Scot Marciel @MarcielScot Twitter profile

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

As a diplomat, I have always supported dialogue, but the Tatmadaw is beyond reason. I see no value in dialogue with them until and unless they recognize they cannot win and make clear they are looking for a way out.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

ASEAN’s agreement to let Min Aung Hlaing represent Myanmar at the upcoming summit raises the stakes for the bloc. To avoid major damage to its standing, ASEAN needs to consult with the NUG and come out of the summit with tangible actions to show it is not accepting the junta.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

I think a lot of us foreigners still don’t fully appreciate the seismic shift that has occurred in Myanmar. I don’t know the way forward, but the Myanmar people have made very clear they will not accept this junta or any military-dominated govt. We should listen to them.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

The Myanmar people continue to show daily, with astonishing courage, that they will not accept the Tatmadaw’s attempted power grab. To me, ”realism” in this case means understanding that any path that ignores the peoples’ voice will fail.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

Wow! The people of Myanmar do not give up, even in the face of appalling violence by the security forces. The Tatmadaw consistently underestimates the courage and determination of the people.

May Toe Khine

@maytoekhine

3 years

Thousands gathered on the streets of #Tanze city, #Sagaing to protest against military dictatorship!!! 💪🏼💪🏼 #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Mar31Coup

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

Some are talking about the situation in Myanmar as civil war, a failed state, or a mass uprising. There are elements of all of those. Another comparison is to a foreign occupying army — zero legitimacy/support, beyond brutal, and willing to destroy everything for power.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

The longer the coup regime is in power, the greater the chance Myanmar becomes a failed state. So any actions that confer legitimacy on the junta actually encourage greater instability, not to mention suffering of the Myanmar people.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

Thanks @MayWongCNA . The Tatmadaw’s great “success” seems to have been to unite nearly all elements of Myanmar society against it and its disastrous coup. The military can’t govern, but it can do and is doing great harm.

May Wong

@MayWongCNA

3 years

#Myanmar 's #ethnic armed groups of Three Brotherhood Alliance including #ArakanArmy #AA condemn current bloodshed by #military . They demand a stop to killings or they'll fight with citizens against military. Military had just removed #AA as terrorists #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

When I was in Myanmar, people often talked about the Tatmadaw’s skill at planning and thinking ahead. The disastrous coup and aftermath suggest otherwise. They have created a disaster for the country and themselves.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

Am I wrong to think the violence/instability in Myanmar — and the risk of a failed state — is against the interests of China, ASEAN, India, Japan and the West?

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@MarcielScot

3 years

The Tatamadaw junta has no legitimacy inside the country, and almost no support outside. The leaders might not care about criticism, but they cannot be happy about their near-total failure to gain support or acceptance at home or abroad.

May Wong

@MayWongCNA

3 years

#US Ambassador to the #UN says a #Myanmar #military that kills the very people it is supposed to protect has "no legitimacy". This after the deadliest day on March 27 where at least 114 people were killed in a single day. The shootings continued on Sunday #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

My latest on Myanmar, via USIP. “It’s Time to Help Myanmar’s Resistance Prevail“

It’s Time to Help Myanmar’s Resistance Prevail

The international community can be divided into three camps in dealing with Myanmar’s brutal coup regime. One consists of a shameless group that includes Russia, China and India that supports the...

www.usip.org

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

Well said @thantmyintu . Pre-coup Myanmar had lots of challenges, but also hope for a better future. The coup threatens to take away not only freedom, but that hope. Many are risking everything to regain both.

Thant Myint-U

@thantmyintu

3 years

Army may be stretched to limits if forced to deal w/ continued urban protests as well as stepped up fighting around the country; ethnic armed orgs (inc those tied to China) then holding the balance of power. Tragic decent into renewed civil war possible but only the coup to blame

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

I’m curious how punitive measures against a murderous, illegitimate junta that the entire country rejects will make things worse, while embracing that junta and selling them weapons is okay.

CSIS Southeast Asia

@SoutheastAsiaDC

3 years

News from #Myanmar | Russia on Tuesday said it opposed sanctions against the junta in Myanmar, warning that punitive measures could spark a large-scale civil war in the country.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

My book on the United States and Southeast Asia is finally here. Official publication date is March 15, but I can now confirm it is real.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

This presentation by @rshorsey is superb. It should be required reading for all policymakers and everyone else trying to understand the crisis in Myanmar or offering ideas on the way ahead.

