Inspired by
@AriWRees
, 2024 seems like as good a time as any to do some Salt Lake promotion about our incredible public lands and share some of my favorite places in the Wasatch foothills and canyons
Trump was administered an IV infusion of purified, concentrated anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG. If he weren't positive after that something would be deeply wrong. This is not evidence of seroconversion.
There's a lot of prediction and uncertainty on the future of
#SARSCoV2
in the human population. I'll do a little thread explaining why I *think* it will end up similar to the 4 "common-cold" endemic CoVs, but the time-scale on which this happens is up to us.
I want to spend a bit of time clearly laying out where
#SARSCoV2
probably comes from, and how it could have ended up in Wuhan. Though it can't be ruled out there is currently no, zero evidence for a lab escape scenario while there is ample precedent for zoonotic spillover.
Glenn wants specifics, so here’s a specific lie he told. The email from Kristian to Fauci said some features of
#SARSCoV2
looked potentially engineered, but they needed to investigate further. Glenn writes they concluded COVID came from a lab. A lie. He thinks you’re stupid.
One of the most bizarre and still-unexplained episodes in the COVID pandemic was the group of scientists who told Fauci in late January they concluded COVID came from a lab. Within days, they publicly recanted, then received millions in grants from NIAID, controlled by Fauci.
@StuPolitics
Ah yes, the totally sensible economic argument that the richest country in the world, which prints money for the world, is too poor to not keep letting non-rich people die for no reason.
This narrative of Tony Fauci as puppet master pulling the strings of virologists the world over is so stupid it's hard to believe the journalists pushing it actually believe it.
The key figure from Moderna. 6.4-fold drop in neutralization against the SA variant, but neutralizing titers remain >1:100 for all sera tested (and generally much more). We’re okay because starting titers (2 doses) are >1:1000.
If you're spending time undermining a single-dose, fridge-stable, highly tolerable COVID-19 vaccine...even if it's in good faith you need to think really hard about whether you're making a positive impact or possibly getting people killed.
I would really urge fellow virologists not to speak with anyone from the
@washingtonpost
at this point given the anti-scientific disinformation campaign led by one of its most prominent voices.
An Ebola virus strain from Asia first "emerged" in the Washington DC suburbs near a military BSL4 lab that actually *did* previously do offensive bioweapons research. It...didn't come from the lab.
faster than might happen through a normal course of co-evolution with a new host. I'll close by saying I could be totally wrong and maybe
#SARSCoV2
has nothing in common with the endemic CoVs. But I think we throw out existing knowledge at our peril.
@mattyglesias
N95 respirator masks are genuinely ineffective without proper fit testing and training. Health care workers are trained, everyone else isn’t. Regular surgical masks are good for sick people to wear, not useful for protecting healthy people.
Given the clear signals of convergent evolution of
#SARSCoV2
it should be blindingly obvious that this virus did not emerge “pre-adapted” to humans. It emerged good enough.
The latest FOIA dump from
@theintercept
on EcoHealth Alliance-WIV funding is extremely strong evidence the WIV was only working on SARS1-like viruses. Not a hint of experimental work on viruses related to to
#SARSCoV2
. Goes strongly against the plausibility of a lab release.
The virus will continue to mutate, and multiple exposures are better than 1 or 2 anyway. The good news is vaccine-induced immunity looks better than immunity from natural infection. Science is amazing! We are going to see flare-ups of
#SARSCoV2
over time as immunity
@sethmoulton
The silent majority that wants a push led by white men to unseat the first female Speaker, and most effective legislator of our lifetime? You think that’s what the base of the Democratic Party wants?
survivors would be horrific. So we *have* to use the 21st century tools at our disposal to accelerate the time-frame for pushing
#SARSCoV2
into this kind of mostly harmless ecological niche. We have to vaccinate - as close to everyone as possible. And we'll need boosters.
