📈Job market paper time📉
I’m excited to finally share my job market paper! My JMP studies whether and why policy choices are stubbornly persistent.
For example, Oregon has an income tax, but Washington doesn’t—seemingly because of nearly century-old choices. Is this typical?
I collect detailed histories of more than 800 policy changes proposed in U.S. state-level referendums.
A regression discontinuity design shows that passing a policy increases the chance it is operative 20, 40, or even 100 years later by >40 percentage points.
I strongly recommend this summer program + £5,000 fellowship at
@GPIOxford
and the Forethought Foundation.
(Esp. for econ PhD students interested in effective altruism, risks to humanity, or welfare econ.)
Feel free to PM me w/any Qs.
#EconTwitter
In other words, I set out to find out how much more likely a policy is to be operative in a given year if it was passed than if it failed decades earlier (all else equal).
Here's what I do (lots of data!) and what I find. 👇
Full paper:
Presented my job-market talk to my nephews. The ten-year-old asked questions of a caliber I'd expect from a top academic department!
(Praise to him, not offense to academics 😉)
I seem to regularly walk away from EA Global with a feeling of "damn, I didn't get to talk to everyone I'd wanted to" even after talking to dozens of people.
Submit your papers on the economics of animal welfare to the first-ever such session at Stanford Econ's annual SITE conferences (
@SIEPR
). See here for details:
#EconTwitter
#AnimalWelfare
The controversy over red "meat" illustrates why vegans should focus on ethics and not diet. Nutrition science changes; the ethical argument will not (and if for some reason it did, then we should concede the point).
Highly recommend pre-ordering
@willmacaskill
's upcoming book "What We Owe the Future" for a thorough, well-rounded, provocative look at how we can make the world better for all the generations to come:
Very proud of and impressed with the ACE team's work this year. They've made significant improvements to the evaluation process that give me confidence in this year's evals. I'm excited to rely on them for my husband's and my end-of-year giving.
ANNOUNCING OUR 2022 CHARITY RECOMMENDATIONS! 🎉
We've spent several months evaluating
#animaladvocacy
organizations to identify those that work effectively. This year, we're excited to announce that we have four Top Charities and 11 Standout Charities. 👏
@HolocaustMuseum
So why does your website have a section on genocide that mentions South Sudan, Syria, and Zimbabwe, none of which are 1940 Germany as far as I know?
Excited about this paper: "Unusually bad weather on April 22, 1970 is associated with weaker support for the environment 10 to 20 years later, particularly among those who were school aged in 1970."
Would love to see a meta-analysis of this sort of study.
It's a very difficult year out there for so many. Thought a happy event might bring some cheer—celebrating one year since this man and I took each other as husbands. Here's to a marriage that reliably nourishes, comforts, and invigorates.
Putting this together was the equivalent of six months of research. Massive effort by Doug Bernheim
@seb_otero
, and the indefatigable night owl
@NinaBuchmann6
.
Beyond the "30,000" stat, it's a careful look at COVID spread from large, unmasked events.
Really bad news: DOJ just filed a brief asking the Supreme Court to overturn CA’s ban on the sale of pork from crated pigs.
The Biden Administration is siding with the pork industry in defending one of the most extreme forms of farm animal cruelty.
I've long thought economics was overdue for a
#MeToo
cascade. It was hard for me not to think there was a serious amount of oppressive behavior unexposed. I'm disturbed at the revelations but glad this is finally coming to light.
There is a ton of stuff happening behind the scenes right now - I'm so grateful to everyone involved!
Ladies in econ, we have momentum. If you have info, please share it. I have a list of journalists who'd love to hear from you. Email/DM me for their contact info.
My morning meditation:
"How is it possible that matter gives rise to consciousness? You may never have thought about this, and if you have, you may go years without thinking about it again."
Uh, no, I think about this AT LEAST weekly! Do people really not think about this?
Very nice to see LGBTQ issues discussed in this edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives! Some interesting things:
-The number of people identifying as gay, bisexual, or trans on surveys is much lower than I think many of my friends would guess.
#EconTwitter
Why is this happening? Returning to the income tax, there are two sorts of explanations we can think of. First, people might get used to the policy (e.g., businesses adapt to the income tax).
