Roger Myerson @rbmyerson Twitter profile

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

In 1980s, US Defense spending averaged 7.3% of GDP. It dropped to 5.3% of GDP in 1990s after Soviet threats ended. So Americans were spending 2.0% of GDP to block Russian aggression. Now US spends just 0.3% of GDP to block Russian aggression in Ukraine.

FRED Economic Data

Shares of gross domestic product: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Federal: National defense

fred.stlouisfed.org

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

...So it is hard to understand how anyone can argue that spending 0.3% of GDP to block Russian aggression is unsustainable, when we used to spend 2.0% in the decades before 1989.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

Over a century after the end of World War I, it still demands deeper understanding from us, if we hope to avoid such disasters in the future. My paper on "Game Theory and the First World War" has appeared in Journal of Economic Literature.

Game Theory and the First World War

(June 2023) - Books by Scott Wolford and Roger Ransom show how economic theories of games and decisions can be fruitfully applied to problems in World War I. This vital application offers fundamental...

www.aeaweb.org

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

11 months

US defense spending fell by 2.0% of GDP when Soviet Russia ended. So we may expect 2.0% more of US GDP spent on defense against Russia's new threat if Ukraine lost. Support for Ukraine since 2/2022 has cost only 0.3% of US GDP. How can any American question the value of this aid?

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

7 months

What JD Vance ignores: 1 Our limited capacity does not justify our doing nothing, and funding aid now will encourage investments to increase capacity. 2 The obstacle to negotiation is not Kyiv's land aims but Putin's goal of destroying Ukraine as an independent democratic nation.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

On Sept 17, I will be in NYC to join @paulkrugman , @JohnEdHerbst , @Mylovanov , @brik_t , @jmurtazashvili , and many others at an event for Ukraine and the Kyiv School of Economics. Please consider joining us! 🇺🇦Register or donate here:

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 years

A recent talk urged that Americans should never again elect a President who has not served responsibly in a lower office under our constitutional system of government. We need leaders who have respected democratic norms & provided effective public service.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

I stand by our statement for Biden's policies, against risks of 2nd Trump presidency. But the debate showed that America could be better served by Biden stepping aside to let another candidate lead for his agenda now. I've contacted WhiteHouse to say this.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

@Mylovanov 3 factors for 🇺🇦 now. 1: Long Donbas conflict enabled 🇺🇦 to find & root out corruption in military spending. 2: Hromada reforms promoted local leadership that people trust in 🇺🇦. 3: Government in 🇺🇦 fights for independence. Taliban in 🇦🇫 fought for independence.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

8 months

@k_sonin @PaulR_Gregory @timothymfrye It is a badge of honor to be included in this list. I just wish I did more to deserve it.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

10 months

Local Politics in Nations and Empires (new paper): Successful autocratic states make local leaders dependent on national political approval. In successful democracies, national leaders are dependent on local political approval.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

A dictator from day 1 would be bad for America, and we should testify to that fact as patriotic Americans. As economists we can testify that his policies would not help against inflation either.

16 Nobel prize-winning economists see a Trump inflation bomb

The Nobel laureates are lending their academic prestige to a political argument Biden's team has been making for weeks.

www.axios.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 months

A strategy for peace in Ukraine, with @k_sonin & @Mylovanov : US & NATO should offer credible commitment to help defend Ukraine against future Russian aggression, while countering Kremlin's lies about defensive commitments threatening the Russian people.

How NATO Can Help End the Ukraine War | by Roger Myerson, Timothy Mylovanov and Konstantin Sonin -...

Roger Myerson, Timothy Mylovanov and Konstantin Sonin view security guarantees from the US and its Atlantic allies as prerequisites of a negotiated peace.

www.project-syndicate.org

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

The new book from @cepr_org on Supporting Ukraine (editors @YGorodnichenko , V. Rashkovan) includes my chapter on Postwar Reconstruction Assistance and Local Governments in Ukraine.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

John Adams described July 1776 as the moment when 13 clocks managed to strike at the same time. So let us remember Independence Day as an anniversary celebration of American unity, with all our diversity. "E pluribus unum" is still a vital principle in 2024. Happy 4th of July!

