The Philippines has decided to pass over a very competent woman, with a lifetime of public service and integrity, who had plans & policies, in favor of an inexperienced man, with no clear policies, who ran on nothing but lies, disinformation and a sense of aggrieved entitlement.
Putin just launched attacks against Ukraine. It matters for Southeast Asia. A lot. But few, beyond
#Singapore
, are willing to confront this act of naked aggression that seeks to upend the international order.
On 1 April
#Thai
authorities arrested 3 members of a
#Myanmar
opposition PDF who had crossed the border to seek medical treatment. This photo shows them being delivered to the pro-SAC BGF, and their imminent execution. A shocking violation of non-refoulement. Sickening.
I’ve spent 30 years studying how sub-state actors fund their revolutionary struggles. I’ve never seen the tech-savviness, creativity & seriousness of purpose than
#Myanmar
’s NUG. My long read & the cover story in the August edition of the
@Diplomat_APAC
.
The death toll from
#Myanmar
military's bombing of a civilian gathering is now up to 171, including 40 under 18. ASEAN "strongly condemns", US offers hopes and prayers; no one does anything. We must stop the import of jetful. I explore how we could start.
How about releasing the $1.1 billion in frozen
#Myanmar
assets to them, or at least letting them borrow against it, so that they can afford to fight for a democratic federal republic since the US and no one else is going to support them?
Met Moe Zaw Oo at the
@NUGMyanmar
DC office to discuss how we can increase assistance to the people of Burma and seek a peaceful transition to an inclusive, democratic Burma.
I’m not surprised
#Vietnam
abstained, but this vote was one where Hanoi could have really walked back their position on the war. This was an easy out for them but they doubled down.
#Laos
was expected, but
#Thailand
? Seriously, Thailand? With an ally like that…
Inside the 'spring revolution' opposing
#Myanmar
's military coup. Great update on the state of the civil disobedience movement and the body established by deposed democratically-elected lawmakers.
Sanctioning firms who import/export jet fuel won't work. With MyCO's restrictions, sanctioned companies can easily re-register. So, impose sanctions on the P&I insurers. P&I is required for all major cargo ships, esp. oil tankers. My take.
#NoJetFuelNoJets
An interesting interview with the NUG’s minister of health & education. Their provision of social services is admirable given their limited resources. A 6 month course for battlefield medics certainly deserves international support.
#Myanmar
’s junta has $6.8 billion in CBM reserves in 14 overseas banks. 67% are in 9
#Singapore
banks. 12% in Switzerland. 1% in
#Thai
,
#Malaysian
& HK banks. US govt froze $1.3b. Can the NUG get these governments to put the money beyond reach of the SAC?
'Fat Leonard,' set to finally be sentenced in the long-running Navy bribery scheme on 22 September, cut off his ankle monitor today and is on the lam. He had been a cooperating witness.
@TomWrightAsia
Day 4 of Operation 1027 in Shan State. Over 60 military outposts have fallen as the TNLA, AA, & MNDAA move to consolidate control over roads to Muse and Chin Shwe Haw. Air attacks have intensified, but a ground counteroffensive would be hard to execute.
The strategist in me sees the Tatmadaw using incredibly explensive platforms, with limited spare parts & very costly munitions, on soft targets. A complete waste of limited resources. The human in me is sickened by the death of 9 more civilians. A school.
Starlink is now up and running in parts of
#Myanmar
where the junta had effectively blocked telecommunications in parts of the country. This not only gives NUG/EROs more secure communications, but helps with financial transactions/fundraising. This is big.
Vietnam got ahead of the COVID-19 curve by being transparent and aggressive with testing. It is now preparing to export a locally developed $17 test. They can make 10k individual tests per day.
#Vietnamese
soft power continues to soar.
Abe’s resignation will be felt across Southeast Asia. Under his leadership, Japan stepped up defense cooperation, allowed for transfer of coast guard ships to qualify as ODA, and increased JSDF training with regional forces.
After killing and dismembering 5 members of the local PDF,
#Myanmar
's 99 LID went on to torture, kill, dismember & disembowel 17 villagers. This is the military regime that much of
@ASEAN
& countries like Japan & Korea think it can reason with. Barbarity.
The
#Myanmar
junta's strategy is based on terrorizing the population into submission. This is a good piece on how they are doing just that in a war the world has blithely ignored.
#Myanmar
’s armed opposition and tech savvy youth have quickly adopted drone technology against the powerful military. Not a game changer, but definitely something the Tatmadaw has to factor in.
Duterte didn’t endorse any candidate, tho the policies of BBM better suit his interests. But Rody shaped the elections by attacking the press, weaponizing social media, sowing disinformation, weakening the judiciary, and by normalizing violence. He weakened
#Philippine
democracy.
