Ed Arnold @EdArnold_RUSI Twitter profile

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

🇫🇮 has more armour, arty, ammo than 🇬🇧, soon possibly more F-35. Can mobilise more reserves at greater readiness, resilience baked into society and geopolitical positioning to Kola and RF nuclear forces. More than moral support

Sky News

@SkyNews

2 years

Finland will bring "moral support" to NATO but will need "encouraging" to invest in it's own armed forces says retired senior British Army officer, Lord Richard Dannatt. #KayBurley 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

If a 🇷🇺 offensive succeeds, or a 🇺🇦 offensive fails, it will be very difficult for Berlin to deflect the view, from allies and partners, that it was 🇩🇪 fault. This indecision will have impact on German reputation and trust for decades

Marcel H. Van Herpen

@MarcelHVanHerpe

2 years

We are on the eve of the most important Russian attack since 24 February and Germany continues to block the delivery of Leopards 2? Incredible!

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Our new interactive map of 🇬🇧 defence and security relationships is now live on the website. Head over and take a look

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Quite an astonishing statement from Macron if true. Considering the difficulties 🇫🇷 had in the Sahel with Wagner presence, it means 🇫🇷 intelligence is really poor atm. 🇲🇱 🇺🇦 blindspot. Also shows what a loss the 🇬🇧 is to EU intelligence quality. Real limfac for strat autonomy

Sławomir Dębski

@SlawomirDebski

2 years

President Macron at #MSC23 "A year ago I spoke to Putin and he assured me that 🇷🇺had nothing to do with the Wagner Group - purely business project. I accepted that. Today we see that the Wagner Group is involved in war 🇷🇺against Ukraine. It means Russia is simply a mafia state."

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

What's the point in a handful? All or nothing

UK considers supplying handful of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine

Sources say Kyiv hopes move may encourage Berlin to supply Leopard 2s as it seeks 300 tanks in war against Russia

www.theguardian.com

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Like maps? My programme will soon release an interactive map of UK defence and security relationships in Europe. Watch this space...

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

🇳🇱 following 🇩🇰 lead on emptying the sheds in support of Ukraine. While the focus is usually on the big states, these smaller states, with others, are far more serious on European security than most

Jimmy Rushton

@JimmySecUK

1 year

President Zelensky confirms the Netherlands will send 42 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - the entire Dutch inventory - after pilots and engineers have been trained. 🇳🇱🤝🇺🇦

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Why do some people get so hung up on 'defensive equipment'? All military hardware and software has offensive and defensive qualities to some degree. Offensive spirit is a principle of defence. Are we backing 🇺🇦 or not?

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

What Ukraine is doing right now is unbelievably impressive. The Kharkiv operation was always attractive but I didn't think they would do it at the same time as Kherson. Counteroffensives are about mindset foremost. Let's give them the capabilities

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

@ThreshedThought Ukrainian moral component has been decisive in 1st 2 weeks. Tac and operational successes, and Zs leadership, has whipped up western support and guaranteed military and economic aid for years. Could have been v different had they collapsed in 3 days as 🇷🇺 hoped

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Great announcement and perfect time. Picked up in Sun new cycle and will build pressure to 20th Defence Contact Grp. If 🇩🇪 doesn't free the Leopards on Friday then its reputation in Europe, NATO, and EU is toast. Look out for 🇺🇸 statements of support

Christopher Miller

@ChristopherJM

2 years

Statement out now from PM @RishiSunak ’s office: The UK sending a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine “in the coming weeks” and ~ 30 AS90s, large, self-propelled guns, will follow. UK will begin training the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use them in coming days. via @FT

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Really odd from the ISC report. I'm not sure the 2 correlate. Various intelligence directors in the US are far more public figures and it doesn't necessarily damage covert capability. Agencies in democracies need to be as transparent as possible

Spy chiefs warned about tweets and TV appearances

The head of MI6 tweets far more than any other head past or present, MPs say.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

NATO should make it mandatory that all ministers from member countries with a def/sy portfolio go to NDC in Rome on taking office and get taught what the Alliance is, what it does, and what it doesn't do. Inc a deep dive on Art5. This has to stop

