Matt Smith @MatchasmMatt Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Matt Smith

@MatchasmMatt

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Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 6 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!

Michigan

https://t.co/AdAEx0Bfcc

Joined September 2016

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

58 minutes

I think the most interesting tidbit in here is the 6x improvement of miles per necessary intervention. If we say that right now the current state is ~500 miles between critical interventions, then we would be at 3,000 next month. If we had another 6x improvement in the metric

@Tesla_AI

Tesla AI

26 days

Due to popular demand, Tesla AI team release roadmap: September 2024 - v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between necessary interventions - v12.5.2 on AI3 computer (unified models for AI3 and AI4) - Actually Smart Summon - Cybertruck Autopark 📐 - Eye-tracking with sunglasses 🕶️ -

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

Today was my first time experiencing the frozen door handle of doom. @elonmusk can we add an option to open the door from the app?

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

In case you needed another reason not to trust traditional media outlets:

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Matt Smith

4 years

Nearly two years after ordering my 7 Seat Model Y, it’s finally here!! Many thanks @elonmusk and the whole @Tesla team, it’s an amazing machine!

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Matt Smith

1 year

@elonmusk @ThierryBreton Gotta love generic insinuations coupled with threats of enforcement action.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

$TSLA had lower operating expenses in Q1 than $RIVN posted in Q4, despite 375X higher revenue. Absolutely ridiculous. Revenues: TSLA - $18.8B RIVN - $0.05B Operating Expenses: TSLA - $1.9B RIVN -$2.1B

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 month

I’m hearing more rhetoric lately that some people think Elon might be going a bit crazy a la Howard Hughes. The reality from my POV is that he is putting his principals above his own financial interests. People are free to debate the validity of his principals, but he is

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

1 month

The decision to close the 𝕏 office in Brazil was difficult, but, if we had agreed to @alexandre ’s (illegal) secret censorship and private information handover demands, there was no way we could explain our actions without being ashamed.

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Matt Smith

2 years

Here's how I think @elonmusk 's push for free speech at Twitter is likely to play out.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

4 months

So glad most shareholders aren’t as dumb as Ross!

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

4 months

Both Tesla shareholder resolutions are currently passing by wide margins! ♥️♥️ Thanks for your support!! ♥️♥️

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

The recent actions from @NHTSAgov appeared politically motivated and strongly biased against Tesla. This appointment of Missy Cummings appears to confirm that theory. Thoughts @elonmusk ?

@SawyerMerritt

Sawyer Merritt

3 years

Here's a few individuals Missy is following:

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

5 months

I've gotta say, the $TSLA panic sellers have a fair amount of egg on their face right now. It's not as if Elon just decided to pivot to AI last week. It's not as if V12 was an empty promise that we couldn't actually try firsthand. All this information was out there, and we could

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

For the record I easily got into the car through the passenger door, then opened the driver door by just pushing the button. I scraped the ice off in ~30 seconds and the handle opened up easily. Apparently the easier fix is just to bash the handle with your fist to break the ice.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

8 months

The only thing more insulting than some rando with 9 shares claiming he represents $TSLA shareholders is a judge with 0 shares overriding our collective votes.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 year

FSD Wins Two New Converts in 24 Hours I’ve shared many stories recently about how FSD hasn’t yet passed the wife test. That abruptly and unexpectedly changed this weekend. We had a 40 minute drive on Saturday morning and my wife wanted to drive the Tesla. She did and I

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

9 months

I love that $TSLAQ is absolutely convinced that @elonmusk is a fraud, meanwhile their erstwhile star Trevor Milton is in jail, Carlos Ghosn had to be smuggled out of Japan in a box, and both VW & now Daihatsu admit to forging emissions or safety results.

@SawyerMerritt

Sawyer Merritt

9 months

NEWS: Daihatsu, the Japanese automaker owned by Toyota, has halted all domestic production after admitting it forged the results of safety tests for its vehicles for more than 30 years.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

@WholeMarsBlog If Tesla passengers can survive driving off a cliff than so can Tesla investors.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

5 months

I recently had a talk with a friend who works for an auto OEM. He had been trying FSD Beta V12 to do some research for his work and was really impressed with it. Without much prompting from me he told me that their company's strategy was just to wait to see what approach works

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 year

So @elonmusk sounds extremely confident on this xAI call that they've actually figured out the FSD problem. It will take time for this to roll forward into great public builds, but his use of past-tense in reference to this problem is very noteworthy imo.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

