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@yipitdata
.com
Our data shows that 2Q22 cumulative $TSLA U.S. orders are trending below that of the prior quarter through June 25th, dragged largely by Model 3 and Y on an absolute basis.
YipitData just launched coverage of $UPST.
Our data demonstrates loan volume peaked between Nov-21 and Mar-22 and began to normalize in 2Q22. The recent two months, Jun-22 and Jul-22, saw volume falling off a cliff.
YipitData just launched coverage of
@gopuff
! Our analysis shows Gopuff leading the U.S. 1P convenience market, with share levels fluctuating between ~70-85% in the last 2 years.
Register for our webcast next Tuesday, Feb. 8 for more Gopuff insights:
We’re excited to announce today that we’ve raised up to $475 million in Series E funding from
@OneCarlyle
. Surpassing unicorn status and ushering in a new era of market research.
Read more details on our website here:
$AMZN turned heads today. Our estimate of AWS growth correctly called the beat and was more accurate than consensus for the 3rd consecutive quarter. Our B2B invoice level spend data helps answer what may drive that with granularities across product, region, and industry levels.
Our $NFLX data suggests U.S. churn spiked in late April into May. Churn is now back to levels observed through much of 1Q.
Was this a reaction to the upcoming password sharing crackdown and other negativity in the media?
Dear $DHER, $TKWY, $DASH, $ROO et al: can you all please get a
@yipitdata
subscription and start using uniform market share data based on actual orders?
YipitData shows smaller Shopee Regular merchants continue to suffer more than larger sellers (Shopee Mall and Shopee Verified merchants) with declining GMV on a Y/Y basis in 1H22. $SE
Our preliminary data suggests that $CVNA 2Q22 unit sales increased +9% Y/Y, below Visible Alpha consensus of +14% Y/Y. Our revenue growth estimate of +18% Y/Y is also below VA consensus estimate of 24%, while our ASP estimate (+8% Y/Y) is in line with VA consensus (+8% Y/Y).
Temu keeps scaling and our clients are taking note. Rough wallet share analysis shows discount retailers such as $DG, reporting this morning, are starting to feel the wallet share gains by Temu.
$UBER and $LYFT collectively drew at least 20% fewer riders and posted 35% fewer trips in the first quarter than three years earlier, according to YipitData.
YipitData shows the total numbers of orders at $DASH, $UBER, $GRUB & $WTRH grew 11% in the 3 months through June compared with the same period last year, marking the slowest quarterly expansion in the 2 years since the pandemic struck.
More from
@WSJ
:
Our $CVNA data suggests a spike in the number of vehicles that disappeared from CVNA’s site before completing the reconditioning process. This could be an indicator that they are redirecting more “On Demand” vehicles into the wholesale channel.
@JJohnsonNow
@LaMonicaBuzz
@JJohnsonNow
, congrats on the growth! We recorded $OSTK GMV increasing 55% between Q1 2022 and Q1 2020 in the online home goods market! Check out the full analysis on our blog:
Who's dominating the mattress market?
Casper and Purple are losing market share gained during the beginning of COVID, while $AMZN is witnessing the greatest gains - cementing their growth in the home goods space.
Our data shows Shein has the highest exposure to low income consumers by a significant margin; $LULU, $SFIX, $RVLV and $FTCH all see roughly half their sales from higher income (>$100k) households.
Are consumers gravitating towards $NFLX's new ad-supported service?
YipitData suggests ad-based gross adds have gained traction throughout the quarter, comprising roughly 15% of total subscriber gross adds.
@alliecanal8193
@YahooFinance
:
Despite significant promotional activity from competitors, like Disney+ Day, and a robust competitive content slate, with House of Dragon rolling out in August, $NFLX's subscriber recapture rate improved in 3Q.
"YipitData shows the rower’s preorders contributed about 30% of $PTON's gross connected fitness product orders in Sept, noting its initial contribution as a % of total orders has been more substantial than its latest treadmill launch was last year."
