@JoeyMannarinoUS
They are taken advantage of on a level that is unimaginable to me.
@JoeyMannarinoUS
Have you ever driven Uber or Lyft? Youāll make less than minimum wage and that doesnāt account for gas, wear and tear, etc. Why is there an assumption that all drivers are not US citizens? Perhaps
@TaviCosta
This is nothing like the 99ā tech bubble where there were 10ās of thousands of .com shell companies with nothing trading on the open market. Thereās a very big difference. Iām not telling you that the Nasdaq and the rest of the market have problems but the tech industry is a very
This is a great post! Read it.
I can tell you that trading against systems is so easy itās unbelievable. These systems are primarily trend following and the systems are based on the simplest of indicators. However, any real forecaster or trader can see what might happen when
well I was lucky I started market making before it was primarily automated and systematized away from trader discretion
there are a TON of good floor traders on my feed (show yourself!) current or former that know what I mean
..lot of guys have become data entry tools : (
and
Technically a 5% move is absolutely in the cards. I have the first price šÆ at 4950 on the S&P500, which takes us back to Feb 21st 2024.
#GoldmanSachs
is genius! The timing corresponds directly with the inevitable slowing demand in retail as
#taxday
approaches
Goldman flags big moves ahead..
"Our model suggests a 25% probability of +5% move in SPX over next 1m (options price 6% chance) or 24% chance of -5% move (options pricing 10% chance)"
Goldman's GS EQMOVE has beenšÆ for a while
Macro & flows suggest volatility coming
@carolbello860
@JoeyMannarinoUS
#fakenews
they would have to work 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, and average $19.50 per hour. Nice try. Most of these guys average about $13.00 an hour and I KNOW.
Hmmmā¦ So bullish sentiment is rising except the strong hands that create market actionā¦
They have short-term hedging in placeā¦
Probably doesnāt mean anythingš
GS flagging the return to spot up / vol down as well...
"Market turned bullish post CPI as we traded in a spot up / vol down regime."
"..mostly cheap upside buyers or rolling of calls up & out as we approached new highs"
"..dealers also hit on short-dated hedges"
Iām not 100% sure, but this turtle was saying something about forgetting to hedge his positions for the last couple of weeksā¦ Something about buying the dips because of a trend? IDK
@Stock_Pursuit
@TaviCosta
Iām in agreement! $BTC, NFTās, and Blockchain were the bubble. We may even be closer to 92ā with the upcoming AI bubble. That point where we really donāt even know whatās possible.
My opinion on the market today and for the foreseeable future.
Bears wonāt quit waiting for the market to drop so every time the market gaps up, they pile on. Conversely, the drivers of this market (quants & systematic traders) watch a gap fill and buy buy buy. Sending the
The Senior Loan Officer Survey earlier this week gave more information than many recognized.
If you make appropriate adjustments you see that the aggregate change in lending standards is high over the last 6 months.
Weāre all looking at the current banking crisis and discussing the Fed, deposits, 0% in interest leading investors to seek yield, but why are we pretending we couldnāt see this coming?
@ThatsRi32924808
@JoeyMannarinoUS
For some itās easy peasy. For others itās their only option. Or one of the VERY FEW options they have. Tell me youāve been privileged without telling me youāve been privileged. Lol.
$COCOA
#chocolate
This is the sheep following the sheep. If youāve already learned from making this mistake, donāt fret. But, donāt repeat this!!!
@guideforlovers
Sheās missing something in the relationship that makes her feel safe and sexually attracted to him. Does she feel seen, heard, loved, etc. Women are very different from men and we are attracted to each other for very different reasonsā¦
However, this guy will not put up with no
I guess this is just normal in Nebraskaā¦Talk about built different! They just keep driving like theyāre not driving into a tornado! Does anyone understand this logic?
via JPM this week:
"With crowding in the Momentum factor in the 99.8%ile... such crowding episodes tend to be followed by an eventual and often sharp correction."
I use bars not candles but that bar/candle was very positive in the short- term. Big candle, finishing at the lows, on big volume, coming off a high. Institutional investors only do things like that to promote fear in retail.
One of the great scenes from the Rocky franchise that taught us about life. RIP Carl Weathers. We are only here for a short time. Donāt wait until tomorrow.
#Rocky
#apollocreed
#thereisnotomorrow
@musicandwork
I love hearing different perspectives! There are ways to choose the positions that have the highest probability of success and minimize overall risk? Iām not sure how you choose this position, but clearly the dividend isnāt making up for the falling price.. š¤·š»āāļø
@VolSignals
Thatās awesome! What a beautiful story. He must of been so proud to show you. And, you must have been so proud that he received that award.
Let me offer a different perspectiveā¦. Bears wonāt quit waiting for the market to drop so every time the market gaps up, they pile on. Conversely, the drivers of this market (quants & systematic traders) watch a gap fill and buy buy buy. Sending the market higher, blowing out
Who on planet fucking earth watches a 1% rally fail on good news, then go 0.5% red and thinks to themselves bargain of a lifetime let me get in there and chase the tape higher???? Who???
Somebody essplain this to me.
The only reason I donāt understand this is because we are at such high prices. Buying everything in sight when Ukraine was invaded made perfect sense, this does not. This is a very bearish signal to me.
Here we finish up the macro view of the
#sp500
($SPY) and the
#nasdaq
($QQQ) What we discover is per shocking. The two indexes have a very different story. If you want to know what it is, youāll have to watch.
#stockmarket
#tradingstrategy
LARGE ORDERS (INTERVENTION) are ALWAYS a concern regardless of the market you trade in.
USDJPY dropped as low as 154.04 in the NY Tuesday morning session. Our
eTrading desk confirms this was unlikely to be intervention, since previous instances saw much larger traded
volumes
WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW ON THE MARKET?
