arjun⚡️murti @ArjunNMurti Twitter profile

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arjun⚡️murti

1 year

1 of 7/ The Energy Transition Needs to Transition: A look at Africa 1.3 billion Africans use about 4 mn b/d of crude oil or just over 1 barrel per person per year. 375 million US and Canadians citizens consume 23 mn b/d, or 20+ barrels per capita.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

1/ Observations of a retired stock analyst. As someone who called a then coming super-spike era for oil markets in 2004, but failed to get off in 2008 until well into the downturn, the current innovation/Bubble stock gurus seem to be making many of the same mistakes I made.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 10/ We badly need a new a narrative around climate and energy, if the goal is to have reliable, affordable energy the world needs with less CO2. The current “Oil is Evil and the New Tobacco” playbook, IMO, is driving a worst of all worlds outcome: Higher prices, Same CO2.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

1 of 7/ A deeply serious, non-sarcastic thread on the US LNG "pause." First, there is no such thing as a standard "industry view": - US gas users (US pet chem, power gen) would favor LESS LNG and support the pause. - Oil & Gas companies with previously approved LNG projects

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

8 Last/ Value stocks are only values if returns on capital improve. I think we may be at the start of an ROCE super cycle for Old Energy. But if we are not, I won’t be turning to buy the “dip” in innovation/Bubble stocks. Perhaps I should do more work on other commodities?

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 16/ Wouldn’t it be simpler for President Biden to just tell the truth about why oil prices have risen, since its mostly not his fault? Here’s a script outline he could consider: WARNING: Non-partisan parody follows. My apologies in advance to everyone offended.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

6/ I love innovation, my Model 3, and all that new tech will bring us. Thank goodness for most of it. But the inevitability of future innovation does not mean corresponding equities are immune from hype or a down cycle. The Internet remains awesome, but its Bubble still burst.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

4/ Your outlook can still ultimately come true. But exactly zero investors are interested in riding out a massive correction only to be proven right in 5, 10, or 20 years. Even the longest term “fundamental” investor would never voluntarily choose to stay for a structural unwind.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

5/ In early 2008, an Internet bubble super star came to me and offered unsolicited, friendly advice about the mistakes he had made in 2000-1. He was spot on. I ignored him. I can remember sitting in his office to this day and thinking “thanks, but I am not you.” I was wrong.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

6 months

100% Mr President

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

6 months

A must watch! This is my hero! He is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, President of Guyana. #Oil #Guyana

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

3/ The idea that we were using “conservative” normalized assumptions for oil equities I sincerely thought was true. However, it didn’t matter. When you are toward the end of massive bull market, no one else is using conservative assumptions.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

2/ The idea that your favorite innovation/Bubble stock never discounted 0-1% Treasuries is as dumb as when I said oil equities weren’t discounting $140 and “only” $90-$100/bbl (or something like that). The market is almost certainly discounting better conditions than you realize.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

1 of 8/ This week’s post focuses on sentiment toward the traditional energy sector. Key takeaway: It's early days in the new energy crisis era.

Sentiment Watch: The 3Rs - ROCE rebounding, Recovering S&P weight, Rescued assets

It is still early days in the new energy crisis era

arjunmurti.substack.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

Coal is now 90% non-OECD...probably has the most secure growth outlook of any fossil fuel as the negative increments from OECD declines are almost fully behind it. For everyone that had oil demand having peaked in 2019 but now 2028, we are still waiting for Coal to peak...

Robert Bryce

@pwrhungry

1 year

“Because renewable energy (sources such as) wind and solar power are intermittent and unstable, we must rely on a stable power source,” Su said. “We have no other choice. For a period of time, we may need to use coal power…”

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

$37 WTI is still a bad price for E&Ps 1/ I am surprised at how much apparent concern there is about ~$37 WTI being too fast too soon. I suppose it has been faster than many expected, but traditionally oil bounces hard and fast off super contango troughs.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

At a time of rocky GDP in the 3 largest oil consuming areas—China, Europe, USA—oil demand is blowing through “peak demand” ideology. What will oil D look like if global GDP starts doing better and 7 bn people using 3 bbls per capita rise closer to the 16 bbls rich countries use?