Richard Horsey

@rshorsey

3 years

Today, I briefed the UN Security Council on the situation in Myanmar. The text of my comments is online here.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

This will be an important meeting for Myanmar, but even more important for ASEAN. One of its member states has been taken over by a murderous force that has no legitimacy and threatens regional stability. A direct challenge to ASEAN‘s charter and its centrality.

Ben Bland

@benjaminbland

3 years

Indications from Indonesia that ASEAN leaders summit to discuss Myanmar may be held next weekend. The plan is to hold it at the ASEAN Secretariat so it's symbolically an ASEAN-led meeting rather than an Indonesian-led one

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

Just thinking about some good friends — ASSK’s economic team — still being held in prison in Myanmar. Their crime apparently was to work hard to bring prosperity to the country. So sad for them and thousands of others. Myanmar deserves better.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

There’s a long history of special envoys to Myanmar failing. Many have been good diplomats, but they are put in a difficult position. Criticize and they are denied entry. Gain entry and get nowhere. Time to rethink the entire approach.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

Min Zaw Oo adds that the junta faces a battle that could last for years, even decades, “because people hate the regime to the extent we haven’t seen in past forty years.” The military has gone too far to be accepted by the people as a legitimate political actor.

Aaron Connelly

@ConnellyAL

3 years

Min Zaw Oo—a leading expert on Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations, and no alarmist—compares the situation in Myanmar today to that in Syria before it plunged into civil war.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

It still boggles my mind that the world is largely ignoring the Myanmar people’s incredibly courageous fight for democracy and hope against an absolutely horrific and brutal military.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

@thantmyintu @chongkittavorn The key word to me is “gamble.” Moscow is gambling that the Tatmadaw holds onto power for at least the medium-term. Maybe it will, but it definitely is a high risk gamble.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

7 months

I see lots of worrying by foreign analysts about what could go wrong in a transition from a military regime in Myanmar. Sure, lots could go wrong. But the junta is a guaranteed disaster; the resistance represents hope for a better future. We should do all we can to help it.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

Frontier Myanmar reports that Chinese officials are upset that the NUG opened an office in Washington. Why? An NUG office in the US is no threat to Chinese interests. The Spring Revolution isn’t or shouldn’t be a US-China issue.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

To be clear, this isn’t a criticism of ASEAN for trying, just a reminder of how difficult the challenge is.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

My latest thoughts on the Myanmar crisis. via @NikkeiAsia

With ASEAN stuck, it is up to U.S. to lead on Myanmar

BURMA Act can open way for stronger support to resistance movement

asia.nikkei.com

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

I love Thailand, but the current government’s open support for the brutal Myanmar junta is awful. It also prolongs instability, which can’t be good for Thailand.

Leong Wai Kit

@LeongWaiKitCNA

1 year

Popular News reported meeting between #Myanmar army chief Min Aung Hlaing and Thai DPM Don Pramudwinai where they talked about curbing illegal cross-border arms trade Myanmar army is also set to supply weapons to its own supporters for “defensive” purposes

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

Lots of bad news and ugly happenings around the world, but the people of Myanmar, Iran, and Ukraine provide daily inspiration and hope. Everywhere I’ve been in the world, people want freedom, justice, opportunity and to be treated with dignity. They deserve our support.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

For anyone still harboring hope that the Myanmar junta can be reasoned with, its refusal to allow humanitarian aid into help the victims of Cyclone Mocha should be the final straw. The worst regime in Southeast Asia since the Khmer Rouge.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

If the UN team in Myanmar truly believes engaging with the junta is necessary/valuable for the Myanmar people, they should come forward with a clear public explanation of their reasoning. If they can’t do this, then they should ask themselves why they are engaging.

John Quinley III

@john_hq3

2 years

I wonder if @UNinMyanmar and the junta ministry for Immigration and Population spoke about the erasure of the Rohingya identity through the NVC process or restrictions on citizenship? #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

“. . . if we do not even try, then it will be hard to explain to our grandchildren why a crisis took place in Myanmar.” @DrRizalSukma ’s excellent message to ASEAN (though the rest of the world also needs to do more).

Evan A. Laksmana

@EvanLaksmana

3 years

“... waiting and sweeping the problem under the carpet, even when one calls it “strategic patience”, will not make any difference... waiting for the crisis to “ripe” is irresponsible”, argues @DrRizalSukma on why #ASEAN needs to act now 👇🏻

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

Bringing an end to the Myanmar crisis is not a matter of the “right” international statesman/woman visiting and convincing the generals to compromise. Until and unless military is substantially weakened to the point of desperation, visiting NPT only gives the junta a photo op.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

Humanitarian aid is urgently needed but zero reason to believe the junta is going to be helpful.

