Tonyforever Profile
Tonyforever

@Tonyforever2003

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Joined July 2022
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
4 months
The 3-year total return (April 16, 2021 - April 19, 2024) of $PBR.A is now higher than those of all members of magnificent 7. $XOM also beat every member but $NVDA. Congratulations to $PBR boss @jeanpaulprates !
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
The CEO of $PXT just bought nearly 24,000 shares of stocks around the current price. The company also bought back and cancelled 400,000 shares in February (20k share per market day).
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
8 months
In an interview a few days ago, legendary international investor Marc Faber recommended $PBR (still cheap). Colombia (i.e. $EC) is his most favorite LatAm countries (because Brazil and Argentine have gone up). Hong Kong & China are other cheap markets.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
GQG Partners LLC is the largest ADR shareholder of $EC and $PBR. Rajiv Jain, the founder and CIO of GQG Partners recently gave an interview with The Market NZZ. Here are some relevant sections on energy and energy stocks. On the energy sector:
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
$PBR & $PBR.A. Slide deck inks for investor presentation of 'DEEP DRIVE PETROBRAS' Day 1: Day 2:
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
$EC & $PXT In this week's interview, @anasalhajji told Macrovoice that the shortage (thus the elevated price) of medium sour crude will be permanent. It is great news for Colombia heavy crudes, esp., Vasconia crude which is very close to medium sour in quality. 1/3
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
It is great that @jeanpaulprates will remain as the CEO $PBR.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
The UBS analyst who had a target price of ~$6.8 for $PBR.A in March 2023 has become a big bull. Key points: 1) R43 for PETR4==> $16.5 for $PBR.A. R56 ==> $21. 2) $25 B dividend is ~$3.87/ADR or ~27% for $PBR.A (@$14.45) for 2024 3) Annual yield of ~20% for 2025.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@LOWO64 @saifedean @LynAldenContact As @fleckcap said, democracy with a fiat currency is (eventually) a highway for inflation.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
In terms of 3-year total return (starting from February 12, 2021), $PBR.A beats the returns of 6 members of magnificent 7, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT and $TSLA. It lags $NVDA only.
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@jeanpaulprates
Jean Paul Prates
7 months
SEXTOU SEM RECORDE? 🔍 Não! E não é déjà vu! 𝗣𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗿𝗮́𝘀 𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗼 𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗼 𝗱𝗮 𝘀𝘂𝗮 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼́𝗿𝗶𝗮 𝗲𝗺 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗶𝘀: 𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼, 𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗼𝘂 𝗥$ 𝟱𝟲𝟴 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗵𝗼̃𝗲𝘀.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
2 months
$PBR & $PBR.A “Nobody wants any shareholder to lose money,” Lula said Wednesday at a ceremony to swear in Chief Executive Officer Magda Chambriard. “If you invested, you are entitled to a return on your investment.”
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@calvinfroedge $EC's 2nd and 3rd installment each is worth ~$0.945 per ADR at the current COP/USD exchange rate. The dividend yield for these two installments is ~18%
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
$PBR and $PBR.A dividend payment for May 28, 2024 has been finalized. The total net pay is about $0.560832 per ADR share (after $0.005 dividend fee and 15% tax on interest earned).
