I have trained to be a surgeon for the past 10 years. Today is my last day of that training.
Most of you don't know this, but when I'm not tweeting about stocks & real estate I spend 60+ hours a week doing facial plastic & reconstructive surgery.
My wife and I are moving to
Wish you were a VC?
You can now buy Opendoor at just above its Series D valuation, raised 6 years ago when the company was operating in 2 markets and annual revenue was equivalent to 2 weeks of today's.
Anything else this asymmetric in the public markets?
This is the American Dream.
My pregnant wife and I spending the day putting together office chairs and furniture for the small surgical practice we open next month.
This feels like such an improbable outcome for my life. I moved 20+ times by the time I was 18, went to 5 high
At the time of Opendoor's IPO, 1 in every 2,300 U.S. home sales occurred on their platform.
As of February 2022, 1 out of every 130 home sales are through Opendoor.
Probably nothing.
$OPEN
Which of these disruptive investments will generate more alpha over the next 5 years?
Data: $PLTR vs $SNOW
Real Estate: $OPEN, $Z, $OPAD
E-commerce: $SHOP, $SE, $ETSY
FinTech: $SQ, $SOFI, $UPST
Metaverse: $NVDA, $U, $RBLX
Crypto: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL
Happy to announce I joined the $STRONG army today. Bought my first two nodes. This equates to roughly $3.4k in passive, monthly income. Will continue to build more nodes from here.
@Strongblock_io
Opendoor has 3,624 homes pending sale for which we have transaction data today.
For this cohort we see:
- 16.6% gross profit margin
- $65.4k gross profit per home
- Greater than 2X Q4 profitability metrics
- Mean holding times of 106 days
Probably nothing.
$OPEN
Yesterday I graduated from Stanford OHNS residency. I was beyond honored to be awarded resident teacher of the year.
Over the past five years I logged:
-18k hours
-3.2k surgical cases
-2k clinic patients
-1.5k consults
-6 slash airways
-Innumerable mentors/friendships
Onwards.
Not sure who came up with "42% of Opendoor homes were sold for a loss in August," but they forgot to include Opendoor's 5% fee in the calculation.
The actual percentage - including fee - is 24%.
Not terrific, I agree, but being 75% off is absurd analysis.
$OPEN
Woke up this morning to find out I earned my first $STRONG last night.
Am I the only one who checks this dashboard 20 times a day?
#nodearmy
@Strongblock_io
Which companies have the best chance of becoming the mega-caps of 2030?
👾 $PLTR
👾 $SNOW
📺 $ROKU
📺 $APPS
🕹 $SE
🕹 $U
🏡 $OPEN
🏡 $Z
🏦 $SOFI
🏦 $HOOD
💳 $AFRM
💳 $UPST
🧬 $TDOC
🧬 $DNA
🚁 $LILM
🏎 $LCID
🚀 $RKLB
What’s not here but should be?
1/ Alright, I woke up early this morning and tuned into the $PLTR earnings call. Here are my takeaways, a thread.
Revenue growth of 36% yoy, driven by commercial.
For long-term investors, it’s important to identify those core holdings that form the spine of the portfolio.
2021 was cruel to growth, but the thesis has never been stronger for these six, my core picks heading into 2022.
$OPEN
$SOFI
$PLTR
$U
$ETH
$SOL
What are yours?
19% of home sellers have lowered prices in May.
Yet through May Opendoor's gross profit margin remains strong, 200 bps higher than Q1's EPS beat and surprise profitability.
How is this possible?
If you own real-time demand data, you know future home price dynamics.
$OPEN
1/ Pleased to present my finalized Q1 estimates for Opendoor, based on:
- 11.7k observed transactions
- 8.7k GPM datapoints
- 88% historical capture rate from our algos
Given my confidence in these numbers, I am raising my $OPEN estimates.
Without further ado…
$SOFI added a record half a million members in Q4. And remember, the Super Bowl happened in Q1…in SoFi Stadium.
These members are now in the walled garden of SoFi, and each and every 2nd and 3rd product purchased is fat-margin-fintech-nirvana.
Congrats
@anthonynoto
and co.
As of February 2022, 0.76% of all U.S. home sales occurred through Opendoor.
$OPEN marketshare by metro:
- Atlanta: 6.4%
- Phoenix: 5.5%
- Houston (next closest): 2.1%
The remaining growth opportunity here is ludicrous.
Opendoor's 2021 results are in.
In today's piece I delve deep into a company transforming residential real estate. We discuss early Q1 numbers, Amazon, and what the future profit center of $OPEN looks like.
Grab a mug of hot cocoa and enjoy.
We are in the housing endgame now.
You've heard Opendoor is facing heavy losses.
Take a moment to examine the actual operating performance of a company besieged by one of the fastest housing crashes we've ever seen. Pretty incredible response.
$OPEN
Over the past year Datadoor generated more profit than I was paid in six years of surgical training, combined.
