Librarian Capital @LibrarianCap Twitter profile

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Librarian Capital

4 months

We publish research on interesting stocks on Substack Growing archive of reports on dozens of companies "Institutional-grade research at retail prices" Includes 15-stock model portfolio updated monthly Follow the link below, or see address on screenshot

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 months

@quantian1 "Bill Ackman reposted"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 months

@quantian1 Describing public service ("government agency") as a "deadend job" is not cool

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Buffett's CNBC Interview: 4 Under-reported Insights 1/ $BRK investments into Japanese trading houses was funded with JPY debt (so low cost & no FX risk) "We’ve sold periodically yen-denominated bonds, so more or less ... we’ve insulated ourselves from exchange rate changes"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Tweedy Browne on $BABA: new position around YE, added in Q2. 50% share in Chinese e-commerce, 40% in cloud. Trades at <12x core "marketplace" EBITA ex. other assets. Flat FY22E EBITA not a concern. Regulatory actions will not impair value. Limiting Chinese exposure to 10% at cost

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Bill Ackman on Pershing Square 22Q1 call (Mon): 1/ No Energy stocks: $PSH looks for "super durable growth companies". "Historically we have owned no energy stocks ... we don't like businesses which have exposure to commodity prices that we can't control".

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Pershing Square $PSH slides on $NFLX: 222m subs ¼ of addessable HHs; "focus on scaling original & local language content uniquely positions" global success. EBIT margin up >10ppt since 2018, targets +3ppt every few years. Now 11% of US TV+video revenues, similar share gains ex-US

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Fundsmith 22H1 letter: portfolio FCF Yield expanded from 2.7% to 3.6% in H1, back to 2017YE level Tech stocks in S&P 500 now lower-rated than Consumer Staples. Fundsmith's Tech stocks had average P/E of 24x $META FCF Yield at 8.7%. "It is either cheap or a so-called value trap"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Fundsmith 2022 AGM (thread) 1/ Underperformed slightly in 2022, but never expected to outperform every period and in every type market; only expected to outperform "over the longer term" 2/ Prefers to look at 2-year return as companies tend to do much better or worse post-COVID

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

4 months

Estée Lauder $EL shares down ~15% this morning Looking for theories why - replies are open below

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 months

Lindsell Train on Spirits: "It feels erroneous that Diageo’s $DGE valuation is now at or around the levels of the ‘average’ European Staples or Beverages company ... Remy Cointreau $RCO ... is nearly trading at the level of the replacement cost of its stores of ageing liquid"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

John Hempton: $META "the most notable cheap stock" at 12x EPS & <8x EBITDA. Earnings "suppressed" by metaverse R&D. "To not make money in this stock, the future has to be far worse than the past or present. That is certainly possible". "We think we will make money" but "not sure"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Highlights from Nick Sleep's Nomad Partnership Letters (Thread) From Sep-01 to 2013 YE, Nomad gained 20.8% p.a. (pre-fees) vs. MSCI World's 6.5% p.a. A dollar invested with Nomad was turned into $10.21, vs. $2.17 by MSCI World, during this period

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Reminder: most of $BAC's AfS securities are hedged to floating rate "The piece that will matter the most will be the AfS securities ... we have about $200bn of treasuries there & they're all swapped to floating precisely to insulate us" - Brian Moynihan, CEO (22Q1 earnings call)

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

John Hempton: "We think that negative real returns for investors over the next five years are likely" (22Q1 letter). "Asset prices are very high", "even the old safe assets are expensive". "Consumer staple companies ... at this price are not safe". (NB. Letter mentioned $PM long)

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Tom Russo on $BABA: "We recognized risks of confiscation, closure, etc ... but reasoned that China would eventually recognize how much they needed (Alibaba's) Western-style, modern retail, and a robust innovation pipeline". "Shares have declined >25% since our 1st investment".