5 months

This is why you don't panic sell. $TSLA

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

5 months

I’m genuinely sad for people who panic sold. I believe $TSLA has the ability to create generational wealth for people, but managing the emotional highs and lows is part of the journey. And we’re not out of the woods yet. This won’t be a straight shot up from here, because

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

ARK bought $TSLA again, interesting.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 year

Halfway through the year @Tesla has already delivered 49.4% of @elonmusk 's 1.8M unit target. 1.9M+ is looking much more likely at this point.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 year

I recently asked “ @elonmusk ” whether he thought his tone was too negative on the Q3 call, here’s his unfiltered response:

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

I'm struggling to contain my bullishness on $TSLA right now. On top of the massive price increases we've just seen (which will of course be offset somewhat by rising costs) they also started prioritizing orders with FSD for the first time ever.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

I (really my wife) did my part to address population collapse by welcoming our 6th baby into the world this morning!After an exhausting but beautiful day, it was great to have FSD Beta drive me safely back home through the rainy night.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 months

My wife and I are doing our part. In fact, we are thrilled to be expecting baby #7 in February! Now we just need @tesla and @elonmusk to sell a Cybervan that can fit our family of 9! 👶🚐

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

2 months

Population collapse is accelerating

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

The fact that Tesla faces so much more FUD and scrutiny than the oil majors is an embarrassment.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

Maybe the most hilarious thing about Elon calling out all these politicians lately is that none of them ever respond. It’s like they know they have a losing argument.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

$TSLA repaid almost all of their outstanding recourse debt in Q1, and financed two new factories, and their cash balance held steady at $18B. Hilarious that S&P still rates their debt as Non-investment grade.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

@elonmusk @GerberKawasaki Did the Fed sell $23B of TSLA after promising they’d be the last money out?

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

In Ron Baron’s letter to his investors, he reiterated his outlook that $TSLA will hit $500 by 2025, and $1,500 by 2030.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

I honestly can't believe he said this. He's right, but I still can't believe he said it.

@forwardcap

Forward Cap

3 years

This week CEO Jim Farley reiterated that Ford doesn't have the expertise to produce EVs & can't compete against Tesla on talent & distribution Are there any other industries where multiple CEOs consistently state they can't compete against the company disrupting them?

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Matt Smith

3 years

$4.5B in operating cash flow in Q4, that's pretty astonishing. Imagine what that looks like when quarterly deliveries are 5M units rather than 300K. 👀 $TSLA

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

7 months

I don’t know when, but at some point the market will recognize what $TSLA has done with FSD.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

This is not nearly as big of a deal as the vitality of the original tweet would suggest.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

8 months

What Dan O’Dowd is doing is with his smear campaign is actually quite evil. He is using anecdotal evidence and scare tactics to convince people that Teslas and autonomy are dangerous. The opposite is demonstrably true. So if people believe him and opt for another car or pass on

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

Tesla posted 25.8% Automotive Gross Margin Ex Credit sales. It's time for $TSLAQ to be quiet.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

10 months

This will create more value than everything else Tesla is developing.

@Tesla_Optimus

Tesla Optimus

10 months

There’s a new bot in town 🤖 Check this out (until the very end)!

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Matt Smith

7 months

In Q4 $RIVN spent $1B on operating expenses and delivered 14K vehicles. In the same quarter, $TSLA spent $2.4B on Op Ex and delivered 485K vehicles. They also expanded an energy business, worked on a humanoid robot, and pushed the envelope in real world AI. Efficiency matters.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

6 months

This only took 2 days to age terribly!

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

Where are all the people now who were comparing $TSLA to $NFLX??

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 months

This was good to see.

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

2 months

@Gfilche @Tesla I hear you

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Matt Smith

2 years

Most of my FSD drives are now 0 intervention. I’m kind of astonished at how quickly this happened. And this is before single stack!

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 year

Just realized the Tesla engineers specifically designed the Model Y trunk to prevent watermelons from crushing all of your other groceries. Geniuses!

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Matt Smith

2 years

I’ve been quiet and somewhat restrained about megapack’s potential, because it struck me as hopium. But as I dug in over the past month or so I came to appreciate why margins were negligible in the past and why they won’t be in the future. I’m becoming a megapack bull.

@Zerosumgame33

Zerosumgame33

2 years

1/ I believe TSLA’s 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable, defensible, and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Tesla’s order configurator from . Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost...

