Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर @freshjiva Twitter profile

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

6 months

my expected timeline for @tesla autonomous taxis: Q1 '24-Q3 '25: exponential growth in computing power & training, FSD v14 Q4 '25: first unsupervised company-owned robotaxi Q4 '26: first unsupervised customer-owned robotaxi Q4 '27: robotaxi ARR crosses $100m Q4 '28: robotaxi

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

What happens when $TSLA prints a $4 BILLION free cash flow quarter and net cash on the balance sheet swells to nearly $24 billion on January 25? That's at least 3 years of cash runway entering the recession, assuming $0 sales and zero layoffs.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

$TSLA stock might in fact be the largest transfer of wealth from hedge funds to small-dollar retail investors in the history of the stock market. And that is a glorious thing.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

11 months

elon isn't anti-semitic lmfao. emotions are causing people to lose their minds.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Millennials are significantly poorer than the prior two generations at this point in their lives, and it isn't even close.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

I'm absolutely pumped for tonight. People are sleeping on this product, when its $TSLA's most important hardware product to date. To be blunt, $55K luxury cars and SUVs don't interest me nearly as much as an all-electric big rig. The implications are truly spectacular.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

You're not a real $TSLA investor until you've seen your account get cut in half. The young new padawans are learning that real quick 😂

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

$TSLA currently ranks #1 in the entire Nasdaq-100 in terms of forward revenue growth (FY '23 vs FY '22) of +39% while trading significantly cheaper on fwd P/E than other companies growing at a similar pace at only 35x.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

The Gigapress is my favorite Tesla manufacturing innovation. 40% cost savings, 79 fewer parts. Diecasting of this size requires high strength alloy that is coated & heat-treated. So Tesla invented their own alloy. No car manufacturer has ever done this at scale.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Toyota and Ford’s electric vehicle programs summarized in one photo. $TM $F

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

If Tesla unveils a million mile battery, it will permanently change the total cost economics of a Tesla. Imagine needing only one car your entire adult life with minimal maint & energy cost vs burning through 4-5 petrol cars over that time. Owning any other car is insane.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

$TSLA valuation today implies: $0 Cybertruck gross profit $0 Megapack gross profit $0 Tesla Semi gross profit $0 Insurance gross profit $0 robotaxi gross profit $0 Tesla Bot gross profit $0 Gen3 car gross profit Only S3XY cars are being priced in.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

The Tesla Semi is such a major part of my $TSLA thesis, I'd actually sell *some* of my shares if for whatever reason Tesla fails to scale it. The world cannot wait for this beast. This isn't a want. It's a need.

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@freshjiva

2 years

I just tested $TSLA FSD Beta (10.69.2) for the first time. Holy shit, wow, Went cross town on zero interventions. Included an unprotected left turn and driving through a crowded area with pedestrians jaywalking everywhere. Handled it all with perfection.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 years

The lack of understanding of what's going on with $TSLA is incredible, @CNBCFastMoney . If we get 1000+ likes to draft @Gfilche to come onto your show and explain it to your traders, will you bring him on? Please like + retweet if you agree Galileo should be invited to the show.

CNBC's Fast Money

@CNBCFastMoney

5 years

Tesla tops $100 billion in market cap, making it the second most valuable carmaker in the world. The traders weigh in on $TSLA's record run.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Tesla has invested $7.8 billion in CAPEX TTM for Giga Berlin & Austin, expanding Shanghai, 4680 cell development & mfr and Fremont Plaid tooling… …and generated $9.9 billion operating cash flow, *before* Austin and Berlin have even come online. Repeat after me: ROIC.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

I begged my friends to buy $TSLA at $150. They thought it was going lower. I then showed them I emptied my savings acct to buy at $110. They still thought it was going lower. They now say “Gahh, I’ll buy it on the next correction.” I cannot explain how frustrating this is.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 months

I drove for an hour across baltimore today during business hours - fort McHenry to canton to penn station and back - with zero interventions. this was my first experience with FSD v12 (12.3.4). it navigated around multiple construction crews, temporary & permanent stop signs,

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

We removed one moron from office only to install another one 🤦🏻‍♂️ How is this the best we can do as a country? Whatever happened to the Parties of Lincoln, FDR, and Reagan?