Here's how
@SebastianSzturo
and I - Wall Street outsiders -- grew our niche business to be the dominant alt data used by hedge funds who invest in one particular stock.
Seems like the most common fear around a longterm investment in Opendoor is a housing downturn, leaving $OPEN holding the bag on billions in inventory.
Here's why that won't happen -- how Opendoor was built precisely to navigate downturns.
Happily welcome contrarian takes.
Update on Opendoor's median purchase price in Phoenix.
Week of June 13: $491,500
Week of Aug 15: $405,200
$86,300 less (17.6%) in 2 months 🤯
This is the margin lever in a down market -- Spread.
$OPEN
At
@DatadoorIO
we analyze millions of Opendoor datapoints on a weekly basis. There's probably no non-employee closer to their current/forward data than me.
$OPEN has to go bankrupt for the current price to make sense.
And all I'm seeing from the data is a profitable company.
For the first time in its 8 year history Opendoor listed more than 1,000 homes for sale in one week (May 8 - 14).
This is 70% more listings than the first week of January, 2022.
Probably nothing. $OPEN
Opendoor's Q2 2022 earnings are tomorrow after the close.
Here is
@DatadoorIO
's finalized estimates for the quarter (as well as our historical accuracy).
Congrats on another profitable quarter $OPEN team!
Here is my deep dive on Unity, where I discuss gaming, AR/VR, Epic, the metaverse, and why Unity $U has become my fourth core holding.
I found there is no industry of tomorrow $U will not disrupt. Share and enjoy 👋
Today is my last day of call as a surgical resident, ever.
Although it was a grueling, unglamorous 5 years, I'll probably look back on residency as one of the most formative experiences of my life.
@StanfordOHNS
, it's been an honor.
Credit Suisse $24 PT on Opendoor.
Interesting note that mentions "widening spreads since the Fall" and that Q1 benefited from only minimal HPA.
Who knew!? $OPEN
Opendoor has sold/under contract on 93% of all homes purchased in November.
Adjusted gross margin on these homes?
11%.
And every monthly cohort since Nov has a higher margin than this...
Don't call it a comeback bc but second half of 2023 looks big for $OPEN 👀
We did it 🦾
This is
@DatadoorIO
- a dashboard for Opendoor transaction data. Beta will be live next week.
We can get the first few hundred ppl on the beta. More each week after. Retweet for early access.
$OPEN
I’m going to share some $OPEN data most people don’t have access to.
Q4 earnings are less than 3 weeks away, but as home transactions are public data, you can get a sneak peek (if you know where to look). Let’s dive in.
We are in the thick of the worst housing crash of the past half century.
Despite this, Opendoor currently has double digit embedded margins (EM) in 45% of its active markets, and positive EM in 91% of active markets.
Yup, model's broken, priced for bankruptcy makes sense 👌
Between April 5-6, Opendoor sold 2X more homes (by revenue) than any two-day period in its history.
Seems like consumer demand for simplicity, certainty and speed is alive and well.
$OPEN
BTIG just released a report today on the underdiscussed power of Opendoor Exclusives, reiterated Buy, PT $15.
Oh and they cited
@DatadoorIO
in the report. We made it Ma!
Congrats to the Opendoor team on a strong quarter. Intriguing Zillow partnership announced and Exclusives highlighted.
No surprises on the numbers.
@DatadoorIO
estimates were on average 2.8% from actual for homes sold, revenue, gross margin, gross profit, and homes sold👀
Finalized Opendoor Q1 Estimates are now live on .
As a sneak peak, we expect:
- Revenue up 610% year over year
- Gross profit up nearly 2X sequentially
- Adjusted EBITDA up 4X consensus levels
$OPEN 🤯
In May, nearly 1 in 3 of Opendoor's Austin home sales were closed through their Exclusives marketplace.
These homes were sold with no commission and within 2 weeks of listing.
$OPEN
Opendoor has now sold its 200th home through its FSBO platform, Opendoor Exclusives. Conversion rate 7.2%.
$OPEN will sell 40k+ homes in 2022. If Exclusives was available nationwide at this conversion rate, I estimate an uplift of $35 - $50 mil to the bottom line.
5,625 Opendoor transactions so far through the first 20 days of April:
- 1,493 sold
- 4,132 pending
- Sold gross profit margin 14.71%
- Pending gross profit margin 16.77%
- $2.3 B in revenue booked
- $4.4 B market cap
What an opportunity.
$OPEN
For those curious why Opendoor is running 2X higher than the broader tech cohort today, a large data analytics firm just published their estimates for Opendoor's Q1.
And they agree my estimates are conservative.
🤷🏼♀️ See you May 5.
$OPEN
We expect blowout Opendoor numbers for Q1, paired with lower revenue guidance for Q2 (albeit higher quality revenue, higher GPM).
No clue how the market will respond, but underlying business has never been stronger.
Congrats to the $OPEN team on the early '22 execution.
