Dan Tsubouchi @Energy_Tidbits Twitter profile

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Ouch. Saudi reminds US it has gasoline shortage, not crude oil. "With regards to the price of #Gasoline in the US, that’s really a function of a lack of refining capacity ...So increasing crude #Oil supplies to the US is not going to alleviate that problem." Thx @NoorNugali #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

why #Buffet likes #Oil . “you will be producing more #Oil 5 yrs from now or about the same and if you spent trillions $ now you’d still be needing it. you can’t change the world that fast” says Buffet to ⁦ @JoeSquawk ⁩ ask on potential $20T spend on #EnergyTransition . #OOTY

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Don't say The Man, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz, didn't warn everyone. See 👇He may not talk about oil prices, but seems clear that $90 #Oil doesn't reflect the realities of the physical market. And BTW, Saudi can control the realities of the physical market. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Must read! #Aramco CEO Nasser "rest of world will not transition at the same speed as developed world. this is where most of humanity lives". ie. 6.8b of 7.8b world! It's why #EnergyTransition "ambition is years ahead of reality". #Oil #NatGas look good for 2020s. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

#Oil 101. Decline rates. Every barrel produced has to be replaced just to keep production flat. #Aramco CEO "considering the depletion of 5% to 7% and you need to have huge investment just to maintain the current decline that we see in existing mature fields" Oil looks good

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Must read. Hard not to be very bullish #Oil on reality for #Aramco to MAINTAIN & increase production. Yes can produce 11-12 mmb/d but need massive investments & above all more reservoir management, Ghawar 3.8 mmbd of MSC is in decline, economics not there for new fields #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

For #Oil bulls. "What I am saying natural decline is call it 6% on 103 million barrels, that’s over 6 million barrels per day of capacity that is lost every year, that has to be replaced. So that is a Saudi Arabia every 2 years” Saudi Aramco CFO Al-Murshed to @VonnieQuinn #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

#Oil Bulls will really like this. Lowest oil in floating storage since Covid, 3rd consecutive week of very low levels. 10/20: 64.27 mmb 10/13 : 71.76 (~zero revisions) 10/06: 69.55 mmb Down ~70 mmb vs recent 06/23/23 peak 134.36 mmb. Thx @Vortexa @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Buckle Up. Shell just asked if seeing demand destruction. No, "we see a continued increase in product demand around the world" "we definitely do not see a reduction in demand" "we also see by the way is a continued decrease in investment in supply" says @VanBeurdenShell . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

"they [White House] keep asking us to increase production. Frankly, when you increase production in a tight market, you make more money" #Exxon CEO Woods. also "we will continue to try to explain to the White House how the markets work" #OOTT @JoeSquawk

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

#SaudiAramco Q2 call is on. CEO Nasser concern remains industry is not investing enough to meet even the most conservative of demand forecasts. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

For anyone looking at #Oil in 2025+ #Aramco CEO "If you look at existing fields today & the level of maturity that we're seeing in conventional and unconventional resources, you're looking at a 7% decline" ie. 7 mmbd has to be replaced each yr to stay flat Thx @jcgnana #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

3 years

just sent my last tweet only to look up and seeing the end of the local #Canmore elk gang running thru our backyard. never get tired see the wildlife enjoying their cdn rockies home

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

WOW! Russia, OPEC Secretariat meeting with 5 Secondary Sources & 5 tanker trackers agree to a template & mthly meetings for transparency in RUS #Oil & products exports. It's why Saudi Energy Minister is The Man! See 👇SAF Group transcript. Great @wenkennedy interview! #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

China reopening! All major cities have seen peak Covid & moving to herd immunity, which means people are getting out and driving and now flying domestically. Flights from Beijing and Shanghai to rise rapidly. chart just now on Bloomberg Markets Asia. #OOTT #Oil

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

china speeding to herd immunity. ⁦ @AmChamSh ⁩ Eric Zheng just now. no official stats but in Shanghai, based on anecdotal evidence at least 70% of people have already got the Covid infection. set up for sustained #Oil demand recovery on Q2. thx ⁦⁦ @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Bullish for #Oil How much sustainable Permian oil growth is there if Permian DUCs are lowest level in several yrs when Permian production was 1/3 today's b/d? ICYMI. @EIAgov revised its estimated Permian DUCs -251 to revised 793 DUCs. EIA estimates Mar is 761 DUCs #OOTT .