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
4 months
Q1-24 numbers of $EC: 1. Produced more 2. Transported more 3. Refined more 4. However, much stronger COP hurts the numbers in USD slightly. Full report here:
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
$PXT is the champion in terms of 5-year change in shares outstanding for Colombia based energy producers. If a company does not have any debt, pays a very good dividend, and has bought back ~1/3 of its shares back in 5 years, it has to be very profitable.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
4-year total return (03/27/2020-03/28/2024) - $PBR.A vs magnificent 7. Only $NVDA has a higher return than $PBR.A
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
17 days
$PXT, $GPRK & $GTE $EC's Q2 report shows strong demand of Colombia heavy crude. Daily average Brent in Q2-24 was ~$7.20 higher than Q2-23. $10.3 increase in crude basket implies the Discount of Colombia heavy crude to Brent has dropped ~$3.10 from that of a year ago.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
The CEO of $PXT, Imad Mohsen, bought 9500 shares again today at C$21.10.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
An update of 3-year total return (02/19/2021 - 02/20/2024). $PBR.A vs Magnificent 7. $PBR.A (342.9%) is getting close to $NVDA (366.6%)
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
2 years
@OlderandW @investmish @G_A_Wilson The 2023 budget of Columbia government projects to receive COP 30 trillion dividend from $EC. The 88.5% government ownership implies the total dividend is around COP 33.9 trillion. $EC has 2.06 billion (ADR equivalent) shares. At 1 USD = ~ 4684 COP, the payout is ~$3.51/ADR
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
11 days
Recent weakness of USD has made the outstanding dividends of $PBR & $PBR.A higher in USD. Here is an estimate based on today's USD/BRL exchange rate.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
4 months
Estimated outstanding $PBR & $PBR.A dividends based on today's USD/BRL exchange rate, along with ex-dividend and payment dates. The Q1 dividend declared today is in green.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
At the YE 2023, $PBR's proven (1P) reserves was 10.9 billion boe, which gives 1P RLI of 12.2 years. Note that 84% of reserves are liquid and 16% are gas. $PBR replaced 168% of the 2023 production.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
QTD (09/15/2023), daily average Brent spot price ($83.87) is 7.4% higher than that of Q2 ($78.09). The July daily production rate of $PBR was ~7% higher than that of Q2. Its E&P revenue in Q3 will be ~15% higher. As some costs are fixed, the E&P FCF & profit will increase > 15%.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
4 months
It looks like 2.4 million ADR shares of $EC have been created since April 2, 2024.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
Positive implication on $EC, $FEC, $GPRK and $PXT from $GTE's earning report! The discounts of Colombia heavy crudes to Brent were down significantly in Q3 from Q2 (higher price increase than $8.09 change in Brent). Oil surtax is indexed to Brent but not to the heavy crude.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
In last 4 year (from 02/01/2020 to 02/02/2024), the total return of $PBR.A is higher than 5 members of Magnificent 7. It only lagged behind of $NVDA and $TSLA.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@marketplunger1 @G_A_Wilson @calvinfroedge At today's USD/COP exchange rate, each of the $EC's October and December dividend installments is nearly $0.96 per ADR. If you bought it at today's closing price, the two installments give you 18.5% of yield in less than 6 months.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
11 months
$EC, $FEC, $GTE & $PXT. At 5:20 time mark of this recent presentation at Peters & Co, $GTE mentioned that the discount of Colombian heavy oil to Brent has dropped from ~$18/bbl in Dec. to ~$6/bbl in early Sept. 1/2
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 month
While Q2 production rate of $PBR was down 2.8% sequentially from Q1, the average Brent price is 3.2% higher in Q2 ($85.03 vs. $81.85). The Q2 revenue of the E&P division in USD should be up ~1%. In BRL term, the Q2 revenue should be sequentially up ~6%.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
Comparison of P/E and P/FCF of $PBR.A with other IOCs.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@G_A_Wilson It is very nice that $PBR has decided to retain the oil fields. In 1st 10 min of this interview, famous resource investor @RealRickRule explained why he is a shareholder of $PBR & $EC. He also sees the value in $PBR's RTM division & intellectual property.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
9 days
@Nostre_damus @U308Uranium He was selling on Monday, August 19.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
Minimum WTI oil prices required for $PXT to sustain production and to sustain production with $C1.50 annual dividend are ~$41 (Brent ~ $45) and ~$50 (Brent ~$55), respectively. However, WTI at $50 for a few weeks will shut down most US shale production (chart from Peters & Co).