May Wong

@MayWongCNA

2 years

#Myanmar International cooperation minister Ko Ko Hlaing in #PhnomPenh #Cambodia to discuss delivery of #humanitarian aid to Myanmar civilians. He had also met with @UNOCHA @JoyceMsuya . Almost 1 million Myanmar citizens now displaced since #coup #WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

“Thai observers believe coexistence of the Tatmadaw and the NLD is the best of the alternatives before Myanmar.” Probably true in theory, but it’s really hard to imagine such a scenario after all that has happened.

Evan A. Laksmana

@EvanLaksmana

3 years

"Yes, trust is key, but Thailand is mistaken in thinking that its special relationship with Myanmar could protect the region", according to one ASEAN diplomat

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

@MayWongCNA @NUGMyanmar @ASEAN @ZinMarAungNUG This is well done by the US. Important to hold a high level meeting with the NUG while the President is hosting Southeast Asian leaders, minus the junta.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

10 months

Latest Myanmar resistance offensive highlights the POSSIBILITY that the junta could collapse quickly. Not predicting that, but resistance and its friends around the world need to make contingency plans, including for humanitarian aid and restarting the economy.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

9 months

This is baffling. The State Department should quickly issue a statement clarifying its position on this. How the heck did this get approved?

Leigh Mitchell

@leighhmitchell

9 months

Alarmingly & incorrectly (I believe), the report attributes the majority (50%) of 'terrorist' incidents to Peoples Defense Force ( #PDF ). Others=Chinland Defense Force ( #CDF ) & Karenni Nationalities Defense Force ( #KNDF ) while 14%=not attributed to a single perpetrator group.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

1 year

I always value Bilahari Kausikan’s insights, but I think he’s wrong on Myanmar. Engaging the generals would bring ASEAN no influence and would damage its standing. It’s not a civil war, it’s a national uprising against a hated military. via @NikkeiAsia

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

11 months

Completely agree. The UN’s failure to call out the Myanmar military for this attack is baffling and concerning. Is the UN waiting for confirmation of who initiated the attack? If so, then this statement needs to be followed up by another, stronger statement.

Teapot

@teeeapot

11 months

Why did you fail to address who executed the bombing? You have to grow some balls to name the perpetrators @UNinMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

If India is supplying weapons to the junta, that would truly be inexcusable.

Nicholas

@nicholas6284

2 years

Kalay PDF attacks fascist convoy reported carrying weapons delivered from India near the town of Tamu. #India has finally shown their true colors. #MyanmarRevolution

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

I feel the same way. The cultural richness of Myanmar is incredible.

Sean Gleeson

@seanjgleeson

3 years

This has been said already by @poppymcp , but one of the consequences of the last few weeks has been to show the world the immensely wide range of cultural practices and expressions of local identity across Myanmar. It's something that makes me deeply, intensely miss living there

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

I’m glad to see others echoing my point that the Myanmar junta is Southeast Asia’s worst regime since the Khmer Rouge. Foreign governments should understand that there is no hope for a peaceful, stable, functioning Myanmar until the military is forced out of power.

Spokesperson, NUG President Office

@NUGPressSPOX

2 years

All international and domestic actors must join together to eradicate the region’s worst regime since the Khmer Rouge terrorised Cambodia. Practical global action is needed for democracy, justice, freedom and liberty in #Myanmar . #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 months

China continues to violently intercept Philippine vessels in waters that indisputably are within the Philippines’ EEZ, and Manila’s ASEAN partners remain silent. Not surprising but a reminder of the bloc’s extreme caution and significant limitations.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

China doesn’t necessarily care about a “successful“ or even peaceful Myanmar. It prefers a weak country that enjoys sufficient stability to allow Chinese projects to proceed, while enabling Beijing to continue to exert influence over key armed groups.

Zachary Abuza

@ZachAbuza

1 year

A week after meeting in Panghsang, China's special envoy to #Myanmar , Deng Xijun, met with reps from the UWSA, TNLA, KIA, NDAA, SSPP, & AA in Kunming. With key BRI projects stalled, China's increasing pressure on them for a ceasefire with the SAC.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

A humanitarian aid mission might be useful if its presence deters junta violence, but key that ASEAN first consult with and get the national unity govt’s blessing (even informally), and that the mission avoid being trapped into legitimizing or suggesting acceptance of the SAC.