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Buckle up! if you think #Oil market is tight today, see what #Vitol 's Head Asia @michaelwmuller says about the fall. "unless we see massive demand destruction from a recession ... the supply cushion from OPEC will be at a point which is alarming" same time as lower SPR 1/2 #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

Positive for WTI #Oil over coming weeks. 321 crack spreads at $33.00 are very big margins for refineries ie, huge incentive to maximize runs/crude input. Refineries taking as much oil as possible tends to drag up oil prices a bit. #OOTT Thx @business

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Buckle Up! #Oil market uncertainty from EU Russia oil price cap is only now starting. Kommersant on Novak comments just now that Russia is "ready to reduce oil production in the event that European importers begin to apply the price limit." #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Bullish for #Oil . #Exxon reminds #Oil #NatGas supply declines at ~7% per year ie. need to replace 7% to stay flat. not a new argument, see 👇SAF 06/20/19 blog "“Exxon’s Math Calls For Overall Global Oil Decline Rate of ~7%, A Very Bullish Argument For Post 2020 Oil Prices" #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Focus by #Biden @fbirol is on short term oil supply (want more #OPEC , shale), but don't have answer for big 2022 problem - refining capacity to produce #Diesel #Gasoline #JetFuel . 4.4 mmbd shut down since Jan 1/2020 driven by #ESG pressures. Thx @BloombergNEF Sisi Tang. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Here's why #Montney is likely #1 #NatGas play in CAN/US, maybe in the world! $TOU Q2 call: 6-well 10b Aitken Creek Montney pad. Drill/complete/onstream in Q4/21, cost $30.6mm, payout of 3 months, income to date >$130 mm, forecast IRR is >1,000%. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

sounds like a turning point for #Oil markets. Saudi finally admits it is reaching peak oil capacity and supply. key question is after reaching peak in four or five years or so, how long can saudi maintain production and then how fast are the declines. bullish for oil. #OOTT

Amena Bakr

@Amena__Bakr

2 years

Saudi crown prince said: the kingdom has plans to increase its oil production capacity to 13 million bpd and after that it will not have the ability to increase production further. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

11 months

#Oil bulls should like this. Floating oil storage 68.14 mmb at 11/03. Only been 6 wks below 70 mmb since Covid, 4 of which in last 5 wks. Down 65 mmb vs recent 06/23/23 peak 133,84 mmb Thx @Vortexa @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Oil Bulls will like this. 2nd week of very low #Oil in floating storage. 10/13/23 at 71.79 mmb & 10/06/23 at 73.80 mmb, about 60 mmb below recent 06/23/23 peak. And not huge revisions to past 7-wks, mix ranging from +3.24 mmb to -3.31 mmb. Thx @Vortexa @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Bullish for #Oil . $PXD CEO Sheffield "most companies are drilling Tier 2, Tier 3 inventory now. So we just don’t have that potential to grow US production ever again. I think we may get back to 13 mmb/d, probably in ~2.5 to 3 yrs at a very slow pace.” Thx @SullyCNBC . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

4 months

Oil market better in H2 than price reflecting? Always worth giving strong consideration to @CroftHelima views on OPEC. She is one of the small # "in the room" for Q&A with key players. Most of all, she has a direct relationship with The Man, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz.