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Matt Smith

1 year

After correcting their misleading tweet, Reuters left the inaccurate headline on their own website. Community Notes called this out, and now, finally, the headline is updated. This is the first time in a while that I’ve had any hope for the media. Well done @elonmusk .

@Reuters

Reuters

1 year

CORRECTION: Tesla posts record quarterly deliveries after price cuts, up 4% from Q4. An earlier tweet about Tesla's deliveries contained incorrect information. We are deleting that tweet

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Matt Smith

11 months

Drove FSD beta at night tonight. It slowed down and veered unexpectedly, then I noticed a pedestrian dressed all in black walking down the shoulder. It saw him before I did and therefore handled it better than I would’ve. Tesla’s perception is already superhuman, and its

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

In the span of about 3 hours we got confirmation that @elonmusk would remove Teslas' sensors and Twitters censors.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

$TSLA currently trading at just 39x 2023 EPS estimates of $5.90, and 26x the @goodsoilinvest estimate. Fundamentals will win out.

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Matt Smith

1 year

This strikes me as a bit of an overreaction. $TSLA

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Matt Smith

10 months

So $GM is up 10% because they have instituted a share buyback and increased their dividend. I'll admit that sounds great! But let's take a deeper look. They also lowered the top end of their guidance by 7%, effectively ceased all investment in autonomy, and indicated that the

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Matt Smith

9 months

I think my favorite @TeslaPodcast memory is the Gordon Johnson interview. Gordon was cartoonishly rude, repeatedly talking over Rob while saying just the most ridiculous things. I was actually yelling at my computer screen because I was finding it so infuriating!!🤣 But Rob

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

6 months

After experiencing 12.3 today I reread this thread about my awful FSD drives just over two years ago. It's hard to believe that the same car drove me then and now, with such different experiences. My drives today were ~1,000x better than these earlier drives in the post below.

@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

1/ I try to give middle-of-the road analysis and give my honest views of Tesla. That has generally led to extremely bullish commentary. But my experiences with FSD beta have consistently been quite bad and in the interest of honesty and transparency I want to share my thoughts.

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Matt Smith

3 years

@elonmusk @vonbrauckmann Do you ever worry that our own extensive writings will be lost because they are stored digitally?

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Matt Smith

2 years

Great letter from Worm Capital, especially around $TSLA's prospects. They see a 40% gross margin eventually, a $50B cash balance by year end, and they think Tesla Energy is worth $50-$100 per share today.

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Matt Smith

3 years

$TSLA stock at $739 in European trading today.

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Matt Smith

4 years

When I spoke to @garyblack00 last Thursday $TSLA had closed at $787, & Gary suggested there may be another 10% pullback. Today's low of $710.50 represents a 9% drop from that price. Call him a trader or a boomer all you want, but I for one am going to keep listening to him.

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Matt Smith

3 years

$TSLA down about $100 in the last month despite record earnings in the seasonally-weakest quarter, drastic increase in demand, price hikes which will help margins, and the imminent release of FSD beta and subscriptions. I think it’s a good time to be a buyer.

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Matt Smith

2 months

Something very big is going beneath the radar. $TSLA

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Matt Smith

1 year

I've been working with @bradsferguson on high-level valuation for the Tesla Bot opportunity. Our Base Case is for incremental value of $11.9T, or $3,415 per share. This is on a present value basis.

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Matt Smith

6 months

I’m grateful that despite going through an MBA program, my brain is still functional enough to recognize that $UBER does not have an advantage over $TSLA in operating a robotaxi network.

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Matt Smith

8 months

Since Elon didn’t predict that FSD will be solved by the end of the year, maybe this is the year when it finally happens!

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Matt Smith

10 months

Pretty fascinating that both @SpaceX and @openai experienced Rapid Unscheduled Disassemblies this weekend.

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Matt Smith

2 years

With the economy showing signs of weakness right now I’m trying to be attentive to any signs of waning Tesla demand. But according to Tesla’s inventory listings, there are a grand total of *7* new vehicles available for sale worldwide! I’ve never seen this figure so low.