Liz Truss calls for ‘economic NATO’ to stand up to China

Former UK prime minister to urge stronger Taiwan ties as counter to Beijing.

www.politico.eu

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Absolute nonsense. There is nothing the UK has done since Feb that it couldn't have done had it been an EU member. In fact, the 🇬🇧 would likely have made the EU response quicker and better. 🇬🇧 independent sanctions policy no way near as effective as EUs

GB News

@GBNEWS

2 years

'Had we been a member the European Union in February...we would not have been able to set a framework to allow Ukraine to be so successful. That would've been one of the biggest defeats for the Western world in modern history.' Mark is joined by Jacob Rees-Mogg on Mark Meets.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

The curse of the management consultants and lean six sigma Black belts, with absolutely no domain experience whatsoever, strike again

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

2 years

Man the F-35's supply chain arrangement just got battered at Sea-Air-Space. The whole just in time concept is not a feature, it's a bug. They need parts on shelves, especially if the F-35 is used for its intended purpose — combat against a major foe. The 7-11 stocking model is a

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

7 months

Errr Who wrote the 2010 SDSR? Who didn't fund the 2015 SDSR? Who made Lebvedev a peer against advice from the security services? Who has increased defence spending the least out of all 32 NATO members since 2014? Ajax? Morpheus? Etc...

Conservatives

@Conservatives

7 months

Labour wants you to forget it, but Sir Keir Starmer spent years trying to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister. Corbyn's worldview: ❌ NATO ❌ Nuclear deterrent ✅ Hamas & Hezbollah You can't trust Labour with our national security.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

So send Ajax to Ukraine, get Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China to fix the vibration and noise issues, then get the spec back with a cheeky bit of SIGINT, maybe a bit of old school HUMINT. DCP refresh sorted.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

2 years

"Russia has been capturing some of the US & NATO-provided weapons and equipment left on the battlefield in Ukraine & sending them to Iran, where the US believes Tehran will try to reverse-engineer the systems, four sources familiar w/ the matter told CNN"

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

HMG needs to ratify Finland and Swedens accession to NATO tomorrow morning before it implodes and delays

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

This is an important step for private investment in Ukraine, esp risk appetite of countries to deploy before the shooting stops. Governments must back with and make it clear to Russia that sites are off limits and create 'safe havens' around them

Ukraine Battle Map

@ukraine_map

1 year

The Rheinmetall 🇩🇪 production plant being opened in Ukraine 🇺🇦 will be protected by Rheinmetall's own air defense systems, said the company’s CEO Armin Papperger (BILD)

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

The No10 comms grid czar must be livid. 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 Summit, 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 AUKUS summit, IR Refresh and budget crammed into 6 days and all the news is about the BBC. Also overshadowing the HMG 'stop the boats' messaging

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Better with a 🇺🇦 volunteer than taking up room in the basement. Some of it did me well through 🇦🇫. Unfortunately time for it to be used again

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

A bit cheeky. 🇫🇷 are as hollowed out for warfighting as 🇬🇧 🇩🇪after Mali and OP Sentinelle overstretch. NATO SG made it clear that support to 🇺🇦pri over NDPP. However, 🇬🇧 needs to up spending, commit, and stop the analysis paralysis

France 'concerned' about state of Britain's Armed Forces

Sources claim Nato is worried about UK capability amid wrangles over funding and depleted reserves from donations to Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

One of the more cynical moves of the Kremlin in the war. Redeploy the 64th to an area they would likely be wiped out to make the legal arm of the justice process more difficult and protect the Kremlin

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |

@ChuckPfarrer

2 years

KARMA: Lt Colonel Omurbekov Azatbek Asanbekovich was the commanding officer of the 64th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade-- the unit that massacred the citizens of Bucha. Reports indicate that the 64th has been wiped out in fighting on the Izium salient.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Good news for 🇺🇦. 🇩🇪Gov needs to review its decision making processes quickly. Multiple u-turns are burning political capital and abdicating European leadership unnecessary. The Zeitenwende is cultural not procedural!

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

9 months

This isn't even relevant. You can't use litigation as a bulwark against Trump - he doesn't play by those rules. Read, really read, ArtV. If Russia attacks Estonia, the US could send a single Abrams and live up to the letter, not spirit, of Art 5.

Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

9 months

As a reminder - because of the special law passed by the US Congress last December, President Trump, if elected in November 2024, cannot withdraw from NATO without a Senate's consent. In the Senate, there is a strong and stable majority in favor of staying in NATO.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Putin seeking theatrical inspiration from a NATO briefing in Thunderball (1965)!!!

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Stage 4

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Not just the weapons. UK platoon level training under Op Orbital since 2016 has made a real difference. For the 🇬🇧 it is again sadly the Home Office behind the MoD and FCDO on another crisis and woefully unprepared for migration support. Not all that integrated when it matters

Danielle Sheridan

@SheridanDani

3 years

Ben Wallace gives press conf with Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov. Reznikov says Britain was 1st to provide them with “serious weapons that have increased our defence capabilities”. “Your role is special,” he says.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

9 months

My latest for @RUSI_org responding to CGS, NATO CMC and other comments over the last month. Societies must be prepared for the impacts on war and its never too early to start preparing. We talk a good game on Resilience, less evidence that we are doing anywhere near enough

RUSI

@RUSI_org

9 months

'The real issue is not about #conscription [...] It is about having an honest discussion with the public on the likely significant impacts that a war would have on the UK’s way of life' writes @EdArnold_RUSI in the latest #RUSICommentary .

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Early morning frost at Wilton Park to discuss SDSR methodologies and UK national security machinery

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

@RALee85 Agree. Russia has put alot of effort into Kyiv and got nowhere. Even if Russia hadn't moved on Kyiv, it still would have fixed Ukrainian forces there, they couldn't risk leaving it lightly defended given the proximity to the border

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

The second death of European Strategic Autonomy. First was Leopards which held up the Ukrainian offensive by c.4 months. Exactly the same situation. I'm not sure Berlin realises the damage its doing to Alliance cohesion

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

1 year

“The [German] Taurus is being held up because of the ATACMS. We have a situation very similar to tanks, all this back and forth,” said Mr Zagorodnyuk. “We will have to see what happens.”

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Yes. Scholtz killed it today with his demand for US to send Abrahams to release the Leopards.

Carnegie Europe

@Carnegie_Europe

2 years

🇪🇺 | Is European Strategic Autonomy Over? Russia's war in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's dependence on the US for #security . While strategic autonomy may be out of reach, the EU must work to strengthen the European pillar of NATO. 16 experts comment:

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Parochial stories like this is why I don't really believe in jointery/integration/CA/fusion doctrine [insert next iteration of the same concept here]. All unravels pretty quickly when there is funding to seek or blame to apportion (eg Kabul)

Army concerned RAF and Navy are not supporting Ukraine enough

It is felt among senior defence sources that the other forces within the British Military should help to ‘shoulder the burden’

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

What exactly is the UK losing by not having an institutional security relationship with the EU? Why would the UK want one now? Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’ - via @FT

Macron floats EU security pact with Russia, risking western split over Ukraine

Potential break comes as US urges ‘unity’ among Nato and European allies in confronting Moscow aggression

www.ft.com

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

@alexstubb @bctallis It needs to be sustained. Not just for a couple of years, but until Putin goes and his group are marginalised. I hope there is the sustained political will

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Foolish and will be gladly exploited. Whitehall needs to understand consultants more and stop using them as spare capacity, looking to cut civil servants but paying 💸 for 21yr olds with Prince2. Contributes to lack of strategy on Whitehall and total waste

Ministers quietly scrap limits on Whitehall spending on consultants

Exclusive: Labour calls cancelling of financial limits ‘indefensible’ in cost of living crisis

www.theguardian.com

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

My latest for Sky news. Ukrainian forces under real pressure. They need lots more heavy weapons to the East to be able to do operational level counteroffensives

Sky News

@SkyNews

2 years

'There is a lot of pressure on Ukraine'. Research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, Ed Arnold, says the Russians are making a "steady advancement" in eastern Ukraine, and are using artillery and rockets to advance its forces. Live updates 👉

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Again really clear messaging. PM Kallas is playing a blinder in Europe. Alongside Sec Blinken and DS Wallace they have made a real diplomatic influence