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 months

"More Than Half of Teslas Are Being Traded In for Gas Cars" 👇 @edmunds Will Kaufman report. Doubt if any EVs sales forecasts build in any significant % of EV owners switching back to ICE? Another reason why EVs replacing ICE forecasts are too optimistic. #OOTT #Oil

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

#Aramco CEO "the world should be worried" "this is where we are heading. If China opens up a little bit, you will find out that spare capacity will be eroded completed" reports @MathisWilliam . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

#Vortexa crude #Oil floating storage at May 5 est 72.54 mmb, -20.96 mmb WoW vs revised Apr 28 of 93.50 mmb. See 👇table, -44.50 mmb MoM, is this Iran selling floating storage, RUS oil being rerouted after being transferred? Thx @Vortexa @business . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

@nut_history Agreed! In an emotion filled Yankee Stadium after 9/11 on Oct 30, 2001! Even more impressive that he threw a perfect strike wearing a bulletproof vest and after derek jeter said don't bounce it before home plate.

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Buckle Up! Available #Oil capacity is declining fast. EU sanctions on RUS #Oil start in Dec. @ArgusMedia reports #Aramco CEO Nasser said "describing "strained" global spare capacity of less than 2mn b/d and "declining fast." Oil looks good for Q4. Thx Ruxandra Jordache #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

"pivot to short-cycle barrels creates the opposite effect - a perpetual threat of undersupply that is supportive to commodity price" says @Halliburton . Just in time #Oil supply in a world of supply interruptions/delays & demand > expectations. Oil looks great for 2020s. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Buckle up! Summer #Oil demand about to hit. OPEC fcast Q3/22 demand +2.66 mmbd QoQ & Q4/22 +1.92 mmb/d QoQ. OPEC quota countries +33,000 b/d MoM in May vs quota +275,000. Also crude + products stocks Apr 30 still -299 mmb below 2015-19 average. Can demand fall fast enough? #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Key factor why #Oil looks good for 2020s. #Exxon today "natural decline rate of existing oil production is approx 7% per yr." WTI was $52 on 06/17/19, when Exxon warned on 7% decline. See 👇SAF 06/20/19 blog. "Exxon’s Math Calls For Overall Global Oil Decline Rate of ~7%, A

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

WOW! Must read 👇RWE CEO post "... #OffshoreWind projects in EU & US have been stopped, mainly citing cost increases" "worst case scenario for the #EnergyTransition when large projects that have already been awarded are not realised as planned" #NatGas needed for longer #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

"The IEA has become, so to speak, our armed wing of implementing the Paris agreement” Macron. The IEA has no guns, is Macron saying analysis/fcasts are their weapons to implement Paris as opposed to analyzing energy! Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz will say I told you so! #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

WOW! Orsted, a global leader in Wind, cut its renewable energy capacity ambition to 2030 by 24-30% & its investment by 43% How can the IEA & others not push back peak #NatGas demand timing. #Oil #NatGas will be needed for longer. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Breaking good news for Cdn #Oil Trans Mountain CEO sees TMX 590,000 b/d expansion in commercial operations by end of Q1/24. 4.5 mmb line fill to start end of Jan. Thx @ChrisVarcoe #OOTT

ChrisVarcoe

@ChrisVarcoe

1 year

In an interview, Trans Mountain Corp. CEO Dawn Farrell said she expects opening of expansion project by end of Q1, a potential sale within 2 years. The $30.9B project is facing cost pressures but "we are close, in that range." #cdnpoli #ableg #yyc #TMX

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Here's why Cdn No Frack #Oil plays are big. Looks like $TVE CEO showing 👇slide. No Frack Clearwater vs top quartile Permian Delaware Wolfcamp. Faster payout: 0.4 yrs vs 0.7. NPV is 5.3x vs well cost vs 1.2x More reserves per $, secondary recovery potential, etc. #OOTT

Sohaib Abbas

@sohaibab9

1 year

Thanks 2 all that showed up, Brian put up an absolute clinic. I’ve always felt if you invest in great people first you’ll almost always come out on top. It’s really obvious for anyone that cares to look, $TVE gonna have a remarkable 2H blow out quarter’s ! Brian was also so

