The 3-year total return (April 16, 2021 - April 19, 2024) of $PBR.A is now higher than those of all members of magnificent 7. $XOM also beat every member but $NVDA.
Congratulations to $PBR boss
@jeanpaulprates
!
The CEO of $PXT just bought nearly 24,000 shares of stocks around the current price. The company also bought back and cancelled 400,000 shares in February (20k share per market day).
In an interview a few days ago, legendary international investor Marc Faber recommended $PBR (still cheap). Colombia (i.e. $EC) is his most favorite LatAm countries (because Brazil and Argentine have gone up). Hong Kong & China are other cheap markets.
GQG Partners LLC is the largest ADR shareholder of $EC and $PBR. Rajiv Jain, the founder and CIO of GQG Partners recently gave an interview with The Market NZZ. Here are some relevant sections on energy and energy stocks.
On the energy sector:
$EC & $PXT
In this week's interview,
@anasalhajji
told Macrovoice that the shortage (thus the elevated price) of medium sour crude will be permanent. It is great news for Colombia heavy crudes, esp., Vasconia crude which is very close to medium sour in quality. 1/3
The UBS analyst who had a target price of ~$6.8 for $PBR.A in March 2023 has become a big bull. Key points:
1) R43 for PETR4==> $16.5 for $PBR.A. R56 ==> $21.
2) $25 B dividend is ~$3.87/ADR or ~27% for $PBR.A (@$14.45) for 2024
3) Annual yield of ~20% for 2025.
In terms of 3-year total return (starting from February 12, 2021), $PBR.A beats the returns of 6 members of magnificent 7, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT and $TSLA. It lags $NVDA only.
$PBR & $PBR.A
“Nobody wants any shareholder to lose money,” Lula said Wednesday at a ceremony to swear in Chief Executive Officer Magda Chambriard. “If you invested, you are entitled to a return on your investment.”
@calvinfroedge
$EC's 2nd and 3rd installment each is worth ~$0.945 per ADR at the current COP/USD exchange rate. The dividend yield for these two installments is ~18%
$PBR and $PBR.A dividend payment for May 28, 2024 has been finalized. The total net pay is about $0.560832 per ADR share (after $0.005 dividend fee and 15% tax on interest earned).
Q1-24 numbers of $EC:
1. Produced more
2. Transported more
3. Refined more
4. However, much stronger COP hurts the numbers in USD slightly.
Full report here:
$PXT is the champion in terms of 5-year change in shares outstanding for Colombia based energy producers. If a company does not have any debt, pays a very good dividend, and has bought back ~1/3 of its shares back in 5 years, it has to be very profitable.
$PXT, $GPRK & $GTE
$EC's Q2 report shows strong demand of Colombia heavy crude. Daily average Brent in Q2-24 was ~$7.20 higher than Q2-23. $10.3 increase in crude basket implies the Discount of Colombia heavy crude to Brent has dropped ~$3.10 from that of a year ago.
@OlderandW
@investmish
@G_A_Wilson
The 2023 budget of Columbia government projects to receive COP 30 trillion dividend from $EC. The 88.5% government ownership implies the total dividend is around COP 33.9 trillion. $EC has 2.06 billion (ADR equivalent) shares. At 1 USD = ~ 4684 COP, the payout is ~$3.51/ADR
Estimated outstanding $PBR & $PBR.A dividends based on today's USD/BRL exchange rate, along with ex-dividend and payment dates. The Q1 dividend declared today is in green.
At the YE 2023, $PBR's proven (1P) reserves was 10.9 billion boe, which gives 1P RLI of 12.2 years. Note that 84% of reserves are liquid and 16% are gas. $PBR replaced 168% of the 2023 production.
QTD (09/15/2023), daily average Brent spot price ($83.87) is 7.4% higher than that of Q2 ($78.09). The July daily production rate of $PBR was ~7% higher than that of Q2. Its E&P revenue in Q3 will be ~15% higher. As some costs are fixed, the E&P FCF & profit will increase > 15%.