Marten Kokk

@martenkokk

3 years

Estonian PM 🇪🇪 Kaja Kallas this evening in #Berlin 🇩🇪: "The price of stopping a dictator always goes up with every delay and every hesitation. Meeting evil halfway is still a victory for evil." #StandWithUkraine #ArmUkraineNow

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Early morning with @BBCBreakfast Will bookend it with @DeutscheWelle tonight for the German audience. Complements the 🇬🇧 🇩🇪 defence and security cooperation policy paper I am currently writing with @FES_GB

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

While it is true that warfighting has been neglected, in c.2015 then CGS admitted as much to JCNSS and started to orientate to a sovereign warfighting div (JF2025) In 8 years it seems like we have not really shifted, or very very slowly

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

"Next generation" is not how to describe CH2

POLITICOEurope

@POLITICOEurope

2 years

The UK has agreed to send next-generation tanks to Ukraine, together with additional artillery systems.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Didn't know the UK had 20 operational AS90s... Also, total 🇬🇧 ammo stocks are c.30 days 'normal' rate, so 30days - 45k shells is?...

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Ppl said this about Dvornikov in May and he was useless because his C2 and troops were useless. 🇷🇺 military problems are so systemic that it really doesn't matter who is in command, esp if Putin is taking mil decisions which is obviously terrible as has been seen already

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

2 years

#Putin ’s put Gen. Sergey Surovikin in command of the whole #Ukraine campaign — he’s a brutal, calculated leader. It was Surovikin who coordinated the unilateral violation of 3/4 of #Syria ’s “de-escalation zones,” methodically crippling the opposition & sealing #Assad ’s survival.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

All the strategy documents from 2015 ish outline a more dangerous and volatile world but not much actually happened to help us prepare. This is now routine. The only mitigation is a superior defence industrial base and stockpiling

Elbridge Colby

@ElbridgeColby

1 year

We ***must*** move beyond rhetoric and immediately revamp our defense industrial base. We need to be able to produce large numbers of weapons and platforms quickly - not only for ourselves but for our allies. The world is getting much more dangerous. We have no time to waste.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

@EHunterChristie I think the handful option would be to put pressure on 🇩🇪, but only risks their contribution being in kind. 🇬🇧 has an opportunity to lead, make a read diff by sending all and warrior. Save the upgrade and maintenance cost and rethink armour approach based on real requirements

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Hello Helsinki

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

UK Defence and Security Relationships Across Europe

Mapping the evolving UK defence and security policy relationships with allies and partners across Europe

rusi.org

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

This is nonsense. Totally different context and requirements. Also "The army teaches us to analyse our mistakes, and once understood, analyse them again for lessons to be learned" is not my lived experience

Opinion: I was an army captain. Here’s what Liz Truss got wrong about leadership

The former PM gave the impression of being a new lieutenant who failed to create the right environment around her

www.independent.co.uk

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

As a teaser, this is what it will look like...

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

At this point the Europeans who want to should send the Leopards and force 🇩🇪 hand

Patrick Fox

@RealCynicalFox

2 years

Poland will be making a public announcement this afternoon after consulting with the Baltic nations + the UK. Given this being announced by Polish MoD, I suspect Warsaw may be weighing decisions on Ukrainian aid.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

All these comment pieces on the 🇬🇧 being 'hollowed out' for warfighting solely focus on the financial under investment. What isn't raised is 🇬🇧 enthusiasm for exped ops. Far more impactful structurally and culturally 1/

Third-rate Britain is disarming itself into irrelevance

There is little point in the UK rallying support for Kyiv, if we lack the military muscle to follow through

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Pleased to provide evidence to @CommonsDefence on 🇺🇦 , European Security and 🇬🇧 this morning with Andriy Zagorodnyuk. You can watch it here

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

8 months

If President Biden wins, the imperative for Europe to do more for its own defence is still there. Therefore we should just get on with it!

RUSI

@RUSI_org

8 months

'The uncomfortable truth is that Trump has a point – Europe has taken US protection for granted for over 30 years. Now, there are no wake-up calls left, and very limited options for defending Europe without American support' writes @EdArnold_RUSI .

