I'm super excited to announce that my debut book, 'The 80-20 Money Makeover: A Simple Yet Powerful System to Transform Your Financial Future' is getting published by Harper Collins India and is now up for pre-order on Amazon! 😃
Happy investing :)
1/n Are Small caps in a bubble?
Here is a quick summary of our 5-Lens Framework to evaluate small Caps where the attempt is to try and "see the elephant"
Are Small caps in a bubble? (Mar-2024 Update)
Here is a quick summary thread of our 5-Lens Framework to evaluate small caps where the attempt is to try and "identify the elephant"
Source: FundsIndia
Market Outlook:
Conversation with my wife (runs a Brownie chain)
Will you sell me your entire business for 30% lower compared to last month because of Coronavirus?
Her response: What bullshit!
Me: Which is why we are buying Equities now :)
U and ur friend are pitch drunk. He decides to drive back. U think its risky and take an uber. Unfortunately ur uber meets with an accident. But ur friend somehow drives back home safe.
Who took a better decision?
Outcome is not always representative of the quality of decision!
Building the first Rs 1 crore is the hardest. Incrementally, every crore gets a lot easier.
Why?
Simple Math...
1 to 2 cr requires 100% returns (6 years at 12% CAGR)
2-3 cr requires 50% returns (3.5 yrs)
3-4 cr requires only 33% returns (<3 years)
Eventually at 10 cr, the
If I can be financially free by 45, I won't really care if I beat Nifty or not.
All I really need is someone who can push me to save more regularly, give a sense of where I am and check if I am on track, and just keep me invested through tough times without making big mistakes.
My Equity SIP Experiment - A Personal Account of Investing over the Last 5 years...
What was the plan?
Start. Keep it Simple. Be Patient.
But does this work?
Let's find out...
Money is about having options - to have control over
1) What do you want to do today
2) Who do you want to do it with
3) How long do you want to do it
4) Where do you want to do it
@morganhousel
Your investment success will finally boil down to your ability to
(1) save and invest on a regular basis
(2) not sell during a panic
(3) say no to the latest fad in a bull market
(4) stay patient
Right now even if I have the best shoe on earth I won't be able to complete a marathon. I need to train myself for endurance before I worry about the shoe.
Before you worry about the best fund, start to save >30% of salary and invest consistently every month for the next 10 yrs
Why is it extremely difficult to exit and enter back equities sidestepping a fall?
All falling markets have several false upsides and similarly recoveries have several false downsides.
To identify which is the real one is only possible in hindsight!
10-20% temporary falls happen almost every year.
In the last 44 years, there were only 4 years where the intra-year fall was less than 10%.
Last year was one of these four years!
1) Time is an underrated investment strategy.
Investing in Indian Equities with a 7 year time frame has historically led to a good experience.
But what about periods where 7 year returns were subpar?
Celebrating 100 blog posts. Thank you everyone for the love and support. Indebted forever..
Find my latest blog post..
Enduring long term investing, one movie at a time
1/4
Thumb rule to understand Inflation: RULE of 2
In India, Inflation historically has been around 7%.
Boring Stat!
Here is what this really means -
Our COSTS DOUBLE EVERY 10 YEARS!
So if our money doubles in the next 10 years, we are still at square one!
While I have no clue when the next bear market is coming, going by history, a fall in the range of 30-60% can be expected once or twice every 7-10 years.
1/n Indian equity markets are close to their previous all-time highs.
It’s normal to feel uneasy and think they might drop. To add to this unease - the last few times the markets fell 10-15%, after hitting all-time highs.
What should you do?
Time for a thread🧵
Dream come true! What started as a simple blog to share my frameworks, mistakes & learnings has now translated into a book - puts together 13 yrs of real life learnings & provides a simple practical playbook based on behavioral science to build wealth :)
You had started investing your monthly savings into Indian equities convinced about the India long-term story & the benefits of automating your investments via SIP.
But now after two long years, your Equity SIP returns (Nifty 50) is a paltry 2%!
What should you do?
Jargon: Power of Compounding
What it means to you: 8-4-3-2 rule
30K SIP @ 12% returns ->
🥱 First 50 lakhs takes 8 long years...
😁 Second 50 lakhs takes only 1/2 the time at 4 years!
😆 Third 50 lakhs takes 3 years!
😎 Fourth 50 lakhs takes just 2 years!!
This is a masterclass on debt mutual fund investing by Suyash Choudhary - IDFC MF. Personally learnt a lot from this interaction. Do give it a listen :)
While everyone is going berserk calling this a crash, here is a gentle reminder from the last 44 years on what 'equities are volatile' really means..
