With equity markets at all-time high, can a system be built that can move in/out of equity based on momentum? Such a system, called 'Dual Momentum' has been implemented in US. We tested whether such a strategy can work in India. Results look promising.
(1/n) For large-cap equity exposure, there is simply no better way to invest than using Index funds. I am not going to bore you with the active versus passive theory - lets just look at some basic data. The below table shows the 10 year return performance of large-cap funds,
(1/n) Read our detailed and exclusive review of the soon to be launched UTI Nifty 200 Momentum 30 Index Fund ("Fund"). This product is a unique offering in the Indian mutual fund landscape and we have looked at its various risk-return characteristics.
@ARanganathan72
After 5 years (college + masters in Eco) of being bombarded by Marxist ideas, fortunately bumped into Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman's path breaking PBS TV series - Free to Choose, filmed in 1980. Life was never the same again
@gurjota
@ActusDei
I see that we often ignore SOR completely in our retirement computations. Since ideas are best explained through stories, I drafted a story with acutal data to highlight that if we dont factor in SOR, we will grossly underestimate required corpus.
(1/n) We
@CFASocietyIndia
are delighted to host a talk between
@wbmosler
(co-developer of Modern Monetary Theory) and Dr. Anantha Nageswaran (Member, PMEAC). I am looking forward to moderating the discussion on a very pertinent topic.
Register here:
(1/3) SMS sent by
@PaytmMoney
to its investors - "To remain compliant with SEBI regulations on Paytm Money Direct Mutual Fund platform, update KYC & open FREE Demat a/c before 25th July, 2022"
Which SEBI regulation requires Direct MF investors to open a Demat a/c?
(1/n) We are super-delighted to launch
@team_samasthiti
Weekly Market Tracker! There is hardly any option for investors to track different market-related indicators in one single place and our Weekly Market Tracker solves exactly this problem.
(1/n) I recently wrote on why SIPs DO NOT reduce the risk of investing in equities. Data shows that SIPs fail to transform equity into a non-volatile asset class. Yet most investors start an SIP with expectations that it will enhance return or reduce risk
Excited to be at the
@CFASocietyIndia
'Masters at Work: Investing Frameworks that Win' conference at the beautiful city of Kolkata. Looking forward to some invigorating discussion with a great line up of speakers!
@MazzucatoM
Imagine explaining to a Martian how, on Earth, compensation of grown men kicking a ball around a pitch is regulated to below that of heart surgeons and teachers by technocrats and commissars who decide the price of everything. Odd.
@ShamikaRavi
Maybe we are comparing apples to oranges - both South Korea (in second half of twentieth century) and China example of authoritarian regimes whereas India is a liberal democracy. We never had a strongman like Deng or Park! (Not wishing for one either, freedom is precious)
Warren Buffett on making a "risky" investment into troubled and unrated bonds of Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS). This was in 1985. Still relevant today. At his cheeky best!
Delighted to receive this from an institution that I have tremendous respect and gratitude for. An institution that moulded me, gave me confidence and where I made life long friends. Thank you
@TTDSVCDU
and all my teachers 🙏🙏🙏
@gurjota
@ActusDei
Hello Gurjot. Thanks for your detailed analysis, it was nice to go through it. I would like to humbly point out that we need to factor in Sequence of Return (SOR) risk when drawing such illustrations. My first paper on retirement had a brief on it
Ravi Saraogi: Irrespective of the method used to pay the special dividend, it would be a mistake to treat the transfer as a windfall gain for the government
Excited to be speaking at the SEBI sponsored forthcoming
@TIA_Investors
event on the topic "What is the Safe Withdrawal Rate for a Retirement Portfolio in India?"
As this is a SEBI sponsored event, it's OPEN for the public. If you are in Chennai, do drop by, details below 👇
(7/n) Apart from a couple of large-cap funds who have displayed some stability in their ranks, the general story is that today's winners are tomorrow's laggards. The only rank consistency on display is that funds that perpetually rank lower, continue to do so!