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

"tightness around oil supply is not something that’s resolved quickly after 7, 8 years of underinvestment" "i am equally excited about the duration. This is multiples of years. it was a decade in the making, it’s many years in the undoing in terms of producing" $HAL CEO. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

11 months

#Oil bulls should like this. Floating oil storage 53.77 mmb at 11/10, only <60 mmb since Covid. Some upward revisions to Oct wks but only to low 70's mmb, which is low as only been 5 wks (incl 11/10, 10/20) below 70 mmb since Covid. Thx @Vortexa @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

US #Oil supply can grow but the treadmill is not slowing down. $FANG is now 3rd largest Permian player at 816.000 boe/d. Says "Base Total Decline (%) is ~31%" in its Permian lands" ie. need to add ~250,000 b/d to keep Permian flat. #OOTT

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

For anyone looking at #Oil in 2025+ #Aramco CEO "If you look at existing fields today & the level of maturity that we're seeing in conventional and unconventional resources, you're looking at a 7% decline" ie. 7 mmbd has to be replaced each yr to stay flat Thx @jcgnana #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 month

#Oil #NatGas 101 All existing oil & natural gas producing fields have declining production levels and require ongoing capital spending to try to minimize the rate of decline. Then need to add new production from new field just to stay flat, let alone grow. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

3 years

If you could invite 3 people for dinner? #SaudiEnergyMinister Abdulaziz should be on everyone's list, he is on mine! "The Man" who saved the #Oil market and shows he is just a good person with a heartfelt tribute. #OOTT Thx @dan_murphy for video.

Dan Murphy

@dan_murphy

3 years

HRH shows why #OPEC goes beyond the politics. A very personal tribute from the #Saudi Energy Minister to his departing #Iranian counterpart. @CNBCi #oott #oil

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 months

Every man for himself. Game changer in the fast approaching fight for 24/7 reliable, affordable #NatGas power in the US. Data Centers need reliable 24/7 #NatGas so much, they will buy it from the gas pipeline before the gas gets to LDCs to generate power!! TC Energy Q2 Q&A

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

Data centers/AI growth = massive need for power. Data centers don't run less when the sun goes down or the wind isn't blowing. Looks like a lot more #NatGas power will be needed 👇 @PippaStevens13 on massive power needs, especially in US, are just ramping up. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Sent congrats to @ericnuttall watching @StreetSignsCNBC . Didn't know 4 min mark "as the manager of the 3rd largest energy fund [active not passive] in the world". @MorningstarInc - BlackRock World Energy Fund $4.7b, Fidelity Select Energy $3.4b, Ninepoint Energy Fund $2.0b. #OOTT

CNBC's Street Signs

@StreetSignsCNBC

2 years

Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall believes that the oil market is already undersupplied before potential Russian production cuts. Watch to find out where he sees $WTI at, as he forecasts a bull market for #oil over the next 5-6 years #energy #opec @WillKoulouris @TanvirGill2

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

Houthis Red Sea impact? Lowest floating #Oil storage since Covid. 01/26 61.06 mmb. Only been 6 wks in 60s since Covid. Are some floating storage barrels filling any delivery gaps from tankers having to go via Cape of Good Hope to avoid Red Sea? Thx @Vortexa @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

"WOW" says @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC US consumer deposit balances still 40% above pre-Covid. think the excess savings during Covid + wage growth savings boost doesn't run out until "well past 2024" says $BAC Liz Everett Krisberg . #OOTT

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

US consumer still spending! $BAC CEO "what you’re seeing in the tension between how I feel versus what I do. And how I feel is I feel inflation, I’m reading about everything is more expensive. What I’m doing, I’m going to concerts, I’m spending money on entertainment"

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@Energy_Tidbits

3 years

Biggest mistake in US #Oil growth fcast is correlation of rig count vs prod. Oil growth in 21/22 driven by historic DUC drawdown. Excess DUCs gone, higher rigs needed to replenish DUCs. It's why higher rigs in 23 = lower growth rate. one of many insights from @RaymondJames #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

