Pikagi
Portsea Capital Profile
Portsea Capital

@portseacapital

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tech/consumer takes. I write longer form thoughts in my newsletter

NYC
https://t.co/kW2I0XCY5C
Joined March 2021
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
17 days
Latest out in the usual spot. Mentions $ADBE, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META, $NVDA, $AVGO. I discuss outcome based pricing in software and run some numbers on customer service, what openAI's newest subs price means for the ecosystem, and nvidia's customers trying to move away from them.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
supposedly Citadel's head of commodities is bringing home $1bn+ a year 🤯
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 months
$META ROIC on content algo capex from bernstein
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
AI companies right now
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
Bernstein breaking down $GOOG search revenue and probabilities/economics of DOJ case outcomes $AAPL. Not clear it's a win-win.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
just put in my notice with nothing lined up. taking the plunge and moving to nyc from oz to steepen my learning curve. for background I have 6yrs exp doing LO equities. would appreciate any public markets leads and retweet for visibility. hope to connect w more nyc based folks 🙏
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
GLP-1 users dinner of choice and what they can no longer stand
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
CS on best and worst performing factors in Software over the last 15 years
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
$SE reverse DCF by Bernstein. $55 assumes 4.1% GMV cagr to 2030 (ASEAN mkt share drops from 45% to 24%), 5.4% group revenue cagr and ~flat to down EBITDA margins.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 months
one of my old PMs once told me two of the most dangerous words in investing are 'never' and 'always' and to steer clear of using them. surprised Elliot has come out with so much conviction in this.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
narrative violation: $GOOG gained search engine market share in Q1
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
i don't know anymore than the next analyst in re: to what $GOOG search looks like in the future w AI emb'd but it's prob helpful to keep an open mind vs speak in absolutes. they only monetise about 20% of queries and these were the top 10 in Sept 2018 per the antitrust trial..
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
Call me a lazy LO but I enjoyed the days where people debated long term unit economics instead of the sustainability of quarterly 1-2pt acceleration/deceleration based on alt data 😥
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
US Digital Wallet Market Share. Stablecoins are a distraction. $PYPL $AAPL $SHOP
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
i'm of the belief that cheap internet stocks don't work until mkt share losses stabilise (eg $JD, $BABA, $PYPL). 2024 will be a pivotal year for $SE. mkt share stabilising (gain, even), competition rationalising/consolidating while gaming has bottomed and fintech penetrates txns.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
put in 7-day case study, multiple interviews w/ positive feedback for a role. then ghosted w/ zero communication after being told to wait for next steps. unfortunately a common practice that needs to change. candidates deserve basic courtesy/closure after investing so much time.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
6 months
interestingly enough, SIs close to the project at Klarna that made headlines last month suggest most of the work could've been achieved 5 years ago without GenAI
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
Bernstein on restaurant GLP-1 winners and losers assuming wider & more accessible adoption of the drug (b/c it is expensive currently). Obesity levels are higher for consumers from lower income households + lower education levels.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
Temu with >$40 AOV in US means unit economics are now contribution profit positive. Bernstein comps selling on Temu vs Amazon for merchants and consumers. $PDD playbook to go from -100% to 60% operating margins.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 years
$VMEO at JPM tech conf - reiterating its 5yr 30%+ CAGR and LT EBITDA margins of 20%. Trading for ~16x sales doesn't seem too unreasonable for high growth SaaS.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Karl commenting on how coverage of $MSFT is forcing software analysts to become amateur semi analysts as more revenue starts to rely on GPUs that could be supply constrained. Interesting time for sellside and buyside TMT analysts. internet/ecommerce analysts (covering $AMZN)
@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
UBS calc on incremental AI rev for Azure (purely from renting out GPUs), representing 5-6 points of growth to CY23 Azure revenue. This assumes $MSFT receives its ~400k H100 allocation from $NVDA
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
Temu pricing vs Shopee in Philippines and Malaysia. Lack of a value proposition is leading to a drop in Temu downloads. Shopee is cheaper in most cases. Cross-border goods from China are less attractive when they're already cheap locally. $SE $PDD
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Thought this quote from BT at MoffettNathanson TMT conf on megacap vs small cap tech was interesting. “I don’t pay that much attention to small companies because of my view of Tech is not this continually disruptive force of companies replacing other companies..