Tom Allard

@tom_allard

3 years

As ASEAN considers a humanitarian aid mission to Myanmar, the new anti-junta national unity government urges ASEAN to deal with them, not the “murderer-in-chief” and coup leader Snr General Min Aung Hlaing. #WhatIsHappeningInMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

A powerful message from @ZinMarAungNUG . I hope influential voices in the int’l community will watch this video and recognize it’s past time to do more to help.

Zin Mar Aung

@ZinMarAungNUG

2 years

We are in our darkest days. In this latest speech, I beseech the international community, #ASEAN and the #UN for HELP. The people of #Myanmar have borne too much. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #SaveMyanmar

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

“What is happening now is a fight for the heart of the Bamar majority, between the Tatmadaw on one hand and the NLD led by Daw Aung San Sun Kyi . . .” With respect, that is not what is happening. It is a hated military vs a population that wants its freedom and opportunity back.

Michael Vatikiotis

@jagowriter

2 years

On Myanmar, Singapore FM Balakrishnan says “I am afraid it is time for ASEAN to make some difficult decisions. So let us see what happens over the next two weeks.” Most bet not much will ensue, but let’s see.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

If only the Russians attended (and even if one or two others snuck in), the fact that so many other governments chose not to attend sends a very strong signal of illegitimacy and rejection to the coup regime.

Poppy McPherson

@poppymcp

3 years

Russian delegation watching #Myanmar army chief speak this morning. The only foreign delegation I could spot. Many embassies declined to send diplomats to the parade, given the mounting bloodshed.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

Interesting that many in Southeast Asia refer to their countries as “small” because they are next to India and China, even though Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines (not to mention Indonesia) would be demographic giants in Europe and some other regions.

Nga Pham

@ngahpham

1 year

Vietnam's population has officially hit 100 million this month. It is now among the world's 15 most populous nations and third in Southeast Asia after Indonesia and the Philippines.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

It is an interesting idea. Tommy Koh asked if the world would accept elections w/o ASSK participation. Even more important is that Myanmar public wouldn’t accept them. Plus, they already had credible elections.

Hunter Marston

@hmarston4

3 years

This is interesting. The idea of a special envoy for #Myanmar is a good one & would be a practical step in the right direction. It could generate some tough talks from a trusted member state within ASEAN, which is the right way to put diplomatic pressure on the Tatmadaw.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

This @CrisisGroup analysis of the situation in Myanmar and prospects going forward is superb. This is likely to be a long, difficult struggle. It’s critical that outside actors do nothing to legitimize or accept the junta.

Matthew Tostevin

@TostevinM

3 years

"Getting the regime to change course will be an uphill struggle. Still, foreign actors should not recognise the junta; they should impose arms embargoes and targeted sanctions on the military and its interests" via @crisisgroup #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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@MarcielScot

1 year

ASEAN’s statement on Myanmar is pretty meh. The troika route isn’t going to produce any better results. It’s not all ASEAN’s fault — the Myanmar crisis is not conducive to the usual diplomatic approaches. What’s needed is more pressure on the junta, not more visits.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

“There is no room for inaction or neutrality between the generals and the widespread movement opposin their rule.“ Former Thai FM Kasit is absolutely right.

The Diplomat

@Diplomat_APAC

2 years

Eighteen months on from the military coup in #Myanmar , it is time for ASEAN to decide on which side of history it wants to be on.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

So many people in Myanmar, like U Win Htein, have spent a big part of their adult lives in prison because they demanded civilian rule and liberty. Their courage and commitment is remarkable.

pyaezone

@pyaezone

2 years

The junta only released few non-threatening political prisoners.Most released are just criminals, thugs, rapists and murderers to create more chaos. People like U Win Htein, who's probably the most outspoken & oldest (80) is still locked up in cell despite his ill health.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

If they have not already done so, UN member nations should push for an open discussion in NY on the decision by UN agencies to work with and through the Myanmar junta. If the UN has a good argument to justify this approach, it needs to make it openly and respond to questions.

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@MarcielScot

9 months

I’m no military expert, but the countries continuing to base their policies on the belief the junta can hold power and effectively govern should be asking themselves if this looks good for a military that tried to seize power nearly 3 years ago.

Angshuman Choudhury

@angshuman_ch

9 months

Quick glimpse of major towns and cities fully or partially reclaimed by #Myanmar 's revolutionary forces (EAOs, PDFs & joint battalions) from the coup regime since #Operation1027 began on 27 Oct. Map doesn't show junta bases that have been taken over. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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@MarcielScot

2 years

I welcome the Myanmar junta’s release of some who were unjustly imprisoned, but the world needs to understand that nothing fundamentally has changed. This is a tactical move by the junta, which continues to detain thousands and slaughter innocent people daily.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

I’m not an expert on this, but I know that the KWO is a deeply respected and serious organization. UN agencies continue to alienate a lot of people in Myanmar. I hope UN leadership is doing a careful review of all operations and policies there.

