#BTC
Liquidity is on the move again, and the sense that
#Bitcoin
is setting up for a
#fuckery
has actually been amplified since yesterday.
#FireCharts
shows that upside liquidity remains thin and easy to exploit, yet bids continue to step down. What is most concerning here is
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
whales continuing to distribute into the range. Watching to see if the $21M buy wall at $42k holds before I press any green buttons.
$33k - $35k is my next down range target, but I would be surprised to see things break down that fast. Wondering if
While sipping on my morning ☕️ analyzing charts, I cranked out a quick video explaining what I'm seeing on the 3 year view of the order book in
#FireCharts
2.0 (beta).
Turn up the sound.
GM ☕️☕️
Warning, I'm jacked up on 2 cups and since
#BTC
is in price discovery there is some speculation on where price could potentially go after the April
#Halving
based on some historical data. I'll also look at potential landing zones if we see a correction any time in the
Here's the chart I promised you guys. As with all market data, it needs some context:
1. Purple Whales execute market orders far more frequently then Brown Mega Whales which means Purple Whale volume is not only exponentially higher then Brown Mega Whale movements, it's also more
As I speculated yesterday, after the
#BTC
Weekly Close, ask liquidity in the $35k - $36k range started to move.
#FireCharts
shows much of what was at $36k is now concentrated at the $35k range and some has been moved into the $38k and $40k levels.
It feels to me like the market
If you think The Bottom is in for
#Bitcoin
, it's not.
I've been sharing this chart since the bear market began, and I can build an argument for every downrange level shown. I personally think there is a high probability of retesting sub $20k levels. That doesn't mean that
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
bid liquidity concentrating in familiar territory. The
@binance
order book shows ~$270M in bids spread from $41.3k-$36.5k with $68M of it focused on the $38.5k-$39.4k range.
Additionally, the buy wall at $26.5k has been broken up and moved up. These are
This
#BTC
price action seems a little crazy to me. Price is defying logic, local tops and gravity.
Market sentiment is split. Many people think we are already in a Bull Market. We could be, but it hasn't been validated...yet.
There are multiple signs that
#BTC
,
#ETH
and many
It feels like
#Bitcoin
is setting up for a
#fuckery
.
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
bid liquidity is stepping down towards the lower end of the range. Hopefully this leads to a legit test of support. I've been expecting that for weeks, so I'm happy to see it play out, but can't help but
#FireCharts
binned CVD shows a mass market dump into $51k. If
#BTC
bull lose this level it won't take much to get to $50k.
In the absence of
#BTCETF
inflows during U.S. overnight hours, if bulls lose $50k then $48.5k comes fast.
#NFA
Sipping ☕️ and analyzing
#Bitcoin
charts.🧐
We may be seeing early signs of a fundamental shift in price sentiment.
Liquidity dampens volatility and
#BTC
whales continue to applying downward pressure on price. So far the bottom of the Golden Pocket (.5 Fib) is holding with
#FireCharts
shows that Less than 24 hours after Notorious B.I.D. pulled a
#BTC
buy wall from $33k, $65M in new
#BTC
bid liquidity appeared above $43k.
Probably nothing...
Not sure that's just weekend plunge protection. I believe it was placed to attract front runners that can
GM,
I packed A LOT into this 10 min
#BTC
analysis to help you prepare for the week, so grab a ☕️ and take some notes.🗒️
Last week's 13.5% celery stick earned a Green W close. What's significant is that is was below the .618 Fib, but above the prior range high of $45k (more on
GM,
Here's another quick
#BTC
Analysis video for ya.
#Bitcoin
has managed to clear some strong technical resistance on the Daily chart, but
#FireCharts
shows bid liquidity is thinning.
While a continuation of the up trend is possible, Wednesday's
#FED
rate hike decision and
Here's a new
#Bitcoin
analysis to take us to the end of the month.
With a green Weekly close and a
#FED
Rate Hike announcement AND the Monthly close coming in 2 days you can expect
#BTC
volatility to continue.
In this video I'll show you where technical resistance and support
#BTC
is testing what I consider to be the strongest technical resistance in the chart. The .618 Fib marks the top of the Golden Pocket on a macro fib retracement from the ATH to the Nov '22
@FTX_Official
Crash induced low.
So far it looks like a rejection which is what I
Looks like we have a Doji Hammer candle forming on the
#BTC
Weekly chart. That typically indicates a bullish reversal is coming. A lot can change between now and Sunday's Weekly close.