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
8 months
Comparison of total returns of oil majors from December 30, 2022 to December 29, 2023. Note that the return of $EC was based 3 dividend installments of $0.83/ADR (the actual instalments were $0.83, $0.97 and $1.01)
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
2 months
The incredible shrink of BRL (against USD) since Lula dismissed @jeanpaulprates . Over 70% of $PBR's oil/fuel is sold inside Brazil. It is unlikely that a weak BRL is positive to the EPS of $PBR in terms of USD.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
Item #2 from $PBR press release today suggested that Q4 production rate was 2935Mboe/d, up by ~2% from Q3. The daily average Brent (USD/BRL) for Q3 and Q4 were $85.92 (4.8857) and $82.85 (4.9581), respectively. So, its Q4 E&P revenue in BRL should be similar to that of Q3.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@AAlsome1 @seethetrees1 @LOWO64 @G_A_Wilson From a deep value stock, $PBR has turned in a stock of value + growth + currency hedge + EM leader. At this rate, it will also become a momentum stock in a few weeks. I just hope $PBR is a leading indicator of $EC.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
@chrisinmontreal Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal explained verey clearly why advocating for EV in the west is essentially to surrender the auto industry to Chinese, which will not happen. Here is a part of transcript (on page 3) of his interview with Macrovoice.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
8 months
In November 2022, $CNOOC paid $1.9 B to $PBR to increase its share of Buzios field by another 5%. That transaction valued the 89% of $PBR's ownership at $34 B. Imagine the volume with an area of 850,000,000 m^2 and a thickness up to 480 m (chart from @BurggrabenH )
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
$PBR.A is near historical high relative to PBR, largely because of the share buyback of $PBR.A by the company. Give $PBR some considerations if you are going to increase your position of Petrobras.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@G_A_Wilson Just in case you missed it, this is 2nd time $PBR has hiked fuel prices under its new policy.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@seethetrees1 The 2nd and 3rd dividend installments $EC are knocking $1.02 now.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@calvinfroedge Comparison of total returns (i.e. re-investing dividends) of $PBR.A with $XOM, $SHEL and $BP since October 2003 when $PBR.A started to trade on NYSE.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
4 months
@sykeone Not at all. For each ADR share that $JPM created, $JPM needs to buy 20 ordinary shares to back it up. As foreigners tend to buy the ADR share, the increase of ADR outstanding shows capital is flow into Colombia. $EC's shares outstanding have not changed since Nov. 2011
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@AAlsome1 @G_A_Wilson Agreed! Many people (including me) have not given sufficient consideration of the dividend of $PBR.A on its return. On total return basis, $PBR.A has beaten $XOM since the pandemic low of March 2020. This chart was made 2 days ago.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
2 months
WTI was up 3.8% while $XLE was down 2.2%. But Uncle Warren continued his purchasing of $OXY on Thursday, Friday and Monday (totals 2.94 M shares at an average price of ~$59.7). Once again, he is giving you a green light to buy your favorite oil stocks.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@Gugo907 The 2022 Revenue of $NVDA is $27 B. The Net Profit of $PBR is $36.6 B. However, the marketcap of $NVDA ($660 B) is more than 10 times of $PBR ($64.6 B).
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@G_A_Wilson @abadessenc @calvinfroedge @tottaway22 At today's closing price, $PBR's MC=$73.77B & EV = $111.35B. The 12-month trailing FCF = $40.12 B. EV/FCF=2.8. Basically, it takes just 2.8 years to use FCF to fully privatize $PBR, assuming an unchanged share price. Buyback is the most efficient way to allocate the capital!