Fighting around Shwe Kokko continues. Bodies of BGF forces are being stacked like cordwood. Fascinating to think of a Chinese SEZ falling & what that would mean for combating transnational crime. Reason enough for the intl community to support
@NUGMyanmar
.
"We, the United States, have worked very hard to engage with that pro-democratic opposition," said Chollet, who explained that Washington is "trying to lead by example." And yet the US Govt has done nothing meaningful to help the
@NUGMyanmar
prevail. Lame.
The NUG has raised over $100 million to support the Spring Revolution. 45% is through the sale of crypto bonds. Funds also came from pre-emptive eminent domain auctions of
#Myanmar
military-owned land. But importantly, $1.43m is from local tax collection.
By my count, this was the
#Myanmar
junta's 28th attack on a health clinic or hospital in 2023 alone. The systematic targeting of health facilities is a war crime, full stop.
The professionalism & tactical proficiency of many of the EROs fighting the junta cannot be overstated. It’s the regime’s forces that are so poorly led & equipped. SAC troops have no profession of arms, Which explains why, given all their resource advantages, they are losing.
Soldiers are increasingly deserting
#Myanmar
’s military. The two NGOs established to coax desertions are exactly what the US Government should be funding.
This is not an isolated incident. They are the embodiment of the
#Myanmar
military. War crimes are their strategy. In what world do diplomats from ASEAN, India, China or elsewhere believe they deserve a seat at the table in discussing the country's future?
Singapore’s UOB is closing the accounts of
#Myanmar
crony-owned MAI. Though they will turn to
#Thai
Abu Dhabi banks, this raises costs & complicates business. A positive step and a signal that
#Singapore
is increasingly a less conducive place for the SAC.
A
#Thai
Senator and a
#Burmese
drug seller walk into a bar. But it’s a bar that they co-own. And it has an illegal casino to launder the proceeds of drug trafficking. My take on the all too cozy relationship between the Thai and Burmese elites.
The
#Myanmar
military has suffered a spate of losses in northern Shan State in the past 3 days, losing the road access to 2 crossings to China. The groups responsible were not formally allied with the NUG, but could be flipping. The junta is a very bad bet.
There’s a ton of excitement about Move Forward’s historic win, but for the royalist-military elites, democracy is a gateway to republicanism, thus an existential threat. They have multiple tools & powers that the can employ in the next 60 days to thwart a democratic government.
So pleased that China’s Defense Minister could take the time out of his busy schedule to bully regional states instead of commemorating the 34th anniversary of the massacre of unarmed students in Tiaanmen Sq.
On this International Women’s Day, a huge shoutout to the women of
#Myanmar
, who have led the CDM movement for over 3 years, joined the armed struggle defying gender norms, and provided frontline medical care. The Spring Revolution is a revolution, indeed.
The
@freedomhouse
Report on Freedom on the Internet is out, with grim news from SEAsia. The
#Philippines
has the highest score 65/111. No state is "free." 3 states 🇻🇳🇹🇭🇲🇲are not free. 🇲🇾🇮🇩🇵🇭🇸🇬🇰🇭 are partly free.
#Myanmar
fell 5 pts, 2nd most in the world.
41 members of LIB 143 surrender to 3 Brotherhood Alliance, which continues to consolidate power in northern Shan State. 15 pro-junta militiamen also surrendered in Kokkang. 3BA claims 100 surrenderees since offensive began on 27 Oct. Tick tock tick tock
#Myanmar
's NUG reports that the EROs and PDFs have killed over 18,000 soldiers in the past year. Roughly 2-3k soldiers have defected. Desertions are a big question mark. Frontline units are thinly manned and are on constant deployments. Hollowed out.
‘They plan to rule with fear, but the people are no longer afraid'. Important interview with NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La. A fair assessment of the NUG's successes and failings. Pay close attention to his comments on the NUG's relations with the EROs.
“Japan’s Self-Defense Forces must stop all training of Myanmar military personnel until they return to barracks. Failure to do so is tantamount to abetting war crimes.” There, I said it.
If you are a corporation invested in
#Myanmar
and you are basing your assumptions for future business and investments on the military junta consolidating power, you really should test those assumptions and consider hedging. Call me.
Myanmar’s shadow government creates PDF 5101, responsible for operations in Yangon. An important development, but it comes after the SAC systematically picked apart the urban guerrilla forces in Yangon & Mandalay, both inundated with Huawei CCTVs.
The
#Myanmar
air force carried out another attack on a school in Sagaing; the 21st school they've destroyed since November 2022. I document how the SAC is intentionally targeting educational, health, & NUG civil administration.
“In the past we had back channels with China. The signal has always been ‘You will not be able to win,’” he said. “Now they are seeing the country in a different way.” Good interview with NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La on the situation since Op 1027.
Pita wastes no time & declares 6-party coalition with 309 MPs. He’s actively defying the Senate to not endorse the coalition that absolutely routed the pro-military parties. Bold strategy as royalist-military elites view MF as a greater threat than PT.