Temporary declines of 10-20% are as regular as birthdays—you should actually be surprised when they don't occur.
The markets
Always a pleasure to listen to EA Sundaram - extremely articulate + simple time tested investment approach.
Several decades of experience compressed into this presentation. Well worth your one hour.
Fascinating Data from DSP Netra
@SahilKapoor
Despite Japanese equity markets going through a bear market for decades, the 30 Year SIP Real Returns for Japan is pretty close to the best markets - US & Indian Equity markets!
Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 and over that period the fund returned a whopping 29% annual return.
Guess the return of his average investor?
The latest Wealth Conversations is out!
A simple visual curation of (really) long term investment insights to help you become a better investor.
Skip this if you are looking for yet another monthly update presentation on what happened to the market.
This was a conversation I really enjoyed.
Watch
@KalpenParekh
, CEO of DSP Mutual Fund share with us his thoughts on Investment Frameworks, Evaluating Fund Performance, Portfolio Construction, Active vs Passive, Asset Allocation etc
An interesting video on the coffee can approach..AMCs can try similar videos with fund managers explaining their thought process and philosophy. Will help to shift focus from returns (not under control) to investment process (under control)
Notes to Self:
When a mid/small cap buy call is given by a fundhouse, check if the trend of mid/small cap exposure in their multicap fund also confirms the view!
If no, it's either a size constraint or lack of conviction in the view.
A Quick Thread:
Temporary market falls of 10-20% happen almost every year and large 30-60% falls can be expected once every 7-10 years.
Anytime there is a market fall, this also pulls down your existing SIP returns.
Here is how different falls impact a 12% & 15% SIP return
Happy to share the September 2022 edition of Wealth Conversations!
Our monthly visual curation of long term wealth creation insights covering different asset classes from an Indian perspective.
A sneak peak at one of my favourite slides...
SCALE Framework
1) Saving more > Returns in early part of career
2) Cycles matter
3) Asset Allocation > Security selection
4) Less is more - Few good decisions + Fund managers
5) Expense - lower the better
Did you know?
Despite the Indian equity markets having intra-year declines every year, 35 out of 44 years actually ended with positive returns!
For more such interesting insights, check out the latest edition of FundsIndia Wealth Conversations!
Happy Investing :)
Here is a framework that we have consistently applied over the last 4 years to evaluate all time highs.
Helped us cut through the noise and focus on what really matters (earnings, valuations and sentiment).
When you are tempted to shift to a new fund,
You are lured by the 3/5 year performance as on today
But instead look at what was the 3/5 year performance, going back 3/5 years (when you should have actually invested to get the current returns)
You will have your Eureka moment!
My first book 'The 80-20 Money Makeover' has crossed 50+ reviews on Amazon with a 4.7 star rating 😄
Thanks a ton everyone for the love and support 🙏
It took me 4 years to write this book and distills all my real life learnings of the last 14+ years. I promise it will add a
How am I reducing my portfolio volatility?
I haven't checked my portfolio returns for almost a month :)
Automated SIPs simply get executed with no emotions.
Got another 20-25 years more to go. My future savings still account for 85% of my portfolio!
There is always a reason to sell Indian Equities..
If markets go up, the reason is 'all time highs'.
If markets go down, the reason is 'Bad News + the fall looks like the start of a large crash'
Staying Invested is hard.
Image Inspiration: riholtz wealth
Some learnings from past few months:
1) Handling bear markets finally boils down to psychology
2) Having a pre-defined what if things go wrong plan (when to invest + how much to invest + where to invest) creates the much needed 'feeling of control'
If you had to invest in equity mutual funds today, which funds would you choose?
You will naturally choose a few funds (say 5 funds) with the highest past performance (say 3-year performance).
But have you ever wondered what the ranking of these funds were 3 yrs back?
A simple behavioral trick to navigate temporary declines:
80% Rule
Whenever you check, imagine your equity portfolio value at 80% of your recent equity portfolio peak value.
As long as your portfolio value is above this, consider it to be 'NORMAL'!
Why 20%? 👇
Equity SIPs have delivered good returns over the long term...
But why do most of us give up midway?
This is because we are not prepared for the three punches that an Equity SIP delivers in the initial years!
Here is what you need to know 👇
1/n
A few years down the line, when you see good returns from equities, you will think making money is easy.
Remember those returns are made by those who invest now and you know how painful it is.
Whether you invest or not, do remember - It is simple but never easy!