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

To learn from failures of past state-building missions, we must rethink our fundamental theories of democracy. My new paper in Journal of Democracy argues for the vital importance of local politics in democratic state-building.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

8 months

NYTimes suggests withholding aid could press Ukraine to settle, as if "settling with Russia" = "ceding territory". But the Kremlin's goal is to destroy Ukraine as an independent democratic nation. Aiding Ukraine helps press Russians to settle with Ukraine.

Hard Lessons Make for Hard Choices 2 Years Into the War in Ukraine

Western sanctions haven’t worked. Weapons from allies are running low. Pressure may build on Kyiv to seek a settlement, even from a weakened position.

www.nytimes.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

It was a privilege to present the @ecb Annual Research Conference's #JeanMonnetLecture on "Postwar reconstruction assistance and local government in Ukraine," with Oleksandra Keudel @sashkovska . Full lecture: Short summary:

Eighth ECB Annual Research Conference - Roger B. Myerson's concluding...

Roger B. Myerson, University of Chicago, held a Jean Monnet Lecture on "Postwar reconstruction assistance and local governments in Ukraine." The contents wer...

www.youtube.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

I will be participating in an online discussion about Ukraine on Monday, Nov 13, 7pm ET, with @BillKristol , @PeterWGalbrath , and @MarkCancian , sponsored by ClassAct HR73. More information is at

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

@LonesSmith I have advocated introducing Excel to young students as soon as they have learned the basic operations and decimal notation. Then your curve would just go straight up!

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, America and Britain promised to assure Ukraine's independence (so that Ukraine would surrender its Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia). Invoking this treaty could help Ukraine more than a distant prospect of NATO membership.

Three Ways America Should Respond to the Ukraine Crisis

We want the world to see that Ukraine's peaceful surrender of nuclear weapons has earned it access to conventional weapons when it truly needs them to defend its borders. The United States should...

www.huffpost.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

7 months

...3 US aid can make a big difference in Russians' willingness to support Putin's campaign to conquer Ukraine, by greatly increasing its costs, even without Ukrainian forces advancing on the ground. @JDVance1 's misleading article is in today's NYTimes.

JD Vance

@JDVance

7 months

"The Biden administration has no viable plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans confront this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess and broker for peace." --Me, in the NY Times this morning.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

8 months

In US presidential primaries, voters in each party are overwhelmingly supporting their front-runner, in spite of widespread concerns. Are Americans so divided that each side must send messages of party-solidarity to the other side now? November is the time for party solidarity.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 months

The foundations of social theory should depend on an understanding of how our human species evolved. My new paper in Human Nature argues that economic property rights became more important to our ancestors when bipedalism freed hands for making things.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

To support Ukraine more effectively against Russian aggression, American leaders should be urged to talk more about the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 and less about the future of NATO. <>

President of Ukraine should talk about guarantees under the Budapest Memorandum, not about NATO...

The path out of the current crisis will depend on leadership from Ukraine, but let me focus on the message...

voxukraine.org

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

The ancients understood the tragedy of great leader who is brought to ruin by the very attributes that raised him to greatness. This letter seems to foretell such tragedy.

Read Biden’s Letter to Congressional Democrats

“I am firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump.”

www.nytimes.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

It was a privilege to participate at Berkeley this week in the discussion on Rebuilding Ukraine with @B_Eichengreen , @gerardrolanducb , and @YGorodnichenko

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

@caseybmulligan Thanks, @caseybmulligan . A dictator from day 1 would be bad for America, and we should testify to that fact as patriotic Americans. As economists we can testify that his policies would not help against inflation either.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 years

In The Hill, I argue for a broader definition of national security priorities, which should include defense against catastrophic risks in public health and the environment, not just against military threats.

How America should redefine its national security after pandemic

Our leaders have to make decisions about other world risks.

thehill.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

I recently discussed two underappreciated aspects of the situation in Ukraine: the impact of recent decentralization reforms in Ukraine, and why Putin should want to relax censorship of war news in Russia. See and

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

11 months

Total US government support for Ukraine (military & financial & humanitarian) from 2/2022 to 10/2023 was under $80 billion, less than 0.3% of US GDP. The EU gave Ukraine significantly more.

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

Tom Tugendhat, a British MP and Afghanistan veteran, has spoken critical words that Americans need to hear: <> "...Let's stop talking about forever wars. Forever peace is bought, not cheaply, but hard, through determination and the will to endure."