Rookie

@Investor421

3 years

If you needed a good laugh this evening…. @WholeMarsBlog @28delayslater @elonmusk

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

No. He creates infinitely more value in the private sector.

Steven Steele

@MrStevenSteele

3 years

Would you vote for Elon Musk for President Of The United States? 🇺🇸

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

The Tesla Semi would be @Tesla 's most important hardware product to date. Trucks are: 1. 4% of all vehicles but 30% of all emissions, 2. Poor 4-7 mpg efficiency. 3. Move 72% of all cargo by weight in the US, 4. >2m global unit sales by 2024, 5. Cost economics > brand loyalty.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

@elonmusk why not let Tesla owners enroll in a voluntary program to give test drives to interested buyers. If they buy, owner gets $100. Would greatly reduce stress on Tesla stores and make test drives local in most cases.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

I absolutely love Ganesh Venkataramanan's presentation style. Refreshing to hear someone slow everything down, placing emphasis on just the right things. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

People think the $TSLA Semi is a small opportunity vs Cybertruck, but I beg to differ. Its potential extends far beyond today's 1M/yr unit TAM. If FSD is solved, the Semi is Tesla's entry into global logistics & supply chains. This product will move aggregate GDP.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

Tesla's new tabless 'Roadrunner' in-house cell with 1 million mile / 4000 charge cycle capacity will be the final solution to permanently shift cost economics from petrol cars to EVs. 'Battery Day' may go down as one of the most seminal moments in automotive & industrial history.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

Keep all your $TSLA shares behind lock and key. Keep them close to your chest. Keep them buried underneath your mattresses. We aren't giving you indexers any!

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 months

The biggest GFY tonight is to none other than Judge McCormick. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

This is likely the third greatest buying opportunity in $TSLA since IPO, in terms of the stock price action being at great odds with fundamental trends. 1. 2013 battery fire FUD 2. 2019 bankruptcy FUD 3. 2022 "growth fears" "Twitter overhang" and China demand FUD

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

8 months

i'm no attorney but how does a court even have the right to reverse what shareholders voted on and overwhelmingly approved of a company officer's compensation plan? $tsla

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

The $TSLA Semi will generate more revenue and gross profit than Model S, X and Roadster 2.0 combined. Bigger TAM, upside potential of Convoy/platooning, magnitudes bigger commercial implications of autonomous freight. But most importantly, far more important to the Tesla Mission.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Tesla likely minted $2.5 BILLION free cash flow in Q4 and the highest operating margins in company history. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

7 months

i miss the @elonmusk of 2009-2019. the passion for mars. the dorky technofuturist discussing physics and epistemology. i know he is still inside the guy we see today, but he’s been mostly silenced.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 months

@anammostarac its not just a recalibration needed. somebody at google did this deliberately. find them and terminate them, or else no one will take your efforts to increase search accuracy seriously. as of right now, its still happening.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

1 year

Tesla Model Y will last 500,000 miles on average without any major repairs/replacements, in my opinion. This means you get ~3 petrol cars for the price of one, in addition to the significant fuel cost savings over that lifespan. This is an overlooked aspect of Tesla ownership.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

The general public is just now waking up to @elonmusk ’s style. They’re just not using to seeing a CEO so raw, unfiltered and unafraid to break things to determine their limits. All of his companies generate insane ROI on their R&D spend, and Twitter will be no different.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

1 year

Tesla has now deployed nearly 40% of its cash into Treasuries, CDs and money market instruments. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Corruption.