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Matt Smith

5 months

I mildly criticized Troy’s tone, and the certainty with which he conveys his opinions. I also said that I support and am grateful for his work. 🤷 Very sad to see this tbh. I really do value Troy and his POV, and think it’s completely reasonable to critique someone’s ideas while

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Matt Smith

3 years

@SawyerMerritt True, but if you’d invested $1,000 in GM’s 1918 IPO you’d have $0 today.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

9 months

39GWh for Shanghai Megafactory + 40 in Lathrop + 20GWh (estimate) for Giga Nevada = 100 GWh in medium-term Megapack Capacity. At $400/kWh this represents $40B in Revenue potential. Keep in mind this is just 1/10 of the 1TWh target by 2030! Wall Street is sleeping on this.

@SawyerMerritt

Sawyer Merritt

9 months

NEWS: Tesla has officially launched its new Megapack project in Shanghai with an annual production capacity goal of 10,000 Megapacks, according to a report from Xinhua today. A land acquisition and signing ceremony for the project was held in Shanghai on Friday morning, marking

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Matt Smith

2 years

@jasondebolt @heydave7 @elonmusk I don’t think external pressure on parents is the issue so much. Most peers of mine who don’t have kids are hesitant or unwilling to make the lifestyle sacrifices necessary for being a good parent.

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Matt Smith

1 year

I did an internship in GM’s Employment Cost Analysis group ~15 years ago, and spent a lot of time talking with people directly involved in the UAW negotiations around that time. The tales they told were bizarre. UAW reps giving intense staredowns when the GM reps were doing

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Matt Smith

2 years

$TSLA at $784 in European trading.

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Matt Smith

6 months

Had a quick first drive. Initial impressions were that it was unnecessarily slow in my neighborhood (would stay at 22 MPH for no reason when it was set for 28, even stayed at 18 for an extended stretch). Also a bit too slow to creep forward for a turn. But everything else was

@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

6 months

Let’s gooooo!!

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Matt Smith

2 years

I'll be more excited for $TSLA to break $700 after the split.

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Matt Smith

3 months

I had been following Megapack price cuts lately but the current price is shockingly low. The pricing from last April equates to $482/kWh. The same project today is priced at just $266/kWh. Cheap cells from suppliers certainly helps to enable this pricing, but it also follows

@SawyerMerritt

Sawyer Merritt

1 year

NEWS: @Tesla has decreased the starting price of its 2hr Megapack commercial energy storage product (without installation) by ~$30,000 to $1,879,840. The wait time in the US for new orders has also changed to Q1 2025 (from Q4 2024).

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Matt Smith

3 years

@elonmusk That Jesus guy seemed to know some things about the human condition.

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Matt Smith

2 years

🤣😂🤣😂🤦‍♂️

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Matt Smith

2 months

I’m seeing more and more of these comments on 12.5 being more or less perfect, and not from accounts with a history of hyperbole. It’s probably nothing and I should just look at the $TSLA P/E ratio to make my investment decisions, right?

@_MountainsSea

Julianna

2 months

“Play to win, or don’t play at all.” Elon Musk Wow. Just wow. Downloaded FSD v12.5 last night. Drove 1 hour from Lake Tahoe to the Reno airport and 1 hour back over a mountain pass, along steep grades and curves, through construction and a congested airport. FSD v12.5 is

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Matt Smith

1 year

I’m seeing a lot of negativity about the $TSLA earnings call, and to be sure, the near term margin pressure is going to be greater than I estimated. But in the longer term I’m actually more optimistic than ever, and I don’t say that lightly.

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Matt Smith

4 months

I saw this poll on Yahoo! Finance, and was quite shocked at how lopsided it was. Obviously the people voting here are not as informed as $TSLA shareholders, but to have such a strong reaction from 369K respondents is pretty wild.

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Matt Smith

1 year

The @Tesla Megapack XL is 3.9 MWh, meaning in an event like this discharging fully is worth $7,800. That means that just one full discharge is worth ~0.3% of the total capital cost of a Megapack. That's pretty bonkers.

@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

1 year

Wow, real-time prices for electricity in ERCOT are now at around $2,000/MWh in most locations. For reference, a normal price is more like $20-$50.

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Matt Smith

3 years

Had to add more $TSLA to my personal account today. It's just too cheap to ignore.

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Matt Smith

2 years

$TSLA is running at an annualized EPS of $13 now, which makes the current price equivalent to a P/E of 79. I like the upside from here.

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Matt Smith

6 months

Bear: @elonmusk is losing his mind. Total Howard Hughes vibes. He needs to stop being so distracted. Me: Disagree, but anyway the most important metric is their autonomous technology, and that is going better than ever. Bear: Yeah I've heard that's true. But protecting free

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Matt Smith

3 years

TSLA forward P/E (using my estimates) is about 50 right now.