321 crack spreads hit $30 today. normally $30 spreads provides big incentives for refineries to keep up runs and first response is to drag up #Oil prices a bit. Thx @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

5 months

#Oil 101: Need to add ~6-7 mmbd new oil supply/yr to stay flat. Aramco Q1 👇: Damman, Marjan, Berri & Zuluf to add 1.225 mmbd to "maintain MSC at 12.0 mmbpd". Saudi ~3.5% oil decline would fit Aramco 👇12/07/23 tweet global conventional + unconventional decline of 7%. #OOTT

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

For anyone looking at #Oil in 2025+ #Aramco CEO "If you look at existing fields today & the level of maturity that we're seeing in conventional and unconventional resources, you're looking at a 7% decline" ie. 7 mmbd has to be replaced each yr to stay flat Thx @jcgnana #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

1/7. @IEA Global EVs Outlook 2023 #Oil Bears and Bulls will both love it! Oil Bears and western leaders like headline, EVs to be 60% of total car sales in 2030, EVs to displace nearly 6 mmbd of oil by 2030, already displaced 0.7 mmbd in 2022. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

Positive for Oil over coming week. 321 crack spreads still $29.46. Spreads at ~$30 provide big incentive for refineries to keep up runs and, if possible, defer maintenance. Refineries taking as much #Oil as possible tends to drag up Oil prices a bit. #OOTT Thx @business

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Wake up call. @aramco CEO headlines will be "little hope of ending the #EnergyCrisis anytime soon", global #Oil capacity ~1.5% of demand will be eliminated as demand recovers. Overlooked? global oil fields decline ~6% each year, that's every year! see 👇 06/23/19 blog. #OOTT

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

5 years

XOM NYC speech: factor in depletion rates, need to new oil prod adds ~8%/yr, ie. global oil decline is ~7%/yr. See SAF June 23 blog ”Exxon’s Math Calls For Overall Global Oil Decline Rate of ~7%, A Very Bullish Argument For Post 2020 Oil Prices” #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

WOW! wonder what brought this on? “it would be inappropriate for us to use our monetary policy or supervisory tools for example to promote a greener economy or achieve other climate based goals. we are not and will not be a climate policymaker @federalreserve chair Powell. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

4 years

Breaking: Cenovus/Husky to merge. Like recent US M&A, big value creation from cost cutting with $1.2b in capital and cost synergies. Unlike recent US M&A, rumors weren't in the market for days. #OOTT #Oil

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

6 months

Big positive to Cdn #Oil about to kick-in with 590,000 b/d TMX expected start by end of Q2. China's Sinochem takes 1st cargo from Suncor in May/June reports @business . Recall 👇 @JavierBlas 02/14 column, expected to give $7/b lift to Cdn crude. #OOTT

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

8 months

COLUMN: After years of pain, Canada’s expensive new pipeline expansion is set to put its oil industry back on track | #OOTT #Canada | @Opinion

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@Energy_Tidbits

3 years

Eye opening Cdn E&P free cash flow valuation. @ericnuttall est how many yrs of FCF would it take for an E&P to buy back all outstanding shares and debt. <3 yrs = 1, 3-4 yrs = 5, 4-5 yrs = 7, 5-6 yrs = 4. No wonder he's still long despite his fund being +97% YTD. #NatGas #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

3 years

Breaking. #Oil demand surge is now happening. @TSA screened >2 mm passengers for 1st time since March 2020. Still 26% lower vs 2019, but 1.5 mm more than 2020. Reinforces key oil theme supporting >$70 price - the demand surge is now happening. #OOTT

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@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

#CoreLabs "ongoing challenges with [US] crude #oil supply". Unconventionals are a very unforgiving treadmill, decline rates are so quick, need more wells just to maintain production, need more drilling & fracking. "less Tier 1 property out there" Thx @business #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