Phil LeBeau

@Lebeaucarnews

3 years

Energy secretary defends tax credits for EVs made by unionized automakers, excluding Tesla

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

6 months

i don’t buy the view that @elonmusk ’s politics are hitting tesla sales growth. the #1 culprit, by far, is lack of awareness. i interact with people everyday who like the concept of EVs but are very worried about range, charging, and battery longevity. many still think teslas are

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

@ChrisJBakke @WholeMarsBlog How this is still legal is beyond my understanding. Average people in finance like me have to go through more compliance than her.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Two major takeaways from $TSLA Q4 earnings call: 1. Zach is bullish on FSD take-rate upside for 2022. It’s one thing for Elon to be optimistic; vastly another for Zach to be. 2. Tesla thinks 10M-20M unit vols are still possible even without the $25K car 🤯

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Professor—since you’re so convinced $TSLA is overvalued, let’s see your DCF model going out to 2030 (or beyond if you choose) using actual trends in ASP, margins, ROIC, cost of capital, and reinvestment rate. I’m sure you put one together before publicly making valuation claims.

Scott Galloway

@profgalloway

3 years

@elonmusk However, I don’t believe (and I don't think you do either) that Tesla is worth more than: Toyota Daimler Volkswagen BMW GM Ford Fiat-Chrysler Tata Honda Ferrari Hyundai Boeing Airbus American Air Delta Southwest JetBlue Combined...

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Tesla cash ROIC has now surpassed 30% for the first time, hitting 32.2% as of Q1 2022. This is an elite club, and I believe Tesla will overtake the top dog $AAPL to become #1 on this list by the end of 2023.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

If @Tesla posts a record free cash flow Q4 where the net cash position balloons past a $20 billion war chest, I would strongly urge the Board to approve a meaningful share buyback ASAP. There's no other 40% revenue CAGR, 25% ROIC, 15% FCF margin business selling for 35x P/E.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Met a guy with $1 million net worth by age 35 while earning a $70K salary and no other sources of income. 1. Max out the 401K + IRA 2. Saves 50% of his income; DCAs $QQQ since 2011 3. Bought $10K worth of $AAPL in 2011 + HODLed You don't need a big income to join the top 10%.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

These results are unreal, and confirm everything we had hoped for. Operating leverage ROIC Margins Production capacity Capital allocation This will one day become the largest company in the world. $TSLA

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@freshjiva

3 years

Tesla: "Mr President! We're on the verge of solving autonomy and lean manufacturing to offer long range EVs at increasingly affordable prices. This will revolutionize mobility and place the United States at the cutting edge of technology." BIden: 😶 “…but you're not unionized."

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 months

if elon wants to be in wrecking ball mode, why doesn’t he take it to the entire tesla solar division instead. it’s been a completely worthless division since the $SCTY bankruptcy bailout.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

8 months

Judge McCormick probably has no idea how insanely hard Elon had to work to hit those milestones. that package was passed in 2018 when the company was under severe duress in ramping the model 3. i remember it clearly. it was their first shot at a truly mass market electric car,

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

1 year

When $TSLA reached $110, I raided our savings accounts, including selling our “no-touch” money market mutual funds, to swallow as many shares as possible. I am also lucky to have a wife who supports my calculated risk taking. “Stocks return to their rightful owners during bear

Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

I went in for 500 $TSLA shares today @ $110. It was a massive buy for me, so I won’t be adding any more for some time. But in the event we see a firesale at $65, I will raid my beloved positions in $ABBV and $SFM, both of which are +20% YTD, and use the proceeds + margin to add.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Tesla and SpaceX is literally disrupting the 100% of Russian GDP yet @elonmusk is somehow pro-Russia.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Hot take: replace calculus (useless for 99%) with Finance (useful for 100%) in high school curriculums. Intro to broad asset classes: stocks, bonds and real estate How to save How to invest Compound growth Intro to 4-5 legendary investors and what they recommend for beginners

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Don't succumb to the demagoguery of $TSLA superfans. You can be a fan and supporter of @elonmusk , SpaceX, Twitter, and Tesla while being worried about the implications of his actions.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

Autonomous taxis < autonomous freight. If @Tesla solves autonomy, the $TSLA Semi will become their most valuable program, by far. Trucks move 72.5% of all cargo by weight in the US. The implications of automating this massive component of US GDP are too great to even fathom.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

You can probably achieve max fitness doing just 5 things progressively : 1. Push-ups 2. Pull-ups 3. Running 4. Stretching 5. Diet/nutrition No equipment needed. Thoughts?