If we do indeed print a Hammer,
#Bitcoin
bulls will need to over come resistance at the
Here's a quick
#BTC
analysis with an eye on inflation data.
#Bitcoin
has printed 8 consecutive green D candles. This doesn't happen often, but has always been followed by some level of correction.
IMO, the healthiest correction would test support and establish an R/S flip at
It's too early to say if this December 17th Pattern is going to play out. We can make that determination at the close. For now, but it's safe to say that
#BTC
bulls need to push price back above .5 Fib to reclaim the Golden Pocket or risk losing the 21-Day Moving Average.
@christinaqi
My kid is a high school senior currently going through the college application and interview process. I can't imagine her or any kid with ambition of going to college in this highly competitive environment being late to or skipping an interview.
#Bitcoin
is due for a correction of 20% or more. There are no straight lines so that doesn't mean that $40k is off the table, but I do believe this correction will happen before we see a legit run to a new ATH.
In full disclosure, for most of the year I've been thinking a much
I want to see a retest of
#BTC
support at $33k. The market gives precisely 0 f*cks about what I want, so I will wait patiently for setups to come to me.
#FireCharts
GM ☕️,
TLDR:
#BTC
🚀
The news of the day is that despite the ask liquidity that was stacking at $70k through the weekend,
#Bitcoin
managed a green weekly candle close just above the prior ATH of $69k, and after a quick -2.5% flush shook out weak hands, price launched into price
Ooh look! A new $51M
#BTC
Buy Wall that has no intention of getting filled. After the dump from above $42k they failed to attract enough bid liquidity at $41.5k so they are lowering the bar.
In case you're still wondering, this is what Distribution looks like.
#NFA
GM ☕️
In the last 24 hours we've seen the most significant change in the order book since January.
A rip to $64k and a 49% Monthly candle wasn't on anybody's bingo card, neither was wick down to $58k or nearly $8B in
#BTCETF
inflows that pushed price much further beyond $60k
A lot of analysts were caught off guard this week. Many of us expected a big downside move was coming, but there were a number of reasons I thought it wasn't coming yet, but as I said to
@MBRichardson87
on this week episode of
#BlockchainBanter
, those moves tend to come when you
5 Things you need to know going into the weekend:
1. Today is the
#TradFi
Weekly and Monthly Close
2. Saturday is the
#Crypto
Monthly Close
3. Sunday is the
#Crypto
Weekly Close
4. A potential U.S.
#GovernmentShutdown
is looming
5. Liquidity dampens volatility
Any and all of
GM,
In this
#BTC
analysis we'll look at candle charts as well as order book and order flow data in
#FireCharts
across time frames to give a clear view of where the signs of strength and weakness are in the chart.
So far, BTC has failed to print a full candle above the 50-Day MA
You guys seem to like the morning ☕️
#BTC
analysis videos so here's another.
#NFA
Turn up the sound.
If you like it, please comment and share it. 🙏
Have a great weekend!😎
Multiple rejections from $25k correlates perfectly with
#BTC
macro TA which is a valid reason to TP at these levels, but Notorious B.I.D. is still trying to push price up. Based on the history, and the potential to rip through upside illiquidity, I'm still scalping longs.
#NFA
GM ☕️
Yesterday I showed you some fundamental changes in the order book and today we have more significant developments to talk about.
If seeing weakness at $69k wasn't enough reason to expect
#Bitcoin
price to pull back, Trend Precognition gave us some bright red
GM ☕️
I often say that you shouldn't trade solely on one source of information (including me). It's best to use different sources of data to and find confluence that helps bring clarity and confidence to what you see in the charts. In this analysis I'll show you where we do have
🔥
#FireCharts
shows
#BTC
asks stacking around $29.5k trying to push price into bids stacked around the 100-Day MA, but the 50-Day MA has defended it for 5 consecutive days.
🌶️Expect PA to get spicier as we approach Sun & Mon Weekly & Monthly candle closes.
Enjoy your weekend!😎
GM ☕️
After another BIG day for
#Bitcoin
fueled by massive
#BTCETF
inflows we have a classic Cup & Handle formation at the MACRO level.
Now the question is whether the bottom of the handle plays out as a <10% mini dip, or if it delivers a deeper correction in the 20% - 40%
GM ☕️,
This breakout attempt has been invalidated.
Despite some strength on the D chart, a red weekly close and a red Trend Precognition signal for BTC are evidence of weakness on the Weekly TF. After failing to print full candles with no wicks below the prior ATH, this
This
#Bitcoin
PA has gone from Boring AF to Frustrating AF to Funny AF, but these quick round trips make
#trading
#BTC
fun again.
