Craig Setzer, CCM @CraigSetzer Twitter profile

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

4 months

Hope the taped up airplane window in my row is not integral to the operation of this ⁦ @AmericanAir ⁩ flight back to Miami

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

I often say, hurricane events have 3 phases people go through. 1. Anxiety phase - the prep days leading up to a storm 2. Terrifying phase - going through the storm 3. Indescribable phase - the weeks, months, years of recovery. Many lives have been changed forever.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Hurricane Lee is about 600 miles east of the northeast Caribbean islands. It's way out in the Atlantic, and will be slowing down in the coming days, so this is going to be a long period in what I call the "anxiety phase". So, everyone please pace yourselves mentally &

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

9 months

Tornado just east of downtown Ft Lauderdale this afternoon. Was watching the signature on the radar and it looked like it would be close. Boy was it. From what I could tell, ⁦ @NWSMiami ⁩ issued the warning just in time.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

11 months

Unfathomable damage in Acapulco as what appears to be contents of entire floors blown out of high rise buildings from cat 5 Otis. Winds always higher in skyscrapers so it’s possible the damage factor was 1000 times higher than what would occur from 75mph cat 1.

Pedro Márquez

@PedroMrquez_

11 months

La zona hotelera de #Acapulco quedó totalmente debastada por el paso el Huracán Otis. Así se ve desde el aire.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

Today is my last day at CBS4 Miami, & it's been a great 22 years. I've decided it's time for a change. Like many of you, I have worked non-stop since basically high school. What's next? I'm going to take a little break, maybe do some fishing, but I'm not leaving South Florida.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

@ChefGruel I made 300 sandwiches, but have a million people in my restaurant, that means I can give every person one sandwich.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Complicated forecasts involving big risks such as strong hurricanes require oversized areas of preparation. Here's why this forecast is complex. Idalia will be guided north for a day or so thanks to high pressure building in from the east. A jet stream dip will try to turn the

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

11 months

Yikes! Woke up to what I thought was lightning, but was power flashes around Ft Lauderdale. Every meteorologist awake (3:15AM) and much of South Florida right now with the wind howling.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

In a bit of meteorological curiosity, big Hurricane Franklin moving northeast in the Atlantic, and small newly formed Tropical Storm Jose are about to meet. In what is similar to atmospheric Pac-Man, Franklin will gobble up (absorb) Jose in a few days.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

The models remain very close with potential threats to the northeast Caribbean, the Bahamas, and the US, but it really is too early to tell if a potential threat will turn into an impactful reality. Below are not models, but past major hurricane tracks (cat 3+) since 1855. We

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 months

Sometimes I question the lack of messaging presented in the 7 day Tropical Weather Outlook. In the first place, it looks like an advisory cone, so many immediately think it is where a storm will track. Second, it is for development potential over a long time frame, seven days.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

In the next few days, Hurricane Lee will likely become a category 5 storm & achieve this at a remarkable rate of intensification. And apart from what is really an amazing meteorological event, there will be no direct land impacts other than large swell on Atlantic facing shores

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

After quickly reaching category 5 intensity 36 hours ago, Hurricane Lee has been struggling against wind shear. As noted by NHC (Berg, Bucci), the Euro suggests the wind shear will persist and "may" keep Lee from intensifying back to cat 4 or 5. This type of El Niño shear was

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

@CodeMonkeyZ

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Interesting trend in models Sun AM, the idea of a strong system turning north in the open Atlantic is losing favor to a weaker system continuing west into the Carib. This more west trend increases odds some folks (land) are going to have to deal with it. The timeline now for

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

This is a *trend* graphic. It shows the last 4 GFS runs (every 6 hours) ending with the latest run. This trend is NOT our friend. GFS doing 2 things. Each run moving tropical system closer to Leeward Islands. And now it's advertising two named systems. We'll focus on the first

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

4 years

Wow, Zeta bringing with it FIFTY FOOT waves just south of Louisiana now as the fast moving hurricane has likely created a "trapped fetch" where waves moving with storm and growing huge.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Based on the 5PM Sunday NHC forecast advisory, here is the prep timeline for Idalia. Because the storm is expected to accelerate in the eastern Gulf, the times of arrival have moved up a bit for Tampa Bay. Plan to have outdoor activities/preps wrapped up by the time tropical

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

The main question with the strong wave in the far east Atlantic is, will it have opportunities to go north (recurve) before it gets too far west & close to land? Right now, the pattern somewhat favors a recurve, but this wave is starting so far south, it may not "sense"

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 months

Before a tropical system has developed, there is a lot of model uncertainty. Therefore, we use a range of possibilities to understand a threat, such as model ensembles or multimodel images. We do not use deterministic model runs for undeveloped tropical systems many days out. So,

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

I'm usually a big fan of model run to run consistency. In this case, not so much...