Karen Women Organization

@karenwomenorg

2 years

📃 Open letter to @UNOCHA regarding its failure to recognize community-run GBV programming in Kawthoolei. KWO is writing to convey our strongest objections to the grossly misleading content of the Protection section of OCHA’s Myanmar Humanitarian Update no. 22.

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@MarcielScot

9 months

Stunning (in a bad way) that the UN estaimtes 2.5 million Myanmar people are now displaced. Such terrible suffering, and yet the world continues largely to ignore what’s happening there.

Francis Wade

@Francis_Wade

9 months

UN reporting that half a million people inside Myanmar have now been displaced since conflict intensified in late Oct, bringing total number of displaced to 2.5 million.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

@EvanLaksmana Evan, the junta needs to feel some pressure or it will ignore ASEAN’s points. One step would be for ASEAN to engage publicly with the NUG. It’s the right thing to do, and it might make the military nervous.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

Good to see this. US has met many times with the NUG, now (again) with ethnic groups. Going forward, ideally meetings will include both, whenever possible, as a way of recognizing the importance of all resistance elements working together.

Office of the Counselor, Department of State

@CounselorDOS

1 year

Met with several prominent ethnic group representatives to discuss the crisis in Burma. We stand in solidarity with the growing coalition of religious, ethnic, and civil society leaders seeking an end to the crisis and an inclusive, democratic future for Burma.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Really sad news. Sayadaw Ashin Arriyawuntha Biwunsa consistently spoke out for respect, tolerance and freedom. I will remember him for his courage and sense of humor. I always left my visits with him feeling better about the world.

Obituary: Exiled Myanmar Buddhist Leader Dies Demanding Tolerance and Democracy

As the regime’s critic, monk U Arriyawuntha Biwunsa opposed junta attempts to exploit Buddhism and condemned monks who ally with Min Aung Hlaing.

www.irrawaddy.com

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@MarcielScot

2 years

The junta arrests 16,000 and then releases 200, hoping foreign governments will see the releases as a sign of reasonableness. They are not.

The Irrawaddy (Eng)

@IrrawaddyNews

2 years

Myanmar Junta Amnesty Sees 200-Plus Political Prisoners Freed

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@MarcielScot

8 months

This NUG statement makes sense as a means to encourage Beijing to recognize that there is a good alternative to supporting the junta. In my view, the statement should not cause concern in Washington.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

This piece by @ZachAbuza is definitely worth reading. It still amazes me that the world is largely standing by as an entire population is fighting for freedom and democracy against a brutal military that has kept the country down for decades.

The Diplomat

@Diplomat_APAC

1 year

Between 2015 and 2020, Myanmar seemed on the cusp of a meaningful transformation. Then a military coup set the country back decades.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

I’m guessing a lot of people are going to be unhappy about this very sober assessment by Bertil Lintner, but it’s an important read.

Guest Column | The Mirage of the ‘United Front’ in Myanmar

The country’s modern history is littered with an alphabet soup of pan-ethnic resistance alliances that failed to deliver on promises of unity and federalism.

www.irrawaddy.com

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@MarcielScot

2 years

I wonder if some sympathetic government(s) might pull together a small group of experts to develop options — mindful of concerns re supplying MANPADs — to help the resistance counter/mitigate the junta’s air power.

LaetitiavandenAssum

@lvandenassum

2 years

Myanmar PDFs need MANPADs to have a fighting chance, says Anthony Davis in part 2 of his piece on the state of violent conflict in Myanmar.

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

2 years

Agree with @lvandenassum . The Myanmar junta is waging a brutal war against the Myanmar people. It has single-handedly created this humanitarian crisis and proven time and again that it will use every possible tool — including aid — as a weapon.