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

1 year

COLUMN: In this age of climate crisis, the world is consuming more oil than ever. Peak demand? Not yet. On my calculations, global oil demand has surpassed in the past few weeks the peak set in 2019 before the covid pandemic | #OOTT via @Opinion

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

Is Canadian oil really among the dirtiest? Worse than coal-fired solar panels from China? or rare earths mining in Africa? Any forced labor used in the Oil Sands? Does it fund proxy wars in M East? Do Canadian Oils poison dissidents? Seriously, why is it among the dirtiest?

Bloomberg Energy

@BloombergNRG

3 years

Canada’s oil sands industry, which produces one of the dirtiest forms of crude, is backing a plan to build out carbon-capture infrastructure to eliminate some emissions on a net basis by 2050

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

100% @JavierBlas . It's been a near unanimous call to not invest: traditional investors, climate activists, policy shops, academics, western politicians. NO ONE wants upstream CAPEX to rise. We don't have to be tight energy...we are choosing this messy energy transition path.

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

2 years

COLUMN: "Let’s not kid ourselves. Oil companies are doing what we told them to do: Spend less on fossil fuel production. From green philanthropists to big Wall Street investors, the message has been nearly unanimous." | via @opinion

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 7/ We need more good barrels and fewer bad barrels Today’s post outlines a path for USA + Canada to displace 10 mn b/d of Russia + Iran oil exports by 2030

We need more good barrels and fewer bad barrels

A plan for USA + Canada to displace 10 mn b/d of Russia + Iran oil exports by 2030

arjunmurti.substack.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

The focus on reducing supply rather than demand didn’t work in Coal. Yet similar policies are being pursued in oil. Bad policy that leads to a worst of all worlds outcome: no change to CO2 + higher prices for consumers + worsening energy poverty. Why pursue a failed playbook?

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

3 years

MUST READ: The unintended consequences of BlackRock and other investors' push to divest coal -- and how the very same mines are now getting a second life owned by other investors | via @tbiesheuvel

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

7/ Perhaps innovation/Bubble stocks will get bailed out by the fact that we are coming out of a pandemic and global GDP growth is picking up? Maybe. I don’t know. But will they work as well when they are no longer the only game in town?

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

1 of 6/ Will Oil Go The Way of Coal? Oil bulls can only hope so, as coal demand reached an all-time high in 2022 and shows no signs of entering terminal decline. On equities, IMO, there is no comparison between US coal and US oil & gas in terms of relevance and needed CAPEX.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

1 of 15/ Bubble psychology from the perspective of a retired stock analyst When you first make a big call as an analyst, the doubters come out en masse as you are going against the overwhelming consensus. Initially, you are way right and everyone else is wrong. Then it switches.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 12/ Stop trying to get Blockbuster Video — i.e. Big Oil—to accelerate energy transition Crazy-idea-of-the-week: Free Big Oil to focus on producing (still) needed oil and gas.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 9/ CO2 and Major Oil M&A There is a growing recognition that Major Oil asset sales do nothing to change the world’s CO2 emissions curve. Given oil markets, unlike electricity, are global, there is frankly no action for a specific asset that will make a difference.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

Canadian oil cos produce oil the world clearly needs. Canada is a nice, friendly neighbor. Canadian Oils are better at ESG than most nation states they compete with. Suncor will never invade a Baltic state. Journalists are safe in CVE's office. CNQ doesn't use forced labor.

Bloomberg Energy

@BloombergNRG

3 years

Canada’s oil companies are outperforming their energy-producing peers as the highest crude prices in seven years brings a windfall of cash

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

Really, more wind + solar is what is needed? No calls for new nuclear that would provide actual base-load power? Outcompete developing countries for imported LNG? Is that “climate justice”? No call for domestic gas drilling?

International Energy Agency

@IEA

3 years

Our 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas is out now! It shows how measures implemented this year could bring down gas imports from Russia by over one-third. Learn more ⬇️

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

For oil investors: first bit of good news in 2023. For policy makers: Canada has a lot of oil...just need pipes to get it out efficiently. With a CCUS Hub, it will be CO2 neutral with other sources...but will be from CANADA, a friendly country.