TBH, I wanted to see price push closer to $28k, but buyers didn't have an appetite for that. Technically, nothing has changed, so I'm not ruling
We have seen a lot of
#BTC
liquidity moving around the order book since the Sunday Close. IMO, a lot of it was simply whales trying to take advantage of FOMO and FUD leading up to
#FED
Chair
#JPow
's press conference. The wall that was removed from $38k was likely plunge
CT is a cesspool of speculation, FUD and disinformation. Tune out the noise and look at the data!
So far, nothing has changed. Trading on blind ETF speculation seems a little crazy to me.
@SECgov
's
#BTC
ETF decision window opens Jan 5-10, so unless you see an official statement
GM ☕️
If I'm going to give today's
#BTC
analysis a name, it's
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.
What you consider Good, Bad or Ugly depends on your bias, so let's look across multiple time frames to gain some perspective and insight that you can apply to your trading strategy.
GM ☕️☕️
There is so much going on in the
#Bitcoin
chart I needed a 2nd cup to do today's analysis.
After another green W candle, it appears that a ladder of bids stretching down to $35k was converted to market orders that pushed
#BTC
above $65k.
IMO, after a breakout above the
If you have a long term view and think sub $20k
#Bitcoin
is on sale, it is.
If you think the
#FED
is about to pivot, it isn't.
If you think THE BOTTOM is in, you are delusional.
#NFA
The aforementioned "Killer Whale Games" have begun.
#FireCharts
shows that plunge protection at $69k has softened, but has managed to hold (for now).
Just because support held on this retest doesn't mean the games are over. In fact, I expect them to intensify as we near the
GM☕️,
In today's
#Bitcoin
analysis we'll look at key Moving Averages and
#algotrading
indicators across different time frames, and take a deeper dive into Trend Precognition which is indicating that bullish momentum still exists, but is losing strength. The struggle at the
It's Game Day!
The
@MiamiDolphins
shut down the
@Patriots
31-17 and now I'm focused on
#Bitcoin
Whale Games.
#FireCharts
shows about $80M in
#BTC
ask liquidity stacked in the $35k - $36k range in the
@binance
order book. That's heavy resistance for sure, but I'm wondering if we
A long awaited test of
#Bitcoin
technical support is coming in hot, but do not rush to assumptions!
The charts will reveal everything you need to know in due time. IMO the LL at $24,750 is the critical level to watch, and I'm not pushing buttons until I see if it holds or
The order book and order flow data in FireCharts binned CVD shows that Bitcoin Whales are feeding on ask liquidity, and although bid liquidity is thin in the active trading zone, bid liquidity from the lower part of the range is drifting higher. Collectively, this activity along
Seems like this fat block of
#BTC
ask liquidity may have been put in place to prevent a Green W close. I'm speculating about the possibility that one of THE 10
#BTCETF
institutions put that up to keep price from running back to the $70k range before
#TradFi
markets open and they
I've spent the last hour toggling between
#FireCharts
and
#TrendPrecognition
trying to decide if/when to push buttons.
Seeing Purple Whales start unloading everything they've bought in the last 24 hours convinced me to start scaling out (derisking) a long scalp, but even though
#FireCharts
shows $30M in ask liquidity just appeared at $36k on the
#BTC
chart. Expecting a pull back, possibly to the swing low before an attempt at that. Not sure bulls will make it to $36k, but don't think this rally is over yet. I could be wrong. Watching charts for clues.
A Trader's Summary of This Action Packed Week:
The Monday candle close delivered a Death Cross between the 21-Day and 200-Day MAs on the
#Bitcoin
D chart.
A knee jerk reaction to headlines from Tuesday's
@Grayscale
v.
@SECGov
court ruling pumped
#BTC
8.5%, but savvy traders who
It's Friyay!
Here's my
#BTC
Analysis as we head towards the weekend...
Trend Precognition is showing a new ⬆️ on the D chart, and price has cleared some key technical levels.
The fact that price is consolidating in this range is healthy, and I want to see resistance at the
Pushed the Volume Percentile filter in
#FireCharts
and did a little markup to highlight the key levels I'm focused on right now.
Now, back to the weekend.😎
GM ☕️
After a massive green monthly close, it's time to filter out the noise and focus on the macro outlook for
#BTC
.
Filtering out the lower volume in the order book allows us to focus on the most important levels of resistance and support. These are the areas where bid and
GM☕️
#Bitcoin
continues to rip from the top of the Golden Pocket, and
#BTCETF
demand has pushed price past technical resistance at $52k.