LaetitiavandenAssum

@lvandenassum

2 years

A tragedy for Myanmar’s people. Today’s ASEAN meeting on humanitarian assistance for Myanmar’s people achieved little. Outcome plays into hands of military regime which often uses blocking communities’ access to emergency relief as coercive instrument. 1/2

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Any of the three - Minister Luhut, FM Retno, former FM Hassan — would make great envoys, in theory.The problem isn’t the envoy. It’s the idea that anyone will be able to persuade the generals to stop killing people and open a genuine dialogue. Better to spend time with the NUG

Andrew Nachemson

@ANachemson

2 years

Bloomberg reports general-turned-minister Luhut Panjaitan considered for ASEAN envoy on Myanmar Many assumed it would be FM Retno Marsudi, other reports said former FM Hassan Wirajuda More than a month into Indonesia’s highly anticipated chair & they haven’t even named an envoy

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Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

The situation in Myanmar continues to spiral down. It is an ongoing tragedy, the blame for which lies squarely with a brutal and power-obsessed military that for decades has separated itself from the rest of society.

Thant Myint-U

@thantmyintu

3 years

Burma edges towards armed resistance as the CRPH affirms right to "self defence" against illegitimate military rule.

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@MarcielScot

10 months

Another good article by @YeMyoHein5 on unwise and unhelpful int’l engagement w/the Myanmar junta. I appreciate that he notes my similar argument in my book, “Imperfect Partners.”

Guest Column | Don’t Give a Wild Beast a Taste of Blood

Having chosen to engage with a junta at war with its civilian population, international ‘peacemakers’ are complicit in repeated crimes against humanity.

www.irrawaddy.com

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@MarcielScot

7 months

The idea of deferring to ASEAN on Myanmar is based on ASEAN centrality and the assumption that ASEAN states understand Myanmar. The reality, to be blunt, is that other ASEAN governments don’t understand Myanmar any better than anyone else. Proximity does not equal understanding.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

One other factor that suggests a comparison to a foreign occupying force is the Tatmadaw’s insularity from Myanmar society, especially at senior levels.

Scot Marciel

@MarcielScot

3 years

Some are talking about the situation in Myanmar as civil war, a failed state, or a mass uprising. There are elements of all of those. Another comparison is to a foreign occupying army — zero legitimacy/support, beyond brutal, and willing to destroy everything for power.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Thoughts on Asean and Myanmar, written from my Stanford perch. How ASEAN Can Still Help On Myanmar @Diplomat_APAC

How ASEAN Can Still Help On Myanmar

The Southeast Asian bloc must make it clear that it will not accept the military junta’s sham election.

thediplomat.com

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Exactly. The only hope I see is to put maximum pressure on the junta so it is forced to seek a way out. No way anyone’s going to persuade these guys to be reasonable. The worst regime in Southeast Asia since the Khmer Rouge.

Ye Myo Hein

@YeMyoHein5

2 years

Some in the international community seem to believe that they can convince Myanmar's brutal military to end its rule. The execution case clearly shows the Myanmar Sit-Tat won't listen to others, but only run by their own logic. They are turning the country into "Murder Republic."

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Former FM @saifuddinabd has been a consistent and strong voice in support of the Myanmar people’s quest to achieve civilian democratic rule. Here he again calls on ASEAN to engage the NUG and NUCC. I hope others in ASEAN heed his sound advice.

Saifuddin Abdullah 🇲🇾

@saifuddinabd

2 years

Today marks the 75th Anniversary of Myanmar's Declaration of Independence from British rule on January 1948.

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@MarcielScot

3 years

Excellent piece by @poppymcp and @panuw highlighting that the Tatmadaw’s actions are not only devastating for Myanmar but also damaging to the region.

Poppy McPherson

@poppymcp

3 years

Thai Colonel Prasan Henprasert outlining plans to shelter refugees from #Myanmar , as violence against protesters escalate and hundreds flee to border areas. He spoke to @panuw and I earlier today at the 3rd Army border base. #WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar

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@MarcielScot

2 years

@MurrayHiebert1 She’s in an impossible situation, but I don’t see any value in going to NPT to meet the generals. I mean how many senior UN and foreign officials need to be rudely rebuffed by the junta before the world stops trying to ”persuade” the generals to be reasonable?

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@MarcielScot

1 year

I expect this from Beijing, which cares not at all what the Myanmar people want and assumes any future government will have to work with China. It seems short-sighted on the part of India, which might pay a higher price for its support for the junta.

Hunter Marston

@hmarston4

1 year

It seems everybody is in Naypyitaw this week to advance their respective interests. 🇨🇳 has normalized regular meetings w/ #Myanmar 's junta & ethnic armed groups, while Indian Amb. Vinay Kumar met junta rep. Than Swe to discuss 🇮🇳's Kaladan transit project:

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@MarcielScot

11 months

Excellent piece in @Myanmar_Now_Eng . I recently wrote about exactly this — the need to start thinking now about what comes after the junta. Many in Myanmar already are doing so. Sympathetic governments need to do the same.