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

And we've reached the part where everything unfolds now and you just watch it, hoping people in its path prepared or evacuated. From a meteorological point of view it's fascinating to watch, from a societal/human point of view its horrifying. Those who have experienced the eye

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

We are now less than five days from a potential hurricane event and can start discussing possible details/outcomes. While Hurricane Lee, which is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast, may be seen as good news because the center will be over much cooler water &

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

A few folks mentioning "Irma" as a similar storm situation. Maybe for intensity, but not for track. Below left are the four primary models (run Sept 5, 2017) that we used in 2017, and all were pointing to a Florida hurricane event. In fact, the signal was so strong that I put up

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

18 months after leaving TV I’ve found a new home as Chief Meteorologist for ⁦ @NewsfromRCgroup ⁩ It’s a dream job utilizing my tropical & marine meteorology experience and allowing me to explore/advance operational maritime science in a way I couldn’t before.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

One of the ways we track potential tropical development is with a model's "precipitable water" depiction. Tropical features show up visually & can be easily followed. Thu AM Euro shows a strong wave moving across Trop Atlantic next 10 days with some development indicated. We'll

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

No US issues for 10 days but I guess we're going to have to start talking about the next Cabo Verde wave set to roll across the deep Tropical Atlantic. This next system will need to be watched. The models are in agreement forecasting development/intensification regardless of

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 month

We are entering the beginning of peak hurricane season lasting through mid-October. And while much of the Atlantic remains warm with above average sea surface temperatures, it also remains mostly quiet. It appears one reason is because the African Easterly Waves (tropical

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Based on the 5AM Monday NHC forecast advisory, here is the prep timeline for Idalia. Plan to have outdoor activities/preps wrapped up before tropical storm force winds arrive. Any slight shifts in the track to the east/right will bring hurricane conditions to the west coast

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

During hurricane season we never want to wake up to any model surprises, and thankfully this morning, we haven't. The Euro (shown below) & GFS ensembles are in fairly good agreement on a consistent west northwest motion for the next 7 days. We'll keep our eyes on it, but so far,

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

While you'll often hear me rant about what a bad messaging tool the cone is when used within 3 days of landfall, when a storm is far away, it is effective for helping to establish our timeline. We do our preps based on timelines, not distance from a storm. As of Thursday,

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

This Wednesday morning we're looking for any trends in the last several model runs (GFS). Fortunately, there aren't any significant ones, the models are pretty dialed in on the west northwest motion through the weekend. After that, our first real area of uncertainty occurs at a

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

We are just about to the point where we can "nowcast" Ian. We know exactly where the center is via radar. Of note, the center is not moving due north, but slightly east of due north. If this trend continues it will imply more impacts on Fla SW coast (Naples, Ft Myers, Sarasota).

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Strong tropical wave showing up in most reliable models now coming across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. While it is not expected to become anything intense, it is a worrisome reminder this season looks primed for a lot of activity.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

A good example of high certainty and high uncertainty in ensemble solutions this morning. We are confident, based on the models, the wave center point crossing the Gulf will go ashore near TX/MX border. On the other hand, fairly low confidence where exactly Franklin will turn to

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

The "Cone" (white outline), when used within three days of impacts actually becomes an impediment to messaging. Within 24 hours of landfall, Naples was outside the cone yet under a hurricane warning. I created this graphic incorporating storm size just for this reason.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Regarding potential development heading toward Gulf next week, I think many of the details on what or how strong involves a little upper level low pressure system dropping into the eastern Gulf Monday. According to the GFS, the low creates wind shear limiting development of the

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

The apparent center of TD10 has now moved well south of even the southern most forecast points of the previous model runs. South of 20° N was not anticipated. Even yesterday's more south suggested Euro ensemble didn't go this far south.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Hurricane Life Hack. Freeze bottled water ahead of time. If power goes out, move the bottles into a nearby cooler & grab some fridge items to put in there to eat later. Then DON’T open fridge/freezer again so cold stays inside. #SetzerSays

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

@RestLessFlames @Jeff_Nowak It's called vortex shedding. It's often there, not as pronounced, but you just can't see it. Think of a rock in a fast moving stream and the swirls that spin off of it.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Something to remember out in the deep tropics, often how strong a storm is, determines where it wants to go, not the other way around. So a stronger system will sense the trough to its north and want to go that way. A weaker system will miss the trough and scoot toward the block.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