Positive implication on $EC, $FEC, $GPRK and $PXT from $GTE's earning report! The discounts of Colombia heavy crudes to Brent were down significantly in Q3 from Q2 (higher price increase than $8.09 change in Brent). Oil surtax is indexed to Brent but not to the heavy crude.
In last 4 year (from 02/01/2020 to 02/02/2024), the total return of $PBR.A is higher than 5 members of Magnificent 7. It only lagged behind of $NVDA and $TSLA.
@marketplunger1
@G_A_Wilson
@calvinfroedge
At today's USD/COP exchange rate, each of the $EC's October and December dividend installments is nearly $0.96 per ADR. If you bought it at today's closing price, the two installments give you 18.5% of yield in less than 6 months.
$EC, $FEC, $GTE & $PXT. At 5:20 time mark of this recent presentation at Peters & Co, $GTE mentioned that the discount of Colombian heavy oil to Brent has dropped from ~$18/bbl in Dec. to ~$6/bbl in early Sept. 1/2
While Q2 production rate of $PBR was down 2.8% sequentially from Q1, the average Brent price is 3.2% higher in Q2 ($85.03 vs. $81.85). The Q2 revenue of the E&P division in USD should be up ~1%. In BRL term, the Q2 revenue should be sequentially up ~6%.
@G_A_Wilson
It is very nice that $PBR has decided to retain the oil fields. In 1st 10 min of this interview, famous resource investor
@RealRickRule
explained why he is a shareholder of $PBR & $EC. He also sees the value in $PBR's RTM division & intellectual property.
Minimum WTI oil prices required for $PXT to sustain production and to sustain production with $C1.50 annual dividend are ~$41 (Brent ~ $45) and ~$50 (Brent ~$55), respectively. However, WTI at $50 for a few weeks will shut down most US shale production (chart from Peters & Co).
Comparison of total returns of oil majors from December 30, 2022 to December 29, 2023. Note that the return of $EC was based 3 dividend installments of $0.83/ADR (the actual instalments were $0.83, $0.97 and $1.01)
The incredible shrink of BRL (against USD) since Lula dismissed
@jeanpaulprates
.
Over 70% of $PBR's oil/fuel is sold inside Brazil. It is unlikely that a weak BRL is positive to the EPS of $PBR in terms of USD.
Item
#2
from $PBR press release today suggested that Q4 production rate was 2935Mboe/d, up by ~2% from Q3. The daily average Brent (USD/BRL) for Q3 and Q4 were $85.92 (4.8857) and $82.85 (4.9581), respectively. So, its Q4 E&P revenue in BRL should be similar to that of Q3.
@AAlsome1
@seethetrees1
@LOWO64
@G_A_Wilson
From a deep value stock, $PBR has turned in a stock of value + growth + currency hedge + EM leader. At this rate, it will also become a momentum stock in a few weeks. I just hope $PBR is a leading indicator of $EC.
@chrisinmontreal
Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal explained verey clearly why advocating for EV in the west is essentially to surrender the auto industry to Chinese, which will not happen. Here is a part of transcript (on page 3) of his interview with Macrovoice.
In November 2022, $CNOOC paid $1.9 B to $PBR to increase its share of Buzios field by another 5%. That transaction valued the 89% of $PBR's ownership at $34 B.
Imagine the volume with an area of 850,000,000 m^2 and a thickness up to 480 m (chart from
@BurggrabenH
)
$PBR.A is near historical high relative to PBR, largely because of the share buyback of $PBR.A by the company. Give $PBR some considerations if you are going to increase your position of Petrobras.
@calvinfroedge
Comparison of total returns (i.e. re-investing dividends) of $PBR.A with $XOM, $SHEL and $BP since October 2003 when $PBR.A started to trade on NYSE.