Afghanistan veteran MP says Taliban takeover has caused "anger, grief...

Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat, a veteran who served in Afghanistan, told MPs in the UK's House of Commons about his fears of a "forever war".He told MPs the ...

www.youtube.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

@caseybmulligan What can deter a supreme leader from violating the Constitution? Fear that a violation would shock essential supporters from trusting and supporting him. A constitution would fail if a leader who violated its norms could still get support to retain power.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 months

@k_sonin @JDVance1 If Trump is thinking that he should now act as the great unifier and set his VP candidate as the campaign’s attack dog, then JD Vance is the perfect pick for him.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 years

To achieve unity, Joe Biden should visit the reddest states, to talk with voters and local officials about their concerns. Recent Democratic congressional candidates can assist this outreach to red-state voters. See <> (with Kael Weston).

How Joe Biden can achieve unity

He must reach out to voters on the other side.

thehill.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

5 years

My new paper on "State-building lessons from the British Empire" is available at (The 3 essential principles are Decentralization, Continuity, and Cooperation.)

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

On how to prepare for future stabilization missions, see Keith Mines book "Why Nation-Building Matters" and my extensive review of it:

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

8 months

@SpeakerJohnson : Please let the House vote on Ukraine aid before March 15, when Russians vote on Putin's reelection. Russian doubts about Putin's war are our only hope to weaken his call for a strong mandate. Don't give Putin proof of his aggression triumphing over US opposition!

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

Continuing with Biden leads Ds to join Rs in telling voters "ignore what you've seen, just believe your Party Leaders." Experts may ponder how a new D candidate could change chances of Ds winning. But democracy surely fails if both major parties tell voters to deny truth.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

@k_sonin @caseybmulligan Thanks, Konstantin. The question is, Casey, even after Trump blatantly ordered a Georgia official to stuff ballots and sent a mob against Congress, do you still support him for supreme executive power in America? If not here, then where would you draw the line?

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

6 years

What really causes America's chronic deficit in international trade? <> Not trade barriers, but the desire of foreigners to invest in America.

What really causes America’s chronic deficit in international trade

A fundamental error that seems to motivate the Trump administration’s policy on international trade was starkly articulated on Firing Line recently by Peter Navarro, the President’s ass…

econciv.wordpress.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

@cepr_org @YGorodnichenko @bweder @B_Eichengreen @TDeryugina @Mylovanov @gerardrolanducb @TorbjornBecker I hope that this report will seriously consider the appropriate role of local governments in planning and directing reconstruction of Ukraine.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

...Correction: our discussion about Russia's War on Ukraine was recorded on March 16, 2022. You can watch it at

A Conversation on Russia's War on Ukraine

ClassACT HR73 hosted an in depth conversation about the Russian war against Ukraine. Noted historian and former Washington Bureau Chief for Newsweek Evan Tho...

www.youtube.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 years

How does market socialism in China resemble federalism in America? This was discussed at the Institute for New Structural Economics in Beijing; see <>.

On the Secret to the Development of Great Nations

[Remarks prepared for remote delivery at the 7th international workshop of the Institute for New Structural Economics at Peking University in Beijing, China, on 15 Dec 2020] I am glad to join in th…

econciv.wordpress.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

@cepr_org @YGorodnichenko @bweder @B_Eichengreen @TDeryugina @Mylovanov @gerardrolanducb @TorbjornBecker On the importance of including local governments in planning and directing reconstruction of Ukraine, see also

Reconstruction assistance for Ukraine should include local governments

A basic lesson from the Marshall Plan for postwar reconstruction of Europe in 1948 was that foreign reconstruction assistance can be much more effective when it helps to promote reforms that will b…

econciv.wordpress.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

5 years

Even Harry Reid now argues that Senators should abolish the filibuster <>. I agree; see <>. The real reason why Senators have maintained the filibuster is because it makes the Senate more important than the House of Representatives.

Senators should abolish the filibuster

The Senate filibuster has done much harm and little good in the history of our country. It was long used to defend local policies of racial injustice, and in recent years it has contributed to a le…

econciv.wordpress.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

5 years

A new note about the Dilemma of Presidential Impeachment: <> The bottom line is a suggestion for the Senate to send the Impeachment Articles back to the House for further investigation, admonishing the President to cooperate fully with this investigation.