Last month, $PTON reduced hardware prices for the Core Bike, Bike+ and Tread. Our data shows that Connected Fitness Product Orders have been relatively stable after price cuts were implemented.
Our data shows that
#ChatGPT
user retention improved in March, driven by an increase in returning users as a percentage of total. The site continues to add a steady stream of first-time users, as it approaches 100mm WAUs on desktop.
The U.S. housing market's sharp downturn has been especially harsh for iBuyer platform $OPEN. "The company, which sells thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August, according to research from YipitData."
YipitData just launched coverage of the U.S. fast fashion market - $ZARA, $SHEIN & $HM!
We estimate roughly 30% of $SHEIN orders checked out using a buy-now pay-later service in recent months, well above the ~8% rate observed for online $HM orders.
Will $JTKWY's partnership with $AMZN take a big bite out of competition?
YipitData suggests about 3/4 of $AMZN Prime U.S. subscribers live outside of urban areas. This matters because $GRUB is known for its strength in U.S. cities (that boast better restaurant selection).
Our data shows that $LYFT on average has been charging 10% less on a per-mile basis than $UBER.
More on the ridesharing rivals from
@TinaBellon
@Reuters
:
2021 was an exciting year for YipitData. We expanded our coverage by 55%, our team by 162%, and surpassed unicorn status with an investment from Carlyle of up to $475M. We're ushering in a new era of market research and 2022 is going to be a big year for us. Stay tuned!
Is $AMZN losing market share?
In our panel, both the pace of $AMZN's 3-yr e-commerce retail market share gains and e-commerce penetration of the overall U.S. retail market decelerated in late June but improved in early July.
Our $TSLA data suggests US orders remain in steep double-digit Y/Y declines through 9/25; Sep-22's MTD absolute orders index softened across all models, but most prominently for Model Y.
What are we seeing ahead of $TSLA's reporting of global deliveries on Friday?
Deliveries accelerated in May-22, driving 2Q22 QTD cumulative US deliveries back in line with that of 4Q21 and 1Q22, due to an acceleration of Model 3 and Model Y deliveries.
Expanding onto additional 3P grocery platforms has proven to be incremental for Albertsons, as total 3P orders were up ~50% Y/Y in the first quarter after expanding onto $DASH and $UBER over the past year.
Did you know that 45% of food delivery users order exclusively from
@DoorDash
? We're discussing the evolution of the food delivery customer tomorrow at 1pm ET with
@carlorsbourn
and
@meresandland
. Register here:
According to YipitData, New York City has become the epicenter of competition in rapid delivery with
@gopuff
leading the sector with 39% share. Read more about the instant commerce craze from
@jackiedavalos1
@business
:
In 2Q22, $DASH leads as the top third-party delivery platform, with over 60% of total third-party delivery market share. Interested in learning more about regional and brand dynamics in the space? Check out YipitData’s latest Deep Dive:
"Monthly sales @ $DASH, $UBER, $GRUB & Waitr Inc. rose 17% Y/Y after more than doubling every month in mid-2020 and early 2021. The growth was led by $DASH and $UBER, while $GRUB's sales and order volume fell in recent months, according to
@yipitdata
."
Our estimates show $GRUB has just 9% market share in U.S. suburbs. While the lack of overlap between $GRUB's current subscribers and those of $AMZN Prime is promising, will it bear much financial fruit for JET?
More from
@DoubleLJSquared
@WSJheard
:
4Q results show $DASH continues to dominate the delivery space domestically, with its loyalty program DashPass being a large part of its success. More from
@DoubleLJSquared
@WSJ
:
"In June, $DASH had 57% of the U.S. market share, $UBER had 32% and $GRUB had 11%, according to YipitData."
More ahead of earnings from
@levisu
@MarketWatch
:
How well are U.K. food delivery platforms retaining their users? On average
@UberEats
and
@JustEatUK
outperformed
@Deliveroo
on order retention and user retention rates, with Deliveroo's user base composed of more new users vs. existing users. $UBER $JET.L $TKWY $ROO.L
@modestproposal1
Our data, which aligned with BKNG’s disclosure of 20%+ share of room nights from its non-hotel segment, suggests that despite Airbnb’s scale it grew well in excess of BKNG in 2018.