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
@calvinfroedge From Warrent Buffett's 1979 letter to BRK shareholders ()
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
2 months
$PBR, $PBR.A & Equatorial Margin. That $PBR has refused Ibama's demand for additional study shows the company has the upper hand now. Environment minister Marina Silva will be forced out again if she does not issue exploration permits.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
@G_A_Wilson The daily average price of Brent was $77.83 and $85.92 for Q2 and Q3, respectively. So, a 9.1% production increase translates into ~20% revenue growth over Q2 for the E&P division. The sale volume of RTM division also went up 5.1%. I expect a Q3 dividend of over $0.50/ADR.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
Like me, you probably dislike Lula for his dismissal of our great (ex-)CEO, @jeanpaulprates . But you have to give Lula some credit for his strong backing of $PBR to explore Equitorial Margin. If Marina Silva continues to block it, she will be out just like 2008.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
The ADR shares of $EC has increased from 55.0 M shares on October 2, 2023 (left) to today's 59.2 M shares (right). There are about 236 M (ADR equivalent) shares in float. So, the ADR shares amounts to ~25% of the float.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
9 days
The August 27 payout (in third row) to $PBR and $PBR.A has been finalized. The net payout is $0.157423 per ADR share. The detail break-down is summarized in the green (third) row.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
@jeanpaulprates Total Return of $PBR.A from December 31, 2022 to May 13, 2024, when @jeanpaulprates was in charge.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
@G_A_Wilson $3.6 B payout for Q4 is $0.55/ADR. A regular payout of $12.2 B gives $1.88/ADR ordinary dividend in 2024. Finally, $7.1 B extraordinary dividend, if declared, will add another $1.09/ADR.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
@G_A_Wilson This guy had a target price of ~$6.75 for $PBR.A about a year ago.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
RBC's comparative valuations of $PXT and other SMID Canadian O&G producers at Brent future strip of $79.53 and $74.77 for 2024 and 2025, respectively. $PXT is clear cheaper than many of its peers in term of P/PDP_NAV, MC/CF and EV/DACF.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
Another indicator of undervaluation of $PXT share price-- a great chart from @rockcreekfreak who shows market gives 28% discount rate to its PDP reserves, which is the highest among Canada listed O&G companies.
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@rockcreekfreak
Rock Creek Freak
6 months
With Canadian energy reserve reports and year-end financials trickling out, I took a look to see what discount rate the market is pricing in for various TSX-listed heavy oil exposed equities at current share prices. When a reserve report is created, the third party firm will
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
Compare the P/E of $EC, $PBR.A & $XOM with that of MSCI World Energy Sector (6.43 as July 19)
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
4-year total returns (03/12/2020-03/12/2024) of $PBR.A vs magnificent 7. Only $NVDA beats $PBR.A.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
3 (left) and 4 (right) year total returns of $PBR.A vs magnificent 7. Except for $NVDA, $PBR.A left the other 6 members in dust!
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
@KingKong9888 If a sector is already very depressed, it is hard to crash from the depressed level, short of an unusual event such as pandemic lock down. A 100x more leverage than today means the miners will be at very high elevated level.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
9 months
December 22 dividend payment of $PBR and $PBR.A has been finalized. The net amount is 0.2272023 per ADR
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
17 days
@G_A_Wilson $PBR reported ROCE of 9.8% for the first half of 2024. $EC's ROACE (Return on Average Capital Employed) is 13% for the same period.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
Brave investors can step up risk little bit by moving into $EC (left chart) and $PBR.A (right chart), which provide FCF/MC yield of 27% and 33%. And enjoy much higher dividends.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
$PXT has reached agreement with local government and local community that allows it resume operation in Arauca. Based on the agreement shown below, it appears that each party expects that Arauca field will be a big one.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@G_A_Wilson @distressedbr Very interesting observation of Will Kennedy, Senior Executive Editor for Energy and Commodities of Bloomberg, on $PBR and $PBR.A:
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
The benefit of $4.4/bbl gain in differential is greater than that of $4.4 gain in Brent ! The shortage of medium sour has made Vitol, an oil trader, to offer $GRPK small incentives to secure the Vasconia crude. Note that $PXT owns 55% of LLA-34. 3/3
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
Uncle Warren continues to buy $OXY, picking up another 1.75 M shares of $OXY during the past 3 days at price slightly over $60. He is probably saying that it is okay to buy your favorite oil stocks.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
@SheDrills Don't forget dividend! $PBR.A has the highest 5-year total return.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@FordWealth The 2nd and 3rd dividend installment of $EC to be paid in Oct. and Dec., at the current USD/COP exchange rate, is ~$0.97 each. It is ~18% yield in less than 6 months. The dividend of 2024, based on earnings of 2023, will probably be ~$1.30 or ~30% yield in 18 months.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@theyhatemetoo @calvinfroedge The price of heavy sour crudes (that kind sold by $EC and others) has increased more than WTI or Brent since the cut by Saudi Arabia
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@G_A_Wilson Dave Iben, a well-known deep value investor and the founder and CIO of Kopernik Global Investors, bought $PBR in 2015 and sold it in next 3-4 years. It looks like he is back in $PBR again.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
6 months
@spybear180 @InvestRoiss @calvinfroedge Rick Rule's approach -- buy major producers of a commodity, necessary for civilization, when it trades below the full cycle production cost (i.e when the commodity segment is in liquidation). I would think PGM and nickel are probably in liquidation now.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
11 months
@G_A_Wilson It is an entirely new position by an EM fund. I presume some other EM fund not having $EC will follow. Once the market capitalization reaches certain level, $EC will probably return to MSCI index and reverse the removal of last November (and force some index fund buying).