Amena Bakr

@Amena__Bakr

1 year

Summary of the voluntary cuts: RUS: 500,000 SAUDI ARABIA: 500,000 IRQ: 211,000 UAE: 144,000 KWT: 128,000 KZT: 78,000 Oman: 40,000 Algeria: 48,000 #OOTT #OPEC

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 8/ Energy Transition public policy and ESG pressures - the best thing going for the oil & gas sector The unfolding energy crisis is unlike any prior. Normal investor angst about poor ROCE have been turbo-charged with a “worst of all worlds” public policy and ESG backdrop.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 8/ Energy Transition and US Big Oil Nice job by $CVX last week articulating its own transition path, one better suited to what the world needs and not succumbing to peer pressure to emulate the Euro Majors. And we were mercifully spared a name change to ChevronEnergia!

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

Indeed. sign of reality setting in...

FT Energy

@ftenergy

1 year

Top EU energy official says US gas will be needed for decades

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

10/ None of this should be construed as defending fossil fuels. Rather I am defending every person’s right to reliable and affordable energy, which, at this time, overwhelmingly comes from fossil fuels. Air, water, energy.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

7/ Oil companies don’t have “customers”, certainly not in any commonly used sense of the word. Energy is not something we “choose”. It is life: Air, Water, Energy. Policies that emphasize limiting energy supply are doomed to fail. They are fundamentally insane.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

how nice…Canada should try to strike a similar deal for KXL…

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

1 year

So Venezuela it is... According to the @WashingtonPost , the US would ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports in exchange for Nicolas Maduro allowing free elections in 2024 #OOTT #Venezuela

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

@PollockJaxon Thank you. I promise I have plenty of arrogance and over-confidence as well. Can’t make big calls if you don’t. But you do need to admit when you are wrong or you will simply repeat mistakes.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 11/ Energy lies, damn lies, and politicians...Part 1. This is a non-partisan look at energy sector falsehoods, mis-truths, and outright lies told by politicians, industry participants, environmentalists, and Wall Street analysts.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

7 months

Oil cos manufacture essentially zero products that combust oil. Amazon Prime delivery? not created by XOM. Lincoln Navigator SUV? not created by SHEL. Did Standard Oil invent airplanes? I don't believe so. But yelling at "Big Energy" is definitely a smart, well-considered, deeply

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

7 months

Boeing Calls Out Big Energy for Inaction on Sustainable Jet Fuel Oil producers not doing enough to help, Boeing executive says Frustration grows at low supply of sustainable aviation fuel #oott

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

10 months

Repent and be baptized, every one of you, in the name of Our Lord for the forgiveness of your sins, and you will receive the gift of Net Zero by 2050. - Acts 2:38 (modified)

Fatih Birol

@fbirol

10 months

The oil & gas industry faces a moment of truth at #COP28 It must choose: keep fueling the climate crisis or embrace the shift to clean energy. Today, its efforts aren’t encouraging. It accounts for under 1% of global clean energy investment. Our report:

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

I've still got the over on 2030 oil, nat gas, and coal demand. What is the relevance of scenarios not based in reality? How does that help promote sensible energy or climate policies?

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

1 year

CHART OF THE DAY: On its net-zero by 2050 normative pathway (not forecast), the IEA says that oil demand needs to plunge from >100m b/d currently to 77m b/d by 2030 and 24m b/d by 2050 (in 2021, it said 72m b/d by 2030). #OOTT Full report pdf:

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

3/ Does anyone know what year global Coal production peaked before its rapid decline following the demise of the Appalachia coal industry? This is of course a trick question, as it hasn’t happened yet. The jobs and CAPEX simply shifted to China and India.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 10/ An open letter to COP27 organizers Dear Team COP27, A few suggestions from someone who sincerely cares about reducing energy poverty, ideally with zero CO2. Warning: Another attempt at Parody. Save the hate for a future tweet about newfound E&P capital discipline.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

7 months

Welcome back Jeff

FT Energy

@ftenergy

7 months

Carlyle hires ex-Goldman commodities analyst Jeff Currie in energy push

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

Well worth the 5 minutes. Thank you @anasalhajji for posting.