YipitData shows the cohort of first-time Pinners in 2Q22 declined by 2% Q/Q and 23% Y/Y, with an estimated ~52mm users saving or creating a Pin for the first time in 2Q22, the lowest figure since 1Q20. $PINS
Recent cohorts are more likely to become repeat users vs. older cohorts. This could signal that $AFRM has acquired more robust users in recent quarters.
Mega cap earnings for $AMZN, $MSFT and $GOOGL last week all aligned with our tracking of hyperscalers. In particular, our estimates for AWS Net Sales growth and Azure growth logged a 0% delta from reported.
What are we observing ahead of $UBER and $DASH earnings? $UBER's national Gross Food Sales market share remained ~flat Q/Q at 31%, while $DASH increased its national GFS by 1pp Q/Q and now controls 56% of the market.
Is the plateau in $SHOP merchants over the past year due to a saturated domestic market?
Our proprietary data (not shown) suggests this may have long-term implications on upgrades to Plus - 60-70% of new Plus merchants over the prior 3 quarters come from non-Plus merchants.
Despite office reopenings and lifted COVID restrictions, lunch customers are increasingly relying on delivery platforms to order their lunch. In Jan '22, lunch orders consisted of 17.9% of sales, a bump from the 16.2% of sales they made up in Jan '20.
Our $ETSY data through 6/22 suggests discounts are rising, continuing an upward trend to the highest non-holiday level we’ve seen, implying that sellers are possibly keeping prices low to combat weaker consumer demand.
In NYC's "fast grocery" market, Gopuff's share increased 3pp M/M to 53% in August while Getir's share remained ~flat M/M at 14%. Gorillas, the second largest player, lost share.
Just launched coverage of US inflation across CPI sub categories.
Homes sold above asking price remain near peak levels at nearly 60%, though early signs of price decreases have begun to appear in listings.
"The number of orders placed on major food-delivery apps $DASH, $UBER and $GRUB grew an average of 5% year-over-year in October and November, the slowest two-month growth since the pandemic, according to market research firm YipitData."
In April, we observed overall Shopee Y/Y growth largely unchanged from the levels we observed in March and 1Q22 despite the Ramadan holiday, which lasted from April 1 through May 1. $SE
Ahead of tomorrow's CPI reading, we just launched our US Inflation Tracker providing est. for key categories w/in the CPI basket, and analysis of real estate pricing and wage inflation trends. Our May data suggests Food at Home pricing growth accel vs. April:
We estimate U.S. global premium subscriber gross additions in Aug increased M/M, due to $SPOT initiating their 3Q global 3 month free trial & discounted promotion in mid-Aug this year.
With $WMT taking on $AMZN Prime Day with its massive sale this weekend, what are we observing?
Across $WMT's online sales, furniture sales have declined the most over the last 2 years.
YipitData’s 2Q22 Home Goods Market Share Index is now live, offering a look at the market share of the top 30 U.S. home goods retailers and brands by online and offline GMV:
Some key insights below 🧵
YipitData suggests that $DASH is already well ahead of $UBER in terms of its grocery and convenience businesses in aggregate. About 40% of $DASH's more than 25M monthly users are already paying for a DashPass membership that generally includes delivery.
On May 17, $GRUB ran their "Free Lunch" promo, promising participants $15 off their orders (excl. tax, tip and fees).
While only 3% of orders placed with a discount were truly free, the promise of a free lunch was enough to reel in customers.
Our $OPEN data shows that declining markups may pressure profitability in the coming months. We're sharing more insights during our webcast - which starts in 1 hour!
Hear from our analysts and register here:
How is the health of $AMZN's Prime membership base?
In the US, Prime membership continues to decrease though add rates have stabilized while churn has decreased, slowing the pace of the decline.
For $CVNA lower days to sale leads to lower depreciation and ultimately lifts retail GPU. We've seen the days to sale improve significantly over the last few quarters. Investors looking to understand directional trends to retail GPU should look to this metric.