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
take-rate comparison in southeast asia $SE $BABA. shopee increasing commissions across markets could indicate a rationalising competitive environment, from JPM
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Let’s run the counterfactual on 1. Say they cut prices to maintain share. This immediately lowers the TAM, creates a headwind for growth next year on pricing and destroys decades of building a reputation for having a premium product, all so the mgmt team can meet near term street
@kouroshshafi
Kourosh
@kouroshshafi
1 year
Adyen - two investor concerns
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
6 months
good report from bernstein on software + genAI implications after speaking to practitioners and leaders. demand is real but progress is slow and will have a modest impact until 2025 onwards. even though co-pilot is being purchased, there is a gap between it and actual adoption.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
$LULU is going to be fine. inventory slightly elevated but it's not like their stuff is seasonal. lots of classics that don't often go on sale. they can clear it if they want to. margins prob elevated atm. quality is > alo (and alo is more expensive). intl growing like a weed.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
UBS calc on incremental AI rev for Azure (purely from renting out GPUs), representing 5-6 points of growth to CY23 Azure revenue. This assumes $MSFT receives its ~400k H100 allocation from $NVDA
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
$WISE upgrading FY23 guidance again. Revenue growth of 68-72% from 55-60% previously and adjusted EBITDA margins in H2 to be higher than the 22% margin in H1. What a special fintech co.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Time to hang it up, this is peak twitter for me. It can’t get any better than this - hope this wasn’t an accident.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
You guys thought European energy was bad? Let me present to you US software
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@s_nav123
A S
@s_nav123
11 months
Good morning Europe! @ToffCap
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
$meta and the other app are dead
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
For those hoping that unemployment ticks up for a fed pivot - $ADSK and $PCOR have both said that their customer's biggest bottlenecks are labor shortages. Backlogs are on fire but no supply to execute.. 1/3
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
Love how a tweet on $UNH never missing street numbers evolved into a massive debate on whether we go into a recession or not and the fed’s mandate
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
$META
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Digital ad expert with visibility into $1bn of budget says ROAS for $META is likely back to pre-ATT. Reels ramping with room on ad load and usage is generating incremental time spent. h/t UBS
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 month
1 year later 🥰🫡
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Who would’ve thought I’d see a generational buying opportunity in two of my stocks within a 12 month period coz of competitive pressures from tiktok and self inflicted wounds from mgmt
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
Good note on cost of inference from Bernstein. Helps to answer some of the Qs i've had on the economics of AI biz models that i've written abt. Most profitable is model as a service then SaaS depending on usage & revenue model. $MSFT co-pilot potentially making 50% gross margins
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
$META is still cheap. UBS has positive checks on ad performance, Advantage+ adoption and share gains. Combined with further cost reduction $13 2024 EPS is the floor imo. Paying <15x GAAP 2024 with top line to re-accel, including non-core RL losses.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
JPM's new estimates for $SE put it on 22x 2024E *Earnings* - yes you read that right.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
9 months
unpopular opinion: $CRM is a bigger AI winner than $ADBE
@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
9 months
$CRM the dark horse in application layer AI use cases. $NOW is up there, both ahead of $ADBE.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
oh yea we’re getting close. GPU rental company founded in 2017, last valued at $19bn and raised $10bn in equity and debt to date looking to IPO in first half 2025.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
this fcf vs eps debate is so dumb. there's a reason why accrual accounting exists. cash expenses are volatile but bring many yrs of use. fcfps growth is the best indicator for LT value creation but if you aren't normalising fcf for growth vs maintenance then you're doing it wrong
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
@corry_wang little accountability for underperformance is how we got here in the first place
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
New weekly post out. Link in bio. Mentions $MSFT, $CRM, $NOW, $ABNB, $GOOG, $SE, $ADYEN, $BABA, $PYPL. This week's a bit long, but I share my thoughts on the recent share price declines of Sea and Adyen and opportunity for long term investors. CEO Pieter van der Does once shared
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
GM
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
More thoughts on AI biz models in the app layer from @peterfenton that follows on from some of the other quotes in my latest weekly. Worth mentioning that these are coming from VCs/founders who need AI to be disrupting and not sustaining so that value doesnt accrue to incumbents
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
lord give me the confidence of a senior software dev requesting $400/hr on Tegus to opine on competitors and growth strategy
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Braintree as a loss leader is completely rational for $PYPL given ecomm button share losses. Not so sure the new CEO will take a different strategic direction, per Bernstein. $ADYEN
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
it’s actually been the establishment of an infrastructure… and the reason why I spend so much writing about the biggest companies is actually because they’re the only ones that matter”
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
9 months
Barclays on best predictor for revenue growth (billings, bookings or cRPO) for $CRM, $NOW and $WDAY
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
interesting report on AV impact to the rideshare market from WFC. can imagine the type of game theory discussions currently going on in $UBER and $LYFT board rooms. still a ways a way in to get a fully autonomous fleet deployed/capex spent but mkt will be discounting this sooner.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
We’re getting close
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
Interesting datapoints from Barclay’s AI VAR survey. Customers looking to spend 0-10% of IT budgets towards AI this year with most interest towards LLMs, Data Lakehouses, Apps. $MSFT, $CRM and $NOW co-pilots look to be most popular.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
Gaming has bottomed
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 months
SaaS investors are prob best to forget about sales efficiency levels in 2021 bc my dog could sell you a software subscription in 2021.