We just announced that the first participants have been dosed with our modified COVID-19 vaccines, designed to address the potential need for booster vaccine candidates, in an amendment to the ongoing Phase 2 clinical study. Read more:
A coronavirus pandemic was essentially predicted. So it happened. If it was mundanely foreseeable there’s no reason to reach for outlandish scenarios as to how it started.
The amazing thing to me about the lab leak hypothesis isn't that people find it plausible - shit happens. It's that none of the *journalists* pushing it the last week or two seem to care whether there's any evidentiary support for it.
wanes among some populations, new variants arise, or when the virus hits communities with low vaccine uptake. That means there will be local or regional needs for public health measures to come back temporarily. We *have* to be prepared to do this.
Notably despite relatively encouraging results, they’re all doing exactly what
@trvrb
recommended - testing a booster based on the SA variant immediately and developing a protocol for it.
We just announced that the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine retains neutralizing activity against emerging variants first identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa. Read more:
MERS-CoV can infect lung microvascular endothelial cells in culture. Mouse hepatitis virus (prototypical CoV), loves liver endothelial cells, like really loves them. Few things new under the virology sun. It's a bad virus, we don't have to make it sound extra weird though.
🤔 Is coronavirus a VASCULAR disease too? New Lancet study suggests
#COVID19
might also be vascular disease - with
#SARSCoV2
virus now invading endothelial cells causing inflammatory cell death. We are not in a Kansas normal respiratory disease anymore. (Hat tip to
@DrZoeHyde
)
It's just incredible to me that
@washingtonpost
continues to have
@joshrogin
leading a disinformation campaign about
#SARSCoV2
origins and as a leading journalism entity shows no interest in other major theories regarding the virus origins. Just a massive failure of curiosity.
@StevenSalzberg1
This is insane. You can’t say it’s safe on a large scale based off of 45 people. And we unequivocally do not have the data to show they work. You’re just bolstering the idea there’s some conspiracy to hold back vaccines. Outrageously irresponsible.
Brief commentary on Robert Redfield not knowing what he's talking about. First, one recent paper suggests there *were* adaptive changes during early transmission in humans
Interesting - first report of a MERS-related virus in pangolins. Closely related to bat virus HKU4 which can infect human cells. Hopefully published soon.
Credible case reports of
#SARSCoV2
reinfections have started to emerge, in contrast to earlier reports that were certainly just persistent PCR+s. It's important to document these and studying such cases in large numbers will inform our understanding of SARS2 immunity. However
Missed this for a long time - SARS-CoV(1) was found in farmed civets outside Wuhan back in 2005, far extending its geographic range known from the 2002-2003 human epidemic.
It’s clearly not right to say there are no side effects. None were severe enough to outweigh what seems to be considerable benefit. But people need to be properly educated on what side effects to expect or we’re going to have a real problem.
On how he's doing after the Pfizer trial,
@WalterIsaacson
: "No side effects at all. And clearly they've had 44,000 people go through this trial, half of them getting the real vaccine. There's been no side effects. There's no danger in these vaccines"
#AMRstaff
And the other good news is that even if we don't have vaccines for really little kids soon, the odds are so heavily in their favor with this virus. With aggressive vaccination and public health we can eliminate most of the mortality and morbidity caused by this virus *much*
Adding - big reason I am confident in resilience of vaccine efficacy in the face of new variants is super high neutralizing antibodies after two doses. They are *very* low after 1. This is courting disaster.
Much more than a week ago we have substantial scientific data to support the absolute necessity of a second dose. This is simply public health policy unsupported by available data. There’s no magic wand to make things true about the vaccines that aren’t.
The folks
@medpagetoday
asked what I thought of Robert Redfield's recent comments to CNN on
#SARSCoV2
...and I didn't think much of them. I try to explain why here
@CT_Bergstrom
I like this thread overall, but I think the first sentence is not strong enough. It is definitively not an engineered bioweapon, and I say that as a scientist who by nature and training avoids being definitive.