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 months

Martin should go down in history as possibly the first (?) corporate IR head who actively involved retail shareholders to participate on earnings calls and company events. He reached out to and honestly solicited feedback from shareholders large and small. No investor is too

Martin Viecha

@MartinViecha

5 months

Folks, today was my final earnings call with Tesla. About a month ago, I spoke with Elon and Vaibhav, to announce that I’m going to be retiring from the world of investor relations and moving on. I’ll be helping out for another couple of months or so, to make sure that there’s a

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

That's insane. This is the best operating margin we've ever seen, and it was achieved on *fewer* regulatory credits. The operating leverage is for real. $TSLA

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@freshjiva

4 years

I'd really like to see Tesla sign a deal with any of the major homebuilders - $LEN $DHI $TOLL $PHM - for new homes to have a $TSLA Solarglass Roof option. Obviously existing homes are a far bigger market, but new construction homes are the lowest hanging fruit imo @elonmusk

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

The number of companies that now trade at a discount to *net cash* has matched the highs following the 2000 bubble bust. The calculation I used is of the strictest kind: (Diluted Shares Out * Price) / (Cash & Equiv - Total Liabilities). We are getting close...

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

They’ll be carbon neutral by 2050 because they won’t exist.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Clearest evidence to date that $TSLA is trading on issues outside of simply macro.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 months

how the hell do I personally own more shares of $TSLA than an ETF

funwithnumberz

@funwithnumberz

5 months

BREAKING: Ross Gerber slashes $GK holding of $TSLA by 50% to 1,000 shares, just a day before earnings. @TeslaBoomerMama

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

If Biden continues this behavior of favoring unions over the ultimate objective, I will not be voting for him in 2024. Back to political apathy. And I don't want to hear about voting for the lesser evil, or voting strategically to block the other party. Just say no to them all.

Gali

@Gfilche

3 years

embarrassed by the US @JoeBiden for touting EVs but not mentioning $TSLA Literally proving that our govt is corrupt and lobbying is institutionalized bribery. so whack 🙄 @elonmusk were never gonna fix anything with this system

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@freshjiva

8 months

As bad as $TSLA stock makes it seem, Q4 results were actually not that bad. Free cash flow is the most important metric for longterm value creation, and: 1. FCF growth resumed its uptrend, well off the lows; 2. FCF margin hit 8.2% for Q4 vs 5.8% a year ago 3. FCF margin TTM

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@freshjiva

3 years

The media attacks of this week is absolutely nothing compared to what we endured on a daily basis in 2016-2019. That was real stress. This is easy. $TSLA

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@freshjiva

3 years

The search for the bottom is near. $TSLA I cannot stress this enough: buying shares of secular growth companies precisely when they're at their avg max drawdown from ATH is one of the best portfolio and risk management moves you can make. Most excess speculation is now removed.

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@freshjiva

9 months

i don’t like to see $tsla eps continue to decline YoY, but it’s obvious @elonmusk doesn’t manage the company based on financial engineering strategies. The only financial question he cares about is: is the balance sheet sound? is tesla as derisked as possible? If that checks

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Twitter is getting....interesting.

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@freshjiva

3 years

$TSLA will generate Apple-like cash returns on capital... ...before autonomy is solved.

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@freshjiva

3 years

Folks - please don't assume everyone who posts something critical of @Tesla is automatically a short-seller or a "shill for big oil". Some people are just honestly misinformed and don't mean harm. Over-aggressive, ad hominem replies are not how to spread the facts.