International Support for a Nation in Crisis: Scot Marciel

As Myanmar continues to grapple with the aftermath of the 2021 military coup, APARC’s Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow Scot Marciel explores the fundamental challenges that Myanmar must address and the role...

aparc.fsi.stanford.edu

Myanmar Now

@Myanmar_Now_Eng

11 months

Commentary | Myanmar’s military dictatorship won’t be around forever It’s time to start thinking beyond the country’s nightmarish era of military rule and begin planning for a better future Read more -

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@MarcielScot

1 year

This all makes a lot of sense in theory, but what has the Myanmar military done since the coup — or indeed for decades — to give anyone reason to hope that it will agree to end violence or make political concessions? I don’t get this thinking.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

As a former diplomat, I‘ve always puzzled over the tendency in the diplomatic world to refuse to name an offending country or organization while making it 100% clear to whom you are referring. It serves no purpose other than to make one look feckless.

May Wong

@MayWongCNA

2 years

Not naming #Myanmar #military , #Cambodia @ASEAN chair calls "in particular 1 with significant power on the ground" to end violence. It "observe(s) with alarm the latest intensified fighting" that's worsened humanitarian crisis & goes against 5-point plan #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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@MarcielScot

11 months

I don’t know if resistance forces truly control 60% of the country, but I am confident that this resistance effort offers the best hope for Myanmar finally to push the hated/brutal/incompetent military out of political power and create conditions for real progress.

Kim Jolliffe

@Kim_Jolliffe

11 months

[NUG President] "said resistance forces are in control of about 60% of the country’s territory and poised to threaten the ruling junta in key strongholds... We are now in a position to even threaten Naypyidaw.” #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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@MarcielScot

1 year

“An army trying to impose its rule on a country that does not want it.” That line sums of the Myanmar situation as well as any.

Poppy McPherson

@poppymcp

1 year

Women, children, and elderly people reportedly among the dead in the latest atrocity inflicted by #Myanmar ’s junta, an army trying to impose its rule on a country that does not want it.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

@Kim_Jolliffe @TheEconomist Thanks @Kim_Jolliffe for this excellent thread. If anything, I think too many people outside Myanmar have assumed the junta will inevitably prevail. Along with a lack of understanding of Myanmar, this assumption has led to some poor policy choices by some governments.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

The junta’s reported reduction of Aung San Suu Kyi‘s sentence is not an “opening” but a transparent tactical ploy. If it wants to signal an “opening,” how about ending its daily horrific violence against civilians and releasing the thousands it has unjustly detained.

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@MarcielScot

11 months

I’ll rush to read this book. Sean not only suffered from a difficult and totallly unjustified imprisonment, but he also knows more about the Myanmar economy (and the generals’ role in it) than almost anyone.

Sean Turnell

@TurnellSean

11 months

The book Snr General Min Aung Hlaing will not want you to read. For everyone else - it’s soon available in all the usual places:

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@MarcielScot

3 years

Important clarification that Malaysia has not recognized the junta. As ASEAN prepares for an emergency summit, it is critical that it does nothing to confer legitimacy on or acceptance of the coup regime. ”First do no harm” applies to diplomacy too.

Rozanna Latiff

@rozlatiff

3 years

Malaysia says its ambassador to Myanmar met with the country’s energy ministry to convey Petronas’ decision to suspend operations of its Myanmar unit. The foreign ministry denies that the visit was a recognition of Myanmar’s military govt, repeats calls for end to violence.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

This is an incredible photo. Wow!

Edith Mirante

@EdithMirante

1 year

This photo from social media (Mandalay Strike Force & Mandalay District PDF, April 14/23) can serve as a reminder to any journalists, INGOs etc. who are still unclear about what to call #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar in 2023: this is a Revolution.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

Charles Petrie and I discussed diplomatic options on Myanmar with @R_Ebbighausen on his podcast. My main point: There’s no point in engaging diplomatically with the junta until/unless it is so weakened that it is desperately seeking an exit from the crisis it created.

Rodion Ebbighausen

@R_Ebbighausen

1 year

The 42nd #ASEANSummit is taking place in Bali. So far, the bloc hasn't found a way to address the crisis in #Myanmar . In the latest episode of Myanmar in a Podshell, we ask two senior diplomats: What to do?

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@MarcielScot

7 months

This is the first time I’ve seen it reported publicly that senior U.S. and Chinese officials discussed Myanmar. They probably have discussed before, but perhaps didn’t announce it.