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Opportunity on BBC this lunchtime to restate the context of the scale of this operation and that the Russian Defence Ministry is a very poor source of information! @HamishDBG

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

My take on the Defence Command Paper 23. First with 2 caveats. 1 I didn't think the whole 'refresh' approach was necessary- too much thinking, not enough doing. 2 I'm cynical about the whole review process

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

2 points. 1-why did Berlin put themselves through all the issues over the weekend to now change? Burns political capital and really poor comms. 2-why did the coalition leave it so late to be just in time for 🇺🇦? This could have been done months ago

(S+) Krieg in der Ukraine: Deutschland schickt Leopard-Panzer

Nach monatelanger Debatte hat sich Kanzler Scholz durchgerungen, Kampfpanzer an die Ukraine zu liefern. Auch die Verbündeten wollen offenbar mitziehen. Aus den USA könnten Abrams-Panzer kommen.

www.spiegel.de

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

🇬🇧 troops training 🇺🇦 in 'battle skills'? Should it not be the other way round?? When did regular UK troops last take out a tank in anger?

Boris Johnson promises Ukraine UK-led troop training scheme on Kyiv visit

PM announces programme including battle skills and counter-explosive tactics that will take place outside Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

The German NNS didn't mention the UK once, but they did translate it for us (UK English, not US!). That's real love right there...

Ulrike Franke

@RikeFranke

1 year

Oh, oh, I forgot something I totally wanted to add! I don’t understand why there is only an English translation and a French summary. Seriously. This isn’t nitpicking - wouldn’t it have been a great message had they published it in all EU and NATO member languages?

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Haha. What an absolute plum. If I may be frank, your expertise (whatever it is) is not required

Godfrey Bloom

@goddersbloom

2 years

As an expert in geo political & military strategy I feel obliged to point out to Finland their natural ally is Russia not America But to be frank no expertise is required, just common sense & a map

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

The Integrated Review doesn't need touching. More valuable to review the finances and the capabilities underpinning the Defence Command Paper. Urgency is needed as the military might be asked to fight sooner than thought

RUSI

@RUSI_org

2 years

'The Russian reinvasion of Ukraine is an inflection point for European and global security, but it is one that is well within the policy parameters of the Integrated Review' writes @EdArnold_RUSI in the latest #RUSICommentary .

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

8 months

Let's not quibble over 23-24 numbers and technicalities. UK is still lowest %real terms increase since 2014 of all NATO. Yes from a higher baseline, but still shows insufficient response to post Crimea security situation and ambition to lead

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧

@DefenceHQ

8 months

The Defence Budget has not been cut. It is growing in real terms, with the core and total MOD budget set to be higher this year than last. Read a full breakdown👇of why the budget red book appears to show a dip, but cannot tell the full story: 📊 Two charts below compare RDEL

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Pretty clear direction from the SG. Time for 🇬🇧 to send Challengers, as many as mechanically possible. If MBTs are going to be used by 🇺🇦 for a March offensive, the decision point is now.

Matthias Eichenlaub

@MattEichenlaub

2 years

"I've told @NATO Allies that if they have to choose between meeting all the NATO guidelines on stocks and capabilities or to support Ukraine, it's more important to support Ukraine." #NATO SecGen Stoltenberg today, alongside @vonderleyen & @eucopresident

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

@Mark1_1984 What would I do without you Mark!

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

New 🇬🇧 National Risk Register just dropped. Big improvement and good on explaining the methodology. But...is it too big and unwieldy to actually be effective? Also not many concrete mitigation measures for those risks - that's what gets you resilience, not a big impressive list

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

All done. Time for some whisky

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Is it? How is it measured? Is that what the National Security Risk Assessment says? Did the Home Sec read the IR/IIR? Not very 'integrated' is it, if each minister can say what they like about their own security area?