In this
#BTC
analysis I discuss how we got here and what could happen in next. I always think it's important to identify what can happen in
One last look at the charts before calling it a night reveals a trend reversal.
Trend Precognition is showing a new ⬇️ on the
#BTC
Daily chart. It’s worth noting that this is the first time we’ve seen the A1 Slope Line indicate any bearish momentum since August 31st, and it’s
Up early, before the family is awake, sipping ☕️ by the
#FireCharts
🔥and watching the sunrise over the lake. Wondering if Santa 🎅 is going to give us the 🎁 of a dip to deeper support.
☃️Merry Christmas to you and your family. Wishing you a healthy, joy filled and prosperous
I sincerely hope that last night's flash dump didn't liquidate you, and I also sincerely hope it woke you up from your delusional "Up Only" dream.
The worst is yet to come.
#NFA
GM ☕️
The
#Bitcoin
chart still feels toppy above $52k, but demand for the
#BTC
Spot
#ETF
continues to be a driving force that has kept price elevated.
By analyzing order flow with
#FireCharts
Binned CVD we can see signs that some of that institutional
#BTCETF
buy pressure may
GM☕️
The market is giving us mixed signals so let's look at what's bullish, what's bearish and what could influence the next move.
Looking at a 1 year view of the order book in
#FireCharts
reveals over $200M in
#BTC
ask liquidity overhead, and a large ladder of bid liquidity
GM ☕️
Yesterday I expressed concern about losing the 21-Day Moving Average and now you know why.
History shows us the price action that tends to follow losing the 21-Day, and more profoundly, the 21-Week Moving Average.
The Good News: We still have bid liquidity (support)
GM ☕️,
Bitcoin made history by printing 7 consecutive green Monthly candles, but don't be the April Fool and allow yourself to believe it's "up only" from here. The fact that today, price wicked below $69k is a sign that momentum is not be as strong as people may think. IMO,
GM☕️
It's Fri-Yeah! Here's what I'm watching as we head into the weekend and W candle close.
After a healthy test of support at the top of the Golden Pocket (.618 Fib),
#BTC
is attempting to validate the R/S flip with an 8% W candle. We've already seen 3 consecutive D candles
The most important thing to remember when analyzing order books is that liquidity dampens volatility.
FireCharts currently shows a modest ladder of bid liquidity anchoring support from $55k - $59k and ask liquidity strengthening resistance around $66k.
With the Presidential
GM ☕️
Woke up to a big red candle and I'm happy to see it.🤑
I've been telling you that
#Bitcoin
is due for a correction. If you were surprised by this move, you either haven't been paying attention or you bought into the "Up Only" narrative which doesn't exist, even in the
Remember when
#FED
Chair
#Powell
spoke from Jackson Hole last year and his hawkish tone triggered a 29%
#BTC
dump that took 5 months to recover? 🤮
#JPow
returns to
#JHole
this Friday and there are some similarities in the PA we are seeing now and the PA we saw leading up to
GM☕️,
This is going to be a critical week for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Historically, rejections from this range have not gone well for BTC. Sure, this time might be different...but is it?
If BTC can recover from here, it's not likely to happen fast without a
After the weekly Close/Open,
#BTC
lost the key moving averages and the trend line.
Now the question is whether we see a bounce or a rug pull from the bid liquidity below.
#FireCharts
Don't catch knives.
A lot of the market was caught off guard by
#Bitcoin
's explosive move to the upside. Trend Precognition indicated on both the Weekly and Monthly chart that we would see an extension of the rally, so I was positioned for that, but the move went further and faster than I expected.
#Bitcoin
is trading in a very significant range. The trend line from the ATH has confluence with the 2017 Top which is precisely where the
#BTC
bulls are currently retesting resistance.
Always cautious of fakeouts, but a legit breakout from has potential for a nice rally.
#NFA
@GrantCardone
That $50B isn't coming directly from U.S. Tax Payers.
It was a collective decision from G7 Leaders/NATO Allies to use $50B of the $300B in seized Russian bank accounts to fund a $50B Loan to Ukraine.
.
It's been an exciting day in the market, but I spent most of it traveling. Back at home after an epic, family vacation refreshed, recharged and ready to take on 2024. Will be catching up on returning messages and calls and diving back into charts in the morning.
Before I go to
1/6
#BTC
crabbed 🦀 through the weekend as predicted, and we're looking for the next move.
The charts show that we are at an inflection point, and
#BTC
price is about to forced into a position that gives us more clarity.