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

1 year

This is a must listen…. #Climate #hypocrisy #Energy #COP28

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 months

WEEKEND LISTENING #3 : interesting discussion on historic weather records…

Chuck Yates (He / His / Him)

@nimblephatty

3 months

NEW PODCAST - @ChrisMartzWX has been absolutely blowing up @x setting the record straight on what we know and what we don’t know about climate change. (Spoiler alert: we’re not all going to die tomorrow). A senior at MU studying meteorology Chris sets the record straight about

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

7 months

quite a quote from President Macron.

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

"The IEA has become, so to speak, our armed wing of implementing the Paris agreement” Macron. The IEA has no guns, is Macron saying analysis/fcasts are their weapons to implement Paris as opposed to analyzing energy! Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz will say I told you so! #OOTT

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

6 months

You never know who you will run into on the beautiful streets of Vienna...a pleasure to meet @ericnuttall in person. And 2 thumbs up to Vienna!...it's been probably 20 years since I was last here. I may not be a fan of EU energy policy, but they do have some beautiful cities.

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

6 months

Twitter has been such a powerful platform to share non-mainstream, non-consensus, fact-based views on energy, and many who do so feel like they know each other, at least virtually. A great pleasure is meeting Energy Twitter friends like @ArjunNMurti and @AzizSapphire in person.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

9 months

Another day…another announcement of new coal plants… Coal India arms approved to invest $674m in 2.26GW power plants

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

2/ Believing that we will have less CO2 if we could simply force oil companies to address “Scope 3” emissions is a fairy tale. You probably can succeed in killing the western oil industry as has happened with US coal. But the CAPEX, jobs, and CO2 will only shift to other regions.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

10 months

Great holiday reading. Marc Rich was before my time in markets though I of course recall President Clinton's controversial pardon. Well researched book. Interesting figure in the history of oil/commodity markets.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

I HAVE BEEN TAGGED on @YouTube ! Apparently, debate and discussion over energy & climate policies is not allowed without health warning labels. My first ever! The video discusses Barclays' updated Climate Change Statement, German IP declines, and Norway oil demand v EV sales. And

Tonyforever

@Tonyforever2003

8 months

@ArjunNMurti @trevor_rose_ @ArjunNMurti Your new video is tagged by YouTube.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

Why would anyone want to deter Canadian oil if all it means is we get more from Iran, Russia, OPEC+? How many of those countries have created a pathways to net zero initiative? Canada has done more than most to deliver reliable, affordable energy.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

10 months

How is it that @OPECSecretariat is now the voice of reason!?! Makes one long for the days of "missing barrels" being the biggest controversy facing the IEA...

OPEC

@OPECSecretariat

10 months

Whose ‘moment of truth’?

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

shocker…

India asks utilities to not retire coal-fired power plants till 2030 - notice

India has asked utilities to not retire coal-fired power plants till 2030 due to a surge in electricity demand, according to a federal power ministry notice reviewed by Reuters, just over two years...

www.reuters.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

9/ The idea that you solve climate change by creating a shortage of traditional oil & gas supply, I predict, will be a big fail for the world economy, the climate, and especially for the least advantaged among us. It’s f—ing insane.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

1 of 10/ ROCE vs Well IRRs and the Path Back for Old Energy Since the shale revolution, there is a massive disconnect between promised well-level IRRs and actual, corporate-level returns on capital employed (ROCE) for the oil industry.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

Phew…was starting to worry about possible US LNG over supply later this decade. I am sure Europeans can easily secure replacement cargoes from Qatar and other foreign exporters. And developing Asia has plenty of coal and probably wasn’t going to pay up anyways. So it’s a much

Stephen Stapczynski

@SStapczynski

8 months

THE US TO PAUSES APPROVALS OF NEW LNG EXPORT PLANTS 🇺🇸 🚨 ⚠️ The Biden administration will expand evaluation of LNG projects to consider impact on climate change, which will delay approvals 🚢 The new rules could derail over a dozen proposed LNG plants

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

and with last year’s “windfall”, O&G industry returns on capital have now averaged 5% over prior 10 years up from 3% for the 10 years ending 2021. Of course the IEA knows this, as there are smart people working there….but the poor long-term profitability doesn’t fit the

International Energy Agency

@IEA

1 year

The oil & gas industry had a record cash windfall in 2022 due to high fuel prices But most of this has gone to dividends, share buybacks & debt repayment, rather than into energy investments. Only a small fraction has been spent on clean technologies 👉

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

I’ve got the over. I’d set the line at 2060. (timing Africa growth the key variable to me)

Fatih Birol

@fbirol

1 year

In my op-ed in today's @FT , a historic moment for the global energy sector Just with today's policy settings alone, @IEA projects demand for each of oil, gas & coal is set to peak this decade – driven by the striking rise of clean tech like solar & EVs, and economic shifts in 🇨🇳

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 months

OPEC, the new voice of reason!?!?!