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@freshjiva

3 years

It’s clear where the Biden Admin’s priorities are, and bending the knee to @UAW ranks higher in the peking order than getting off fossil fuels. I rarely comment on politics because it’s a hot mess, but if they don’t change their behavior, I won’t be supporting Biden in 2024.

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

3 years

Ron Baron on @POTUS Biden’s plan to tax unrealized gains and his animosity towards @elonmusk

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@freshjiva

6 months

the fact that $tsla slashed prices by 20% AND is aggressively investing in growth (at 2X the rate of depreciation) yet *still* managed to produce >$4B free cash flow and build up a $25B net cash warchest (enough to cover total expenses for 1.5 years) is a downright miracle. i

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@freshjiva

2 years

One thing people don’t understand: it’s not about beating or missing WS expectations. It’s about beating or missing investor expectations. $TSLA just posted +40% growth YoY and investors have priced it at <25x p/e on extremely negative sentiment. Use your own judgment.

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@freshjiva

2 years

$TSLA is now in its largest drawdown in its entire publicly traded history, off a record -56.6%. This beats the Q1 '19 carnage when the company burned $1 billion in cash struggling with the Model 3 ramp. This despite setting records today in revenue, margins, growth & ROIC.

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@freshjiva

1 year

$TSLA ranks dead last among Big Tech in R&D as a % of revenue, despite possibly having the #1 pipeline with autonomous driving software, Optimus robots, additional vehicle form factors, Dojo supercomputing, and breakthrough innovation in manufacturing methods for both vehicular

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@freshjiva

3 years

@garyblack00 This is the #1 question of the decade. I am beginning to believe Tesla won't be able to deploy even half their operating cash flow over the next decade. Tesla is simply too capital efficient to require it. This is a high class problem.

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@freshjiva

1 year

Tesla's net interest income continues to compound exponentially thanks to the Fed's rapid rate hikes. It now stands at $210 million *per quarter* and will likely be significantly higher in Q3 as the company poured another $5 billion into such money market instruments. It's

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@freshjiva

5 months

after experiencing FSD v12.3.4 yesterday drive flawlessly in baltimore, i see no reason why tesla cannot at least launch a pilot robotaxi program in select regions of the country within 6-12 months. $tsla

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@freshjiva

4 years

The irony of $TSLA bulls sniffing out the $NKLA fraud while many in $TSLAQ were enamored by its founder knows no bounds.

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@freshjiva

3 years

$TSLA will likely print $1 BILLION GAAP profit in Q1 ‘21.

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@freshjiva

7 months

when is this tesla company talk happening? @elonmusk

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

9 months

Next week, I will do a company talk for SpaceX, followed later by a company talk for Tesla after the 10K. I will recap the talented team’s amazing accomplishments of 2023 and describe exciting plans for 2024 and beyond! These will be posted publicly to @SpaceX and @Tesla .

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@freshjiva

2 years

At least @elonmusk won't have to sell $TSLA shares anymore for liquidity now that he'll be receiving a couple million a year in comp as a $TWTR Board member.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

I think a P/E of 120x is justified for a company with an 8% cost of capital, 30% annualized EPS growth over the next decade, and 2022 EPS of $14/sh. $1680 PT by year-end. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

$TSLAQ in one chart. Happy New Year!

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

Do NOT sell.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

I really don't understand this sentiment. Why is it so hard for people to understand the software is still in beta? They're not sitting around hoarding a perfect system. It's still a major work in progress. It's nothing personal to you or anyone else that doesn't have it yet.