Farmers to
@nytimes
: we're traumatized by killing our pigs.
Factory farmers in reality: kill all small piglets & all sows when they cease to be productive.
Also: maintain awful conditions where, even pre-COVID, 8-28% of pigs don't survive to slaughter (Mehling et al, 2019).
Not that many policies get repealed, but a lot of policies are inevitable in the sense that if they fail at first, they pass later on—especially in the first decade/decades.
Oregon and Washington actually both had repeated votes over the income tax in the 1920s and 30s.
In keeping with this explanation, news rises leading up to a referendum and then starts declining. It looks like people just stop thinking about the policy as much.
Other data support this: policies that I manually code as being more observable display less persistence.
Highly recommend the film "EO", about the life of a donkey.
When we watched it, Lucas kept pointing out beautiful shots. I did not because every single shot in the film was so damn stunning.
There's nothing like this one (though there's a great 1966 French film about a donkey).
The pattern is remarkably similar for different topics, levels of importance, institutional contexts, time periods, and more. It is also robust to different ways of defining a policy and tweaks to how I define a policy.
Hey
#EconTwitter
,
@MercyForAnimals
, an evidence-minded animal advocacy group that's produced many noteworthy undercover investigations and corporate policies around the globe, is looking to hire an economist.
Please share with any interested:
Second, people might just stop thinking about a policy—it becomes less salient.
The income tax is an interesting case. Many states adopted the income tax in the 20s and 30s following the first federal income tax. States that did not adopt it then generally don’t have it now.
Florida has become the center of right wing extremism in America.
I can’t let that happen – that’s why I’m announcing my campaign for State House District 91.
RT to help me restore reproductive freedom, prevent gun violence, and defend democracy in our state.
I find it puzzling how standard it is that companies offer you a lower subscription price if you click a few buttons threatening to cancel a subscription.
Seems like a form of price discrimination that shouldn't work because of how easy it is to game, but I guess it does.
Really glad to see this discussion happening and
@jeffrsebo
's thoughts on it.
Also terrified that we may have to think about this with how uncertain we are.
🧵 Over the past six months, I’ve intermittently gathered reference classes/analogies to help us think the likelihood of catastrophe from superhuman Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Here’s a quick summary of what I took away.👇 (1/12)
Given Will (MacAskill)'s recent appearance on The Daily Show, I think it's time to give some thought to other media opportunities.
Personally, I think he should consider the next season of RuPaul's Secret Celebrity Drag Race. What should her drag name be? 👇
@PeterSinger
There's no humane slaughter here or there.
There's no humane slaughter anywhere.
Not in a box, not with a fox.
Not in a house, not with a mouse.
@iamcardib
$9,996 to
@AnimalCharityEv
to research the best ways to help nonhuman animals. They've helped steer money to highly-effective places that have improved the lives of hundreds of billions of animals!
This is important news. Not only is it good for those crabs and lobsters, but it starts a vital conversation about the sentience of suffering of aquatic animals, and the boundaries of who we consider a feeling being.
The data don’t display the patterns I’d expect if this were what is happening. We don’t see voters becoming more supportive of policies after they have been in place for longer.
We also don't see heterogeneity where I'd expect to see it.
The sample is smaller, but the effect of passing a policy is similar in these other contexts. That is, in quite different settings, we see that policy is strongly dependent on choices made decades ago—and the level of persistence is even quantitatively similar.
#econtwitter
#econjobs
cool job to use econ skills to make a difference! Review academic literature to recommend grants to improve global health and economic development!
Oppenheimer was excellent, but I'm of the sure-to-be-popular opinion that it should have been about an hour longer:
-Slow down Act I for more contemplation/scientific personalities
-Show the suffering at Hiroshima/Nagasaki
-More show, less tell, about his postwar activities
I have a new
@aeonmag
essay on insect welfare (with Jason Schukraft from
@RethinkPriors
) out today!
In short: Insects might be sentient, and we should treat them with compassion in case they are.
Please read, comment, and share if you like!
@RYChappell
I wish people would recognize more that if "potential life" requires banning abortion, it presumably also means mandating frequent, unprotected, heterosexual sex.
Glad to see people noticing this study. I never expected to see 30,000 new cases. So we double, triple-checked it to make sure it held up, and sadly it did.