@sykeone
Not at all. For each ADR share that $JPM created, $JPM needs to buy 20 ordinary shares to back it up. As foreigners tend to buy the ADR share, the increase of ADR outstanding shows capital is flow into Colombia. $EC's shares outstanding have not changed since Nov. 2011
@AAlsome1
@G_A_Wilson
Agreed!
Many people (including me) have not given sufficient consideration of the dividend of $PBR.A on its return. On total return basis, $PBR.A has beaten $XOM since the pandemic low of March 2020. This chart was made 2 days ago.
WTI was up 3.8% while $XLE was down 2.2%. But Uncle Warren continued his purchasing of $OXY on Thursday, Friday and Monday (totals 2.94 M shares at an average price of ~$59.7). Once again, he is giving you a green light to buy your favorite oil stocks.
@Gugo907
The 2022 Revenue of $NVDA is $27 B. The Net Profit of $PBR is $36.6 B. However, the marketcap of $NVDA ($660 B) is more than 10 times of $PBR ($64.6 B).
@G_A_Wilson
@abadessenc
@calvinfroedge
@tottaway22
At today's closing price, $PBR's MC=$73.77B & EV = $111.35B. The 12-month trailing FCF = $40.12 B. EV/FCF=2.8. Basically, it takes just 2.8 years to use FCF to fully privatize $PBR, assuming an unchanged share price. Buyback is the most efficient way to allocate the capital!
$PBR, $PBR.A & Equatorial Margin.
That $PBR has refused Ibama's demand for additional study shows the company has the upper hand now. Environment minister Marina Silva will be forced out again if she does not issue exploration permits.
@G_A_Wilson
The daily average price of Brent was $77.83 and $85.92 for Q2 and Q3, respectively. So, a 9.1% production increase translates into ~20% revenue growth over Q2 for the E&P division. The sale volume of RTM division also went up 5.1%. I expect a Q3 dividend of over $0.50/ADR.
Like me, you probably dislike Lula for his dismissal of our great (ex-)CEO,
@jeanpaulprates
. But you have to give Lula some credit for his strong backing of $PBR to explore Equitorial Margin. If Marina Silva continues to block it, she will be out just like 2008.
The ADR shares of $EC has increased from 55.0 M shares on October 2, 2023 (left) to today's 59.2 M shares (right). There are about 236 M (ADR equivalent) shares in float. So, the ADR shares amounts to ~25% of the float.
The August 27 payout (in third row) to $PBR and $PBR.A has been finalized. The net payout is $0.157423 per ADR share. The detail break-down is summarized in the green (third) row.
@G_A_Wilson
$3.6 B payout for Q4 is $0.55/ADR. A regular payout of $12.2 B gives $1.88/ADR ordinary dividend in 2024. Finally, $7.1 B extraordinary dividend, if declared, will add another $1.09/ADR.
RBC's comparative valuations of $PXT and other SMID Canadian O&G producers at Brent future strip of $79.53 and $74.77 for 2024 and 2025, respectively. $PXT is clear cheaper than many of its peers in term of P/PDP_NAV, MC/CF and EV/DACF.
Another indicator of undervaluation of $PXT share price-- a great chart from
@rockcreekfreak
who shows market gives 28% discount rate to its PDP reserves, which is the highest among Canada listed O&G companies.
With Canadian energy reserve reports and year-end financials trickling out, I took a look to see what discount rate the market is pricing in for various TSX-listed heavy oil exposed equities at current share prices.
When a reserve report is created, the third party firm will
@KingKong9888
If a sector is already very depressed, it is hard to crash from the depressed level, short of an unusual event such as pandemic lock down. A 100x more leverage than today means the miners will be at very high elevated level.
Brave investors can step up risk little bit by moving into $EC (left chart) and $PBR.A (right chart), which provide FCF/MC yield of 27% and 33%. And enjoy much higher dividends.
$PXT has reached agreement with local government and local community that allows it resume operation in Arauca. Based on the agreement shown below, it appears that each party expects that Arauca field will be a big one.