@ChipsAhoyCap
Chips Ahoy Capital
@ChipsAhoyCap
3 months
“For sales efficiency to return to 2021 levels, the average Saas company would have to cut S&M spend by 40% from today's levels while adding the same amount of net new ARR!” From @JaredSleeper latest deck making sense of the AI & SaaS debate. Highly recommend checking it out!
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
@FundamentEdge @wealth This was a decent pod related to it
Ilana Weinstein on the War for Talent at Hedge Funds

Episode · Masters in Business · Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks with Ilana Weinstein, who is founder and chief executive officer of The IDW Group LLC, an executive search firm focused on...

open.spotify.com
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Taiwan Ecomm market share and differentiation between players. Bern thinks $CPNG will be limited to K-product niche as incumbents already have low prices + fast delivery. Could be another Japan where they pull out after 2 yrs. $SE $8454
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
6 months
no view on whether hyperscaler capex plans are reasonable but worth remembering that not too long ago mgmt teams at covid beneficiaries were hiring aggressively and expanding capacity bc they over-extrapolated demand trends. they are human and suffer from the same biases we do
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
After seeing a few of these pitched, I think I agree with this.. anyone have a SotP thesis that's worked?
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
@_fabknowledge_ @TanArrowz am i doing this right
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
$PLTR needs to chill. This is a security guard. Next they’ll be hiring “sanitation engineers”
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
RBC on the waterfall of GenAI spend in IT budgets. not expected to hit software company numbers in a meaningful way until 2H25 ex $MSFT with front office software first within application saas, then back then vertical.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
New weekly out, link in bio. Mentions $NVDA, $MSFT, $INTC, $ARM, $INTU, $AMZN, $META, $NOW, $GOOG, TikTok, $SE. Big week of earnings but rather than breaking down the results Ill stick to the usual analysis. check out @borrowed_ideas and @heartbreakout for their earnings review.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
This from Wolfe gave good color on how $INTU will leverage their prop data with GenAI for customers. Other great pt was that they need to be careful on rolling out products due to the high bar for accuracy in compliance-based products. Have to use smaller LLMs and segregated data
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
Chinese ecommerce GMV growth. $BABA and $JD accelerating in 2024Q1
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
TIL that despite having almost 100% of revenues coming from the US, one of the top payment methods used at $RH is China Union Pay coz of overseas visitors furnishing their second homes in the states.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 months
This is what consensus has $AMZN capex at until 2030. much higher than $19bn a year on data centers and you could assume the mix becomes >50% given the ecomm logistics network is underutilised currently.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 months
>$100bn cld be interpreted as <$200bn (otherwise why wldn't they write >$200bn) which equates to $19bn/yr on average on data centers. slightly more than half of capex currently is spent on datacenters so implies $30bn run-rate as of Q1. that doesn't suggest much growth? $AMZN
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
working theory that this continues to impact software names this year. IT budgets being reallocated rather than NN so any spend going towards GenAI is money not spent elsewhere. companies w/o GAI offerings will see rev d/s. partly why software CEOs need to be vocal on offerings
@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
6 months
GenAI exuberance is distracting companies from spending on cloud migration and other digital initiatives
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
10 months
this last 100 has been a grind but we got there. I am greatly thankful to you all for putting in the time to read my thoughts🙏
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
GS sensitivity on impacts to $GOOG services EBIT if they lose antitrust and can no longer pay for default search w $AAPL. Assumes 45% of search ad rev is from Apple. For context they lost 60% of traffic 2yrs after Apple Maps default. (I wrote last week why this might be diff)
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
going through the $PYPL S1.. had no idea everyone was so young at the time.. super impressive
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 months
new post. Mentions $AMZN, $MSFT, $ACN, $META, Shein, $PDD. can't believe it's been a year since my first post. time has flown and a lot has changed. can't help but cringe over what i've previously written but i guess that means i'm growing. grateful to all you who have joined me!
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
6 months
new post, in bio. mentions $AAPL, $GOOG, TikTok, $UMG, $META, $MSFT, $ACN. i give some thoughts on the rumoured apple/gemini deal, tiktoks decline in the US, microsoft/inflection and accenture's comments on IT budgets from their latest earnings. thanks for reading!