One for #Oil bulls "now you're starting to see [Oil] demand revisions upwards" financial markets "still looking at this saying do we really buy into this demand story that at least the physical market is telling us" "if you’re saying demand growth is now, instead of the 1.1

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

Looks like Trans Mountain 590,000 b/d TMX expansion is on track to start in June. @business headlines out of MEG Q4 call right now. "Trans Mountain seeks 2.1M bbl in April, 2.1M bbl in May: MEG". So calling for line-fill of 70,000 b/d in Apr & May. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

In case you were wondering why Brent spiked ~$4 on Friday with rumors of China relaxing Covid restrictions. There is no slack in the global #Oil #Gasoline #Distillates inventory pictures. Thx @ericnuttall . #OOTT

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

2 years

We remain bullish.

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Must read #Permian #MidlandBasin report by @RaymondJames John Freeman. Core inventory dwindling at a rapid rate Well productivity has finally rolled over (albeit at a slower rate than many would have expected) Bodes well for the macro outlook [positive for #Oil ] with Midland

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

"Time to get bullish again on crude?" @Vortexa chief economist @david_wech "Vortexa real-time global onshore inventory data is showing substantial, widespread and persistent draws over the last two months. Seven of the last nine weeks saw draws, averaging a strong 1.6mbd" #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

WOW! Big hit to wind generation aspirations in #EnergyTransition . Even worse than expected vs @SiemensGamesa 👇02/06/23 warning. 06/22/23: "Following the substantial increase in failure rates of wind turbine components .... initiated an extended technical review of Siemens

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

WOW! 👇 @SiemensGamesa wind industry hit by slow permitting, grid constrains, regulatory uncertainty, auction mechanisms that allow for negative pricing. led to wind OEM sizeable losses, employment destruction, investment decisions constraint/put on hold Bullish #NatGas . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

#1 oil challenge every year! #Oil production declines every year so co's have to replace declines just to stay flat. Petrobras: Brazil average decline is 10% so have to add 280,000 boe/d each year just to stay flat. Petrobras reminds no YoY oil growth in 2024 & 2025. #OOTT

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

1st challenge to meet increasing #Oil demand, even IEA fcasts increase, is that existing production is always declining. most use ~5% base decline or 5 mmb/d for world to replace to stay flat. bp CEO says its base decline rate is 3% to 5% #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Bullish for #Oil Is there SUSTAINABLE Permian oil GROWTH if Permian DUCs are at 2014 levels & Oil rigs ~65% of 2014 levels, but that was when Permian production was >30% of today's b/d? @EIAgov new well prod/rig is 3x 2014 levels, but down 1/3 since 2021. Need DUCs/New Oil

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Is this what #WarrenBuffett & #CharlieMunger wanted? Reason to not like #Shale ? Huge initial production but 1 1/2 yrs, "it becomes practically nothing. "it really dies fast, those shale wells, if you like quick death in your wells, we have them for you", "it's not a long-term

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

slip of tongue? “when i talked to a couple of them they say we’re afraid you’re going to shut down all the oil wells, all the refineries anyways so why should we invest in them. i say we’re going to need oil for at least another decade” [laughter so adds] “and beyond that” #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

"i think they ( #IEA ) have proven it takes a special talent to be consistently wrong. And that's exactly what they have done" Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz. Bigger concern is why did IEA miss? Was it indirect political pressure on IEA for forecasts that set up desired political

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

9 months

Thank you for getting to 10,000 followers! i just hope my posts help people with their perspective to energy and markets. Wish everyone health and happiness in 2024. Thank you Dan T

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

4 years

#Line5 . @GovWhitmer declares propane supply emergency. Good thing she didn't try to shut down $ENB Line 5 this winter. Line 5 supplies 65% of propane demand in MI Upper Peninsula & 55% of MI statewide propane needs. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

Oil 101 It's why markets hear Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz focus on keeping the #Oil market in balance. Inventories reflect supply vs demand & he knows oil prices follow changes in inventories up or down. It's a matter of time. Thx @staunovo for great graph. #OOTT