Opendoor has a Phoenix problem.
We popped the hood to evaluate how the ibuyer is managing this frenetic, hairpin real estate market.
Spoiler Alert: there are some problems, but nothing like Zillow Offers Q3 '21.
$OPEN
Opendoor has been marked for dead.
But the numbers tell a different story.
Here's a breakdown of Opendoor's early Q4 performance in one of the deadliest housing declines we've seen.
$OPEN
Opendoor's buy-to-list premiums have never been higher.
Purchase volumes are ramping.
Holding times have been cut in half since April.
Oh, and homes are appreciating again?
Probably nothing.
@realEstateTrent
Try this. Top medical schools in America, first year out of school. Congrats, you're an intern!
Base salary: $50k
Bonus: 😂
And, don't forget you're on 24 hr call every third day and there's no lunch breaks.
Will be posting Opendoor’s Q1 ‘22 transaction data tomorrow AM, including
- Transaction volume
- Gross profit margins
- Market breakdown
- Holding time trends
- Projections for Q1 results
Given the share price, my findings might surprise you.
$OPEN
This week, the difference between Opendoor's buy-to-list premium ('forward-looking' metric) and their buy-to-sale premium ('right now' metric) is 1,700 bps 🤯
This gap has never been wider, and illustrates what's to come.
Calling the bottom on Opendoor's margins.
$OPEN
They say selling is finance, but buying is romance.
This is the story of the secret "start up within a startup" that's putting the romance back in homebuying:
Opendoor Exclusives.
$OPEN
1/ Took an hour this morning to examine Opendoor’s progress scaling the 23 new markets launched in 2021.
What I found is these markets are beginning to contribute materially to both revenue and profits.
Let’s dive in.
$OPEN
Update on my Opendoor Thesis:
Median price of homes Opendoor purchased in Phoenix, Q2 2022:
$476,000
Median price one year later, Q2 2023:
$325,000
Opendoor has:
1.) Widened spreads dramatically (500+ bps)
2.) Narrowed buybox to smaller, lower end and easier to price homes.
This past week I dug deep into the data to figure out how much home price appreciation impacted Opendoor's Q1 result. The answer surprised me.
Introducing Spread: Margin for all cycles.
$OPEN
Sunday night breakdown:
Today, 96% of Opendoor's active listings are listed at a positive margin.
Of the homes listed at negative margin, 93% were purchased PRIOR to 2023.
Of all listings purchased in 2023, only FOUR homes are listed at a negative margin.
Probably nothing.
1/ Opendoor just reported Q4 earnings, but Q1 wraps up in 2 weeks.
Let's wheel in the microscope to take a look at Q1 performance in some granularity. Why wait 10 weeks for an earnings call, right?
Here’s my data-driven sneak peek on $OPEN ’s current quarter.
Whew thank god my wife doesn’t track my portfolio on a daily basis.
That said, I’m a buyer today. Same stocks, same thesis, better value. Here’s what I bought this morning:
$OPEN $SOFI $PLTR $U
Opendoor's buy to list (BTL) premium dropped below buy to sale (BTS) in February, the cleanest leading indicator that margin had peaked.
Today, BTL is flirting above BTS, which indicates higher margins on the horizon for $OPEN (Q3 timeline).
Who knew?
$OPEN down 10% due to a ruling on buyers agent commissions.
More nonsense. Want to clear this up.
In general, Opendoor charges a homeseller 5% fee to buy a home. This is usually not a burden for the homeseller, as they would otherwise pay 3% to EACH of the buyer's agent and
So far in Q3 Florida is Opendoor's largest state by sales volume AND highest margin state.
Across the markets of Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa, $OPEN's mean gross margin is 14.6%.
Opendoor's pending sales pipeline is nearing a new record high.
Today's pipeline nearly eclipses the record set in Q1 '22, when Opendoor sold 130 homes per day.
Price cuts + buyer demand revival = volume.
1/ Real estate is wild right now. Curious about Opendoor’s ability to price a fast RE environment, I zoomed in on 5 of its largest markets:
Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Las Vegas
Let’s see how $OPEN is tracking home price appreciation in these cities.
We've been building 🛠️
Introducing HomeWise, the first AI assistant for residential real estate.
Buying or selling a home?
HomeWise is like having a real estate genius in your pocket - one that doesn't charge commission.
Opendoor just launched a marketplace that will permanently change how we buy & sell homes.
...But they also announced their worst quarterly performance ever and guided there's more pain to come.
So what's going on?
Answers 👇
$OPEN
Opendoor's percent of Phoenix homes under contract:
July 28: 9%
Aug 23: 20%
Up 1100 bps in 3 weeks.
Home sales volume is coming back in a big way.
$OPEN
In the month of June 2022 Opendoor paid $446k per home to acquire inventory.
Fast forward to November, the average price was $345k, or $110k less per home.
The problem?
Opendoor bought 4X more homes in June than it did November.