"Unless $SHOP adds roughly twice as many merchants in the second half of 2022 as the first half, we estimate they could be on pace for the lowest net merchant additions in a year since at least 2018," YipitData analysts said.
@Reuters
@niveditabalu
YipitData shows tracked inflation decelerated through mid-August, however this is slightly offset by continued acceleration in Food at Home (largest tracked category by weight) and housekeeping supplies.
YipitData is now tracking discounting trends across U.S. retailers like $WMT, $TGT, $ULTA.
One key takeaway: $WMT's 3QTD 'General Merchandise' Y/Y discounting growth remains elevated, driven by an acceleration in Entertainment and sustained Apparel discounting growth.
Could $DASH's success be due to the strength of their loyalty program? DashPass users make up about 40% of monthly active users, but nearly 60% of all sales.
Has $DUOL improved its ability to convert users to Paid Subscribers?
Key markets that saw the most improvement in Paid Subs conversion (as a % of quarterly MAUs) in 2022 were Germany, Brazil, and the UK.
In contrast to the traditional seasonal trend of an increase in total employees during this period, our data shows observed total employees are stable to down vs the prior month (mid-November vs mid-October).
$UBER and $LYFT have both boosted their per-ride prices by more than 30% since 2019, according to market research firm YipitData.
@barronsonline
@firstadopter
Last year we made 3,357 mistakes! That's right - the 2019 Yipit Momus awards are a wrap. Each time we make a mistake, we pay a dollar to our Momus account (yep, named after the Greek god of satire and harmless fun). We spend that money celebrating our mistakes with a big party.
$AMZN significantly outpaces peers like $WMT and $TGT in online home office GMV with sales more than double all their closest competitors combined.
We also observed $TGT surpass $W in online office furniture sales from 2Q20 to 3Q22.
Read our deep dive:
YipitData analysis shows $OPEN implemented price cuts on a greater share of their active listings in Apr and May relative to earlier in 2022.
What does this mean for profitability? Hear from our $OPEN analysts next Wed during our webinar:
We're partnering with founder of ,
@thenewb
, to explore the evolution of customer behavior on top grocery delivery platforms and share opinions on the industry’s future. Register for our webinar this Thurs. at 2pm ET here:
COVID led to a sharp increase in demand for home goods via online retailers. Between 1Q20 and 1Q22, $AMZN saw an 84% increase in GMV in the home category - the most of any retailer.
Miss our latest
#covid19
webcast from 3/5? Check out the replay to get caught up to speed on the
#coronavirus
as we give the rundown on 5 industries in 15 minutes.
According to YipitData, the average ride-hailing fare was ~19% higher on a per-mile basis in 4Q21 versus the same period in 2019 in the US, with fares increasing as much as 34% in Seattle and 27% in Los Angeles $UBER $LYFT. Read more from
@niveditabalu
:
Our US Food Delivery product tracks market share on a national and regional level. In Jan,
@DoorDash
gained 1pp of national GFS market share, while
@UberEats
lost 1pp and
@Grubhub
remained ~flat. We'll continue monitoring $DASH's market share leadership as it evolves.
While the promo aided an influx of orders and users on the day of, the impact did not extend far beyond May 17.
In Jan, $GRUB comprised 27% of the total sales market share. By May, that figure dropped down to 24%.
Read more of our analysis on our blog:
Through 7/3, trailing 28-day indexed active users for $DASH, $GRUB and $UBER have been declining since the latest peak in the week ending 5/22, while changes in trailing 28-day order frequency and AOV have remained mixed.
This month's publication of YipitData's U.S. Inflation Tracker is LIVE!
Our data suggests wage growth continued to decel from peak levels into June. Learn how clients benefit from our actionable insights ahead of the CPI:
Wayfair is a nice proxy for delivery times, ie supply chains.
Here is a chart showing delivery times. Orange reflects less than 7 days.
Wayfair is currently shipping at its fastest rate ever.