Giovanni Staunovo🛢

@staunovo

8 months

Relationship between oil prices and OECD commercial oil inventories (y/y changes) #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Reminder quickest way for Saudi to impact #Oil prices is cut exports to US so it shows up in weekly US oil inventory data. Saudi cut crude shipments to US to 81,000 b/d in Aug vs 430,000 b/d in July. Provide support to Sept/early Oct prices. #OOTT @JLeeEnergy @bwingfield

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

6 months

Oil bulls will like this! "Instead, now we’re getting numbers like 1.7, 1.8 million barrels a day [Oil Demand] because growth globally is holding up ...." @saadrahim . Thx @FT @gulf_intel #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

1st & foremost priority for #Exxon capital allocation. CEO woods "this is a depletion business on the #Oil & #NatGas side ... basically on a treadmill, every barrel is another barrel you have to replace" World needs ~5mmbd adds to stay flat Thx @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

4 years

Do a Google search, i think you will agree there aren't many wood spirits carvings that can capture the emotion from eyes and expression that my brother-in-law in Orono (Ontario) accomplished here. Most of us just watch NFL on weekends, he does this. #woodspirits #woodcarving

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

#Vortexa crude #Oil floating storage at 08/25 est 80.31 mmb, down big -24.91 mmb WoW vs revised up by +9.90 mmb 08/18 of 105.22 mmb. Note: 08/25 80.31 mmb is down a whopping -49.50 mmb vs recent 06/23/23 peak of 129.81 mmb. Thx @Vortexa @business . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

7 months

Breaking! #Oil story for Monday morning. "OPEC+ Extends Oil Supply Cuts Until Mid-Year to Avert a Surplus" reports @FionamMacDonald @S_Elwardany Grant Smith. #OOTT

OPEC+ Extends Oil Cuts, With Russia Bolstering Its Effort

OPEC+ extended its oil supply cutbacks to the middle of the year in a bid to avert a global surplus and shore up prices.

www.bloomberg.com

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Must Read #Oil #Metals outlook from @Trafigura @saadrahim "difficult to see how US [ #Oil ] production is going to increase this year..." with new refining capacity "there will likely be a structure dearth of crude oil in the coming years .... raises prospect of heightened

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

10 months

Here is final #OPEC + cuts post 2nd OPEC release. Final 2.196 mmb/d so +896,000 b/d over prior voluntary Saudi/Russia cuts See 👇SAF Group table Thx @Amena__Bakr @HermsTheWord @staunovo #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 months

To good to be true? Vortexa #oil floating storage est -24.59 mmb WoW to 56.75 mmb at Aug 2. Lowest since Covid & only 1 of 3 wks in 50s since Covid. Always revisions over the week so question is by how much? But even if revised up into 60s, if subsequent weeks can be in

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

6 months

Positive for #Oil "Chinese onshore oil stocks are actually very low. They drew down a lot over the first 3 months of this year”. "flows to China over the whole maintenance period will be pretty steady between 9-10 mmb/d" @kpler @mattwright8 to @sean_evers @gulf_intel . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

#Oil #NatGas services are tapped out. "frack cement crews perspective, we think the basin will very soon be approaching capacity" "sand mines & the rail is operating basically at capacity" says #Trican on Q2 call. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

#Oil prices may not reflect it, but inventories in the seasonally low Q1 demand period are playing out as KSA Abdulaziz expected when #OPEC + agreed to voluntary cuts! Good set up as demand seasonally ramps up in Q2 & more in Q3 Thx @ericnuttall for sharing @Kpler data #OOTT

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall

8 months

In the first 6 weeks of 2023 global oil inventories rose by 40MM Bbls. This year??? They have fallen by 81MM Bbls, and now stand at their lowest levels since Klper data began (2017), despite absorbing ~268MM net barrels from the Strategic Political Reserve.