5AM Tuesday NHC advisory based timing graphic shows how the expected wind field from Idalia fits into the tropical storm/hurricane watches & warnings. Of note this morning, the faster forward speed means two things. 1, preps in the direct path need to be wrapped up today. 2, as

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Based on history, a storm in the position of Lee is about 8 or 9 days from the US. Lee might even end up being a little slower, if it impacts the US at all. Typically we only watch a storm this far out timewise, and if we don't have our June 1 hurricane kit & plan, it's a

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 months

@MattDevittWX On the contrary, it's actually not that bad. Winds SE right now at 25 knots. Once we're clear of the oil rigs, we'll blast on southeast and by morning, sunshine and smooth sailing. :-)

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

What isn't spinning in the Atlantic right now? Sheesh

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

With the recent Florida tornadoes, before folks start saying "we never had tornadoes here before" or similar phrases, let's look at a little tornado history, thanks to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Over the past 30 years, Florida ranks fourth in the nation for tornadoes.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Based on the 5PM Wed NHC advisory, expected time of arrival (and cessation) of tropical storm conditions for Hurricane Lee. Folks in New England and southeast Canada should have outdoor activities wrapped up by sunset on Friday. In other words, by Friday sunset, plan to be

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

There is very good consensus on the models right now, so if NHC starts advisories, we will likely see a cone pretty much centered on the tightly clustered model tracks. Differences are "along track" meaning timing of arrival from Tuesday night to Wednesday night range. Florida

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Consider this like a Storm Prediction Center beyond 3 day outlook graphic. The threat means "chances preparations needed for a hurricane". It's like a heads up graphic. Southern Leeward, Windward, Barbados, T&T, northeast coast of Venezuela, should all be watching closely. Oct 2.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

11 months

You know it’s been a crazy windy weather night when you leaves matted to your window…34 floors up

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

The models seem to be doing a pretty good job with a fairly complex pattern. Of course we won't know for sure until after it all happens, but the run to run & model to model consistency is fairly high right now. Several steering features will be in play over the next week or so.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

7 years

From my TV interview with NHC Director "if this hits south Florida this is going to be a once in a generation event...the big one for us"

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

4 years

Falling Iguana WARNING now if effect for overnight temps in the low 40s over much of the area.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 months

While it's easy to conflate storms that move along similar paths, Beryl WILL NOT BE A Harvey event for Houston. Days before Harvey made landfall southwest of Houston near Corpus Christi, it was known the atmospheric steering currents would collapse, stalling the storm near the

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

While Franklin makes an east jog before resuming north motion in the Atlantic, the Euro continues to show a signal for something developing out of the NW Carib & moving into the eastern Gulf. That signal is not there in the GFS. Because nothing exists to track right now, we

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

Enhanced satellite shows classic doughnut eye wall with intense hurricanes moving inland. A rarely issued Extreme Wind Warning has been issued for areas just south of NOLA for winds over 115mph. Folks who live in hurricane zones also know this as "time to hunker down".

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

After remnants of Lee moves on out, Margot spins, and TD15 becomes Nigel but stays out to sea, maybe we'll have a break in the Atlantic and be at 2023 hurricane season half-time. As many expected, lots of Atlantic activity, but thankfully few large impact threats to the

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

29 days

Just a reminder that until a persistent tropical feature we can track develops, the models don't provide much planning guidance. So all the hype of where this *might* go from reposting models, is nothing more than rolling dice with your number possibly coming up.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Deerfield Beach Pier in far northeast Broward taking a beating. Not sure how much will be left by morning.

Chaudhary Parvez

@ChaudharyParvez

2 years

Deerfield beach pier has been getting beat up slowly falling apart... #Nicole #HurricaneNicole #Florida #warning #HurricaneNicole #hurricane #US

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Hurricane Lee is now moving northward at a steady pace. At this point with northward motion established, we gain some confidence in the model solutions. We are operating on a preps timeline (see next tweet). We don't want to be doing anything outdoors once the bad weather

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

5 years

Obstacles before opportunity for Dorian as dry air presently limits strengthening, some shear, mountainous islands affect storm Wed-Thu, then lower shear & very warm ocean temps will give an opportunity for intensification Fri-Sun. Florida threat remains #SetzerSays