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 years
@cap_zay
@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 years
$IAC stub trading at $2.4bn. JPM values Dotdash at $2.5bn *alone*. implies you get , Ask Media Group, Mosaic, Bluecrew, Vivian Health, The Daily Beast etc for free
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
6 months
read-through for ecommerce players in Southeast Asia and China. J&T express volumes in SEA were up 19% qoq (up 55% yoy) despite unfavourable seasonality while China volumes were up 46%.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
currently torn. On the one hand, Klaviyo s&m metrics and efficiency look good and are improving (thanks to PLG?), OTOH, Susan St Ledger joined the board in May 2023
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Ecommerce and retail performance diverging in Korea. Ecomm accelerated in July to 9.1% yoy (from 8% in June) while retail decelerated to 1.9% (from 3.5%). Ecomm penetration rate inching towards 40%. $CPNG
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
CIOs on software products they think they'll consume dramatically less / require far fewer seat licenses for
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
Im not good at selfpromo b/c it doesn't come naturally to me. My thinking has been if I write good content the views will come. I got decent engagement on this, but it has been my worst piece by views so I will repost and add a snippet. My thoughts on Reels monetization struggles
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
New weekly just published in the usual place. Mentions $MSFT, $GOOG, $NVDA, $BIDU, $META, Tiktok, $AMZN. Seems links/references to the SS website are being throttled pretty heavily...
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Fairly mediocre results from $WISE. FX + high-vol custs pull-fwd in demand + lower geo mix pressuring VPC in personal segment. +ve was business VPC + active cust growth. Co. also passing on more interest income back to custs so lower flow thru to income. Will test LT investors.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
3 years
$IAC stub trading at $2.4bn. JPM values Dotdash at $2.5bn *alone*. implies you get , Ask Media Group, Mosaic, Bluecrew, Vivian Health, The Daily Beast etc for free
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
16 days
when did this uptick start happening at $RDDT? have I been living under a rock? h/t Wigg @ MS
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
@justbrosef if three analysts are asking the same thing a different way there is something wrong lol
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
9 months
Lazada expected to cut 30% of staff across most markets - hitting customer care, marketing and commercial teams. $SE $BABA
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
@EugeneNg_VCap Wrote abt this in my post. Retention is in the top decile of apps, which is super impressive for its scale.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
amazon isn’t allowed to favourably list its own products coz it’s anticompetitive but this is totally fine 🤔
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Shopee express is quickly becoming one of the largest logistics players in Thailand and it’s profitable $SE h/t JPM
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
5 months
this $goog antitrust case isn’t looking too good…for $aapl. the $20bn in 100% margin rev share probably going lower after this verdict
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
most of these look like they can be auctioned off in a GenAI response. and if Google decides to give a direct answer to car insurance, who's to say an advertiser isn't prepared to pay more for that 1 response privilege if conversion increases?
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
7 months
ppl so focused on AI they forgot abt the bear case that will have real short/med/long term impacts for $goog
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
PCB design software company $ALU going from rule of 55 to 60 next year. Winning more deals in enterprise pushing up ARPU. Multi million $ deal from Renesas Electronics and other customers include $tsla, spaceX, $meta. Is it catching an AI bid?
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
interesting datapoints in UBS's Brazil Ecomm survey: 1. movements among the top 5 ex $MELI ( #1 ) (tho its score declined 3pts YoY). Shopee moved to #2 (from #5 ), ahead of Magalu ( #3 ) and Shein, which also improved significantly at #4 (previously # 7). Amazon was #5 (from #3 ).
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
Even Apple thought DuckDuckGo is better than Bing
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
$PDD EPS estimates for '24, '25, '26 revised up 40%, 17%, 17% across the street yet stock is up 8% from pre-ER. Temu looks to be close to break-even now with S&M down QoQ and GMs up QoQ. now trades at a similar multiple to $BABA and $JD, which bernstein feels is egregious.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
$GOOG $MSFT
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
4 months
btw my suspicion on why alo is more expensive but lower quality is coz they need to pay their influencers for marketing whereas lulu doesn't (and lulu is way bigger in scale). lulu also have their own patented fabrics etc. maybe margins come down if they decide to up the mkting.
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
2 years
Thesis is playing out. Reels is adding incremental time spent which paves the way for impressions growth. Combine that with pricing recovery as the format matures and you’ll get DD top-line growth medium term.
@_SeanDavid
Sean D. Emory
@_SeanDavid
2 years
I don't want to show this to the $META dooms-dayers, but Facebook and Instagram are gaining materially in terms of engagement. • TikTok flattened • Facebook +13% Y/Y • Instagram +15% Y/Y • Snap +2% (it was flat in Jan) • Twitter yuck
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
1 year
$LKNCY Luckin in Singapore
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@portseacapital
Portsea Capital
@portseacapital
11 months
some of the calcs here:
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