Always fun, always high energy, always coaching, and forever my mentor and great friend. Thank you, Todd, for everything.
May God bless Todd and his entire family ❤️
In Memoriam: Honoring the Life and Legacy of Todd Jordan
It is with unspeakable sadness and the heaviest of hearts that we share the devastating news of Todd Jordan's sudden and unexpected passing. We are shattered and shaken by this loss. Todd was a dear friend to all of us at
It's been a sad week for the Hedgeye family. I had the pleasure of having the office next to Todd for more than a decade. I learned a lot from him over the years, which is hard to put into a tweet, but:
1. It isn't a martini, if it doesn't have gin.
2. The house always wins (he
This Signal Is (Very) Bullish For Gold
Hedgeye CEO
@KeithMcCullough
remains bullish on Gold and highlights three bullish signals for the precious metal.
🎯
Watch the full clip:
$CHH has an organic growth problem...so they bought Radisson which is proving growth dilutive...and now as competitive pressures intensify and they lap the Radisson deal...they look to buy more growth.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
and I remain bearish on $CHH. More to come on this.
SCOOP: Choice Hotels is seeking to buy Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, in deal that would create one of the biggest budget hotel owners in the country. $CHH $WH
"When millennials and Gen Z have to start paying student loans again, $SHAK $SG and $CMG will feel that headwind."
@HowardWPenney
"I almost didn't even believe how much of a contribution that was to consumption growth."
@KeithMcCullough
Join The Call:
Following up on this week's morning call commentary... Business travel recovery expectations ratcheting back.
Note the downshift over the last 2yrs -- no bueno.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
@Hedgeye
@KeithMcCullough
Just coming up for air after an extremely busy two weeks of deep dive work on the OTA / Leisure travel space. Interesting times for what seems to be the most controversial space in our coverage -- lots of opportunity out there $EXPE, $BKNG, $ABNB
A LOT to consider on this... and we will do just that. Tune in for The Call tmrw to get our more in depth thoughts.
No dog in the $PENN race as of today, but we've been very active on other names potentially implicated here.
$PENN $DIS Parterning to Launch
#ESPNBet
Portnoy out... PENN found a better dance partner.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
@HedgeyeGLL
Here are the details 👇
Exclusive Right to the
#1
U.S. Sports Brand: PENN has secured the exclusive right to the ESPN Bet trademark for OSB in the U.S. for
We're almost through Phase 1 of the earnings szn gauntlet. Lot of pin action across the GLL space with some key names of ours reporting this week - $TRIP, $MAR, $HST, and $DKNG
@HedgeyeSnakeye
@Hedgeye
People are ready to roll... I don't blame. Need cross border restrictions to loosen and the "reopening" for leisure travel will really be firing on all cylinders -- it's on the come, we think. $EXPE, $BKNG, $ABNB
Flight Search Trends Are Unequivocally Higher
'We think the leisure industry will have a compelling story to tell in the coming weeks as earnings start to roll in."
via
@HedgeyeSnakeye
&
@HedgeyeGLL
Sports betting can be emotional and fun... don't do emotional things with your hard earned $... Those funds are not to be treated like the dwindling funds in my $DKNG account...
A fun back and forth with KM before we got into the real work. Exclusively on The Call!
🏈💸Leave Gambling Out of Your Investment Strategy
"Gambling, if it's for entertainment, can be fun and emotional...
But if you're doing that with our Risk Ranges and full-investing cycle process, you're completely going to get killed.
We're not trying to win lotteries here
@DBclouds99
@Street_Insider
@HedgeyeRJM
@KeithMcCullough
Ok so I guess we'll ignore the other names discussed or the history my team and I have with $EXPE. All good since this is twitter... Sorry you thought the free show was a waste. I'll see if I can get you a refund.
Nice day for the Macau stocks w/
@Hedgeye
Investing Ideas name $MLCO leading the pack on strong fwd commentary + improving Macau #'s
@KeithMcCullough
and co.'s macro themes playing through in real time. Economic & Fundamental data
#Divergence
Not that the markets care atm, but this is a big deal for travel. OTAs, airlines, and hotels to benefit.
#CrossBorder
vector has been slow to recover.