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
21 days
@G_A_Wilson Here are my estimates of the outstanding dividend based on today's USD/BRL exchange rate. The interest based on SLIC rate for the payments in November and December need to be added when disclosed. The first two payments are from Q1 while the last two are from Q2.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
8 months
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
11 months
@G_A_Wilson When $PBR.A reaches $29 (which corresponds ~$32 for $PBR), the Captain @LOWO64 will roll out his $PBR.A. So, Jefferies essentially said that Captain needs to have his train ready in about a year.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
In Q1 report, $EC noticed that it made $4.4/bbl gain in crude differentials. The gains in crude differentials are not subject to surtax which is indexed to 10-year average of Brent. The great majority of oil produced by $PXT is Vasconia crude. 2/3
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@G_A_Wilson I added a little $EC at $11.90 by using the dividends I collected in the past 2 weeks. ~$0.98 per share dividend is coming in less than 3 weeks.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
@G_A_Wilson A small increase from the initially declared amount of R0.6726735. $JPM has not posted the USD amount yet. But it should be close to $0.268/ADR after the fee.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
3 months
@jeanpaulprates Thank you for everything you have done as the CEO of $PBR.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
8 months
If you want to get Colombia exposure beyond $EC, $GXG, a Colombia country fund with an asset of $44 M, is a possible choice. It holds ~25% of $CIB and ~14% of $EC, along with other smaller companies. As its asset grows, the weight of smaller companies will presumably increase.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@calvinfroedge But, but, but -- are you sure that Lula will not take your dividend away?
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
Note that $PBR was the 7th largest company in the world by market capitalization in 2010.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
7 months
@calvinfroedge @churnerofmarket Do you know that $PBR.A has out-performed 5 of the magnificent 7 in last 4 years (from February 1, 2020 to February 2, 2024)?
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@seethetrees1 @dividendology Indeed, $EC paid ~$0.83 per share dividend in early May. The next two payments in October and December each is about $0.97 at the present USD/COP exchange rate:
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
@TC_TC_TC1 It looks like the CFO of $PBR has reinstated the possibility of 1). @G_A_Wilson @LOWO64 @nyetjgoldblum
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
10 months
$EC Q3 report is out.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
@GayKhalDrogo @dash_eats Dividend of $EC and $PBR.A based on today's exchange rates.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 month
@htsfhickey 10-year chart of $GDX shares outstanding.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
1 year
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
11 months
$PBR's production rate in Q3 up 7.8% from Q2. Daily average price of Brent in Q2 and Q3 are $77.83 and $85.92, respectively. The revenue of E&P division in Q3 should be up about 19% from Q2.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
5 months
@G_A_Wilson Meeting canceled.
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@Tonyforever2003
Tonyforever
8 months
If $PBR finds oil in Equatorial Margin, it can take up to 2032 to start production. "You present a development plan, which is how you are going to do everything in detail in the next 35 or 40 years..." Does $PBR expect the recoverable oil sufficient for 25-30 yrs production?
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