This 🧵will teach you how I analyze it.
UPDATE
The order book is a living, organic beast and things can change quickly.
Throughout the day,
#BTC
bid liquidity has been increasing in the $42k - $43k range and whales are buying aggressively. There's no denying that those are bullish signs, but there are also some
GM☕️,
In today's
#Bitcoin
analysis we'll look at key Moving Averages and
#algotrading
indicators across different time frames, and take a deeper dive into Trend Precognition which is indicating that bullish momentum still exists, but is losing strength. The struggle at the
You have to ask yourself how and why
#BTC
price is moving so aggressively on declining volume.
The answer seems to be, "Speculation" on
@SECGov
approving a
#Bitcoin
#ETF
during the current active Nov 9th - 17th approval window.
I won't speculate on
Something to consider before you FOMO into
#BTC
at this level.
There is ~$175M in
#BTC
ask liquidity (aka resistance) stacked between here and $50k, and only ~$50M in bid support down to $43k. As a
#DataVisualization
tool,
#FireCharts
illustrates it perfectly.
The Weekly close
Congrats! You made it through the first week of 2024. I've got some bids laddered down in case weekend whale games facilitate some Pre-ETF Decision dip buying opportunities, but expect
#BTC
to stay in the range for now. PA will likely heat up as we approach the Weekly Close and
GM☕️
We have some significant changes in the
#Bitcoin
chart that you need to keep an eye on.
Midway through the week we are seeing the
#BTC
W candle slip into red territory. There is certainly plenty of time for it to recover, and the massive amount of
#BTCETF
inflows should
Yesterday I showed you the key levels I was watching, and now we see
#BTC
price moving towards those technical resistance levels we expected as we near the Weekly candle close.
Don’t forget the Monthly close is right around the corner. Things are not always what they seem to be.
@CaseyCagle
@Delta
@NRA
No question who is buttering your bread
@CaseyCagle
. If the
@NRA
does more for Georgia’s economy than
@Delta
please share those numbers. P.S. ALL things considered, “I will kill” is probably not your best choice of words.
What a difference a day makes.
Here's today's
#Bitcoin
Analysis. 📈📽️
Yesterday
#BTC
made a significant upside move with the help of some liquidity herding from below and a partial roof pull at resistance.
Now we are looking at the first D candle in 11 consecutive days to
If we look at the
#Fibonacci
levels from the ATH to the macro swing low for
#Bitcoin
we find ourselves testing support inside the Golden Pocket. That's bullish if the .5 Fib holds and leads to a break out above the .618 level, but at the moment there seems to be a battle to hang
Let me clarify something here. I'm not expecting a >70% correction. The low in 2020 was from a Black Swan related to Covid. What this chart illustrates is the similarity between the fib retracement from the Bull Market top to the macro swing low. Until we see if
#BTC
can
GM☕️
The
#Bitcoin
Rocket has cleared the launch pad. Special thanks to
@SpaceX
for image of
#BTC
analysts watching the price action.
I've been warning you that volatility would increase as we approached the monthly close and the reasons for that include whales exploiting FUD
Bitcoin bulls managed to get a green Monthly candle close, but there is much more to this story.
📉In today's analysis we'll take another look at
#BTC
and
#ETH
in the wake of
#JPow
's comments and the Monthly close.
Trend Precognition is flashing new ⬇️ signals on the Monthly
The bid wall at $33k disappeared AGAIN and Brown MegaWhales bought resistance at the local top AGAIN.
If you think MegaWhales have an issue with timing, re-read the thread I shared from
@MI_Algos
.
No telling how long they keep this game going. Of course, I have my theory about
With so much of the upside liquidity gone, it won't take much for
#BTC
to reclaim $27k.
Let's see if Purple Whales can make this scalp pay off.
#FireCharts
GM ☕️
Weekend volatility is back. I hope you didn't get rekt, and hope you were able to capitalize on the opportunity to buy the dip and or short the local top.
#Bitcoin
price dumped hard through the trend line taking out the nearest Lower Low.
Price bounced from the second
Happy to be waking up recovering well from surgery and seeing a new Trend Precognition ⬆️ signal on the BTC daily chart. I know I’ll be back to 100% very soon, not convinced Bitcoin is on a similar path to recovery.
Bulls need to push past strong technical resistance at the
#JPow
speaks from
#JHole
at 10:05am ET. His words will move and markets.
Liquidity dampens volatility so watching
#FireCharts
thermal map of the order book to see where liquidity moves, and watching the binned CVD to see when whales start pushing buttons.
Prepared for a test of