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

While the weather, wind, rain, surge will still be bad in Tampa Bay, the risk of a major destructive hurricane event in Tampa Bay is decreasing with each minute Idalia moves north. The certainty is high the storm will not make a sudden jog to the east. For those who have been

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

The afternoon (18z) Euro ensemble continues to move east, in a big way. Now nearly zero members go into Yucatan/Gulf. This shorter distance to Florida means less time to strengthen (if it comes to Florida) but maybe arriving earlier Tues. Expecting GFS to follow suit coming east

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Tropical Storm Idalia, from NHC. Of note, the pressure is lower than most models were predicting at this point. We will now watch closely to see if Idalia can wrap/build thunderstorms/convection around its center. If that happens, it will be setting the stage for

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Today at 4:45PM, I'll cover what is sure to be Tropical Storm Bret, where it's headed, what might influence it, and who needs to watch most closely. And I'll try to explain why it's impossible right now to answer the questions regarding your vacation/travel plans. See you at

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

This seems to be a big player once [Ian] gets into Gulf. Euro (12z) holds a piece of trough back turning [Ian] to the northeast across central/south Florida. GFS (18z) moves out trough leaving [Ian] in light steering flow (drifting storm). Days 3-5 differences remain large.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

11 months

Not surprisingly, a very bad night in Bimini as the center of the circulation with winds likely near or above hurricane force passed directly over the Bahamian island (north and south Bimini).

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reported 992mb, and not in center so probably lower. If this is a good QC pressure, then the RI has begun. Much of the day Ian was holding steady in the low 1000s, this is a big drop.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

This is kind of a messy pattern in the models. They are having very poor model to model consistency, and it makes for challenges in determining what & where something might develop. The Euro remains bullish (on everything) developing a depression/storm, bringing it to western

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

People already asking how models did on Ian. First glance GFS, HWRF, HMON way too far west first three days. Euro close on track but a little too slow. NHC also too far left of track. By 5 days, GFS way left, Euro a little right. Goal is to hit the bullseye.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

4 months

We're knocking on the door to the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season & already we have a healthy looking very low latitude tropical wave out there. Shear should keep this from developing but active waves in June (May) are usually not a good sign for the season ahead.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Hurricane WATCH now in effect for Broward & Palm Beach counties. Tropical storm WATCH now in effect for Miami-Dade. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are POSSIBLE in these areas within the next 48 hours.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

#WxTwitter Please don't use NAM 3-KM for tropical cyclones. It was never built to be a tropical model and creates extreme outliers. NHC doesn't use it, you shouldn't either. In other words, no, a cat 4 is not expected to hit Long Island.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Lots of questions so I'll go back to what I said this yesterday, and it still applies today. "Until we see exactly where it exits the Yucatan, we won't know for sure who is most at risk in Florida. This means, we may need to be prepared over a larger area than usual along the

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

11 months

Many asking why didn't they have hurricane shutters or storm rated glass? Acapulco sits along a portion of the Mexican Pacific coast that rarely sees hurricane impacts, and has not recorded a major hurricane in nearly two centuries. It would be similar to asking why Miami

Tropical ‘overruled, sit down’ 🦠😷🌻

@TropicalVertic1

11 months

@CraigSetzer Just awful to see the Acapulco before & after images

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 months

Pretty sobering words from CSU @philklotzbach on the seasonal and weekly Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. "This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Tuesday afternoon satellite loop of Nicole showing it becoming better organized and making the quick turn to the southwest. Now the anxious waiting period begins for South Florida (how close will it get?) & continues for Florida east coast (where will the worst be?).

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

Wed AM models in good agreement, strong disturbance likely to become next named system (Elsa, no memes please) & move quickly west northwest through Caribbean this weekend. Too early to tell what if any impacts to South Florida but not too early to have your hurricane plan ready

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Sunday morning finds Hurricane Lee well behaved with track (and forecast), despite some intensity forecast challenges. Because we prepare for a hurricane threat based on a timeline, & models have been consistent with some implied threat to the Northeast & Atlantic Canada, we will

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

I guess we shouldn't be surprised with an "I" storm. Ian appears to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, and fairly quickly at that. Good news is, intensity will come down for a bit, bad news is the hurricane wind field will grow bigger.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

The SW Atlantic developing low pressure area has been designated 98L allowing us to have a model & data window on the feature. Sun AM runs show lots of turns, one from N-NW-W-SW, then one back to the NW-N-NE. Turns make a forecast have higher uncertainty.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Besides an enhanced cone with extent of tropical storm & hurricane conditions added, we need detailed prep & timeline graphics of what folks should be doing & when. This is what I was talking about 2 days before landfall (Mon 11am) on TROPICAL TRACKS

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

Leading edge of severe storms headed toward Weston, Coral Springs, much of Northwest Broward. Looking north from alligator alley

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Atlantic disturbance looking very healthy & advisories will likely be started today, TS Bret or TD 3. It appears the center may have formed/relocated a bit father north based on these images. A farther north initial position could have downstream implications to forecast track.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

6 years

Terrifying video of tsunami hitting Palu in Indonesia after 7.7 earthquake. Shape of bay likely accentuated wave magnitude by funneling it into city. Appears to be the second and larger wave and moving very fast.