Wishing Dr. VAN all the best and hearty congratulations on his appointment as the new Chief Economic Advisor to the Govt. of India. It was an honour for us at the
@CFASocietyIndia
to host him for a scintillating talk on the Global Economy a few years back!
(1/n) A recent Settlement Order by SEBI has throws light on the question of who can provide model portfolios for investment purposes. In the said Order, SEBI has prohibited a registered Research Analyst (RA) from providing model portfolios to clients.
👇 Coverage of my study titled "Computing the Safe Withdrawal Rate for a Retirement Portfolio in India" by
@livemint
. The study makes the case for using a lower rate than the traditionally used 4% withdraw rate from a retirement portfolio. Full paper here
How much can you withdraw from a corpus to make it last 30 years? A study by
@ravisaraogi
suggests that this rate is just 3% on a 40:60 debt equity portfolio. As in for 1 crore corpus, 1st year is 3 lakh, second year is 3.15 lakh (assuming 5% inflation) and so on. Why?
BAFs have emerged as a popular MF category, particularly now when equity markets are at an all time high and debt returns at cyclical low. However, BAFs are not all-purpose funds as they are made out to be. Read below for my views on this product alongside other expert views 👇
Delighted to share my write-up published in the Mint. The original title was "We should stop using the word bubbles - they don't exist". Expectedly, the editors found the title too scandalous :) Hope you enjoy reading it and would love to hear your view!
Sharing my
@livemint
write up on the expected changes in direct MF platforms. Recent events signal important changes in the way such platforms will operate in the future. Read below for the full details. Thanks
@maulik_madhu
@ActusDei
for carrying this.
(1/n) In 2006, while pursuing my graduation in economics, I picked up Tom Friedman's book – "The world is flat." To a young impressionable mind, it left a deep impact. I remember thinking globalization is an unstoppable force. How wrong I was!
@_nirajshah
Next time you shop for something, withdraw cash and pay. You will feel a pinch. Or use debit card and see the SMS of lower bank balance. All the cashbacks/reward points/creds will be pennies compared to the money you will save by thinking twice before spending.
Great story on FIRE! One of the best things you will read on this topic since this article carries actual numbers that help immensely in demystifying what it takes to FIRE.
@ActusDei
@sashindnj
Many people dream of Financial Independence and Retire Early (FIRE). Today
@sashindnj
documents the stories of actual FIRE people and gives us some calculations by
@ravisaraogi
on how much you need to save. A fantastic read!
#FIRE
(4/n) The story remains the same if we look at the performance over the last one year. None of the large-cap funds benchmarked to Nifty 50 managed to beat the index, with a very small number of funds benchmarked to Nifty 100 beating their benchmark.
1/n Delighted to share my "Why Not Mint Money"
@HTSmartcast
podcast with
@SatyaSontanam
. We discuss the important finding that taking duration risk is debt mutual funds does not translate to higher returns. Do give it a listen!
@ActusDei
Interactive session between
@ananthng
and Dr. Anantha. Dr. Anantha mentioned that he looks forward to reading two columns for illumination - one is that of
@ananthng
, and the other is
@andymukherjee70
#ifis2019
@MebFaber
@barronsonline
Reminds me of the brilliant words by
@nntaleb
- "Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have – or don't have – in their portfolio.” If we do this, 90% of financial forecasting nonsense will be eliminated.
#skininthegame
Just 1 day to go!
We are excited to meet you at the India Alternative and Quant
#investing
#summit
tomorrow at 8:30 am! Here is what your day would look like.
AMCs have started sending out communiques to prevent run on their credit funds due to Franklin closing down 6 debt funds. The sequence of risk in a credit fund is, first, liquidity risk, and then, credit risk. Redemption pressure can get very murky for entire credit fund category
(1/n) A brief thread based on my write-up on why ideas like using household gold or forex reserves for financing India's stimulus bill do not make any sense. Even the suggestion of printing currency cannot help the government
Sorry, but the 4% rule does not work for India!
