I think it's fair game to ask for whatever price you want, and for others to ridicule you for said price as well. The free market!

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@nickhowardpoker @Iranian_96 @mobiuspoker Damn. Actual footage of my first 10/20 shot.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@Jason @DougPolkVids Cliffs: Check out They are every independent filmmakers favorite production company and all their movies are exactly what you're asking for.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@dmoongirl It's annoying because it diminishes the beauty of competition; willpower and sacrifice to overcome adversity. Rather than be about blood sweat and tears, it's about the luck of being favored by God. But I get it. They have a relationship with God and want to show gratitude.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

2 years

@mobiuspoker We remake Antz in the style of Hitchcock. It's "The Birds" meets "Antz". Call DreamWorks. You have your pitch right there.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

4 years

@jasonbsu We're just glad you have a pretty flexible definition of "high-level". 🙌 🙌

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@CPGPodcast

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@nickhowardpoker I'd rather have the 10 million, personally.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@ew_ang123 Prob just DM me here.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@audavidb Part of the point is that in online, you could look at a 500k hand sample and see someone win at 5evbb/100 and think they're a confirmed god, but they may have just run really good. Inverse got someone breaking even w/ same sample.

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

5 months

@zinhaooo White magic. ✨

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Matthew Marinelli

@MatthewMarinel5

3 years

@LandonTice Nice job, Landon. :)

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