Anggunesia

@Anggunesia

6 years

Tsunami menerjang Kota Palu. Video diambil oleh sumber yang sudah berantai dengan posisi di Palu GrandMall. Semoga Allah SWT melindungi saudara-saudara kita semua disana dan wilayah-wilayah terdampak tsunami lainnya. Amin 🙏🏼🙏🏼 #Gempa #Tsunami #Palu #Donggala #PrayForIndonesia

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 years

That sound...if you've ever experienced it, you never forget it.

Tiff Fortier

@tornadotiff_

3 years

With the help of wxtwitter, I found some footage of what looks like Grand Isle, LA experiencing Ida’s inner eyewall. It sounds terrifying. You can view the whole live video here:

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

3 months

Friday morning finds our lead tropical wave/disturbance (95L) looking very healthy, on the verge of being a tropical depression or storm. Behind it, our next disturbance (likely 96L) is farther south/lower latitude but also looking healthy. And even farther west, a new large

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

4 days

That escalated quickly. All South Florida metro areas (Miami-Dade, Broward, PBC and Keys) now under a Tropical Storm Warning because the wind field around Helene is forecast to expand east across South Florida. Bottom line, expect spotty power outages, some flooded roads

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Subtropical Storm Nicole with 45mph winds has formed and is forecast to impact Florida & southeast US with gusty winds, heavy rains, & coastal surge flooding this week. I am traveling this morning and will have a complete update with specific threats to Florida Monday afternoon.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

I like to keep things understandable because so many non-mets like to peer into met-met twitter conversations. As everyone has probably seen, the Atlantic Ocean is uncomfortably warm which typically leads to a very active hurricane season. But with El Niño coming on, there will

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

5am NHC advisory for Hurricane Ian. Every time you hear "hazards extend outside the cone" this is what they mean, and why I created this graphic. The cone is tracking a point on the map, but Ian is much bigger than a single point.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Besides the global models (GFS, ECM, ICON) we have some very good regional hurricane models (HAFS). We'll be following their output for track & intensity closely in the coming days. Their skill should even get better once NOAA hurricane hunter planes use Tail Doppler Radar (TDR)

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Looking good in the tropics, now let's hope we can keep it that way for many months. It wasn't a very active season for most, but for Florida it was a rough one.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

7 years

Frightening video of what should normally be a full bay up to the edge. Frightening because it will come back in and then some, with force

Jillian Mele

@jillianmele

7 years

Look at Tampa Bay... this AM there were whitecaps. @JaniceDean told me the winds from #irma are pushing the water out @foxandfriends

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

12 days

There continues to be some signal in the global models suggesting development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean next week. Models suggest a northward movement is possible but it's a ways out and will likely shift around a bit. It is a reminder that we are still in the

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

Here's the 5PM Monday NHC forecast advisory prep timeline for Idalia. Plan to have outdoor activities/preps wrapped up before tropical storm force winds arrive. Any slight shifts in the track to the east/right will bring hurricane conditions to the west coast earlier and

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

2 years

Looking at all Aug-Sep-Oct storms & hurricanes that have passed within 100 miles of 98L's current location since 1851 shows a wide variety of previous tracks. Those who say "it normally wouldn't go there" don't know history.

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

1 year

It kind of makes me sad this morning to see the way the Euro handles a very weak disturbance coming out of the islands ending up in Wichita Kansas. This solution, which is highly suspect, gives the "brown ocean" theory a whole new meaning. #WxTwitter PlainsCane?

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Craig Setzer, CCM

@CraigSetzer

11 months

Thing looked like the mother ship moving away this morning. We definitely felt its fury during the night.

Mark Sudduth

@hurricanetrack

11 months

Really neat time lapse of the highly impactful storm system as it departed south Florida this morning as seen from our cam in Ft Lauderdale. Seems like we can see the rotation of the meso low 👀 @foxweather @CraigSetzer

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