@rajanraju26
Our detailed research on this - ….
@EconomicTimes
Retirement planning: What is the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals?
(5/n) If we look at the proportion of large-cap funds under-performing their benchmarks across different time periods (10 year, 7 year, 5 year, 3 year and 1 year), a clear trend emerges highlighting the vanishing of alpha in large-cap funds.
From the minutes of SEBI's board meeting today. I have always wondered on the irony of distributors calling themselves "Independent Financial Advisors (IFA)." Never thought this would come through but it has- the term IFA can now only rightfully be used by Registered Advisers!
(2/n) Ramdeo's session: How often have we heard about the power of compounding? Here are some numbers yo reflect on: Difference between 10 and 30 years is not 3x but 87x. Buffet's 22% CAGR over 58 years grew capital at 85,000x !
#maw
@monikahalan
Wrote a detailed post on this topic. On how endowment policies fail on both objectives - insurance cover provided is low and returns are paltry. By trying to do two things, endowment products do neither.
@FI_InvestIndia
I see there are many comments on how much can be withdrawn with a step-up to account for inflation.
@rajanraju26
and my detailed study throws light on how much can be safely withdrawn each year from a retirement portfolio without exhausting it prematurely
(1/n) It's been 2 years since we launched Samasthiti- a platform that provides financial planning services to all. We want to take this opportunity thank our clients and well-wishers for their love and support. This is how we changed lives in 2021
@somyasethuraman
View of the majestic Kangchenjunga, the third highest mountain in the world, as seen from my home in Darjeeling today morning. Beautiful beyond words 🏔️
@SUBHOFNH
@somyasethuraman
(3/n) If we repeat this exercise and look at the performance over the last 5 years, the results are staggering. Out of a total of 27 large-cap funds, 24 funds under-performed their benchmarks, i.e., close to 9 0% of the funds under-performed.
"Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high....Where words come out from the depth of truth...Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake" 🙏
#HappyIndependenceDay
@somyasethuraman
Quoted in a very interesting
@livemint
study by
@rohatgi_akshat
on Trigger SIPs. The data very succinctly highlights the utter uselessness of Trigger SIPs.
You can read the full article here,
@ActusDei
(1/n) A short thread on a recent piece I wrote for
@livemint
. Over the past few weeks, several investors have expressed their anguish to me regarding the correction in the equity markets.
@monikahalan
(6/n) The odds are disproportionately against you if you would still like to pick an active large-cap fund. Even if you look at past winners and try to identify a good active large-cap fund, the lack of rank consistency makes the job hard.
Looking forward to this session tomorrow at the Amity Business School with
@somyasethuraman
. Its always exciting to interact with students who always have fresh perspectives to offer on the important topic of money management.
Delighted to have contributed to India's first online course on impact investments, created by
@ashaimpact
&
@JSiEin
. Watch me discuss the strong need for debt in the impact space. Do register and spread the word, first batch starts 17 Dec
#ImpactInvesting
@dmuthuk
@sumit0409
Agree. However, consistent performance means delivering 20% +/- 3%. How can a business be so consistent as to throw out 20% each and every quarter?
Note-
1) Data is as of May 2021
2) Data is for Regular plans
3) Large-cap funds have been clubbed into two categories i) funds benchmarked to Nifty 50 or BSE Sensex, and ii) funds benchmarked to Nifty 100 or BSE 100
(2/n) Some funds have chosen their benchmark as Nifty 50 and some as Nifty 100 (see note 3 at the end). Out of the total of 24 funds, 14 funds under-performed their chosen benchmark. Thus, more than half the funds under-performed.
Over what turned out to be a spectacular two hour discussion, Dr Anantha covered a range of issues facing the global economy and the challenges ahead. Summarising key observations below:
@CFASocietyIndia
@IFMR_Official
@kreauniversity
Do mark your calendars for this Green Asset Backed Securitization webinar with a fantastic line up of speakers including
@anshgupta64
and
@Sandeep65555045
Promises to be a great discussion!