I think there's understandably a sense that SARS-CoV-2 must have emerged via an unusual scenario to be able to cause such mayhem in humans and this is coloring a lot of analysis. Stark reality is that probably nothing special happened to this virus recently, except we ran into it
The important thing to remember folks, is that viruses evolve quickly but hundreds of millions of years of evolution has produced a hell of an immune system.
Glenn Greenwald has the thinnest possible understanding of these issues, topped off with a brazen lie that proposing a lab leak was censored. The most vocal lab leak proponent got a book deal with a major publisher - the opposite of censorship. Greenwald thinks you’re suckers.
@GuptaR_lab
Nice data but one thing. TMPRSS2 is not a receptor - it cleaves at S2’. With less furin cleavage at S1/S2 as you found it makes sense omicron is more dependent on endosomal pathway. Very similar to mouse hepatitis virus strains that have different S1/S2 sites.
The idea that after 6 months people are immunologically naive is simply wrong. Nothing is absolute but the data clearly shows memory cells persist and even expand past 6 months. And variants don’t (so far) impact cellular immunity.
@SunnyL723
@dgurdasani1
That is plainly wrong - people die on re infection with variants different to the original infecting virus. Immunity from natural infection decays within 6 months and often earlier
there's a huge catch. The period of time it took from emergence to mostly harmless for those other viruses may have been years, it could have been a decade! We can't afford that kind of time-span, the death toll, economic toll, and toll on the health of
Neutralization data for
#omicron
is coming in fast now, and it doesn't all agree. Some is as expected, some is better than expected. I don't know which is right, neither does anyone else. So I'd advise measured reactions, boosters, and waiting for real world epi data.
I’m not aware of any evidence that people infected with omicron are not contagious at symptom onset. We need to tread *very* carefully with this kind of stuff.
We can use this “new” relationship between symptom onset and infectiousness to our advantage!
It’s a feature, not a bug. Now that the world has pre-existing immunity, we have to adjust our thinking.
Newly Symptomatic and Ag neg?
Probably not infectious now… test again tmrw
3/
@mtracey
I think the day when you’re tweeting out Hitlers justifications for killing the Jews as earnest is a good time to take a couple days to cool off and make sure this is a hill worth dying on. If it is, fair enough and that’s informative. But worth making sure.
There are currently 4 endemic human CoVs: OC43, 229E, NL63, HKU1. OC43 and HKU1 are sort of closely related, same for 229E and NL63. Overall, pretty divergent though. More different than SARS1 and SARS2, for example. They all came from animals, and they all cause mostly
My take is obviously experts have been wrong about some things, but viewing this as a failure is a fundamental misunderstanding. If you want scientists to know everything important about a new virus you’ll need to wait years. That isn’t really an option here...
because we start building up immunity as kids and keep doing it with repeated exposure as young adults. So, will
#SARSCoV2
end up as "just another endemic CoV"? The truth is, I don't know, but I *think* probably yes - BUT
This is so stupid. Without collaborating we wouldn’t even know about this huge pool of SARS-like viruses in bats. We’d have no idea where the pandemic came from. We’d be that much farther behind the game. A shame science is being subjugated to hawkishness in these pages
Biden said that he's considering lifting the travel restrictions on people who've recently been in any one of eight southern African nations.
The measures were imposed to slow the spread of omicron, which is now the dominant strain in the U.S.
This is a massive underestimate of asymptomatic infections. It’s likely that the large majority of breakthrough infections are asymptomatic, do not transmit, and are essentially irrelevant from a medical and public health standpoint.
Latest data on breakthrough infections out of the CDC:
123,000,000+ fully vaccinated
354 asymptomatic infections (0.0002%)
1,368 COVID-related hospitalizations (0.0011%)
290 COVID-related deaths (0.0002%)
The vaccines work extremely well so do get vaccinated when you can.