$EXPE, $BKNG, $ABNB, $JETS
UNITED AIRLINES - IN 72 HOURS SINCE TESTING REQUIREMENT CHANGES WERE ANNOUNCED, CO HAS ALREADY SEEN MORE THAN 2.4 MLN SEARCHES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL
$UAL
~15 earnings reports in calls in the 48hrs. Absolutely insane, and I am just coming up for air.
On balance, a pretty solid earnings season for us but now the real work starts.
Cc:
@HedgeyeSnakeye
WATCH | The State. The Elites. (The Rest of Us) 🔥
🔊
“If you’ve read
@Peter_Turchin
’s “End Times." He nails this. I’ve cited it a bunch of times. He nails this. And so does my partner Neil Howe
@HoweGeneration
in "The Fourth Turning Is Here."
The future's not bright for
Hat tip to $MAR for running a solid call. Plenty of non-answers, but they had a good day. With RevPAR momentum and non-RevPAR fees (credit card fees mostly) still growing solidly, the real issues we see in NUG are masked for now, but that will change in 2H and '24.
Faxing them over to you shortly... More to do but I like how the deck is shaping up.
#Macau
has been a hot topic with clients and deservingly so.
A LOT of cross currents (and opportunity).
LET THE SUMMIT BEGIN!!!
We are super excited to announce our 9th "Hedgeye Investing Summit" hosted by
@KeithMcCullough
We are certain this will be the most actionable + insightful + entertaining content you will find anywhere
Register for free access:
$CZR adding to the list of Las Vegas beats. $MGM is outperforming we think but confirmation that this market is just built different.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
good to see $MGM rally back today but stock is stupid cheap vs catalysts and growth ahead this yr and next
Some fresh data via the
#JobsReport
today that has implications for hotels. Wage growth (YoY and vs '19) still tracking way ahead of ADR growth (room rates) for higher end biz focused hotels.
Something to monitor for '22 / '23 estimates
Busy AM of GLL earnings --
@HedgeyeSnakeye
ran through our post-game notes on The Call for $EXPE, $RHP, $MGM, and $HLT
A LOT to like in some of our top ideas, including a few of the above, but TBD on market reactions.
The hype is certainly real re: Miami... Awesome day of client meetings followed by a great
#HedgeyeRegional
event yesterday. Productive, engaging, and fun.
Back to the grind - new events and earnings szn prep
@Hedgeye
@HedgeyeSnakeye
Phase 2 of the earnings szn gauntlet now in the past. I am going to work on providing more real time tweets (still new here). Another week of decent sized moves across the GLL space - as always...
Our introductory series continues with
@HedgeyeSnakeye
&
@HedgeyeGLL
in season 3 Episode 18 “Investing in GLL: House Rules with Todd Jordan and Sean Jenkins” Listen on $AAPL $SPOT or right here. We discussed $BKNG $HLT $MAR $EXPE $HST $BYD
$DKNG – stealing the show today after the call. Rev growth acceleration and beat. Guidance increase and more confirmation that the story is on track. There are legs to this story that have not yet played out. Stock could go higher.
How is it possible that $MPW did not disclose with 2Q23 earnings the 7.20.23 order from CA around PHP?
The key question from here is what does the CA order around Prospect / PHP mean for other parts of the deal, particularly the CT sale?
And also, is this the "F" word?
For those on the The Call this AM... $MLCO printed and hosted a conf call after it was our turn to speak. Would have otherwise commented on it. Takeaway is unchanged -- Macau trending in the right direction!
A day in the
@Hedgeye
Boston office keeps you on your toes. Between the A/C that sounds like a tornado hitting and
@HedgeyeGLL
yelling random profanities while listening to earnings calls, can't let your guard down.
Hotel REITs (ex. $RHP), hung in a little better than we would have expected following some big whiffs on guidance and pretty uninspiring conference calls. Still like many of these on the Short side. In fairness, stocks were down big into this wk.
Vegas, baby! This is going to epic for those in attendance.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
preso will be action packed but he'll also be rocking the craps tables, too.
Get those tickets booked asap!!!
Las Vegas, here we come! 🎰🎲
Join us Tuesday, Sept. 12.