Earlier I talked a lot about the dynamics of structural short squeezes and AI hype that have supported this
#market
rally. These, along with the gamma effect and
#volatility
suppression by dealers could create market uptrends, even in the face
JPM - Oilš¢ļøš¢ļø
As I discussed last week, oilās demand is expected to drop and guess what? It is! šš
Our high-frequency demand indicators estimate that worldwide oil consumption so far in April averaged 101.0 mbd, 200 kbd below our published estimates.
ā”ļøOn a year-over-year
@nicholnikk
@JoeyMannarinoUS
In the US we also have something called MINIMUM wage. That means itās the minimum you can make in a given hour.
@Uber
and
@lyft
drivers often make far less than that.
Conversation about $AAPL and $UPS 4 days ago in a group on
#FB
āUPS is ugly too. Falling stock price in a rising market.
There's someone out there that's been attempting to gap up the price but fails every time... This thing will hit $120-$125 before you can assess it properly.
@RayZ33388449
@Chewy11235
Distribution is another way of saying BIG money is selling, which leads to a precipitous price drop. This type of distribution shows up on a daily or weekly chart. You can have selling, before a standard market correction for example, that youāll need to look at a 30 minute chart
I am going to give away one free client access to someone that likes, reposts and comments on this post. š„š„
You will be able to run the Wifey Index allocations for one quarter to see if you like it. No strings attached. No pressure.
@Nick_Wellings
From my perspective the āeventā used to justify why the market drops, is simply a scapegoat to the fact that institutions sold off enough supply at enough of a % gain that theyāre ready to buy back some positions at cheaper prices. āEventsā are hedged long before weāre informed.
Yes, thatās correct. It means that the ābig guysā are offloading their supply, therefore they gap the price up, in order to get a better fill, and then the little guys, waiting for the ādipā buy the shares. Make sense? Exchange of strong hands to weak hands scenario. Very common
Nailed it. Price rose to a little over $108 and now itās at $91.50. Donāt let someone offer you rising price estimates in a rising marketā¦ Any idiot will be correct 80% of the time by merely guessing. Try guessing your way to this forecast for $SIG on Monday. The earnings
$SIG earnings release on Thursday June 13th has prices set to rise only to create selling pressure for prices to ultimately fall. I should have been more clear in some of my earlier posts. You live and you learn.
Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker once said that the one mistake he had made in the late 1970s was not stopping the price of gold from rising as much it did in that period
At 3pm New York time last Thursday there was a US$1.6bn sale of $Gold futures in about three minutes
Target hit ahead of schedule! šÆ!!! $SQM Pay attention to how many of my forecasts are accurate. š„š„š„
Notice that my forecasts are 50/50 when it comes to higher price targets and lower price targets. šš
This is how to identify a Master from charlatan. šŖšŖ
$AAPL is telling a great story here. When gaps are filling as prices rise, thatās one way to confirm the upward trend. The inverse is also true. As you can see, Appleās trend has reversed. It was a market leader. Could this be an indicator of whatās to come in the general market?
Yen, SP500, Gold, Cocoa, Oil, itās all the same at the moment.
Thereās so much computer based trading that itās like watching herds of buffalo running in one direction and switching direction at the same time.
We call it Trend following in the biz. š
@willemijn_arjen
Thatās certainly possible. Thatās something we can evaluate later. I try not to make assumptions and stick to the process, otherwise I may subconsciously create a narrative to prove my assumption correct.
This sounds good to me! The last thing I want right now is high activity levels. That would most likely be selling and this is status quo which will allow the market to drift higher and squeeze shorts!
#tuesdaymotivations
#StockMarket
#Finance
...GS on yesterday's session-
"trading volumes tracking down -16% vs 20d avg"
"Stocks POPPED on US Treasury Quarterly Financing Estimates to borrow 760b vs 816b estimate...
..less bond supply = lower yields."
"-desk was a 4 on 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels"
UBS - US Equity Strategy
Downgrading Big 6, Maintaining Overweight in Rest of TECH+
āIām sure tech will be fine if the BIG 6 start dropping in price. AHAHAHA!!! ā - Mr. Burns
Downgrading Big 6 on Earnings Momentum Reversal Investors attribute the run in mega cap stocks to
$ARM hereās another company that has its average
#volume
blown out of the water after itās up 100% in
#price
, itās now up 300% but price hasnāt moved. $ARM will return to $60. Retail demand will drop as we head into
#taxday
and pension selling is coming.
If youāve ever been in a competition with another individual youāll understand this... A great competitor brings the level of competition up to a higher standard, the inverse is also true.. If you know, you know.
Large gaps in any direction (up or down) based on news or a company report are almost always a play on investor/trader emotions.
The gap size also tells you what strong hands feel about the investors on the other side of the trade. The larger the gap, the more committed the
Expected fundamentals will give me timeframes to keep my eyes on while the technical flows of shares traded and big money positioning provides the ultimate ātime to sellā. However I scale in and out of every position. Nothing is just in and out at 100% or even 20%.
How does everyone decide when to sell a stock that they're up money on?
Technical spots on charts? ie measured moves, trendline
Percentage increase?
Fundamental changes, valuation...
Or is it the never sell mindset, like Buffett?
#China
$FXI IndexesĀ areĀ rebalancedĀ everyĀ year.Ā What does that do to the historical data ofĀ theĀ stockĀ market.Ā The world calculations are CONSTANTLY being updated. I wonder why????
Iām old enough to remember when they said pullbacks are healthy. What ever happened to that?
This is insane. The same price action canāt happen every single day in a free market. This is all a complete fraud.