Now, the point here isn't that
#SARSCoV2
isn't serious. It's devastating! The point is that a lot of CoVs can be devastating in older and vulnerable populations. When it comes to
#SARSCoV2
thats literally hundreds of millions people worldwide. With the other CoVs, it's not
Finally, from a "biological standpoint" as he says, there's no reason to think serial passage in culture produces a virus more transmissible in humans. My conclusion - Redfield (who declares I'M A VIROLOGIST) is in fact a terrible virologist.
@mtracey
Oh I read all the tweets, but you’re right, I should circle back to your long-form revisionism. Happy to make that time investment to learn who was really, at root, responsible for murdering my relatives.
Supposed Chinese obfuscation about the Wuhan Institute of Virology has often been taken as evidence of a lab leak. But here’s some real shadiness and opacity about what animals were for sale at the Huanan market. This must be a follow-up priority
SARS1 and MERS are notorious for hitting older and sicker folks harder than anyone else. Their age-gradent is severe. They have this in common with
#SARSCoV2
, but of course many more cases of the latter means more disease for everyone
These viruses infect us as kids and it's pretty harmless.
#SARSCoV2
, we all know by now is usually pretty mild in kids. What about the really dangerous CoVs SARS1 and MERS?
And here we go, the lie propagates. One guy with a position at Hopkins throws it out there and it goes mainstream. We DO NOT know yet if vaccines that have proved safe in 45 healthy people are safe and effective.
So can we get any insight at all into how the endemic viruses behave in the same types of populations that are so susceptible to
#SARSCoV2
? It's hard - but we're not totally clueless. An outbreak of OC43 in a nursing home where 8/95 infected residents died
One thing striking to me about much of the
#SARSCoV2
#COVID19
discussion is how little leading CoV experts feature in it. The younger PIs are on twitter but too busy. The older PIs with 100s of years collective experience are inactive on twitter and largely absent from media.
Researchers have established that SARS-CoV-2, which is responsible for the disease known as covid-19, can infect patients who are also afflicted by other coronaviruses,
possibly leading to an exchange in genetic material.
@CT_Bergstrom
@jflier
@stephaniemlee
Our issue is that if academic disagreement gets so personal and so political, we are doomed.
It's worse than Covid.
Stanford authors deserve to have their study gutted, but not the personal attacks. That is a slippery slope even if they go on bad TV shows.
Plenty of serious names on this letter. While I strongly believe a "natural" zoonotic event is the most likely origin of the pandemic, the arguments put forward here are well-considered and well-justified. Further investigation is warranted.
In letter published in
@ScienceMagazine
today, I join 17 other scientists in calling for further investigation of
#SARSCoV2
origins, including objective consideration of both accidental lab leak and natural zoonosis: (1/n)
I’m aware of no experiment ever conducted (let alone often!!!) to make a coronavirus more deadly to humans. Please,
@washingtonpost
consider correcting this. This makes virologists look psychotic.
@StevenSalzberg1
This is really infuriating. You have a position at Hopkins and lots of credibility and you’re just spouting absolute dishonesty about the status of vaccine development. It’s unconscionable.
The idea that the initial vaccine course didn’t produce immune memory is actually a nasty little tidbit of misinformation. Boosters are about circulating antibody levels, no evidence of issues with memory.
"The first two doses were provided so close together that they probably really served as two primes...This third dose is probably going to serve as a true booster in terms of inducing immune memory and...a more durable response," says
@ScottGottliebMD
on Covid-19 booster shots.
So if
#SARSCoV2
has this in common with SARS1 and MERS, does that distinguish it significantly from the endemic viruses, those mostly harmless ones? It's hard to say since SARS1,
#SARSCoV2
, and MERS infect people as adults for the first time. We *all* get the endemic viruses
@BallouxFrancois
I agree it's exploitative but calling it equivalent to antivax propaganda, which deliberately attempts to get people killed, is really very wrong in my view. Minimizes to malice of the antivax movement.
US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.
Or an outbreak of NL63 in a long-term care setting where 3/20 patients died. The risk-factors: heart disease, dementia, hypertension, diabetes, and lung disease. Same risk factors as
#SARSCoV2