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Matt Smith

6 months

I do a Finance spaces a couple times a week and Tesla / Elon are a frequent topic of conversation. Today the host @operationdanish disclosed that he will be going short $TSLA, and he mentioned Elon's concerning behavior (with the Brazilian Supreme Court situation as the latest

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Matt Smith

1 year

I thought @elonmusk got the message at the Annual Meeting that investors strongly support advertising. I’m disappointed that there is no serious effort at an educational advertising campaign, given that the demand elasticity of the recent price cuts have been near zero.

@SawyerMerritt

Sawyer Merritt

1 year

BREAKING: Tesla has cut the price of the Model Y Long Range and Model Y Performance to all-time lows. • Model Y Long Range: $48,490 (from $50,490) • Model Y Performance: $52,490 (from $54,490) • Model Y RWD is still $43,990

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Matt Smith

5 months

This response from @jamesdouma encapsulates why I feel so calm in the $TSLA stock price storm. I truly believe that this opportunity is misunderstood by Wall Street, and even most @tesla enthusiasts.

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Matt Smith

2 years

$TSLA forward P/E is under 60 even when using Wall Street’s laughable earnings estimates.

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Matt Smith

1 year

If I were running @Ford , I'd be looking at the EV business' -102% EBIT margin coupled with rising inventory and realize the current plan is most likely unsustainable. Buying / licensing the entire powertrain + autopilot system from @tesla would deliver the lowest cost and

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Matt Smith

2 years

@elonmusk @POTUS @Tesla Well done Elon, I’m glad to see you’re following in @mtbarra ’s footsteps. Thanks for your leadership Mary! It matters.

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Matt Smith

1 year

Tesla Energy’s announced stationary storage facilities now equate to roughly 100 GWh of annual production capacity. This equates to ~$50B of revenue, slightly higher than total automotive revenue in 2021. Stop telling me Tesla is just a car company.

@ChrisZheng001

Chris Zheng

1 year

Breaking news, Tesla China's energy storage Megafactory Officially signed, which is said to have a production capacity of 40 GWh/year. Tom Zhu, SVP of Tesla's automotive business, Wang Hao, general manager of Tesla China, and Tao Lin, VP of Tesla, attended the event.

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Matt Smith

3 years

Wow, Tesla has less than 300 used vehicles for sale worldwide. Prices on a few I've checked are very near to new prices. This may create some positive Gross Margin pressure in Q2.

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Matt Smith

9 months

@elonmusk So do $TSLA shareholders!

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Matt Smith

3 years

Rivian is now worth more than SpaceX.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

4 months

It's absolutely bonkers to me that some investors are more excited about Apple using OpenAI's tech on their platform than they are about Tesla actually developing real world AI.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 months

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@jeremyjudkins_

Jeremy Judkins

@jeremyjudkins_

2 months

In what world does wide release mean only HW4 vehicles? ☠️

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

Twitter up 27% premarket as @elonmusk discloses 9.2% ownership stake.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 months

GM has a solid history of "crushing it" when it comes to EVs.

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@realMeetKevin

Meet Kevin😇

3 months

Jim Cramer just said he would rather buy $GM than $TSLA, even though he thinks Tesla stock has bottomed. He says Mary Barra (CEO of GM) is "crushing it."

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

5 months

I listened to a good 2 minutes of Lewis Black's recent rant against Elon/Tesla from the Daily Show before I had to tap out. It was a good reminder of just how much stupidity is out there in the marketplace of ideas. He tried to make fun of Elon's comments on the latest earnings

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

6 months

I'm becoming aware now of the fact that I regularly make mistakes at a rate comparable to FSD Beta. I was driving my wife's non-Tesla today for example and started braking a bit too late such that it was slightly uncomfortable to slow down for a turn. The other day I misjudged

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

2 years

The first Model 3 Leases were introduced in Q2 2019 for a 36 month term, meaning the leases are ending this quarter. Since Tesla owns these vehicles and can now sell them at current mkt prices, this is a brand new source of margin which by my calcs is ~$200M, and will grow.

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@MatchasmMatt

Matt Smith

3 years

You can call this “unproductive” or “unprofessional”, but I for one am glad that someone has a platform from which to fire back at these high horse politicians.

@elonmusk

Elon Musk

3 years

@SenWarren Don’t spend it all at once … oh wait you did already

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