May Wong

@MayWongCNA

7 months

#US @JakeSullivan46 & #China 's Wang Yi both hailed 2-day talks in #Thailand #Bangkok as "candid, substantive & constructive". Aside from discussing critical issues like bilateral ties, #Taiwan , the US also flagged #Myanmar in talks

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@MarcielScot

2 years

The SAC is Southeast Asia’s worst regime since the Khmer Rouge, yet the UNSYG has completely failed to offer any moral leadership. He might not have known about this latest fiasco but there’s no excuse for the UN’s continuing equivocation on Myanmar.

Aaron Connelly

@ConnellyAL

2 years

Strange call by officials from the United Nations Secretariat. UNGA accredits the NUG's ambassador as Myanmar's permanent representative to the General Assembly, and regularly meets SAC officials. I can imagine no principled or informed objection here.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Good to see a former Indian ambassador to Myanmar call on New Delhi to rethink it’s approach to the country. Betting on the military junta is short-term thinking; betting on the Myanmar people is strategic (and moral).

India For Myanmar

@India4Myanmar

2 years

What Can #India Do To Move #Myanmar Away From Further Violence? When a neighbor’s house is burning, inaction is not an option or solution. China is likely to capitalize on the anarchy, so India can hardly sit back and watch. Written by @gmukhopadhaya

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@MarcielScot

5 days

I don’t know if the resistance can seize and hold Mandalay, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed is remarkable and highlights both the strength of the resistance and the weakness of the junta.

The Diplomat

@Diplomat_APAC

5 days

Myanmar’s anti-regime forces are being re-deployed to the south, north, and east of Mandalay amid rising expectations of a coming battle with the military aimed at wresting control of the old capital from the ruling junta by the end of the year.

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@MarcielScot

1 year

Typical UNSC process. Many if not most outraged by junta’s latest massacre, China/Russia offering bs argument for avoiding action, and low likelihood of any meaningful result. Doesn’t help that Volker refers to the resistance as the “opposition.”

LaetitiavandenAssum

@lvandenassum

1 year

Backgrounder for Friday’s UN Security Council meeting in New York that will discuss Myanmar’s crisis. The discussion has been requested by the UK following the horrific air strikes that reportedly killed 168 civilians.

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@MarcielScot

2 years

In any analysis of the NUG, one of the things it should get credit for is “normalizing” the idea that the Rohingya community needs to be part of Myanmar’s future and deserves rights and protection. Much work to do to turn that into a reality, but this language is important..

Ministry of Labour - NUG 🇲🇲

@MoLNUGMyanmar

2 years

"NUG & partners have prepared a roadmap for Myanmar’s future. It is based on #RuleOfLaw , #Democracy , peace,a commitment to an inclusive #Myanmar that supports and protects all its peoples including Rohingya. We ask you to support this roadmap in the interest of our entire region"

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@MarcielScot

9 months

Excellent article by @YeMyoHein5 on the resistance effort now underway. Argues that the 10/27 offensive was well coordinated via months of discussion.

Guest Column | Charting the Shifting Power Balance on Myanmar’s Battlefields

For the first time ever, the Myanmar military is under attack in 12 of the country’s 14 states and regions. Has it finally met its match? Part 1 of a two-part series.

www.irrawaddy.com

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@MarcielScot

2 years

Just imagine commemorating 75 years of battling for autonomy. I don’t know if Myanmar will be able to find a way forward that ends so many years of conflict and allows all communities to feel respected, but I’m confident it won’t happen as long as the military is running things.

May Wong

@MayWongCNA

2 years

On its 75th anniversary, a key #Myanmar #ethnic army #KNDO #Karen Nation Defence Organisation urges all to help each other & unite in fight against #military regime. KNDO has been training some civilian forces to fight alongside in Karen state since coup #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

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@MarcielScot

2 years

@MayWongCNA Just in case the UN Special Envoy needed another reason to stop the hopeless effort to talk reason to Min Aung Hlaing, the junta has now made public its version of the conversation the two had. An egregious breach of protocol that show the junta’s total lack of seriousness.

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@MarcielScot

7 months

Good that Sullivan talked Myanmar with Wang Yi. I don’t know why the US keeps referring to the ASEAN five-point consensus; it’s long-dead. Key is whether the US can help convince Beijing that the resistance offers a greater chance of restoring stability than the junta.

Timothy McLaughlin

@TMclaughlin3

7 months

On Myanmar: “…the efforts to address the worsening crisis there; discussed the importance of providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Burma; welcomed efforts to advance meaningful implementation of the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus.”

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