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

Should see RUS #oil production cuts hit Jun/Jul/Aug physical markets & why cuts hasn't hit exports yet. Normal seasonal pattern of RUS refinery turnarounds reduce oil intake by ~500,000 b/d from Feb thru May. Thx @JODI_Data #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

See 👇 transcript. @ea_amrita on next 2 mths vs after Nov. Headline will be she thinks #Oil prices can continue to weaken in near term. But after Nov, "the market is going to tighten up very, very quickly. So we still maintain forecast of over $120 for Brent". #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

4 months

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz delivers. #OPEC + extends group-wide cuts thru 2025. Reports the extra voluntary cuts to be extended thru 2024. Waiting on individual company announcements. UAE gets added allotment 300,000 b/d phase in 2025. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

9 months

What Iran #Oil sanctions? Lack of enforcement on Iran sanctions = Iran oil production +0.52 mmbd exit 2022 to exit 2023, and +0.35 mmbd exit 2023 to exit 2024. Highlighted by @RaymondJames John Freeman Pavel Molchanov Justin Jenkins Jim Rollyson J.R. Weston #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

9 months

“The [Bakken] DUC well inventory should be almost entirely depleted at this point.” "pretty close to 50% of the [Bakken #Oil ] production increase is driven by completion of DUC wells. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

3 years

#OPEC + "spare capacity is eroding really fast" "assessements we have now is that spare capacity among OPEC+ is about 2.5 million barrels" only KSA & UAE "who could immediately add production". Great support for #Oil as demand gets to preCovid. Thx @Amena__Bakr @sean_evers . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Unchanged temperature outlook for balance of Nov - very cold for next week, then colder than normal for late Nov. Very cold in mid-Nov in Chicaco means daytime high is around freezing. Still, always good to start winter #NatGas withdraw with a colder Nov. Thx @NOAA . #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

6 months

Positive support for WTI 321 crack spreads still high. WTI -$1.25 WoW to close $85.66. 321 crack spreads widened $0.94 WoW to $30.39. Crack spreads ~$30 provide big margins for refineries ie, big incentive to buying crude to maximize runs. #OOTT #Oil Thx @business

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Buckle Up! Imagine long-term #Oil #NatGas prices if #Exxon is even within 5 years to being right on timing of peak demand? Exxon 2022 Outlook for Energy: Peak #Oil demand ~2040 even if transportation peaks ~2030. Peak #NatGas demand after 2050. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

11 months

Suez Canal 101 Tanker/cargo ships thru the Suez have to go thru Red Sea & Bab el Mandeb. Surprised US shooting down Houthis 4 cruise missiles & 30 drones in Red Sea hasn't got more attention. See 👇 @EIAgov Bab el Mandeb choke point for #Oil tankers. #OOTT

Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

11 months

Peeling the onion? WSJ: Houthis launched 5 cruise & ~30 drones (vs 3 & several drones per Pentagon). US shot down 4 cruise "5th cruise missile was intercepted by KSA as it protected its airspace." airspace over land or hugging coast? Was it on different flight path? Houthis

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

2 years

Must read! #Kommersant equipment failure to lead to big cut in #Oil exports via CPC from planned 1.35 mmbd to 0.60 mmbd as "given the political situation, repairs will most likely be delayed until spring". some alternative route via Transneft 0.40 mmbd & BTC 0.10 mmbd. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

1 year

"Iran, during the last 3 mths, decided to sell most of its [floating] #Oil with remarkable discounts" "And there is almost no gas condensate floating right now" Tehran-based @DanialRahmat12 to @FrankKaneDubai on @gulf_intel . Torque to oil price when demand returns. #OOTT

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Dan Tsubouchi

@Energy_Tidbits

8 months

#OIl bulls will like this. Johan Sverdrup 0 to 0.75 mmbd led to Norway 1.31 mmbd in 09/19 to 1.85 mmbd today BUT Aker BP says JS moving from plateau to decline in late 24/early 25. Water now hitting some wells. Can they arrest decline with H2O handling, more wells, etc?

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