Iranian state ‘now biggest threat to UK’

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the biggest threat to Britain’s national security, the home secretary believes, amid fresh evidence of its reach int

www.thetimes.com

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

@ForcesReviewUK It's not. It's degrading the enemy. They will likely only be used in anger against Russia in the next decade. They would better defend Estonia by being used in 🇺🇦 now

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Not an exercise. It's a rehearsal. Should also include a full rehearsal of the transatlantic reinforcement plan. Nato to launch biggest military exercise since cold war - via @FT

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Ukraine in NATO would do the opposite as it would require Russian forces to spread their forces out and therefore less troop concentrations near the Baltics, like what's happened with Finland

Kristi Raik

@KristiRaik

1 year

I’m hearing the argument from the US and Germany that #Ukraine ’s #NATO membership might weaken NATO’s deterrence for the current eastern flank countries – so, I’m told, think twice if you want Ukraine in NATO. Some thoughts on this👇

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Yup. Ukraine's targeting cycle is in full swing but they need additional range, precision and stocks. This would be the best enabler to offensive ops yet they are being withheld

Jimmy Rushton

@JimmySecUK

1 year

This is absolutely correct; every day the west delays in sending additional capability to Ukraine - such as ATACMS - the more Ukrainian lives are needlessly lost, and the longer the war will last.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Remarkable synergy between the UK political parties - Starmer calling for legislation to be brought forward as Labour will support. Delightful after the bipartisanship of the last 5 years

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Finally got to use the map. 🇺🇦 going after 🇷🇺 lines of communication is the high risk, high payoff option

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

8 months

At RUSI we take our Associates requests extremely seriously! @HeleneBismarck @JEyal_RUSI

Helene von Bismarck

@HeleneBismarck

8 months

10 days ago I asked whether somebody could tell me what Trump 2.0 would mean for UK foreign and security policy. Now @EdArnold_RUSI has obligingly written a paper about it.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

I've seen lots of clips with 🇷🇺 operating bolt action rifles with iron sights. Absolutely nuts and reminds me of reading Orwells Homage to Catalonia. If this is what they resort to now, what are they giving the 300k? Bow and arrows?

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

@bosco_irl Definitely. Even if they do end up sending Leopards the damage has already been done

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Long day and I read it on a plane but here's my hot take on the DEU. Overall disappointing and perplexing that it was delayed TWICE when there is little contentious or new 1/

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

As does the length of a 'refresh' of 97 pages, when the original was 76 (IR2021 = 114, IRR2023 = 63). I worry that the 🇬🇧 has analysis paralysis - taking comfort in the process as activity, rather than the output and outcome

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

@haynesdeborah @BritishArmy Same. My interpreter, wife and 4 children are stuck after 3 days at HKIA

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Agreed. I'm not sure Scholtz has realised the longterm impact on German defence industry (economy) who will be getting wobbly. Who would go into collaborative projects with 🇩🇪 now? How does this impact EDA and PESCO? Even if he relents tomorrow, damage is done

Patrick Fox

@RealCynicalFox

2 years

And if the Germans don’t like it, Leopard 2 users should begin looking to replace those vehicles from other MBT manufacturers. Those competing firms should likewise be pitching their products as Leopard 2 replacements.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

@HeleneBismarck Its not that the UK hasn't invested enough in the Army. Its that the army has squandered the money through poor management, whereas the RN have been better at spending it with a much clearer view on purpose (RAF too with purpose)

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

All of this but the real long term effect will be suicide rates (4xKIA for 🇺🇸 in 20yrs of GWOT-30k (22k combat vets)) where 🇷🇺 is 3rd highest on alcohol related deaths in World with v poor veteran provision. What tour length and cycles can be sustained?

Dara Massicot

@MassDara

2 years

The long-term damage to the Russian army, marines, VDV from this war cannot be overstated. It goes beyond the numbers of men killed and equipment destroyed. This will also be a story of a military generation that is damaged or gone, and who remains. /1

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

@ColbyBadhwar NATO SG said that members can miss NDPP commitments if in support of Ukraine

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Rare morning when I am up before both kids today to go into Sky to discuss the Kherson offensive and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

There are no offensive or defensive weapons. They have offensive and defensive qualities. Even helmets and body armour can be offensive if they increase the survivability of assaulting troops. I'd argue (after 2 beers) a sleeping bag can have offensive qualities

Hans Tino Hansen

@HthHans

2 years

Please stop this nonsense about “offensive” weapons in relation to Ukraine. Ukraine should have all the weapon systems, training, spare parts, financial support, ammunition and intelligence necessary to kick out Russia from Ukraine and to ensure they never return.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