Andy Slye

@slye

3 years

Imagine paying $8,000 for Tesla Full Self-Driving in 2018 then after 3 years you’re told to wait 6 more months for a button when pressed, puts you in a waiting queue to maybe receive a beta version of the software but then getting told you’re not a good enough driver for it

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 years

Updated $TSLA TTM free cash flow. Not a single chart or metric more important than the trend developing here.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Tesla's cash conversion cycle is impressive. CCC is now negative, constantly running a working capital deficit, which opens a source of very cheap financing that can last a very, very long time. Negative CCC is a strong indication of industry dominance. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

1 year

$TSLA is flushed with cash, which now stands at 2.8X TTM operating expenses. This dwarfs their Nasdaq peers. This will balloon even further once we get Q2 earnings on Wednesday. Comps: $NVDA: 0.3X $AAPL: 1.05X $AMZN: N/A (net cash is zero) $MSFT: 0.98X $GOOGL: 1.2X $META: 0.4X

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

🤣🤣 Never change @elonmusk

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

3 years

LMFAO Elon 🤣

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

5 years

Speculation: I believe a whale has entered $TSLA. Stocks rarely break out of multi-YEAR resistance on huge volume and no news without an institution commencing a major buying program. The cumulative drop in short interest doesn’t explain it. Q4 13Fs are going to be pure gold.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

Can Tesla please switch to using high quality mics for these earnings calls? How do YouTubers have higher quality audio than basically all corporate earnings calls lol.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

25% gross margins, ex reg credits, *prior* to Plaid and FSD subscription revenue, and despite a 2% *decline* in ASP and still operating at ~70% of installed capacity, is simply ridiculous. Doubling the Q2 net profit in Q4 is in play. This is a revolution. $TSLA

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 years

Those shocked by the $TSLA surge don’t understand that the 20X move is off a deeply mispriced base at $35 billion mcap at the 2019 lows. Only 12 months later, Tesla would generate $2.5 billion adj net income in 2020, effectively pricing the stock at a 14X fwd P/E.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

This is NOT priced in. $TSLA

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

3 years

Pure Vision Autopilot + FSD Beta 9.1 Drives from Los Angeles to San Francisco with 0 disengagements There was 1 disengagement after getting to SF but it may or may not have been needed Slower on YouTube: $TSLA @elonmusk

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

1 year

Trolls are lining up attacking me for daring to say anything negative about $TSLA. If you want only bullish commentary, feel free to unfollow/block me. I’ve got nothing to sell you. No Patreon, YouTube channel or Twitter subscription. Thank you.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

11 months

idea: $TSLA uses some of its $26 bill cash warchest to offer zero interest financing for anyone who orders a car with FSD and puts 7% down.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Gordon Johnson thinks Ford has a battery technology advantage because the F-150 Lightning, a pickup truck, has a bigger battery than the Model 3, a midsized sedan. Amazing.

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

3 years

"It looks like Ford actually has an advantage in battery technology," says @GordonJohnson19 on $F vs. $TSLA. "There's literally twenties of cars coming that are going to challenge Tesla. They are losing market share."

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

4 months

in 2016, elon made a bid to buy out a failing solar leasing company SolarCity from his cousin, costing $tsla shareholders $2.6 billion (in dilution) + saddled the company with $4 billion in debt absorption + $1 billion in total cash burn from 2016-2019. this greatly enhanced

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

2 years

$TSLA Insurance generates $300M ARR as of 12/31/22, growing 20% *per quarter* This is such a fascinating business opportunity. No automaker has ever dabbled in insurance, until now.

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

3 years

Problem: @Tesla 's cash balance has dwarfed total debt and continues to climb. This happens when cash flow from operations exceeds what they're able to effectively re-invest back into the business at high ROIC for further growth, by an ever-increasing margin:

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Mayur मयूर Thaker ठाकर

@freshjiva

1 year

Weird, I don’t see $TSLA overvalued at all even if it is just a car company. Simple math gets you to $75B net profit just from 10M cars/trucks & 100 gWh Megapack sales, even without software margins beyond what they already do today. 30x multiple = $2.25T market cap, or a 3X in

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

1 year

MORGAN STANLEY: "Investor feedback to our $TSLA upgrade has skewed towards push-back. If limiting the scope to only making and selling cars, Tesla is a significantly overvalued equity. We think there is far more going on below the surface." [Jonas]

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