@G_A_Wilson
@distressedbr
Very interesting observation of Will Kennedy, Senior Executive Editor for Energy and Commodities of Bloomberg, on $PBR and $PBR.A:
The benefit of $4.4/bbl gain in differential is greater than that of $4.4 gain in Brent !
The shortage of medium sour has made Vitol, an oil trader, to offer $GRPK small incentives to secure the Vasconia crude.
Note that $PXT owns 55% of LLA-34. 3/3
Uncle Warren continues to buy $OXY, picking up another 1.75 M shares of $OXY during the past 3 days at price slightly over $60. He is probably saying that it is okay to buy your favorite oil stocks.
@FordWealth
The 2nd and 3rd dividend installment of $EC to be paid in Oct. and Dec., at the current USD/COP exchange rate, is ~$0.97 each. It is ~18% yield in less than 6 months. The dividend of 2024, based on earnings of 2023, will probably be ~$1.30 or ~30% yield in 18 months.
@theyhatemetoo
@calvinfroedge
The price of heavy sour crudes (that kind sold by $EC and others) has increased more than WTI or Brent since the cut by Saudi Arabia
@G_A_Wilson
Dave Iben, a well-known deep value investor and the founder and CIO of Kopernik Global Investors, bought $PBR in 2015 and sold it in next 3-4 years. It looks like he is back in $PBR again.
@spybear180
@InvestRoiss
@calvinfroedge
Rick Rule's approach -- buy major producers of a commodity, necessary for civilization, when it trades below the full cycle production cost (i.e when the commodity segment is in liquidation). I would think PGM and nickel are probably in liquidation now.
@G_A_Wilson
It is an entirely new position by an EM fund. I presume some other EM fund not having $EC will follow. Once the market capitalization reaches certain level, $EC will probably return to MSCI index and reverse the removal of last November (and force some index fund buying).
@G_A_Wilson
Here are my estimates of the outstanding dividend based on today's USD/BRL exchange rate. The interest based on SLIC rate for the payments in November and December need to be added when disclosed. The first two payments are from Q1 while the last two are from Q2.
@G_A_Wilson
When $PBR.A reaches $29 (which corresponds ~$32 for $PBR), the Captain
@LOWO64
will roll out his $PBR.A. So, Jefferies essentially said that Captain needs to have his train ready in about a year.
In Q1 report, $EC noticed that it made $4.4/bbl gain in crude differentials. The gains in crude differentials are not subject to surtax which is indexed to 10-year average of Brent. The great majority of oil produced by $PXT is Vasconia crude. 2/3
@G_A_Wilson
I added a little $EC at $11.90 by using the dividends I collected in the past 2 weeks. ~$0.98 per share dividend is coming in less than 3 weeks.
@G_A_Wilson
A small increase from the initially declared amount of R0.6726735. $JPM has not posted the USD amount yet. But it should be close to $0.268/ADR after the fee.
If you want to get Colombia exposure beyond $EC, $GXG, a Colombia country fund with an asset of $44 M, is a possible choice. It holds ~25% of $CIB and ~14% of $EC, along with other smaller companies. As its asset grows, the weight of smaller companies will presumably increase.
@calvinfroedge
@churnerofmarket
Do you know that $PBR.A has out-performed 5 of the magnificent 7 in last 4 years (from February 1, 2020 to February 2, 2024)?
@seethetrees1
@dividendology
Indeed, $EC paid ~$0.83 per share dividend in early May. The next two payments in October and December each is about $0.97 at the present USD/COP exchange rate:
$PBR's production rate in Q3 up 7.8% from Q2. Daily average price of Brent in Q2 and Q3 are $77.83 and $85.92, respectively. The revenue of E&P division in Q3 should be up about 19% from Q2.
If $PBR finds oil in Equatorial Margin, it can take up to 2032 to start production.
"You present a development plan, which is how you are going to do everything in detail in the next 35 or 40 years..."
Does $PBR expect the recoverable oil sufficient for 25-30 yrs production?