The MD for Gaming, Lodging and Leisure and CFO at Hedgeye, TJ enjoys the analysis and pursuit of leisure. Previously a PM and Analyst at JAM, Cobalt & Ardsley.
$PENN starting the rebuilding process. the release of oct gaming revs from the states could help. last night, Iowa led off with a 27% increase vs 2019. we'll see over the next few weeks if other states can match that strong growth
In retrospect, when I called all 3 Phases of The Bear market of 2007-2009, I didn't have Twitter trolls and haters, yet
That's why I'm going to enjoy Phase III of this Bear Market all the more
i'm not a fan of
@BusinessInsider
for many reasons and journalstic integrity, or the lack thereof, is high on the list. a reputable journalistic outfit would have published the latest hit piece weeks ago. so un-WSJ to release on earnings day 2 quarters in a row.
#agenda
as painful it has been since turning positive on $PENN in May,
@stoolpresidente
definitely makes things very interesting. controversy=opporunity...sometimes
$EXPE that's more like it. like night and day from the Q2 conference call. the bear narratives of marketing inefficiency and lost market share look pretty short sighted now
the $PENN move today wasn't making sense, particularly since, based on Oct, Street Q4 estimates looked low. and then the
@BusinessInsider
piece on
@stoolpresidente
comes out...
Insinuating that we have some kind of love for
@stoolpresidente
that clouds objectivity is ludicrous. This firm was started on the concept of transparency & objectivity. We would sacrifice our foundation to be "fanboys"?
$PENN with the upside pre-announcement. we're in the middle of their new range, way above the Street. good timing for our new gaming presentation tomorrow $RRR $BYD $PENN
in a constant generational battle with my junior analyst - i have to zoom the models after he saves them. it was just 2 yrs ago that i didn't need readers...
just published our $PENN note. we take a look at what the brick & mortar casino business is worth on a stand alone basis. so in the incredibly unlikely scenario that SB/iG and Barstool Media is worthless
#Sandbagging
- to conceal or misrepresent one's true position, potential, or intent especially in order to gain an advantage - Merriam-Webster. $CCL guidance is ridiculously conservative...
decent bounce in GLL stocks after the thanksgiving massacre. if consumers look through
#Omicron
like they ultimately did
#DeltaVariant
, there's a lot of upside $BYD $RRR $EXPE $PENN $BKNG $WYNN $RHP
Hotel C-Corps breaking down. usually the worst performing GLL subsector in Quad 4. finally acting like it. multiple and catalysts suggest $MAR can go a lot lower...
$BYD straight up into the Q so "sell on the news" and
#COVID19
- i get it. but been in this biz for a long time (i'm old) and can't recall such poor treatment after such a bullet proof Q and conf call
$BYD a tough act to follow these days but $RRR is a (red) rock star. great Q2 with very good read through to the future. Street
#s
need to go way higher
God Bless America! $WYNN and $MGM blow out Q2 and discuss a mostly sustainble environment...in the USA. No help from
#Macau
where visibility is muddled, at best
finished our 80+ page slide$WYNN presentation. interestingly, institutional investor attendance was lower than usual. incoming from instituitons about
#Macau
also have been light the last few months. tells you a little about sentiment. could be bullish
and btw, we have no ties to portnoy. definitely respect for what he's built & the PENN/Barstool sportsbetting/media opportunity. i don't know the man but i do like certain things about him and dislike other things
a lot of new macro analysis to be included in the presentation. tying it back to
#macrothemes
from
@KeithMcCullough
. wealth effect could be different than other consumer sectors
#Macau
government releases public consultation results and opinions regarding concession renewal. Reads pretty good for the casino companies, way better than feared
The median price of a new home sold in the US is now down 18% from its peak in October 2022. After the housing bubble in the 2000s the median new home price fell 22% nationally.
@TechQn
@Hedgeye
doesn't make up for $PENN today, that's for sure, but at least i no longer feel the need to get blindly drunk tonight. maybe just moderately drunk...
$NCLH action is wild. our least favorite cruise stock but investors may be too short sighted. '24 should be huge for the industry. still prefer $CCL and to a lesser extent, $RCL
"One takeaway is that $PENN has a plan for the recovery, and our guess is that it’s likely a plan that’s very adaptable to the uncertainty and it’s likely a better plan than the competition."
via
@HedgeyeSnakeye
@Hedgeye
@HedgeyeIndstrls
@HedgeyeGLL
Leisure travel is accelerating rapidly and will with or without the mask mandate. but it will be a catalyst when it happens. $EXPE $VAC
i'd love some feedback on what people now think of the
@stoolpresidente
situation - as unbiased as you can be. he's like
@HowardStern
used to be before he got all mainstream and hollywood - you either love him or hate him. so pls don't bring your previous views into it. thanks
just published a note on the SF hotel mkt "Two Tales of One City". $PEB very exposed and has 1 opinion while $PK has announced they are walking away from 2 SF properties and seem more candid
BREAKING:
#SanFrancisco
The Federal Building is telling Nancy Pelosi and other workers to work from home because coming into the San Francisco federal office is to dangerous. I took a walk outside the San Francisco Federal Building. I SAW 49 PEOPLE SMOKING AND INJECTING FENTANYL
the
#Macau
set up is very interesting. $WYNN $LVS underperforming since vaccine trade. investors frustrated with timing of visa relaxation. low valuations