This is superbly done, and in stark juxtaposition to the military, with their collapsing morale and discipline. It conveys, a just cause, commitment, discipline and focus that you could never see from the sit tat.
Music video tribute to members of Cobra Column, one of the most fearsome PDF unit throughout the entire revolution.
The whole cast in this video is all Cobra active members.
🫡
#CobraColumn
#MyanmarRevolution
This
@rebeccahenschke
program on the youth who have given up everything to join
#Myanmar
’s People’s Defense Forces is absolutely riveting. Do listen. The courage and passion to fight the junta is incredible.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Thai senator’s ties to arrested Myanmar tycoon stir controversy ahead of election. My take on the very cozy relationship between the
#Thai
and
#Myanmar
elites.
From the Bones of Victims, a Doctor Unearths a Drug War’s True Toll. Debunking Duterte's despotic lies, one post-more at a time. Lovely profile of
@Doc4Dead
, an activist for truth and closure, by
@suilee
.
89 doctors & nurses have been killed, 853 arrested by junta forces since 1 Feb 21. In 2022 557 were fired & had licenses revoked for CDM activity. 3rd hospital was shut down in Mandalay last week. An all-out military assault on
#Myanmar
's healthcare system.
Inside a secret school where
#Indonesian
children of terrorism - including girl who survived her father's Surabaya attack - are de-radicalized. Impossible to imagine anything this creative or important in US CVE.
While the
#Thai
Junta Lite (TM) sees itself as a political role model for
#Myanmar
’s SAC, it’s the intertwined political-military elites that bind the 2 two regimes. With 24 yrs of business together, Sen Upakit & Tun Min Latt are the epitome. My take.
#Myanmar
’s neighbors may support the junta for their narrow reasons, but they’re overstating the SAC’s effective control. Hard to make policy on such flawed analysis. Great piece by
@Kim_Jolliffe
.
They’re making their list, they’re checking it twice. The
#Singapore
& Chinese firms are going to find out soon that doing business with the junta isn’t so nice.
New
@NUGMyanmar
announcement gives final warning to biz pursuing new investment through terrorist
#Myanmar
junta's Myanmar Investment Commission. NUG warns of enforcement actions against biz that refuse to suspend operations. Of 8 biz in breach, 6 are registered in
#Singapore
.
More harrowing reporting about the proliferation of Chinese SEZs along the
#Thai
-
#Myanmar
border. This lawlessness is a cancer. China, putting the Crime in DIME.
Japan is usually agnostic on the issue of democracy, but it does care about rule of law, stability, & economic stewardship. On every one of those counts, it’s made the wrong bet on
#Myanmar
’s junta and must reverse course & support the NUG. My take.
The upgrade in bilateral relations is simply the recognition of the overall close relationship - in particular economic - between the US and
#Vietnam
. It doesn't represent a change in Hanoi's policies or orientation. My take on President Biden's visit.
The most successful aspect of the
#Myanmar
military's campaign to date has been their systematic dismantling of urban guerilla groups in Yangon & Mandalay. Absolutely devastating for the NUG as it creates a sense of normalcy for the urban middle class.
Min Aung Hlaing will emulate what Prayuth did: redraft the constitution, weaken political parties, disqualify charismatic leaders, mal-apportion the vote, use appointed bodies, use cyber laws to target opponents, delay elections, all to run a minority govt.
No Pakatan isn't ‘falling apart’, as Bilahari Kausikan opines. Malaysia is now a functioning democracy with give & take - something that Singapore is unaccustomed to dealing with & analyzing.
#Myanmar
's KNU just reshuffled its leadership and has rejected ceasefire talks with the SAC, recommitting itself to fighting alongside the NUG and other allied EROs, despite a concerted govt offensive and aerial bombardments.
"The military is getting ready to dissolve by itself...They are ready to collapse." Thoughtful interview with NUG's MFA Zin Mar Aung, esp. her concluding thoughts on the imperative of the international community to start backing the democratic opposition.
A brutal (though thorougly deserved) takedown of the ineffectual UN Rpecial Rep for
#Myanmar
, Noeleen Heyzer, and why there should be no replacement in the near term, as long as the UN simply follows the ASEAN lead, by
@markscogan
.
Overdue, but a very welcome development. Key Singapore bank UOB moves to cut off
#Myanmar
. Hopefully, OCBC & DBS to follow suit. Already saw a domestic alignment between KBZ & KBZMS in response. Myanmar's financial sector is getting very isolated.
Cash-strapped
#Myanmar
may not be paying death benefits to its soldiers. All military have compulsory life insurance. Since Min Aung Hlaing became the army chief, in 2015, it's been through the Insurance Company owned by his son, Aung Pyae Sone.