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

$GOOG 22Q1 revenues +23% y/y (+26% ex-FX), vs. Q4 +32%. EBIT +22% y/y as margin roughly flat; EPS -6.4% due to "other" income being positive PY & negative this year (equity investment valuation). Within revneues, Advertising +22%, Other +5%, Google Cloud +44%. GOOG -10% post-mkt.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Trian: "We fear Disney is 'over-earning' in domestic parks to subsidize streaming losses" $DIS US parks' spend per guest rose 40% in FY19-22, vs. 6% CAGR in 2011-19. "Recurring issues" on staff wages US parks went from 30% of EBIT in FY19 to 44% in FY22

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

28 days

Diageo: Nick Train expects a 33x P/E (vs. current <20x) "We have long held the view that (Diageo) could be valued on up to 33x EPS ... we would not even consider selling out of an asset as advantaged as Diageo at anything less than a 30x or more multiple" $DGE $DEO

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

4 months

Dan Loeb on Alphabet and AI: "Generative AI is likely to take content creation costs to zero ... (With) a proliferation of information ... Google Search will be increasingly important as a source of truth" Third Point made "substantial $GOOG investment" in Q1

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

British American Tobacco asked by Independent Franchise Partners on H1 call about cutting dividend for more buybacks. "Trading on just 8x EBITDA"; "buyback capacity just £2-3bn a year"; halving div. would raise it to £5bn", "could buy back ½ your shares in just 5 years". $BATS LN

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Lindsell Train on $PYPL: "Broader ecommerce trends benefiting PayPal aren't going away". Acceptance 3x nearest rival, signed up 5m more merchants after raising prices. 30% growth never part of LT thesis, "extremely good value" if top/bottom line growth sustained at mid-to-low DD.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Michael Lindsell on $PYPL 18% decline in May "PayPal accounts for c.20% of US e-commerce transactions ... one of the few payment providers that has the critical mass of active customers & merchants ... we expect (it) to grow revenues & profits this year & indeed into the future"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

11 months

Philip Morris investor day 2024-26 target CAGRs 6-8% for revenues (organic) 8-10% for Adj. EBIT 9-11% for Adj. EPS (ex-FX) 2023 outlook cut by ~3% "only" due to FX Adj. EPS now $5.96-6.05 (was $6.13-6.22) Still 8.0-9.5% growth ex-FX $PM now ~$90, 15x 2023E EPS & 5.8% dividend

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Lowes $LOW thesis from $PSH investor pres. "Positioned to grow EPS despite uncertain market" ⅔ revenues from critical repair & maintenance Revenue opp. in Pro share gain Self-help to get to 15% margin Line of sight to ~$20 EPS (shares at ~$209) 15x P/E, cheap & cheaper than $HD

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Terry Smith on Fundsmith selling Amazon $AMZN: "Our concern (was) over potential capital misallocation ... (including) ... to seek routes to get bigger in grocery retail ... Where companies choose to invest outside a powerful core franchise ... they are likely to destroy value"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Fundsmith has built a position in Alphabet. $GOOG will be an addition to existing holdings in $MSFT, $AMZN and $FB, and Technology is now 28% of their portfolio, just behind Consumer Staples (31%). Possibly related to this, the fund lost 9.5% in Jan-22, 5 ppt worse than benchmark

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Fundsmith 2023 AGM w/ Terry Smith & Julian Robins 1/ Style rotation products (moving between value & growth, etc.) have never worked in Smith's experience 2/ "Defensive" sums up key contributors in 2022; "Tech" sums up detractors, but Smith dislikes this label

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Lindsell Train (Wright) on $PYPL (-52% LTM). "Expectations for US tech biz. incredibly high", "PYPL has fallen foul of the hurdle its own rapid progress has imposed". But "network effects", penetration (22% of US online transactions) & freq of use (44/yr). No mention of valuation

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Druckenmiller: "The way to build a LT track record, is when you really see the ball, swing really big". "When you don’t see the ball, don’t swing. You can build a record when in terrible years you’re up 0-5% & then throw a couple of 50s & 60s & numbers look pretty good over time"

FT Alphaville

@FTAlphaville

1 year

The Druck hates to lose money

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

"Fund Manager Comments: Fundsmith 2022 AGM Notes". My entire thread on the meeting in a single document, tidied up & in complete sentences. Covers various topics incl. performance, strategy, ESG, $FB, $ULVR & $AMZN. Sign up for regular content - it's free!