OPEC

@OPECSecretariat

4 months

Peak oil demand not on the horizon NEW #OPEC SG article ➡️

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

Oil rig count is unustainably low. Yes, shut-ins/DUCs will come back. But no way 206 oil rigs including 141 in Permian works in any GDP recovery scenario. Shale supply will fall off a cliff at current rig counts. #OOTT

Baker Hughes

@bakerhughesco

4 years

U.S. #RigCount is down 17 to 284, with #oil rigs down 16 to 206, #natgas rigs down 1 to 76. /bit.ly/2LinKiY #OOTT #ONGT

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

PS/ This is not a rebel song or a political post. This is a Twitter opinion, undoubtedly conflicted and surely wrong, on why I think oil prices have rallied. So relax, and save the hate for a future tweet about structural ROCE improvements.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

Signs of sanity: great to see at least some common sense starting to prevail over mis-guided ideology… FT: Five major insurers quit industry net zero initiative

Lloyd’s and five big insurers quit sector’s net-zero initiative

Alliance members fear antitrust lawsuits and have faced criticism from US Republican politicians

www.ft.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

Weekend reading: Great history of Frank Phillips, founder of Philips Petroleum. Interesting history with The Osage. And he was a banker, not just an oil man!

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

9 months

Congratulations Canada 🇨🇦 🎉🇨🇦!

Anas Alhajji

@anasalhajji

9 months

Great News: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Trans Mountain oil pipeline change approved by Canadian regulator #Canada #Alberta #Oil

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

5/ Why would the US and Canada not want to maximize local oil supply while taking steps to reduce oil-based transport demand. Banning SUVs + reforming CAFE will do far more than any policy directed at local oil supply or even what look like poorly designed EV tax credits.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

9 months

Feeling bearish oil/commodities at the start of 2024? Concerned about OPEC flooding the market or too much shale? Good to get a dose of Jeff Currie on @Smarter_Markets with @DavidVGreely . Great pod to start 2024.

Smarter Markets

@Smarter_Markets

9 months

"When it doesn’t cost much, everybody’s willing to be green." #GoldmanSachs Partner Alumnus #JeffCurrie kicks off our first installment of Setting Course, sharing his macro outlook on 2024 #commodities markets — and what's in store for the year ahead.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

4/ But now some political leaders in Canada and the US want to repeat that mistake with crude oil and natural gas? At least in Coal, there are many viable power gen alternatives that are cleaner and similarly (or less) expensive than coal. That is not true with transport fuels.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

Is Saudi shifting from trying to manage front end of curve via near term cuts to supporting long-dated oil, which has barely moved since 2015?

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

8 months

BREAKING: In a huge U-turn, Saudi Arabia abandons its plan to boost the oil production capacity of state-owned Aramco to 13m b/d (from 12m b/d currently) | #OOTT #SaudiArabia

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

1 of 7/ Metaverse Meets Universe @SuperSpiked . As happens every 20-30 years or so, the world is structurally short deliverable oil, refined products, and natural gas/LNG. We are in need of a major CAPEX cycle that exactly no one wants.

Metaverse Meets Universe: The Coming Return of Terminal Value to Traditional Energy

Attracting Capital Flow Back to Traditional Energy, Post #2

arjunmurti.substack.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

13/ Global bureaucrats have also created an accounting fiction called “Scope 3”, which means we can blame oil companies for your use of their product to live a modern lifestyle.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

seriously. Canada oil > Venezuela (current gov't) oil. It's not a close call.

Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )

@chigrl

2 years

If only there were a reliable friendly ally to the North that we could import more heavy crude from via a pipeline (that was cancelled)

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 8/ Dumb Calls I Made as a Street Analyst, Post #1 I have written two deep dive posts about applying an ROCE framework to the energy sector. Here is a practical example using a terrible call I made on OXY post its $3.6 bn March 2000 Altura Energy (Permian Basin) acquisition.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

Nice job by Vanguard CEO…a rare voice of reason…

Vanguard chief defends decision to pull asset manager out of climate alliance

Champion of low-cost trackers warns against expecting superior returns from ESG funds and alternative strategies

www.ft.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

So rapid EV adoption is going to come from NKLA? no. QS? unlikely. RIDE? Nope. TSLA? Love my Model 3 & S but G seems to be an issue. So traditional Auto OEMs are going to drive a rapid switch from ICE to EV? Come on. People need affordable, reliable transport, not hype.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

9 months

@ericnuttall Indeed. Saudi has never, ever, sustained over 10.5 mn b/d. Doesn't mean with CAPEX they couldn't ultimately produce more, but is immediately deliverable spare capacity really much more than 1.5 mn b/d? I've never understood the willingness to give credit for declared capacity.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

2 of 7/ Europe. - The risk of de-industrialization and perhaps an inevitable resumption of Russia pipeline gas creates downward risk to most long-term LNG demand forecasts for Europe. - The occasional cold winter might provide a short-term respite. - Europe is not a region in

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

Congratulations and best wishes to my friend and former colleague Jeff Currie.

Bloomberg

@business

1 year

Jeff Currie, the prominent commodities analyst known for making bold — often bullish — pronouncements, is leaving Goldman Sachs after almost 30 years

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 10/ Ill-advised energy transition policies increase geopolitical risks This week’s post is an introduction of a geopolitical risk framework for the energy transition.

Bedlam in Belgium: Ill-advised energy transition policies increase geopolitical risks

Introduction of a geopolitical risk framework for the energy transition

arjunmurti.substack.com

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

PS2/ I am not a political person. I hate US cable news...all channels. I am a Wall Street analyst that has studied energy markets for 30 years. I am neither anti-environmentalist nor pro-fossil fuels per se. I do care about elevating the issue of energy poverty reduction.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 6/ Excellent essay by @jasonbordoff . In my words, killing Big Oil does not kill society’s desire to drive, fly, trade, conduct business, and aspire for middle class+ lifestyles.

Foreign Policy

@ForeignPolicy

3 years

Until oil demand starts falling, production will simply shift to other producers, writes @JasonBordoff .

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

1 of 6/ OPEC+, Climate, and N. America Oil & Gas The weekend noise around OPEC+ highlights the critical importance of a healthy N. America oil & gas industry, without which the world is unlikely to alleviate energy poverty while also addressing climate change. Some questions:

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

You are so right @AmyJaffeenergy ! They should have definitely spent on offshore wind …umm…resi solar…err…EV charging… …. …. Actually divis and buybacks may not have been so bad. @Bob_McNally @liamdenning

Amy Myers Jaffe

@AmyJaffeenergy

1 year

Perhaps repeating cyclical oil profits linked to war and geopolitics is not actually a praiseworthy lasting corporate strategy @ArjunNMurti @liamdenning @malek_chris @Bob_McNally

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

1 of 7/ I am old enough to remember making a "why does Shell trade at such a discount to Exxon" call in the 1990s and 2000s...long before this era of Climate/ESG virtue signaling began. In prior era, the reasons included:

FT Energy

@ftenergy

1 year

Shell chief sets ‘ruthless’ new course to catch up with US rivals

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

I didn’t have space for a few more: Do Canadian Oils support hacking of US businesses? Isn’t Canada more open to immigration/refugees than most other places? Doesn’t Canada have a CO2 price? Sorry for now ranting...just an American who respects and appreciates Canadian Oils.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

"GFANZ" strikes again as Barclays exits the financing of 80% of world energy supply. As a private co, it is their choice. Message to other 7 billion people on Earth not amongst the Lucky 1 Billion of Us: Create your own banks and financing vehicles.

Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander

@NYCComptroller

8 months

Barclays’ commitment to phase out fossil fuel financing is a step in the right direction. Now it’s critical that U.S. banks follow suit. The energy transition urgently requires the biggest financial institutions to do their part.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

Question: I thought on LCOE wind is among the lowest cost forms of power gen...why would it require lobbying, financial engineering, and regulatory arbitrage to get back on its feet? Will that work in the developing world where unmet energy needs are massive?