With today's vote in the UNGA, here's the
#SoutheastAsia
scorecard.
#Vietnam
&
#Laos
continue to refuse any condemnation of Moscow. Please note,
#Myanmar
's seat is held by the
@NUGMyanmar
, not the junta which has openly supported Russia.
#Philippines
has been a friend of Ukraine.
The death toll from last week's bombing/helicopter gunship attack on an NUG office opening in Sagaing is now 186. Harrowing scenes of bodies everywhere by CNN. The lack of a meaningful international response against the
#Myanmar
junta is appalling.
Min Aung Hlaing just sacked the commander in Karen State following heavy casualties. He’s the second commanding general to be relieved of command. He’ll be replaced by an LID psychopath so expect more civilian casualties. Rotating the generals is a tell.
Do I have this right? The
#Myanmar
military has now violated the airspace of
#Thailand
,
#Bangladesh
, and now,
#India
during attacks on EROs in the past year, and the three countries have not only said nothing, but still support the junta. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
The military headquarters of Chin National Front Camp Victoria on the border with India is under heavy attack by fighter jets, sources have confirmed. No details are available yet but the attacks represent the highest escalation yet of the armed conflict in Chin State to date
Five PDF members killed in accidental mine explosion. Your reminder that
#Myanmar
’s PDF members are patriotic and courageous young people, but untrained. These losses are both tragic and predictable.
The SAC has driven
#Myanmar
's economy into the ground, devastating the banking system; They're looking at a barter economy. How
@NUGMyanmar
is funding the Spring Revolution says a lot about its vision for the country's economic future & their stewardship.
Bowman, Turnell & Kubota to be released by
#Myanmar
authorities this hour. Junta fears a harder line from
#Indonesia
&
#Malaysian
FM Saifuddin's call to reject the 8/23 elections from gaining strength amongst other ASEAN members. This is a preemptive move to encourage engagement.
The NUG’s Spring Development Bank is concluding its beta period and will soon be open to the general public, doing an end run around the military-controlled financial sector, while funding the Spring Revolution. My take on the fintech savvy movement.
#Myanmar
's military announced a 51% increase in its defense budget from FY2022 to $2.66 billion; not including its off-budget and often illegal revenue streams. According to these numbers, military spending accounts for 30% of government spending.
In
#Thailand
, a 21-Year-old student dares to tackle the third rail of politics/society, and a warrant for her arrest has already been issued. Amazing courage from this woman.
The US Treasury Dept sanctioned Shoon Energy PTE and its two owners/directors. The Singaporean holding Company was formerly part of the Asia Sun Group, in a jt venture with Puma Energy. It's the key provider of jet fuel in
#Myanmar
.
#Philippine
spokesman basically congratulates Duterte on creating the illiberal democracy and disastrous human rights & media freedom conditions that allowed
@mariaressa
to win the
@NobelPrize
, before threatening the laureate, herself.
A very good interview with
@ZinMarAungNUG
on the state of the Spring Revolution since Operation 1027 was launched. Her criticism of the international community is particularly trenchant and fair. Do read.
My piece in the Diplomat Magazine’s 100th edition traces the hope to despair in
#Myanmar
. Please take my conclusion to heart. The
@NUGMyanmar
must be supported, the stakes are this high.
A
#Myanmar
military helicopter attacked an elementary school. 9 children are dead, nearly 20 more wounded. 2 teachers and other students have been detained. This is a barbaric regime that deserves no recognition.
While the
#Myanmar
junta's shambolic "elections" are unlikely to be held in 2023 (hell, even 2024), getting states to pre-emptively reject them must be the highest diplomatic priority for the NUG.
Increasingly desperate to find an off ramp, the junta has sent 3 Lt gens MOI So Htut, Yar Pyae & Khin Zaw Oo (ret) to meet with jailed Suu Kyi twice since 24 May to discuss peace. She’s apparently rebuffed their offer, demanding Nov 2020 poll be respected.
Singapore says use of lethal force in Myanmar against unarmed protesters ‘inexcusable’.
#Singapore
accounts for 1/3 of FDI in
#Myanmar
. It's where the Junta banks their ill-gotten gains & gets their health care. The Lion City has some leverage here.
3 Brotherhood Alliance (MNDAA, TNLA, & AA) have launched coordinated attacks seizing the road that leads to border crossing towns of Muse & Chinshwehaw. MNDAA has entered Chinshwehaw & now emptying out the scam centers, a vital source of revenue for SAC.
The NUG’s strategy is to hollow out the military to the point that it can’t deploy & sustain its troops across multiple battlefronts. As such, stemming defections from its own ranks has been the
#Myanmar
military’s most important battlefield achievement.
In
#Myanmar
, Grief and Fury After an Attack on a School. 11 children were killed by 30mm cannons from four military helicopters. 11 children. 11. The lack of outrage only ensures the next war crime.