The Dilemma of Presidential Impeachment

“Impeachment, though it is a fine ceremony, and though it may have been useful in the seventeenth century, is not a proceeding from which much good can now be expected. Whatever confidence ma…

econciv.wordpress.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

@caseybmulligan @k_sonin When he can violate Constitutional rules (send mob against Congress, press officials to stuff ballots) and still wield supreme power, steps to establish intimidation of opposition are straightforward; but I will not outline them on X. "Day 1" not literally, Hitler took weeks.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

Stabilization Lessons From The British Empire When Britain had a potent global operation for foreign political stabilization, its interventions were directed by a decentralized team of district officers who engaged with local political realities.

Stabilization Lessons from the British Empire - Texas National Security Review

Failures of costly state-building missions in places like South Vietnam and Afghanistan have created a widespread belief that foreign interventions cannot stabilize fragile states. However, a review...

tnsr.org

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

I agree with @ezraklein . I don't know what's best for Democrats' chances of winning in November, but both major parties' leaders demanding blind obedience would be worst for democracy in America.

New York Times Opinion

@nytopinion

4 months

The Democratic Party is realizing it must act, says @ezraklein . If Biden steps aside, it has two options: a coronation or a contest. And the party needs a contest.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

My review of Keith Mines's important book "Why Nation-Building Matters" is included in an outstanding new issue of PRISM at

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

On March 21, I had the privilege of joining Mark Cancian and Evan Thomas in a conversation about Russia's War on Ukraine. See

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

6 months

@edenhofer_jacob The title "Problems of credible strategic conditionality in deterrence" may seem technical, but I wrote this paper in 2018 to try to correct some basic misconceptions about effective deterrence that we heard in statements from the Trump administration.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

7 years

Solving the Korean crisis with game theory, at

Solving the Korean crisis with game theory

People have asked me whether game theory can offer any insights for finding a solution of the North Korean nuclear crisis. Let me suggest that the answer may be Yes, as I will try to explain here i…

econciv.wordpress.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

@caseybmulligan @k_sonin Telling an official who supervises elections to "find 11780 votes" can be described, in plain English, as a request for ballot stuffing. I have openly criticized decisions of a candidate whom I supported, but I am still waiting to hear where you'd draw the line, @caseybmulligan .

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

This week's local elections in Northern Ireland should show what political cost the DUP has paid for obstructing regional government since 2022. Then people should ask whether the remedy may be to devolve more responsibility to local governments:

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

@Mylovanov Yes, and let me note one other similar case: Just as Americans have accepted since 1815 that Canada is not part of the US, so Russians must accept that Ukraine is not Russia.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

3 years

The Special Inspector General on Afghan Reconstruction reminds us today that "declining to prepare [for future stabilization missions] after Vietnam did not prevent the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; instead, it ensured they would become quagmires."

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

4 months

@caseybmulligan As you know, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was written after our 2021 letter, the point of which was both to encourage Congress to fund public investments for economic capacity-building and to encourage public support for an act that did so.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

5 years

I did an interview with Chicago television station WGN about taxes in Illinois The original paper is at

Higher taxes don’t make residents more likely to leave Illinois, Nobel winner says

CHICAGO — As Illinois prepares to decide whether to change its tax structure to a graduated income tax, imposing higher taxes on higher earners, many are concerned about the potential impact. Some …

wgntv.com

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

@ECB_Research @ecb You can also read the slides for the full #JeanMonnetLecture at

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

@PearsonInst Northern Ireland's local elections will be on Thursday, 18 May 2023. People will be voting to elect local councils in 11 districts and boroughs.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

1 year

@ClassACTHR73 Sorry, let me repeat. Defense was 7.3% of GDP in 1980s, 5.3% in 1990s. So America spent 2.0% of GDP to block Russia's threats before 1989. Now we spend 0.3% of GDP on blocking Russia in Ukraine.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 months

@russianforces @k_sonin @ZelenskyyUa @Mylovanov @ProSyn "Russians" here meant "the Russian people outside the Kremlin". Reaching them past the Kremlin's propaganda wall will be difficult but not impossible.

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Roger Myerson

@rbmyerson

2 years

@QUBelfast has held an outstanding #Agreement25 conference. The text of my talk is at

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