Fund Manager Comments: Fundsmith 2022 AGM Notes

(Substack Exclusive) Reading Materials

librariancapital.substack.com

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

5 months

Philip Morris $PM 24Q1 results Total volume +3.6%, incl: Cigarette -0.4% HTU +20.9% (IMS +12.5%; Japan +13.3%, Europe +9.4%) Oral +35.8% (US Nicotine Pouches +79.7%) Total revenues +11.0% organic, +9.7% reported, incl. Combustible +3.7% organic, Smoke-Free +24.8% Adj. EBIT

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Terry Smith's "Investing for Growth": What's the point of buying the book when most of the content is already on Fundsmith's own site or the FT, and the remainder is often in other newspapers with no paywalls?

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Fundsmith on Beauty margins (in $ULVR letter): Running biz. w/ 75% Gross Margin & "only" 18% EBIT margin is "tough" culture fit w/ consumer giants like $PG. "If you try & even tinker with this margin structure, you’ll destroy the whole thing". So leaders $OR, $EL are family-owned

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Highlights from "The Caesars Palace Coup" (by Max Frumes & Sujeet Indap) (thread) Thread focus is on PE & distressed debt world (not specific to $APO); sidenotes on gaming (mostly $CZR) This was a great read - buy it here

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

British American Tobacco: Ken Dart (Spring Mountains) raised stake again, to 8.15% (from 8.03% last reported Aug-21). Stake worth £4.8bn ($6.5bn). 1st disclosure was 3.02% position in Oct-20. $BATS share price -8.5% L1Y.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

$FB leaked presentation: Facebook ≠ Instagram Instagram: "New user growth strong", retention rates & teen consumption "steady". Facebook: "Teen acq. low & regressing further", "signs of delayed saturation" for those born after 2000; US YA engagement flat to -ive vs. pre-COVID

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Meta Platforms $FB 22Q1 call (live thread) Research published since Mar-19 listed here: (CEO) 1/ "Outsized revenue growth" trend in last few years from COVID now "backing off", so mgmt. intends to slow "some" investments in line with lower revenue growth

Facebook Research — Librarian Capital

www.librariancapital.com

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

3/ Buffett sold bank stocks last year because he saw the maturity problem on their books "We sold a number of banks ... we had held some of ‘em for 25 years. But I don’t like it when people get too focused on the earnings number & forget what my view of basic banking principles"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Credit Suisse AT1 bonds: Howard Marks coming out in favour of Swiss authorities: "Were the investors misled? To me, the answer is no ... You can say you read & understood the prospectus, or you can say you thought they were like ordinary debt securities, but you can’t say both"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

5 months

Philip Morris $PM: US ZYN sales are just ~5% of group sales, despite all the press attention lavished on it Your opinion on US ZYN, whether positive (fast growth) or negative (FDA risk), should not be main factor driving your investment view on PM (Swedish Match smokefree sales

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Altria $MO to abandon 80% Dividend Payout target New target is of mid-single-digit dividend growth Also targets mid-single-digit EPS growth Change is to remove uncertainty from EPS variability Old payout ratio target dated back to 2010

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Zoetis investor day (26-May, first one since 2014) CEO session 1/ $ZTS consistently grows faster than market; "ability to not just grow markets, but to build markets" 2/ Now 50/50 US/non-US, 65/35 petcare/livestock

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Leading UK value investor on buying more Alibaba 6-part split "major positive catalyst", 12x 2024E EPS, 8x adjusted for cash. "Headline P/E ... effectively implying zero value" for major subsidiaries & private/PE investments. Can "more than double" $BABA now 4.5% of global fund

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

10 months

Diageo $DGE $DEO capital markets day (Wed) I. Current Context 1/ "Consumer confidence is actively improving" Desire to spend on alcohol up 12 ppt from Feb-22 low "US tracking is showing positive momentum in planned holiday spending relative to last year"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Highlights from Brad Stone's "Amazon Unbound" (thread) 1/ Relevant data is costly to acquire. To gather data for its speech recognition technology, $AMZN rented homes/apartments in Seattle & 10 other cities over 6 months, and paid "thousands" of people to read out scripts inside

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

6 months

Diageo: Nick Train notes Berkshire Hathaway stake "The most recent Bloomberg update suggests Berkshire has acquired a further 18 million shares in Diageo, taking it to above 2% of the outstanding equity" $DGE $DEO $BRK.B NB. 2023YE 13-F still shows same 227.75k shares

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

$FB 21Q4 earnings call (live thread) Past research: 1/ Zuckerberg highlighted 2 things that impacted FB in Q4: (1) competition (like Tiktok); (2) FB's own transition to short-form videos, replacing some existing surfaces. These mean ST revenue pressure...