SBI Bluechip Fund is a mammoth fund - its the second largest large-cap fund with a corpus of more than INR 32,000 crores. It's since inception return is lower (slightly) than Nifty BeES. 15 years of active management and nothing to show!
Join us for an interactive session with Prof. Pattabiraman, the man behind the absolutely brilliant and popular personal finance blog
@FreeFinCal
@dvaratrust
@_NorthernArc
Do read
@AaratiKrishnan
's brilliant note on the great Indian retirement challenge. Retirement is indeed a tough nut to crack, but having the right data helps.
Aarati quotes
@rajanraju26
and my study on retirement withdrawal rates.
Don't miss 👇
Indians may need over 33 times their annual expenses at the age of 60, to retire. That's higher than the 25 times used in US. This is the key implication of a new paper by Rajan Raju and
@ravisaraogi
which puts the safe withdrawal rate at 3% 1/n
Weekly Market Tracker:
•The most widely anticipated event last week was Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Well, it seems like Powell decided to celebrate Halloween 😱 a little earlier!
Delighted to share my first podcast with
@the_hindu
and the incisive
@samzsays
. We discussed a broad range of issues surrounding last week's interest rate hike by RBI.
Tune in as we discuss the transmission of changes in repo rate to lending rates vs fixed deposits rate. We..
In this week's
#InFocusPodcast
, Ravi Saraogi speaks to
@samzsays
on the implications of the
#RBI
rate hike from the consumer’s point of view, and the impact it will have on the housing market.
Do register for this upcoming Do-it-yourself (DIY) workshop where
@anishteli
will be taking us through the process from scratch of building your own portfolio of momentum stocks. For those interested in factor investing, time to get your hands dirty!
Have you registered yet?
Register now & book your seat for this upcoming webinar on " Smart Beta Investing – Momentum Factor " ft.
@anishteli
Mod:
@ravisaraogi
29th July | 5:30 pm onwards
#Webinar
Always special to receive a book gift, particularly when the book comes recommended with two illustrious central bankers - YV Reddy and Mervyn King! Thank you
@CFASocietyIndia
#NewYear2021
Looking forward to hear this awesome lineup of
#WomenInFinance
speak at
@CFASocietyIndia
Chennai event on 8th March (details below). Today is the last day for registration, you don't want to miss this!
@paulkrugman
Its incorrect to suggest that Bernanke's work sidelines Friedman's monetarism. Bernanke builds on monetarism rather than sidelines it. From Bernanke's paper you have referenced 👇
Any discussion on FIRE or Retirement Corpus always turns out to be controversial, but I am glad
@ActusDei
did this very nice explainer on what could be your corpus requirement for achieivng financial independence
@team_samasthiti
Want your FIRE number? Annual expenses * no of years of retirement. That easy! Thumb rule works even considering effect of inflation & returns (they mostly cancel out). If you want a more sophisticated measure, refer to Ravi Saraogi's table at the bottom.
There is a large scale transformation happening in China (look at the blue box below). Only in China can such a transformation be undertaken without major upheavals, due to the unique characteristic of Chinese form of government.
@CFASocietyIndia
#ifis2019
Delighted to share the coverage in BusinessStandard of my co-authored study on retirement planning. We
@team_samasthiti
have been using these findings in designing robust retirement plans. If you would like us to build one for you, leave us a note,
@Sanjay__Bakshi
@ThomasSowell
My personal favorite
@ThomasSowell
quote, apt for those advocating soak-the-rich policies: "I have never understood why it is 'greed' to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money."
Sharing my write up on why the change in taxation for debt MFs, which will now be taxed like FDs, is based on flawed arguments. Debt funds and FDs are different products and there is no case for tax-parity between them.
@team_samasthiti
We are seeing some risks in the divergence between stock market performance and real economy. Globally as well as in India - Dr Anantha
@CFASocietyIndia
#ifis2019