7 months

@RUSI_org European Security Advisory Group on tour @delphi_forum with @AnnwieAnna @LungescuOana @PeterJones_UK @JEyal_RUSI @DLidington

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

Great to be in Rome at @NDC_Research and special thanks to @thierrytardy for a great conference #FutureLeadersNDC

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

@james_rogers Yes. All components - physical, conceptual and esp moral. Also overestimated 🇺🇦 ability. After 14 years of modernisation they have performed poorly. Plus they won't have the money to further the modernisation and rearm, while europe spends on newer capabilities

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Destroying the Kersh bridge is a key part of isolating RUS forces and liberating the vital ground of Crimea which is the political aim and will end the war soonest. Taurus can help enable this through range and the warhead.

Jessica Berlin

@berlin_bridge

1 year

What #Scholz says: “If we send #Taurus to #Ukraine they could destroy Kerch Bridge & that’d escalate the war. Escalation is bad.” What he means: “Taurus would help 🇺🇦 win the war faster & that’s not my goal. Victory is bad.” What Putin hears: “Go ahead Vlad. I’ll buy you time.”

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

3 years

While great, this delay is unacceptable if you end up changing your mind anyway. 🇺🇦 could have been using the Estonian howitzer already. 🇺🇦 is showing it can use this equip for great effect. Send more now and don't forget the ammo

POLITICOEurope

@POLITICOEurope

3 years

UPDATED: Major turnaround in Germany's military policy, as Berlin authorizes the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers. Until today, Germany did not permit lethal weapons that it controlled to be transferred to conflict zones.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

View from the office today. Might crack out my winter mountaineering thermals

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Christmas tradition. Stagnight

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

@KarlErikHofseth Yes. But 🇬🇧 sending 10 isn't going to suddenly make 🇩🇪 send 100 or allow Spain to send 150 or so of theirs. UK sending EVERYTHING is a strong signal to get it moving and will speed it up. Unless decision is this week, tank bgdes won't be ready for spring offensive

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

It would be very interesting to know how many of the 150k are still serving. Many of the hindsight 'benefits' was to develop a more operational/combat experienced military. Only counts if they are still there, not to mention the bad habits that Afghan ops instilled

Wavell Room

@wavellroom

2 years

NEW: 150k British military personnel served in Afghanistan, with 457 losing their lives. Operations cost over £27bn between 2001 and 2021. The report highlights that there must be an open, honest and detailed review of the UK’s involvement in the country

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

Or any 12 Yr old gamer in the world... Or fighters from Syria where this TTP was developed before Russia's war on Ukraine... Stay in lane people

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

1 year

Russia is clearly behind this. No ally of HAMAS except of Russia has experience of using bomb-dropping drones against modern battle tanks. Only Russia could train HAMAS in this:

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

💥 that's pretty significant. Smaller European nations stepping up support. Everyone still looking at 🇩🇪

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦

@bayraktar_1love

2 years

Denmark sends all of its 19 French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine 🇩🇰🤝🇺🇦

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Huge gamble and risks burning some of the European, and US, goodwill and strengthening of relations over Ukraine. Too much UK thinking towards Europe atm is zero-sum, trying too hard to press for adv when a strategy of consolidation more appropriate

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Nothing like basing your foreign policy on destroying solidarity with long standing allies

Hugo Gye

@HugoGye

2 years

Green party co-leader Adrian Ramsay confirms that the party would like the UK to leave Nato, but not until the Ukraine war is over. @RidgeOnSunday

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

2 years

Can you imagine how the meeting with the head of Bidens security detail went? 'The President wants to go to Kyiv. Can you do a risk assessment please?'

Steven Beschloss

@StevenBeschloss

2 years

This is how to spend Presidents Day.

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Ed Arnold

@EdArnold_RUSI

1 year

How's that different to 2008?

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

1 year

Ben Wallace asked about conditions for Ukraine on Nato. “What people missed about yesterday as communique is that there is now complete consensus that Ukraine will join NATO … culturally that is accepted. When that happens is conditions based.” It’s about “when and not if.”

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