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Visa's next CEO McInerney at Citi conf. (15-Nov): 1/ $V network continuing to grow. Credentials growing at ~10% (incl. double-digits in US debit); no. of sellers rose from 25m 10 years ago to 100m 2/ Tap to Pay now >½ of WW face-to-face transactions, incl. 28% in US, 70%+ ex-US

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Philip Morris is an "unlucky" company for US investors Between currencies (strong USD, weak EM), Canada class action & Russia/Ukraine war, EPS didn't grow in 2013-22 Adjusted EPS is lower in 2022 ($5.34 ex. Russia & Ukraine) than in 2013 ($5.40) (We are a longtime $PM holder)

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

$BATS share price has halved since early 2017 I wonder what happened there ...

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

I have a new website! It has a full list of my current research, organised by industry; a place where you can sign up for my mailing list; and other content that will be added over time. Come visit at

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 months

Bill Ackman on Fannie/Freddie (29-May $PSH Q1 call) "Probably our best performing stock for the last 18 months ... a proxy on the probability of ... Trump being elected ... If you're supportive of ... Trump, then you can buy the stock" $FNMA $FMCC

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Visa $V CFO at Bernstein conf. (31-May) 1/ US Payments Volume growth y/y stable at ~5% through Mar-May; transaction growth stable at 7-8%, but ticket size smaller y/y as inflation reversed y/y 2/ ~5% growth is pre-COVID norm in US Payments = 3-4% transactions + 1-2% ticket size

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

4/ Auto insurance biz. will benefit from inflation "Inflation is basically good for insurers because ... it writes bigger premiums on much bigger coverages ... Compared to ... 20 years ago ... the price of auto insurance has gone up, like, 30 or 40 for one"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Remember Adyen $ADYEN was named by Terry Simth / Julian Robbins as the company they would buy at the right price when asked at the Fundsmith AGM in early 2023

Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

(Q&A) 1/ Example of stock they want to buy at right price: $ADYEN. Like $PYPL, which has "slightly gone off the reservation", but has stay focused on core biz. 30% Return on Capital, good structural growth, but 60x P/E too expensive on any projections. Waiting for a "glitch"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Estée Lauder $EL CEO at Barclays conf. (6-Sep) 1/ Acknowledged problems in FY23, blamed slower-than-expected Asia Travel Retail recovery, and emphasized EL "had done many, many important things for the long term" and did well outside Asia TR 2/ Acknowledged weak US performance

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

11 months

Artisan Partners on Industrial Gas companies (Linde $LIN, Air Liquide $AI, $APD) Industry sales to grow at 7.4% CAGR next decade Hydrogen can be game-changer Distribution density entrenches incumbents Oligopoly: 3 players have 75% On-site contracts are LT, have price escalators

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Raytheon $RTX 2023 investor day (19-Jun) I. CEO Intro 1/ Company to be known as RTX (was Raytheon Technologies), with 3 key brands: Collins, Pratt & Whitney & Raytheon 2/ "Best portfolio in aerospace and defense" 3/ "We defend democracy across the world"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Great Jim Chanos interview: "The one thing that people are not prepared for still, is interest rates resetting meaningfully higher because it hasn't happened in most investors' lifetimes". "This market will not be able to handle 5% or 6% 10-year"

Bloomberg

@business

2 years

Legendary short seller Jim Chanos says some of the worst hit stocks on the market still have much further to fall

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

$GOOG -11% from Nov-21 peak Ex. cash, 24x LTM EPS; 2.9% FCF Yld post-SBC Google Cloud, Other Bets losses cut EBIT by 20% LT winner w/ huge pricing power + op leverage Ad revenue grows >10% every year ex. 2020 (9%) Long-term EPS CAGR easily >10% With flat P/E, IRR also easily >10%

Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

"Alphabet: 80%+ EBIT Growth In Q3, Unaffected By iOS 14 Or Macro". Q3 $GOOG revenues +41% y/y & 57% on 2-year (21Q2: +55%). Broad-based strength in ad businesses. Google Cloud revenues +7.8% from Q2 on similar op. loss. Cheap on 25x LTM EPS, 2.7% FCF Yield

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Mastercard announces dividend hike & new buyback program. DPS +11% y/y to $0.49 ($1.96 p.a.), 0.6% Dividend Yield. New buybacks of $8bn, to start after completion of current program ($4.4bn left). Total $12.4bn authorisation equivalent to 4% of current market cap. $MA -10.4% YTD.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Visa CFO on why BNPL no threat to $V/MA (DB conf): 1/ Just new way to deliver credit 2/ Still extremely small 3/ Cost vs. traditional credit not yet clear 4/ Not been in full credit cycle 5/ Helps larger buys 6/ Multiple transactions 7/ BNPL provider may need V/MA to pay merchant

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Mastercard $MA CFO at Moffett conf. (Wed) 1/ No change in macro. "First 2 weeks of May ... very much in line w/ our expectations". US & Europe both "remarkably resilient". No impact on consumer credit from banking crisis. APAC cross-border recovering. Expects resilience in FY23.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

4 months

@EdwardGLuce Surely you are not suggesting that a body of people who are selected to pass a confirmation process by a heavily-gerrymandered legislature and who can then serve for life is somehow incompatible with real democracy?

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Fundsmith exited Adobe $ADBE in Mar-23, began buying (undisclosed) new position Fund +3.8% in Mar-23 and +6.9% YTD, ahead of MSCI World's +0.9% and +4.8% Few changes in top-10, except $ADP replaced by $MKC, can be due to price moves not trades Cash at 3.9% vs. 4.9% last month

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 months

Philip Morris $PM 24Q2 Volume +2.8%, incl. cigarettes +0.4% HTU +13.1%, US ZYN +50.3% Total revenues +9.6% organic, +5.6% reported EBIT +12.5% organic, +34.2% reported Adj. EPS +10.6% ex-FX, -0.6% in $ Raises FY24E Adj. EPS to $6.33-6.45 Implies 11-13% growth ex-FX (was 9-11%)

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 months

@DavidGauke Surely you are not suggesting that the Conservatives' lead in the "50+ year olds with low education" group and no other is insufficient to win a general election?

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

David Einhorn: "Likely (post-SVB) change in Fed policy might be incrementally bullish... While we think the market is wrong about rate cuts this year, we doubt that there will be many further hikes from here. As a result, we shifted our equity positioning from bearish to neutral"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Fundsmith Emerging Equities Trust to liquidate. Terry Smith: "We would only run funds where we felt we had a particular edge ... (FEET) has fallen below our expectations". NAV gained 4.5% p.a. since inception, vs. benchmark's 6.5%. Top holdings include $MELI & Unilever Hindustan

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

$GOOG CFO Ruth Porat at MS conf. (08-Mar) 1/ Cost cuts: "We are looking to slow the rate of expense growth such that ... revenue growth exceeds expense growth" This is an upgrade from what's said at 22Q4 call, which was "expense growth cannot be growing ahead of revenue growth"

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Sequoia on exiting Mastercard after 15 years (16:59). Has been selling last 2 years. $MA "at least fairly valued, perhaps fully valued" for some time. Also "real" emerging threats from Fintech, incl. ex-US. Exit also due to "pull" from better alternatives.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

9 months

British American Tobacco $BATS $BTI We've been skeptical of mgmt MSD EPS growth target and used LSD since we started publishing forecasts (table below from March 2020) But this doesn't mean we haven't been wrong about share price over certain periods

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Artisan Global Equity Fund ($400m AUM) "exited almost all of our stock positions in China" Alibaba $BABA: "deteriorating cloud revenues, tepid GMV & increased competition with short video" Others were: MeiDong Auto Luckin Coffee China Tourism Group Duty Free ANTA Sports

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

5 months

On Hershey $HSY, presented without comment: "It is entirely possible that Hershey has so little cocoa in its products that the financial impact won’t be particularly dramatic" h/t @lhamtil

Upslope Capital

@UpslopeCapital

5 months

Upslope's Q1 2024 letter:

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Sequoia Fund -29% YTD, vs. S&P500 -20% ($); underperformed materially last 10, 5 and 3 years. Still holds $GOOG ( #1 ) & $META ( #10 ). 22Q2 saw $SAP as 1st new position this year. Likes SAP product stickiness & low competition, volatile during cloud transition, paid "high teens" EPS

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Munger said he had made most of his money from just 4 investments: Berkshire, Costco, Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital and Afton Properties, a real estate venture “It’s the nature of things that a very intelligent man working hard maybe gets 3, 4, 5 really good long-term opportunities"

M&L Capital (AIFM for Manchester & London IT Plc)

@MLCapMan

1 year

Charlie Munger: US banks are ‘full of’ bad commercial property loans

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Given today's reports on US gov. considering menthol ban, reposting slides on Canadian menthol ban experience, from British American Tobacco 2019 CMD. Menthol was 14% of market pre ban. "99% of smokers stay in FMC". "No material industry impact post ban". $MO $PM $BATS $IMB $SWMA

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

$META CEO Zuckerberg interview highlights: - "Basically wrong" to think Meta is wholly focused on the metaverse - WhatsApp will be next major monetization target - Reels now has half the traffic of TikTok outside of China, by some estimates

Sarah Frier

@sarahfrier

2 years

Zuckerberg says some estimates show Reels has half the traffic of TikTok outside China. He also critiqued Apple, again. By @BrodyFord_

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

Mastercard CFO at Autonomous conf. (15-Sep) 1/ Macro: $MA seeing "very low levels of unemployment" "accompanied by rising wage levels" "accompanied by high levels of consumer savings" (good); "inflation remaining at incredibly high levels" and "seems to be persisting" (bad)

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

British American Tobacco Chief Strategy & Growth Officer Kingsley Wheaton at Barclays conf. (5-Sep) 1/ Expects Tobacco industry to need "plethora of category solutions" to suit future consumer needs, much like alcohol industry has beer, wine, spirits, etc. $BATS $BTI

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Trojan Fund (Lyon/Yonge) on Visa: BNPL likely to partner w/ networks, as $AAPL & $PYPL did. $V fees only ~13¢ per $100. $AMZN will settle, impact likely "minimal". V diversifying. But Omicron means slower cross-border recovery. Added more V, now 3.8% of portfolio (was 3.3% Oct).

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

"How AI Will Change Equity Research" Bernstein thinks ChatGPT can be used like 10k interns But Nick Sleep beat larger peers with a team of 3 More FREE here:

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

@mdharrisnyc "A major card network is seeing a ~15% reduction in total usage because they are losing customers to BNPL" sounds implausible. Credit card volume trends for $V & $AXP both show fairly consistent growth (apart from Aug-21 hit from Delta variant); as does $MA data cc @FIGfluencer

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

List of notable funds with significant $FB weights:

Greg Speicher

@Greg_Speicher

3 years

The number of great investors who own $FB (some in outsized positions) is noteworthy: Klarman, Lu, Vinall, Terry Smith, and many more. TikTok, Apple's tracking change and Zuck's metaverse ambitions did not fall out of the sky on Tuesday.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

6 months

"UK stocks are not all that cheap" (FT) Good like-for like valuation comparions including: Shell vs. Chevron Unilever vs. Colgate-Palmolive GSK vs. BMS

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

British American Tobacco replaces CEO immediately "Jack Bowles stepping down ... with effect from 15 May" Replaced by current CFO Tadeu Marroco Search for new CFO "will now commence" Media reports tie exit to role as APAC head in 2013-17 when $BATS breached N Korea sanctions

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

Unilever: Lindsell Train highlighted 62% stake in HindustanLever now worth £40bn, vs. UL market cap £100bn. Shares moved in opposite directions: $ULVR -2% in Aug; $HUL +17% (trebled L5Y). HUL market cap. ₹6.6tn on FY03/20 Net Profit ₹67.3bn. UL is #5 / 8.3% / £532m in LTUK fund

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 months

"Beverage sector serves up cheap drinks for all" (FT) "European beverage companies are now looking relatively cheap on almost any measure" "Diageo’s $DGE historic premium on a p/e basis relative to the MSCI Europe Index has compressed from about 100% in 2022 to 33%"