📈9am-5pm: Exclusive presentations from the Hedgeye research team
🍻Happy hour with
@KeithMcCullough
and
#HedgeyeNation
🍽️Private dinners with our analysts
Our special "Early Bird All Access" ticket pricing expires
Baker signs SB bill. Big party in the
@Hedgeye
Boston office today! hopefully, it goes live after NFL szn so
@HedgeyeGLL
won't blow his bonus on the
@Patriots
As discussed on
#TheCall
this AM by
@HedgeyeSnakeye
-- the Las Vegas Strip is in for a big week / weekend. The
@NFLDraft
is going to be huge (yuge) for visitation & RevPAR. Providing a nice contribution to Q2 and full year...
Yup, that's what it's looking like. Good discussion this AM on The Call. Just publish our Research Round Up from our OTA themes deck... check those inboxes, Pro Subs
"Robust and stable realized demand + elevated but stable bookings + accelerating ADRs = accelerating revenue growth. That’s the formula on tap for the alternative accommodation (AA) into the summer ’22."
via
@HedgeyeSnakeye
&
@HedgeyeGLL
Plenty of stocks we like and dislike in GLL... $RHP being one we have liked and continue to like. Has been a top idea since last July.
For the full clip from today's call -->
Slow wk, but there was plenty to discuss in our AM note... Top 3 things for us today:
1) Regional Gaming - visitation vs spend per visit
2) Regional Gaming - future casino supply growth
3) Hotels - corporate bookings trends
Today is Bob Rich's birthday🎂!!!
In addition to being a world-class cartoonist, Bob is a world-class human being. We're blessed to have him on our team.
It's the MACAU show as
@HedgeyeSnakeye
suggested earlier this AM. Tune in at 9AM ET.
In addition to Macau + Macro, we'll also run through our own Top 3 things!
Looking forward to it!
THE MACRO SHOW
Live at 9 ET with hosts
@HedgeyeSnakeye
and
@HedgeyeGLL
Top 3 things this morning:
1) Credit
2)
#Quad4
3) NFIB/Earnings
Get prepared.
Join us:
An abbreviated clip from this AM where I touched on the tricky setup for US hoteliers on the leisure front.
We see outbound demand making new highs while inbound traveler demand remains depressed relative to '19. That + tough ADR comps = more headwinds to consider.
“If you’re a hotel that over-earned because customers couldn’t travel many places until late last summer, you’re facing difficult comps."
@HedgeyeGLL
“Like I needed another data point to get more negative on the US consumer.”
@KeithMcCullough
Full clip:
@KeithMcCullough
and
@HedgeyeSnakeye
also discussed the tactical setup for the Vegas related stocks. Given the environment (Quad 4), those discussions are more important than ever.
Going on camera via
@HedgeyeTV
for our Q1 earnings prep deep dive. Deck is jam packed with data, charts, and takeaways heading into an important earnings season.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
and I are tired but we're caffeinating up as we speak. Should be a fun one!
Lots of GLL names during the Investing Summit... we have a history with this one and are cooking up some new content on OSB and iGaming
@HedgeyeSnakeye
@WallStCynic
"Draftkings $DKNG is losing buckets of money, and I think will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
The question will be, 'How long will they be able to fund that, and how long will investors let them continue to fund that?'" -
@WallStCynic
It's all about the mega caps this week, but GLL earnings szn about to explode🤯starting Monday at 7am. Pro subs we got you covered with some notes and data updates this week ahead of the prints
Let's see how it all shakes out
@HedgeyeSnakeye
Thanks Rob for filling and co-piloting the weekly show today. Went a little over on time but there was plenty to discuss.
Click link in bio for subscription options.
"Hedgeye Cares" was formed to help people in need inside our community. 100% of the funds we donate will end up with the charities we support.
Hedgeye will match the first $100,000 raised today dollar for dollar donated.
Learn more/donate here:
☀️
GLL Pro subs -- check those inboxes. Some key idea and ticker bias changes in the weekend roundup note... + some bonus content related to our $MGM & LV Strip deck from last wk.
"We’ve seen a few articles this morning suggesting that winning the Stanley Cup symbolizes the LV’s big “moment” as a hub for leisure and entertainment. We’d counter with the notion that this Stanley Cup win is merely a part of what’s to come.
It’s not just a singular
Lot of fresh content here for you weekend warriors... Sector Spotlight w/ the big dog
@HedgeyeSnakeye
is a must listen for those interested in GLL.
#ContentMachines
This was fun. We hit on n/t dynamics, catalysts, then took a stab at answering the big question. Is cruise finally a good business?
For those looking for some breadcrumbs - tune into The Call.