Akshat Rathi

@AkshatRathi

8 months

Wind industry is getting back on its feet. What did it learn? @davidfickling says "The future of energy is going to have to be every bit as good as its past at using lobbying, financial engineering, and regulatory arbitrage to its private benefit."

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

6/ Now, OPEC+ doesn’t want to admit it but they are nearly back to full production. They want us to think they have more oil ready to go so we’ll keep calling them, and protecting key countries.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

7 of 7/ Is there any part of the climate argument to the pause you think makes sense? - In aggregate, no, not when I am unconvinced that the environmental, climate, and labor track record in most foreign countries is better than ours. - That said, I am on record of agreeing

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

6/ Demonizing the oil & gas industry will fail to reduce energy poverty, is negative for energy security, and will ensure that whatever climate progress that could occur will get pushed further to the right. The world needs a healthy and responsible N American oil & gas industry.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

Interesting take by @JasonBordoff @ColumbiaUEnergy on Saudi emerging as an unlikely winner of oil market chaos via @ForeignPolicy | The 2020 Oil Crash’s Unlikely Winner: Saudi Arabia:

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

1 of 5/ The right and wrong lesson’s from coal’s global resilience Coal demand is at an all-time high globally, driven by China, India, and other developing areas that include the other 5-7 billion not in Europe or the US. Coal us has been in terminal decline in the US and EU.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

2/ Coal demand reached an all-time high in 2022 driven by China and non-OECD demand. You can love or hate or not care…to me, it simply shows how hard it it is to kill massive, low cost, reliable, and secure energy resources.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

4 of 7/ LNG country competitors. - Less US LNG is a win for Russia, Qatar, possibly Saudi Arabia (future LNG supplier?), Iran + Venezuela (if they ever get their acts together), and many other foreign countries with undeveloped, low-cost natural gas. - Does anyone have data on

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

1/ $XLE Resurrection: So Far, So Good…So What! To get out of this energy transition quagmire, capital desperately needs to flow back to traditional energy. Yes, it’s been a big rally off trough. But we are no where near to solving tight markets absent forced recessions.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

7 months

WEEKEND LISTENING. A lot of great content this week...3 of my faves: (1) Paul Sankey @crudegusher on @JackFarley96 's @ForwardGuidance pod. Paul is always interesting on oil macro and company outlooks. Best part is toward the end on $NVDA GPU demand being a "Phoenix" worth of

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

2 years

1/ @SuperSpiked looks at the bubble stock cycle, EV hockey stick adoption forecasts, and what I expect will be a growing recognition that oil demand is not going to structurally decline any time soon. Oil demand resilience—>+ terminal value for traditional energy.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

3 years

12/ I am definitely not going to touch the 3rd rail topics of banning SUVs or taking any steps to moderate American oil demand. For this, the easy button is blaming evil Big Oil companies. That industry doesn’t even defend itself...easy pickings!

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

8 months

5 of 7/ Big vs small government and infrastructure obstructionism. - The last thing the USA needs (all citizens and all businesses) is more big government interference, red tape, and permit uncertainty. It's bad. - At a time we clearly need an "all of the above" energy supply

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

4 years

1/ Oil Macro/Equities and US Presidents Disclaimer: In choosing to engage on Twitter, I had vowed to avoid political commentary. I despise partisan politics. I believe this thread honors the spirit of my commitment to myself.

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arjun⚡️murti

@ArjunNMurti

1 year

I am a huge proponent of energy efficiency...but Africa as a region is using just 1.4 bbls of oil per capita, one-third the level of others in the developing world and just 10% of the levels of the rich world. Hope Africa avoids our mistakes on energy waste...but efficiency can't

Fatih Birol

@fbirol

1 year

Excellent discussion at the #AfricaClimateSummit23 about the vital role of #EnergyEfficiency in Africa's dynamic economic development – with 🇰🇪 Minister Davis Chirchir, 🇬🇭 Minister @MatthewOPrempeh , @_AfricanUnion Commissioner @HEDrAbouZeid & 🇵🇹 Sec of State Ana Fontoura Gouveia

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