The Lex Column

@FTLex

3 months

Beverage sector serves up cheap drinks for all

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

4 years

Altria CAGNY slide explicitly referred to expiry of $ABI lock-up in Oct this year, and mgmt. "conducting a thorough analysis of our ABI ownership to determine the best path forward for this investment". Stake is worth $13bn, 17% of current $MO market cap.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

4 years

"Kone: Most Competitive Player In Attractive Sector". Elevator mkt. unit CAGR c. 5% from secular trends, $KNEBV growing faster w/ share gains. LT EBIT margin 16% v. 12.4% now. >50% sales from residential; 10-15% from T&E. 2.7% Div. Yield. €1bn net cash.

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

2 years

US 30-year Treasuries now at 3.4% yield Last peak was Oct-18 at 3.4%. Back then: $MA at ~$215, 33x CY18 EPS ($6.49); now 31x CY22E $V ~$145, 31x FY18 EPS ($4.61); now 27x FY22E $MSFT ~$110, 28x FY18 EPS ($3.88); now 26x FY22E $GOOG ~$1,200, 27x '18 EPS ($43.70); now 19x '22E

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

PayPal mgmt. meeting (8-Jun) notes I. EVP, Global Sales & Merchant Services 1/ $PYPL advantages in scale, reach and trust 2/ PYPL is only player with all 3 biz at. scale: - wallet & commerce (P2P, debit/credit, etc.) - network (checkout) - payment service provider (processing)

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

6 months

Costco $COST share price up 63% since start of 2023, including 12.8% in 2024 year-to-date ... ... during which I spent days digging through mid-caps & complicated sectors like tobacco, banks, chemicals, etc. You don't get extra points for difficulty in investing

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

British American Tobacco: Capital Group now has a 13% holding $BATS $BTI

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Diageo $DGE Scotch day (1-Jun) 1/ Global TBA market +6% in value in 2022 Spirits, Beer both +10% International Whisky +12% Scotch +16% Diageo Scotch +19% (volume +9%) 2/ Scotch #2 category in international spirits #1 in premium+ spirits Scotch grew 1% ahead of TBA historically

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

British American Tobacco: Ken Dart (Spring Mountains) now owns 7.8% (£4.8bn/$6.6bn), up 1%. Last notification was Apr-21; 1st notification (3.0%) was Oct-20. He has also disclosed a 2.8% (£420m / $580m) holding in Imperial Brands. $BATS $IMB LN

Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

British American Tobacco: Spring Mountain raised their stake by 1%, now holds 6.8% (£4.2bn / $5.9bn), possibly taking advantage of price weakness this week after reports of new FDA proposals against menthol & nicotine. 1st notification was a 3.0% stake in Oct-20. $BATS LN $BTI

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

10 months

If you hold British American Tobacco $BATS $BTI, you should care about the US market (½ of earnings) Altria $MO spooked the market on Thu with their Q3 results, sending their shares down 8%+ The problem is explosive growth of disposable e-cigs More here

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

British American Tobacco share price (in $) now back to level when Ken Dart (Spring Mountain) first disclosed a stake in Oct-20 They bought more through 2020 and 2021 and all of the later purchases are likely under water (excl. dividends). $BATS $BTI

Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

3 years

British American Tobacco: Spring Mountain raised their stake by 1%, now holds 6.8% (£4.2bn / $5.9bn), possibly taking advantage of price weakness this week after reports of new FDA proposals against menthol & nicotine. 1st notification was a 3.0% stake in Oct-20. $BATS LN $BTI

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

British American Tobacco 23H1 pre-close update call $BATS $BTI 1/ US cigarette pricing: agrees pricing this year has lagged industry. Sees macro pressures. Still thinks price elasticity is unchanged at 0.35-0.4. Taking more smart & targeted approach, with commercial adjustments

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Librarian Capital

@LibrarianCap

1 year

Terry Smith on Estée Lauder in Fundsmith 23H1 letter: "Stock accumulated in anticipation of a reopening ... (Instead) Chinese consumers are buying ... other luxury goods first" "It has revealed some severe weakness in $EL's supply chain with no manufacturing capability in Asia"

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