For those that want more detail - trial out our Pro product!
Game time!
@HedgeyeSnakeye
&
@HedgeyeGLL
Cruisers Update Call at 10am.
"Cruise stocks have come off their highs on the back of $NCLH 's whiff of a qtr & broader fears of macro... It looks like a buying opportunity."
Institutional investors email sales
@hedgeye
.com for access.
A big thank you to all of our attendees for joining us at our 2nd Annual Investing Conference "Hedgeye Live" in Greenwich, CT earlier this month. It was absolute fire and we can't wait for next year...
The amount of energy, actionable investing insight, networking,
$DKNG = classic RoC story as the company finds *some* religion on costs as rev growth maintains and mkt. share inflects higher. We’ve been negative here in the past but have stuck with the long call since late last year. More upside remains.
Thanks for the shout. The online gaming space has been a blast to cover these last few years - plenty to do long and short side. trade looking higher from here on $DKNG though
@HedgeyeGLL
@HedgeyeSnakeye
do really great work!
Awesome long call on $DKNG!
Stuck to their process, was data dependent and doubled down in November... with an eye on on today!
Stock up +90% since!
A real good listen here (I may have a bias) ...
@HedgeyeSnakeye
and the crew run through some of our Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure themes and some stock specific stuff. Give it a listen! It's FREE!
"Take Your $$ To The Casino" S3 E4 of Unscripted Equity Curiosity, a
@hedgeye
podcast also on $SPOT & $AAPL hosted by me,
@hedgeyechina
+
@hedgeyecomm
this week featuring Todd Jordan
@HedgeyeSnakeye
on Casinos, Hotel, OTA's and more.
Hotels - C-Corps and FS REITs - have teamed up through Covid and generated real solid productivity gains, but with wage inflation looking like this (+ other factors). Hard to imagine those gains hold
Let's go!! Big day of content tomorrow
@Hedgeye
followed by a monster rest of the week!
New ideas galore and earnings prep as the szn starts to pick up steam next week and the week after.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
and I are headed to 🇨🇦 tomorrow but we'll try to get on The Call and add some color for those new idea adjustments -- $MGM, $BYD, $PENN, $ABNB, and more.
Another big week
@Hedgeye
. Busy time for the GLL squad as well. Starts with our Cruise Industry deck tmrw... Critical time to offer up our perspective before earnings szn.
$RCL $CCL $NCLH
Phase 2 of the earnings szn gauntlet now in the past. I am going to work on providing more real time tweets (still new here). Another week of decent sized moves across the GLL space - as always...
Offsets / pushback to these narratives:
1) Greater % of bookings coming direct to OTA
2) Greater % of ad spend shifting to brand vs perf
3) Greater % of bookings shifting into Alt. Accomm. where Google is terrible
4) Not a new risk, well reflected in valuations / sentiment
1/ “Google has destroyed the barriers to entry for the OTA industry. More hotels are going direct and there are literally 100s of new regional OTAs that are creating their own mini-Bookings or Expedia, willing to take lower margins.
Sentiment and Street #'s starting to come around to the $MGM story. Glad we did more work on Vegas in Dec and early Jan to get ahead of this. More to come, we think. Still a Vegas story but other factors now contributing.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
@Hedgeye
We have looked at the '19 draft in Nashville as a comp, but LV will likely outperform.. Limited supply growth, better air lift, pent up leisure demand, etc. Lots of positive factors in LV's favor rn
#Macau
weekly numbers were brutal again. April pretty much punted given the lockdowns.
@HedgeyeSnakeye
and I broke down the data and backdrop in a note to clients this AM.
Discussed on The Call this AM. Important data that will move fwd earnings estimates. Devil is in the details on these pipeline metrics (Cc:
@HedgeyeSnakeye
)
$WH essentially laying out our short thesis on $CHH from earlier this year. Organic growth and prospects lacking
#BigTime
with this one...
Cc:
@HedgeyeSnakeye
$HLT reversal, even before the market. beat and raise but could the focus finally be switching to the unit growth issues? mgmt acknowledged some risk. more accute for $MAR and central to our neg thesis
The OSB / iCasino industry has mostly been a unit economics disaster for the last ~18mths, but with reaccelerating SS growth, better promo / marketing trends, etc, there's a real oppty for the narrative to shift to the positive.